Sporting News, December 10, 1988
With Christmas soon approaching all 20 USFL franchises are hoping to find presents under the tree in the form of top collegiate talent ready to sign with the spring league instead of waiting for a call from the NFL. With both territorial and open drafts to be held this week, the USFL is hoping to secure some of the big names of college football to contracts and have these young stars join their respective franchises in camp this January. It is a tight window, one made even tougher by the expanded college bowl season keeping players engaged with the college game and unable to sign with an agent before their postseason bowl concludes.
Predicting the USFL draft is tricky. You have the territorial picks, which can remove a lot of players from the open pool, assuming their USFL teams are confident they can sign them, and you have the NFL factor, with many prospects opting to wait and making their preference known before the draft. The USFL typically only signs about 50% of those players drafted, and teams take a player’s openness to an early signing into account when looking at who to use a valuable pick on. For example, Heisman Winner Barry Sanders has been pretty open that it has always been his dream to play in the NFL and that he is not very interested in the spring league, so despite his obvious talent, he is unlikely to be drafted, at least not with an early pick and even less likely to follow former teammate Thurman Thomas to the USFL.
So, here we go, looking at team needs and trying to find a match for them. To do this we are going to imagine that none of the first round picks are going to be selected in the territorial draft, though we will note when that is a possibility. Looking just at talent, need, and fit, we will try to predict who, in an ideal world, each USFL team could best use and who they may try to sign in the first round of this year’s USFL Open Collegiate Draft.
PORTLAND (3-13)
NEEDS: HB, WR, DE, CB, LB
ANALYSIS: The Portland Thunder, by way of a 3-win season, have the first crack at the talent in this year’s draft. They have a lot of needs, but primary among them is getting Kerwin Bell some talent around him in skill positions. Owen Gill and Rodney Carter did not get it done last year, so a top HB talent may be the first order of business. But, the wide receiver room could also use a boost, so don’t be surprised if the Thunder look there as well. We expect offense to be the pick, but expect a lot of later picks to go towards the team’s many defensive needs.
OUR PICK: With Barry Sanders making it clear that he is not interested in the USFL, Portland would be wise to look elsewhere. If they go HB they might look at Georgia’s Tim Worley or FSU’s Sammie Smith. If it is receiver, perhaps Texas’s Eric Metcalf or OK State’s Hart Lee Dykes. For our pick, we are going with Tim Worley as the best option for the Thunder.
CHICAGO (5-11)
NEEDS: CB, DE, TE, C
ANALYSIS: Chicago was the winner (loser?) of the tiebreaker with Tampa Bay so they pick second. Their offense came along this past year, thanks to a great 1988 draft class that added HB Jamie Morris and WR Michael Haynes to the roster. They have to be hoping they can do the same on defense this year. They need to both generate more pass rush and more turnovers. Cornerback was a weakness with last year’s squad, as was DE. They could try to fix either in this year’s draft.
OUR PICK: If he is open to the USFL (which is a huge if), we think FSU’s outspoken CB Deion Sanders would be a great fit for Chicago. But, if they sense that he is looking to wait for NFL dollars, they might opt for either DE Trace Armstrong of Florida or the second best DB in the draft, Clemson’s Donnell Woolford.
TAMPA BAY (5-11)
NEEDS: QB, LB, TE, G
ANALYSIS: Unless Tampa signs someone this week, something they have not done all off-season, they are clearly going to go QB with the first pick. Expect Tampa to even secure this selection by trading for the territorial pick of their favorite prospect. Of the QB’s on the market, the ones most ready to step in and play on day one are UCLA’s Troy Aikman and Washington State’s Timm Rosenbach. Portland may want to take a shot at Rosenbach, so the easier trade might be with LA to get rights to Aikman. With the Dallas Cowboys looking like the likely #1 pick in the NFL draft, the question is whether or not Aikman wants to wait and see if Tom Landry picks him, or will he sign to play with a ‘new wave’ coach like Steve Spurrier.
OUR PICK: If they can swing a deal with LA, we love Troy Aikman to the Bandits. We are sure Spurrier would love it too.
JACKSONVILLE BULLS (6-10)
NEEDS: C, G, T, TE, CB
ANALYSIS: The Bulls have some offensive talent in George Adams, Gary Clark and Hassan Jones. What they don’t have is a line that can keep Chris Miller upright. So, we all know who the top prospect is, Michigan State tackle Tony Mandarich. But will he sign with the Bulls? Will they spend the money to sign him? We are not so sure. They could, and probably should, but they may opt for a more likely signee and a less expensive prospect like Notre Dame guard Andy Heck or Pitt tackle Tom Ricketts.
OUR PICK: In a perfect world, Mandarich. But, more likely we see the Bulls going with T Tom Ricketts.
ARIZONA (7-9)
NEEDS: LB, CB, FS, K
ANALYSIS: With the retirement of Frank Corral, the Wranglers need a kicker…ok, only kidding, they will get one late in the draft. The Wranglers have a lot of offensive firepower, but their pass defense is atrocious. Expect a lot of picks in the defensive backfield, as well as a solid LB who can cover as well as play the run.
OUR PICK: If Chicago does not go for CB Donnell Woolford, the Wranglers should. He has appeared willing to sign with the spring league and he has the ability to immediately start in the depleted Wrangler defensive backfield.
ORLANDO (7-9)
NEEDS: DT, FS, CB, LB, WR
ANALYSIS: Orlando has needs at every level of the defense. While DT looks like the primary need, the 1989 draft is not particularly strong there. The highest rated DT on the board is Tracy Rocker of Auburn, but he should be available in the 2nd round based on his grade. There is much more depth at LB or CB for the Renegades to use a first round pick on.
OUR PICK: If they have a shot at either Alabama’s Derrick Thomas or Nebraska’s Broderick Thomas at LB, they should absolutely look there, and then worry about DT and the DB positions later. Of the two we like the fit for Broderick.
WASHINGTON (7-9)
NEEDS: T, TE, SS, QB
ANALYSIS: Finding a top tackle to protect Neil Lomax (still rehabbing from a hip injury) is job one for Coach Rutigliano and the Federals’ scouting team. We are going to assume that if he is open to the USFL, Tony Mandarich will be signed by Jacksonville, so that leaves Tom Rickets and Florida’s David Williams as the best tackles on the board. They could also hold on the tackle position (though they shouldn’t ) and look for a difference maker at TE.
OUR PICK: We already sent Ricketts to Jacksonville, so we are picking T David Williams here.
OAKLAND (7-8-1)
NEEDS: T, DT, LB, DE
ANALYSIS: Another team desperately hoping to upgrade at offensive tackle. Oakland could take one of the three tackles already discussed, but let’s assume that all 3 are either chosen or otherwise not available. That means the Invaders stretch in the first round on a lesser grade tackle such as LSU’s Ralph Norwood, or they fill another gaping hole, this time at defensive tackle. We already mentioned Tracy Rocker as the best prospect, but again, not graded as a 1st round option. So, what is Oakland to do?
OUR PICK: More out of desperation than talent, we have Oakland taking Tracy Rocker here. But don’t be surprised if they trade down and try to pick up a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
MICHIGAN (8-8)
NEEDS: S,G, HB, QB, SS
ANALYSIS: We think Michigan is now solid at QB after signing former San Diego Charger Mark Hermann. So that leaves them free to either find an eventual replacement for the veteran HB John Williams or to shore up their defense with a much needed safety. There are three very talented safeties in this year’s draft, Razorback Steve Atwater, Gator Louis Oliver, and UCLA Bruin Carnell Lake. With Coach Stanley’s love of defense and hitting, Atwater seems a natural choice, but any of the three would be a good fit for the Panthers.
OUR PICK: Steve Atwater, SS, Arkansas seems the natural fit, if he is willing to consider the league.
BALTIMORE (8-8)
NEEDS: WR, CB, HB, DT
ANALYSIS: Coach Schottenheimer is going to have to hit the ground running, and the first order of business is to create a team in his image. The freewheeling style of Vince Evans is likely not it, but with Tim Spencer getting older, Martyball may require signing a new back. The Blitz also need someone to finally take the pressure off of Jackie Flowers and provide a solid second option at WR. Meanwhile the defense also needs attention. Lots of areas for improvement. Welcome to B’more Mr. Schottenheimer.
OUR PICK: Martyball requires a solid run game. While Spencer is solid for now, we expect the Blitz to look for another option to balance the running load. If Tim Worley is off the table, the best fit for a power run game is Miami back Cleveland Gary. He would certainly bring some steam to the Blitz run game.
TEXAS (8-8, Wild Card)
NEEDS: G, WR, DE, CB, T
ANALYSIS: The Outlaws were surprisingly solid as they built a roster out of the wreckage that was Oklahoma and San Antonio the year before. Reaching the playoffs at 8-8 was a feat, but the way LA dismantled their O-line in the Wild Card game has to be a concern for Coach Widenhofer. There is depth at the guard position, with Andy Heck, BC’s Joe Wolf, and Penn State’s Steve Wisniewski all grading out well. The Outlaws could also look at wideout, with several prospects looking like good fits to line up opposite league OPOTY Carlos Carson.
OUR PICK: Go for a solid line to help Doug Williams, then draft wideouts later. We like Wisniewski here.
PITTSBURGH (8-8, Wild Card)
NEEDS: CB, SS, WR, HB, LB
ANALYSIS: The Maulers surprised everyone with a Wild Card berth this year, but they were still only 8-8 and playing in the Atlantic that is not good enough in most years. They could use depth at the skill positions on offense (Does Mike Rozier ever take a down off?) but their immediate need is to shore up that defensive backfield.
OUR PICK: We had Steve Atwater headed to Michigan, so we pick the next best option, Florida’s Louis Oliver here.
BIRMINGHAM (9-7 Wild Card)
NEEDS: SS, G, TE, T, WR
ANALYSIS: There should still be some strong talent at safety and guard here, but word out of Birmingham is that initerim coach Carl Reese feels OK about his defense and wants to build some offensive continuity. So, they could go O-line, but when I hear that I think of playmakers, so wideout or tight end.
OUR PICK: They could go wideout, looking at a top receiver like Eric Metcalf or Andre Rison, but we also really like TE Walter Reeves of nearby Auburn as a player who can help both the pass and run game. If they snag him in the territorial draft, then perhaps look for Metcalf here.
LOS ANGELES (9-7, Wild Card)
NEEDS: DE, QB, LB, WR, TE, CB
ANALYSIS: LA has two top QB prospects right in their back yard in UCLA’s Troy Aikman and USC’s Rodney Peete, so we expect them to find a replacement for Mike Rae behind Young with the territorial draft. So, that leaves DE as their biggest obvious need. Looking at the prospects there we find Pitt’s Burt Grossman, Virginia’s Jeff Lageman, and Miami’s Bill Hawkins.
OUR PICK: Jeff Lageman can do a lot of everything. Not the fastest or most powerful DE, but a guy who has great technique and can play the run in addition to rushing the QB. He is our pick here.
DENVER GOLD (10-6, Pacific Div. Champion)
NEEDS: C, T, LB, DE, DT
ANALYSIS: For a team built on stingy defense and a risk-taking offense, it seems odd that the Gold are in such need of basic help on both lines. This is a team that says they want to be high-flying, but often get mired in offensive line issues, so they ought to try to address that here. But, it is also a team that often wins with defense, so why not strengthen the D-line or LB corps here?
OUR PICK: This is a tough one, since Denver could go so many directions. They may play the “Best Player Available” card, at least among the positions of need. With no real clue which way they will go, we will play it safe and go with the top rated need position player, DE Burt Grossman of Pitt.
PHILADELPHIA (10-6, Atlantic Div. Champion)
NEEDS: LB, FS, G, T, QB
ANALYSIS: The loss of Sam Mills and Scott Woerner leave huge holes in the staunch Philly defense. Their retirements were unexpected and difficult to replace. But, at the same time, Philadelphia was deep at those positions. Losing Elmo Gardiner at Free Safety, after such a strong final year, may be a more immediate need.
OUR PICK: We think they will go safety here, though LB is also an option. Of the safeties on the board, We like Bruin Carnell Lake here.
NEW JERSEY (8-8, Wild Card)
NEEDS: DE, QB, CB, HB, LB
ANALYSIS: The retirement of backup QB Vince Ferragamo leaves a hole behind Doug Flutie, but do you really use a first round pick on a backup position? You might if you feel good about most positions. New Jersey should likely go DE to get more pass rush, or could look to sign a backup for Herschel Walker, though they did grab Bobby Morse in free agency. But we suspect they will use this pick on a QB, as Doug Flutie’s scrambling puts him in constant danger of injury.
OUR PICK: A lot of options here, they could stay local with Princeton’s Jason Garrett, but we think they will shoot for a bigger name, even if it means looking all across the country at Washington State’s Timm Rosenbach.
NEW ORLEANS (13-3, Central Div. Champion)
NEEDS: T, G, DT, FB, G, CB
ANALYSIS: New Orleans was the surprise team of the season last year, moving from a perennial 8-8 squad to the top seed and 13 wins. Was it a fluke? Is it a sign of things to come? There are no huge obvious positions of need in New Orleans, though that defense has got to get better if they are going to compete come playoff time. While they could go for depth on the O-line, we think they might look to that defense first.
OUR PICK: Linebacker is the best defensive position in this year’s draft, but it is also the area of least need for New Orleans. Defensive Tackle makes sense, and if Rocker is off the board, TCU’s Mitchell Benson is the best option here.
MEMPHIS (10-6, Southern Div. Champion)
NEEDS: DT, S, WR, CB, DE
ANALYSIS: Memphis made a brilliant run all the way into the USFL Championship Game last season. They look poised to be a factor in the Southern Division for a while to come, but they still have some needs. While Reggie White is a monster outside, the inside of the D-line is susceptible to being gashed, as Houston’s Thurman Thomas proved in the championship game. They could also use a stronger, harder hitting strong safety, and they will have to figure out how to eventually replace Mel Gray at wideout. He is not getting any younger, and injuries may catch up to him soon.
OUR PICK: If Memphis really wants a hard-hitting safety, you cannot find better than Miami Hurricane Bubba McDowell.
HOUSTON (11-4-1, Wild Card, USFL Champion)
NEEDS: TE, DE, LB, CB,QB
ANALYSIS: With back-to-back championship appearances, it is clear that Houston does not need much to be a contender. We still think a solid TE would boost their offense, but we also know that Jack Pardee is never satisfied about the Houston D, even when it wins him a championship. If there were a clear 1st round pick at TE, we think Houston would go for him, but barring that, expect a defensive selection here.
OUR PICK: Jeff Lageman would be solid here, if he is available. If not, and we think not, then we like the fit for Tennessee LB Keith DeLong.
There you have it, our very shaky picks for the USFL Open Draft. With so much doubt about how teams will use the Territorial Draft, and with more and more college players making statements about USFL interest or disinterest, it is very likely we are more wrong than right with the picks, but we do expect a lot of these names to be on roster when the USFL season kicks off in March. Now we get to see who they are and if they sign.