USA Today, February 21, 1996
It has been 4 years since a Western club has won the league title, and 5 years since a club from the Pacific Division had a representative in the big game. In a conference that has been dominated by the Houston Gamblers for the past half-decade (if not longer) the tendency is for close division races and erratic play, particularly in the Pacific Division, which alway seems to come down to a battle between a cluster of clubs hovering around .500. Will this year be different? Will Chicago, or Texas, or any club from the Pacific dethrone the Gamblers and make their way to the Championship?
BIGGEST PERSONNEL MOVES: WESTERN CONFERENCE
While the Eastern clubs might have had a bit more flash in their offseason, the West had its moments as well. Here are our picks for the most impactful signings and trades for Western clubs this offseason.
The soap opera drama in New Jersey got all the headlines, but Oakland’s choice to replace longstanding coach Dick Vermeil with former 2x Summer Bowl Champion Jim Mora was without doubt the best move of the offseason. Mora will bring a championship pedigree to the Invaders. He was without doubt the best coach of the USFL’s first seasons, and he knows what it takes to win in this league. Add him to a roster led by another 2x champion in QB Bobby Hebert and you could have instant magic. We love this move, and we are shocked that Mora was not the target of bidding wars when the Saints let him go, but what is the NFL’s loss is clearly Oakland’s gain.
Arizona is taking a shot that it can get from DT Russell Maryland what everyone in Dallas thought they would get when they drafted the big guy out of the U. Maryland did not reach his potential in the NFL, but the Wranglers still see something in the big guy. Of course, being on a line with Charles Haley and Al Noga (3rd and 4th respectively in sacks last year) could make life easy for Maryland. This will be a line that will give offensive coordinators nightmares, but only if Maryland can lock down the middle to free up Haley and Noga outside.
While not a major on-field impact player, St. Louis’s Frank Reich could have a huge impact in his ability to act as a coach on the sidelines. Much as New Orleans did several years ago when they signed Joe Ferguson, St. Louis is bringing in the veteran Reich to be a teacher, a mentor, and a moral support for young Todd Collins. Collins had some moments last year, but also made some typical rookie mistakes. Reich is a tactician and the eternal optimist as a player, and that could be just what Collins needs to take the next step into being a quality pro QB.
We mentioned the Flutie to Michigan trade in our Eastern Conference Preview, but perhaps we should have saved that for this preview, because while New Jersey will certainly be transformed by his departure, Michigan is likely to benefit from his arrival much more. After 2 years of somewhat disappointing results from the Joe Montana experiment, Michigan again foregoes the rookie QB experience, passing on this year’s poorly-regarded crop of QB’s and signs a veteran. In Flutie they get erratic performance, to be true, but also the potential for some game saving plays and amazing physical feats. Flutie is also a media darling, so expect a lot of his face on local TV in the state. We like this move. Michigan already has a strong run game in place, so Flutie can do what he does best, play action passing, some scripted bootleg run plays, and some key plays at big moments while the offense relies on Wheatley for the regular grind of yards and first downs. Could be just what the doctor ordered for the Panthers.
Finally a bit of an under-the-radar pickup. Oakland traded away Blair Thomas to Atlanta, and while everyone focused on Atlanta’s bizarre attempt to fix their run game with the former Penn State back, few commented on what Oakland got in return. Thomas left and the Invaders get DT Tony Siragusa in return (along with a draft pick). Siragusa is not going to remind anyone of Jerome Brown in Washington, but what he does very well is occupy double teams. He is a big, strong guy who can take pressure off the DE’s, freeing them up to rush the passer. With undersized J.J. Wierenga on one side and power rusher Garin Veris on the other, Oakland has not been able to muster much in pass rush the past few years, but perhaps having the Goose in the middle will help them generate more sacks and more pressures this year. Free up LB Ken Harvey to come on the blitz as well and they just may have something.
BIGGEST ROOKIE SIGNINGS: WESTERN CONFERENCE
Arizona is taking a big shot on a small college player, going cross-country to sign LB John Mobley from tiny Kutztown State in PA. Mobley has range, power, and savvy, but the competition level for Kutztown was not exactly pro level, so he will have a lot of learning and a lot of adjustments to make to his game.
Texas went for depth, signing a backup HB to Reggie Cobb in A&M’s Detron Smith, a raw local talent in A&M-Kingsville’s Jermaine Mayberry, and a wideout prospect in LSU’s Eddie Kennison. None of these players will be Day 1 starters, but all could see significant action this year. Having traded with St. Louis to get David Archer as a backup to Kelly Stouffer, the Outlaws are clearly focusing on depth and not immediate talent upgrades. It is an unorthodox strategy but one that may help them avoid the late season slump that often accompanies a growing injured reserve list by season’s end.
Chicago’s defense just got yet scarier. One of the best squads in the league added local terrorizer Simeon Rice from the Illini. Rice is a vicious pass rusher, and that can only help the Machine keep scores down, force turnovers, and give their offense a short field to work with. We expect Rice to be in the starting D-line rotation from day one, and an early candidate to be Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Houston, which seems to believe they are in an arms race on defense with Chicago, signed their own sack-specialist in DE Kavika Pittman from McNeese State. While Pittman does not have the Division 1 pedigree of Simeon Rice, his film shows as much speed and power as Rice’s. Houston is hoping he too can have an immediate impact on how offenses deal with Houston’s line.
LA used their local ties to sway big LT Jonathan Ogden to stay close to his UCLA roots by signing with the Express. A highly-regarded prospect, Ogden should take over the LT starting job from week 1, making Brent Pease very happy. If he proves as effective in LA’s power run game as he was as a Bruin, Marcus Allen may be the immediate beneficiary.
A lot of press went to Michigan’s selection of Mushin Muhammed at wideout, Jay Riemersma at TE, and Dusty Zeigler at center, all local products who come on the cheap for the Panthers, but the pick that really intrigues us is HB Winslow Oliver from New Mexico. Oliver has a shifty style that will be a good contrast to Tyrone Wheatley’s one-cut style. This could be a 1-2 punch to monitor this year.
Seattle, which had needs across the board, is hoping that their future is in the late rounds of the draft. Not only did they use a 7th round pick to secure Washington Husky QB Damon Huard, but they also took a flier on Central Washington’s Jon Kitna. Both have talent but both are raw. They are unlikely to contribute much this year, and we expect one or both to end up on the practice squad, but if one of them can develop into a quality starter, the Dragons may be set for years to come.
Don’t look now but the lowely St. Louis Knights may have come away with the best draft class in the league. Not only were they able to sign their #2 pick (after a futile effort to land HB Lawrence Phillips), Linebacker Ken Harvey of Illinois, but they also added guard Chris Villarial, wideout Amani Toomer, DE Mike Ulafale, and a sneaky pick late in the draft, CB Reggie Rusk from Kentucky, who could turn out to be a diamond in the rough.
MOST ANTICIPATED ROSTER BATTLES: WESTERN CONFERENCE
The first one is an easy prediction, in part because we just keep stressing it. Trent Green v. Robbie Bosco for the QB job in Arizona. After a decade of moderate success and equal levels of frustration it just feels like Arizona needs to turn the page on the Robbie Bosco era. We thought they would do it when they signed Scott Mitchell, only to watch when they traded him away to Orlando. Now they have a prototype QB in Trent Green, will the same happen or will they give him a legit shot to start this year?
Texas Outlaws #1 receiver. After trading away Eric Metcalf, the receiving corps to be utilized in Mouse Davis’s Run & Shoot seems lacking in star power. We get that the R&S tends to utilize multiple receivers and not a clearly defined #1, but someone has to be there when Kelly Stouffer needs a 3rd and 9 completion. The frontrunners to take on that role are Quinn Early and Lawyer Tillman, but don’t be shocked if rookie Eddie Kennison gets into the mix. He has looked very sharp in camp.
Nickel Back in St. Louis should be a dogfight. The top 2 CB slots clearly belong to Troy Vincent and Ron Pitts, but that all-important nickel slot is likely to be a fight between veteran Steve Israel and the fresh legs of rookie Reggie Rusk from Kentucky. With so many teams moving to 3-receiver sets as their base formation, having a solid, dependable nickel back is becoming a must.
Seattle’s TE group is an interesting fight. You have two 9-year vets in former Gambler Keith McKeller and former Outlaw Theo Young, but you also have two rookies vying for a key position, including Tony Johnson from ‘Bama and Jarius Hayes from just up the road at Northern Alabama. It is unlikely Seattle holds all 4 on the roster, so it is a battle between these 2 rookies to see who gets bumped to the practice squad.
The QB situation in New Orleans is our last point of interest. We all expect Jamie Martin to start the season, but who gets the #2 position and who ends up as the emergency-only #3 QB could be a fascinating battle. 3-year vet Gus Frerotte has the inside track, but New Orleans has a lot of interest in seeing how rookie Bobby Hoying transitions to the pro game. The former Buckeye was a surprise pick in the 3rd round, and by most accounts can become a reliable backup if not a marginal starter in the league, but can he unseat Frerotte this year?
CONFERENCE PREVIEW
CENTRAL DIVISION
HOUSTON (14-2 in 1995)—Predicted Finish: 13-3, Division Title
It would be foolish to predict anyone but Houston to win the division that the Gamblers have had a stranglehold on for so many years. The Gamblers have lost a few pieces, but they retain a core that is one of the deepest and most talented rosters in the league. So long as they can keep their stars on the field, the Gamblers will always be a tough out and a team others aspire to be. The loss in Summer Bowl 1995 will likely build their resolve even more to strive for a third league title.
CHICAGO (12-4 in 1995)—Predicted Finish: 11-5, Wild Card
Chicago is the clear challenger to the Gambler’s dominance. They came close last year after a fluke division title in 1994, but fell just short. The fact that they seem to do this with a backup QB each year is astonishing. Now, with both Zolak and McGwire back, there is a potential for a QB controversy if things don’t start off well, but we anticipate that Coach Schottenheimer will not waver once his starter is chosen, and he will continue to feed the ball to Ricky Watters, so whoever starts at QB is basically there to hand off and occasionally go for a play action bomb.
TEXAS (8-8 in 1995)—Predicted Finish: 10-6, Wild Card
Of the 3 mid-range clubs in the division, Texas just seems to be the best-positioned to make a run, that is if they can avoid their almost predictable late season swoon. The Outlaws always seem to be in the mix until mid-June and then for some reason fade away into the sunset. This year they were not very active in free agency, but did pick up some potential contributors in the draft, including WR Eddie Kennison, LB Zach Thomas, and HB Detron Smith (from nearby A&M). Is it enough to outpace Michigan and New Orleans for a Wild Card? Maybe, but let’s see how June looks in San Antonio this year.
MICHIGAN (8-8 in 1995)—Predicted Finish: 8-8
We like the move to trade for Flutie. In the right system, once which lets him use his feet as well as his arm, he can be a top tier QB. Give him a solid run game, which Wheatley can certainly do, and he can guide a team to victories, as he did a lot in New Jersey. A lot will hinge on the development of the receivers in Michigan, who are not exactly an intimidating lot, and on the aggressiveness of the Panther defense. The Panthers did add two potential targets for Flutie, both in-state cap-friendly signings, MSU’s Mushin Muhammad out wide and Big Blue’s Jay Riemersma at TE.
NEW ORLEANS (7-9 in 1995)—Predicted Finish: 6-10
Coach Ditka got the most out of his roster last year, and got a surprisingly good season out of Jamie Martin at QB. Now, with Timm Rosenbach out in Seattle, it will be Martin’s job to prove Ditka’s trust in him was deserved. The emergence of unheralded former UGA Bulldog Terrell Davis as a solid starting back was a second pleasant surprise last year. If Davis is for real, then New Orleans could outperform expectations once again. But we worry about the defense, supposedly Ditka’s forte, even with some big imports this year in former Buccaneer Chidi Ahanotu, and rookies Walt Harris at CB and UCLA’s Donnie Edwards at LB.
ST. LOUIS (5-11 in 1995)—Predicted Finish: 6-10
We think the Knights are a better team than their record indicated last year, especially if Todd Collins continues to mature and grow into the starting QB role. They played teams tough last year, and played their best ball in the final month of the season. In the offseason they added some interesting pieces in WR Amani Toomer of Michigan, LB Kevin Hardy of Illinois, backup QB Frank Reich from the NFL, and in DT David Wise, acquired in the trade that sent David Archer to the Outlaws. We think they will be better this year than last, but that may not lead to fewer L’s in the standings.
PACIFIC DIVISION
PORTLAND (9-7 in 1995)—Predicted Finish: 10-6, Division Winner
Of the three teams that clustered at the top of the Pacific last year, we like Portland as the most improved and most likely to break out and take the division crown. As usual their big weakness remains run defense, but Coach Tobin did not stand pat, signing three rookies to strengthen the center of the defense. While none are likely to be starters on Week 1 we like all three: SS Je’Rod Cherry, LB LaCurtis James, and mostly DT Paul Grasmanis as solid run stoppers at each level. If they can get better against the run, the Thunder have the talent on the offensive side, especially in league rushing champion Robert Drummond, to win a lot of games.
DENVER (9-7 in 1995)—Predicted Finish: 9-7, Wild Card
Denver is what Denver always is, a plugger, a tough defense and an adequate offense. Nothing flashy, few big names, but solid talent throughout the roster. They were not big players in free agency, as usual, and their draft was solid but without flash, as usual, but somehow this tends to work for the Gold. We like the early pick of WR Alex Van Dyke from UNLV, who we expect to be dynamic on kick returns even if he is not a starter on offense. We also like the meat & potatoes pick of tackle Jason Odom from Florida to eventually move into the RT spot, key with a lefty QB like Mark Brunell at the helm.
OAKLAND (7-9 in 1995)—Predicted Finish: 9-7
We are picking Oakland to potentially rise out of the pack and even to challenge for the division title. Why? Well, Jim Mora is why. The former Philadelphia Stars coach returns to the league after a stint with the New Orleans Saints in the NFL. He is a master strategist, a great motivator, and will get the most out of this roster, which means getting the most out of QB Bobby Hebert. With Mora and Hebert together, the Invaders seem primed to make a run. Their roster is one of the oldest in the league, and honestly we don’t see a lot in their rookie class that will change the dynamics by the bay, but we have faith that Oakland has the leadership it needs to win the close games you have to win to take this division.
LOS ANGELES (4-12 in 1995)—Predicted Finish: 7-9
Yup, we are predicting the LA Express, in their second season, to overtake last year’s Division Winner and improve to nearly .500 in their second year. We just see too much talent on this roster to keep them at the bottom of the division. QB Brent Pease had a really strong year on a weaker team last year, and we just cannot imagine Marcus Allen doing anything but improving on 1995. LA added some depth with rookies like immediate starter Jonathan Ogden at LT and TE Rickey Dudley from Ohio State. They added Bernie Parmalee as a change of pace to Allen in the backfield, and while their receiving corps is not deep, Michael Pritchard was a revelation last year. If either Darnay Scott or Patrick Rowe can develop some consistency, the Express offense can be a league leader. Now…about that D…
ARIZONA (9-7 in 1995)—Predicted Finish: 6-10
Maybe we are being too harsh here, but we see that the Arizona offense is just not good, and we also see that the Wranglers did not pull the trigger on a new QB, so once again it will be Bosco leading a vanilla offense into the season. Without Lionel James, the Wranglers are without spark on offense. Adding unknown quantity Karim Abdul-Jabbar at HB might help with that, but the big issue remains the QB position and cautious Bosco is not the answer. Will Coach Tollner give Trent Green a shot to supplant Bosco? Can Green add dynamism? He has a strong arm but he is a bit raw and a bit stiff also. We just don’t like the direction, or lack thereof, in Arizona’s offense, supposedly Coach Tollner’s expertise. If we don’t see more, it may be Tollner’s downfall.
SEATTLE (1-15 in 1995)—Predicted Finish 4-12
We expect the Dragons to make strides this year. How could they not after only a single win in their first season? They finished last in all 4 major statistical categories, which means they needed improvement at nearly every position. They addressed QB first, jettisoning Dave Krieg and signing Timm Rosenbach. They also added support for their QB in LT Lomas Brown from the NFL’s Lions. They drafted another tackle in Auburn’s Willie Anderson, two tight ends (the better of which in camp has been Alabama’s Tony Johnson) and used late picks to sign both Brock Huard and Jon Kitna as developmental QBs. What they did not do was make a big signing on defense. That will hold them back this year, but they do seem to be intent on building a roster that can slog out wins in the rain and wind of Husky Stadium. We don’t see them making a huge stride this year, but they are better than last season if that is any consolation.
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