We start our preview of the 1997 USFL season with the Eastern Conference. Last year Baltimore raced out to a 12-1 mark before slumping just a bit in the final weeks. They were undone in the Conference Final by a Tampa Bay squad that had won 8 straight. Tampa would go on to give the Houston Gamblers all they could handle before eventually bowing to the Western Champs. But what of this season? Who is stronger? Who may be slipping a bit? Could there be a surprise team? Can Pittsburgh return to their 1996 form or will Baltimore dominate the Atlantic. In the past 5 years we have seen Baltimore, Pittsburgh (2x) and Washington (2x) all claim the Division Title. In the Southern Division, it has been just as wild, as 1996 saw Tampa take the crown, while in 1996 it was Jacksonville, and before them both Birmingham and Memphis took the lead. Could this year be the year for Orlando to step up?
To sort things out we are going to use our USFL Power Rankings to run through the conference, and along the way we will look at the departures and arrivals on each club, talk about coaching security, and then give our best guess of how each team will finish. So, let’s get started.
BALTIMORE BLITZ (#1 in East & Overall)
Departures: QB D. McManus (FA), C J. Burch (FA), DE C. Buchanon (FA), LB M. Jones (FA)
Arrivals: LB Mike Junkin (FA), LB Duane Bickett (FA), LB Tarek Salah (ROOK), QB Wally Richardson (ROOK), FB Obafemi Ayanbadejo (ROOK), DT Grady Jackson (DT)
Coaching Situation: Coach Infante seems about as entrenched as a head coach can be. The team looked really good on defense last year (#1 in several categories) and while they did suffer some turnover, they should still be solid. He will need even more from their offense, but he is supposed to be an offensive guru, so it is not too much to ask.
Outlook: The fact that the Blitz are rated as the best club in the league in our power ratings sure is a big leap from last February. They made a lot of believers last year, but now need to cash in on that potential. We love the addition of a big FB to plow the path for Barry Foster, and the revamped LB corps should be a bit more aggressive than last year’s bunch. This club is stacked on defense, and that will take them far.
OUR BEST GUESS: 12-4 and 1st place in the Atlantic.
TAMPA BAY BANDITS (#2 in East & Overall)
Departures: DE A Mitz (FA), LB K. DeLong (FA)
Arrivals: LB Derek Smith (ROOK), FB Jerold Sewell (ROOK)
Coaching Situation: Jerry Glanville was on the hotseat after two mediocre seasons in Tampa, but last year’s run gave him a lot of rope, now let’s see if he hangs himself or if he helps Tampa go even further. He needs to continue to let Aikman and company play vertical football while perhaps helping that defense get just a bit better.
Outlook: Tampa Bay was expected to be decent, but went to a whole other level in the second half of the season. In the offseason the Bandits focused on resigning their two big Free Agents, QB Troy Aikman and TE Ben Coates. They were successful with both, but that kept them from making a lot of moves to improve the roster. Their big hope is that this was a team on the rise and that they have not reached their full potential yet.
OUR BEST GUESS: We like Tampa, but the South is hard to figure. They could win it all easily or fall back to the pack. Our guess is that they barely stay ahead of some hungry teams. 10-6, 1st in the South.
PHILADELPHIA STARS (#3 in East & #7 Overall)
Departures: QB E. Kramer (FA), FS T. Hauck (FA), T C. Conklin (RET), DT E. Tuaolo (NFL)
Arrivals: T Emory Yates (FA), WR T. Brown (NFL), LB P. Duckworth (FA), HB G. Milburn (Trade), QB J. Delhomme (ROOK), DT Seth Payne (ROOK), LB Mike Crawford (ROOK)
Coaching Situation: Coach Berry is secure enough with Philadelphia, but fans are nervous that the team is getting a bit old and a bit slow. They are not going to be a fireworks show, more of a slow burn, but the team is solid and that can do a lot for a coach.
Outlook: We like rookie Seth Payne to help with the Stars’ run defense, and we think Mike Crawford will get some snaps as well. Trading for Glyn Milburn could help on 3rd downs, but the absolute key to the Stars’ offseason was stealing away Emory Yates from the Stallions. A premier right tackle, Yates could really invigorate the Stars run game, which takes pressure off of Chuck Long and means more sustained drives to help the defense catch their breath.
OUR BEST GUESS: Philadelphia may not be ready to catch up to Baltimore, but they will be in the playoff hunt for certain. 10-6 and 2nd in the Atlantic.
PITTSBURGH MAULERS (#4 in East and #8 Overall)
Departures: QB A. Risher (RET), C R. Hemphill (NFL), CB L. Lang (FA), DT C. Veasey (FA), QB J. Fourcade (FA)
Arrivals: CB Mike Davis (FA), T Doug Reisenberg (FA), T Paul Gruber (NFL), LB K. DeLong (FA), C J. Burch (FA), WR Derrick Mason (ROOK), FB Nick Sualua (ROOK), QB Mike Cherry (ROOK)
Coaching Situation: With the departure of Ted Marchibroda the Maulers start a new era. They promoted Emmitt Thomas to be the face of the franchise as the club’s first ever African-American coach, and Thomas immediately began putting his stamp on this team, adding 3 offensive linemen to return to what he called “Bulldozer football”. With Mike Rozier, the ageless wonder, back in the fold, that bulldozer strategy may just help Pittsburgh return to the top of the division.
Outlook: We love the signing of two solid tackles and a center. Mike Rozier and Robbie Bosco must love it as well. Yes, Pittsburgh took a shot at rookie QB Jim Druckenmiller, which cannot make Bosco feel great, but he will be the man this year and if the Maulers can run the ball, he can be successful. With Louis Lipps back in action alongside Raynard Brown and rookie Derrick Mason, the play action game could be quite dangerous.
OUR BEST GUESS: We still think there will be some “getting-to-know-you” pains on this squad, but they could still compete with Philly and maybe even Baltimore for the division. 9-7 and 3rd in the Atlantic.
MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS (#5 in East and #9 Overall)
Departures: LB D. Smith (FA), DT C. Maxey (FA), T N. Randall (RET), HB T. Agie (RET)
Arrivals: G Dave Cadigan (FA), HB Travis Jervey (FA), FB Larry Centers (NFL), LB Sam Rogers (NFL), TE O.J. Santiago (ROOK), DT Barron Tanner (ROOK)
Coaching Situation: After last year’s bizarre outburst and firing of Buddy Ryan, Cam Cameron has a lot to prove. He got the Boats into the playoffs last year, but now expectations will be for him to repeat the feat in a very even division top to bottom (well, maybe not Atlanta).
Outlook: Memphis is a bit of an enigma. They lost some talent, especially on the two lines, but signing Cadigan can help that. We like Larry Centers as a receiver but it seems that Moe Williams needs more of a straight line blocker in front of him. Once again it looks like Heath Shuler will have to throw the ball 50 times a game for Memphis to compete with some of their division foes. Reggie White is still the Minister of Defense, but there is not a lot of firepower behind him.
OUR BEST GUESS: We are not sold on the Boats this year. We think they will slip down a notch or two, just because this division is so dynamic. 7-9, 4th in South
ORLANDO RENEGADES (#6 in East and #11 Overall)
Departures: TE M. Cook (FA), T R. Curry (FA), LB D. Bickett (FA), LB T. Green (RET), LB V. Waiters (RET), CB Reynolds (RET)
Arrivals: FS Pat Ellers (FA), WR Keenan McCardell (Trade), LB Greg Biekert (FA), QB Scott Zolak (FA), LB Dante Jones (FA), SS LeRoy Butler (FA), WR Reidell Anthony (ROOK), DT Pat Williams (ROOK), LB Dexter Coakley (ROOK)
Coaching Situation: Coach O’Reilly was another hotseat guy who saved his skin with a good second half last season. He may be seeing smoke but we don’t think there is fire here in the short term.
Outlook: Orlando was one of the most active teams in the offseason, but with 2 of their starting 4 linebackers retiring, they had to be. Signing Greg Biekert and adding Dexter Coakley in the draft add speed and ferocity to the Orlando linebacking corps. Adding both rookie Reidel Anthony and vet Keenan McCardell in trade from New Jersey help boost the Renegades passing game. The key for Orlando, especially on defense will be how quickly the new guys, including 2 possible new starters in the secondary and a big, but raw, Pat Williams on the D-line, can get on the same page.
OUR BEST GUESS: We have Orlando as a dark horse for the Summer Bowl. We like the moves they have made, their mix of vets and young talent, and we like the aggressiveness of the front office. Do they have enough to overtake Tampa? Maybe not, but we think they are best positioned to try of any club in the division. 10-6, 2nd in South.
JACKSONVILLE BULLS (#7 in East and #14 Overall)
Departures: WR D. Williams (FA), HB J. Morris (NFL), DE G. Hinkle (FA), CB D. Bryant (RET), C T. Anderson (RET)
Arrivals: WR Brian Stablein (NFL), DT Michael Dean Perry (FA), HB Kenny Bynum (ROOK), QB Danny Wuerfel (ROOK)
Coaching Situation: Coach Fassel suffered through a rough season last year, sliding out of contention with a club many thought could go all the way. He will need to show an ability to rebound this year or he could be in trouble. Jacksonville has talent, they just need to play within themselves and not give away games.
Outlook: We think the Bulls have enough talent to challenge Tampa and Orlando, but it comes down to leadership, and we are not sure Fassel gets the most out of his players. The signing of big DT Michael Dean Perry away from Denver should bring immediate dividends. We are not so sure about losing Dokie Williams and signing only Brian Stablein from the NFL in his place. That feels like a lateral move at best, and more likely a downgrade.
OUR BEST GUESS: 8-8, 3rd in South
WASHINGTON FEDERALS (#8 in East and #15 Overall)
Departures: QB D. Majkowski (RET), T K. Lanier (RET), CB L. Lyles (RET), DT M. Bouette (FA), G C. Novitsky (FA)
Arrivals: T Melvin Tuten (FA), QB Eric Kramer (FA), SS Louis Oliver (FA), WR Yatil Green (ROOK), CB Michael Booker (ROOK), G Steve Scifres (ROOK)
Coaching Situation: Coach Hackett has some issues to address, most importantly the transition to a very different QB in Kordell Stewart. We expect him to have a year to sort that out before the pressure is really on for results, and good thing because Washington simply does not look like a world-beater right now.
Outlook: This will be a very different Federals squad without Don Majkowski. We all knew Stewart would take over eventually, but is now the best time? Washington brought in Eric Kramer just in case, but shifting an offense from the Majik Man to Kordell Stewart, and then to Kramer, would be a rough transition. But, Washington still has Jerome Brown and Dexter Manley on that D-line, so they can still win in the trenches if that is how they have to win games.
OUR BEST GUESS: 6-10, 4th in Atlantic.
BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS (#9 in East and #17 Overall)
Departures: T E. Yates (FA), HB J. Joseph (FA), DT B. Sowell (FA), WR T. Dixon (NFL)
Arrivals: T. Alan Kline (FA), DT Kimo Von Oelhoffen (NFL), LB Henri Crockett (ROOK), WR Marcus Robinson (ROOK), FS Marcus Wimberly (ROOK)
Coaching Situation: Coach Erhardt still has a lot of good will after 2 really strong seasons and a league title, but he has to do something to get the rest of this team up to the quality of his QB. It cannot be shootout after shootout because the defense cannot contain anyone. We saw how poorly that went last year.
Outlook: Birmingham still has major issues on defense. That seems obvious. We like the combo of Stephen Davis and Mike Alstott in the backfield, but Erhardt has to give them more touches. These are backs who get stronger as the game goes, but 15 carries is not going to do it. It cannot all be on Brett Favre’s shoulders.
OUR BEST GUESS: 6-10, 5th in South.
OHIO GLORY (#10 in East and #19 Overall)
Departures: HB Curvin Richards (NFL), DT Pio Sagapolutele (FA), QB Rickey Foggie (FA), LB Dean Lyttle (NFL)
Arrivals: QB David Klingler (FA), HB LeShon Johnson (NFL), T Jerry Wunsch (ROOK), QB Koy Detmer (ROOK), FB Daiman Shelton (ROOK)
Coaching Situation: Coach Saban had a very good 2nd season with Ohio, garnering a lot of support in the Columbus area by knocking off some quality teams. Fans in mid-Ohio hope for more of the same this year.
Outlook: Ohio could be a surprise pick this year. A lot will depend on QB Jeff Hostetler. When he went down last year the wheels fell off the bus. Management added David KlinGler and rookie Koy Detmer from BYU to the QB group to avoid a repeat of that, but it still comes down to playing solid defense, hoping Hostetler stays healthy, and finding a way to turn Eddie George into the 1,200 yard rusher we all think he can be.
OUR BEST GUESS: 6-10, 5th in Atlantic
NEW JERSEY GENERALS (#11 in East and #23 Overall)
Departures: LB C. Spielman (FA), LB J. Fields (FA), CB K. Jackson (NFL), C M. Baab (RET), WR S. Schwedes (FA)
Arrivals: CB/S Jason Sehorn (NFL), WR Malcom Floyd (FA), FS Brian Dawkins (FA), DE Marcellus Wiley (ROOK), LB Keith Mitchell (ROOK), QB Todd Bouman (ROOK), LB Dwayne Rudd (ROOK)
Coaching Situation: Coach Knox has bitten off quite a situation in New Jersey and while most fans in the NYC area seem to have more issues with the management in general, at some point Knox is going to have to start producing wins to hold the wolves at bay. That looks like a tall order with the current roster.
Outlook: New Jersey appears to have had a pretty strong draft, or at least one which will produce several potential starters. Wiley at DE, Rudd and Mitchell at LB, and even Rickey Parker at CB could find themselves getting a lot of playing time this year, in part because the rest of the roster is particularly in need of upgrades. It is going to be a long year for New Jersey again.
OUR BEST GUESS: 4-12, 6th in Atlantic.
ATLANTA FIRE (#12 in East and #24 Overall)
Departures: DE Steve Rogers (FA), TE F. Wainright (FA), LB Juan Long (FA)
Arrivals: FS Charles Mincy (FA), CB Tyrone Legette (NFL), G Chris Dalman (NFL), WR Lake Dawson (NFL), FB Zach Crockett (FA), HB Tiki Barber (ROOK), CB Ronde Barber (ROOK), TE Greg Clark (ROOK)
Coaching Situation: With the dismissal of Dan Reeves and the hiring of Sherm Lewis, Atlanta heads in a very different direction. Lewis is known for offensive innovation, and the big question there is whether or not that means the Fire will rely on Cliff Stoudt or try again with Eric Zeier. In either case, it looks like they will be once again trying to find a running game. Signing Zach Crockett as a blocker and then adding flashy rookie back Tiki Barber to the mix is the latest attempt to develop a run game in the Peach City.
Outlook: Atlanta still has a very “expansion team” roster, but the ownership seems committed to quick improvement, having spent some money to bring in players from the NFL, from other USFL squads and to sign some big ticket rookies. Is it enough? Probably not enough at this moment, but perhaps in a year or two these moves will pay off.
OUR BEST GUESS: 4-12, 6th in Atlantic
PREDICTIONS
While we will save our postseason predictions for our Western Conference preview, we will finish today’s article with our look at individual achievements for the 1997 season. Our reining MVP has retired, so that honor will be a race to fill some big shoes. We have several new coaches, and we know that it is often a first year coach who wins Coach of the Year as their team gets an immediate boost, and we have a crop of rookies who are expected to immediately take on a starting role, so lots of potential ROTY candidates there as well. So who do we see rising to the top? Let’s take a look.
LEAGUE MVP: While in most years this would be a battle of the QB’s, we think 1997 is primed for either a receiver or a running back to take the title. Sure, Troy Aikman, Mark Brunell, or Chris Chandler could have a monster year and take the title, but if they do not there are some strong candidates outside of the QB position. Joey Galloway, the speedy wideout of the Ohio Glory, came closer than anyone in years to reaching the coveted 2,000 yard mark. Only a late season injury to his QB kept him from eclipsing Eric Truvillion’s record for receiving yards, but that injury also highlighted how dependent a receiver is on QB play.
If Jeff Hostetler can connect with Galloway again the wideout could come close to the record again, but is that enough for an MVP? If Ohio wins only 5 or 6 games can they really boast the league MVP? And if Hostetler, who is not getting any younger, struggles or gets dinged up, how can Galloway rise? No, we think a better shot is if a USFL running back busts out this year and challenges Herschel Walker’s rushing record. The candidates are pretty obvious as there are only a few teams in the league whose offenses are geared towards the run. Portland’s Robert Drummond has led the league in rushing the past 2 years and the Thunder still seem dedicated to feeding him the ball, so he has to be a frontrunner. In Michigan, the Panthers rely on play action passing, and that means Tyrone Wheatley has to getting 20-25 touches a game. Wheatley faded down the stretch last year, and there are concerns that the workload is too much for the back. Mike Rozier is 33 and while his 3rd place finish in the rushing title last year was impressive, the grind of 14 seasons is clearly getting to the shifty back.
Our pick is a bit of a darkhorse, but one we think is on the rise and with a team that will feature his talents, and that is New Orleans Breaker Terrell Davis. Davis is a beast of a back, able to run through, around, over, or past defenders. Coach Ditka will not be afraid to give him the ball time and again, to grind down opponents. We saw him do this with Walter Peyton while coaching the Chicago Bears and we fully expect that with Jamie Martin at QB, the Breakers will look to Davis to control the pace of games, to wear down defenses, and to help set up the vertical game. So, if it is not a QB, our pick for MVP is the former Georgia Bulldog, Terrell Davis.
COACH OF THE YEAR: This award almost always goes to the leader of whichever team makes the biggest leap from the year before. That is tough to predict, and when we look at new coaches around the league, we are not sure any of those squads is ready for rapid improvement. We could see it possibly going to Pittsburgh’s Emmitt Thomas, but he inherits a team that won the title 2 years ago, so a rise up the standings is more of a return to position than a great improvement. We don’t see Atlanta suddenly rocketing up the Southern Division standings, and Arizona also seems like a team that will need a couple of years to mature for Coach Shell. Cam Cameron is technically a new coach in Memphis, but he already took the Showboats to the playoffs last year after the Buddy Ryan fiasco, so would it be a shock if they returned?
So, not a new coach. Which team could be a big riser this year and propel their coach to the honor of COTY? Our pick is whichever club can finally end the Houston dynasty in the Central Division. There are several contenders as we all pretty much expect the Gamblers to take a step back this year as they have to redesign their entire offense without Kelly at the helm. You have last year’s surprise team, St. Louis with that lock down defense, you have the Panthers who also took a swing at the title last year. You have Mike Ditka in New Orleans, who seem poised to make a title run, and you have Marty Schottenheimer in Chicago, who still has a pretty solid roster to work with. Of these 4 clubs we like the odds for the Panthers, and if the Panthers can rise out of the pack, especially if they can win the division by more than just a tie-breaker, then Coach Skip Holtz becomes our nominee for Coach of the Year, because with the king (Houston) stepping down, there will be a war of secession in the Central division and the winner there will deserve accolades for making it out alive.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: The obvious choice is QB Jake Plummer who steps back into Sun Devil Stadium after a pretty illustrious career at Arizona State already named the starter. But while we expect great things from the young gunslinger, the Wranglers are still in pretty rough shape across the roster. Wins will be hard to come by, and this first year may be a tough one for the plucky QB. It is far easier for a rookie coming into a pretty good team to be placed into a position to get immediate results.
So who fits that bill? Certainly not Tiki Barber, who the Fire hope can finally get them a decent ground game. The Fire are also not ready to ascend this year. What about Troy Davis in Oakland? Not with Stacy still the starter. Antowain Smith in LA should be the feature back all season, and the Express have a good passing game to balance things out. But our pick is going to be a bit of a gamble. We like Corey Dillon in Seattle. The Dragons look to have some talent on that offense, enough to possibly challenge in a weak division. If Seattle can get to 8 or 9 wins this year, and if they can maintain balance between the pass and run game, Dillon has a chance to bust through, gain 1,200 yards or more and snap up this title. If not him, then our best guesses would be either Smith, or perhaps even a defender like DT Trevor Price in Denver, or LBs like Dexter Coakley in Orlando, Henri Crockett in Birmingham, or Mike Vrabel in Portland.
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