1988 Midseason Report Card

Sporting News, May 4, 1988

We are halfway through the USFL season and the key word this year seems to be “parity”. For the first time in a long time no team is moving into the season’s second half undefeated. No team has only 1 win, and nearly everyone has a legitimate path to a possible playoff berth. There are surprises at the top (New Orleans, Baltimore, Texas) and at the bottom (Tampa, Jacksonville, Washington) but what we have seen all year is that there is a lot of parity and a lot of potential all across the year. As we give our midyear grades to each team, let’s talk about what is working and what is not for each squad.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

New Orleans Breakers (6-2)

OFFENSE: A

The Breakers have been explosive in both the run and passing game. Matt Robinson has come out of nowhere to lead the league in QBR and TD’s, and the combination of Dupree and Hilliard is a powerful 1-2 punch. The Breakers lead the league at nearly 36 points per game, are rank second in both passing and rushing YPG. That is a deadly combo.

DEFENSE: C-

For all the accolades we give the New Orleans offense, we have to recognize that the defense is not helping them reach 6-2. They have given up 31 to Chicago, 40 to Texas, and 46 to Pittsburgh. The only game where they allowed fewer than 20 points was a blowout against Portland. That is not good. New Orleans needs to switch things up, perhaps play more zones to slow down offenses and allow their own offense to overpower their opponents, because this is not a team that will win a 17-14 game.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

If the offense can sustain them, we could see New Orleans keeping pace with Houston, but at some point they will have to play some D in order to win in the playoffs. Thay have a tough run against some good defenses (Denver, Michigan, Birmingham) to kick off the 2nd half, let’s see how that goes before we coronate the Breakers atop the Central.

PROJECTION: 11-5, 2nd in Central.

HOUSTON GAMBLERS (6-2)

OFFENSE: B-

We are still trying to figure out what is happening with Jim Kelly. Houston got him an outstanding dual threat weapon in Thurman Thomas and the receivers are the same, yet Kelly is having a down season even as the Gamblers keep winning. Yes, he has thrown for 2,026 yards and 15 TD’s, but he has also thrown 13 interceptions, often forcing the ball where he has no business throwing it. If Coach Pardee can calm Kelly down, keep him from making bad decisions with the ball, mix in more runs, the Gamblers can keep winning with defense and timely scores, but if the carelessness with the ball continues, they may stumble and fall.

DEFENSE: A

This defense remains the bread and butter of Houston’s success. They rank 4th in scoring at 18.1 PPG, but are 2nd in both total yards and passing yards allowed. That combo will win them a lot of games. Simon Fletcher has come on strong this year and already has 6 sacks, and if they can finally get Kiki DeAyala healthy, they will be well on their way to another deep playoff run.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

The Gamblers do not seem as strong as last year, not unless Kelly can regain his MVP form, but they are still the class of the West, at least on defense. That should be enough to help them garner a top seed, perhaps the top seed, in the Western Conference and home field will help them in the playoffs, to be sure.

PROJECTION: 12-4, 1st in Central, likely #1 seed in West.

DENVER GOLD (5-3)

OFFENSE: C+

Denver has never been a flashy team, even with Mouse Davis bringing elements of his Run & Shoot to the Mile High City, but they are often effective in what they do. They are middle of the pack in scoring, but in the bottom third in every yardage category. They wil need to improve on that if they hope to challenge either Houston or New Orleans, because getting home field would be a huge advantage for the Gold.

DEFENSE: A-

The Gold are 5th in PPG allowed, but are #1 against the run. That is a good combo. Stopping the run can be a real benefit come playoff time, but if they want to win on defense, they will need to find a way to cause more turnovers. More turnovers will mean more short fields for their iffy offense, and that means more games that don’t come down to a key stop to determine the outcome.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

Denver is the Quaker Oats of football. They are never exciting, never flashy, but they are dependable and good for you. When they are hot, they are quite good, but when cold, like oatmeal, they can turn off fans quite quickly. If only they could find some tasty fruit to add to the mix and spice things up a bit.

PROJECTION: 10-6, 1st in Pacific

TEXAS OUTLAWS (5-3)

OFFENSE: A-

The Outlaws cherrypicked the best offensive players from the former Gunslingers and Oklahoma Outlaws, and that is helping them outpace expectations. Their early-season sprint through some of the other newer teams in the league helped them explode to a 4-0 start, but their offensive production has dipped since they started facing more stoic teams. They are still 2nd in scoring, and the combo of Doug Williams and Stump Mitchell gives them a solid 1-2 punch. NFL Transfer Carlos Carson is the 3rd Amigo in that trio, and his league leading 930 yards receiving is no mirage, but Texas needs to find a complement to Carson or teams will just focus on him and that could slow things down a lot.

DEFENSE: C+

When they were scoring over 35 a game, this did not matter, but in the past few weeks, when they have gone 1-3, the defensive issues have become more noticeable. They are still strong against the run, allowing only 77 yards per game, and a lot of this falls on 2nd year study Brian Bosworth, but they are giving up nearl 250 yards a game passing, and in a pass-driven league like the USFL, that is not a good thing.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

Texas is the kid from the disadvantaged home who no one expects much of, but he ends up being a chess prodigy. Can the Outlaws remain prodigious for the next 8 weeks or is their recent slump a sign that they are this year’s Orlando Renegades? We think the former, because we like their stars on offense, and we think the defense can do just enough to keep Texas in games.

PROJECTION: 9-7, 3rd in Central and a Wild Card berth.

ARIZONA WRANGLERS (4-4)

OFFENSE: B

We like what we see each week from QB Robbie Bosco, and the Wranglers have some talented receivers. What we are still trying to figure out is why year in and year out their run game is sub par. They are only averaging 74 yards a game, a sad number and 17th in the league, despite having brought in a 1,000 yard NFL rusher in James Wilder. If they could ever find a run game, they would be a dangerous offense, but right now they feel like a team that can only win one way, in the air.

DEFENSE: B

Another B grade for another squad that is uneven and uninspiring. Arizona rarely gets blown out, but they also rarely crush anyone either. Dale Rogers has been a nice surprise at DE with 8 sacks, but that is about all the team has mustered. Bringing in Everson Walls (3 Interceptions) has helped, but they need to be more consistent all across the board.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

The Wranglers seem to be the definition of a mediocre club, one capable of putting together some solid wins, but also some headscratching losses. We are still not sure if this is a talent issue or an effort issue. Until we, and they, figure that out, we cannot see them going very far.

PROJECTION: 8-8, 3rd in Pacific.

LOS ANGELES EXPRESS (4-4)

OFFENSE: B+

We are being generous to the offense because we expect that Christian Okoye will return this week. With Okoye LA has the balance needed to keep defenses honest. Steve Young can manipulate teams with play action, finding Eric Martin or Jo-Jo Townsell open on man coverage because the only way to stop Okoye is to load the box with LB’s and safeties. We see LA moving up from their current 10th rank in scoring once Okoye is back in full force.

DEFENSE: A-

LA is not the most flashy, high-impact defense, but they get the job done. They are allowing only 86 yards a game rushing and only 19.5 points a game, both numbers low enough to equate to wins. They are getting pressure, but not sacks (their leader has only 4), but the pressure leads to mistakes and CB Raphel Cherry loves when QB’s make mistakes. LA won’t put their foot on your neck, but they will trip you up often enough to be a problem.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

Every year we think that Steve Young will bust out with huge numbers, and every year he does OK but not great. He has the weapons to be better than a 20 point a game team, but something about the Express just seems to lead to a lot of 20-17 games. Our guess, however, is that they will be the 20 point team more often than the 17 point team the rest of this year.

PROJECTION: 9-7, 2nd in Pacific, Wild Card Berth.

MICHIGAN PANTHERS (4-4)

OFFENSE: B-

Hard to grade Michigan’s offense since they have had to alternate between Jack Trudeau and Ed Luther so much this year. If Trudeau can finally shake the injury bug the team might be a bit more consistent, and they still have deep ball weapons in Holloway and Carter, but something seems off. John Williams is solid, but rarely draws an 8 or 9 man box defense, and Michigan’s low completion rate offense (deep balls) means a lot of 3 and outs. That is not working as well this year as in the past.

DEFENSE: B+

Here is the issue. In the past, a B on offense was fine for Michigan because they always had an A on defense. This year the D is struggling to maintain their usual standards. They are 13th against the pass, and Ronnie Paggett is being double teamed on nearly every down. The result? Fewer sacks and fewer turnovers.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

Michigan looks like a team on the decline this year. Some of their stars are just not attaining their usual levels of excellence, and the depth does not appear to be there. Maybe we are looking too much at the Ed Luther games and now that Trudeau is back it will shift, but we just cannot shake the feeling that this may be the year Michigan finally misses out on the playoffs.

PROJECTION: 8-8, 4th in Central

OAKLAND INVADERS (3-5)

OFFENSE: C-

Oakland started the year in horrible offensive shape. They have improved and we could see this rating rise if they can keep Richard Williams running and if Gale Gilbert can cut down on missed throws. They currently rank 19th in points per game and only 17th in passing yards, but if they can keep the ball moving on the ground, and find a way to keep Gilbert from being hit, they can improve.

DEFENSE: C+

The Invaders still excel at stopping the run (2nd in the league), and rookie Ken Harvey is a dynamic playmaker for the D, but too many lapses in concentration in the defensive backfield have led to too many passing yards and big plays. Oakland can win some games if they can simplify their schemes and give their safeties less to think about.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

Oakland has been coming on over the past few weeks, and we think they are not as bad as their early season games showed, but it may be too little too late for them to make a run at a playoff spot. They have some pieces as they retool from losing Sipe, Whittington, and Plummer, but they need time to gel and to add a few more.

PROJECTION: 6-10, 4th in Pacific

CHICAGO MACHINE (3-5)

OFFENSE: C+

A far cry from the solid F they earned on offense last year. Chuck Long is improving as a signal caller, and the Machine hit the jackpot in the draft, signing three solid performers in key offensive positions. Michael Haynes has a shot for the Offensive Rookie of the Year with his 618 receiving yards after 8 games. HB Jamie Morris has been less consistent but has had some explosive games. This team will not win a lot of shootouts, but will edge some teams over the course of the second half of the season.

DEFENSE: B-

Coach Joe Bugel wants this team to be a defensive team. Heck, Chicago wants this team to be a defensive team, it is what the city is used to. Chicago’s offseason moves have begun to pay off as Dwayne Board has paid immediate dividends for his NFL transfer, with 6 sacks for the Machine, while former Stallion William Cesare has solidified the defensive backfield and snagged 4 interceptions for Chicago.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

We like the hard-nosed attitude of Coach Bugel and the Machine. They are not there yet, but they are clearly building towards an identity as a smashmouth club that no one will want to face the rest of the year.

PROJECTION: 6-10, 5th in Central.

PORTLAND THUNDER (2-6)

OFFENSE: F

When you are last in scoring and last in total yardage, an F seems the only option. That is not to say that it is all bad in Portland. They chose to start rookie Kerwin Bell at QB and he has had some moments. Receiver Flipper Anderson looks like a solid #1 receiver. They have not gotten what they need from the run game, and that may be in part due to a line that needs some more athleticism and power. The Thunder need time to build on a base of decent players, not unexpected in their first year.

DEFENSE: C-

There are some solid players here as well. We like CB Dwayne Galloway (4 Ints) and Putt Choate is molding the LB corps in his image. They need more dynamism on the D-line, which is last in the league in sacks, and they need to be tougher on 3rd down, but this D will keep Portland in some games that they should not really be competitive in.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

An expansion team looking a lot like an expansion team. Not much more to say.

PROJECTION: 5-11, 5th in Pacific Division.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

PHILADELPHIA STARS (5-3)

OFFENSE: B-

The Stars are winning on defense this year, and while Chuck Fusina rarely makes poor decisions, the offense lacks the element of surprise. We like what we see from rookie Quinn Early, but Philly needs to find ways to push the ball and start gaining ground more than 4 yards at a time.

DEFENSE: A+

This is the heart and soul of Stars football. They are #1 in both scoring and yards allowed and they hit you hard on every play. Sam Mills remains the leader of the D and his turbo engine does not look like it is going to quit. Signing Elmo Gardiner to play Free Safety has also worked out perfectly for the Stars as he leads the league in interceptions. If Philly goes back for a 3rd championship, it will be this D that makes it happen.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

A punishing defense and an offense that rarely makes big mistakes is a good formula to work with. Jim Mora has proven he knows what it takes to win in the postseason, so this Stars team is expected to be right in the thick of things come playoff time.

PROJECTION: 11-5, First in Atlantic.

BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS (5-3)

OFFENSE: A

Joe Cribbs is once again at or near the top of the rushing yardage list, and Cliff Stoudt is having one of his best seasons, leading Birmingham to a #3 ranking in PPG and placing them 2nd in the league in yards per game. That yardage number means that the Stallions can control the ball, the tempo, and the score in most games. That is a good sign that this Stallions team is ready to lead the Southern Division.

DEFENSE: B-

The Stallions are middle of the pack in most categories, despite the continued success of Bob Barker in pressuring quarterbacks. There are not a lot of playmakers in the defensive backfield now that Cesare is gone, but Birmingham can still ball-control teams to death.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

It is not the flash of the former Bandits, nor the intimidation of the Panthers, but the formula Birmingham is using is one which can win them a lot of games. We like them to stay on track to win the division.

PROJECTION: 11-5, First in Southern Division

NEW JERSEY GENERALS (5-3)

OFFENSE: A-

Herschel Walker still runs like a 22 year old, and that is helping New Jersey hold onto the #1 rushing attack in the league. That attack allows Doug Flutie to live on bootlegs and play action. While New Jersey’s passing attack still lacks consistency, it plays off Walker’s run game well and can, at times, impress.

DEFENSE: A

New Jersey invested heavily in defense in the offseason and it shows. They rank 2nd in the league, allowing a mere 16.5 points per game, and they are tough against the run and the pass equally. No one player is racking up sacks, but the entire D-line is forcing opposing quarterbacks to make quick decisions, and that always favors the defense.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

New Jersey still has a bit of an inferiority complex regarding Philly, but this team is capable of keeping pace in the Atlantic. In the end, they need to beat Philly to win the division, and we are not feeling that yet.

PROJECTION: 10-6, 2nd in Atlantic

ORLANDO RENEGADES (5-3)

OFFENSE: C

We are not sure how Orlando has won 5 games when they average only 16.8 points per game on offense. They are in the bottom half of the league in every major offensive category, and once again their fast start seems to be fading.

DEFENSE: B+

The defense is likely the reason Orlando has had the success it has. They are stingy against the pass (only allowing 175 yards a game) but that is offset by a porous run defense, allowing 116 yards per game. Rueben Davis has been a strong addition, recording 9 sacks already this year, but his play against the run is suspect.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

Orlando, just like last year, looks a bit like a paper lion. They have come out of the gate strong, but teams are now realizing how to beat them (run the ball). That is not a good sign and we suspect that just like last year, these Renegades may fade down the stretch.

PROJECTION: 7-9, 3rd in Southern Division

BALTIMORE BLITZ (5-3)

OFFENSE: B

Baltimore is another tough team to figure out. They gain a lot of yards (319 per game) but they are 14th in scoring (19.4 ppg), so is it a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing? Their top stars are not getting any younger, and it does seem that Tim Spencer has lost a step. So, what happens when we get to the tough slog of late season hot summer days?

DEFENSE: B

When your sack leader is a linebacker (Ed Brady with 4) it means that you cannot consistently get pressure with your front 4, and that means that you have fewer defenders covering receivers. That is the story of the Blitz defense. They are solid but not spectacular in any aspect of the defense, and that screams “middle of the pack” to us.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

Marv Levy is getting the most out of this roster, but is it enough? Will they be able to match their success of the first 8 weeks now that playoff positioning turns up the heat? We like the effort, but we are not sure the Blitz have enough to take it through the entire season.

PROJECTION: 8-8, Third in Atlantic

MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS (4-4)

OFFENSE: A-

After last year’s surprise debut, Mike Kelley has repeated his early success this year. Not always the prettiest game in the league, the Showboats offense is nevertheless very competitive. The biggest surprise has been the success of Tampa backup Greg Boone, who has flourished as the lead back in Memphis. His work, along with the ageless Mel Gray, has helped Memphis stay in the top 10 in all three yardage categories (run, pass and total).

DEFENSE: B

We are still waiting for someone other than Reggie White to take a leadership role on this defense. White seems to dominate the minds of offensive coordinators, but who can force them to gameplan for something other than doubling up on White? If Memphis can either clamp down just a bit more or produce more takeaways, they could be truly dangerous.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

We like the effort and the speed of Memphis’s team. They are not elite at anything, except maybe Reggie White’s devastating swim move, but they can impress when all phases are working together.

PROJECTION: 9-7, Second in South

PITTSBURGH MAULERS (3-5)

OFFENSE: B+

The Maulers have found a solid formula on offense. They are leaning on Mike Rozier less, which is good because he is not seeming as explosive as in past years, and Alan Risher is finding success throwing to TE Mike Shaw as a lead weapon. Don’t expect more 6-TD games from Risher, that was a perfect storm, but the Maulers can confuse most defenses when they are on their game.

DEFENSE: D

This is the issue. The Maulers are 19th in the league in both yards per game and scoring defense. You cannot hope to outscore every team and win consistently. The Mauler rush defense is particularly horrible, allowing nearly 140 yards a game. In a division that has Walker, Bryant, James and Spencer, that is the kiss of death.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

Coach Marchibroda was brought in to create offense, and he has certainly done that. Now he may need to look for a D-Coordinator who can do the same. Expect another losing season in Pittsburgh, but if they focus on D in the offseason, they could come out strong in ’89.

PROJECTION: 6-10, 4th in Atlantic

WASHINGTON FEDERALS (2-6)

OFFENSE: C

We would give them a D, but the Federals are still top 10 in passing, thanks to Neil Lomax. That they only score 17 points a game, and that Craig James is well off his pace of past years are bad signs. The O-line has a lot to do with this, as they are simply not winning their battles often enough for Washington to sustain offense.

DEFENSE: B-

Defense keeps Washington in most games, but they still could do more. They are getting pressure (Charles Haley leads the team with 7 sacks) but are not causing turnovers. They need to find a way to turn pressure into mistakes in order to help the offense out.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

This is already a major disappointment for a Federals team that saw itself as ascending to the top of the Atlantic power ratings. To finish behind Pittsburgh will be a major letdown for fans in DC after last year’s playoff appearance.

PROJECTION: 5-11, 5th in Atlantic

TAMPA BAY BANDITS (2-6)

OFFENSE: A-

Tampa has always been an offensive highlight reel and a defensive also-ran. This year that feels doubly true. The O is ranked 5th in points per game at 23.3, but they allow 28 ppg, so that is not good. They have the #1 passing offense, thanks to John Reaves and Eric Truvillion, but that has not led to wins. Teams are containing the offense, and running all over the defense.

DEFENSE: F

20th in scoring defense, allowing 28.8 points per game, and, oh by the way, also 20th in yardage, allowing nearly 375 yards a game. They cannot pressure the QB, stop the run, or force turnovers. As former Bucs Head Man John McCay once said “We cannot block, but we make up for it by not tackling.”.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

This is not the Tampa team we expected this year. It seems that focusing only on offense has begun to fail for Steve Spurrier. In what will almost certainly be Tampa’s first non-playoff season, there are already calls to replace the DC, and maybe Spurrier as well. 1983’s Championship feels like a long time ago.

PROJECTION: 5-11, 4th in South

JACKSONVILLE BULLS (2-6)

OFFENSE: C-

Chris Miller has flashes, but also makes some bonehead decisions. George Adams has good games and then disappears. Only Gary Clark is a consistent figure in Jacksonville, and that inconsistency across the offensive roster means that Jacksonville cannot expect to outscore many opponents.

DEFENSE: C

Can we just say “ditto” about the defense. The squad that shut out Orlando was the anomaly this year. While the Bulls D is more stalwart than the O is dynamic, it is still a step too slow and a second too late in too many key moments of games.

TEACHER’S NOTES:

If it were not for Portland being an expansion team, we would almost certainly be penciling in Jacksonville for the #1 draft pick this year. Lindy Infante was on the hotseat when the season began. That seat is now a flaming bonfire. We expect Infante will last the rest of the season, but he is a prime target for a Black Monday pinkslip.

PROJECTION: 4-12, 5th in South.

OUR REVISED SEASON PREDICTIONS

PLAYOFFS: EAST 1-PHI 2-BIR 3-NJ 4-MEM 5-BAL Champion: Philadelphia

WEST 1-HOU 2-DEN 3-NOR 4-LA 5-TEX Champion: New Orleans

USFL CHAMPIONSHIP: We see a repeat for the Stars over a high-scoring but overmatched Breakers squad.