1995 Week 16 Recap: Chutes & Ladders on the Season's Final Week

A week for fans of the Blitz, a huge disappointment for Renegade fans, and a huge debut for a player we did not think would ever hit the field this season as Washington gave former Colorado Buffs QB Kordell Stewart the start and all he did was go 20 of 25 and throw 3 TDs. Meanwhile, Jacksonville QB Chris Chandler reminded folks that the Maulers and Stars were not the only teams in the Eastern Conference, and the Western title came down to the wire as both Arizona and Denver flubbed the final game to back their way in.

The Stars needed a win to have a shot at the Division, the Blitz needed it to get back in the playoff hunt. Only one could get what they wanted, and on this day the homestanding Baltimore Blitz had just enough in the tank to outmuscle Philadelphia and punch their ticket to the postseason.

What made the Blitz victory even more surprising was that they had to go with Cody Carlson at the helm, as Chris Miller hurt his knee in practice on Thursday. Miller tried to get ready for Saturday’s game, but it was too much to ask, so Carlson got the start. The little-used backup had himself something of a day. Sure, he only completed 16 of 34 passing, and he only gained 180 yards in the air, but his 2 touchdowns included a game-winning strike to rookie Kyle Brady in the final minutes of the game.

Baltimore won despite being outgained on the ground and in the air. Barry Foster could only muster 58 yards rushing, compared to Charlie Garner’s 114. Chuck Long completed 30 of 41 passes (73%) and yet somehow Philadelphia was only up by 3, at 16-13 when Baltimore started their game-saving drive. So, what turned the game in Baltimore’s favor, as is so often the case, it was turnovers. Baltimore had none, while the Stars coughed the ball up twice. That proved to be the deciding factor as the Blitz held Philadelphia in check, ending the final drive of the game with a fumble on a 3rd and 9 catch that would have been a first down. It was a hit by LB Philip Yeboah-Kodie that produced the decisive play. Long had just found TE Marcus Pollard for the first down, when Yeboah-Kodie laid a solid hit on the receiver. The ball popped out from the grasp of Pollard and was quickly fallen on by CB Torin Dorn. The game, which had seen Philadelphia take a 7-0 lead and only relinquish control in the 4th quarter, now belonged to the Blitz.

With Baltimore players seeing on the scoreboard that Birmingham had a lead on Orlando, they knew that if they could get past Philadelphia, their playoff dreams would become reality. The defense held on for the final 5 minutes, helped only a little by a short 3-and-out offensive possession. The Stars simply did not have the energy needed to fight for the game, perhaps themselves deflated by the scoreboard, which showed Pittsburgh with a healthy lead on New Jersey.

In the end, Baltimore got what it wanted, a playoff berth, and Philadelphia, while missing out on the division title, still earned a bye week and the rest and recovery that entails. Next week Baltimore will be on the road for a Wild Card game, while Philadelphia rests, but this week showed that on any given Sunday (or in this case, Saturday) the underdog could rise up and bite the favorite.

PIT 38 NJ 23

Pittsburgh built up an early 21-7 lead and was never at risk against the Generals. Playing their starters for 3 quarters, the Maulers got 2 scores from Alan Risher and another from Rozier before sitting both to rest them. New Jersey hurt themselves as well with 4 turnovers, including 2 interceptions from rookie QB Rob Johnson.

WSH 35 OHI 10

Washington tuned up for a playoff run in an interesting way. They left most of their starters in the game, but gave the week off to both dinged-up starter Don Majkowski, and oft-maligned backup Mike Hohensee. Rookie talent Kordell Stewart got the start and went 20 of 25 for 213 yards and 3 scoresas he showed some promise for the future in DC.

MEM 26 SEA 13

The Showboats finish the season at 7-9 after knocking off a Seattle team that ended the year in dubious fashion with 12 straight losses. The expansion club just never found offensive success, even with former NFL QB Dave Krieg under center. The lack of a run game also hurt the Dragons, as it has all season. For Memphis, it was a balanced game from Shuler and HB Greg Boone. As both clubs look to next year, Memphis may be thinking about another playoff run in 1996, while Seattle just hopes to get healthy and get talent at some key positions.

ORL 28 BIR 38

Orlando came into the game with dreams of a Wild Card, but those quickly faded as Birmingham QB Brett Favre connected for 5 TDs on the day. By the half the Stallions had built a 24-10 lead, and they never looked back. Both Ernest Givens (109) and Lawrence Dawsey (125) topped the century mark in receiving yards, and while Craig Erickson had a good day, tossing 3 TDs and no picks, the Renegades saw their playoff hopes dissipate into the air as their defeat, coupled with the Blitz’s upset of Philly, locked the guys from Baltimore into the final open spot.

TBY 38 JAX 44

While the Bulls have to be concerned about their defense’s ability to contain a solid passing game, the offense’s production this week has to give hope to Jacksonville fans that their team can keep pace in a very competitive Eastern Conference postseason. Chris Chandler was the Player of the Week with his 5 TD performance against the Bandits. Dokie Williams, freed up by double coverage of Brian Blades all game, caught 6 Chandler passes for 152 yards, including a 63-yard bomb that found the Bandits defense unprepared. The win gives Jacksonville a final record of 10-6, their first 10-win season since 1991.

NOR 24 CHI 27

Chicago opted to keep their starters in the game against New Orleans, concerned more about rust in 2 weeks than a 2nd week of rest for the stars of the club. With that move, they made life a lot tougher for the Breakers, but New Orleans was game. Trailing 24-9 at the half, New Orleans came almost all the way back, thanks to 2 second half TD’s from Jamie Martin, but in the end, there was just enough of a cushion, added to by a Carney field goal in the 4th, for the Machine to finish the year an impressive 12-4.

STL 26 HOU 28

Houston did the opposite, offering Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas a chance to rest for 2 weeks in preparation for their home divisional game. Despite resting several starters, Houston still managed to hold off the Knights thanks to a solid play action game that allowed backup Chuck Hartlieb to connect on several deep balls, including a 79-yard TD to rookie Antonio Freeman. Freeman finished the game with 2 scores and a solid case for Rookie of the Year.

TEX 22 MGN 24

Michigan finished the year with some pride in closing out 8-8, while Texas, for seemingly the 20th time, slumped to the finish line, a decline over the final month that once again cost them a playoff spot. We have to wonder if it is something in the water as this is becoming a regular part of the disappointment cycle in San Antonio.

ATL 23 LA 20

In one last battle of expansion clubs, Atlanta got the win in LA to finish the year with 5. They started Eric Zeier in their final game of the season, and Zeier got in a solid workout, tossing the ball 55 times and completing 33 of those passes for 344 yards. For LA the star of the season was clearly WR Mike Pritchard, and he did not disappoint with 8 receptions for 117 yards for the Express.

OAK 17 ARZ 16

The Wranglers cannot feel good about the way they finished the year, losing a close game to Bobby Hebert and the Invaders. But, with a bye still theirs to enjoy, maybe they can rebound in 2 weeks when they host the Machine in Tempe. They will need a better game from Robbie Bosco to beat Chicago. His 220 yard, 2 pick game against Oakland was not exactly the thing of legends. The defense also needs to regroup after giving up 92 yards rushing to Siran Stacy. Arizona did log 9 sacks on the jittery Hebert, but they still were not able to keep the Cajun Cannon from connecting on a pass to Ellard late to give Oakland the win.

POR 23 DEN 10

Denver could have benefitted from Arizona’s loss, but the Gold had their own issues as Portland needed the win to snag a playoff spot. Portland got a solid game from Jack Trudeau (290 yards 1 TD, 1 Int) and Amp Lee added a TD run as the Thunder played well on both sides of the ball and leapt over Denver to claim the 4th place Wildcard. That win gives them a shot to take on Denver again next week, but in Portland.

We have our 10 teams. Baltimore, Denver and Portland are in. Texas, Orlando, and New Orleans are out. So what do we have to look forward to? Well, a rematch for one as the Gold will play the Thunder again next week. They will need to show more on offense if they hope to beat Robert Drummond and Co. in Portland. In the other Wild Card game we have the third round of a rivalry as #5 seed Baltimore will head just down the road to #4 seed Washington. This could be a tough matchup for the Blitz as Washington beat them twice already this year, and not in close games, a combined 47-9 beatdown.

We also know that in 2 weeks we will see #2 seed Jacksonville host the very tough Philly Stars and West #2 Arizona may have an even tougher task as they will host the 12-4 Chicago Machine in Tempe. Meanwhile Houston and Pittsburgh, safe with home field throughout the playoffs, will wait for the two Wild Card teams to know their opponents for their Divisional games.

BIG YEARS: In a season where no major records were broken and where we saw what many regard as a watering down of talent in the league, we still had some very strong performances. Brett Favre once again went over 5,000 yards passing, though fans seem to be obsessing more over his 25 interceptions, 7 more than the closest competitors (Brent Pease and, shockingly, Troy Aikman). Robert Drummond nearly went from Week 1 through Week 16 as the leading rusher in the league, finishing with 1,623 yards, the first back to average over 100 yards a game since Rozier in 1992. LA’s Mike Pritchard was a breakout star in a city of stars but could not hold on to take the receiving title. Yes, his 135 receptions were the highest total since Mel Gray went nuts in 1987 with 143, but he was edged out by Oakland’s Henry Ellard in yardage, as Ellard’s 1,498 barely surpassed Pritchard’s 1,487.

On defense the stars of the season were a diverse group, from Breaker LB Lamar Lathon, who finished the season by edging out Pittsburgh’s DeMetrius DuBose with 1 more tackle (128-127). Phil Hanson put in his second 20-sack season, the lone bright spot in a rough year in the Meadowlands. And for the first time we had 2 players from the same team finish in the Top 5 in sacks as Arizona’s Charles Haley and Al Noga finished 3rd and 4th overall, with 17 and 16 sacks respectively.

ROOKIES: Looking at the rookie class, we have to say that the Draft Class of 1995 acquitted themselves quite well. In addition to Tyrone Wheatley’s 1,334 yards and 11 TDs in Michigan, Antonio Freeman caught 74 passes for 1,266 yards to lead Houston, and Rashaan Salaam, who missed the final few games with an injury, still managed to rack up 824 yards and 7 TDs. On defense the rookies also shone, with Atlanta CB Tyrone Poole leading them all with 6 interceptions and 111 tackles. Craig Powell, the Ohio LB had 123 tackles as well, and Oakland CB Bobby Taylor added 5 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries for the Invaders. And there may be more to come from the rookie QB’s as Eric Zeier, Kordell Stewart, Todd Collins and Rob Johnson grow into the position. Johnson struggled in New Jersey, but we have seen some sparks from the other three.

INJURY UPDATE: Wee focus on our 4 Wild Card participants with this week’s injury report. Looking at the two divisional clashes between the Feds & Blitz and the Thunder & Gold, it looks like Portland is in the best shape. They will be missing WR Cornelius Reddick (Out), and possibly have a concern at CB with both Galloway and Herb Welch on the injury report, but with Welch listed as Probable, we believe they will be in OK shape. Denver has bigger issues with LB Marvcus Patotn out and DT Dave Butz questionable. They also lose two capable blockers on offense with guard Eric Pilgrim and TE Fred Baxter both on the injury report.

Washington will be without wideout Joey Walters, who is likely to miss the entire postseason, as well as tackle Ken Lanier, who was placed on injured reserve several weeks back. They have also listed DE Bobby Hamilton as out, though we are unsure if this is an injury that would last beyond this week, and have listed starting center Jim Pyne as questionable. For their part, Baltimore will, as expected, be without wideout Bill Brooks, DE Mike Piel, and possibly also HB Derrick Fenner (doubtful). Free Safety Joe King is listed as questionable with an ongoing groin injury that may limit his mobility.

As we prepare for the postseason, let’s take a where our ten playoff teams rank on both offense and defense, starting with the offenses.

Points Per Game: Houston (1), Pittsburgh (2), Philadelphia (4), Portland (5), Washington (6), Jacksonville (10), Chicago (11), Denver (14), Baltimore (18), Arizona (20)

Yards Per Game: Houston (2), Pittsburgh (3), Washington (7), Portland (9), Chicago (10), Jacksonville (13), Philadelphia (14), Denver (15), Arizona (16), Baltimore (19)

No surprise that Houston and Pittsburgh are at the top here while Baltimore and Arizona rank near the bottom of the league. What is interesting is to note how opportunistic Philadelphia has been, 4th in scoring but only 14th in yards, meaning they rely on their defense to provide turnovers and short fields to allow the offense to have more scoring opportunities.

Now, looking at the defenses…

Points Allowed: Baltimore (1), Washington (2), Philadelphia (3), Arizona (4), Chicago (5), Denver (7), Houston (9), Pittsburgh (11), Portland (12), Jacksonville (16)

Yards Allowed: Philadelphia (3), Washington (4), Denver (5), Baltimore (6), Chicago (8), Houston (11), Arizona (12), Pittsburgh (18), Portland (20), Jacksonville (22)

They say defense wins championships, well it certainly gets teams into the playoffs as 9 of the 10 playoff teams had defenses in the upper half of the league in Points Allowed. It is also clear in these rankings how Baltimore and Arizona got to the playoffs. But what we also see is that there are a few teams with Top 10 ranked offenses and defenses, and those teams could be very dangerous. Washington has a Top 5 offense (when Majkowski is in the game) and is Top 5 in both scoring and yardage on defense. Houston is an obvious offensive dynamo, but has a solid defense as well. Philadelphia can score, and their defense can keep others from scoring. That is a very good combo to have available.

OK, one last stat, turnover margin, because turnovers can be one of the most easily spotted markers of who will win or lose a game. Here are the turnover margins for each of our playoff teams:

Pittsburgh (+28), Jacksonville (+22), Chicago (+16), Denver (+15), Baltimore (+15), Portland (+12), Philadelphia (+11), Houston (+9), Washington (+5), Arizona (+4)

Now we see how the Bulls, despite their mediocre offensive and defensive rankings, can win the South and make the playoffs as a #2 seed. It also shows us how Pittsburgh was so dominant in their massive win streak. They can score and they can take the ball away. Looking at this number, we might worry a bit about Arizona, who are not faring well in this category compared to the others. And despite having a very solid defense, Washington is not a ball-hawking club.

OK, looking specifically at this week’s Wild Card games, what do we expect?

Baltimore Blitz (9-7) @ Washington Federals (11-5)

With Don Majkowski back under center, we expect Washington to be the better team here. They scored nearly 100 more points than Baltimore this season while allowing only 8 points more than the Blitz. If Baltimore cannot run the ball with Fenner dinged up, the balance shifts even further towards the Federals, who have two healthy running backs in Word and Kirby. Baltimore will need win the turnover battle, get some 3-and-outs, and blanket Herman Moore. Can they do that consistently? We are not so sure.

Our pick is Washington by 7.

Denver Gold (9-7) @ Portland Thunder (9-7)

Portland has the better offense, and Robert Drummond looks ready to bust out, but Denver’s defense has been solid and they know how to force turnovers, something that Portland has had some issues with. If Rashaan Salaam is back to 100% and if Denver can force Jack Trudeau into some mistakes, the Gold have a chance. Portland still has issues with big power backs, so Salaam could have a good day. But, if Trudeau protects the ball, we see Portland being able to wear down that Denver defense, especially with Dave Butz not in the D-line rotation.

Our pick is Portland by 3.