Football seasons are funny things. You start the year hot and everyone thinks you are unbeatable. You start slow and it is a lost season. But then teams gel, others crumble, players get hurt, others rise to the occasion, and the team you were so sure about week 5 looks like an also ran in week 15, and that club that looked hapless early on now cannot be stopped. In some cases it is too little too late, and the season ends with optimism for the future, and for others you back your way into the postseason but no one has much confidence in you. As we reach Week 14, there is a lot of both happening. Denver seems like a shadow of the club that started the year 5-1. New Orleans has won 4 in a row and looks primed to jump into an unexpected playoff spot. Pittsburgh had lost 5 in a row, but back to back wins have them right in the thick of it, while Washington sandwiched a needed win over Philadelphia with back to back bad looking outings. A season is a funny thing, long, twisted, and largely inconsistent, and this year is no different in the USFL.
Philadelphia came into this week’s home game against Houston needing a win to get back on track. They had just lost a heartbreaker to the Federals but at 9-4 could still overtake their division rivals and reclaim the top spot in the Atlantic. Houston, entering the game at 5-8, had no illusions of postseason play in the middle of what many considered to be a rebuilding season, but they had been playing well with Chuck Hartlieb back under center. Sometimes the most dangerous opponent is the one who has nothing to lose, a lesson Philly learne the hard way this week.
Philadelphia expected a balanced attack from the Gamblers, and dedicated a lot of energy to limiting the impact of HB Thurman Thomas, one of the last vestiges of the Gambler squads that had won 3 titles. They did, allowing Thomas only 45 yards on 18 carries, but somewhere along the lines they failed to defend the pass. Chuck Hartlieb threw for 323, and his backup, who came in for a stint in the third quarter when Hartlieb was shaken up, was able to complete 6 of 10 for 135 himself, a whopping total of 468 yards to a team not known for aerial explosions.
And yet the Stars’ scoring defense had held up pretty well. At the half they were down 13-10, but scored on a pick-6 to open the third and held onto a 17-16 lead when the quarter ended. But, the Stars simply could not generate consistent offense, converting on only 4 of 11 third downs, and not getting much run game from their lead back either, as Charlie Garner could only garner 58 yards on the day.
So, as both defenses tired in the final quarter, it was not surprising that Houston would come back and wipe out the 1-point stars lead. They did so with Hartlieb back under center, hitting TE Ken Dilger for the game winner early in the quarter and then holding on as the Stars attempted but failed to mount a comeback. Houston would hold onto the slim 22-17 lead and upend the Stars in their own house. At 6-8 Houston has only faint hopes of reaching .500 or sneaking into a Wild Card slot, while Philadelphia cannot feel confident going into the final two weeks of the season and hoping to earn a bye.
MGN 21 WSH 2
Philadelphia would catch a break as the Washington Federals simply did not show up at home against the Panthers. Kordell Stewart limped off the field early on and Eric Kramer was not ready to take over, completing only 14 of 35 passes all game. On the other side of the field, Doug Flutie completed 76% of his throws (26 of 34) and tossed TDs to both HB Tyrone Wheatley and TE Butch Rolle to knock off a disappointing Feds team.
CHI 15 PIT 20
Pittsburgh pulled itself back into relevancy with a strong defensive game against a good Chicago club. Despite going 0 for 9 on third down, the Maulers got just enough to edge the Machine at home. A strong 72 yards from Mike Rozier, and a rushing TD from Dorsey Levins were enough to keep Alex Van Pelt’s 414 yards passing from leading to a Machine victory.
TEX 11 OHI 14
Ohio continued its strong run of play lately, taking advantage of a bad day from Texas backup Tony Sacca to snag their 6th win of the season and their third in a row. Eddie George contributed 80 yards on the ground, and Joey Galloway went over 100 yards again as the Glory pleased the home crowd with a hard fought win.
NOR 27 BAL 24
Baltimore had hoped that home cooking would get them to 7-7 and right in the middle of the Wild Card hunt, but the Breakers have been hot lately, and they were able to navigate the rough waters of Baltimore’s D to edge past the Blitz thanks to a 13-0 scoring run to close out the game. Terrell Davis scored a late TD and Lin Elliott’s field goal with 1:00 on the clock gave the Breakers the win.
STL 29 NJ 7
For a while the Generals looked like they would eke their way into the postseason, but their third straight loss has dropped them into dangerous territory. St. Louis dominated with a stifling defense that held New Jersey to only 235 total yards and forced a pick-6 that turned a manageable 16-7 deficit into an unreachable 23-7 gap.
ARZ 33 BIR 49
Jake Plummer looked solid as the Wranglers put a scare into the Stallions before Birmingham pulled away at the end. Brett Favre was able to connect with Ernest Givens on a pair of long scoring tosses, including a 79-yarder as the Stallions played deep ball against a weakened Wrangler secondary.
POR 34 ATL 21
Portland never trailed as they took a 10-0 first quarter lead and just kept Atlanta out of range all game long. Robert Drummond had a huge day, rushing for 169 against the Fire, while Jack Trudeau tossed 2 TDs for the Western Conference leaders.
DEN 17 JAX 27
Denver continued to struggle, falling to 7-7 with their loss in Jacksonville. Kenny Bynum and Natrone Means outrushed Rashaan Salaam, and two Terrell Owens TD catches helped the Bulls build a 27-10 lead that held through a late Denver rally to remain tied atop the Southern Division with Birmingham.
OAK 29 TBY 3
Tampa continued to stumble as they looked completely out of synch against the Invaders, whose defense is not exactly fear-inducing. Troy Davis rushed for 3 scores and Bobby Hebert connected on 72% of his passes against a Bandit defense that was not able to rise to the occasion. The offense was not much better, with Troy Aikman completing only 46% of his passes and throwing 2 picks.
LA 16 ORL 41
The Renegades made short work of the Express and moved one step closer to a postseason position as Scott Mitchell threw for 349 yards and 3 scores. Dante Whittaker caught 2 TDs and Keenan McCardell looked strong with 7 receptions for 92 yards for Orlando.
SEA 20 MEM 15
Another bad outing from the Showboats as they sleepwalked through the game and allowed a 4th quarter Kitna to Metcalf TD take them down. Neither team showed much of a run game, but Kitna’s 24 of 29 day was enough to help Seattle earn the road win.
TRIPLE THREAT
If you want to understand how Birmingham has made such a dramatic improvement in a year, from a truly disappointing 6-10 season in 1996 to 10-4 and a legitimate shot at the #1 seed in the East, all you have to do is look at their top 3 receivers. In ’96 injuries kept Ernest Givens out of the lineup for a good chunk of the year, and Lawrence Dawsey was in and out of the lineup with a series of minor dings. This year the two have both stayed healthy and paired with TE Shannon Sharpe they are just destroying defenses. All three are over 1,000 yards already, with Evans near the top of the league with his 1,357, Dawsey and Sharpe are at 1,124 and 1,125. The three have combined for a stupefying 38 TDs, including a league leading 17 from Sharpe, and their per catch averages are insane, 23 YPC for Givens, 20.8 for Dawsey, and 18.8 for Sharpe, a ridiculous number for a tight end. Yes, Brett Favre is playing his best ball right now and is the top rated QB by a mile, but you have to say that these three likely All-USFL receivers are a huge reason why.
CHALLENGING A LEGEND
Robert Drummond is in range, a long range, but in range, to challenge Herschel Walker’s 1983 rushing record of 1,767 yards. With two games to play Drummond would need 267 yards combined to top Walker, an average of 133.5, which is a lot to ask, but Drummond had topped 130 twice already this year, and with Portland having already wrapped up the division title, there may be a focus on feeding him the ball to see if he can do it. Walker is an absolute legend in the USFL, having rushed for over 1,500 yards five tims in his 13 year career. Drummond is now getting his due after topping 1,000 yards for 6 straight years, including a 1,600 yard season in 1995. He has led the league in rushing the past 2 seasons and seems on pace to do so again, with a very healthy 255 yard lead over the closest contender, Reggie Cobb. Expect Drummond to be the Offensive Player of the Year this season and expect the Thunder to keep feeding him the ball as he challenges Walker’s legendary 1983 season.
SACK MAN
Speaking of legendary performances, we have got to talk about what Phil Hansen is doing. After setting a league record for sacks in his rookie year, Hanson broke that record last year with 25 sacks, and this year he already has 22 with 2 games left and could challenge his own record. The product of North Dakota State has been a one-man wrecking crew for New Jersey since coming into the league in 1991. In 7 seasons he has amassed 134 sacks, an average of 19 a year. He already has the 6th highest total in league history, and while he still trails Reggie White by 88 sacks, he holds the top two season records and is almost certain to hold the top 3 with this year’s total. If he remains healthy long enough, he could quite easily become the all time sack leader, now, if his team could just build something around him.
Finally, we should probably give some love to the leader of the Texas Outlaws’ #1 ranked scoring defense, LB Brian Bosworth. The Boz is not only 2nd in the league in tackles with 106 (5 behind Breaker Lamar Lathon) but is first among all linebackers with 3 picks and has 6 sacks on the season as well. His 4 forced fumbles tie him with Kevin Greene behind only Mike Crawford’s 5, and his 12 pass defenses are highest among linebackers. He has basically done it all this season for a defense that has skyrocketed up the rankings this year and helped the Outlaws lay a claim to the Central Division despite losing their starting QB weeks ago. After a season-ending injury in 1995 cost him 10 games, Boz looked good, but not outstanding in 1996, but it is clear he is all the way back this year.
Two weeks left to go and things are beginning to get sorted out. We now have 6 of 10 playoff teams decided, with Birmingham and Jackconville joining Washington in the East and Portland, Texas and Michigan all clinched in the West. With wins this week Chicago and Philadelphia can join them, leaving only the 5th spot in each conference to be decided.
That 5th slot is likely to be messy. In the East, Orlando has a one game lead on Pittsburgh, with both clubs having won their last 2 games. Right now both clubs are 5-5 in the conference, but a Renegade win over the Maulers in Week 4 (a 42-35 shootout) would give the edge to Orlando. Win this week and they lock it up. In the West, Denver and New Orleans are both 7-7, with Denver holding the tie-breaker thanks to a 31-20 Gold win in the Big Easy earlier in the year. But, the Gold have lost 3 in a row, while the Breakers have won 4 straight, meaning the two seem to be headed in opposite directions. New Orleans finishes up with Houston and Chicago, two tough opponents, while Denver has what looks like an easier path with 4-10 Seattle and 5-9 Oakland on the docket.
More big hurts around the league this week as Memphis loses their QB, Atlanta loses a key defensive piece, and Texas loses their best o-lineman. Heath Shuler hobbled off the field this week against Seattle, and on Monday the MRI revealed what Coach Cameron feared, an ACL tear that could take several months to repair. In Atlanta, LB Carlos Emmons is done for the remainder of the season after a rupture of the Achilles tendon, an injury which could impact as far off as training camp. And in Texas, already playing without QB Kelly Stouffer, the offense took another big hit as their top guard, Larry Allen is out at least 8 weeks with a torn quad muscle on his left leg. Not good news for Tony Sacca or for the run game and Reggie Cobb, with the playoffs right around the corner.
Washington avoided a worst case scenario when a potential neck injury to QB Kordell Stewart was evaluated and determined to be simply a nerve pinch paired with a light concussion. Stewart is scheduled to start this week after missing most of the Federals’ rough loss this past week. Herman Moore also went out of the Feds’ game, but is expected to be back in action this week. Others expected to be back in action this week include Tampa TE Ben Coates, St. Louis safety Rodney Harrison, Arizona LB Winfred Tubbs, and Baltimore HB Barry Foster, who took a nasty helmet-to-helmet hit last week.
OK, we are not going to talk about the league-union negotiations this week because there is not much to tell and the seeming lack of urgency on this is just depressing. Instead, we want to take a look at the 1998 Draft ratings. Yes, we have already looked at the QB position and the potential landing spots for top blue chip QB’s Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf, so we are not going to focus there. Instead let’s look at the top 6 clubs (by which we mean the likely bottom 6 USFL squads) going into this year’s draft and what they might be targeting. Of course, with the labor situation being what it is, and the chance that every team in the league will have to scramble to resign players, or sign replacements, it is hard to say just what each team’s needs really are, but, looking at the rosters right now, it is obvious that each of these struggling squads has some obvious needs even before the seemingly-unavoidable free agency fiasco on the horizon. Looking at current rosters, here is what we see.
#1 Pick--Arizona Wranglers: With Jake Plummer seeming to gain confidence and quality over the course of his rookie season, Arizona could be in a position most would envy, having the #1 pick in a year where QB is almost guaranteed to be the top pick, but not needing a QB. We absolutely expect the Wranglers to trade down, picking up a lot of draft capital in the process. We still think they will stay in the Top 10, and with their first pick they can go one of two directions, HB or Defense. Both need help. If they go HB, which seems a strong likelihood, then we expect the pick is between Penn State’s Curtis Enis and Floriday’s Fred Taylor. Both are strong power runners with the kind of burst that can turn a 4-yard run into a 20 yarder. If it’s defense, then LB or DB is key, and the best prospect for Coach Shell is likely Auburn’s Takeo Spikes, a rangy, fast LB who also can hit.
#2 Pick—LA Express: The Express could go QB quite easily, but they also have big issues on defense. If they get a good enough package, they could opt to trade down as well. So let’s pencil in either one of the 2 big QB’s here or look at the best defensive lineman, Florida State’s Andre Wadsworth. LA needs to generate pass rush, and that is where Wadsworth could make a huge difference.
#3 Pick—Seattle Dragons: Tied with Atlanta, but having lost to them earlier this year, Seattle would get the #3 pick if the season ended today. Seattle is in a weird place here too. They could go for the home run and move up into the top 2 to get local star Ryan Leaf, but they already have 3 local QB’s in Rosenbach, Kitna, and Huard. That said, Ryan Leaf seems a much better option than any of those three. We are going to assume that Seattle makes the move to jump ahead of LA and get the #1 pick, naming Ryan Leaf the new starter and possibly trading away Rosenbach or Kitna as part of the deal.
#4 Pick—Atlanta Fire: Another club that could be highly motivated to trade into the Top 2. If Seattle goes #1 with Leaf, the temptation to trade up to #2 and sign Tennessee legend Peyton Manning may be too good to pass up. Of course, as with all USFL draft strategies, the Fire have to be aware that the NFL is not just going to roll over and let the USFL sign both of the top QB prospects we have seen in years. It is risky to give up a lot even to move up 2 places if Manning heads to the NFL instead.
#5 Pick—Memphis Showboats: The Showboats are likely standing pat at QB, so don’t expect them to try to trade up. Heath Shuler is not the issue in Memphis, a defense that is giving up 385 yards and 25 points a game is. Reggie White cannot play forever, and an aging LB corps desperately needs some speed and ferocity. If Takeo Spikes is available, he seems a great option, but if not, then look for Memphis to go with either CB Charles Woodson or Ga Tech LB Keith Brooking, both being strong upgrades for a D that needs a lot of help.
#6 Pick—Oakland Invaders: If Bobby Hebert opts to retire, which we are hearing rumors of, then Oakland would feel obligated to make a move up to the top 2 and hope to sign either Manning or Leaf. But, if he stays, and if Oakland has a new Head Coach (again highly anticipated) it is likely that coach is going to want to add speed at WR and pass rush on defense, two aspects sorely lacking by the bay this season. If it is speed they want, the best option is likely Marshall wideout Randy Moss, the tall, lankey receiver is a nightmare to cover. If they opt to go for passrush, it could be Wadsworth, UNC’s Greg Ellis, or his teammate for the Tar Heels Vonnie Holiday.
As you would expect, Week 15 has some dynamic divisional games, each with great playoff potential. In the Pacific, Denver’s fading season may hinge on them getting a home win against Seattle this week. Portland is in LA and could lock up the #1 seed with a win. Oakland is in Arizona as well, in one of the week’s few non-playoff implicated games.
In the Central Division, Texas is at Michigan and the Panthers are hoping they can snag the Outlaws and reclaim first place. Chicago hosts rival St. Louis in what could be a really good matchup of tough defenses. Houston hosts New Orleans who hope to win out and reach the postseason.
A huge game in the South as Jacksonville and Birmingham clash, both at 10-4 and sharing 1st place in the division. This one likely decides the title. Orlando can clinch a playoff spot this week with a home win over Memphis and a bit of help. Atlanta is in Tampa Bay, which needs a lot of help to even sniff the playoffs.
Finally, in the Atlantic, we have big games for both Washington and Philadelphia. The Feds are in New Jersey to face the Generals while Philly is in Baltimore with hopes of catching Washington this weekend. Pittsburgh has a tough game in Columbus if they are going to get over .500.