January 17, 2000
A lot has happened since we last reported on the USFL. We all survived Y2K to see a new millennium (don’t start on the 2000 vs. 2001 debate, we don’t care.) and while everyone was waiting for our computers to explode, across the USFL general managers and coaches were trying to put rosters together for the upcoming season and prepping for this week’s USFL Collegiate Draft. There have been some surprises along the way, and some teams look quite a bit different than they did just as recently as October. So, let’s review the trades, free agency acquisitions, and the moves made in just the last 2 weeks as the NFL-USFL transfer window opened back up. We will then take a look at the top prospects in this year’s draft and which USFL clubs might be good fits.
As usual we saw a few trades as teams assessed their roster gaps leading up to the draft, but what was a bit surprising is that very few draft picks were swapped this past month. What we saw were basically player for player swaps as teams tried to fill a key gap in their rosters by means other than placing their faith in a rookie. Of the 10+ trades just in the last 14 days, these three stand out as potentially impactful ones.
Memphis, who we all assumed would deal with the retirement of Reggie White by drafting a top edge rusher in the draft, was apparently impatient and opted to make a pretty sizable deal to bring in a USFL DE with a bit more experience but still a lot of upside. They sent two players, backup QB Rob Johnson and DT Montae Reager to the St. Louis Knights to acquire Dameaion Jeffries, the 26-year old 4th year edge rusher. Jeffries has shown potential when he has been able to avoid injuries. He had 14 sacks in 1998 and 11 this past year. Built more along the lines of a Santana Dotson than a Reggie White, Jeffries is a speed rusher that could have issues unless Memphis can find ways to break off the double teams that White faced. The move does allow Memphis to look at other priorities at the top of the draft, though we suspect they will still draft a DE somewhere in the mid rounds. For St. Louis, getting Johnson to replace Jim Miller behind their starter makes sense, and so does acquiring a solid DT to rotate in with two older veterans, 13-year vet Jerry Ball and 10-year vet John Jurkovic.
Houston makes another move, acquiring LB Sam Cowart from the Arizona Wranglers for Free Safety David Arnold. Arnold was trapped behind Tyrone Drakeford in the lineup and the Gamblers definitely needed to add some athleticism in the LB corps. For Arizona, Arnold will be a likely starter after the loss of Roger Harper to free agency. Not a blockbuster trade by any stretch, but one likely to help both clubs.
Seattle and Oakland pulled off one of the more surprising trades of the offseason in that both clubs were willing to part with established starters at one position to acquire another in a position of lesser depth. The Dragons needed help in the secondary, Oakland on the D-line, so both were willing to look at two of their deeper positions and trade away their starter, a rarity in any league. For Oakland, that starter was Strong Safety John Lynch, for Seattle it was defensive tackle Tim Johnson. Lynch has been a stalwart of the Invader secondary since coming into the league in 1993. He now becomes an immediate leader for the Dragon defense while Oakland will likely promote Torian Gray up to the starting spot. Johnson has been part of Seattle’s defensive line rotation since he entered the league in 1987. He is a bit of a risk as an older player, but Oakland needs leadership and experience as they build a new defense for Coach Capers. Johnson is a strong run-stuffer and space occupier, and Oakland absolutely needs to be able to shut down the run after a season as one of the worst in that department.
Before looking at the recently re-opened NFL-USFL transfer window, we should take a look at the free agency signings within the USFL over the past couple of months. We start with the 10 most interesting signings and then a quick look at who is still available as the Draft and Training Camp approach.
10— LA signed CB Vince Buck away from Ohio, a solid move after losing both Aeneas Williams (ARZ) and Bobby Taylor (PIT) themselves.
9—Oakland added more line help in the form of Jon Carter, leaving a hole in Denver opposite Leslie O’Neill.
8—Tampa Bay also added a quality edge rusher, outbidding LA to acquire their speed rusher, Santana Dotson.
7—Philadelphia poaches a DT from a division rival, signing former Federal Chris Zorich.
6—Atlanta adds depth and a good pass catcher behind Tiki Barber by signing scatback Glyn Milburn away from the Federals.
5—Jacksonville gets their MLB, pulling Mike Vrabel away from the Portland Thunder to replace the departed Tedi Bruschi (now in Texas)
4—Three backup QB’s go off the board as Houston signs Tony Sacca, Tampa brings in Chuck Clements, and Denver lands Bill Musgrave from the Thunder.
3—Chicago tries to protect Jeff George by signing LT Jeff Wright away from division rival Michigan.
2—The WR market starts to shrink as Odessa Turner leaves Denver for Baltimore, Patrick Rowe departs St. Louis for the Bulls, and Tyree Davis moves from Pittsburgh to Arizona.
1—Philadelphia gets their replacement for Charlie Garner, signing former Stallion Stephen Davis, as predicted. Davis is a very different back from Garner, so expect a shift towards a power run game from Coach Mora.
A lot of movement, but with nearly 2 months until the USFL season starts, there are still many players left waiting to be signed, here is our list of the best still on the board in key positions.
WR: The WR pool is not great, but Orlando’s Reggie Rembert and veteran Ricky Proehl of Chicago are still out there if someone wants a slot guy.
CB: This is a deeper pool. Within that pool we like Aaron Glenn (LA) and Harry Colon (PIT) to find work soon.
DT: William Perry is clearly nearing the end of his career, but if you want a space-occupying DT, he is available.
FS/SS: Safety is a strong position in the draft this year, which might explain why no Free Safeties have been signed yet. Looking at the pool you have Charles Mincy, Roy Harper, Mike Dumas, and stunningly, last year’s interception leader, Izell Reese, who is still trying to get a deal done to return to the Knights. Cory Chavous of Seattle is really the only potential starter among Strong Safeties in the pool, and we expect that as we get closer to draft day, someone will snap him up.
HB: Among halfbacks, the best left on the table is clearly former Bull Natrone Means. He is demanding quite a lot, but with several clubs needing a new bell cow back, he may just get it from someone. Others available include Atlanta’s Blair Thomas, Oakland’s Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Washington’s Dino Philyaw. Not exactly a deep pool.
LB: Bobby Hamilton, Cedric Figaro and Bobby Houston remain for teams looking for help at the LB position. We have to admit that Houston’s lack of offers remains something of a mystery to us.
TE: Rumors had Pittsburgh TE Keith McKeller headed to Baltimore, but it has not happened yet, and it really is between him and former Steeler, current General Mark Bruener if a team wants a veteran TE.
QB: Finally, if your team needs a QB upgrade, at starter or as a backup, they might want to look at raiding the NFL. The only player left at the position with any experience or upside would be Tampa Bay backup Mike Pawlowski.
NFL-USFL TRANSFER WINDOW
With that being the internal USFL roster of free agents, it is no wonder that the reopening of the NFL-USFL transfer window was met with a great deal of anticipation. It did not take long to see a flurry of moves as the window opened. Let’s start with the players brought into the USFL from the senior league.
Portland takes a swing on an NFL veteran in their attempt to deal with the unexpected retirement of HB Robert Drummond, signing Napoleon Kaufmann of the Raiders. Kaufmann has had some durabilty issues of late, but still has some moves and speed left. He may be more of a bridge back until Portland can sign or develop a young talent. We still think the Thunder could be in the running for a top rookie back like a Ron Dayne or Jamal Lewis.
Chicago does not go far to help fill their needs at WR, looking just across the halls of Soldier Field to find former Bear Chris Conway. Conway has had some issues with the Bears but is popular among fans, so this could be a good signing from a PR standpoint for the Machine, as well as a potential first-day starter.
Jacksonville adds center Bubba Miller to their line. Miller, a solid player for the Philadelphia Eagles, will get a chance to be the full time starter in Jacksonville, where he only needs to beat out 3rd year player Chris Ramirez for the job.
Philly was in the market for a new kicker after letting Chip Lohmiller walk (he walked over to the NFL Redskins). They dip into the NFL pool and pull out former Bear and Raider Jeff Jaeger to take over the kicking duties.
Finally, what may be one of the weirdest interleague moments yet, as the two clubs, one from each league, basically created an interleague trade. Now, an official trade is not possible, the agreement between the two leagues simply does not allow for direct compensation back and forth across league lines, but what happened between the Breakers and the NFL Buccaneers is about as close as that can come. The Breakers, under new head coach Mike Nolan, were reassessing the QB position. Jamie Martin, who had been the full time starter under Mike Ditka since 1996, has a 4 season rating of 87.6, not horrible, but not impressive either. It appears that Coach Nolan thinks the Breakers can do better, and so one week ago the Breakers cut Martin, making him available, and the Bucs immediately snapped him up. Nothing weird there, Tampa Bay could use a veteran backup behind 2nd year QB Duante Culpepper. So, with Martin in the fold, New Orleans released embattled veteran Trent Dilfer. Within 6 hours, Dilfer was a member of the Breakers and the presumptive starter, though Coach Nolan has stated that it will be an open competition with Gus Frerotte and Bobby Hoying.
Was this a case of collusion between two teams in different leagues or just quick thinking by both clubs’ managers? Probably somewhere in between. We suspect that both GMs had a very good idea what the other was thinking. It was well known that Dilfer was on the outs in Tampa Bay after being replaced by Culpepper midseason, and all it would take is a single phonecall for the Breakers to clue Tampa Bay in on the release date for Martin, a move the Bucs could reciprocate by releasing Dilfer on a scheduled date. It does not hurt that both QBs also have the same agent. So, is it illegal? Does not appear so, since both players went through the standard protocols for being released and joining the transfer window. Is it a new type of transaction that could alter how the two leagues work with each other? Possibly. Both leagues tend to be very big on imitation of what works, so this may not be the last we have seen of “virtual” trading.
Martin to the Bucs was not the only USFL to NFL move in the transfer window this past two weeks. One of the reasons the USFL talent pool is a bit lighter today is because of some of the departures these past 2 weeks.
The Stallions, after losing FS Blaine Bishop to the NFL also saw one of their best CBs depart, with Chris Dishman headed to the Minnesota Vikings. Looks like B’ham is going to have to start drafting DBs.
LA’s signing of Frank Wycheck was pretty much a signal to TE Tony McGee that they would not be meeting his terms to resign. So, McGee, who had 33 receptions, including 6 TDs last year, will now be a Cincinnati Bengal.
New Jersey will likely use a late round pick on a kicker after the New England Patriots signed Adam Vinatieri out from under them. Not exactly payback for Babe Ruth leaving Boston for NY, just another thorny moment between the two cities.
LB John Roper will be leaving Seattle to play for Dallas next Fall. The cagey veteran signed a 2 year deal with the NFL Cowboys, leaving Seattle looking for an alternative.
And finally, a big blow for a playoff team as Michigan fails to resign HB Tyrone Wheatley. The one-cut back who has led the Panthers’ rush attack since coming into the league in 1995 is off to the New York Giants. There had been friction between Wheatley and team management over the past 2 years, and apparently the low-ball bid from the Panthers when free agency first opened was enough to anger the 1,000-yard back and send him packing for the NFL. The departure leaves Michigan with Brock Olivo and Winslow Oliver in the backfield. Expect the Panthers to take a long look at Natrone Means, but also to decide if an early pick on a halfback in the draft makes sense for them.
With all this movement, there remain a lot of holes on a lot of teams across the USFL, and as dicey as trying to outbid the NFL can be when it comes to top rookies, the draft is where the USFL has made most of its thunder, aside from the occasional big name signing of late career NFL players like Montana or Marcus Allen and players with concerns like Jeff George or Trent Dilfer. So, as we look at the top 15 players available in this year’s Collegiate Draft Pool for both leagues, it is not hard to imagine many of these players opting for the spring league, which does tend to average just under 50% signing success of players taken in the first 3 rounds of both the USFL and NFL draft. So, while not every player on this list will be headed to the USFL, a good number should, which makes the question one of where they would fit in best. Here is our look at the top 15 prospects and which USFL team makes the most sense for them.
DE Courtney Brown (Penn State): Who does not need a disruptive force on the edge? Pretty much every USFL squad would love to have a player like Brown terrorizing opposing QBs. Memphis was thought to be an early option here, but with their trade for Dameaion Jeffries, that seems less likely. If we had to pick a landing spot for Brown, our best guess would be in Jacksonville, which recorded a league worst 23 sacks for the entire 1999 season.
OT Chris Samuels (Alabama): Samuels should step in and be a starting LT as a rookie. His experience at a top end program like Alabama prepared him well for the rigors of pro football’s most technical position. But where should he go if he wants to try out spring ball? Our pick would be Oakland. They have a nice early draft position and a young QB who needs to feel safe in the pocket to be successful.
HB Ron Dayne (Wisconsin): The big bruising back was this year’s Heisman Winner. He is best suited for a power run game, preferably one that will give him the ball 25 times a game. Look no further than the Michigan Panthers. They just lost Wheatley to the NFL, and they have a solid line in front of him. Dayne would do well to end up in Pontiac, but this will only happen if the Panther front office thinks him a better option than free agent Natrone Means, a very similar back to Dayne.
LB LaVar Arrington (Penn State): Arrington is a difference maker, and what defense does not want that. There are several who not only want that but need it. We are looking at you Orlando, and you, Chicago, and we have not forgotten Birmingham in this group (though they also need secondary help, so they may prioritize that over the LB position.). Our bet is on the Renegades here, assuming Arrington drops to them in the second half of the first round.
HB Jamal Lewis (Tennessee): If Ron Dayne is not the best back in the draft, then certainly Jamal Lewis is. He is very similar in style, big, pounding interior runs, but has more breakaway speed. We would have pegged him for Philadelphia for certain, but they signed Stephen Davis and cannot afford to shuffle two high cost backs in their offense. So, assuming Michigan goes with either Dayne or Means, who is left to take a look at Lewis? How about the Stallions? They lost Stephen Davis, and while they might opt for a speedier back like a Thomas Jones, we could easily picture Lewis as a Stallion. Again, they have some big holes to fill on defense, so if they go there first, we could see Lewis end up somewhere else, perhaps Arizona, who are definitely not happy with their run game.
WR Peter Warrick (Florida State): A speedy receiver with good moves who should start out in the slot, we like him headed to Chicago, where Ricky Proehl wore out his welcome. Chicago just signed Chris Conway to play outside, but a rookie like Warrick could be a huge boost to the passing game for Jeff George and company.
HB Thomas Jones (Virginia): Jones has potential to put up big numbers with the right club. He can catch the ball, runs well both inside and outside, and has the ability to run away from most linebackers. Not a prototypical big back like the other two top prospects, Jones fits better into a more wide open offense, like Birmingham or Tampa Bay, but our favorite fit would be in Washington, where the departure of Glyn Milburn leaves room for a back to spell Barry Word this year and step in full time very soon.
WR Plaxico Burress (Michigan State): If Warrick is the perfect fit for a club looking for a slot receiver, Burress is what is needed if you need height, a guy who will go up and get those 50/50 balls in the endzone. Lots of clubs would love to add a player of his caliber to their receiving corps, and we don’t think he will drop too far in the first round. Look at Atlanta (#1), Oakland (#2), Philly (#4) or Chicago (#5) to go for the big outside threat.
DT Corey Simon (Florida State): Interior D-line tends not to be a high value pick, so we could see Simon, who is clearly the best at the position in this year’s draft, slide a bit, possibly out of the top 10 or 12. The teams that could most use a big interior presence are a bit later in the draft, Denver or Texas in the draft’s second half. Perhaps one of them will move up. We could see Denver trying to get past Texas to get this pick, but where and with whom they would swap picks is hard to say.
LB Brian Urlacher (New Mexico): Middle Linebacker can be the most important player on a defense, and when you look at Urlacher, who played both safety and LB at UNM, there is a lot to like in his game. This is a position that could rise up the boards if demand is there, and there are certainly some bad defensive teams at the front of the draft. We could see Atlanta possibly go here (though #1 seems a bit too high), or Chicago at #5, or New Jersey at #7, and if somehow he falls a bit, no way is he making it past Orlando at #15.
DE Shaun Ellis (Tennessee): A bit more of a speed guy than Brown, Shaun Ellis would be great opposite a bigger, run & pass focused DE. And while it is easy to look at clubs like Jacksonville or Seattle, who need DE help right away, there are few clubs that would not take a shot at Ellis if he is available. The Wild Card for us is Coach Schottenhemer in New Jersey. He says he wants to get Phil Hansen more help, but picking a DE in the first round means adding to a position group that is solid rather than filling a more pressing need.
DE John Abraham (South Carolina): Our third DE in the top 15, which goes to show how valued the position is (and how few “hands” players there are at the top of the draft board this year.) Abraham would be a great candidate for New Jersey if Ellis is gone, but might be a better fit in a 3-4 defense. Seattle, Orlando or Pittsburgh come to mind as good potential landing spots.
QB Chad Pennington (Marshall): Do we really see Chad Pennington as one of the 15 best players in the draft? No. Is he likely to be chosen early just because QB is a need position across the league? Yup. That is why he is here. In a draft that does not have a clear future All-Pro at the position, and where the depth seems to drop quickly, Pennington is clearly ahead of others like Louisville’s Chris Redman or Hofstra’s Giovanni Carmazzi. If he goes in the top 15, the most likely landing spots are Atlanta (dropping down in a trade, no way they pick him #1), Chicago (possibly also if they opt to drop down), or New Jersey, who can afford a flier with 2 back to back picks in the round (#6 and #7 thanks to a trade with Portland.)
LB Julian Peterson (Michigan State): A great run-stuffing LB, Peterson would be a great find for a club that wants to shut down the run and force teams to be one dimensional. That philosophy aligns well with Philadelphia’s Jim Mora, Arizona’s Art Shell, or Ohio’s Al Luginbill. Of those three, we think Philly or Ohio is a more likely option. Arizona has a solid LB corps and has needs elsewhere.
CB Ahmed Plummer (Ohio State): Our last Top 15 prospect is the only DB in the group. It is a safety-heavy draft, but none really stand out as top 15 picks, more likely we will see a strong run on safeties in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Plummer, as the best pure coverage CB, and with a solid background covering Big 10 receivers like Plaxico Burress, could help out a lot of teams. Likely to go between picks 8-16, some options that make sense are New Orleans (#8), Ohio (#12), Washington (#14), and maybe, particularly if they can trade up to lock in the pick, St. Louis (currently at #19).
So there you have it, our look at the top of the draft. A reminder that while USFL clubs often use the first 2 rounds to pick elite players, these are certainly not guaranteed to sign and some clubs will pick a slightly lower-graded player if that player has expressed openness and enthusiasm during pre-draft interviews. We get that they are all trained to do so, but a good GM can tell the difference between real interest and feigned interest. So, we shall see who ends up where and by the time we report back from camp in February, we will know just who is signed, sealed, and delivered for USFL play in 2000.