After a lot of prognostication, simulation, and a near-constant rationalization from pundits across the county on how Washington could slow down the Tampa Bay offense or how Arizona could out-scheme the St. Louis defense, the players hit the field, and we got exactly what most people figured we would get, two dominant wins from the two best teams in the league this season. Tampa Bay won with a near-unstoppable offense while St. Louis dominated with defense, setting up one of the most highly anticipated Summer Bowl clashes in recent memory, an epic battle of defensive fortitude and offensie explosiveness. But, first things first, let’s see how we got here.
Pretty much everyone agreed going into this game that if the final score was in the 20’s it was a sign that Washington had found some solutions for the Tampa Bay offense, but that if it creeped into the 30’s or higher it looked rough for the Federals. In other words, we predicted one path and once the game went that way the outcome seemed assured.
Tampa Bay put up a crushing 538 yards of offense against the vaunted Federals defense, nearly all of it through the air as Troy Aikman threw for 531 yards and 6 scores, with Robert Brooks (127), Ben Coates (105) and Randy Moss (184) all crossing the 100 yard mark. Moss would finish the game with a stunning 30.7 yard per catch average, including 3 scores of 37 yards, 48 yards, and 23 yards. Chris Doering would also get in on the action, catching 2 touchdown passes with his only 2 receptions. With Aikman only sacked 2 times, he was able to complete nearly 70% of his passes, and quite simply Washington could not compete against that.
The Federals tried to milk the clock and slow the game, but an early injury to HB Barry Word largely made that impossible. Terrell Fletcher tried to fill in, and did gain 108 yards on 12 carries, but his is an outside run game, not adept at grinding out yardage. That put the pressure on Kordell Stewart, who was forced to throw 48 passes, well above his average and well outside the comfort zone of the Federals’ playing style. He would toss 3 touchdowns with no picks, but the Federals offense simply could not keep pace with Tampa Bay’s relentless attack. It was 27-21 Tampa Bay at the half, but after 3 quarters the lead was up to 10, and then Tampa scored on 2 straight drives to build up a 48-24 lead and that is all she wrote.
The Bandits will head into Columbus for Summer Bowl 1998 having scored 82 points in their 2 playoff games, and with Troy Aikman having thrown for nearly 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in that short span. Randy Moss has over 300 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns, as his 2 week hiatus seems to have provided exactly the rest needed for him to come alive in the playoffs.
The Bandits will face a defense which has given up only 24 points in its two playoff games. In that same span the St. Louis Knights have held both Texas and Arizona under 300 yards of total offense, with the Wranglers failing to crack 200 in this week’s loss. The run defense is just lights out, allowing Texas 31 yards rushing and Arizona only a marginally less pathetic 37 yards. Of course it is the pass defense that will be tested against the Bandits.
Against Arizona, St. Louis used a strong 2nd quarter to put some distance between them and the Wranglers. Two early drives in the 1st led to Knights field goals, but a special teams flub led to a Rocket Ismael 105-yard kickoff return, a score that shockingly had Arizona in front despite nearly no offense in the quarter.
St. Louis kept plugging and in the 2nd quarter they got back to back touchdowns from Darrell Thompson and Ahman Green to take a 20-7 lead. Arizona would get a late field goal on their only real drive of the first half, but St. Louis had been dominant on defense, and that would be the last of the scoring for the Wranglers. In the second half, Arizona would gain a total of 58 yards, and would fail on all 6 third down attempts, finishing the day a miserable 2 of 11. St. Louis did not muster much in offense, though the combination of Thompson and Green would account for 123 yards rushing. It was a strategy that allowed St. Louis to dominate time of possession 36:36 to 23:24, and to keep the game well in hand against a Wranglers offense that did not make mistakes (no turnovers) but also simply could not make plays when needed.
So, we have a top flight defense now preparing for its biggest challenge of the year, a record-setting offense that is firing on all cylinders. Should be quite a game of wits as George Seifert’s offense matches up against Jim Johnson’s defense.
COACHING HIRES
We started the offseason with 5 coaching vacancies (Chicago, Jacksonville, Los Angeles, New Jersey, and Ohio), but this week that number dropped to 3 as two clubs quickly snapped up coaches before the market got too hot.
New Jersey, following the retirement of veteran NFL coach Chuck Knox, wanted to stay in the same vein, stressing defense and a solid run game, so they turned to another veteran coach who has been able to produce just that, recent Chicago firee, Marty Schottenheimer. The former coach of both Baltimore and Chicago was expected to be a hot commodity despite his ignominious departure after an abysmal 3-13 season in Chicago. New Jersey has the pieces in place to make Marty happy right away, a strong run game behind rookie Curtis Enis, and a pretty solid defense, though some work is needed in the offseason. Expect a look very similar to what we saw in Chicago, with little asked of the QB, and a lot of weight put on fundamentals and mental toughness.
The other hiring this week was in Los Angeles, where the Express turned to a former USFL coach who has been kicking around both the USFL and NFL since departing the Jacksonville Bulls in 1994. Hall had a pretty good run with Jacksonville, leading the Bulls to three winning seasons and 2 playoff appearances in his 6-year tenure (89-94), but has been largely consulting and serving as a TV analyst the past 4 seasons. Known as an offensive innovator, Hall is expected to work closely with the GM office in LA to reshape the roster this year after a truly horrific 2-win season, one highlighted by general incompetence on both sides of the ball. Expect Hall to seek a dynamic playmaker at QB, a trademark of his clubs, and to put the defense in the hands of his DC as he focuses on producing points.
The signings leave Ohio, Jacksonville, and Chicago still in the market, and rumor has it that all three are willing to play the long game in hopes of snagging an up and coming younger coach either from a current USFL playoff team or an NFL coach late in the offseason.
FIRST QB TRADE IS NOT SHOCKING
Every offseason we expect some movement among USFL QB’s between free agency, NFL signings, the draft, and trades, and this season is no different as we have our first QB relocation. With Trent Green expected back in the fold after a season-ending injury, Baltimore has traded the backup they traded for this past season, former LA Express QB Jeff Garcia. Garcia never saw a snap in Baltimore as the reaonable success of Wally Richardson kept the newly acquired QB on the bench. Well, Garcia, who struggled with consistency and turnovers in LA, will get his shot at a starting gig as he was sent to Chicago, where he will compete with Alex Van Pelt and former Blitz starter Chris Miller.
This may be an indication that Chicago is out of the rookie QB market, or it could be a sign that Miller is planning to retire after a season in which he needed 2 months to get a start and then promptly got injured. Chicago is still without a head coach, but rumors are that the club is looking to revamp an offense that simply did not surprise anyone under Coach Schottenheimer. Whether Garcia is the answer or simply a bridge QB until a rookie has a shot is very much the question today in Chicago, while Baltimore gets something they want as well, swapping out the unused QB for a pretty decent corner in Chicago’s Latin Berry.
SEASON AWARDS
As part of the build up to Summer Bowl 1998 the USFL this week held a televised Award Ceremony to recognize the best of the 1998 season. No big surprises here, though a couple of competitions were likely very close contests. Congratulations to this year’s winners:
League MVP: A no brainer, Tampa Bay QB Troy Aikman was the landslide winner. Aikman set records for passing yards and passing touchdowns in a season highlighted by big play after big play. His award was largely a given, and one of three awards garnered by the Bandits in their charmed season. Aikman was the only player to receive first place votes in one of the easier decisions in recent years.
Offensive Player of the Year: With Aikman winning MVP, the race was on for the offensive POTY, and while some believe that this year either Aikman or Moss should have doubled up on awards, that is not how voting tends to go in the USFL. So, we ended up with a pretty heated race between QB Brett Favre and his late run with the Stallions and Michigan wideout Jeff Campbell. Surprisingly the voters favored Campell over Favre in a close race between players on 8-8 clubs. Campbell, the consumate posession receiver, set a club record with 152 receptions, and while his average was only 10.4 yards per catch, his reliability led to 1,577 yards and 15 touchdowns, third behind only Ben Coates and Portland’s Matt Hatchette.
Defensive Player of the Year: This one was also pretty easy. USFL voters love the sack masters, and with Orlando’s Chris Doleman tying Phil Hansen’s record of 25 sacks, while also forcing 4 fumbles, it was a pretty easy pick. Baltimore DT John Randall and Denver FS Jamel Williams came in a distant 2nd and 3rd as the year belonged to Doleman and his power rush.
Rookie of the Year: The second of Tampa Bay’s three awards goes to one of the most exciting rookies to come along in a long time, wideout Randy Moss. Moss finished the year with 68 receptions for 1,613 yards and 12 touchdowns. He was not the only votegetter however, as both Oakland QB Ryan Leaf and Washington CB Charles Woodson each garnered one first place vote (we suspect from media reps from the Bay Area and DC, but it is an anonymous vote, so who’s to say?)
Coach of the Year: Tampa Bay gets its third award with first year coach George Seifert recognized for his reinvigoration of the Bandit offense and the amazing success of the season. The Bandits improved from 8-8 and 4th place in the Southern Division in 1997 to a 13-3 record and a quick run to the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Along the way Seifert helped to engineer an offense that made the most of his talented roster, including the Rookie of the Year and MVP.
Summer Bowl 1998 should be a game largely unimpaired by pre-game injuries. St. louis has listed Rodney Harrison as questionable with a jammed finger, but no one really expects him to miss this one. For Tampa, there is the obvious injury to Mike Vanderjact, but in John Kasay they have a more-than-adequate replacement. They are also a bit thin on the line, with C Steve McKinney expected to play despite suffering a concussion this week. Tackle Robert Bahr is out, which reduces depth on the line, but is likely not a major factor for Tampa Bay. SS Chris Crooms is playing through a shoulder injury, but we also expect him to start. So, a game that should put two pretty healthy rosters on the line against each other.
As we look forward to the Summer Bowl this week, the key in our mind are the games within the game, the individual matchups that will determine how this game goes. Here are our top 5 battles needed to win the war.
1. Randy Moss vs. CB Troy Vincent & FS Rodney Harrison: We fully expect the Knights to double cover Moss all game long. They really don’t have a choice. Vincent is good, but is not exactly a shut-down corner, however in Harrrison the Knights have one of the best cover safeties in the game. We fully expect Moss to still find openings, but if St. Louis can avoid the 40+ yard chunk plays and deep ball TDs, they might be able to keep that score within a reasonable range.
2. TE Ben Coates vs. St. Louis underneath coverage. With Moss likely getting special attention, there should be room underneath for Coates to find space. SS Jason Snider will likely split time with LB’s Marcus Cotton and Kevin Hardy trying to limit Coates’s range and his impact on the game. If he breaks free, that may force St. Louis to move to more zone, and that certainly makes life more difficult for the entire St. Louis defense.
3. DE Vonnie Holliday vs. LT Andre Johnson: Johnson may get some help from guard Will Shields, one of the league’s best, but St. Louis is good at scheming to avoid that. Expect some blitzes, but the key is really whether Holliday or his linemate Dameaion Jeffries can put pressure on Aikman without requiring blitzers abandon coverage. If they can even rush Aikman a little, that will disrupt the long-ball game the Bandits enjoy so much success with.
4. Green & Thompson vs. the TB LB Corps: Kevin Mitchell, Keith McCants, Bobby Houston and Derrick Little are not the league’s best backers, and they tend to spend more time rushing the passer as blitzers than defending the run, but against St. Louis’s 2-headed backfield, they are going to have to make clean tackles and clean up holes left by the front line. If St. Louis can get success on the ground in early downs, it makes Todd Collins’s life that much easier.
5. Tampa Bay special teams vs. the return game of the Knights: The Knights don’t have a homerun hitter in the return game, but what they have is the ability to shorten the field by getting solid returns from Anthony Miller, Reggie Rusk, or Clarkston Hines. If St. Louis can start consistently outside of their 30-yard line, they can keep the field tilted against a Bandits team that is better at big plays than consistent drives. Tampa Bay, with a replacement kicker and a shaky coverage team, could be susceptible to a St. Louis field-position strategy, and if the Knights can avoid giving up the 40 yard bombs, it could force Tampa to play the slow, dink and dunk game that few teams have held them to.
So, what do we think will happen? Well, we saw what happened to Washington, another formidable defense. Tampa Bay outschemed them and got big play after big play. St. Louis’s defense is not the same mold as Washington, but we think they may face the same threat. We just see too much opportunity for Tampa Bay. Even if St. Louis is capable of removing Moss from the deep ball and quick strike, you still have Coates in the middle, Brooks on the opposite side, and the threat of Errict Rhett out of the backfield. With clear conditions predicted, and a relatively cool evening (for August in Ohio), the conditions favor offense, and so do we. Our pick is Tampa Bay 31, St. Louis 21.