USA Today
July 2, 1993
Fourth of July weekend and it is playoff football time. It’s the Wild Card Weekend and while half of the league starts priming for a busy offseason, 4 teams battle for the chance to advance in the USFL playoffs. In this edition we will examine all 10 playoff teams, starting with our Wild Card competitors, share some news relevant to the USFL’s expansion efforts, and take a look at the top Free Agents expected to be on the market this year. Let’s get it started with our Playoff Profiles
PLAYOFF PROFILES
NEW JERSEY GENERALS (8-8)
The Skinny: New Jersey’s season was a rollercoaster. After starting 2-1, they lost 5 in a row, but then rebounded with 5 straight wins, including a shocking home win against Birmingham, before losing 2 of their final 3 to end the season at 8-8. They qualified on the last week of the season thanks to a big win over Baltimore and a loss by the Philadelphia Stars. How they do will depend on which team shows up.
Players to Watch: Normally we would look at Herschel Walker to define the Generals’ success, but not this year. This year it is all about Doug Flutie, who had his best season statistically, with a 35-17 TD-INT ratio and 4,633 yards passing. If he is hot, can escape the pass rush and find his deep threat receivers, the Generals can be dangerous.
Potential Concerns: New Jersey was middle-of-the-pack in most defensive stats, but that is because they traded good weeks and bad weeks. If Phil Hansen cannot get to the QB and if the LBs are not on their game and allow broken tackles, this could be a very short postseason for the Generals.
Outlook: New Jersey matches up well against the Bulls, so we would not be shocked if they pulled off this week’s road game, but facing Birmingham in Legion Field is no small task. Yes, New Jersey beat the Stallions earlier this season, one of only 2 teams to do so, but that was in Giants Stadium and it was the defense’s best game of the year. Is that a repeatable task? We are not so sure.
OAKLAND INVADERS (8-8)
The Skinny: After a 2-5 start we had all but written off the Invaders, and were wondering what happened to the Bobby Hebert we all remember from his brilliant years in Michigan, but a 6-3 finish helped to build confidence in the squad. The team still relies too heavily on their defense and Hebert has not exploded yet in the way we expected, but Oakland has enough weapons, with Siran Stacy, Henry Ellard, and Marc Duper to be dangerous.
Players to Watch: Yes, Hebert’s play matters, quite a bit actually, but in our minds it is all about the 4th ranked scoring defense. Ken Harvey has been a beast all year, leading the league in tackles, and Aeneas Williams can pick a QB’s pocket at any time, but they will need support from others, including rookie SS John Lynch, LBs Rivera and Kirk, and some up front pressure from Kim Bokamper and Derwin Jones would help too.
Potential Concerns: Can the Oakland offense win a game if the defense falters? That is the big question. Hebert has been better of late, but his 53.6 completion rate means a lot of 3rd downs do not end well. We need to see some old school Cajun Cannon if Oakland expects to move past Denver and then Houston, both on the road.
Outlook: This first matchup against a team they just played in Week 16 is an intriguing one. Denver matches up well against the Invaders, so this is likely to be a close game. If Hebert can show us some magic, and if the defense is on their game, Oakland can easily pull off the road upset, but that means facing Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and the Gamblers in Houston, and that is where we see the party ending.
DENVER GOLD (8-8)
The Skinny: It is so hard to predict what we will get from the Gold each week. We know that they rarely have an offensive explosion, relying on ball control and defense to win games, and they lost 3 of their last 5, so they are not exactly peaking right now. If they are going to win games it will be because they did not make mistakes and they forced others to make those mistakes.
Players to Watch: If Natrone Means gets 100 yards, or even 80 on the ground, the Gold have a much better chance of winning. The combo of Means and Timmy Smith can be a powerful one, but only if Means is able to muscle those tough yards on a 3rd and 2.
Potential Concerns: This is not a team that is built to come from behind. They rarely score quickly, and rely a lot on controlling both tempo and the clock. If they fall behind by 14, or even 10 points, they have a tough time playing catch up. So, watch the 1st quarter and that can determine how things look.
Outlook: Denver lost to Oakland just last week, but we expect that at home, and with playoff advancement in the balance, we will see a more intense and more focused Gold squad. Can they get past Oakland at home, sure. Can they beat Houston on the road? I would not bet the ranch on that.
JACKSONVILLE BULLS (9-7)
The Skinny: The Bulls are the only Wild Card team with an actual winning record, but, look again at their year. They started on fire, winning 6 of 7 to begin the year. That means that they have gone 3-6 down the second half. That is troubling. Their rushing game is ranked last in the USFL, so they cannot run out the clock. Their pass defense is 18th, so they cannot stop teams from coming back on them. Those are troubling issues, and not typical of a playoff team.
Players to Watch: As much as we expect Jacksonville to rely on Eason to Blades and Jones, the key to this game is if Vince Workman can provide a solid threat on the ground. If the Bulls can get any semblance of a run game, it makes it that much harder for a defense to stay in nickel and dime formations all day, and that means Eason will have an easier time finding his big play receivers.
Potential Concerns: We have already hit on it. This is a team that can easily sprint out to a lead and then fail to hold it. Comeback wins are sort of the norm in the USFL, with so much riding on the passing game, so the inability to defend the pass is perhaps the roughest weakness to have.
Outlook: Unlike most teams in the league, racing to a 14-0 or even 21-0 lead is no guarantee for the Bulls. They need to play consistently across all 60 minutes and they need to keep the pressure on the other team by scoring in all 4 quarters. If they can do that, they can advance past New Jersey and then take their chances in a likely 45-42 shootout in Birmingham.
CHICAGO MACHINE (9-7)
The Skinny: Chicago’s offseason coup signing of Bernie Kosar was a bit of brilliance from Coach Schottenheimer. Kosar has helped Chicago to their first playoff appearance since their arrival in 1987. This is a Machine squad that needs two things, a good game passing and a bend-but-don’t break defense. If Kosar can distribute the ball to all of his receivers, the Machine can win a road divisional game against the Wranglers. If he is limited, they may have issues.
Players to Watch: Without Ricky Watters able to play, it is unlikely Chicago will have much of a run game, so their run game becomes the short pass, and that is where likely All-USFL TE Wessley Walls comes in. He is the only TE in the league to lead his team in receiving, with over 1,400 yards on the year. When he is occupying the middle of the field neither a LB or a safety can truly cover him. That also frees up the outside receivers, which always helps Kosar in the long run.
Potential Concerns: The defense is bad. 20th in yards allowed, including the worst-ranked pass defense in the USFL. And yet, if they can force teams to spend time moving down the field only to kick field goals, they can still win.
Outlook: While we love what Bernie Kosar delivers on offense, without Watters and with that porous defense, we don’t see Chicago getting far. Maybe they upset Arizona in 2 weeks, but then what?
PITTSBURGH MAULERS (11-5)
The Skinny: To go 11-5 and only get a Wild Card has to be disappointing for the Maulers. To have to face Washington in the first round has to be even more frustrating. But, this is a team that has won 6 of their final 7, including a win over the Federals in Week 10 (and a loss in Week 12). They can defeat anyone on their best day.
Players to Watch: We are not going to say Rozier, well, we just did, but we are not going to pick him as the player to watch. That player is DE John Bosa. Bosa has 13 sacks this year, and when he gets a sack, the Maulers tend to win. Yes, there are 10 other players on defense, but an active Bosa makes all their jobs easier. If Bosa can rattle Majkowski, the Maulers can repeat their Week 10 victory in RFK.
Potential Concerns: Alan Risher has had some excellent games this year, and a few where he just misses his targets. If he can find Louis Lipps early and often, it will be a good week for the Maulers, if not, or if he throws a few too many errant passes, it could turn ugly.
Outlook: We like the Maulers, but having to play a road game in the divisional round, against a Washington team that knows them well, is not the easiest draw. They would almost rather face Birmingham than the Federals just because of that familiarity. On a neutral field, Maulers-Federals is a toss up, but in RFK, it will be tough to walk away with a win for a second time this season.
ARIZONA WRANGLERS (10-6)
The Skinny: It is hard to remember that at one point Arizona was 8-2 and could have challenged for the best record in the league, but a 2-4 homestretch revealed some issues with the team. Yes, Charles Haley is killing it in his first year since coming over from Washington, and the combo of Clack and James can be deadly, but we all know what the concern is.
Players to Watch: Yup, it’s all about Scott Mitchell. When Robbie Bosco went down to a season-ending injury, Arizona was forced to turn to Mitchell to lead the squad. A big piece of the 2-4 home stretch slide was squarely on Mitchell. A 13-10 TD-INT ratio does not fill anyone with confidence. If he can shift that to 3-1 in a playoff game, the Wranglers D can do the rest, but if it is 1-3, they don’t look like a winner.
Potential Concerns: Mitchell to be sure, but this is a team that is first in the league in both points per game and yards per game, so as long as Mitchell does not actively hamstring the team, they can win most games. Our fear is that Mitchell seems prone to nerves and playoffs only intensify nerves.
Outlook: Ask us after 10 weeks, with Bosco in command, and we have Arizona as a championship favorite. Ask us now and we are not sure how they beat the Machine at home, much less a potential matchup with Houston in the AstroDome. Let’s just say we are not betting on Arizona to run the table.
WASHINGTON FEDERALS (12-4)
The Skinny: The Federals are legit. Yes, they had some surprising losses (New Orleans, New Jersey, and Baltimore) but those were part of a 1-3 start. Since then they have gone 11-1. That is a killer record and includes a win over the Stallions. This is a team that can scare almost anyone.
Players to Watch: We love the offense, but it is all about Dexter Manley and 4-man pressure now that we are in the playoffs. You know that Manley, whose 23 sacks tie Phil Hansen’s record, is itching to add more during the playoffs. And while Manley gets all the press, Jerome Brown is just eating double teams for lunch and still making big plays every single game. That D-line, even without Haley anymore, is still an offensive coordinator’s nightmare.
Potential Concerns: With Terry Kirby out, there is a lot of pressure on former FB Barry Word to carry the load. Washington’s only other run option is former Renegade Curvin Richards, who has flashed at times, but is just not going to get you explosive plays. If Word can do well on 1st and 2nd down, it makes life that much easier for Majkowski on 3rd down, and that can lead to a W almost every time.
Outlook: This is a team that has, and can, defeat the Stallions, even in Birmingham. If they can get front-4 pressure, they can force turnovers or 3-and-outs and then build up a lead. A dangerous squad that can win in several ways, we see a lot of potential in the Feds this year.
HOUSTON GAMBLERS (13-3)
The Skinny: At 13-3, this is a squad that has not shown a lot of weaknesses. If you look at their 3 losses the common theme is that Thurman Thomas was contained and Kelly had to win the game with his rather midling receiving corps. But every team has tried to follow this script, and most have failed, so what does that say about the Gamblers’ chances?
Players to Watch: As much as we want to talk about the mid-range defense, and the need for more QB pressure, we all know that it is about Thomas. If he can get 150 total yards, which is pretty common, then the Gamblers look like a winner. It is just that simple.
Potential Concerns: If Houston falls behind, taking away the run threat, then they are a lot easier to contain. A team has to have a fast start against them. That is where their biggest weakness lies.
Outlook: When you have one of the premier weapons in the game, you can go far. When you pair that weapon with an experienced Championship roster and a top QB, and now you are looking at potential dynasty category. If Houston can win another title, they will have to be considered a dynasty in the USFL, becoming the first club to win 3 titles. And they have the talent to do it.
BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS (14-2)
The Skinny: Coach Erhardt found lightning in a bottle when he drafted Brett Favre out of Southern Miss. Favre has been a record-shattering force of nature for the Stallions. After the retirement of Joe Cribs, the entire script has been flipped, the once conservative 3-yards and a cloud of dust Stallions are gone, and in their place we have the 14-2 sprint for 60 minute Stallions. This team is a dynamo, and as long as Favre can avoid his occasional interception sprees, they clearly look like the best team in the league.
Players to Watch: We are going to avoid the obvious and say either Danny Knight or Clarence Collins. With Dawsey listed as doubtful, we already know that Favre is going to look early and often for Ernest Givens and TE Shannon Sharpe, but this offense runs best when they have a 3rd option. Dawsey was a deep threat, neither Collins nor Knight are, but they are both solid possession recievers, and one of them will have to be there if Favre cannot connect on the big play to Givens.
Potential Concerns: Not many. Their first matchup will be against either New Jersey or Jacksonville, and barring some truly bizarre circumstances, we don’t see them losing that game. Washington poses a threat, and Pittsburgh can be a spoiler, but we look at this club and see a title as a very real expectation.
Outlook: We are putting our money on this squad. Yes, their defense is mid-range (10th), but when you are #1 in both scoring and offensive production, you don’t need a Top 5 defense to win a title. We think most of the nation wants to watch Kelly v. Favre in the Summer Bowl, because that would be pretty damn great.
OFFSEASON STORIES TO WATCH
While there is expected to be a smaller free agent pool this year than in recent years, that does not mean that we will not have some drama this offseason. With a wider gap this year than ever before between the elite teams, the midrange clubs, and the weak sisters, there will be a huge push for teams to restock their rosters and to, as much as possible, deplete the rosters of the league’s power players. Looking at those players who are still unsigned, and either have just become free agents or will once their playoff runs are done. Here is what we see:
The biggest name on the potential free agent list is Houston QB Jim Kelly, but no one on the planet expects him to do anything but resign with the Gamblers. The NFL could come calling, but more than likely the negotiations are already advanced with Houston and as soon as the playoffs end for the club, Kelly will become the highest paid QB in the league.
Looking beyond Kelly, the deepest pools are at receiver and on the D-line. Let’s start with defense. This year’s free agent crop includes some high quality targets with years of good play left in them. Among those likely to fetch top dollar we have Arizona DT Mike Lodish, Baltimore’s Joe Klecko, Birmingham DE Anthony Pleasant, Jacksonville’s sack leader in DE Jim Reynosa, Philly’s Will Fuller, Pittsburgh’s John Bosa, Portland DT Roland Putzier, Tampa’s William Perry, Washington DT Joe Phillips, and the biggest prize of all, Memphis’s ALL-USFL regular, DE Reggie White. White seems very happy with Coach Buddy Ryan and his defensive scheme, so he is unlikely to jump ship despite the issues with the Showboats on offense. The others seem far more likely to make a money play and move around the league.
Receiver is the other key spot to track, both wideouts and TE’s. Among the top talent available this offseason we find Portland's Cris Carter, Washington’s Terrance Mathis, Texas’s Dokie Williams, Tampa’s Chris Collinsworth, Oakland’s James Pruitt, New Orleans’s Michael Jackson, Memphis TE Keith Jackson, Jacksonville’s Lawyer Tillman, St. Louis’s Eric Martin, Chicago’s Michael Haynes, Houston’s Ernie Jones, Denver TE Jay Novacek. Carter and Keith Jackson will likely fetch the highest price from USFL and NFL clubs, but don’t sleep on Jackson, Jones, or Novacek.
Finally, among other positions there are some gems, though they are few and far between. Discounting QB Alan Risher, who will likely resign with Pittsburgh as soon as the season ends for the Maulers, the other big names to watch for include: FS Martin Bayless (ARZ), OLB Bryce Paup (BAL), T Emory Yates (BIR), LB Fred Strickland (DEN), LB Johnny Holland (HOU), C Jim Juriga (HOU), HB Alfred Jenkins (MGN), G Juan Castaneda (NJ), QB Cody Carlson (NJ), QB Timm Rosenbach (NOR), LB Ron Rivera (OAK), FB Ironhead Heyward (ORL), LB Winston Moss (ORL), FS Todd Bowles (PHI), T Gerald Perry (TBY), TE Chris Kelley (TBY), HB Barry Word (WSH), and FS Mark Kelso (WSH). Again, there is still time for some of these players to be resigned before we see a feeding frenzy, but we expect quite a few to jump to greener pastures.
NFL TALENT: With NFL-USFL transfer windows scheduled for August as well as February, there are two opportunities for cross-league signings. It is always hard to predict who will jump from one league to another. We have already highlighted the USFL stars who are free agents this summer, and we expect some to sign and play this fall in the NFL, but the same could also happen with NFL teams and their late free agents, not to mention those players who will become free agents in January and could sign on for a back to back season with the USFL in March. Among current NFL free agents still working on deals either with their own club, or with others, but available, there are some huge names still unsigned. Top among them is legendary QB Joe Montana, All-Pro HB Marcus Allen, former 49er safety Ronnie Lott, and former Jacksonville Bull wideout Gary Clark, all of whom are having issues with their current NFL teams and may be ripe for the picking.
Montana and Allen are of particular interest. After seeing how successful Bernie Kosar was in his first year as a veteran signing from the NFL to the Chicago Machine, how many teams would like to get their hands on Joe Montana. Sure, he may only have 1-2 seasons left in him, but as one of the biggest stars in football, he would be an immediate superstar on a USFL team struggling at QB (We are looking at you, New Orleans). Allen’s situation is quite different. The Raiders and Allen seem to be at an impasse, and there is a lot of hurt there. A USFL team could offer Allen the chance to start clean and the Raiders would prefer to have him sign with the spring league than with a team they would face each year. Allen is in the prime of his career and would be a huge add for any team that wants to boost their run game (Hello Jacksonviille!!). Lott also has a couple of good years left in him, and Gary Clark has been a reliable contributor since the early days of the USFL.
EXPANSION NEWS
News out of the NFL this week as we have our newest 1995 expansion club for the fall league. This past Wednesday the NFL introduced the Tennessee Copperheads. While many had anticipated that Nashville would be the selection for the fall league’s 30th club, there were apparently disputes between the league and the new ownership group regarding the name. While there was a grassroots movement for “Copperheads” to be the name, one that included fans getting thousands of signatures on a petition and actually mocking up uniforms, NFL Properties was apparently not happy with the idea of a team having a snake motif, concerned that it would not have broad appeal. It seems the ownership group, hoping to draw in enthusiastic fans from the grassroots effort, has convinced the NFL that Copperheads can work. The team and its new logo was introduced this week. The USFL can take some pride in the selection of two southern cities, Charlotte and Nashville as NFL expansion sites, as the proof of engagement and high attendance in the South comes directly from the success of clubs like Memphis, Jacksonville and Birmingham in the spring league. You are welcome, NFL.
The selection of Charlotte and Nashville, two non-USFL cities and two cities not among the USFL’s expansion finalists, is also good news for the league. The USFL is expected to announce the 23rd and 24th franchises at any time, after having already confirmed that the reborn LA Express and the Atlanta Fire would be the 21st and 22nd teams, beginning in 1994. Rumors have Columbus, OH as a frontrunner for a club in the Northeast/Midwest. Ohio is prime football country, and choosing Columbus provides not only a USFL-exclusive city, but also a solid regional rival for the Maulers without encroaching on Cleveland and Cincinnati NFL fanbases. There are reports coming out of our sources in NYC that the Columbus bid is all but signed, sealed, and delivered, and that the club may try to identify with the state rather than the city, as seems to be the case with their bid documents and logo.
The final club, like Atlanta is likely to be in an NFL city, but one where there is strong fanbase and room for growth. If LA is in the Pacific Division, Atlanta joins the Southern Division, an Ohio team could be in the Central or the Atlantic Division, which means that Boston (Atlantic) and Dallas (Central) could make sense. Boston's bid still has stadium issues, which the league has seen end poorly (San Diego to Tulsa, for example) so we expect they are out of the running. Dallas could fit well, especially since the city offers stadium options other than Jerry Jones’s Texas Stadium. With Jones being vehemently against sharing his stadium with a USFL club, a Dallas club would likely be looking at the Cotton Bowl as their home.
Of course, the league could also reconfigure the Pacific, moving St. Louis to a more natural fit in the Central Division, where they would have immediate rivalries with Chicago and New Orleans. If they opt for that, then Seattle is very much still alive as an expansion option. With the ability to provide a rival to Portland (rather than a 3rd Texas club), and the allure of an outdoor stadium in Seattle (Husky Stadium) as an alternative to dome football from the NFL, Seattle is very attractive. Add in a booming tech industry and a lot of corporate money in the region and we could see Seattle edging out Dallas. From what we hear, we may be only 1-2 weeks away from an announcement (if our sources can be trusted), so we shall see if our predictions are accurate or not.
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