1997 USFL PREVIEW: WESTERN CONFERENCE

Can one man determine the fate of 12 different football franchises? This USFL offseason there seem to be a lot of folks who believe the answer is yes. The Houston Gamblers have dominated the Western Conference for a decade and the man at the center of that dominance has been QB Jim Kelly.

When the 3-time USFL MVP retired last September it sent ripples of change throughout the league, almost like the Emperor being killed in Last of the Jedi. For some, particularly Gambler Nation, it marked the end of an era, and left them wondering if their club could find a way to stay at the top of the league. For fans of the other 11 Western Conference clubs, it means there may very well be a void at the top and they all want their club to step up and become the new king of the hill.

We agree that without Jim Kelly at the helm, and with Houston not really going big to find a replacement, at least not yet, there is a good chance that the Gamblers will struggle this year. They have a lot of talent on their team, but we all know that QB is the key to success in the USFL, and while we think Chuck Hartlieb has been a solid backup, we are not sold that he is ready to take the mantle. So, who is ready to jump into the void? There are several Central Division clubs that seem to be on the rise, from the shut down defense of the St. Louis Knights to the run-first offenses of Michigan and New Orleans. You also have Denver in the Pacific, who seem to have found a QB of their own in Mark Brunell.

Our analysts have compiled their preseason Power Ranking, and just as we did with the Eastern Conference, we will go in their predicted order to explore all 12 USFL franchises and see what we see as the strengths and deficiencies of each club, including recent roster departures, arrivals, draftees, and the coaching stability of each club. Then, when we have finished our review of all 24 clubs our analysts we will leave it up to the Swami himself, Chris Berman, to give us his prediction for Summer Bowl 1997. So, let’s get started with our look at the Western Conference.

DENVER GOLD (#1 in West, #3 Overall)

Departures: FS C. Mincy (FA), DT M. D. Perry (FA)

Arrivals: TE Jimmie Johnson (NFL), FS Jamel Williams (ROOK), G Chris Dishman (ROOK), HB Terry Battle (ROOK)

Coaching Situation: Coach Phillips is pretty well-ensconced in Denver and his club winning the Pacific last year certainly did not weaken that standing. Problem is another quick playoff exit could be seen as a real problem. Denver is expected to win the relatively weak Pacific again, but has to be able to prove that it is on a par with the clubs from the much tougher Central Division.

Outlook: Our panel believes Denver will be the #1 seed in the West this year, but that does not necessarily mean the best team. The Central clubs will knock each other down while Denver should be able to cruise to a division title unless Portland or Seattle make serious improvements. But what happens come playoff time? Denver’s roster largely stood pat. They were able to replace Mincy’s departure with one of the best-looking rookie safeties in recent years, but the loss of Michael Dean Perry could be an issue. Denver is counting on a rotation of James Manley and John Jurkovic to keep the center of the line solid, but may have to rely on more help from a very talented LB corps that includes Marvcus Patton, Kurt Gouveia, Trev Alberts and John Holocek.

OUR BEST GUESS: Lots of division wins help Denver grab the top seed at 11-5.

ST. LOUIS KNIGHTS (#2 in West, #4 Overall)

Departures: TE G. Scales (FA), WR R. Ismail (FA), HB R. Brooks (NFL), LB B. Minter (Trade)

Arrivals: DT Brent Sowell (FA), SS Jason Snider (FA), WR Patrick Rowe (Trade), LB Darrin Smith (NFL), K Ryan Longwell (ROOK), WR Kevin Lockett (ROOK)

Coaching Situation: Coach Jim Johnson made all the right calls last year and helped St. Louis move from also-ran to a serious division contender, even wresting 1st place away from Houston for several weeks. He will now look to make the Knights, and their defense, a new force in the Central Division.

Outlook: The Knights took a big hit when Rocket Ismail bolted for new digs in Arizona, but by trading for Patrick Rowe and drafting Kevin Lockett they hope they have found enough receptions to offset the loss. A lot still rests on that defense, though. Todd Collins is serviceable, but is not the kind of QB who can carry a team. The run game is still a bit shaky, though we like the greater use of Ironhead Hayward that we saw last year. But in the end, if the Knights want to find themselves in 1st place in this tough division, they will be relying on defensive studs like safety Rodney Harrison, DT Jerry Ball, LBs Marcus Cotton and newly-acquired Darrin Smith, and get even more pass rush from DE play out of Tony Tolbert, Andy Harmon and Dameaion Jeffries.

OUR BEST GUESS: We like a stingy defense and a conservative offense in a division that no longer has a lot of study QB’s. 10-6 and 1st in the Central is our pick.

MICHIGAN PANTHERS (#3 in West, #5 Overall)

Departures: LB R. Shaw (FA), CB B. Mitchell (FA), WR Terry Mickens (NFL), LB Jesse Cox (NFL) K Brad Daluiso (FA)

Arrivals: FS Mike Prior (NFL), DE Kevin Cota (FA), WR Dedrick Ward (ROOK), T Ross Verba (ROOK), K Brett Conway (ROOK)

Coaching Situation: Coach Holtz got what he wanted in the signing of Doug Flutie, a steady hand at the till. Flutie’s playmaking ability match up well with the straight-ahead run game of the Panthers. Now Holtz can focus on improving the Panther defense and hoping that the club has hit on a gem or two in the draft.

Outlook: Michigan is a tough team to figure out. We could see them winning 10 games or only 6, but likely they fall right in the middle. If they can keep feeding Tyrone Wheatley the ball, and if the receiving group of Weegie Thompson, Muhsin Muhammad and rookie Dedrick Ward can continue to develop, the Panthers could be a very tough out.

OUR BEST GUESS: We are just not sure what to make of the Panthers, but our consensus leans a bit towards favorable. 9-7, 2nd in Central

NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS (#4 in West, #6 Overall)

Departures: T D. Reisenberg (FA), DE C. Bradtske (FA), CB G. Atkins (FA), S. Mark Kelso (RET)

Arrivals: WR Horace Copleland (FA), T Troy Auzene (FA), SS Sammy Knight (ROOK), CB Chris Canty (ROOK), WR Isaac Byrd (ROOK)

Coaching Situation: Coach Ditka was on the edge last year and falling out of playoff contention late did not do him any favors. By our estimate he needs at least 9 wins and a playoff appearance to keep him in place in the Crescent City.

Outlook: The Breakers and Panthers feel very much like the same team to us. A decent but not devastating defense, a solid run game that relies heavily on one big back, a QB who can make some plays but can also be really off at times. New Orleans is good, but not great, in most areas, and we are just not all that confident in Coach Ditka’s offensive schemes.

OUR BEST GUESS: We are going to put the Breakers right where the Panthers are, 9-7, 3rd in Central on a tiebreaker.

HOUSTON GAMBLERS (#5 in West, #10 Overall)

Departures: QB Jim Kelly (RET), WR R. Proehl (FA), SS L. Butler (FA), WR J. Pruitt (RET)

Arrivals: DE Danny Stubbs (NFL), C Matt Yount (FA), SS Chris Carter (ROOK), T Adam Meadows (ROOK), QB Chuck Clements (ROOK)

Coaching Situation: Coach Willsey is an institution in Houston, with 3 league titles, including last year. He is not going anywhere unless he wants to. That said, this year could be his toughest job to date.

Outlook: Yes, a lot of pieces are still in place from last year, but the loss not only of Jim Kelly but of safety LeRoy Butler and two contributors at the wideout position will have a big impact on the Gamblers. Expect Houston to rely on Thurman Thomas more than ever as they turn the QB reins over to Chuck Hartlieb. But we saw Thomas lose a step last year, with his YPC dropping below 4.0 for the first time and his total yards drop to 851, the first season under 1,000 yards in his career. If his decline is legit, the Houston offense could be in real trouble.

OUR BEST GUESS: We see Houston as a club in transition. They may need to blow things up and start over because we just don’t see enough here to assume a player here or there can return them to glory. 8-8 may be the best they can do, and that would put them 4th in the division.

PORTLAND THUNDER (#6 in West, #12 Overall)

Departures: G J. Andolsek (FA), FB M. Cade (NFL), LB B. R. Smith (RET), CB H. Welch (RET), HB A. Lee (RET)

Arrivals: C Jeff Uhlenake (NFL), CB James Bullock (FA), WR T. Dixon (NFL), FB Arnulfo Cowley (ROOK), LB Mike Vrabel (ROOK), WR Matthew Hatchette (ROOK), HB June Henley (ROOK)

Coaching Situation: Coach Tobin needs to show some growth with this club. They have hovered around .500 the last 2 years and fans are growing restless. 10 wins or more would sure help him prove his plan to rely on defense and HB Robert Drummond is working.

Outlook: The Thunder took a lot of hits in free agency and retirements. They got a good one in signing NFL center Jeff Uhlenake, and we like the look of rookie wideout Matthew Hatchette. Another rookie, Mike Vrabel from Ohio State, is likely to also get a starting gig right out of the gate at MLB. But is this enough to catch the Denver Gold. We are not so sure.

OUR BEST GUESS: 8-8, 2nd in the Pacific.

TEXAS OUTLAWS (#7 in West, #13 Overall)

Departures: T T. Auzene (FA), SS K. Porter (FA), QB M. Shula (FA), LB A. Moyer (NFL)

Arrivals: SS Mike Minter (ROOK), FB Robert Booker (ROOK), T Ryan Tucker (ROOK), QB Tony Graziani (ROOK)

Coaching Situation: Coach Pardee is going to need more than past success in Houston to get him through this season. So far the transition to a face-paced spread-style offense has just not worked for the Outlaws, putting too much pressure on their D and with too few big games from Kelly Stouffer. OC Mouse Davis is out, and the new offensive philosophy should include more touches for Reggie Cobb and hopefully better protection for Stouffer. Pardee needs results and fast.

Outlook: The only big signing this offseason for Texas was resigning their own DE, John Bosa. They needed that but they also needed to bring Troy Auzene back and that did not happen. So, it may be rookie Ryan Tucker trying to protect QB Kelly Stouffer. Texas still does not have the personnel to really play the kind of ball Pardee would like. Their defense is not fast enough, and their offense lacks real gamebreakers. That is not a good omen for the coach or the fans in San Antonio to be sure.

OUR BEST GUESS: Texas finds a way to stay in the mix, but once again fades down the stretch, 7-9, 5th in Central.

CHICAGO MACHINE (#8 in West, #16 Overall)

Departures: WR H. Copeland (FA), QB S. Zolak (FA), DT K. Fagan (FA), CB D. Burroughs (NFL), HB J. Johnson (RET), LB G. Biekert (FA)

Arrivals: WR Ricky Proehl (FA), DE Chad Bradtske (FA), HB Duce Staley (ROOK), CB Sam Madison (ROOK)

Coaching Situation: Coach Schottenheimer has rolled the dice with QB Dan McGwire, letting Zolak go in free agency. After finishing last in the division in 1996, he cannot afford another basement finish, but this is a tough division and we just don’t see a lot of muscle in this Machine lineup.

Outlook: The Machine took some big hits in free agency, and while we like Ricky Proehl on special teams and as a quality slot receiver, it is not enough. The drafting of Duce Staley, while a good player, makes little sense for a team that already has a quality back in Rickey Watters. What they need were playmakers on the outside and more speed on defense, and we don’t see that in this year’s roster.

OUR BEST GUESS: 5-11, 6th in the Central and Marty moves on.

SEATTLE DRAGONS (#9 in West, #18 Overall)

Departures: FB Z. Crockett (FA), QB D. Klingler (FA), CB Adrian Robinson (FA)

Arrivals: DT Gilbert Brown (NFL), DT Isaac Williams (FA), G Craig Novitsky (FA), FB Theron Wilson (ROOK), HB Corey Dillon (ROOK), CB Al Harris (ROOK), C Mike Flynn (ROOK)

Coaching Situation: This may be a make or break year for Coach Widenhoffer. Seattle lost almost nothing from a team that looked better in Week 18 than Week 1 last year, and they had one of the better-rated drafts, getting a stud halfback and local hero in Corey Dillon but also adding a potential starter on defense in CB Al Harris. The most intriguing move was on the D-line where they signed not only veteran Isaac Williams but stole away a true mountain of a man in former Packer Gilbert Brown.

Outlook: We like Seattle as a possible playoff darkhorse. Dillon should be an immediate upgrade for the run game, Timm Rosenbach should be back at QB, and if he falters we already know that 2nd year QB Jon Kitna can make plays with his arm or his feet. The WR corps is basically Eric Metcalf and the 7 dwarves, but there is talent on defense and this just feels like a team ready to rise.

OUR BEST GUESS: Another team we could not agree on, and ended up saying 7-9 was a good year, but there are folks in our bullpen who see up to 10 wins for this club and even a possible leapfrog over the rest of the division. That will have to be seen to b believed. 7-9 and 3rd in the Pacific is where we place them.

OAKLAND INVADERS (#10 in West, #20 Overall)

Departures: T H. Swayne (FA0, LB R. Rivera (NFL), LB R. Kirk (RET), LB K. Harvey (RET), DT . R. Rodgers (RET), DB J. Hasty (Trade)

Arrivals: LB Chris Spielman (FA), LB Ricky Shaw (FA), WR Terry Mickens (FA), WR K. Simien (Trade), HB Troy Davis (ROOK), G Frank Middleton (ROOK)

Coaching Situation: Coach Mora is finding his return to the USFL to be a rough ride. After a mediocre 7-9 year the club bottomed out (he hopes) at 5-11 last season. But, just as he started talking about retooling he lost 3 of his 4 starting linebackers with Harvey and Kirk retiring and Rivera headed to the NFL. That is tough to overcome.

Outlook: The Invaders were active this offseason, they had to be. Signing both Chris Spielman and Ricky Shaw to rebuild the linebacking corps was an absolute necessity. They also added some dynamism to the run game with the diminutive sparkplug Troy Davis of Iowa State. Is it enough? We are not convinced. Bobby Hebert seems to be winding down his career, and Henry Ellard cannot do it all himself. The defense will be a work in progress, and we are not sure that work will develop fast enough to keep Coach Mora from feeling the heat.

OUR BEST GUESS: Things look very shaky by the Bay this year. 6-10, 4th in the Pacific.

LA EXPRESS (#11 in West, #21 Overall)

Departures: HB Marcus Allen (RET), T Alan Kline (FA), DT L. Shackerford (FA), SS J. Snider (FA), WR P. Rowe (Trade)

Arrivals: G Erik Andolsek (FA), FS T. Hauck (FA), LB Barry Minter (Trade), HB Antowain Smith (ROOK), SS Torrian Gray (ROOK)

Coaching Situation: Coach Neuheisel did well in his first year with an expansion club, but saw little growth with the club in his 2nd year. That makes this year pivotal. The Express need to make a push for .500 to keep Neuheisel feeling secure. But the former QB, turned HC, still does not seemed settled on a QB. Brent Pease had success early while Jeff Garcia struggled, but if you have 2 QB’s, as the saying goes, maybe you don’t really even have 1.

Outlook: Marcus Allen struggled to gain yards behind the LA line. Will Antowain Smith, with a more bruising, straight-ahead style fare better? Adding Eric Andolsek at guard should help, but what would really help is if the receivers would finally start to play up to potential. Mike Pritchard has been the lone star in the sky for LA, but they need either Rob Carpenter or Darnay Scott to step up as well.

OUR BEST GUESS: We really like Neuheisel, but we don’t see LA having the horses to get this club into contention, and without that, this third year could easily be a last year for the young head coach. 5-11 and 5th in the division is our pick.

ARIZONA WRANGLERS (#12 in West, #22 Overall)

Departures: HC Ted Tollner (Released), QB Robbie Bosco (Trade), SS D. Fulcher (NFL), K M. Luckhurst (FA), TE M. Boyer (RET)

Arrivals: C David Houle (FA), WR Rocket Ismail (FA), T Robert Curry (FA), TE Pete Metzelaars (NFL), QB Jake Plummer (ROOK), DT Renaldo Wynn (ROOK), WR Nate Jacquet (ROOK), SS Omar Stoutmire (ROOK)

Coaching Situation: Coach Shell comes in with a mission to clean house and a clean slate is what he wants. He started immediately working with the GM to fix the biggest issue, the offense. There is still a lot of defensive talent on this club, and now, with a hotshot rookie QB, and a rebuilt O-line, the Wranglers are hoping to make believers out of disgruntled fans in the Valley of the Sun.

Outlook: We love the moves that Shell and the Wranglers have made. They got their man in Jake Plummer, then helped him out by signing two linemen and snagging a reliable outlet in TE Pete Metzelaars from the NFL. With two savvy vets at TE (including Terry Orr), the Wranglers can run a lot of 2-TE formations, protect Plummer, run the ball, and count on that defense to win close games. The only big issue we see with the plan is that we are just not sold on the combo of Tim Lester and Karim Abdul-Jabbar as a consistent force in the run game. That will hold the Wranglers back and force Plummer to carry the load, a lot to ask of a rookie.

OUR BEST GUESS: Arizona is starting over, and that takes time. This year is really just a trial by fire for both Plummer and Coach Shell. It won’t show in the standings, but by season’s end there should be a lot of optimism in the locker room and in the stands. 4-12, 6th in West.

SEASON PREDICTION:

Those are our picks from the top of the power ratings to the bottom, now let’s hear what the Swami has to say.

Hello everyone, your trusted swami here. And for the first time in a long time I am not going to make my usual pick of Houston vs. Pittsburgh. Jim Kelly has left the building, and that changes everything. We have a new sheriff in town and he may be more Barney Fife than Wyatt Earp. So who do we like in a world where we don’t just expect Houston to be there? Tampa Bay looks solid and they have a QB who can carry a team when needed. Baltimore has a defense that will put the fear of God into you. It once again may be Mike Rozier’s last run at a title, something we feel like we have been saying for years. Out west you have a young gun in Denver, a Blitz-wannabe in St. Louis, and you have the veteran, the golden boy of 1985, Doug Flutie in Michigan. It’s a wide open race, and we are going to make some wild picks just to shake things up.

I am not going to go with the frontrunners in either conference. Too easy to look at Baltimore, Tampa Bay or Denver and predict a title. Nope, I am going fully out in left field. My pick this year is for the Orlando Renegades to put together a late-season run and to knock off Tampa Bay in a thrilling all-Florida Conference title. They will then go on and win their first USFL title by defeating a wild card team in the Summer Bowl, and that Wild Card will be… the Seattle Dragons. Yup, I told you I was going for the darkhorse and Seattle is the ultimate mudder. They will upend St. Louis in the dome thanks to a balanced offense and an underrated defense. Seattle and Orlando, those are my picks, and since I am very rarely right about these selections, there is no pressure for me to be right this time around either.