Win and you are in. Win and you get a bye week. Those tend to be pretty big incentivizers around pro football, and while those incentives certainly showed up for the Washington Federals and St. Louis Knights, they did not seem to be enough to make a difference in Texas, Houston, Seattle, Arizona, and most surprisingly, Tampa Bay. Now admittedly, Tampa also needed help to get in, but they did not get it from Division Champ Memphis, as the Showboats guaranteed that the Bandits would not be a factor in this year’s playoff race. It was the last week of the season, and that brings, as it always seems to, a mixed bag of teams desperate for a win, teams resting players before the postseason, and teams just slogging towards the offseason and the golf course. We start our review of the final week of this 1999 season with the one game that was Win & In for both clubs, which made it the Game of the Week.
In the week’s only “Win and you are in” game, the Ohio Glory and Washington Federals both knew that a win got them a Wild Card and a loss ended their season. As many predicted the veteran and playoff savvy Federals had the edge when the pressure was on. They scored the game’s first 10 points and never trailed as 10-0 became 20-3 and eventually 20-15.
Kordel Stewart avoided Ohio’s meager pass rush and threw for 254 yards and 2 scores to lead the Federals. Kerry Collins outgained Stewart, with 374 yards, but Washington totally shuttered the Glory rushing attack, focusing on Eddie George and limiting him to only 15 yards on the ground. Second year corner Charles Woodson was the player of the game with 9 tackles, 4 passes defended and a pick as the Federals edged their way into the playoffs at 8-8. Ohio also finished the season at 8-8, their highest win total in club history but still not enough as they are eliminated on tie-breakers. Joey Galloway remains the biggest star on the Glory roster, catching 10 balls for 124 yards in the loss, but a total that gives him 1,715 for the year, winning the league receiving yards race against Birmingham’s Lawrence Dawsey, who did not play this week, along with most Stallions starters.
MEM 37 TBY 10
A deeply disappointing conclusion to a deeply disappointing season for Tampa Bay as they were utterly dominated by the Memphis Showboats. The offense which had led them to a title last year sputtered and self-destructed, with Troy Aikman throwing 2 costly picks and Errict Rhett limited to only 33 yards rushing. When Memphis’s Bobby Olive is the game’s leading receiver with 121 yards, you know Tampa Bay is not in rhythm. The home loss removed Tampa Bay from Wild Card consideration and gives them a losing record one year after taking home the title.
ATL 6 ORL 27
The Renegades come into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league, easily defeating a tired and listless Fire squad. Donald Driver wrapped up an outstanding rookie campaign with 5 receptions for 74 yards and Terry Kirby once again showed he is one of the game’s most versatile backs, with 18 carries and 5 receptions in the game. He finished the year with 947 yards rushing and 445 receiving.
JAX 27 BIR 34
Danny Kanell got the start for Birmingham and looked good under center, throwing for 297 yards and 3 scores as Brett Favre was rested before next week’s home Wild Card game. Stephen Davis also returned to action, but was limited to only 15 plays from scrimmage and 3 carries. For Jacksonville, soon-to-be free agent Terrell Owens made his case with 10 receptions for 110 yards.
PIT 16 PHI 14
The Maulers continued their win streak, but it was not easy as Philadelphia played hard. Will Furrer got the start over a dinged up Bobby Hebert and another potential free agent, Darrell Thompson, rushed the ball 20 times as the Stars kept the game close. In the end Charlie Batch was able to lead Pittsburgh into range for Scott Blanton, who kicked home the winning field goal to boost Pittsburgh to the #4 seed and a home playoff game.
NJ 6 BAL 19
A long year of offensive futility ended for the Generals as it has been all year, with an underwhelming showing. Baltimore played most of their starters in hopes that Memphis would lose and the Blitz could snag the #1 seed. They did not but Baltimore gave the home crowd another W to celebrate as a Malcolm Floyd TD and 4 Grammatica field goals were more than enough to put away the Generals.
NOR 25 TEX 22
Is it another late season Texas swoon? The Outlaws could not muster enough to win at home against a game Breaker club, losing the division title and the bye week to the Knights. With Reggie Cobb sidelined by a nagging ankle injury, Rodney Thomas, set to be a free agent this offseason, ran the ball 20 times but for only 55 yards. New Orleans finished the year strong, ending at 7-9, but is it enough for ownership to keep Mike Ditka on?
HOU 3 STL 36
The Knights looked primed for a playoff run, demolishing the Houston Gamblers behind 77 yards and 2 scores from Ahman Green. The defense sacked Chuck Hartlieb 7 times and picked him off twice as the Knights clearly set the tone for what they hope is a long playoff run. The win, paired with Texas’s lost, gives the Knights the division title and a bye next week. Houston, despite losing, manages to back their way into the playoffs at 8-8.
CHI 20 MGN 17
Michigan came out flat, despite keeping their starters in, and a Machine club that has had a solid second half of the season, played as if this were their playoff game. The combo or Ricky Watters and Duce Staley looked good, combining for 151 yards and 2 scores on the ground. Michigan, having already clinched a playoff spot, kept the game close, but never seemed in control.
ARZ 14 DEN 34
The Gold burst out with 21 points in the first quarter as they played to lock up a home Wild Card game. Arizona, with only a very slim chance of obtaining a playoff spot, could not respond. Rashaan Salaam finished the year with a 113 yard performance, while, for Arizona, Jake Plummer ended up as the leading rusher with 91 yard and 2 scores as he scrambled and bootlegged throughout the game.
SEA 10 POR 17
Portland has little to celebrate this year, but knocking Seattle out of playoff contention with a Week 16 home win might be their highlight. Akili Smith continued to struggle at QB, but 115 yards and 2 scores from Robert Drummond was enough to knock off the Dragons despite a huge 184-yard day from rookie David Boston.
LA 21 OAK 35
It was a battle of backups in Oakland as the Invaders took advantage of LA resting their big names and got a rare win to end the year. Brent Pease played solidly for the Express, but with the #1 seed well in hand the fire was no there against their in-state rivals. Oakland got 109 yards rushing and 2 scores from their running back duo of Stacy and Davis. Rookie Marty Booker had his best game, catching 4 balls for 146 yards, including a massive 73 yard catch & run.
This week’s results have finalized the playoff standings and set up 4 Wild Card games for next week. At the top nothing changed, with Memphis and Los Angeles owning the #1 seed. St. Louis, after weeks trailing the Texas Outaws, got the results they wanted and moved into the #2 seed in the West by winning the Central Division. Baltimore has the #2 in the East. Hosting Wild Card games will be #3 seeds Birmingham and Denver along with #4 seeds Pittsburgh and Texas, all with 10 wins or more. Michigan and Houston back into the #5 and #6 seeds in the West, while Orlando and Washington get #5 and #6 in the East with wins this week.
The big losers on Week 16 include Texas, missing out on a division title with a bad loss this week, Ohio and Seattle, who could not reach 9-7 and a playoff berth, and two teams picked for Summer Bowl 1999, as both Arizona and Tampa Bay finish the year a deeply disappointing 7-9. Atlanta finishes with the worst record in the league at 2-14, assuring them the #1 draft pick in the 2000 draft. They are followed by Oakland (4-12), Philadelphia (5-11), then Chicago, Portland, Jacksonville and New Jersey, all at 6-10.
Kudos to the League’s Best
Let’s start our stories with this year’s leaders in the major statistical categories. Only 1 new league record this year and so we begin by recognizing the now 2-time league sack leader, Chris Doleman of Orlando. Doleman dueled with Phil Hansen of New Jersey and the Dynamic Duo of Sinclair and Pittman in Houston all season long, but a huge 5-sack game and a late surge put him over the top. The new sack record for the USFL sits at a painful 29 sacks in a 16 game season. We feel for you QB’s, with edge rushers like the ones on display now in the league it is amazing any team gets through a year with their starting QB intact.
Kudos as well to a player who left the frying pan and ended up not in the fire, but on fire. Terrell Davis wins his first league rushing title in a year when he left New Orleans and was unceremoniously dumped by Mike Ditka in favor of rookie Ricky Williams. Williams had a strong year with 1,078 yards rushing, but Davis had the last laugh, not only winning the rushing title with nearly 1,300 yards, but by helping Pittsburgh win 6 straight to enter the playoffs as the #4 seed, while New Orleans finished 7-9 and Coach Ditka was shown the door.
Two more first-time winners in our league leaders as Heath Shuler had by far his best season as a pro, leading the league in QB Rating at 117.9. His 4937 yards and 41 TDs may be second to Brett Favre in those categories, but he won the bigger prize, leading Memphis to a division title over Birmingham. In Ohio. The 8-8 finish for the Glory was disappointing, but don’t lay that on Joey Galloway, who proved once again that he is a major deep threat and a solid all around receiver. Galloway finished the year with 1,715 yards on 112 receptions, good enough to edge out Lawrence Dawsey for the title, another Memphis win over Birmingham.
Finally, in a very rough year in Atlanta, the play of LB Mo Lewis should be highlighted. The Fire defense was, let’s say, not good. That is a kind thing to say, but Lewis was a rock. His 129 tackles were as much about his talent as the inability of others on the team to make plays. We are sure he would rather make 80 tackles on a contender, but in Atlanta he and HB Tiki Barber may be the best players as the club again tries to build a winner.
Black Monday Arrives
We hinted at it first, then stated it in our discussion of Terrell Davis, but Black Monday did claim a victim in Breakers’ head coach Mike Ditka. The team invested heavily in Ditka and his scheme to sign Ricky Williams, and while Williams looked good, the team did not, finishing 7-9 and out of playoff contention all year. Only some late season wins when the playoffs had already been forgotten helped the club look like better than a cellar dweller. Ditka, who has had issues with talented players on his squad, particularly on offense, over the years, just could never reach the heights with New Orleans that he did when with the NFL Bears. His defense this year gave up 346 points, which put them solidly in the lower half of USFL clubs, not exactly what the team was hoping for in a make or break year for Big Mike. So, Ditka is done, and now the Breakers have to reassess and rebuild around LB Lamar Lathon and HB Ricky Williams. Will they stick with Jamie Martin at QB? Will they upgrade at receiver? And who will they add to put some aggression in that D? Lots of questions for a club that may not be as good as their 7 wins might indicate.
The second Black Monday victim was very much expected, with Sherm Lewis being let go after three very sub-par seasons at Bobby Dowd. Lewis came to Atlanta with a reputation as an offensive guru, and while he has had some success with the run game of Tiki Barber, the offense as a whole has never worked. Barber had a major backslide this year, not finishing in the Top 10 running backs, and that may be in large part due to the chaos at QB which made the Atlanta passing game a bit of a joke. Atlanta had brought in Jeff George, but he proved both injury prone and ineffective at creating a deep ball attack. By midseason he had been traded to Chicago and Atlanta tried to win with former UGA Bulldog Eric Zeier under center. That too proved a failure and the last few games of the year they turned the ball over to rookie Aaron Brooks, and he played very much as a rookie does. So, with an offense that scored only 233 points, and a defense that gave up a whopping 442, there was not much to celebrate in the Peachtree City. So, Sherm Lewis is gone and now Atlanta will look for a 3rd coach in 6 years. Having failed with 2 NFL guys in Dan Reeves and Sherm Lewis, the Fire remain the sad sacks of the class of 1995 expansion clubs. Will they turn to a college coach? Or perhaps a USFL coordinator to right the ship and build something? They need to do something soon, the new car smell has left the franchise and the smell they have now is not one that will attact a lot of fans to Bobby Dowd on a hot & humid summer day.
Those were the two releases on Black Monday, to go along with the firing of Dan Reeves in Oakland, and the seemingly voluntary departure of Vince Tobin in Portland. No news yet on those two positions, but it is early. We also know that Raymond Berry has announced he will retire after 7 pretty good years (1999 excluded) in Philadelphia. We are awaiting a farewell sendoff, and we fully expect that as soon as it is set, the Stars will announce that Jim Mora Jr. will be the new head coach of the Stars. That should get the Stars fanbase amped up again after a very disappointing 5-11 campaign.
Looking at our 8 Wild Card teams, there are some situations here that could require some adjustments. Here is the injury forecast for all 8 clubs.
BIR: LB Lorenzo Styles (IR), DT Mike Wells (Out)
The Stallions are getting Stephen Davis back, and he should be the lead back this week after just a few snaps last week. Styles and Wells being out could mean the inside run might be available for Washington.
PIT: LB Steve Tovar (Out), G Rod Milstead (Doubtful), SS Sam Shade (Doubtful)
Pittsburgh has gotten used to paying without Milstead, who has missed the 2nd half of the season. Losing Shade impacts the secondary, which is not good if Orlando gets McCardell back to pair with Driver.
ORL: FB Chris Fuamatu-Ma’afala (Out), WR Keenan McCardell (Probable)
Getting McCardell at full strength should help Scott Mitchell out, but losing Chris “F-M” will be an issue for the run game. Expect them to compensate with a lot of 1-back formation for Kirby.
WSH: DE Bobby Hamilton (IR), T Grant Williams (Out), LB Winston Moss (Out), FS Bennie Thompson (Doubtful).
Moss’s injury has certainly impacted the Federal D, and now likely missing on Bennie Thompson as well could be an issue for the secondary, especially against Birmingham.
TEX: QB Kelly Stouffer (Out), CB Jerome Henderson (Out)
Only 2 players definitely out this week, but when one is your starting QB, that is a concern. Stouffer’s absence puts a lot of pressure on Jack Pardee to prepare a game plan that Tommy Maddox can succeed in.
DEN: T Jason Odom (IR), FS Myron Guyton (Questionable)
The loss of Odom is a pretty big deal, especially for HB Rashaan Salaam. Expect Denver to shift a lot of their runs to the left side of the line, but expect Michigan to also prepare for that.
MGN: CB Billy Austin
The Panthers come into the Wild Card playoffs with a pretty healthy club, so no worries here.
HOU: DE Kavika Pittman (IR), CB Ashley Ambrose (Questionable)
With two of their top defenders out for this game, the pressure will be on Chuck Hartlieb and the offense to deliver, because the odds of Houston holding even a Tommy Maddox led Outlaws squad down without Pittman and Ambrose seem slim.
Wildcard weekend! This should be good. We have a wide range of teams in this year’s pool, some who have been at or near the top of the league power poll all year long, some that seem to be backing into the playoffs, and some that just barely clawed their way into a low seed. That could make for some uneven games, or a wild upset. Let’s take a look at our 4 playoff games for this week and see what stands out.
Saturday, July 10 @ 3pm ET
Legion Field
About as diametrically opposed as two teams can get. Birmingham flirted with a division title and top seed in the East all season long only to fall 1 game short. They are all about offense, and particularly passing offense. Brett Favre leads a talented group of receivers that is back to full strength with the return of Ernest Givens in what may be his final year in the league. Givens, Dawsey, and Marcus Robinson are a nightmare for defenses. The goal for the Stallions, as always, is to get out to an early lead and then rush the passer to disrupt any comeback attempt. In rookie Mike Rucker (20 sacks) they have a perfect weapon for pressuring opposing QBs and preventing teams from coming back against an otherwise iffy defense.
For Washington the story and the strategy are quite different. The Federals, who won the title 2 years ago on defense, rely heavily on ball control, clock management, and stuffing the run. That last item won’t help them this week, so they will need to regear their D-line to rush the passer. With Jerome Brown in the center of that line they can be very disruptive, but expect them to also blitz as needed to put pressure on Favre, who can throw some bad picks from time to time when under pressure. On offense Washington will try to control the ball with their run game, led by Barry Word, and move Kordell Stewart out of the pocket to avoid Rucker and the Stallion pass rush. The Feds cannot win a shootout, so they need to keep the game close throughout and hope for 1-2 big plays that turn the tide their way.
PREDICTION: Washington needed a final week win against Ohio just to get here, and we are not feeling much confidence that their defense is well-suited to stop the Stallion passing attack. We see some potential for this to get out of hand early. Birmingham wins, 31-17.
Saturday, July 10 @ 7pm ET
AlamoDome
Both Texas and Michigan are capable of playing lights out football, but both are also capable of laying an egg. With Kelly Stouffer out last week, Texas blew a chance to win the division and get a bye. That loss means they must now play this week and very likely without Stouffer once again. For Michigan, it has been an up and down season every week, and it is hard to predict who will show up for the Panthers this week.
Michigan has talent on offense in the presence of Doug Flutie, Ricky Watters, and wideout Jeff Campbell. It is not an explosive offense, but it is one that can keep the chains moving and slowly accrue points. The defense is middling, but can disrupt an offense if they can avoid the big play. That would seem to be the key for Michigan, play ball control, move the chains, offense and avoid giving up big plays on defense. For Texas the big question mark has to be the QB position. Will we get a big day from Tommy Maddox, like the one we saw 2 weeks ago, or will we get the Tommy Maddox who did not impress as a starter in New Jersey? The defense is stout and has the tools to limit Michigan’s offensive options, but Texas needs to score points. Our key to the game is the play of the run game. If Reggie Cobb and Rodney Thomas can reach 100 yards or more combined, that bodes well for the Outlaws.
PREDICTION: Yes, Texas has a long history of fading down the stretch, but Michigan has not exactly been on a tear either. We think that the combination of home field advantage and a solid run game may be enough for Texas to pull this one out. The one X factor is Flutie. When he is average, so is Michigan, but every once in a while the Flutie Magic shows up and then all bets are off. We pick Texas to win, but don’t hold us to it. Outlaws 24-22.
Sunday, July 11 @ 12pm ET
Three Rivers Stadium
This is the game no one wants to miss. Pittsburgh and Orlando have been without a doubt the two hottest clubs of the season’s second half, with the Maulers on a 6-game winning streak and the Renegades only 1 back with a 5-game streak. Neither team is flashy, neither one has huge media stars on the roster, but both teams are solid in every phase of the game and both have the capacity to wear down the opposition.
The key for Pittsburgh is the play of Terrell Davis. After his issues with Mike Ditka in New Orleans, the bruising back was traded this offseason to the Maulers and he responded by winning the league rushing title with 1,234 yards. Davis can set the tone for the Maulers, and if he gets success on early downs it makes life that much easier for Charlie Batch to find receivers open on play action and convert on 3rd down. The defense is good, but not dominant. Patrick Surtain has been strong in the secondary, so that could help deal with rookie Donald Driver of Orlando, but they are going to need an answer for Terry Kirby if they want to win.
Orlando relies a lot on Kirby’s versatility, used almost as often as a receiver than as a rusher. Scott Michtell had a very good year, finishing 4th in the QB Ratings at 98.9, with 23 TDs, but he also threw 12 picks. If he is careless with the ball, Orlando is sunk. Slow and steady will win this race for the ‘Gades. The other huge factor, and we mean huge, is DE Chris Doleman. Doleman won his second consecutive sack title this year, edging out Phil Hansen, and setting a new league record with 29 sacks in 16 games. He could give Pittsburgh fits all day. The Maulers will need to be successful with the run just to protect Batch from the big and fast DE of Orlando.
PREDICTION: As much as we love the year that Terrell Davis has had, Orlando can stack the line on early downs and then let Doleman loose on 3rd down. That is a bad formula if you are Charlie Batch. If Orlando can play steady on offense, the combination of Mitchell and Kirby can break down Pittsburgh. We like Orlando 27-21.
Sunday, July 11 @ 4pm ET
Mile High Stadium
Denver, as they so often do, seemed to sneak into a high seed and a home playoff game. We have all been so enamored with the rise of the Express in the Pacific that we pretty much ignored a pretty solid season for the Gold. But that is the thing, Denver always seems to have a solid, but forgettable, season that ends with a playoff defeat. Is this the week that defeat comes? Perhaps. Houston wins with defense, that much is clear. But since losing Kawika Pittman to injury, the dynamic duo up front has become just Michael Sinclair, and as good as he is, without Pittman opposite him teams can double up and greatly improve their chance of an upright QB. Add to this that Mark Brunell is a leftie, which means he is opposite Sinclair’s natural side and the chance of blind side sacks are greatly diminished. Houston may try moving Sinclair around to deal with this but any time you move a player out of their usual position you risk that player making mistakes.
Houston’s best chance is to see if they can get some production out of the combo of Dorsey Levins and Kevin Faulk, even if that is through the screen game, where Faulk excels. Without a solid run game you put Chuck Hartlieb in a tough spot. Denver too has a strong pass rush, led by Leslie O’Neill, and they feast on one-dimensional teams. Houston needs to balance what they do and Hartlieb needs to stay clean and in the game mentally. If he starts throwing picks or missing on 3rd down, Houston could be in big trouble.
PREDICTION: We think Denver gets through this round. Houston has lost 2 in a row and has been inconsistent all year. Denver has been the more consistent team and has that huge Mile High home field advantage, if only for this week. Next week could be tough for the Gold, but we think they have this game in hand. Denver 24-14.
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