USA Today, May 12, 1994
Two months into the 1994 USFL season and the dreams of the preseason are now settling into the realities evident in each week’s games. What can we say about the 1994 season so far? Well, there is certainly a good deal of parity around the league with 11 of the league’s 20 teams sitting at 4-4, and another 6 teams 1 game off that mark. Only Pittsburgh is more than 2 games over .500 while only St. Louis and Orlando find themselves more than 2 games below that mark. What does this mean for USFL fans? It means that for most fan bases the season is still wide open, that any team that can get hot now can make a move, and that we are likely to need all 16 weeks and a bunch of tie-breakers to determine who is going on to the postseason and who is going home. That is good for the league, and good for fans, but it does not help anyone’s blood pressure as teams seem unable to put together win streaks. Las Vegas has to be popping Tums trying to keep their stomachs settled as week to week it is nearly impossible to know who will come out on top. As we look around the league, let’s explore the best case scenario and worst case scenario for each club over the final 8 weeks of the season.
ATLANTIC DIVISION: PIT 62, NJ 5-3, PHI 4-4, BAL 4-4, WSH 4-4
The Maulers have the best record in the league, but New Jersey is right on their heels, and the rest of the division is not far behind. Baltimore has been surprisingly good, Washington has suffered without Don Majkowski, but he will be returning soon. While we like the Maulers’ chances to take the division, there is serious competition in this division.
PITTSBURGH: The Maulers have looked good on both sides of the ball. They currently rank 6th in points scored, 4th in yards, and the defense is top 5 in both yards and points allowed. That combo is a tough one to crack because it means the Maulers can win in a variety of ways. It is no longer Rozier, Rozier and Rozier, and that is a good sign for things to come in the Steel City. Looking at the rookie class, C Kevin Mawae has been a great upgrade at center, and Dorsey Levins, in limited action, has shown that he can be a solid contributor with a 4.3 yards per carry average in 45 carries.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 11-5, good enough to take the division title.
NEW JERSEY: Sam Wyche has the Generals’ offense looking good, currently 3rd in scoring, and the defense has had its moments and currently ranks 7th in PPG allowed. The key has been balance, and a reduced load for Herschel Walker. Rookie Bam Morris has yet to find his stride, averaging only 2.7 yards per carry behind the Generals’ main man, but Doug Flutie is having a strong year again under Wyche, currently with a 91.8 QBR, 1755 yards and 13 TDs. The defense has also had its moments, though last year’s defensive MVP Dino Hackett is finding it tougher sledding as teams gameplan to minimize his impact.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 10-6 and a Wild Card seems likely, though catching the Maulers is certainly possible.
PHILADELPHIA: The Stars are making very good progress under Coach Berry. They still have some work to do on offense, though being in the middle of the pack (11th in PPG, 12th in YPG) is often enough when you have a shut-down defense. The Stars are living off that defense which is 2nd in the league in both PPG and YPG allowed, enough to make them the #1 overall defense. And it is not all on one guy in Philly. They do not have a single player with more than 3 sacks, but have 8 players with at least one. Their secondary is making big plays, with both Lorenzo Lynch and James Hasty each with 3 picks. Their rookie class is still struggling to contribute, though Charlie Garner has flashed some talent backing up Kelvin Bryant.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 9-7, a possible Wild Card, and if that D gets into the post season, they could upset some folks.
BALTIMORE: The Blitz have been a pleasant surprise, but there remain a lot of doubters. This is a team that is 19th in passing yards and 16th in rushing. Despite their pedestrian offense, the Blitz have still pulled off some big wins, including a Week 3 win at Pittsburgh and wins over both Philly and the Birmingham Stallions. They have given up major yardage, but have been able to avoid giving up points (6th in the league in points allowed), so they are able to hang in games, but can this last? The Blitz need more out of the rushing combo of Reggie Brooks (513 yards) and Barry Foster (167 yards) to keep pressure off of Chris Miller. They also could use more impact from rookie LB Jason Gildon, who has seen his snaps per game increase, but so far without game-altering impact.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 7-9. We just don’t see enough from the Blitz to expect .500 or better.
WASHINGTON: This team is too talented to be at .500, though everyone and their uncle points to the QB position as the reason for that. It is true that Mike Hohensee (and in some moments Walter Lewis) has struggled to avoid mistakes and keep Washington in games. Hohensee’s 74.3 QBR is among the worst among players with 3 or more starts, and his 6 picks have not helped. But, with Majkowski expected back either in Week 9 or 10, there is still hope in DC that the Feds can make a late run. Barry Word and Terry Kirby are both above 4.0 yards per carry without the threat of a passing game, so if Majkowski can spark the aerial game, then the Feds could be a tough out the rest of the way.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 9-7 but possibly missing out on the playoffs, which would be a major disappointment for a team that had its eyes on a title this year.
SOUTHERN DIVISION BIR 4-4, TBY 4-4, MEM 4-4, JAX 4-4, ORL 2-6
Other than the Renegades, this division is about as even as it can get. Birmingham’s up and down performances have been an unpleasant surprise for Stallion fans. Most still believe their club will put it together and eventually win out in the division, but with 4 of 5 clubs at .500 right now, there is certainly a lot of incentive for the others to push each week. We love the resurgence of the Bandits under Jerry Glanville, and Memphis is discovering that maybe Mike Kelley is not done yet. If Birmingham cannot recover their 1993 form and rip through the next 8 weeks, this division could be wide open.
BIRMINGHAM: The Stallions absolutely did not see themselves being in a 4-way tie, or at .500 at this point in the season. They have had some inexplicable losses (@ St. Louis? Home vs. Baltimore?) and have simply been unable to play consistent ball. When they are on, they are really on, as was evident in their record setting 66-34 win over Orlando, but they have simply not been consistent enough on defense to avoid being upset. The Stallions are first in most important offensive categories behind Brett Favre’s arm (PPG, YPG, Passing), but the defense is 19th in yardage allowed and 16th in points allowed. A weak defense means they have to be in the zone on offense every week, and so far that has been too much to ask.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 10-6, with a tiebreaker win to get the division. We see improvement for the Stallions, and they are 4-1 in divisional games, so they likely only need to be tied atop the division to take the title and get the bye week.
TAMPA BAY: The Bandits have responded well to the arrival of Coach Jerry Glanville, improving to 3rd in the league in yards gained. A big piece of the puzzle has been the much-needed arrival of a legit #1 rusher in rookie Errict Rhett. Rhett’s 530 yards and 5 TDs may not be leading the league, but they are a huge leap over past years for the Bandit rushing game. On defense there are still some issues. Tampa still struggles to get pressure on the QB, but there has been enough improvement to believe that a playoff appearance is not out of the question. Even finishing 8-8 would be a solid first step for the Glanville era in Tampa.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 9-7 with a 50-50 chance of a Wild Card, depending how the rest of the 4-4 teams in the conference finish.
MEMPHIS: This was not the plan. Sure, 4-4 is a welcome improvement over last year’s debacle, but the expectation was that Kelley would start a couple of games and then pass the torch to rookie and local hero Heath Shuler. That has not happened as Kelley has been more than solid in the first 8 weeks. The veteran has over 2,000 yards and a 12-8 TD-INT ratio. That said, the Showboats are still having issues. They rank 17th in total yardage, though the return of a healthy Greg Boone could help there, and their defense has some issues with pass defense. The key for Memphis may not be replacing Kelley but adding some more diversity to the pass rush, to take pressure off of Reggie White. The key in our view is the performance of Santana Dotson across the line and Eddie Simmons coming on blitzes. If they can force teams to adjust away from White, they can be dangerous on defense.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 8-8. We just don’t see enough on either side of the ball to predict Memphis as a playoff team.
JACKSONVILLE: With Birmingham failing to live up to expectations, many would expect Jacksonville to be taking advantage and to have a lead in the division, but they too have been struggling to meet the expectations set last year. They are hovering around the 9th-11th position in the league in most statistics, with an offense that has been inconsistent (they still struggle to establish the run) and a defense that has shown a problematic tendency to give up big plays far too often, leading to their ranking as the worst pass defense in the league. We want to believe that the Bulls are playoff material, but the quality has not been there.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 7-9, We have to believe that the defensive issues will continue to haunt the Bulls, and without a reliable run game to eat up clock, they just depend too much on a defense that has not proven to be good enough.
ORLANDO: Do we have to say it? The Renegades are not good. Last in points per game, and last again in points allowed. That is a horrible combination. Coach O’Leary has a lot of work to do to get this team to be competitive again. Reggie Collier simply does not have the arm, or the legs, he used to, so a QB change may be down the road for the club. Their leading rusher, Todd Fowler, has only 373 yards and a 3.1 average, and their defense is just not good enough to be aggressive and take chances. We don’t see a lot of bright spots ahead for the Renegades, though their recent win at Philadelphia shows that they are still willing to play hard for their new coach.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 4-12. A bad year to need a new QB, because the draft does not have a lot of talent, though Steve McNair out of Alcorn State would be a popular choice. Perhaps fix the defense first and then hope there is a trade available for a “transitional” QB. We expect Collier to be offered up in the expansion draft, so O’Leary can have a fresh start.
CENTRAL DIVISION: HOU 5-3, CHI 4-4, TEX 4-4, NOR 3-5, MGN 3-5
Houston was expected to take the division, and they have a slight lead over the pack at the midway point, but Chicago, who most wrote off when Bernie Kosar went down, has relied on their defense to stay in the race, and Texas has enough talent to make a challenge as well. Even New Orleans, who many picked to be the league’s weakest team in Mike Ditka’s first year, has started to show a lot of fight, mirroring their coach’s tough attitude. Michigan has not had the immediate impact from the arrival of Montana and Marcus Allen that they have hoped for, but both have had moments and if they can put that together with an improved defense, they could still make a run.
HOUSTON: The Gamblers are who we thought they were, a solid team across the board, with a couple of dynamic offensive stars in Kelly and Thomas, and a solid team defense concept. 5-3 is about what we expected, so there have been few surprises here. The Gamblers are 2nd in both PPG and YPG and Thomas has moved into the top 5 of rushers again, so we expect Houston to hold on and keep hold of the division lead. They have a shot to become the first club to win 3 titles, especially if Birmingham’s D proves to be as bad down the stretch as they have been so far.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 11-5 and the #1 seed again in the West.
TEXAS: Of the two teams trailing Houston, the Outlaws are healthier and have their starting QB in the fold. The surprise this year has been how effective the Texas defense has been. They are currently in the Top 6 against both the run and the pass, and #3 in the league in scoring defense. That is a bit of a shocker, but much needed as their offense has not performed up to expectations. Quinn Early has not lived up to the need to replace Dokie Williams, and that has led to Texas being easier to defend. If the Outlaws can get more receivers into the game, they can be dangerous, possibly even challenging Houston for the division.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 10-6 and a solid Wild Card team.
CHICAGO: That the Machine are 4-4 without Bernie Kosar is a credit to the work that Coach Schottenheimer has put in. Blair Kiel has not been impressive, Scott Zolak even less so, and now, after signing Dan McGwire, there are rumors he could start out the second half of the season with the QB job. That chaos has been an issue, as has the inability of Ricky Watters to live up to his potential. Chicago is doing it with smoke and mirrors, and we just don’t think that is sustainable in the long haul of the year.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 7-9 and out of contention.
NEW ORLEANS: While 3-5 is hardly a record to boast about, wins over Texas, Houston and Portland are not flukes. The Breakers can still be dangerous, and are an upper half offensive team when Rosenbach and DuPree are on their games. The defense is still pretty shaky, giving up over 270 yards a game passing and 360 overall. We were really hoping to see more contributions from the rookie class, but so far only DeWayne Dotson at LB has really been a factor.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 6-10. We see a repeat of the first half of the year as very likely. Spoiler may be the best the Breakers can hope for.
MICHIGAN: Fans were likely a bit to pie-eyed over Montana and Marcus Allen to see that the Panthers still had major issues to deal with. The roster is just not there yet for this to be a playoff contender. Of the two new arrivals, Allen has flashed more, which makes sense in Coach Holtz’s scheme and with the other talent the Panthers have. They need to improve at WR to help Montana, and they need to improve on pass defense. Wins over the Generals and Outlaws were solid, but when they lose it is often by 20 points or more, and that is not a good omen for the rest of the year.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 6-10 and looking for a lot of help in free agency again.
PACIFIC DIVISION: OAK 5-3, ARZ 5-3, DEN 4-4, POR 4-4, STL 2-6
Oakland has started to see the real Bobby Hebert showing up, and that is bad news for the rest of the division, but Arizona can always rely on that defense to keep them in games, Denver and Portland have been more erratic, but both have enough talent to make a move if they can play to their abilities. Robert Drummond is having a career year for the Thunder, and with Dave Krieg coming back for the Gold, the Denver offense could start to impact games on a regular basis. All that said, we still see this as a race between the Invaders and the Wranglers, offense v. defense. And yes, St. Louis also has a pro football team, though the Knights have struggled on both sides of the ball all year and likely will continue to do so.
OAKLAND: It took a season, but we are finally seeing the Bobby Hebert that fans in the Bay Area hoped we would see last year. Bobby Hebert is over 2,200 yards passing at the midway point of the year, with a 22-6 TD/INT rate, one of the league’s best. Henry Ellard is on pace for one of his best years as well, and already has 12 TDs to his name. Siran Stacy is a little off pace, but that makes sense with the success Oakland has had in the passing attack. The defense is nothing to write home about, solid in yards against (4th) but not getting enough takeaways or QB pressure to keep scores down. Still, this looks like a solid contender as long as they can keep Hebert in the zone.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 11-5 and a possible division title.
ARIZONA: The Wranglers look like the team most likely to challenge Oakland in the division, largely due to their #1 scoring defense. Al Noga is benefiting from Charles Haley drawing double-teams, and leads the team with 7 sacks. Broderick Thomas and NFL ex-pat Bill Romanowski are gobbling up running backs and making TE’s fear the big hit. It is a defense that can shut teams down when they are on their game. The offense, well, it isn’t horrible, but it is not exactly blowing the doors open either. Tim Lester and Lionel James are splitting carries, and both are averaging just over 4 yards a carry, so that is good, but unless the Wranglers can get more out of receivers other than Trumaine Johnson, they may have difficulty with teams that can handle their defense. Rookie Darnay Scott has simply not made an impact yet, but needs to. With Arizona, expect a lot of close wins, and close losses down the stretch.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 10-6 and a possible #3 seed and a bye, if they can hold off the 4-4 clubs.
DENVER: A 4-4 first half is not the worst record when your starting QB goes down. Mark Brunell has been “adequate” in replacing Dave Krieg, but, as we seem to say every year, Denver’s offense is just not the kind that will scare anyone. They rank last in the league in yards but somehow are 8th in scoring. That is largely thanks to a defense that is #1 in yardage allowed and provides lots of short fields to the offense. Leslie O’Neill has had an immediate impact with 8 sacks, and the takeaways have been there for the Gold, with 12 fumble recoveries and 15 interceptions as a team. If Krieg can provide just a bit more on offense than Brunell has, Denver could sneak up on some folks.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 9-7 and a dangerous Wild Card team to face.
PORTLAND: We look at the stats and we think the Thunder should be 3-5 or 2-6, not 4-4. They are in the bottom quartile in scoring and have a sub-par defense, especially (once again) against the run. They have virtually no pass rush (Anthony Pleasant leads the team with only 3 sacks) and they are not getting turnovers. So how have they won half their games? We honestly don’t know. Admitedly they have gotten 2 wins against St. Louis and Orlando, so there is that. They seem ripe to take a second half slide as teams tighten up for a playoff push. Their Week 8 51-3 lambasting by the Michigan Panthers may be a troubling sign of what is to come.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 6-10 and in need of a talent infusion, especially on defense.
ST. LOUIS: After going 7-9 and 6-10 the past two seasons, St. Louis seems ready to bottom out this year. That is bad news for Coach Jack Elway, but with a squad that is 2nd to last in both offensive production and defense, there is not a lot of upside to the Knights. David Archer has been less than average, with 12 interceptions to only 8 TDs. Admitedly he has a receiving corps that might qualify for AARP membership with Eric Martin and Gary Clark well past their primes. They need more around Rocket Ismail to be able to compete. On defense, the Knights seem to be able to stop the run or the pass, but never both in the same game, so it is all about offenses picking which option they prefer. Their win over New Orleans this week (their first in 2 months) was a bit of a pick-me-up for the club, but they have a long road ahead of them and not a lot of games they can circle as win opportunities.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 3-13 and a fond farewell to Coach Elway at season’s end.
Looking at our preseason predictions, we think we might have been doing OK. We clearly did not see Pittsburgh being quite this strong, and we missed on Birmingham’s defensive issues, but other than that I think we are largely on target. Tampa is perhaps the only real surprise, but a pleasant one. So, do we want to adjust our preseason picks? Not a lot. Let’s look.
SUMMER BOWL: Our original pick was leaning towards a Houston-Birmingham rematch, and that seems totally viable at this time. What we would say now is that both Oakland and Pittsburgh seem strong enough to derail that rematch and mix things up a bit.
MVP: We, like everyone, thought it would be Brett Favre’s year, after being edged by Thurman Thomas last year. Favre looks like a good contender, but Jim Kelly and Bobby Hebert are still very much in the mix.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Errict Rhett was the easy pick as a premier college back coming to a team that really needed the help. He is proving us right by helping Tampa achieve a solid 4-4 start and a real shot at a playoff spot. Others in the mix include, of all things, a kicker. Chris Boniol has been lighting it up for the Outlaws, but there is no way a kicker wins this award. So, it is Rhett or, perhaps ironically, his teammate, LB Kevin Mitchell, who has a legit shot at a 100 tackle season for Tampa.
Eight weeks down. Eight more to go to reach the playoffs. Let’s get back to it!
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