January 10, 2001
The four-day meeting of the league’s 24 ownership groups, along with the leaguewide office holders from NYC met, concluded this past Friday and while some of the announcements made over the course of the gathering were largely expected and pro forma, there was some excitement and surprise as well. We begin with the expected and then move on to two significant changes on the horizon for the league.
Twenty Seasons
The league announced on the first day of the meetings that there would be considerable pomp and hoopla to be had during the 2002 season to mark the 20th season of the once upstart spring football league. This will include the usual fanfare, with items such as commemorative patches to be worn on uniforms, special fan-centered celebrations during the season’s first week, an expanded festivities both at Hall of Fame Weekend in October of 2001 and at the 2002 Summer Bowl in Pittsburgh, and a series of tour events around the league during the season, highlighting great teams and players of the past 20 years. The league has even contracted with ABC to put together a large format film on the history of the league to air at IMAX studios around the country leading up to the kickoff of the league’s 20th season.
Changes in Franchise Ownership
By Tuesday the meetings had turned to more weighty matters, with several ownership groups seeking to either sell their franchises or expand ownership with additional investors. Most proposals were uncontentious and largely rubber stamped, with Philadelphia, Houston, Denver, and LA adding minority owners to their ownership groups without controversy.
Washington posed a challenge to the owners as the Federals’ principal owner, Berl Bernard (a prominent DC attorney), leader of the limited partnership Washington Football Partners LLC was seeking to sell his holdings to a minority owner, Ted Lerner, a Maryland real estate developer. Lerner, who has been involved in early discussions to bring major league baseball back to the capital, is seen as a major force in the negotiations to renovate or replace RFK stadium. This is seen as a positive for the Federals as the state of their stadium has become something of a concern. Of course, the controversy lies in whether or not Lerner will prioritize the campaign for DC baseball at the expense of the operation of the Federals franchise, though, should the former movement gain steam, a baseball/football joint use stadium might just be the solution to Washington’s stadium issues. While multipurpose stadia have been waning in popularity since the 1990’s, and with the Redskins firmly ensconced in their own Landover (MD) facility, the expectation that the DC metro area could add both baseball and a new football stadium at once does seem dubious. This is where the appeal of a multi-use facility could tip the scales.
The second major ownership debate surrounded the Birmingham Stallions. In an effort to expand their revenue base, as well as the potential value of the franchise, also in hopes of cajoling a new stadium out of the state of Alabama and the city of Birmingham, the ownership of the Stallions, primarily in the figure of Marvin Warner, proposed the creation of a public company, Stallions Football LLC, to take the place of the private ownership group, at least in part. The proposal would allow for the sale of shares in the Stallions, with the current ownership retaining a 61% stake in the company and allowing 39% to be sold on the market (likely the Nasdaq) to expand ownership to the community.
This move would both expand the coffers of the Warner-led group, but also provide community buy-in which could sway later explorations of stadium development by the city or state. Of course, there were detractors to this model, after all the private ownership of sports franchises is by far the norm across the country, with the Green Bay Packers of the NFL being the only true example of a publicly traded or community-owned sports franchise. However, with the unique situation of Birmingham as a smaller market, in a football-crazed part of the nation, and in a city without other likely tenants for a new arena, save perhaps the University of Alabama at Birmingham, the deal did have an appeal to it. The reassurance that a 61-39 split between private and community ownership assures that the leadership of the Stallions would remain intact, and that helped create a sense of continuity for those owners who fear pushes to move towards community ownership as a larger trend. The proposal went through several votes but finally achieved the needed 2/3 supermajority of representative votes to be approved. Expect details on the IPO to come out in the summer of 2001, with the likely opening bell sometime in September of this year.
USFL RETURNS TO A 2-STAGE ROOKIE DRAFT
Having dealt with the internal financial decisions, the owners next responded to a proposal from the league’s competition committee. In most years the committee focuses on minor rule changes and penalty adjustments, and there were a couple of these this year, mostly dealing with dual engagement blocks (cut blocks and the like) and limitations on formations during kickoffs to minimize injuries, but the biggest news was that surrounding the USFL Draft. After nearly 2 years of research and discussion the league has voted to re-adopt the Territorial Draft as a part of the Collegiate Draft format.
First used in the early years of the spring league, the T-Draft, as it is commonly known, provides each club with a set number of protected or designated territorial schools. Each club has set number of picks which are reserved for players from these schools, with all other eligible players who go unselected then available for the open draft. The T-Draft was designed to allow for local college talent to bring their regional fame and fan interest along to their USFL team. The T-Draft was abandoned in favor of the current salary cap discount each franchise holds for players from designated schools, but the competition committee recommended a return to a protected draft, and despite some concerns from teams, particularly those in the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, the proposal was adopted, to go into effect for the 2002 draft.
The T-Draft will look a little different in 2002 than it did in the 1980’s. Each franchise will select 3 schools as their designated protected schools, however only 1 is required to have a geographical tie to the franchise. This will allow a club like the Generals or Stars to select Oklahoma, Auburn, or the University of Miami as one of their protected schools if not chosen already by another club. The designation of each school will be locked in for a 5-year period, so as to not allow clubs to designate a particular school just to have the exclusive rights to a rising senior in that year’s draft. Every 5 years a franchise may opt to change 2 of their 3 designated schools, creating a more consistent alignment between universities and franchises in the league. Finally, the draft will be limited to 5 players per year, meaning that a good number of top level players will remain available for the open draft even from schools in the protected list. The salary cap discount will be adjusted from a 50% reduction to 75%, so the incentive to sign players at certain high cost positions like quarterback or defensive end may not be quite as preeminent.
So, what can we expect? When the allocation of franchises is completed next September, I think it is safe to say that Birmingham will lock up Alabama right away, as will LA with USC, the Glory with Ohio State, and Chicago with Notre Dame. Expect clubs like New Jersey or Arizona to shoot for their non-regional schools first, trying to snag a pro-player factory like an LSU or Michigan, before later signing on with a less “in demand” regional school like Rutgers, Syracuse or Arizona State. Expect very few non-power conference schools to be selected, though with 24 clubs each selecting 3 schools, 72 schools will be named in total. Also expect that clubs will do as they did during the first iteration of the T-Draft, which is to trade the rights to these picks just as they trade open draft selections. For example, a club that has a solid starter at QB may trade away a pick to another so that the top prospect QB from the protected school could be signed by a franchise other than the one that owns that school’s rights. This is how LA acquired Steve Young from Denver, who had the rights to BYU players in the original T-Draft. Will this dramatically change the way the USFL acquires players? Unlikely, though adding more local talent, at least in some areas, always seems to benefit a club.
New Alignment & Schedule Approved for 2002
Friday, upon the conclusion of the league meetings, we got our biggest announcement, one that has been in the works for nearly 6 years. The league once again reviewed proposals for a shift from 4 to 6 divisions and from 16 to 14 weeks of regular season play. This time, unlike the debacle several years ago that led to a major conflict with the union and a pre-season strike, both the USFLPA and the USFL leadership worked on the proposal together. What came out of this joint effort is an agreement that adds 1 preseason game (at full pay) to the schedule, shifts the season to 14 weeks, but grandfathers in all current contracts so that there is no reduction of pay or prorated adjustments. New contracts will reflect the 16, rather than 17 game schedule, but with the salary cap rising as it has over the past decade, this is expected to be barely noticeable, particularly among high draft picks and NFL/USFL free agent signings.
The approved modification means that the 2002 USFL season will begin a week later and end a week earlier, with an extra preseason game added in March and the Summer Bowl now likely to alternate between the last week in July and the first week in August, depending on the calendar. The move also means a realignment of divisions, with both the Western and Eastern Conferences moving from 2 divisions each with 6 clubs to three divisions, each with 4 clubs. If the league sticks to the realignment proposed back in the late 1990’s, which we anticipate, the new alignment would look like as shown below.
The new alignment would mean a conference shift for several clubs, including Memphis and Birmingham moving to a new Southern division in the Western Conference (along with St. Louis and New Orleans) while Chicago and Michigan would join with Pittsburgh and Ohio to form a new Central division in the Eastern Conference. The league would retain its 14 club playoff format with 7 playoff teams per conference. We would see a total of 6 division winners and 8 Wild Card clubs, up from only 4 division winners. We would still have only 1 bye per conference as the league currently offers to the best record in each conference.
That the league continues to push this shift and “downsize” of the regular season is a clear sign that ownership is exploring the relationship with the NFL, one strained already this offseason with the Keyshawn Johnson signing, and is hoping to make significant adjustments to the NFL-USFL transfer system. That the union signed on to this new version of the schedule adjustment goes a long way to avoiding any of the messiness we saw in the past. TV contracts, thanks to the expansion with both Fox and NBC, will largely remain unchanged, though there will be a marginal reduction in broadcasting fees as each network will see a reduction in games to produce. But, for fans, do not expect to see season ticket prices reduced even with what amounts to one less home game per season pass. That is very unlikely to occur, particularly as most franchises in the league (with some noteworthy exceptions) are already at their season ticket targets each year with many well exceeding the target goals.
As if the news out of the league office was not enough this year, we got a huge story out of Michigan, where the Panthers’ star halfback Natrone Means was involved in a car accident that could cost him more than just higher insurance rates. The crash took place two weeks ago in the early hours of the morning in the somewhat upscale suburban enclave of Grosse Pointe. Based on police reports it was estimated that Means’s vehicle was racing at a speed between 85 and 100 when it lost control, first hitting a light pole before spinning into another vehicle. Means was injured, with reports of both knee and hip injuries in addition to an array of cuts and bruises. Fortunately the driver of the second car suffered only minor injuries. To make matters worse, Means reportedly tested positive for drugs in his system after being taken to a local hospital. So, in addition to the medical fallout from this incident, there are potential legal concerns as well.
While the Panthers have made the usual statements to the media about respecting the legal process, it is expected that should charges be brought against Means, the league would require that the Michigan back serve a suspension above and beyond any recovery time needed for his injuries. While full details on the extent of his injuries is unknown, speculation places it at midseason at best, and if a suspension is added to the lost time due to injury, we could easily see the Panther lead back out for the full season. If his legal woes are fully realized, the results could be even worse for the Panthers as the accident could lead to significant jail time.
Tampa Bay dealt with the elephant in the room, the departure of QB Troy Aikman as best they could. They brought in another seasoned veteran, though one who has had difficulty finishing a season. Tampa paid a hefty price but they got a QB that Coach Seifert can use in his complex offense. The Bandits send DE Kabeer Gabaja-Bialmila and a 2nd round pick in this year’s draft to Baltimore for former Blitz starter Trent Green. Green, very much a stand tall in the pocket style player similar to Aikman, has had issues with injuries in recent seasons but brings a good football mind and a decent arm to Tampa Bay, allowing Seifert to pursue the same style of play that he had developed with Aikman at the helm.
Beyond the league meetings and the chaos of the Natrone Means story this past week, the primary story of the offseason, as it often is, comes down to the free agent market. We saw a lot of talent sign quickly back in September, followed by the usual late fall lull, but in recent weeks we have seen more signings. As the NFL-USFL transfer window has not yet reopened, these have all been USFL signings. Looking over the moves made in the past few weeks, we would rate these as the moves most likely to impact the 2001 season:
Michigan is in the news quite a bit, as they now find themselves having to spend to acquire a fallback plan at halfback, limiting their funds for other positions. The Panthers get their backup plan in the backfield, signing former Oakland Invader Siran Stacy, but this means they cannot spend top dollar to retain another player from their 2000 roster.
Michigan’s top pass rusher, Renaldo Turnbull, departs for a 3-year deal in Birmingham. Turbull will be paired with Mike Rucker in Birmingham’s version of Houston’s infamous 1-2 punch at DE.
Birmingham continues to shuffle the defense, losing a key player and adding new blood in the LB corps. Popular former Crimson Tide LB Cornelius Bennett signed with the LA Express in November, and just this past week Birmingham snagged LB Joe Mott from division rival Memphis. The two are very different players, but both are fierce competitors and natural leaders on the defense.
Orlando also added some linebacker help, snagging Robert Hinckley away from New Orleans.
Memphis built on its secondary by signing former Denver free safety Joe King.
Los Angeles, in addition to signing LB Cornelius Bennett, added a playmaker at the corner position, snagging Aeneas Williams away from division rival Arizona.
On the offensive side of the ball we saw some movement as well, with former LA and Ohio halfback Darrell Thompson signing on in Portland, while Jacksonville tried to add more weapons for Chris Chandler by signing former Philadelphia Star TE Eric Green.
New Orleans also added a Tight End with good ball skills, signing Steve Johnson away from the Bulls.
Texas added depth at the HB position, inking Erric Pegram on a 3 year deal while also resigning young breakout back Autrey Detson to a 2-year extension.
Atlanta also signed a back to sit behind Tiki Barber, signing Houston’s former scat-back Mario Greer.
Atlanta also takes care of a position of obvious need, center, by signing the best available USFL free agent at the position, former Jacksonville Bull Bubba Miller. Miller will come into Atlanta as the default starter at the position.
Houston, a club which had looked to revamp their entire offense, added a wideout after losing Brett Perriman, signing Tamarick Vanover away from Denver. They also got some defensive help in the form of New Orleans LB Gerald Dixon
Chicago signed Browning Nagle to back up Jeff George at QB.
Still unsigned we have some very solid talent, with Tampa’s Darrien Gordon still the top name on the market. Others who could be late signees include many players at or over 33 years of age. Among those still on the market we find former Breaker DE Jerry Reese, St. Louis DT Jerry Ball, Seattle guard Jesse Sapolo, Houston LB Pat Swilling, Pittsburgh CB Quintin Jones, and Washington LB Winston Moss. There is also some young talent left unsigned, headed by 24-year old FS Jerome Woods, 25-year old DT James Manley (Denver), tackle Jermaine Mayberry of Texas, and 28-year old SS Je’Rod Cherry from the Machine.
While there are still some talented players available in the Free Agent Pool, and likely some talent will migrate between the NFL and USFL over the next month, all eyes are now on the USFL Draft. It is a draft headlined by Virginia Tech QB Michael Vick, but with several other high ceiling players potentially available to USFL clubs, assuming they can outbid or outwoo the NFL to get them. As we look at the draft ahead, we will take a look at each USFL club, their biggest needs, and the player we think would be the best fit for them, assuming they can sign them. We will follow the order of the first round in our review of all 24 clubs.
1. PORTLAND THUNDER
The Thunder have needs across the roster, but while many would love for them to take a shot at Vick we simply do not see that being a priority for a club that has a young, athletic QB in Akili Smith. Defense is always an issue for Portland, so our pick for them will be an impact defender. OUR PICK: Defensive End Andre Carter from Cal would be a solid building block for a defense that needs more speed and ferocity.
2. PITTSBURGH MAULERS
The Maulers could take a shot at Vick, but they got some decent games from Charlie Batch so we are also going to say that they too pass on the high risk/high reward option here. The Maulers could also go defense, or they could try to find a weapon opposite Andre Rison for Batch to throw to. OUR PICK: WR David Terrell from Michigan would be a welcome contrast to Rison and a good option for the Maulers.
3. NEW JERSEY GENERALS
The signing of Troy Aikman clearly takes the Generals out of the Vick market, or does it? We could see Coach Parcells try to make a splash with Vick, but have him sit behind Aikman for a year or two. But, does New Jersey brass really want to pay those two big salaries and have only one of them on the field? We don’t think so. We think Parcells goes for a big defensive playmaker. OUR PICK: Georgia LB Kendrell Bell is a perfect fit for a Parcells defense, fast, aggressive, fearless. He could be a key piece in a more dynamic General LB corps.
4. HOUSTON GAMBLERS
Houston is the first truly legitimate landing spot for Vick. Matt Hasselbeck got a contract extension, but neither his contract nor his performance last year scream “Franchise Guy”. He very well could find himself starting the season only to give way to a rookie QB.
OUR PICK: Michael Vick, QB, Va Tech. Now, try to sign him if the Falcons take him #1 in the NFL Draft. No easy task.
5. OAKLAND INVADERS
Oakland has not been happy with Ryan Leaf’s lack of development but they certainly are not going to give up on him yet. He needs protection, so we see Oakland going O-line here. The best option in the first round is our pick. OUR PICK: Guard Leonard Davis of Texas could help defend Leaf while also opening holes for their somewhat lackluster run game.
6. ATLANTA FIRE
If Houston passes on Vick, then Atlanta will almost certainly take a shot at him. But let’s assume he is off the board with the Gamblers. What is plan B for the Fire? Last season the defense made some great strides, but they can do even more if they can shore up the middle of the line and prevent the opposition from using the ground game to keep the pass rush honest. OUR PICK: DT Gerald Warren of Florida is the kind of run stuffing DT the Fire have always needed.
7. TEXAS OUTLAWS
The Outlaws could go quite a few ways. The O-line needs more muscle, but the defense also needs more speed. We like the Outlaws to go D first. OUR PICK: LB Dan Morgan from Miami (FL) would be a great building block in a somewhat depleted Outlaw linebacking corps.
8. TAMPA BAY BANDITS
Losing Aikman was huge for Tampa Bay, but the acquisition of Trent Green means they do not have to reach to try to find a QB in this year’s draft. They may go for one mid-draft, but are not likely to seek the other highly regarded QB, Purdue’s Drew Brees. Their bigger needs are now on defense as they not only have to replace Gabaja-Bialmila, but also have holes across all levels of the D. OUR PICK: Start with the essential DE position by drafting Justin Smith out of Mizzou.
9. CHICAGO MACHINE
The Machine would love nothing more than to add a speedy LB on the outside of last year’s #1 pick, Brian Urlacher. There are several potential candidates but we have heard rumors that one in particular has caught the eyes of the front office. OUR PICK: OLB Tommy Polley of Florida State would be a deadly team-up with Urlacher.
10. MICHIGAN PANTHERS
While most would likely say that QB is not the top priority for a Michigan club that had major defensive issues last year, little deep ball ability in the passing game, and at least 1-2 more years from Flutie in front of them, the rumors that the Panthers are going hard after Drew Brees cannot be ignored. OUR PICK: As much as we think Michigan should pick either WR Koren Robinson (NC State) or HB LaDainian Tomlinson (TCU), we all know they are looking at Brees as their top target.
11. JACKSONVILLE BULLS
The Bulls are another team that needs to start thinking about the QB position. Chris Chandler is no spring chicken, but we see them as looking for a potential project QB in the mid-rounds, a Sage Rosenfels or Chris Weinke type of player. In the first round, they could go O-line or they could go for defense. OUR PICK: Going with the best player on the board in one of their key areas of need, we pick DT Richard Seymour of the Georgia Bulldogs as a great match of talent, home region appeal, and need in North Florida.
12. BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS
The Stallions have got to do a better job of protecting Brett Favre. It is not good that almost every week we see him sacked 5, 6, or 9 times. That is too much by far. So, tackle or guard is the obvious pick here. OUR PICK: Florida LT Kenyatta Walker makes a lot of sense for the Stallions.
13. LOS ANGELES EXPRESS
After a Cinderella run to the top of the Western Conference in 1999, the Express crashed back to reality, barely making the playoffs this past season. They need more pressure on defense, and that starts with a better DE lineup. OUR PICK: FSU edge rusher Jamal Reynolds seems the best option for LA.
14. WASHINGTON FEDERALS
We have entered the realm of the fringe playoff teams, so the needs are not quite as obvious anymore. They added Tim Lester from Arizona to pair with Rueben Droughns in the backfield, so while a young back may be tempting, we don’t think it is a 1st round need. Better to look at the defense or perhaps to add a solid TE. OUR PICK: There are two clear 1st round talents at tight end in this year’s draft, so it is between Todd Heap of ASU and Alge Crumpler of UNC. We think Heap makes sense in DC.
15. ORLANDO RENEGADES
Another interesting position here. With Moe Williams gone and Terry Kirby not getting any younger, this is a spot were we could see Coach O’Leary take a home run swing and go for SDSU halfback Ladainian Tomlinson. Or he could go for the bunt and get a solid defender who is more likely to sign. OUR PICK: Let’s go big, Tomlinson.
16. SEATTLE DRAGONS
Seattle had a very good season on both sides of the ball, but they still need some intimidation factor on defense. We think the secondary is still the weak link. The best player available is SS Adam Archuleta of ASU, but they could also go corner. OUR PICK: We like the option of Archuleta here, even if SS is not the most immediate need area for Seattle.
17. ARIZONA WRANGLERS
The Wranglers lost Rocket Ismail to the NFL, so they need a breakneck speed receiver to complement their otherwise solid, but not explosive group. OUR PICK: Miami’s Santana Moss is perhaps the best pure speed guy in the draft.
18. OHIO GLORY
The offense looks solid for the Glory, especially if they can keep feeding the ball to Eddie George. The defense needs to make sure the opposition cannot match the ground game that Ohio has. That means defensive tackle. OUR PICK: Not the top DT in the draft, but Georgia’s Marcus Stroud is a space-filler, which may be the top quality the Glory need.
19. BALTIMORE BLITZ
The Blitz have moved from Green to Garcia, but we are not sure that they feel confident long term that he is their guy. OUR PICK: 1st round may be a bit early, but we like Georgia QB Quincy Carter as a younger, faster version of Garcia.
20. NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS
The Breakers lost a few key pieces from their top-rated defense this offseason. They will likely emphasize the defense early in the draft, which could mean secondary or LB. OUR PICK: We think they go for a run-stuffing LB, and the best option at this point in the draft is Arkansas’ Quinton Caver.
21. MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS
Memphis has a lot of talent across the roster, and as a division winner there are not too many holes, so they could go Best Player Available. If they do that, it comes down to who they rate as the best guy left on the board. OUR PICK: Looking at our board the best player may just be WR Koren Robinson of NC State.
22. ST. LOUIS KNIGHTS
The defense in St. Louis is still one of the league’s best, and the run game with Ahman Green is strong, so we look to the passing game. If Robinson is here, he could go to the Knights, but we had him going to Memphis, so the next best option is our pick. OUR PICK: Clemson wideout Rod Gardner.
23. PHILADELPHIA STARS
Another club that has to be worried about the longevity of their starting QB. Bobby Hebert is one of the oldest players in the league, so QB should be a priority, but choosing 23rd does not leave them with a true franchise option, so we think they wait. OUR PICK: Guard Steve Hutchinson from Michigan could help keep Hebert upright for another year.
24. DENVER GOLD
Denver won its first title, but as is typical, that meant the piranhas came to pick at their roster during free agency. Lots of pieces to replace or upgrade, so lots of options here. We think the Gold stick to improving the defense that is key to their success. OUR PICK: CB Nate Clements of Ohio State is strong in zone coverage, which is Denver’s preference, so a good match here.
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