February 27, 2000
While most of the country remains in the throes of winter, things are heating up in the USFL as the season is only 3 weeks away. It has been an eventful offseason and prospects for your favorite club may have shifted significantly. We have 5 new head coaches across the league, countless player movements, signings, trades, and rookies to evaluate, and, as always, a spirit of excitement and optimism has taken over USFL fans from coast to coast.
We begin our report on the offseason and our season preview with a look at the Eastern Conference, home to the past 3 league champions (Washington, Tampa Bay, and the defending champion Memphis Showboats). Is this going to be a rebound year for the Bandits? A repeat for the Showboats? A resurgence for the Birmingham Stallions? And who will come out of the Atlantic? Can Baltimore repeat despite some big losses in the offseason? Is Pittsburgh ready to step up? Can Philly return to glory with a new Jim Mora at the helm? Lots of big questions, but before we look at each team, lets take a look at the offseason moves that have had the biggest impact across the conference over the past 6 weeks since our last report.
While we know everyone is excited to talk about the 2000 rookie class or to hype up their favorite club, we should start with some basic housekeeping, a quick review of late roster moves that could impact the league this year. We had a couple of unusual events this January, including a spate of retirements after camp had begun and a flurry of last second signings during late free agency. We also saw a couple more trades that will certainly impact the season. We begin with the post-draft trades.
Michigan sends DT Sam Adams to Jacksonville to acquire HB Natrone Means. We saw the writing on the wall on this one. Means wanted out of Jacksonville and the Bulls were not going to get much for him, but in Adams they get veteran leadership and a pretty big body in the middle of the D-line. Not a bad bargain for them to unload a player who clearly wanted another chance to prove he is a legit starter in the league, something he will certainly get in Michigan.
In Memphis, the defending champions seem willing to trade defense for offensive line help, sending LB Al Wilson to Washington for guard Mike Hutson. We tend to think the Federals, who are trying to rebuild a killer D, came out a bit on top in this one.
Denver sends FS Myron Guyton to Orlando for WR Tamarick Vanover, a solid slot receiver option. So, Orlando in addition to adding O-line depth, now tries to improve their secondary while Denver may be shifting to more of a short passing game after the departure of Odessa Turner.
Finally, because we know you love O-line news, Seattle sent C Matt Birk to St. Louis in order to get DT Mike Lodish as the Dragons try to address an area of their club that definitely needed work. Birk will compete for the starting job in St. Louis and can also play swing at guard or right tackle if needed.
We mentioned some in-camp retirements, something we rarely see, but also some Free Agent signings, which is typical, particularly after rookie draftees opt for the fall league instead of the USFL. Beginning with the retirements, we see two that have not really been dealt with by their clubs as of yet. Oakland lost out on Jon Carter, who retired only 1 month after signing with the club. In Baltimore, wideout Odessa Turner, who has had some injury concerns in recent years, also decided to call it a career after two-a-days had begun. As of yet, no free agents have been signed to replace them. Emory Yates, the long-term Stallion tackle had signed with Ohio, but recent medical findings helped make the decision to retire for him, as his ongoing hip injury is now believed to be chronic and possibly degenerative, forcing his hand. Ohio is still in the market for a new tackle.
When LB Paul McGown told the Generals he would be retiring, they at least had some options, with several solid LBs left in free agency. They signed former Bandit Bobby Houston within 48 hours of the news.
The Gamblers went one step better, cutting QB Chuck Clements 3 days into camp once they had signed former St. Louis Knight QB Jim Miller. Miller is expected to compete immediately with Chuck Hartlieb and untested Matt Hasselbeck, though it is Hasselbeck who was named the Week 1 starter.
Other late free agent signings include veteran wideout Ricky Proehl in New Orleans, TE Mark Bruener by Arizona, LB Ricky Hamilton by Houston, tackle Mike Hayes by the Stallions, and QB Wally Richardson by Memphis. We might see a couple more go before the end of camp, as teams are still trying to find their ideal 45-man rosters, and as some younger players are placed in the practice squad.
As always, the drafting of a rookie by any USFL club is only half the battle. Within 2 weeks of the USFL draft we have the NFL Draft, and once a player has been selected by both leagues the real battle begins. The USFL has tried to emphasize the draft over raiding NFL rosters for talent, but even so, the average is about 55% or higher of players opting for the NFL over the spring league, despite overall salary equivalency often achieved between the two leagues. So, for every big signing, there is also very often a coveted player who got away. Let’s look at the 12 Eastern clubs and see who could make an impact in 2000 and the big fish that got away.
ATLANTA FIRE
High Impact Rookie(s): Atlanta had a lot of picks this year, and signed 9 players from their 12 selections, a very good rate of return. They now have both J.R. Redmond of Arizona State and Mike Anderson of Utah ready to back up Tiki Barber at the HB spot, and DT Darwin Walker will likely join the D-line rotation as well.
Others on the Roster: While OT Stockar McDougle may see some playing time, expect TE James Whelan and DE Chris Combs to alternate between active, inactive, and practice squad status. QB Mark Bulger from West Virginia has been retained as the #3 QB.
The One that Got Away: Atlanta did as expected and swung for the fences with their first pick, DE Courtney Brown of Penn State, but Brown opted to go with Cleveland of the NFL, initially leaving some concern in Atlanta about the pass rush, a concern that was profoundly altered by the signing of former Buffalo Bill superstar Bruce Smith. Smith may not be a spring chicken anymore, but he can still put up those sack numbers and put the fear of Bruce into opposing QBs.
BALTIMORE BLITZ
High Impact Rookie(s): With the retirement of Derrick Fenner, it was essential that Baltimore find a back to run its power rush style, and in Wisconsin’s Ron Dayne they believe they have. Dayne should be the Week 1 starter at the position. Expect Baltimore to use more 3-wide formations and leave Dayne as a pounder on the inside.
Others on the Roster: In addition to Dayne, Baltimore added depth to both lines with guard Kaulana Noa of Hawaii, tackle Blaine Saipaia of Colorado State, DT Brian Young of UTEP and DE Quinton Reese of Auburn.
The One that Got Away: The Blitz got the back they needed, but missed on their 2nd round pick, wideout Todd Pinkston of Southern Miss. This hurt even more when recently signed WR Odessa Turner opted to retire after 2 weeks of Blitz training camp, one of several veterans to bow out in camp across the league this year. That leaves the Blitz a little shaky at receiver with Rob Moore and Tim Dwight the presumptive starters. Rumors have a trade in the works, but as of today, the Blitz have one of the weaker receiving corps in the league.
BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS
High Impact Rookie(s): Another club looking for a back after Stephen Davis left in free agency. Birmingham got theirs from the second round, another local product, Alabama’s Shaun Alexander. He will be expected to get significant playing time, though we also think FB Mike Alstott and veteran Rodney Thomas, signed from Texas, will be the likely Week 1 starting combo.
Others on the Roster: We like the look of LB Barrett Green from WVU, and that is about it. WR Darrell Jackson is most likely a special teams contributor, and OT Brad Bedell is buried deep on the depth chart.
The One that Got Away: Wisconsin tackle Chris McIntosh opted to join the NFL Seahawks, so it looks like once again protecting Brett Favre will come down to a Richmond Webb, whose knees have been an issue in recent years.
JACKSONVILLE BULLS
High Impact Rookie(s): Jacksonville fans believe their club hit the jackpot with Penn State LB Lavar Arrington. Arrington is fast and decisive, and brings the hammer when he hits opposing backs. He will be a day 1 starter. Wideout Dez White, a 2nd round pick, is also looking solid for the Bulls, who needed to add talent after losing Brian Blades to the NFL.
Others on the Roster: Expect to see both Troy State’s Michael Moore and Mississippi State’s Wes Shivers get some PT at guard. Safety Paris Lennon of Richmond also made the final 53, while several others are now on the Bulls practice squad.
The One that Got Away: The Bulls other attempt at a rookie wideout, FSU’s Peter Warrick, did not materialize. Most around the league had a sense that he was leaning towards the NFL, and so did the Bulls, who did not select him until the 4th round, which all but guaranteed he would follow his first round selection by the Cincinnati Bengals.
MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS
High Impact Rookie(s): Memphis did not have a lot of holes on the starting roster, so we are not surprised that most of their signed rookies will likely be backups. Guards Andrew Kline (SDSU) and Cooper Carlisle (Florida) are likely to see the field from time to time, but most of the rooks will likely see spotty action at best.
Others on the Roster: TE Erron Kinney sits 3rd on the depth chart, while CB Lewis Sanders and LB Sekou Sanyika will likely see mostly special teams action.
The One that Got Away: No huge losses here. Memphis took a shot at FSU’s Corey Simon in the 1st round, but that did not pan out. They have a solid line so it would have been a luxury pick, a BPA situation to be sure at the end of the first round.
NEW JERSEY GENERALS
High Impact Rookie(s): Phil Hansen has to be happy that Tennessee’s Shaun Ellis will now be lining up across from him on the NJ defensive line. Ellis’s speed and power combo will absolutely make it harder for offenses to double team one of the league’s most dangerous power rushers. New Jersey also thinks they found a gem with their pick from Portland in the first round, West Virginia TE Anthony Becht. And they may have gotten a steal in the 7th round with Michigan State DT Robaire Smith, who has been very impressive in camp.
Others on the Roster: Kicker and 12th round pick Neil Rackers takes over after Adam Vinatieri left for the NFL, while wideout Ahmad Merritt may get some slot work and linemen Richard Mercier (Miami) and Leander Jordan (IUP) could rotate in as well. It looks like former Michigan QB Tom Brady may stick with the team as the 3rd QB behind Spence Fischer and Jeff Lewis. While there is a clear QB battle at the top, Brady should expect to hold a clipboard this season.
The One that Got Away: Really the only Generals pick that feels like a lost opportunity is 4th round selection T.J. Slaughter, the linebacker out of Southern Miss, but landing Lorenzo Styles from the Stallions as a free agent feels like it fills the gap just fine.
OHIO GLORY
High Impact Rookie(s): Ohio needed a good draft, but whiffed on their top 2 picks, so the best we can say is that they have a good-looking backup QB in Chris Redman of Louisville, and a potential contributor in CB Jason Webster from Texas A&M.
Others on the Roster: Guard Darnell Alford and WR Bryan Gilmore are likely to spend most of the season on the practice squad.
The One that Got Away: Two actually got away, first round pick Julian Peterson, the linebacker from Michigan State, and 2nd round pick Deon Grant both opted to play in the fall, big hits for a club that desperately needs to upgrade their defense.
ORLANDO RENEGADES
High Impact Rookie(s): LB Rob Morris may not start at MLB, but he should see some action this year. The more immediate impact may come from safety Tyrone Carter of Minnesota, who has looked solid in camp.
Others on the Roster: No big names, but some upside to players like DE John Engleberger, CB Ben Kelly, and LB Danny Clark.
The One that Got Away: Easy, 1st round pick Thomas Jones. Chosen as a possible successor to Terry Kirby, who is not getting any younger. The whiff on Jones may be part of the reason why Moe Williams was signed from Memphis in the first place. Having Williams allowed Orlando to take a shot on Jones, and they did.
PHILADELPHIA STARS
High Impact Rookie(s): The Stars wanted defensive help in the draft and we think they may have as many as 3 starters coming out of this year’s haul. 1st round pick Deltha O’Neal looks ready to start off as a nickel back but could soon be a starter outside as well. DT Kendrick Clancy from Ole Miss will get snaps at DT, and SS Antwan Harris, despite being a 9th round pick, has looked really good in camp.
Others on the Roster: Tackle Todd Wade (another Ole Miss Rebel) and TE Joe Dean Davenport will make the squad but are not expected to see the field much this year except on special teams.
The One that Got Away: Philly did pretty well. Yes, they would like to have had 2nd round pick Jerry Porter, the speedy wideout from West Virginia, on the roster, but after adding Bobby Engram from the NFL Bears, they feel they have a decent WR room to start the year, even without All-USFL receiver Cris Carter suiting up anymore.
PITTSBURGH MAULERS
High Impact Rookie(s): A very strong draft for the Maulers. They got themselves a kicker (Rian Lindell from WSU), a corner (Kareem Larrimore), a speedy wideout (Dennis Northcutt) and a solid DE in Darren Howard.
Others on the Roster: LB Nate Webster could also pan out after a solid career at Miami.
The One that Got Away: Signing Jake Reed away from the NFL helps Pittsburgh also deal with the sting of missing out on their top pick, wideout Travis Taylor from Florida. Doubling back to WR in the 2nd round for Northcutt also seems smart in retrospect.
TAMPA BAY BANDITS
High Impact Rookie(s): OT Marvel Smith, chosen in the first round, should be a great addition to a Bandits line that was getting a little long in the tooth. Expect him to start out at RT. The big surprise is the performance of 5th round pick Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila at DE. He has a legitimate shot to start the year as a starter, which few saw coming.
Others on the Roster: We like Travis Prentice, the back out of Miami of Ohio, as a relief player for Errict Rhett, a better fit than James Stewart was last year. LB Corey Moore from Va Tech could also see some snaps this season.
The One that Got Away: Willee Bartee, the rangy CB from OU could have made an impact in the secondary, but he opted to stay closer to home with the KC Chiefs.
WASHINGTON FEDERALS
High Impact Rookie(s): We like TE Bubba Franks, the Federals surprise 1st round pick, but he is likely to need a year before he is ready to be a full time starter. HB Reuben Droughns from Oregon will be the change of pace back for Barry Word this year, and WR Drew Haddad is a good late round addition at WR.
Others on the Roster: CB Jeff Harris (Georgia), and C Matt Johnson (BYU) may eventually get into the gameday roster but for now they are on the practice squad.
The One that Got Away: 2nd round pick Keith Bullock would have been a nice addition to the Federals LB Corps, but he opted to become a Houston Oiler instead.
TOP 3 BOTTOM 2
Before our team-by-team analysis, we want to offer an analysis of position groupings in the USFL. So we are going to identify which clubs we feel have the strongest, deepest, and most impactful groupings at different positions, while also providing the 2 clubs who we feel are weakest in each area, in a little section we call Top 3 Bottom 2. We start here with the offense and will conclude with defensive positions in our Western Conference Preview.
QUARTERBACK
#1 BIRMINGHAM: Brett Favre pretty much places Birmingham here all by himself. He is never hurt, so backup Danny Kannell only gets to see the field at the end of blowouts, but Kanell is a very capable backup, and Jay Barker looks very professional in a visor with a clipboard, so there is that too.
#2 TAMPA BAY: It was between the Bandits and Showboats for #2, and we decided to reward Tampa Bay for having a more viable backup. Shuler and Aikman are both great QBs, but if either gets hurt, would you rather bring in Tampa’s Kent Graham or Memphis’s Gino Torretta? Graham, right?
#3 PHILADELPHIA: Yes, we might be overvaluing Bobby Hebert at this point in his career, but we are also giving Philly credit for putting two very viable QBs behind him in the form of Will Furrer and Jake Delhomme. Any one of the three is capable of winning games. Hebert, while not his former self, is still capable of winning them against all odds, and that is still a hard skill to find.
#23 NEW ORLEANS: To say that we do not trust Trent Dilfer to be a savior in the Crescent City is an understatement. Having Bobby Hoying and Gus Frerotte behind him is also not a big confidence booster. Say the Breakers are down by 17 with a quarter to play, do you think any of these 3 are bringing them back? We didn’t think so.
#24 ATLANTA: Maybe Aaron Brooks is the second coming of Fran Tarkenton? Who knows? Pretty sure Atlanta does not know. Having Eric Zeier behind him and a rookie in Mark Bulger in 3rd means that Atlanta has very little available if Brooks flounders. Maybe we are wrong, but we think this combination is about as shaky as it gets in the USFL.
RUNNING BACK
#1 ORLANDO: Terry Kirby is not the best back in the league, but when you add in Moe Williams and Amos Zeroue at HB and then the devastating blocking of Chris Fuamata-Ma’afala at FB, you have the best RB group in the league. They can power run, outside run, catch the ball, block for the passing game. You won’t likely see Kirby lead the league in rushing, but you very well may see Orlando gain the most yards from scrimmage with these backs.
#2 CHICAGO: We really wanted to give an award to a team with 1 huge back, like Denver with Salaam or Pittsburgh with Davis, but it just does not make sense. When a club like Chicago can bring in Ricky Watters, Duce Staley or Mario Bates on any play, and then have Jonathon Linton backside blocking or leading the counter tre, it just has to go to a team with a bevvy of backs, and Chicago has that.
#3 LOS ANGELES: Another depth victory in the RB group. Combine Antowain Smith’s and Michael Pittman’s production and you will almost certainly outgain any 1 back in the league. That they can also bring in Maurice Smith to spell either back, and they can count on Shawn Bryson to open holes is just pure luxury for the Express, and a big reason they bolted to #1 in the Pacific last year.
#23 PHILADELPHIA: Hard to know what Philly has in Stephen Davis, the new acquisition from Birmingham. He never fully got a chance with the Stallions, but he needs to prove himself with the Stars. Pat Chaffey and Mark Montgomery are not going to steal the job from him, that is for sure. Reinaldo Deal feels like just a warm body at FB, so expect Philly to use a lot of 1-back formations.
#24 ARIZONA: We keep saying it, year in and year out Arizona tries to develop a run game and it never works. They always seem to end up with Tim Lester leading all backs with 500 yards. That is sad. Kantroy Barber did OK in Jacksonville and Olandis Gary can gain 2 on a 3rd and 1, but he can also gain 2 on a 3rd and 3, so not that helpful. Richie Anderson is a solid FB, but that is just not enough.
WIDE RECEIVER
#1 BIRMINGHAM: When Ernest Givens finally does decide to retire, this group may not even lose a beat. They have Lawrence Dawsey who is plan B only in that someone has to be B if Givens is A. Then you add in Marcus Robinson who broke out when Givens was injured last year, and that is not all. Tyree Davis and Darell Jackson can also fly, so the deep ball circus that Birmingham can put on is 3-rings of good.
#2 ARIZONA: With a bad run game, they better have good receivers and, yes, Arizona does. Carl Pickens and Rocket Ismail bring the speed, while Hines Ward is a professional route runner and not afraid to block either. Curtis Duncan and Nate Jacquet don’t see the field often, but can provide good depth for this group.
#3 HOUSTON: I don’t think we have seen the full potential of this group with Chuck Hartlieb at the helm, and we may not see it now that Houston has named Matt Hasselbeck the starter. You put these receivers on Memphis or even Baltimore and watch them fly. Antonio Freeman, Brett Perriman, Hart Lee Dykes, Derrick Mason and Willie Jackson provide depth and danger. Now if Houston could just get an elite QB.
#23 BALTIMORE: The Blitz like to run a lot of 2 TE and heavy formations, and with a receiving corps like theirs, we see why. Rob Moore is a solid pro, but not a gamebreaker. Tim Dwight has straight line speed but not much else. Lamar Thomas and Malcom Floyd are not going to damage a defense. If it were not for solid TE play the Blitz might be in real trouble.
#24 ATLANTA: Are you afraid of Lake Dawson, Terrance Mathis and Reggie Barlow? How about if we throw in Sanjay Beach and Chris Calloway? Yeah, we thought not. Dawson is above average but is unlikely to be a #1 on any other club, and he is clearly their best option. Mathis is dynamic on returns, but as a receiver he just is not consistent enough.
TIGHT END
#1 ARIZONA: The Wranglers have the #2 wide receiver group and we are giving them the #1 TE group based on depth. And we wonder why Jake Plummer throws so many passes. This is a group that has not worked together but the 3 pieces are all high grade. O.J. Santiago could be a breakout star this year. Matt Cushing and Mark Bruener are also both more than capable of making a defense play the whole field.
#2 MEMPHIS: We are going to break our rule about depth as a key factor because with the departure of Keith Jackson to the NFL, Memphis’s Adrian Cooper is so far ahead of any other TE that it gives the Showboats an advantage no other team can claim. We feel that putting them at #1 would not be fair, but if you are going to play with only 1 TE on the field, you are going to want to be Memphis.
#3 BALTIMORE: We are putting the Blitz here on depth alone. Cam Cleeland, Kyle Brady, and now they have added Keith McKeller. That is a lot of catches among these three. None of them have the dynamism of a Keith Jackson or Shannon Sharpe, but they all can block, all can catch, and all can make you pay in the Red Zone.
#23 TAMPA BAY: If Ben Coates were still playing, the Bandits would be Top 5, but he is gone, and what they have now, Troy Drayton, Trumaine Bell, and Casey Crawford, will struggle to even gain half as many yards as Coates did all by himself.
#24 DENVER: A sad state of affairs really. Denver went from the Gold Standard with Keith Jackson, to whatever is after bronze. Marco Battaglia is the best of a weak bunch. This is a clear position of need for the Gold, and it will hold them back.
OFFENSIVE LINE
#1 SEATTLE: The Dragons need better QB play if for no other reason than to showcase just how good this line is. Lomas Brown is a beast at LT, and Greg Skrepanak is no slouch on the right side. Then you get Jesse Sapolo, Paul Jetton, and Troy Sienkowicz and this is a line that should make Corey Dillon’s dreams of a rushing title come true. If only they could get a QB who could keep the defense honest.
#2 TEXAS: Just ask Reggie Cobb how good his OL is. They are solid across the board, and while they excel at run blocking, their main task is to ensure that Kelly Stouffer never has to leave the game. Tackles Jermaine Mayberry and Ryan Tucker, guards John Burch and Jeffrey Fisher, and center Mike Arthur are never going to be media stars, but they are huge when it comes to the Outlaw offense.
#3 PITTSBURGH: Terrell Davis was good in New Orleans, but once he got behind this line in Pittsburgh he became the league rushing champion. Best known for their run blocking, this group also helped make Charlie Batch’s transition to the starting position much easier. It is no wonder that as the group gelled last year, the Maulers went on a 9-game winning streak.
#23 OAKLAND: Fans like to blame Ryan Leaf for the club’s offensive woes, but the man is running for his life. And things are not much better for Siran Stacy. The Oakland line has a penchant for missing incoming blitzers, making life miserable for Leaf and Stacy. Brendan Stai at LG is the best of the bunch, and we like the future for Jeff Saturday, but the two tackles consistently rate among the worst at their positions.
#24 MICHIGAN: We like to call Doug Flutie a running QB, but we suspect he would be a lot more immobile if he were not trying to avoid getting crushed on every play. There is not a single starter in this group who rates 80/100 on the annual statistical analysis. LT Ross Verba has had decent games, but too few and too far between to really stay as a starting LT. Things are not any stronger on the right side of the line either. So, what we are saying is don’t count on Natrone Means, the new Panther HB, to become rushing champion this year, and pray a little for tiny Doug Flutie that his legs hold out.
TEAM PREVIEWS
ATLANTIC DIVISION
Baltimore’s surprise rise along with Philadelphia’s sudden collapse turned the division upside down last year. Now we are not sure what to expect. We have a new coach in Jim Mora Jr. trying to resurrect the image of the Stars in Philly, Pittsburgh was very to end the season and may be a favorite this year, and there are rumblings that Marty Schottenheimer is looking to shake things up at QB. An interesting division to be sure, with 3, maybe 4 contenders among the 6 division rivals.
BALTIMORE BLITZ (12-4, 1st in 1999)
COACH: Lindy Infante (9th Season)
WHY OPTIMISM: Well, going 12-4 certainly helps with confidence. Adding the Heisman winner to your roster in the offseason also does not hurt. Coach Infante and the Blitz had one of their best seasons in a decade last year, and optimism is sure to run high. The defense was a huge strength and adding Michael Dean Perry alongside John Randle inside may make the Blitz impossible to run against. That will make life easier for the offense, which still relies a lot on a ground & pound philosophy. If Trent Green can stay healthy for 16 games, this team could again win the Atlantic.
WHY CONCERN: Trent Green never seems to remain healthy for 16 games, and a receiving corps of Moore, Dwight, and Malcom Floyd is not going to intimidate anyone. Yes, adding TE Keith McKeller means that Baltimore now has two good receivers in a 2 TE formation, so play action should be tough to stop, but get ahead on this team by 10 or more and they may struggle to catch up. So, you live and die by the defense’s ability to keep teams behind. OUR ASSESSMENT: We think Baltimore will be challenged in the division, and 12 wins may be hard to come by without a more explosive offense. They are good, but not a complete team. We see them slipping to a Wild Card. Our best bet is 10-6 and 2nd place.
PITTSBURGH MAULERS (10-6, 2ND in 1999)
COACH: Emmitt Thomas (4th Season)
WHY OPTIMISM: Charlie Batch had a decent year as the new starter, and the Maulers went out and got him 2 new weapons in NFL vet Jake Reed and rookie Dennis Northcut. The O-line is solid, the run game has the 1999 USFL Rushing Champ in Terrell Davis. We think Coach Thomas is ready for a title run with this squad.
WHY CONCERN: The starting secondary of Bobby Taylor, Quintin Jones, Jerome Woods and Sam Shade is one of the best in the league, and the 3 starters at LB (Dubose, Miles, Kumerow) are a scary bunch, but the front 4 of a near ancient Bob Kuberski, Moe Gardner, Shane Burton, and Jeff Cross is not going to rattle many QB’s or deter many running backs. Without a stronger front 4, Pittsburgh will have to blitz and that exposes the back end. That is the concern, that the Mauler defense is just not strong enough up front to maximize the potential of a strong secondary and LB corps. OUR ASSESSMENT: Despite the D-line concerns, we still see the Maulers as a team that can win in a variety of ways, especially if the new receivers can complement Terrell Davis’s run game. If Batch makes a good progression in his second year as the starter, we see the Maulers going far. We are saying 11-5 and a division title in Pittsburgh.
WASHINGTON FEDERALS (8-8, 3rd in 1999)
COACH: Paul Hackett (5th Season)
WHY OPTIMISM: The pieces are there, strong run game, athletic QB, high-pressure D-line, athletic LBs. The Federals, when they are at their best, can beat anyone. Reuben Droughns should help keep Barry Word fresh. Bubba Franks could be a factor in the passing game. Adding Dan Saleamua makes Jerome Brown’s job so much easier. A lot of positives in DC.
WHY CONCERN: The slide to 8-8 last year has to worry fans in the DC area. Washington was erratic on offense, and their D was not as overpowering as in past seasons. Winston Moss and Michael Barrow are asked to do a lot to keep teams under 20 points, but when they cannot, the Feds have trouble playing catch up. They look a lot like the Blitz, honestly, except that they might have better receivers with Moore, Mike Williams, and newly acquired J.J. Stokes. OUR ASSESSMENT: We think the Feds will rebound, and could make a run at a division title, but we are still wary of Kordell Stewart’s accuracy, Word’s aging knees, and the defense’s ability to hold top offenses in check. We think 9-10 wins may be the ceiling, and that may not be high enough. We are going with 9-7 and a possible low seed Wild Card.
OHIO GLORY (8-8, 4th in 1999)
COACH: Al Luginbill (3rd Season)
WHY OPTIMISM: Ohio did well to win 8 games last year. Al Luginbill has to be happy with the progress seen in both Kerry Collins and Eddie George. Galloway is perhaps the best receiver in the league, and adding Qadry Ismail made his game even better. We like Stephen Alexander at TE as well. Ohio looks ready to become a well-rounded offense.
WHY CONCERN: While Luginbill is improving the offense, the D is the big issue. The secondary did not get enough attention and the draft did not really help add much. We like John Copeland at LDE, and La’Roi Glover looks solid at DT, but beyond that, they don’t have much to fear. If they can’t get a top 10 or 12 ranking from the D, that improving offense won’t be enough, especially in this division where D is key. OUR ASSESSMENT: We like what Al Luginbill is doing with the offense, but Ohio needed to upgrade across the D and they simply didn’t. We see a step back here until they get that sorted out. Our best guess is 6-10 and another year of disappointment in Columbus.
NEW JERSEY GENERALS (6-10, 5th in 1999)
COACH: Marty Schottenheimer (3rd Season)
WHY OPTIMISM: Are NJ fans ever optimistic? Well, this year may be a hard one to find optimism in. They have a QB controversy with Coach Schottenheimer bringing in Jeff Lewis as a clear sign that he does not have faith in Spence Fischer. We do like the receiving corps of Glenn, Kevin Johnson and Wayne Chrebet, and the arrival of good-looking rookie Anthony Becht may even make that group more dangerous. That makes life easier for Curtis Enis, who can be a huge weapon if teams can’t load the box. Phil Hansen remains a beast and rookie Shaun Ellis may make him even more dangerous. Those are the positives.
WHY CONCERN: DT remains a weak point for the Generals, and they have added 2 new starting LBs so that will take time to gel. The secondary is not great, and teams do seem to be willing to risk 2-3 Hansen sacks per game to take advantage of that. And, with uncertainty at QB, we are not sure what we will see out of the offense. That has to worry fans, who are already pretty cynical in NJ. OUR ASSESSMENT: 9-7 is not out of the question, but this roster does not look like one that will suddenly jump to 10 or more wins. We liked what we saw from Jeff Lewis in limited action in Denver, but is he ready to unseat Fischer? We are going to say another 7-9 finish seems likely.
PHILADELPHIA STARS (5-11, 6th in 1999)
COACH: Jim Mora Jr. (1st Season)
WHY OPTIMISM: We have to remember that it has been only 1 bad season since the Stars were atop the division in 1998. And, of course, having a Mora back as the lead man in the coaching room certainly fills the Star fans with hope. Bobby Hebert still has a lot of fire in his belly and in his right arm. Stephen Davis arrives from Birmingham and both he and the Stars think it is a good fit for him to reach 1,000 yards. We like the signing of Bobby Engram from the NFL, and they have solid TEs in Eric Green and Marcus Pollard.
WHY CONCERN: The biggest reason for the collapse to 5-11 last year was not Hebert or the run game, it was the D. It simply aged out of being effective. Adding rookies like Deltha O’Neal and Kendrick Clancy is a great long range boost, but they will need time to grow into the pro game. We think Philly is on the right path, but it likely won’t lead to a jump up the standings in year one of Jim Mora Jr’s tenure. OUR ASSESSMENT: We are going to keep the Stars in the basement at 6-10, but we think that in another year, with some shrewd signings, they could retool and be ready to make a move.
SOUTHERN DIVISION
This division is stacked, mostly with offensive powerhouses. You have the past two USFL Champions in Memphis and Tampa Bay, and you still have Brett Favre in Birmingham. Makes you feel kind of bad for poor Orlando, so close to being so good, and then Jacksonville and Atlanta. Can any of these three make strides like the one the Showboats made last season?
MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS (12-4, 1st in 1999)
COACH: Jim Mora (4th Season)
WHY OPTIMISM: The Showboats surprised everyone last year, shooting up the South standings and taking home their first league title. Fans in the Mid-South now think they could become the first USFL club to ever repeat. While we love what Coach Mora (Sr.) has done with the ‘Boats, repeating has not happened in the league’s 18 seasons because it is a very tough task. We love Heath Shuler’s growth last year and expect him to be an MVP candidate again. Joe Horn, Lawyer Tillman, and possibly now Tydus Wynans are all quality receivers and in Adrian Cooper they have a record-setting TE. All good signs for this club.
WHY CONCERN: Reggie White has retired. Moe Williams has moved on. It feels like Memphis has lost more than they gained in the offseason. They also traded away Al Wilson (LB) and Montae Reager (DT), and while we like Dameaion Jeffries, he is no Reggie White. Memphis will have to win by outscoring opponents, and with the Stallions and Bandits also all in on offense, that could be tough. OUR ASSESSMENT: While fans think Memphis has a shot to repeat, we think they took their shot last year and are likely to step back this year under intense pressure from 3 other really good Southern teams, all aiming at them. 10-6 and a Wild Card may be more realistic for the Showboats.
BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS (11-5, 2nd in 1999)
COACH: Ron Erhardt (9th Season)
WHY OPTIMISM: The Stallions were 1 game away from a Summer Bowl, have an elite QB, improved their run game with 2 solid backs (free agent Rodney Thomas and ‘Bama rookie Shaun Alexander, and have all 3 of their top receivers back. So, the offense is golden.
WHY CONCERN: You know we are going to say defense, right? Other than Cornelius Bennett at LB and 1999 Defensive ROTY Mike Rucker, who do they have? Oh, that’s right, Deion Sanders. That actually is a significant addition. Of course, Sanders is not great against the run, so Birmingham may still struggle to stop the run, but if he can shut down each opponent’s #1 receiver, that makes life a lot easier. OUR ASSESSMENT: We have to say that we are excited to see Sanders go up against Tampa’s Randy Moss. That should be fun. Birmingham still has issues on defense, but they have an offense designed to get ahead in games and a D that can rush the passer and now, with Sanders, perhaps cut off the best receiver, making comebacks very hard. That is a pretty good combo, and so we are going to say 13-3 and a #1 seed for the Stallions this year. Our early favorite for the title.
ORLANDO RENEGADES (9-7, 3rd in 1999)
COACH: George O’Leary (7th Season)
WHY OPTIMISM: The Renegades made a great run last year and look like a pretty well-rounded roster. Donald Driver had a great rookie year, going over 1,000 yards receiving, and should only improve. Terry Kirby was dynamic in both the run and pass game, and now gets a quality back-mate in Moe Williams. Rookie Tyrone Carter (SS) should help the secondary be more aggressive, and Chris Doleman may well be the best DE in the game right now, surpassing both the retired Reggie White and the older Phil Hansen.
WHY CONCERN: We are just not sold on Scott Mitchell. He has thrown double digit picks each of the past 4 seasons and while his numbers are OK, they are not in the same ballpark as Aikman, Favre, and Shuler. Add to that a LB corps that struggles to cover receivers and you are putting all the pressure on Doleman to end drives. That is tricky business. OUR ASSESSMENT: We like Orlando, but we don’t love them. They could easily be 2nd in the division, or just as easily 4th or 5th. That smells like 9-7 again to us.
TAMPA BAY BANDITS (7-9, 4th in 1999)
COACH: George Seifert (4th Season)
WHY OPTIMISM: Last year was a fluke. That is what the apologists are saying. After all this is a team with Aikman, Rhett, Moss, and Brooks on offense. They added Santana Dotson to help pressure the other big Southern Division QBs and may have found a gem in rookie DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. What is not to like?
WHY CONCERN: Well, since you asked. They have not found a good replacement for Ben Coates, which really hampers their offensive efficiency. Other than Darien Gordon, their secondary is mediocre, and they have not been able to get Rhett to 1,000 yards rushing since 1995. OUR ASSESSMENT: We think 8-8 is too low for Tampa, but are they still as good as their 1998 title seemed to indicate? We don’t think so. Third place and 9 or 10 wins seems a good ceiling for the Bandits.
JACKSONVILLE BULLS (6-10, 5th in 1999)
COACH: Gunther Cunningham (2nd Season)
WHY OPTIMISM: Coach Cunningham got good results out of a roster in flux last year. The club played hard all through the second half of a lost season, they may have found a runner in Sedrick Irvin, having traded away a disgruntled Natrone Means. They have one of the league’s best young receivers in Terrell Owens, and they added a jitterbug of a slot man in Dez White. Oh, and, yes, cover model LaVar Arrington is ready to become a star in North Florida. We love Arrington’s speed and aggression. Putting him alongside Jessie Armstead and newly acquired Mike Vrabel gives Jacksonville a murderer’s row at LB.
WHY CONCERN: There are still some major issues on both sides of the ball. The loss of Brian Blades will be felt. The secondary has issues, especially with 3-4 WR formations, and the Bulls are still waiting for Jevon Kearse to have a breakout season at DE. OUR ASSESSMENT: The Bulls could make a big step up this year. We could see them possibly even competing for 2nd place behind Birmingham. But with Orlando, Memphis, and Tampa Bay ahead of them, they need to be at their best each week, something that has proved difficult, especially for Chris Chandler, in recent years. We are going to say 8-8 is a realistic year for them and a step in the right dimension.
ATLANTA FIRE (2-14, 6th in 1999)
COACH: Bobby Petrino (1st Season)
WHY OPTIMISM: It can’t get any worse? I guess that is optimism. New head coach Bobby Petrino comes to Atlanta from the U. of Louisville, where he is used to going into games against clubs with more talent than his. That is going to be the case almost every week in the USFL as the Fire have simply failed in 5 years to build a strong roster. We think Tiki Barber is really good, but he cannot do it all himself. Atlanta is looking to 2nd year QB Aaron Brooks to add some energy to the QB position, but energy is not the same as skill. The WR corps is still a weakness and TE is even worse. And this is our optimism section.
WHY CONCERN: The defense is the star of our concern section. They have been bad since the club was founded, and we think they will be pretty bad once again. They do have talent at CB with Tyrone Poole, Tyrone Legette, and “Tyronde” Barber forming a really solid 3-man depth there. We like Mo Lewis and London Fletcher, but are they fast enough at LB to do what needs to be done. Adding Johnny Holland could help. Up front, adding Bruce Smith looks great on paper, and if it were 1991 we would expect a lot, but Bruce’s best days are behind him. He may be good for 10+ sacks, but will he be a major factor in most games? OUR ASSESSMENT: Coach Petrino knew he was taking on a tough task in Atlanta. It is not just that the Fire have needs in several positions, it is that they are in what is undoubtedly the toughest division not only in the USFL, but in all of pro football. 5-6 wins would be a really strong first year for Petrino in Atlanta.
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