Sporting News, April 30, 1990
Upstarts gunning for playoff spots, quarterbacks falling like leaves, preseason favorites looking like also-rans, this season has had a bit of everything. The defending champions look like one of the league’s worst teams, the Washington Federals have a legitimate shot at winning their division, and several coaches are in danger of being ousted midseason. It has been a wild year so far and we are only 8 week in. But, let’s try to get a hold on what is happening here by looking at each division and reassessing what is possible for the second half of the year.
Original projection: 1-New Jersey 2- Baltimore 3-Philadelphia 4-Pittsburgh 5-Washington
Revised projection: 1-Philadelphia 2-Washington 3-Baltimore 4-Pittsburgh 5-New Jersey
Projected playoff teams: Stars and Federals
Breakout star of the first half: CB Lorenzo Lynch of the Stars. He has been all over the field making plays for Philly all season.
Disappointment of the first half: New Jersey, collectively. We cannot point to any one reason why the Generals are languishing in last place, but they are. Don’t point fingers at Herschel Walker, who is the league’s rushing leader after 8 weeks, but something on this offense is wrong, and the defense has no answers either. How can a team that was so focused last July be so undisciplined in March and April? There is a lot of talent here, but there seems to be no sense of urgency or desire to go the extra mile.
Opinion: Yup, we got this one wrong, but so did everyone else. New Jersey is the defending league champion but they are playing as if they have forgotten even the basics of the game, and at the same time the Washington Federals, who were supposed to be reeling after losing two offensive stalwarts to the NFL, have proven the naysayers wrong. We don’t think they can hold off the more talented Stars, but we do see playoffs in the offing for the Feds. Baltimore and Pittsburgh look like middle-of-the-pack teams and we expect both to be within a game of .500 by the end of the year.
Original projection: 1-Tampa Bay 2-Memphis 3-Orlando 4-Birmingham 5-Jacksonville
Revised projection: 1-Memphis 2-Tampa Bay 3-Orlando 4-Birmingham 5-Jacksonville
Projected playoff teams: Memphis, Tampa Bay, Orlando
Breakout star of the first half: WR John Jefferson of Orlando. Jefferson was a well-known player from his years in the NFL, but had not made much of an impact in the USFL. Not so much this year, where he is already over 1,000 yards receiving and has a legitimate shot at the elusive 2,000 yard mark.
Disappointment of the first half: This division has things going more or less the way we expected. Yes, we are shocked that Jacksonville has not yet won a single game, but they are not as bad as 0-8 would seem to indicate. If we had to pick a disappointment it would be with the Bulls. Chris Miller has just not made the leaps one should expect from a young QB and the signing of James Wilder produced just what Arizona probably knew it would, a mediocre run game with more potential than production.
Opinion: The Southern Division is holding to the projection, though we are flipping Memphis and Tampa in our revised projection. With Joe Cribbs finally coming back from injury Birmingham still has a shot to overtake Orlando, but we don’t see them catching either Tampa or Memphis. Jacksonville has been even worse than anticipated, although their tendency to lose close games gives them a shot to snag some wins if they can just catch some luck in the second half of the season. Memphis and Tampa will likely battle down to the final week of the season to see who gets the division title.
Original projection: 1-New Orleans 2-Houston 3-Michigan 4-Chicago 5-Texas
Revised projection: 1-New Orleans 2-Michigan 3-Chicago 4-Texas 5-Houston
Projected playoff teams: New Orleans, Michigan, Chicago
Breakout Star of the first half: QB Kelly Stouffer of Texas. While Reggie Cobb may win Rookie of the Year, it is the emergence of Stouffer as a legitimate superstar that has surprised us the most. He could not get past Robbie Bosco on the Arizona depth chart, but Coach Widenhofer has found a diamond in the rough in the young QB.
Disappointment of the first half: We are not going to single out Jim Kelly, though his TD to INT rate is still nowhere near what a QB of his caliber should have. We are going to call out the Houston defense. It was that squad that helped the Gamblers to two straight championship games, and the roster has not turned over that much that they should be this unreliable now. The Gamblers D now ranks 20th in both points allowed and yardage allowed. How can that be? Coach Willsey has some answering for that as he brought in a new defensive coaching staff after Jack Pardee left for the NFL, and it is not working for Houston.
Opinion: The big miss here was with Houston. Like the Generals, few saw the Gamblers falling apart. They clearly miss Ricky Sanders more than anticipated and the defense has been a major letdown. New Orleans looks like the team we expected, all offense, mediocre defense. Michigan is solid as long as Jack Trudeau is standing at QB as their depth in the WR corps has helped them overcome the loss of Anthony Carter. The real battle here is for a possible Wild Card spot between Texas and Chicago. Both teams are flawed, Texas on defense and Chicago on offense, but both are also capable of beating very good teams when they are on their game. We are picking Chicago in part due to our belief that defense is the way you win, but also just sentimentally we like to see new teams get into the postseason. For Houston, first year coach Ray Willsey may well be a one-and-done leader as he seems to be losing the faith of his players, several of whom have made some “off the record” comments that clearly point to dissent and distrust in the locker room.
Original projection: 1-Denver 2-Oakland 3-Arizona 4- Los Angeles 5-Portland
Revised projection: 1-Arizona 2-Oakland 3-Portland 4-Denver 5-Los Angeles
Projected playoff teams: Arizona, Oakland
Breakout star of the first half: HB Lionel James of the Arizona Wranglers. We all knew what James had done in the NFL, but he was seen as a past-his-prime signing by Arizona. He is now a huge part of the Wrangler offense, both in the run and pass game. James still has the quicks to make defenders miss, and the toughness to take the ball up the middle if called upon to do so. His combo with Darryl Clack has been the latest RB tandem to make waves in the league.
Disappointment of the first half: We could easily cite the entire LA Express offense, but rather than put this one on the players we are going to point squarely at the Express front office. You had Steve Young and Christian Okoye. You manage to lose both of them. Now you bring in veteran Walter Lewis, who has not started in over 2 years, and you cannot sign a top HB either in free agency or the draft to replace Okoye. The result? 2 wins in 8 games and a fanbase that would rather be at the beach than sit through not only bad football but boring football. I feel for the defenders on this LA Express team, who are doing their part, but fighting an uphill battle when the offense cannot score.
Opinion: This division has been as unpredictable as ever. Of course, the injury to Bob Gagliano severely hurt Denver’s title hopes, though clearly that is not the only issue for the Gold as their defense has struggled this year. Arizona and Oakland are about where we thought they would be, though the Invaders still are not consistent enough on offense to take over the division. LA is significantly worse than we expected, with their offense being a shadow of its former self, despite having a talented receiving group. They have started 3 different QB’s this year and have only really gotten 1 good performance in 8 games. Portland surprised us out of the gate, and have suffered lately with David Archer injured, but if Archer can return, Coach Erickson might be able to get the Thunder to 8-8 by season’s end, a huge step up for a team that had only 1 win last year.
MIDSEASON AWARD WINNERS
MVP: There is no frontrunner in the field for MVP this year. Several players are looking like potential candidates, on both sides of the ball. Brian Bosworth appears to be running away with the league title for most tackles, but that does not always signify good defense and the league is unlikely to reward a player for defensive play if the team defense is not solid. Orlando has two potential candidates as QB Reggie Collier and WR John Jefferson are both putting up gaudy numbers, but Orlando is only 4-4 and if stats don’t lead to wins, how do you award MVP. If you look at the top teams the best bets for MVP would be Memphis DE Reggie White, if he can hold off Michigan’s Ronnie Paggett for the sack title, and Tampa Bay quarterback (and last year’s Rookie of the Year) Troy Aikman. Our bet, if Orlando makes it above .500 and into the playoffs, and if he teases the 2,000 yard mark, as he appears to be doing, we would expect veteran John Jefferson to take the MVP, if neither of those happens, the league may just reward Reggie White for yet another outstanding season.
COACH OF THE YEAR: My vote would go to Dennis Erickson just for getting the Thunder to 3 wins in the first half of the season, but unless they can reach or surpass .500 I don’t see it happening. My guess is that if Washington can reach 10 wins it will go to Sam Rutigliano, but if they falter over the second half, I would not be surprised to see Philadelphia’s Jack Bicknell get it for the rebound season the Stars are having.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Unlike MVP, wins are not as important here as stats, so I see Reggie Collier nabbing this award. He is having a breakout season, which is a weird thing to say for a guy who has been a starter for so long. He has 20 TD passes in 8 games and could toy with 5,000 yards passing for the season if his play holds up. Add in a likely playoff run and the Renegade QB should be a shoe-in for this award.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: If he does not get MVP this could go to Reggie White. If not, then we would have to go with Brian Bosworth, who is far ahead of any competition when it comes to accruing tackles. But again, if he has 150 tackles and the team’s defense is ranked 15th or lower, is that a good thing? A darkhorse here might be LA Express LB Chip Banks. The Express are bad, no doubt about it, but that mostly lies on their offense. The defense has done what it can to win games, and Banks, who has 63 tackles, 6 sacks, 2 safeties and 2 forced fumbles on the year is clearly the best player on the squad.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Right now it looks like Reggie Cobb is going to run away with the award this year. The Texas Outlaw RB has already gained 645 yards rushing, more than 300 ahead of Barry Foster of Denver. The next best option is likely on defense where Portland’s Bobby Houston has accrued 45 tackles and 3 sacks, but if Cobb reaches 1,000 yards, which looks eminently possible, then the award will be his.