After Week 10 and the last of the byeweeks, we find ourselves 9 games in with 7 to play, just over halfway through the USFL’s third season and while there are some predictable situations, such as Michigan and Philadelphia’s success, the story of the year has been the rapid decline of both Tampa Bay and Birmingham and the equivalent rise of Chicago, Arizona and Los Angeles. The entire Eastern Conference has only 1 team with a winning record (Philadelphia), while the Western Conference has been seeing a lot of quality play. As we look ahead at the second half of the season, let’s explore what has surprised in this third season.
PHILADELPHIA (8-1)
The Stars have always been the class of the Atlantic Division, but this year they are looking like they have a legitimate chance at a top seed and perhaps a championship. We are 9 weeks in and they already have a 4 game lead over the closest division rival.
SURPRISE: Kelvin Bryant. The UNC project has always been a steady contributor, but this year he has been dominating the league. Perhaps it is due to some shifts on the O-line, or perhaps he is just maturing into the roll, but he is on pace for 1,900 yards and a possible MVP trophy.
OUTLOOK: While a 2nd half as strong as the first seems unlikely, we expect the Stars to easily win the division and be able to rest some starters ahead of the playoffs. Somewhere in the range of 12-13 wins seems very likely, and with no Southern Division Team above .500, the Stars should have home field until the Championship game in New Jersey (almost a home game as well.)
BOSTON (4-5)
The Breakers started the season 3-0 before reality set in and they lost 5 of 6 to reach their current status. The first full season with Tony Eason as starter at QB has not produced much offense. The Breakers are relying on a combination of defense and luck to win games, and that is not a long term solution. They are likely to switch to Matt Robinson at QB after their bye week, just to see if they can spark some offensive production.
SURPRISE: The production in the passing game. We expected Eason to have some bumps in the road, but this is a team with two very good wideouts (Franz and Lockett) and perhaps the league’s best receiving TE (former Bengal Dan Ross), so we expected far more than their 177 yards a game passing.
OUTLOOK: Unless the Robinson experiment proves more successful than anticipated, we see Boston fading down the stretch. They could still back into a playoff spot in the very odd Eastern Conference, but that is as far as we see the Breakers getting. This offseason may require a further investment in the pricey QB market.
WASHINGTON (3-6)
A lot of pundits thought this was the year that the Federals would challenge in the Atlantic, but an 0-4 start quickly wiped away the optimism in the nation’s capital. The Feds have won 3 of 5 since then, so there is a chance that the Feds will leapfrog Boston and may capture a Wild Card slot. They will need to be more consistent on offense, and find a more dependable pass defense to do so.
SURPRISE: Pass Defense. The Federals have talent in the secondary, but with the pass rush underperforming, they have simply not been able to contain the opposition passing game. Washington ranks 14th against the pass, averaging 277 allowed per game. In a passing league, that is a tough hurdle to clear.
OUTLOOK: We still like the combination of offensive talent and defensive grit on this squad, but coach Corso is going to need to find some answers in both areas if the Federals are going to get the 5 wins out of 7 which may be needed to snag a playoff berth.
NEW JERSEY (2-7)
The Generals are a team, and a franchise, in turmoil. They rank dead last in offense despite having All-USFL HB Herschel Walker and the dynamic rookie QB Doug Flutie. Flutie has been more flustered than fabulous so far this year, but we have seen flashes, including a stunning performance vs. Memphis. With an interim coach, no GM and rumors of players being shopped, this is a rough time to be a NJ General.
SURPRISE: Other than the house cleaning recently announced, the biggest surprise is just how bad New Jersey has been against the run. The Generals allow 124 yards a game, while only rushing for 80 yards a game. That formula won’t win you many games.
OUTLOOK: This is going to be a long season, with an interim coach, and with potential player trades as the Generals are clearly in a rebuilding frame of mind. Pride and professionalism will be needed from the players, because they will have little to play for beyond those values.
TAMPA BAY (4-5)
Yes, the Bandits are again in 1st place in the division, but 4-5 is not the record this franchise is used to. The Bandits still have a high octane offense (2nd in the league), and their defense is in the Top 10 in several categories, so what has the problem been? If you have a clear answer to that, I think Steve Spurrier would like to hear it, because he seems as perplexed as we do.
SURPRISE: The relative disappearance of Gary Anderson. Last season Anderson put together a string of games which had him in the MVP conversation, but this year his contribution seems to have been forgotten. Tampa will need to feed Anderson the ball more than they have so far if they hope to crawl above .500 and into possible division leadership.
OUTLOOK: Of all the teams below .500 at this point, we have the greatest faith in Steve Spurrier and the Bandits. This roster is too talented for them to languish around 8-8 at season’s end. We would not be surprised to see them rattle off a significant win streak, one highlighted by their win this week against the formerly undefeated Panthers, which can lead them back to the division title.
JACKSONVILLE (4-5)
While the Bulls appear to be in the mix in the Southern Division, their 4 wins have all come against teams with a losing record (2-7 NJ and Memphis, 3-6 Houston, and 4-5 Tampa, their best win of the year.) They will need to keep beating the weaker teams in the league as they hope to end the season above .500 and in the playoff mix.
SURPRISE: Rookie George Allen has been all the Bulls could have hoped for this year. His 617 yards after 9 games is well ahead of the pace their RB-by-committee managed last year. That balance takes some of the pressure off of Doug Williams and Gary Clark to chuck the ball on every play.
OUTLOOK: Offense will have to be the key to any late season run for the Bulls. Their defense is worst in the league against the run (132 yards a game) and is mediocre in other categories. As much as Doug Williams would love to share the burden, a lot will still come down to his ability to move the ball and score more than their opponents. But, with 8-8 being a reasonable playoff record this year, going 4-3 down the stretch is certainly within their range.
BIRMINGHAM (3-6)
What is happening at Legion Field this year? This is a Stallions team that looks very much like the squad that advanced all the way to the USFL Championship last year, and yet they are finding ways to lose game after game. Just recently they tried jumpstarting the offense by replacing the largely ineffective Cliff Stoudt with former starter Bob Lane, only to see Lane hurt and Stoudt right back at the helm. This is a perfect metaphor for the year, one in which the pieces simply are not fitting in place for Birmingham.
SURPRISE: Cliff Stoudt’s inability to protect the ball. Stoudt, who is known as a “play it safe” game manager has 9 interceptions on the year, which, along with some very poor 3rd down decisions, have simply made it tougher for the Stallions to win. Birmingham built a reputation as a blue collar, solid play, no mistakes kind of team. Not the flashy Bandit Ball or Panther offense, but a tortoise to their hares, slow and steady, and a big piece of that was Stoudt’s conservative approach. He needs to rediscover that side of his game.
OUTLOOK: There is still a lot of talent on this team, but unless they can stop shooting themselves in the foot, a return to 8-8 seems very unlikely. We expect them to get more wins this year, perhaps 3-4, but that won’t be enough to salvage a very disappointing season.
MEMPHIS 2-7
The Showboats have moments, sometimes entire games, where they look like worldbeaters, but these are almost always surrounded by less-inspired games. A lot of this seems to relate to Walter Lewis, who can dazzle with his arm or his legs, but who simply turns the ball over too much. Add a weaker than expected season from the defense, and real issues with run blocking, and you have a team spinning its steamwheels.
SURPRISE: The weak output of Marcus DuPree. DuPree was a monster in his one year at Oklahoma, but maybe that is because OU had a solid offensive line, and the Showboats do not. DuPree has fewer than 500 yards and likely will not crack 1,000 this year. We don’t entirely blame him, as the line is simply not opening up holes inside, but the young HB needs to find ways to get past the initial hit and find room at the second level.
OUTLOOK: Memphis will likely sneak up on some folks and get a couple of wins under their belts, but this certainly looks like another losing season in the Mid-South.
MICHIGAN (8-1)
Until the sudden uprising of the Bandits this week, Michigan was making yet another strong case for an undefeated season. They have a defense that allows only 15 points per game, while they average 11 more than that with their vertical game and solid running game. Hebert remains the key to their success, but they have won, and can continue to win with defense when needed.
SURPRISE: The injury to John Corker. This is big. The defense has always flowed through the All-USFL MLB, but with him being out for the rest of the year, they will have to find a way to regroup. A big part of their loss to Tampa was a failing of the defense to make adjustments at the line of scrimmage, something Corker excelled at, so this could be a very big loss indeed.
OUTLOOK: We still see Michigan wrapping up the #1 seed out West, but they do have to worry that Arizona’s run is legit. They will be a championship contender, even if their defense struggles down the stretch.
CHICAGO (7-2)
We will be the first to say that we did not see this coming. The Blitz have a top 3 defense—not new this year—but they also boast a solid and balanced offense, something which has eluded them in past years. The Blitz, not the Panthers or Bandits, are actually 1st in the league in total offense, averaging 385 yards a game. If that persists and the defense retains its usual strength, Michigan may have their first real challenge for the division in the league’s 3 years.
SURPRISE: Vince Evans. We only got a peak of what the former NFL QB could do last year before a season-ending injury forced Chicago to use untested rookie Blair Kiel for most of the season. Back and apparently better than ever, Evans has been a revelation. He is already over 2,100 passing yards and has built a real rapport with wideout Jackie Flowers. He was forced to miss the Week 10 matchup with Memphis, but the Blitz still found a way to win, which is a good sign for the rest of the year.
OUTLOOK: Chicago is mounting a serious challenge to the Michigan Panthers, all the while wondering who will own the team next year. The good news is that winning has made the Blitz a hotter ticket in the Windy City, though now that baseball is in season it may be harder to hold that audience. If attendance drops off it won’t likely be because the team is failing on the field, and that is a good position for a team that has not been worthy of a big fan base in its first 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH (4-5)
How much do the Maulers wish they played in the Southern Division? 4-5 is hardly the record of world beaters, but the Maulers have had some impressive outings, most notably a 41-37 shootout with Tampa Bay and a 15-10 slugfest with Boston. But they have also had some real stinkers, including the last 2 weeks against 3-6 Houston and 3-6 Birmingham. If they want to edge into a playoff spot, they need to catch up to some pretty heavy hitters (Michigan, Chicago, Arizona and LA are all ahead of them by multiple games.)
SURPRISE: John Jefferson has been the shot in the arm that Pittsburgh, and QB Todd Blackledge, needed. His 649 yards leads the team, and his leadership has made the rest of the receiving corps better. This is still a run-first team behind Mike Rozier, but with more balance, more wins can come the Maulers’ way.
OUTLOOK: Looking ahead at the Maulers schedule, they have a tough road ahead. They not only face both Chicago and Michigan again, but must also line up against 8-1 Philadelphia (Week 11) and solid teams in Jacksonville and Oakland. We like the Maulers, but this team is most likely out of playoff contention with a lineup like that ahead of them.
HOUSTON (3-6)
We are just not sold on the Run & Shoot, and we are beginning to think Jim Kelly agrees with us. Kelly’s play this year has been spotty, largely due to a lack of protection. The LB of a QB is not exactly fleet of foot, but the lack of protection has him running for his life. This has lead to a 9-8 TD to INT ratio, 15 sacks and frequent replacements by Fred Besana due to low-grade injuries. Without a solid line, the Run & Shoot seems to become the Run & Run Away.
SURPRISE: Scoring. This is an offense designed to ovewhelm pass defenses, but the Gamblers are only averaging 24.2 points per game, hardly earth-shattering scoring. With little emphasis on the run game, the offense depends on an aerial assault, but the only one being assaulted seems to be the Houston QB.
OUTLOOK: This is not going to end well. It is nearly impossible to upgrade an offensive line mid season, and without that upgrade, this team cannot be what the coaches propose. The Gamblers have some winable games ahead, but not enough to climb back into this season.
ARIZONA (7-2)
After starting the season 1-2, the Wranglers have been hotter than the cattle brand in their logo. They blew past Tampa Bay 42-27, and have been the only team to defeat the Stars (24-17). What is even more impressive is that they have won games with 3 different QB’s at the helm. The star is still Rick Neuheisel, but this is a team with far more talent than we saw in the preseason, and they can win in a lot of ways, which is a great sign come playoff time.
SURPRISE: Offensive output. The Wranglers are first in the league in scoring (30.3 yards per game), and with a solid defense (23.1 points per game) they are winning most games comfortably. They will need to keep that up as they still have 2 big games left against LA, and a matchup at Michigan in Week 13.
OUTLOOK: Arizona is a dangerous team, one which could find itself in the Western Conference Finals. A lot will depend on their home and away series with LA as the Wrangler would certainly prefer to win the division and get at least 1 home playoff game.
LOS ANGELES (6-3)
The Express were predicted to take a step this year, and they have. They need to improve their run game (last in the league) but they have the talent to do it with Mack and Boddie. Steve Young also needs to try to make better use of secondary receivers, as he seems locked into either Townsell or Ellis on almost every play, but overall this is a dangerous squad.
SURPRISE: The LA Defense. This has not been a squad which has had much to crow about in the team’s first 2 seasons, but this year the LA D is 2nd in the league in yards allowed and 4th in scoring allowed. If the defense can keep up those rankings, the LA offense is certainly strong enough to win more than they lose down the stretch.
OUTLOOK: As with the Wranglers, LA’s prospects will largely be defined by the home and away games between the two. The Express have a favorable schedule, with games against Houston, Denver, and New Jersey which should be wins. We expect playoffs for certain, but they will want to push to be the #2 seed and not the #4.
OAKLAND (4-5)
This is a much better team than the one that shambled to a 3-13 record in 1984. They could easily finish at or above 8-8. The arrival of Brian Sipe has shifted the offense, and while the Invaders are still lagging in scoring (12th at 23.1 points per game) they are controlling the ball and outgaining most foes.
SURPRISE: HB Albert Bentley has been a revelation. Buried in the depth chart at Michigan, Bentley started the year as a surprise first-teamer, due to lingering issues with Arthur Whittington’s knee. But his play has made it impossible to remove him from the lineup in favor of Whittington. Bently has over 750 yards and is consistently a top 3 RB in the league.
OUTLOOK: Do not be shocked if the Invaders go on a run out of the bye. They face a pretty weak lineup out of the bye with Denver (3-6), Boston (4-5) and Pittsburgh (4-5) all possibly falling to the Invaders. Problem is that their final 4 games include matchups against LA, Arizona and Michigan. They will need to surprise one or more of those teams to have a shot at a playoff spot, but just the fact that we view the Invaders as playoff contenders is in itself a small miracle one year out of finishing last in the league.
DENVER (3-6)
With talent levels rising across the USFL, it was only a matter of time until the grit and work ethic of the Denver Gold would no longer be enough to consistently win games. Denver just seems outmatched in many games. The new owners have said that they expect to spend more than in the past to fill out the Gold roster, and that seems to be a necessity in the growing arms race of the USFL.
SURPRISE: The Defense’s collapse. Denver has always been able to slog through games thanks to a ball control offense and a stingy defense, but this season half of that equation has failed them. Denver is last in the league in overall defense (386 yards per game), and is in the bottom half of the league in both pass and rush defense. Without a solid defense the entire strategy of slowing down the game and winning at the end just does not work.
OUTLOOK: While we love the pluck of players like Harry Sydney and Bob Gagliano, the Gold are simply going to have to have an influx of higher tier, and more expensive, players. Winning a game 16-13 is just not common enough in the USFL for the Gold to be successful with their current strategy or their current roster.
REVISED SEASON PREDICTIONS:
USFL Championship: Philadelphia vs. Arizona
League MVP: Kelvin Bryant, RB, PHI
Rookie of the Year: Brian Noble, LB, ARZ
Coach of the Year: Marv Levy, CHI