1999 USFL SEASON PREVIEW

What an offseason!!! Highlighted by the huge trade New Orleans made to snag Ricky Williams, but equally by the disappointment felt in places like Houston, Chicago, and Orlando as top tier QB prospects Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, and Dante Culpepper rejected the USFL bids and signed on with the NFL. WIth retirements to longstanding starters at QB in both Pittsburgh and Portland, and with everyone trying to emulate Tampa Bay’s success with explosive pass-first offenses, there was a lot of roster shifting this offseason, and a lot of pressure to get it right, because for every Bandit success story, there is a club like Chicago or Jacksonville that crashed and burned.

Before we get to the team-by-team analysis and predictions for the 1999 season, let’s quickly recap some of the roster notes from the past few weeks as clubs finalized their squads for the upcoming campaign.

TRADES

No real blockbuster trades as camps opened up, which is pretty much par for the course, but we did have a bit of movement as teams tried to fill gaps at the end of free agency and after missing on a few draft picks who went on to sign with the NFL. The most notable trade saw Arizona add some edge pressure by trading for Houston rookie DE Chike Okeafor. They also received special teamer and backup WR Olanda Truitt, while sending wideout J.J. Stokes to Houston. The Gamblers are clearly looking to open things up as they now have a receiving corps that is both speedy and deep, with Antonio Freeman, Brett Perriman, Stokes, Derrick Mason and Hart Lee Dykes.

Chicago also has a late addition to their receiving corps, sending Alonzo Spellman to Ohio in return for wideout Floyd Turner. Turner could actually start in what many view as one of the weaker receiving rooms in the league. Meanwhile, Spellman could also be a week one starter for an Ohio defense that is still trying to plug a lot of holes.

NFL-USFL TRANSFER WINDOW

Several of the remaining USFL free agents this February took advantage of the NFL-USFL transfer window and will now have a long offseason as they next suit up in the fall league 8 months from now. Among notable departures we have Birmingham DT George Little, Texas FS (and record holder for INTs in a season) Elbert Shelley, Pittsburgh guard Steve Kenney, veteran LA linebacker Curtis Taliferro, backup Fire halfback Fred McAfee, and Seattle’s popular DT Tony Siragusa.

Perhaps the two biggest NFL hits in the late window were DE Al Noga, a mainstay in the Arizona D-line and perhaps their best pass rusher, and Jacksonville kicker Pete Stoyanovich, who leaves one struggling Florida club to head to another, the Miami Dolphins.

The flow of players coming to the USFL from the NFL was also somewhat muted this year, as the clear emphasis on draft day over signing veterans continues to impact USFL front offices. A few noteworthy players, along with some of the usual practice squad roster-fillers, were in the mix this year. Baltimore added some experience and grit to their LB corps with the signing of LB Mike Jones from the St. Louis Rams. Portland also tried to add some defensive depth by signing DT Kelvin Pritchett away from the Tennessee Copperheads. Texas, still looking for offensive help, picked up TE Frank Wainright, and St. Louis added return man and slot back Torrance Small from the Indianapolis Colts. The biggest signing, at least in name impact, was made by the Tampa Bay Bandits, who seem to be hoping to add some defensive skill to their offensive juggernaut. They signed veteran DE and edge rusher Clyde Simmons from Simmons, who just finished one season in Cincinnati after previous stints in Philadelphia, Arizona, and Tennessee, is certainly not at his prime form, but still can be effective, particularly if the Bandits limit his appearances to clear passing downs so as to maximize his impact.

USFL FREE AGENT SIGNINGS

Those last few pieces on each club’s roster also came through USFL free agency, as we had several late signings. Memphis added a solid contributor in their LB Corps by signing Jim Schwantz away from Seattle. Chicago also hoped to add some defense as they picked up DE Israel Rayborn just as camp opened. In Denver, Mark Brunell gets his backup as the Gold inked Jeff Lewis to a 2-year deal, while Birmingham found their replacement for the departed Cedric Tillman, signing Kez McCorvey to a 3-year deal to take over in the slot. The Stallions also beefed up their questionable defense with the signing of former Seattle LB Tommy Thigpen.

SEASON PREVIEW

For all the shifting, the roster churn, the new coach arrivals, and the optimism that the draft brings every year, all indications are that several of the clubs that dominated last year, led by Tampa Bay and St. Louis, may well be best positioned to once again lead the league. We are still waiting for any signs of life from the four 1995 expansion clubs, and we are hoping for surprises like the one we saw from Arizona in last year’s playoffs. They say the preseason is a time when every club is undefeated and every fanbase has hope for the future. Realistically that is just not the case. We are pretty sure that fans in LA, Chicago, Atlanta and Ohio are not purchasing flights out to LA for Summer Bowl 1999 at this point of the year (and won’t be later on either), while those in places like Tampa, Denver, Arizona, St Louis and Washington are guardedly optimistic.

It is almost time to kick things off for real, so what can we expect? Well, expect us to make predictions and expect us to get a few right and a lot wrong. That is the USFL. So here are our best guesses for 1999. Don’t hold us to them come August.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

TAMPA BAY BANDITS

1998 Record: 14-2, League Champions

PREDICTED RECORD: 13-3, 1st in South

Departures: CB Eric Allen (FA), C Tony Mayberry (FA), DT Chris Maumalanga (FA), G Will Shields (FA), K John Kasay (FA), WR Jeff Query (FA), DE Fred Stokes (NFL), QB Kerwin Bell (NFL), LB Derrick Little (RET)

New Arrivals: WR Curtis Marsh (FA), QB Mike Pawlowski (FA), T Matt Patchan (FA), DE Clyde Simmons (NFL)

Draft Class: DE Tony Bryant (FSU), G Zach Piller (UF), DE Antonio Cochran (UGa), WR Tai Streets (Mich), DT Daren Yancey (BYU), CB Jerry Azumah (UNH), P Hunter Smith (NDame)

OUTLOOK: The Bandits look like a team capable of repeating as champion, something that has yet to happen in the short history of the USFL. Their offense is one of the best we have ever seen in the pro game, capable of beating you in any number of ways, from the deep ball to the run game, to short passing and run after the catch. They have weapons at every position, making them a nightmare to defend. If the offseason improvements to the defense are even mildly successful the game plan will be obvious for Tampa Bay, get an early lead and then key on the pass to shut down the opponent and force turnovers. Honestly, anything less than a return to at least the Eastern Conference Championship will be a major disappointment in West Florida.

BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS

1998 Record: 8-8, 4th in South

PREDICTED RECORD: 11-5, 2nd in South

Departures: CB Jimmy Hitchcock (FA), G John Bruhin (FA), LB David Brandon (FA), WR Cedric Tillman (FA), TE Shannon Sharpe (NFL), DT George Little (NFL), G Paul O’Connor (RET)

New Arrivals: WR Kez McCorvey (FA), G James Richard (FA), LB Tommy Thigpen (FA)

Draft Class: DE Mike Rucker (Nebr), G Lennie Friedman (Duke), TE Billy Miller (USC), WR MarTay Jenkins (Neb-Omaha), HB Charlie Rogers (Ga Tech), FB Nick Luchey (Miami), S Marcus Washington (Colo)

OUTLOOK: Birmingham squeaked into the playoffs and was immediately shut down by Washington last season, but Brett Favre remains a wild card that should not be discounted. If the Stallions can avoid their usual slow start, this club can be as potent as the Bandits, and they saw what Tampa Bay did last year, so we expect the Stallions to try to borrow that playbook and simply outgun the opposition. The loss of Shannon Sharpe will be a huge one for the offense, so we may see the Stallions actually put some effort into the run game this year as a way to provide options for Favre. Their defense remains a huge question mark, which is why we cannot place them in the same category as the Bandits, but they very well could be the second-best team in the league and if they were to face Tampa Bay in the playoffs it may be a race to 100 points to get a winner.

WASHINGTON FEDERALS

1998 Record: 10-6, 3rd in Atlantic

PREDICTED RECORD: 11-5,

1st in Atlantic

Departures: C Chris Thome (FA), FS Mike Dumas (FA), LB Tracy Scroggins (FA), LB Willis Crockett (FA), FB Sam Gash (NFL), HB Terrell Fletcher (NFL), QB Eric Kramer (RET)

New Arrivals: HB Glyn Milburn (FA), QB Scott Zolak (FA), HB Dino Philyaw (FA), FB Tommy Vardell (NFL)

Draft Class: LB Barry Gardner (NWST), WR Travis McGriff (Florida), QB Brock Huard (Wash), G Floyd Wedderburn (Penn St), CB Andre Weathers (Mich), G Eric King (Richm), QB Scott Covington (Miami)

OUTLOOK: The polar opposite of the top two squads in the East, Washington lives and dies by defensive pressure and the ability to shut down the run. Their front 7 is elite, with Jerome Brown just wreaking havoc on the inside. If Kordell Stewart, Herman Moore and Barry Word can be a Top 12 offense, the Federals can stick with nearly all teams, but as we saw last year, they are going to have to figure out a way to slow down Tampa Bay if they want to return to the title game. Losing two contributors from the linebacking group as well as FS Mike Dumas is not going to help the defense, but the signing of rookie Barry Gardner and CB Andre Weathers from Michigan may help patch some holes. Even with the departures, we see them as the best, most complete team in the Atlantic Division.

BALTIMORE BLITZ

1998 Record: 10-6, 2nd in Atlantic

PROJECTED FINISH: 11-5, 2nd in Atlantic

Departures: CB Torin Dorn (FA), G Carl Bax (FA), LB Tracy Rogers (FA), G Brian Bollinger (NFL), K Luis Zendejas (RET), QB Jeff Garcia (Trade)

New Arrivals: LB Cedric Figaro (FA), LB Tracy Scroggins (FA), DE Mike Jones (NFL)

Draft Class: CB Chris McCalister (Ariz), HB Mike Cloud (BC), T Derek Smith (Va Tech), CB Tyrone Bell (N Alab), LB Keith Newman (UNC), K Martin Gramatica (K State)

OUTLOOK: Baltimore is our dark horse this year. They made some interesting offseason moves and seem to be following Washington’s lead as a team designed to shorten games, run the ball, and win with a stifling defense. Their offense is not as polished as the Federals, but they have some interesting pieces in place. They struggled when Trent Green went down last year, despite the heroic efforts of Wally Richardson. If Green can stay healthy all season (a reasonably big if) then the Blitz have a legitimate shot of surpassing the Federals. We particularly like the addition of Mike Jones to the DE position and the potential of CB Chris McCallister to be an impact player in the secondary. Baltimore also went hard after the best kicker to come out of the college game in several years, signing Martin Gramatica to deal with the retirement of long-time Blitz kicker Luis Zendejas.

PHILADELPHIA STARS

1998 Record: 10-6, 1st in Atlantic

PREDICTED RECORD: 9-7, 3rd in Atlantic

Departures: CB Ray Mickens (FA), DT Tim Ryan (FA), HB Glyn Milburn (FA), CB Lorenzo Lynch (NFL), G Mike Wythcombe (RET)

New Arrivals: C Chris Thome (FA), DT Chris Maumalanga (FA), HB Kantroy Barber (FA), CB Corey Fuller (NFL)

Draft Class: LB Mike Peterson (Flor), CB Anthony Parker (Weber), WR Na Brown (UNC), G Cameron Spikes (TAMU), DT Garrett Johnson (Illinois)

OUTLOOK: I know it must look like we are disrespecting the 1998 Atlantic Division Champion Stars, and maybe we are. They have the best QB in the division in Bobby Hebert, but we are just not sold that they have the offensive weapons or the defensive strength to retain the title. Philadelphia is getting older, and their last few drafts have not produced the type of impact players that they need to take the next step. This year’s draft is no exception. LB Mike Peterson is a solid player but he is not going to revolutionize the Star defense, and the Stars simply did not do enough to add firepower to their offense with rookie Na Brown and HB Kantroy Barber being their biggest additions. Don’t be shocked if several teams leap over the Stars this season.

ORLANDO RENEGADES

1998 Record: 9-7, 3rd in South

PREDICTED RECORD: 10-6, 3rd in South

Departures: HB Kantroy Barber (FA), LB Mike Junkin (FA), QB Scott Zolak (FA), T Matt Patchan (FA), FS Tim McDonald (RET)

New Arrivals: TE Scott Eccles (FA), QB John Walsh (FA), TE John Henry Mills (FA)

Draft Class: CB Fernando Bryant (Alab), HB Amos Zeroue (WVU), WR Brandon Stokley (SW LA), T Mike Rosenthal (NDame), DE Lionel Barnes (NE LA), WR Donald Driver (Alcorn)

OUTLOOK: The Renegades will go as far as Scott Mitchell will take them. The ‘Gades have a solid defense and the potential for firepower on offense as well. Rookies Amos Zeroue and Brandon Stokley should play small roles, but can develop over the season. The big question is whether or not the selection (and failed attempt to sign) Dante Culpepper will impact Mitchell’s sense of himself as the starter in Orlando. He is not a slam dunk to excel each week, and a loss of confidence could be an issue for him. But, if he can maintain or even improve his game just slightly, the Renegades could be a contender in a packed Southern Division.

NEW JERSEY GENERALS

1998 Record: 7-9, 6th in Atlantic

PREDICTED RECORD: 9-7, 4th in Atlantic

Departures: DT Leonard Renfro (FA), WR Orlando McKay (FA), TE Mark Chmura (NFL), P Ray Criswell (RET), CB Cliff Hicks (RET), QB Tommy Maddox (Trade)

New Arrivals: QB Tony Sacca (FA), LB Paul McGowan (FA), CB Gene Atkins (FA), G Will Shields (FA), TE Mark Bruener (NFL)

Draft Class: CB Fred Vinson (Vandy), DT Jason Wiltz (Nebr), S Pierson Prioleau (Va Tech), LB Bobby Howard (NDame), WR Kevin Johnson (Syr), S Johndale Carty (UT St), G Anthony Cesario (CO St)

OUTLOOK: We see New Jersey as another club that could make a leap in 1999. They have some really good pieces in place, including a solid, if not spectacular defense, led by Sack Master Phil Hansen, and an offense with some growing talent. We love Terry Glenn out wide, and adding rookie speedster Kevin Johnson may help free Glenn up even more After a solid rookie campaign, we expect big things from HB Curtis Enis, and while free agency did not bring any huge names to the Generals, they did shore up and add depth on the O-line and on defense, both of which should help them be competitive in an Atlantic Division that looks to be all about defense and ball control.

MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS

1998 Record: 8-8, 4th in South

PREDICTED RECORD: 9-7, 4th in South

Departures: CB Otis Smith (FA), HB Dino Philyaw (FA), CB Derrick Cudrup (RET), K Kevin Shea (RET), CB Rodney Young (Trade)

New Arrivals: WR Ernie Jones (FA), G John Bruhin (FA), G Anthony Redman (FA), DT James Von Der Boeck (FA), LB Jim Schwantz (FA), G Todd Rucci (Trade)

Draft Class: LB Al Wilson (Tenn), CB Chris Watson (E Ill), K Jeff Hall (Tenn), HB De’Mond Parker (OU), G Yusuf Scott (Ariz), HB Aaron Stecker (WIU), LB Rahim Abdullah (Clem), DT Montae Reagor (TX Tech)

OUTLOOK: Memphis was a bit of a surprise last year, reaching 8-8 in a year when many of us saw them falling on their faces. Coach Mora is one of the best, and he is building a roster to compliment his preferred style of play. If he can find a way to reduce Heath Shuler’s costly interceptions, and if his defense can start to develop some playmakers, the Showboats could be a dangerous squad. The problem is that they still don’t seem to have the pieces in place to surpass either Tampa Bay or Birmingham, at least not on offense. Their target this year may be a Wild Card spot, because this division is going to be a big mountain to climb.

PITTSBURGH MAULERS

1998 Record: 8-8, 4th in Atlantic

PREDICTED RECORD: 6-10,

5th in Atlantic

Departures: CB Sonny Gordon (FA), DE Scott Keller (FA), DT James Von Der Boeck (FA), G Steve Kenney (NFL), QB Robbie Bosco (RET), HB Dorsey Levins (Trade), WR Derrick Mason (Trade)

New Arrivals: G John Rienstra (FA), TE Keith McKeller (FA), HB Terrell Davis (Trade), CB Patrick Surtain (Trade)

Draft Class: DE Dimitrius Underwood (Mich St), dT Roderick Coleman (ECU), T Jay Humphrey (Tex), S Chris Jones (Clem), S Rashard Cook (USC), TE Jermaine Wiggins (UGA), QB Shaun King (Tulane)

OUTLOOK: If Memphis was a pleasant surprise last year, Pittsburgh was a disappointment. Now we add the retirement of Robbie Bosco and the keys being handed over to an untested 2nd year QB and the Maulers have more questions than answers. They were huge movers and shakers in the offseason, acquiring Terrell Davis from the Breakers and then trading Dorsey Levins and Derrick Mason to Houston to obtain some help in the secondary. Pittsburgh’s strength may be on defense (sounds like the entire division, right?), but is their D enough to overcome what may be a rough learning experience for that offense? If Davis can establish himself as a 25-carry-a-game back, and a 1,400 yard back at that, the Maulers will be in a lot of games, and then it is just a matter of closing them out. That will be the best formula for this club.

OHIO GLORY

1998 Record: 7-9, 5th in Atlantic

PREDICTED RECORD: 5-11,

6th in Atlantic

Departures: CB Mike Riley (FA), DE Robert Goff (RET)

New Arrivals: CB Robert Massey (FA)

Draft Class: DE Lamar King (Saginaw), DE Jared Davies (Iowa), CB Mike McKenzie (Mem), C Todd McClure (LSU), LB Clint Kriewaldt (UW-SP), LB Brendon Ayanbadejo (UCLA), LB O.J. Childress (Clemson)

OUTLOOK: We are 4 years past the 1995 expansion and we have yet to see one of the 4 clubs make the playoffs. We find Ohio and Atlanta down at the bottom of the East and things don’t look any better for Seattle and LA either. So, is there any hope for these clubs? Well, in Ohio it we started to see some life last year with Eddie George starting to prove he had the talent everyone expected when he was drafted out of Ohio State. The Glory also have one of the best receivers in the league in fellow Buckeye Joey Galloway. The problem is that their defense has been pretty atrocious. Will that change this year? Hard to say yes to that. Sure, the Glory drafted heavy on defense, and they signed quite a few of those players, including DEs Lamar King and Jared DeVries, and LB’s Clint Kriewaldt and Brendon Ayanbadejo, but rookies don’t tend to be the core of a solid defense. Even with Robert Massey (CB) coming over from Memphis, this is an Ohio squad that is going to need time to grow. They have a future, but this year may be another long one in Columbus.

ATLANTA FIRE

1998 Record: 6-10, 5th in South

PREDICTED RECORD: 6-10, 5th in South

Departures: DT Chester McGlockton (FA), LB John Roper (FA), WR Ernie Jones (FA), HB Fred McAfee (NFL), DE Dale Rogers (RET)

New Arrivals: HB Vaughn Dunbar (FA), LB Johnny Holland (FA), DT Reggie Rogers (FA), LB Roman Phifer (NFL)

Draft Class: DT Anthony McFarland (LSU), LB Johnny Rutledge (Florida), DE Peppi Zellner (Ft Valley), S Paris Johnson (Miami OH), P Brian Moorman (Pitts St)

OUTLOOK: If any ‘95 expansion club is going to break the mold, there are some who think it will be Atlanta. They have a top HB in Tiki Barber, an improving defense with the additions of veterans Reggie Rogers (DT and Johnny Holland (LB), and with the talented rookies Anthony McFarland (DT) and Johnny Rutledge (LB). Atlanta also snagged former Rams LB Roman Phifer to add more experience to the defense. So, what is holding Atlanta back? Lack of a productive and consistent passing game is one area of concern. Jeff George did not exactly light the league on fire in his first USFL season, but that is often the case for a QB coming into the league after playing a full NFL season. Sometimes it takes a year, and the rest of a fall without football, before a former NFL player can blossom in the USFL. Atlanta fans are certainly hoping that is the case for George.

JACKSONVILLE BULLS

1998 Record: 3-13, 6th in South

PREDICTED RECORD: 4-12, 6th in South

Departures: LB Paul McGown (FA), LB Johnny Holland (FA), WR Kez McCorvey (FA), DT Reggie Rogers (FA), QB Steve Matthews (NFL), K Pete Stoyanovich (NFL), G Duval Love (RET)

New Arrivals: LB David Brandon (FA), LB Mike Junkin (FA), CB Sonny Gordon (FA)

Draft Class: DE Jevon Kearse (Florida), DT John Thornton (WVU), T Rex Tucker (TAMU), K Kris Brown (Nebr), S Tyree Talton (N Iowa), T Luke Petitgout (NDame), HB Sedrick Irvin (Mich St)

OUTLOOK: No one expected the Bulls to be one of the worst teams in the conference last season. Just a year earlier they looked like they had put it all together, but it all fell apart, and now they start the year with a new coach and a lot of questions. Getting DE freak Javon Kearse with the 3rd pick in the draft is certainly going to be huge for the Bulls, but so is bringing in free agents Mike Junkin (LB-ORL) and David Bradon (LB-BAL) to shore up a pretty shaky run stopping defense. The Bulls also brought in help for the secondary in the form of former Mauler Sonny Gordon (CB). They may need the defense to help them out this year as things are not gelling on offense for the Bulls. Chris Chandler has good receivers, a really nice trio led by Brian Blades and Terrell Owens, and you would hope that the addition of Michigan State’s Sedrick Irvin will help jumpstart a run game that Natrone Means simply could not do alone any longer, but there is a lot of doubt about all of it. So many ifs to deal with is not what you want in a preseason outlook.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

ST. LOUIS KNIGHTS

1998 Record: 14-2, First in Central

PREDICTED RECORD: 13-3, 1st in Central

Departures: G James Richards (FA), HB Darrell Thompson (FA), T Mike Haight (FA), QB Frank Reich (RET), LB Marcus Cotton (NFL), TE Alex Higdon (NFL), G Todd Rucci (Trade)

New Arrivals: DT John Jurkovic (FA), LB Trev Alberts (FA), WR Torrance Small (NFL), CB Rodney Young (Trade)

Draft Class: TE Reggie Kelly (Miss St), TE Steve Heiden (SDak St), HB Cecil Collins (McNeese), T Cornell Green (UCF), WR Sean Morey (Brown), QB Michael Bishop (K State)

OUTLOOK: After several years of expectations and flashes of brilliance, the Knights’ defense put it all together last season and propelled St. Louis to the Summer Bowl. Can they do it again, and maybe even come out on top? That could be tough, but they still have the core of that club and that defense on their side. Even if the defense steps back a bit, the Knights have enough other options to be competitive for a title. The run game got stronger with Ahman Green shifting into the lead position over the course of the year, and while Darrell Thompson left in free agency, Green, now paired with rookie Cecil Collins, will have a chance to flourish in the Knights’ power offense. St. Louis did not do much to add speed on offense, with the NFL’s Torrance Small being the only skill player acquired, and while they lost a few players in free agency on defense, the signing of Trev Alberts and John Jurkovic, both from Denver, gives them depth and power up the middle. We see the Knights being a tough team to dethrone though perhaps not as ensconced at the top as Tampa may be in the east.

ARIZONA WRANGLERS

1998 Record: 8-8, 4th in Pacific

PREDICTED RECORD: 11-5, 1st in Pacific

Departures: FS Martin Bayless (FA), G Todd Kaliss (FA), HB Karim Abdul-Jabbar (FA), HB Vaughn Dunbar (FA), DE Al Noga (NFL), T Kirk Lowdermilk (NFL), T Robert Curry (RET), WR J.J. Stokes (Trade)

New Arrivals: G Carl Bax (FA), HB Darrell Thompson (FA), WR Carl Pickens (FA), G Marco Rivera (NFL), DE Chike Okeafor (Trade)

Draft Class: T Matt Stinchcomb (UGA), DE Gary Stills (WVU), C grey Ruegamer (ASU), HB Olandis Gary (UGA), S Anthony Poindexter (UVa), K Jose Cortez (Ore St), LB JJay Foreman (Nebr), DE Tom Burke (Wisc)

OUTLOOK: The club with the best shot to dethrone St. Louis may well be the club they surprisingly faced in the Western Conference Championship. Arizona got hot at the right time and got two road wins in the playoffs to make it to the conference title tilt. This year they are hoping that is not necessary as they plan to win the Pacific Division. They are looking at what Tampa Bay did last year and think they too can boost their offense into elite standing. They added wideout Carl Pickens to bring another receiver into Jake Plummer’s arsenal, and then signed Darrell Thompson away from the Knights to add some dynamism to the run game. Expect a committee at HB with rookie Olandis Gary also getting some carries. The biggest addition on defense was DE Gary Stills, a 3rd round rookie pick who has looked good in camp. Arizona may have to play Tampa Bay and Birmingham’s game of outpacing opponents, but they have the weapons to do it.

DENVER GOLD

1998 Record: 12-4, 1st in Pacific

PREDICTED RECORD: 10-6, 2nd in Pacific

Departures: DT John Jurkovic (FA), LB Trev Alberts (FA), WR Curtis Marsh (FA), T Clint Berry (RET), QB Matt Hasselbeck (Trade)

New Arrivals: LB Tracy Rogers (FA), WR Dedric Smith (FA), T/G Blake Brockermeyer (NFL), T Adam Meadows (Trade)

Draft Class: WR Peerless Price (Tenn), T Chris Terry (UGA), LB Dat Nguyen (TAMU), DT Emarlos Leroy (UGA), T Joe Wong (BYU), G Kelvin Garmon (Baylor), S Eric Thigpen (Iowa)

OUTLOOK: Denver is unlikely to win a lot of shootouts. That has never been their way. Grind it out and shut down the speed of opposing offenses has been the strategy in Denver forever. And while Denver did add some offensive talent (Rookie WR Peerless Price and former Express WR Dedric Smith) the Gold focused more attention to the line, and it will be the play of the line that helps them find an offensive rhythm. If they can consistently run the ball with Salaam, it will make Mark Brunell more effective and shorten games, just what the Gold have always wanted to do.

OAKLAND INVADERS

1998 Record: 9-7, 3rd in Pacific

PREDICTED RECORD: 9-7,

3rd in Pacific

Departures: QB Mike Pawlowski (FA), QB John Walsh (FA), FS Robert Sparkman (RET), WR Henry Ellard (RET)

New Arrivals: HB Karim Abdul-Jabbar (FA), T John Michels (FA), QB Dave Brown (FA)

Draft Class: S Antuan Edwards (Clem), WR Marty Booker (NE LA), S Tony George (Florida), LB Rosevelt Colvin (Purdue), T Ryan Young (K State), HB Madre Hill (Ark), FB Alan Ricard (NE LA), T Kris Farris (UCLA), WR Karsten Bailey (Auburn)

OUTLOOK: Oakland, and their rookie QB, Ryan Leaf, started the 1998 season white hot, but cooled over the long summer months, fading down the stretch and making a quick playoff exit. If the Invaders are going to equal or best their 1998 performance, it will largely be on the development of Leaf at QB. The Invaders did not add a lot of big names this offseason, though the addition of tackle John Michels has to make Leaf happy. Adding HBs Madre Hill (rookie) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (free agent) may help relieve some of the pressure on Siran Stacy, and we will likely see some rotation at the position, but the receiving corps needs some attention. It simply is not the same without Henry Ellard drawing constant double coverage. On defense, the Invaders need to be more consistent and find ways to get off the field on 3rd down. They don’t have a lot of ball hawks to create takeaways, so for them the key is to keep teams to longer third downs and then come up with stops.

HOUSTON GAMBLERS

1998 Record: 7-9, 3rd in Central

PREDICTED RECORD: 9-7, 2nd in Central

Departures: G John Rienstra (FA), QB James Ritchey (FA), LB Fred Strickland (RET), CB Patrick Surtain (Trade), T Adam Meadows (Trade)

New Arrivals: G Todd Kaliss (FA), WR J.J. Stokes (Trade), HB Dorsey Levins (Trade), WR Derrick Mason (Trade), QB Matt Hasselbeck (Trade)

Draft Class: HB Kevin Faulk (LSU), TE Dan Campbell (TAMU), T Kevin Landolt (WVU), CB Kelly Herndon (Toledo), DE Chike Okeafor (Purdue-Traded to ARZ)

OUTLOOK: Is Houston gearing up to bring back the run & shoot? It sure seems like it with all the receiver talent they have amassed. Not only do they have starters Antonio Freeman and Brett Perriman, but they added Derrick Mason in trade with Pittsburgh and J. J. Stokes in trade from Arizona, and then added a solid pass-catching back in rookie Kevin Faulk, and a pretty good prospect at TE in Dan Campbell. After also nabbing Dorsey Levins in that same trade with Pittsburgh, don’t be shocked if we see a lot of 1 back, 3 wideout sets from the Gamblers and a lot of pass attempts again, after Chuck Hartlieb set a league record last year. The problem we see is that for all his passing, Hartlieb simply did not get results last year, and we worry that he is not the guy to turn the Gamblers into the Western Conference version of the Bandits. We suspect Coach Willsey believed the same thing, which is why they took the shot on Kentucky’s Tim Couch. Couch is now with the NFL Browns, which means it may have to be Hartlieb at least for one more year, though Houston did later trade for Denver backup Matt Hasselbeck, but we expect it to be Hartlieb once again, and we worry that this may just be enough to hold the Gamblers back.

PORTLAND THUNDER

1998 Record: 10-6, 2nd in Pacific

PREDICTED RECORD: 8-8, 4th in Pacific

Departures: LB Cedric Figaro (FA), CB Ben Smith (NFL), DT Mike Golic (NFL), QB Jack Trudeau (RET), K Al Del Greco (RET), G Stan Parker (RET), CB Dwayne Galloway (RET)

New Arrivals: CB Torin Dorn (FA), K John Kasay (FA), FS Mike Dumas (FA), DT Kelvin Pritchett (NFL)

Draft Class: QB Akili Smith (Ore), LB Joey Porter (CO St), WR Larry Parker (USC), DT Kelly Gregg (OU), G Craig Heimburger (Mizzou), WR Rondel Menendez (EKU)

OUTLOOK: It is a new look for the Thunder, though once again the key may well be the running of Robert Drummond. WIth Jack Trudeau retired, there is a legitimate battle in camp between backup Bill Musgrave and rookie Akili Smith. The money is on Smith to win this out, maybe not for week 1, but by midseason. You don’t outbid an NFL club just to keep a rookie with Smith’s credentials and expectations on the bench. Portland did not add much for Smith in free agency, focusing more on a spotty defense with the signing of former Jaguar DT Kelvin Pritchett, CB Ray Mickens and FS Mike Dumas, but they did draft and sign two wideouts in the draft, though neither Larry Parker nor Rondel Menendez are exactly Randy Moss, at least not in what we have seen so far. So, is Portland retooling or fully rebuilding? Maybe just somewhere in between.

TEXAS OUTLAWS

1998 Record: 8-8, 2nd in Central

PREDICTED RECORD: 7-9, 3rd in Central

Departures: QB Dave Brown (FA), TE John Henry Mills (FA), WR Carl Pickens (FA), FS Elbert Shelley (NFL), DT Lester Archambeau (NFL), DE Shawn Patterson (NFL), WR Irving Fryar (RET), CB Corey Sawyer (Trade)

New Arrivals: CB Jimmy Hitchcock (FA), WR Jeff Query (FA), TE Frank Wainright (NFL), QB Tommy Maddox (Trade), DE Mark Mraz (Trade)

Draft Class: S Scott Shields (Weber), TE Sheldon Jackson (Nebr), HB Autry Denson (NDame), WR Zola Davis (So Car), WR Eugene Baker (Kent), LB Chad Kelsay (Nebr)

OUTLOOK: Reggie Cobb and Kelly Stouffer are not getting any younger, and it seems that in many ways the Outlaws are not getting any better. WR continues to be an issue for the Outlaws as their roster just cannot seem to hold onto even quasi-good ones. We don’t see former Bandit Jeff Query as the answer, but he is the main receiver signed. Texas did invest at the TE position, both from the NFL with Frank Wainwright (Miami), and in the draft with Sheldon Jackson. That would seem to indicate that Coach Pardee has all but abandoned the wide open offense that has really never materialized in San Antonio, and is now ready to try pounding the ball with Cobb. Problem is, in order for that offensive scheme to work, you cannot fall behind in games, and Texas’s defense is concerning enough that we fully expect them to be playing from behind quite a bit.

SEATTLE DRAGONS

1998 Record: 7-9, 5th in Pacific

PREDICTED RECORD: 7-9, 5th in Pacific

Departures: CB Robert Massey (FA0, TE Keith McKeller (FA), LB Tommy Thigpen (FA), LB Jim Schwantz (FA), DT Tony Siragusa (NFL), S Alton Montgomery (NFL)

New Arrivals: LB John Roper (FA), TE John Embree (FA), CB Ray Mickens (FA)

Draft Class: WR David Boston (OSU), HB Joe Montgomery (OSU), TE Jerame Tuman (Mich), G Edwin Mulitalo (Ariz), LB Bryan Jones (OR St), T Barry Sims (Utah), FB Cecil Martin (Wisc), TE Bobby Collins (N Alab), CB Dre Bly (UNC)

OUTLOOK: Seattle was a hot pick last year to become the first of the ‘95 expansion clubs to make the playoffs, even picked by Chris Berman as a dark horse Summer Bowl participant, but while they had some moments last season it became clear pretty early that they were not ready for prime time quite yet. Did this offseason change that assessment? Not really. Yes, the Dragons added some good young talent in the draft, including OSU wideout David Boston, HB Joe Montgomery, and the star of camp, CB Dre Bly. They also Added two solid contributors on defense in free agency in LB John Roper and CB Ray Mickens. But did they really change the dynamics of the club? Hard to picture that. A lot may depend on if they have an answer at QB. Jon Kitna went into last year as the starter but an injury cut his season short, giving rookie Brian Griese a chance to play. This year those two have been battling in camp and Coach Joe Tiller has yet to name either one the Week 1 starter. You all know what they say about a club that has 2 QB’s. It means they may not really have one.

MICHIGAN PANTHERS

1998 Record: 7-9, 4th in Central

PREDICTED RECORD: 7-9,

4th in Central

Departures: DE Anthony Abrahms (FA), S Tony Covington (FA), TE Kerry Cash (FA), CB Garland Rivers (RET)

New Arrivals: WR Cedrick Tillman (FA)

Draft Class: LB Andy Katzenmoyer (OSU), S Cory Hall (Fresno), TE Desmond Clark (Wake), DT Marcus Spriggs (Troy), T Scott curry (Montana), CB Corey Ivy (OU)

OUTLOOK: Michigan’s early season hopes for a playoff run never materialized and the Panthers faded badly down the stretch, and yet this is a very talented team. They have solid starters at key positions, Flutie, Campbell, Watters, etc. They added a deep threat in Birmingham wideout Cedrick Tillman, and by all accounts their draft was very successful, netting potential starters on defense in DT Marcus Spriggs, LB Andy Katzenmoyer, and CB Corey Ivy (the likely season-starting nickel back). The fact that three defensive slots are likely taken by rookies shows you one of the main concerns. This is a defense in search of an identity. Coach Skip Holtz has yet to really put together a defensive scheme that plays well to the talent the Panthers have. Without that, the Panthers seem to be running in place, waiting for something to give and for the club to make a move to change the middle-of-the-pack situation they find themselves in. We are not seeing that big break happening this year.

NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS

1998 Record: 6-10, 5th in Central

PREDICTED RECORD: 5-11, 5th in Central

Departures: CB James Hasty (FA), CB Gene Atkins (FA), LB Sam Rogers (NFL), WR Herman Fontenot (RET), WR Clarence Collins (RET)

New Arrivals: DT Leonard Renfro (FA), CB Mike Riley (FA), DT Tim Ryan (FA),

Draft Class: HB Ricky Williams (Texas), T Jerry Wisne (NDame), S Keion Carpenter (Va Tech), CB Daylon McCutcheon (USC), WR D’Wayne Bates (NWern)

OUTLOOK: What can we say about the Breakers’ offseason that has not already been said. First they retain Coach Ditka when everyone expected him to be gone after a 4-win debacle in 1998, then they all but hand the GM keys to him when they allow for almost their entire draft to be traded away to acquire Ricky Williams. Despite the fact that the Breakers also added 3 defenders in free agency (DT’s Leonard Renfro and Tim Ryan and CB Mike Riley) we all know that the season, and Coach Ditka’s job, all hang on the success or failure of Williams. But what does he need to do to be a success? Is 1,000 yards enough? 1,500? Will that matter if the Breakers again lose 10+ games? Honestly, unless New Orleans shocks everyone and wins 9-10 games and a playoff spot, we don’t see how Big Mike can justify the cost of bringing in the big back, especially when Terrell Davis had shown he was capable of being a solid offensive weapon for the club. If there is such a thing as a lose-lose proposition, this year’s offseason may be it.

LOS ANGELES EXPRESS

1998 Record: 2-14, 6th in Pacific

PREDICTED RECORD: 4-12, 6th in Pacific

Departures: TE John Embree (FA), WR Dedrick Smith (FA), QB Glenn Foley (NFL), LB Curtis Taliferro (NFL), FS Merton Hanks (NFL), QB Sean Salisbury (RET)

New Arrivals: FS Martin Bayless (FA), DT Chester McGlockton (FA), TE Kerry Cash (FA), LB George Koonce (NFL)

Draft Class: WR Tory Holt (NC St), QB Cade McNown (UCLA), S Rich Coady (TAMU), DT Cletidus Hunt (KY St), C J.P. Machado (Illinois), P Chris Hanson (Marshall), LB Khari Samuel (UMass), G Brian Walters (UNT), TE Mark Campbell (Mich), T John Welbourn (Cal), FB Shawn Bryson (Tenn)

OUTLOOK: It is hard to decide whether the 2-win Express or the 3-win Machine hold the position as the league’s worst club right now. Both have new coaches, former Bulls’ head man Galen Hall in LA and former 49er OC Marty Mornhinweg in Chicago, but we feel a bit better about the Express than the Machine if for no reason than that they made some big moves this offseason. Gaining all those picks from New Orleans to move from 1st to 4th in the draft was one huge factor, but also taking the gamble to draft Tory Holt at #4, delaying their QB pick until the 2nd round, and still landing the guy they wanted, UCLA’s Cade McNown, was another. Add to this the signing of DT Chester McGLockton away from Atlanta, FS Martin Bayless from division foe Arizona, and LB George Koonce from the NFL and you have a club that is at least making an effort to improve. It may be a rough first year for Coach Hall and the Express as they break in a rookie QB, but at least we see a plan in place in LA.

CHICAGO MACHINE

1998 Record: 3-13, 6th in Central

PREDICTED RECORD: 4-12, 6th in Central

Departures: T John Michels (FA), TE Scott Eccles (FA0, WR Wendell Davis (RET), QB Chris Miller (RET), LB Fred Smalls (RET), G Juan Casteneda (RET), C Frank Winters (NFL)

New Arrivals: DE Ray Agnew (FA), T Louis Cheek (FA), CB Eric Allen, T Andy Heck (NFL)

Draft Class: TE Jim Kleinsasser (UND), G Solomon Page (WVU), QB Aaron Brooks (UVA), DT Talance Sawyer (UNLV), WR Terrence Wilkins (UVA), S Tony Booth (J Madison)

OUTLOOK: We are just not sure what the plan is in Chicago. Clearly a big piece of the plan was started before the late hire of Mornhinweg, as the draft and most of free agency was completed before he came on board. And, of course, the big story for Chicago in the draft was the inability to lure Syracuse QB Donovan McNabb away from the NFL. That is still the subject of all sorts of ranting on Chicago sports radio, as fans are just not comfortable with the choice of Alex Van Pelt or Jeff Garcia at quarterback for the season. Chicago also has one of the least impressive receiving corps in the league, with no real additions this year and the departure of Wendell Davis. Chicago did improve their line, signing RT Andy Heck away from the NFL, and some good pick ups for the D in free agency, landing CB Eric Allen and DE Scott Keller. The draft was not a complete failure either as both TE Jim Kliensasser and rookie WR Terrence Wilkins have a legitimate shot to start in their first year. The same is likely not the case for midround pick at QB Aaron Brooks who will need time to develop. Chicago does not have the look or the feel of a club who will rebound soon after they collapsed last year. We expect to see them right back at the top of the draft in 2000 with a lot of improvements still needed, especially on defense.

SEASON PREDICTIONS:

So, after ranking the teams in each conference, what is left to say? Well, here is the big picture. We see a real shot for Tampa Bay and St. Louis to once again claim the top seeds in their conference, with Washington and upstart Arizona locking up the other two byes. That leaves 8 WIld Card slots for a solid group of about 10-12 potential competitors. In our minds the top candidates for each conference’s 4 Wild Card spots are Birmingham, Baltimore, Orlando, and and either Memphis, New Jersey, or Philly in the East, with a cluster of teams, particularly in the Pacific Division out west. We will choose Denver, Portland, Oakland and a youthful Houston squad to come out of the jumble in the West.

So who makes it to the Summer Bowl? It would be too easy to pick Tampa Bay and St. Louis to repeat their matchup from last year, even if that is the odds on matchup according to Las Vegas. So, we are going to go with two contenders instead. Just like last year we see the title game as a battle between an offensive club and a defensive club, but the roles are reversed between East and West. We predict it will be the defensive might of Washington against the young and talented offense of Arizona in this year’s Summer Bowl, played for the second time in Los Angeles, but the first time in Farmer's Insurance Field, home to both the USFL Express and the NFL Raiders. Expect the stars to be out that night, including a halftime show featuring California icons, the Beach Boys, the Go-Go's, and newcomer Sugar Ray.