1992 Midseason Report & Predictions

We arrive at the midway point of the 1992 season and there are surprises almost everywhere. Injuries have led to backups getting a chance to show what they can do. Some teams are overachieving beyond what we could have imagined, others are not showing us the quality we expected to see. It is a topsy turvy season to be sure. Let’s look at our Top 10 biggest stories of the season to date and then we can look at each team and its prospects for a postseason appearance.

10. Success in St. Louis

The immediate success, both on the field, but more importantly at the box office, has to have the new owners of the St. Louis Knights dancing in the streets. Yes, the Orthwein group had to pay the USFL additional funds to offset lost tv revenue due to the move from LA to the Gateway City, but within St. Louis they are being treated like heroes for returning pro football to the city. A 4-4 start, and much improved play from both QB Dan McGwire and the HB combo of Buford Jordan and Darrell Thompson has fans in St. Louis excited about their new team. Attendance has been much better than we saw in LA over the past two years, and there seems to be a real buzz about the Knights, which can only help the league. And now, with plans solidly in place to return USFL football to Los Angeles in 1995, the move may end up being a win-win for the city of St. Louis and the USFL as well.

9. Heart-Breaker in New Orleans

The injury to Breakers’ QB Matt Robinson has the potential to be season-altering not only for New Orleans, but for the entire Central Division. Robinson has not had his best season, but it is clear that the Breakers will certainly struggle without him. Houston is licking their chops, and Texas, Michigan and Chicago all see hope for a run as well. The Breakers are still solid at 5-3, and they have a defense that will keep them in games, but they will need backup Matt Dunigan to show more than he did last season or this could be the first time since 1983 that the Breakers do not make a playoff appearance.

8. Renegade Wreck

What is happening in Orlando? When you look at the bottom of the standings leaguewide, you see some teams we all expected to be there. Baltimore, Chicago, and Denver were all expected to have rough years or were viewed as rebuilding projects. But Orlando was in the Summer Bowl a year ago, and to see them with only 3 wins after 8 games is truly a shocker. Most are placing the blame on a defense that has talent but is simply not doing what they need to do. You have to look at it that way when you see that the Renegades are leading the league in yards per game on offense, but give up as many yards as they gain. Despite having a leading sack artist in newly-signed Chris Doleman, the Renegades are near the bottom in pass defense, and in this league that is a death sentence for a team. Orlando has to hope to see improvement in the defense if they want any chance to climb out of the hole they are in and compete in the Southern Division. They are already 3 games behind Memphis, but fortunately, the rest of the division is within reach, as is a Wild Card spot, if, and only if, they can start getting some consistency from the defensive side of the ball.

7. Rozier is Rolling!!

We have to talk about the season that Mike Rozier is having. With 960 yards at the half-way point, Rozier is on pace to shatter the league record of 1767 yards held by Herschel Walker. He is on pace to reach 1,900 yards and has a serious shot at the elusive 2,000 yard mark. Rozier is a solid 200 yards ahead of his closest competitors (Greg Boone and Walker) for the rushing title and his team is reaping the benefits, sitting at 7-1. Rozier is quick to share the credit with his offensive line, and we recognize that the Mauler line has been outstanding this year in both run blocking and pass protection, but Rozier has been a superstar on a bad team for a long time, and this year the stars seem to be aligned for him to finally see what it is like to be a leader on a very good team.

6. Freshman Jitters

The Rookie Class of 1992 is proving it hard to make an immediate impact in the league. Few players from this season’s draft have broken into the starting lineup so far this season, and fewer still are having a quick start. Yes, Oakland is starting HB Siran Stacy, and Michigan back Rodney Culver is also getting a lot of carries, but neither is busting through. Culver has a high 4.7 ypc average, but still gets fewer carries than teammate Vince Workman. Stacy is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry despite being the clear starter for the Invaders. Among receivers Memphis’s Carl Pickens is the top target, with 36 receptions for 411 yards. Next, and much farther down the receiving stat list, is TE Deems May of Baltimore, with 26 receptions. David Klingler is the only 1st year QB to see any playing time, and that is only due to a 2-3 week injury to Jim Kelly in Houston. There are some rookies starting on defenses around the league, such as DT Chester McGlockton in Tampa, CB’s Troy Vincent and Steve Israel in St. Louis, and LB Mark D’Onofrio in Pittsburgh, but overall the rookie class looks like one that will need time to make their mark in the USFL.

5. Wrangling up Wins

Arizona’s rebound, 2 years after their run to the Summer Bowl, but one year after a disastrous 5-11 collapse, has caught many off guard. Coach Tollner has seemingly rediscovered the formula which helped propel Arizona to the 1990 Summer Bowl: Strong defense and a balanced offensive attack. Arizona trails only Memphis in points allowed at 16.6 per game, and has done it by simply shutting down the passing lanes. Corners Vince Buck and Leonard Bell have played well beyond expectations, and safeties Martin Bayless and David Fulcher have helped implement a multiple look zone that has quarterbacks delaying their throws, a delay that has allowed DE Al Noga time to reach them and earn 8 sacks on the season to date. Linebackers Brian Noble and Broderick Thomas have also been huge factors in the defensive resurgence for the Wranglers. Add in an offense which can mount long, time-killing drives, thanks to the rushing combo of Darryl Clack and Lionel James, and the Wranglers are finding ways to win ugly, but win often.

4. Coach Buddy Brings the Pain!!

The job Buddy Ryan is doing in Memphis is bringing new life to the idea of defense first in the USFL and bringing a new energy to the Showboats. Memphis is ranked #1 in the league in scoring defense, allowing only 16.4 points per game. They also rank in the Top 5 in both total yards allowed and rushing yards allowed. Their pass defense is predicated on a brutal front 4 pass rush, while their rush defense uses multiple line stunts and blitz schemes to clog the middle and force teams outside. The result of this new scheme is a 6-2 record and one of the most intimidating defenses in football. Reggie White is now seeing fewer double teams thanks to the speedy Santana Dotson lining up at right DE, and the linebacking corps of Douglass, Junkin and Simmons is containing the run. Bennie Blades and Bubba McDowell at safety are also making life tough for both receivers and runners as they are not afraid to lay down the hard hits. It is a defense that is both game-altering and fun to watch, reminding many of the ’85 Bears, also led by Ryan.

3. General Mayhem.

Not all change is good change. New Jersey started the year 2-0 and many felt that their offseason gambit to trade away Chris Miller and lock in Doug Flutie as their #1 QB was going to pay off with a division run. But, now, 6 weeks later, and with New Jersey stuck in a 6-game losing streak, fans are beginning to wonder if the Generals made any good calls this offseason. Sam Wyche’s new offense is not producing and Doug Flutie is the lowest ranked starting QB in the league. The Generals seem to lack direction and energy, and even their defense, which includes the league’s sack leader in Phil Hansen, cannot seem to get their act together. Wyche has 8 weeks to turn this thing around, and show that the choice of Flutie at QB was not a huge error, or both he and his quarterback may be on their way out.

2. Fah-vuh-ruh!!!!

There are times when an unfortunate injury can change the destiny of two players, the injured and the backup who steps in. That certainly seems to be the case for Cliff Stoudt and Brett Favre in Birmingham. Stoudt went down with an abdomimal tear in Week 1 and Favre, a 2nd year “project” from Southern Mississippi was called to start. What has happened since has been the stuff dreams are made of. Favre leads the league with a 120.2 QB rating, has thrown for 22 touchdowns (on pace to tie John Reaves’s record of 44) and has tossed only 2 interceptions since taking over the starting job. Now Cliff Stoudt, an 8 year starter for Birmingham, may find himself holding the clipboard as Favre finishes out the season. And what of next year? Will Stoudt stay on in a backup role? Will he seek a trade? Will he retire? Favre is clearly now the man in B’ham. His face can be seen everywhere around town, and his #4 jerseys cannot stay on the shelves, so the Stallions have a new icon, and Cliff Stoudt now has to think about what is next for him.

#1 Story of the Year: The Steel City is Celebrating!

The #1 story of the year has to be the sudden rise of the Pittsburgh Maulers. The Maulers, with only a few roster changes, have moved from the team that has risen from a 7-win average over the past three years to a 1-loss team at the halfway point. There were signs that Pittsburgh was improving under Coach Marchibroda last year, as a late run set them up for a Wild Card 9-7 finish, but the 7-1 start they have gotten this year was not predicted. Alan Risher is playing some of his best ball, perhaps due to the arrival of Louis Lipps from Arizona, but the true revelation has been a defense that is allowing fewer than 20 points per game on average. DE John Bosa is among the sack leaders, FS Pat Terrell can say the same with 4 interceptions, and a linebacking corps that lost 3 starters from last year, has found success with Eric Kumerow, the lone holdover, leading the league in tackles, while newcomers Godrey Miles and Mark D’Onofrio are proving to be solid additions. This is a team that looks poised to make the city of Pittsburgh stand up and take notice.

Looking at the second half of the season, it is hard to predict team fortunes suddenly changing, though certainly injuries, like the one to Breaker QB Matt Robinson, can lead to a tougher second half. But, we have seen teams race through a second half, even going 8-0 (as New Jersey did a couple of years back) to shoot up the standings and find a playoff spot waiting. We have also seen teams fall apart at the end of the year (as Birmingham did last year) to drop out of what seemed a sure playoff spot. With 14 of the league’s 20 teams sitting in a range from 5-3 to 3-5, there is so much that is unknown and so much to be discovered in the second half that we can hardly write anyone off or lock anyone in. So, with much guesswork, here is our prediction of the final standings for the USFL after 8 more weeks of play.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

We believe in Orlando’s ability to right the ship and regain playoff form. They have too much talent to stay below .500 all year. We also believe in Birmingham QB Brett Favre. Every week he seems more confident and the team gets better, so we see big things in the second half of the year.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

We are just not convinced that Matt Dunigan can lead New Orleans to a winning record, even with a solid defense, so the Breakers fall out of contention while Houston and Michigan edge their way in. The Pacific is anyone’s guess, but we like Oakland’s experience and Portland’s pluck over the potential of St. Louis or a rebuilding Denver squad.

Our revised Summer Bowl '92 Prediction: Memphis vs. Houston

Revised MVP Prediction: Mike Rozier, HB, Pittsburgh

Revised Coach of the Year Prediction: Buddy Ryan, Memphis

Revised Rookie of the Year Prediction: No idea. How about a lineman?