So, what did week 12 bring us? Well, Philadelphia again asserted their claim on the Atlantic by knocking off Washington as Coach Hackett opted not to play Kordell Stewart after all. Baltimore got back in the mix by upending Ohio. Memphis stumbled as Birmingham pulled themselves away from the pit of playoff elimination with a home win, Jacksonville broke their 3-game losing streak with a statement win against the Bandits, and Orlando took care of business, shutting down and shutting out the Fire in Atlanta.
In the Western Conference we saw Chicago return to .500 and playoff relevance with a win in Houston. St. Louis needed 19 points in the final quarter to edge past a game Texas Outlaw Squad, and New Orleans was snakebit at home, falling to a feisty Michigan Panther squad. Finally, in the Pacific, Denver used home field advantage and a stifling defense to shut down the Wranglers, Oakland upset the Express and put a huge crimp in their playoff plans, and the Portland Thunder, well, yes, lost again, this time in Seattle as the Dragons clinched a playoff spot with a win. Let’s run through it all, starting with our game of the week, a surprising uprising in Oakland.
As surprising as the sudden rise of the LA Express was last season, their decline this year has been equally perplexing. The loss this week to Oakland drops them to 5-7 and very likely out of any playoff contention, though mathematically they are still in the mix. The explosive offense and solid, aggressive defense that had propelled them to a division title in 1999 have simply not been as effective or as consistent this year. This week’s game against arch rival Oakland proved that. The Express converted only 2 of 11 third down opportunities against a defense that has been unable to get off the field all season, while the LA defense allowed Oakland to convert 8 of 17 similar chances, a stat that led to a lopsided time of possession advantage for the Invaders.
The Express held the lead at three different times in this game yet could not keep Oakland off the board and needed a last minute Doug Brien field goal to send the game to overtime, but that was not enough. They got 166 combined rushing yards and 2 TDs from Antowain Smith and Michael Pittman, but that too was not enough. A big part of the problem was lack of consistency from last year’s Rookie of the Year, QB Cade McNown, who completed 11 of 19 passes, but missed on too many key downs. When your leading receiver for the game has only 3 receptions for 59 yards, you are going to have trouble winning.
It also does not help when the opposing QB, in this case Ryan Leaf, completes 20 of 36 and throws 3 scoring passes. Leaf found Ed McCaffrey twice for scores, Marty Booker once, and also completed 6 throws for 108 yards to rookie Plaxico Burress. But it was not an all-out aerial assault for the Invaders, they too found success on the ground, with Troy Davis and Siran Stacy combining for 33 carreis and 134 yards. It also helped that the defense found its way through, around, and over the LA offensive line, to the tune of 6 sacks of McNown. Pressure definitely made it a long day for the former UCLA signal caller, but so did unforced errors. Eight penalties did not help the Express cause.
And so, with the loss, the Express find themselves in 8th position after 12 weeks, a game behind the battle of Michigan, Chicago, and Arizona for the final Wild Card spot. And for their part, Oakland, after a horrendous 1-6 start, have won 3 of their last 5, including high scoring wins over Baltimore and Michigan, and a solid performance this week vs. LA. At 4-8 we don’t see the Invaders making a late playoff run, but it is good to see that the team is beginning to improve under Coach Capers, on both sides of the ball.
ARZ 13 DEN 26
Arizona’s up and down season again finds them at .500, though a loss at Denver is hardly unexpected. The Gold have been one of the most consistent clubs all season. Rashaan Salaam’s 97 yards rushing helped overcome a rough day for Mark Brunell (2 picks and only 185 yards passing), while the defense tormented Jake Plummer all game (4 sacks, 3 picks). Craig Whelihan was also forced into action in the final period when Plummer went out of the game after failing to opt for a slide at the end of a run and taking a big hit from Marvcus Patton. With the win, Denver’s 10th, they lock up a playoff berth.
POR 16 SEA 27
Seattle too punched their ticket to the postseason with a home victory. It will be the Dragons’ first franchise trip to the playoffs and they are still knotted up with Denver in the battle for the Pacific title. Timm Rosenbach saw his first action for Portland as Rick Mirer had to leave the game early. He would only complete 8 of 15 throws as Portland tried to grind the game out on the ground. Gio Carmazzi would throw for 3 scores and complete 24 of 31 as he makes his claim to be the starter even after Brian Griese is able to return from injury. That decision will have to come soon as Griese is getting close to clearing the medical requirements for a return.
MGN 31 NOR 28
A huge win for the Panthers as they get back to .500 and knock off the division leading Breakers in New Orleans. Chris Canty’s pick six of Breaker backup Bobby Hoying was the key play that gave the Panthers a 31-13 lead early in the 4th. New Orleans battled back, but it was too little too late as the Panthers took advantage of Ricky Williams’s absence and focused on shutting down Hoying to earn a much-needed divisional win.
CHI 13 HOU 3
Chicago also returned to .500 and the Wild Card chase with a divisional win, this time against the offensively challenged Houston Gamblers. Both teams struggled to score, but Chicago also slowed down the game by relying heavily on their 2-back offense. Ricky Watters got stronger as the game progressed, turning 50 yards at the half into 134 by the game’s conclusion. He also scored the only 2 touchdowns of the game as Chicago did not allow Houston any room to breathe.
STL 24 TEX 21
The Knights also got an important win, moving within 1 game of New Orleans thanks to a comeback from a 21-5 deficit in the final period. St. Louis got TDs from Kez McCorvey and Reggie Kelley in the final period, converted two 2-point conversions, and got the winning kick from Ryan Longwell with 23 seconds to play to upend the feisty Texas Outlaws and move to 8-4 on the year. Last year St. Louis overcame the Outlaws to claim the division title on the season’s final week. This year it looks like they are going to try the same with New Orleans.
OHI 14 BAL 24
A big win for the Blitz, a tough loss for the Glory as Balitmore gets the only points of the 4th quarter to pull past the Glory on a hot, humid day in Baltimore. Ron Dayne had one of his best games of the year, rushing for 110 and 2 scores as he wore down the Glory defense. Add in 227 yards passing from Jeff Garcia and a defense that sacked Kerry Collins 6 times and you have a Blitz victory at home.
WSH 21 PHI 30
Philadelphia took over the driver’s seat in the race for the Atlantic Division title with a huge win over Washington at Veterans Stadium. Despite getting only 33 yards rushing from Stephen Davis, Philadelphia fond ways to score on the Feds, thanks in large part to 330 yards and 4 TD passes from veteran QB Bobby Hebert. Scott Zolak struggled against the Philadelphia zone defense in what should be his last start before Kordell Stewart returns, and Washington now finds themselves tied for second with arch rival Baltimore.
NJ 26 PIT 24
In the battle of disappointing squads this year, New Jersey eked out a win against the Maulers, a win that most likely delayed the firing of Coach Marty Schottenheimer by another week. Rumors of Marty’s departure even before the season concluded have been running rampant in local media, and even this win may not keep away the wolves at the door for long.
MEM 24 BIR 28
The Stallions continue to fight in what seemed a lost season, this time dealing a major blow to the Showboats’ division title hopes. Brett Favre connected with Lawrence Dawsey for 2 scores and Marcus Robinson for the decisive third score, the only TD of the final period, as the Stallions upend the Showboats in front of a raucous Legion Field crowd.
TBY 21 JAX 41
The Bulls needed to show up big in this one after 3 straight losses moved them from 1st place to a non-playoff position, and boy did they. Chris Chandler threw for 3 TDs and the combo of Irvin and Bynum combine for 151 yards rushing as the Bulls manhandled the Bandits in front of an appreciative home crowd. Four Bandit turnovers, all fumbles, proved the downfall for Tampa Bay as it just seemed like every time they got something going, someone would cough the ball up. With the win the Bulls edge Ohio and find themselves in the 6th position with 4 games left to play.
ORL 17 ATL 0
Atlanta looked completely spent as the Orlando Renegades shut them out and shut them down. Aaron Brooks completed only 18 of 42 pass attempts and Tiki Barber was held to only 42 yards as the Orlando defense owned the day. Craig Ericson got some snaps as an ankle concern for Scott Mitchell led Coach O’Leary to take him out with the game still in the 3rd quarter but the Renegades very much in control.
As the season reaches its final weeks, the one thing no playoff contender wants to see are key injuries that will cost them important players. Of course, no team wants to see injuries, but for some losing a key player at this time of the season can alter the entire trajectory of a team. For Chicago, hoping to climb back into the playoff field, losing WR Curtis Conway could be a big blow. The former NFL wideout suffered an abdominal tear, a nasty injury to recover from, and was placed on IR this week. Chicago did not have a very dynamic or a very deep receiving corps, so losing Conway could really be a big blow.
Arizona also lost a top receiver, though there is hope that Carl Pickens, and his ankle, will be back for the season closer in Week 16. His absence puts more pressure on Rocket Ismail to continue to be the focal point of the Wrangler passing game.
In Orlando the news about Scott Mitchell’s foot is better than first thought. Mitchell had to be assisted off the field on Sunday, but x-rays came back negative for any breaks, prompting Orlando to list him as Doubtful for this week, but that makes it very likely that he could be back by Week 14 or 15 at the latest.
In St. Louis, another receiver, the irreplaceable Bert Emmanuel, is listed as Questionable for this week’s game and could be a game time decision as he deals with a hip pointer. Others who may be out this week include Texas LB Dhani Jones (placed on IR), Birmingham DE Mike Rucker (1-2 weeks with broken finger), Portland DE Clyde Simmons (1-2 weeks with knee issue), and Texas WR Jeff Query (Doubtful with elbow injury).
DENVER & SEATTLE CLINCH BUT BATTLE ENDURES
In what looks like a battle that will come to a head in the seasons’ final week, the Denver Gold and Seattle Dragons both clinch a playoff spot but are also knotted up atop the Pacific Division. The two face off in Seattle on the final week of the year, and from the look of things that game will determine who gets the top seed in the Western Conference, home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and a much desired bye week.
On paper these two clubs actually look very similar, Seattle and Denver differ by only 10 points (307 to 297) in points scored, and only 17 (217 to 201) in points allowed. Both have Top 10 defenses against the pass, with Seattle having the edge against the run. Seattle leads the league in rushing with 1,620 yards, mostly thanks to Corey Dillon’s breakout season, but Denver is right behind, 3rd in the league with 1,472 yards, most of theirs from Rashaan Salaam. In fact, you might say that Coach Tiller in Seattle has built a club very much using the model of Denver, solid defense, strong run game, QB play designed first and foremost to protect the ball. It is surprising, considering the reputation that Tiller brought with him from the college game for wide open offenses, but this formula has certainly worked this year, a year which has seen Seattle have to adapt from Brian Griese to rookie Gio Carmazzi at QB. Both clubs are certain of a playoff berth this year, but keep your eyes out for that Week 16 game, it should be an epic battle with a lot on the line.
TEAMS ON LIFE SUPPORT
On the other end of the playoff spectrum we are seeing several teams who are on playoff life support. Ohio has all but played themselves out of a shot, and certainly out of any chance for a division title, with three straight losses. Admittedly, losing to Memphis, Seattle, and Baltimore is not really that shocking, but with 2 of those 3 games at home, a team with playoff aspirations has to do better. The Glory face only one more team with a winning record in their final 4, so they could rally, but right now they are on the outside looking up at the top 6 positions.
Tampa Bay is another club that is on the outside looking in. The Bandits are now 2 games outside of the 6th place slot, with only 4 to play. Back to back losses to New Orleans and Jacksonville have them at 5-7, but they too have a favorable schedule, with Oakland, Birmingham, and Atlanta still to play. That game in week 14 against the Stallions will all but certainly eliminate one of the two Southern squads from contention.
Yes, Birmingham is in contention. We know it has not felt like it for most of the season, but at 5-7, tied with Tampa Bay, the Stallions could get lucky and find themselves positioned well for a late run. Their schedule is not the easiest, with back to back trips to Arizona and Tampa up next, and they likely need to run the table and go 4-0 over the final month of the season to have any shot, but it is feasible. As we said, the Tampa Bay game will be vital, as will a week 16 clash at home against the Bulls.
Out West, we have a 3-way tie at 6-6, with only 2 of the 3 able to earn Wild Card slots. Michigan and Chicago currently occupy those 2 spots, with Arizona on the outs due to tiebreakers. LA at 5-7 is still also in this mix, but they need to get a lot of help to move up in the standings. Michigan’s path may be the hardest as their next 3 games are home against the Federals, at Seattle, and then home to St. Louis. If they can win 2 of those 3, a tough challenge, they may be in good shape with a Week 16 game against Texas.
Chicago’s path to the playoffs is somewhat easier, with their next two games against 2-10 Pittsburgh and 4-8 Oakland before a tougher final 2 against the Breakers and the Knights. They too think 3 of 4 is the key to a playoff spot. For Arizona, 3 of the 4 games are against team with losing records, starting with Birmingham at home this week, then a tough one against New Orleans before finishing with Portland and Oakland. Winning 3 of 4 also looks very good for them.
Finally, LA, looking at a schedule that includes Orlando and Seattle, may need to win all 4 to jump over the three 6-6 clubs. Even games against Portland and Texas may not be enough if they cannot upset the Renegades and Dragons, though both games are in LA.
AWARD ODDS
Is this the year for a defender to take some of the league’s top awards? It very well may be. When we look at the MVP race, there is no clear frontrunner, and some of the top potential vote getters on offense are likely to be on non-playoff teams, so will that cost them votes? Jake Plummer has had an amazing season, mostly thanks to his rushing stats, but the Wranglers are only 6-6 and could easily miss the post-season. Brett Favre is on a 5-7 Birmingham squad. Heath Shuler has not had the kind of season likely to make him an MVP repeat winner, and Scott Mitchell, who has played very well, is outshone by a defender on his own club, DE Chris Doleman.
Doleman could very well win MVP this year if Orlando can hold on to win the South. His 17 sacks lead the league, and he has been a terror all around, producing 4 forced fumbles as well. Another potential MVP could be Denver’s Leslie O’Neill, who trails Doleman by 3 sacks, but is equally strong against the run and is a big reason why Denver is 10-2.
When we look at Rookie of the Year, the argument is likely to come down to a battle between HB Ron Dayne of Baltimore and DE John Abraham of Seattle. Both are worthy of recognition, with Dayne closing in on 1,000 yards, while Abraham, with 14 sacks, is only 3 behind Doleman for the league title. If it is even, the tie almost always goes to the offensive player, but this year, with Seattle challenging Denver out west, and Dayne easily trailing several other halfbacks, this may be the year for a defender to get the nod, much as Phil Hansen did in his outstanding rookie year. With 4 games left, if Abraham can squeak out 6 sacks to reach 20, we think the title will be his, but fall short of that and Dayne could get the nod.
We have our first locked in playoff spots as both the Denver Gold and Seattle Dragons, both 10-2, have clinched a spot in the postseason. Of course, with both in the same division, the battle for the division title, and its very sought-after bye week, could last all the way until a Week 16 clash. Both teams hope to run the table and lock up a week of rest and home field throughout the playoffs. New Orleans is at least a week away from locking up a spot but hold a 3-game lead over the team in 17th place, with only 4 left to play. A win this week could wrap it up.
In the Eastern Conference it is a bit more muddled, with 5 teams sporting either 9 or 8 wins and one 7-win club on the outside looking in. Right now the club in that most hated 7th position is Ohio, but, as we have seen recently, standings can change quickly as tiebreakers are influenced by every win or loss, even in games pitting non-playoff teams. This week Orlando has its turn at #1, with Philly in 2nd, and Baltimore, Memphis, and Washington a game behind. But each week there has been movement on the standings, and we expect some of the key aspects of the playoff hunt, particularly seeding to last the rest of the regular season.
Right now, only 3 teams are truly mathematically eliminated, Portland, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh. New Jersey is about as close to elimination as a team can get and yet still have a mathematically viable path to a playoff spot. Houston and Texas are close behind. Losses this week by any of these three would likely spell elimination in next week’s calculations.
As we anticipated, after the league owners moved to table any expansion talk until 2005 at the earliest, we have started to receive reports of ownership groups, hoping to obtain a USFL franchise, reaching out to various USFL owners to explore the possibility of sale and relocation. This is something the league was hoping to avoid, certainly during the season itself, but also in general, as this kind of disruption can affect not only league integrity, but the day to day functioning of a franchise, and can be death to ticket sales. If a fanbase starts to become concerned that their franchise may be seeking greener pastures, it is easy to tune the team out and certainly spend less on their fandom.
So far we have heard from representatives of the franchises in Oakland, Portland, St. Louis, Memphis, and Texas, reporting that they have been approached by a variety of bidders and potential investors who are hoping that the topic of sale and relocation is on the table.
The case of the Texas Outlaws is an interesting one. This is a team with a pretty solid fanbase in San Antonio, a good contract with the Alamo Dome and no direct competition for football dollars, with no NFL franchise or major college program in the city. And yet, they seem to be the target of a pretty well-heeled ownership group based out of Dallas and hoping to bring a team to “Big D”. The good news, if there is good news for the folks in San Antonio, is that this group is not affiliated with Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys. In fact, they seem to be pitching SMU’s Gerald Ford Stadium as a potential Dallas venue for a relocated Outlaws squad. The group interested in the Outlaws is led by Michael Dell. Dell is the owner and Chairman of the computer company that bears his name and leads a well-financed group, but the Outlaws are not exactly a team screaming for greater revenue or a change of venue. Despite some rough seasons, the Outlaws draw well and have a solid fanbase. Dallas, long dominated by the NFL Cowboys, seems a city that does not have a deep pool of disaffected football fans crying out for an alternative. The move to bring a USFL team to the city seems more an ego grab by Dell and his minority owners than a proposal fully backed by the city or any potential fanbase in the city.
The same is not true in Boston, where an ownership group led by John W. Henry and Les Otten. Henry, a high-end financial manager, has already gotten involved with minor league baseball, the NBA (Orlando Magic) and has made noise about potentially making a bid on the Boston Red Sox. Otten is most known as one of the movers and shakers in the skiing industry nationwide, owning several of the top ski resorts across the Northeast as well as in the Rockies. Another well-financed group, the big issue for the Boston area is stadium access. This group, like others before it, have been unable to make headway on landing a deal with either Foxboro Stadium or the new Gillette Stadium (planned completion in 2002). Without that modern suburban stadium, a Boston ownership group has to work with the somewhat intransigent officials at Boston College or Harvard. We all know the issues that the Boston Breakers had, first resigned to playing in tiny Nickerson Field at Boston U., and then a very poor deal to play at Harvard Stadium, before relocating to New Orleans. While a Boston ownership group has reached out to the Portland Thunder, St. Louis Knights and Memphis Showboats, and a sale could be beneficial for the ownership of those three franchises, USFL leadership would certainly not approve a sale without a strong stadium deal in place, and we just don’t see that happening unless Robert Kraft, owner of the new Foxboro-placed Gillette Stadium changes his strong anti-USFL stance.
Finally, we have a new player in the game, one who has also reached out to several franchises, including, oddly enough, Orlando, who do not seem in any position to abandon a good deal in Central Florida. An ownership group led by Cal Turner (Chairman of Dollar General) and Ray Danner (Former head of the Shoney’s restaurant chain), have an agreement for a potential spring football lease of the newly constructed Adelphia Stadium, home to the NFL Tennessee Copperheads. That is certainly a good start if a sale were proposed. The issue we see with Nashville is the immediate complaints from 3 USFL franchises, Memphis, Birmingham, and Atlanta. Adding a 4th franchise to the region seems a challenge, and one that would almost certainly damage the value of the Memphis Showboats in particular. Atlanta has done themselves no favors in building a fanbase by having a perennial loser in the city, but is a large enough market that a Nashville franchise may not be a major hinderance. Birmingham has the opposite situation, a smaller market but one with a rabid fanbase that is fully committed to the Stallions. But Memphis, a city that has major financial issues, and which is losing the race to be Tennessee’s flagship city to Nashville, would almost certainly suffer if a franchise were to locate in Nashville.
Of course, Memphis is one of the franchises being wooed by the Turner-Danner ownership group, along with St. Louis and Orlando. Were the Showboats to be sold and relocated to Nashville, it would not be an additional southern team, and that might make the sale more palatable for all owners, but particularly those in Atlanta and Birmingham. That said, the owners of the Showboats, despite their concerns about the long-term viability of the Liberty Bowl Stadium, have a lot of reasons to retain the Showboats. They have a strong revenue stream, a rabid fanbase of their own, success on the field, and enough corporate presence in the region to sell the few luxury boxes available at the Liberty Bowl. So the question becomes one of priorities. Can Turner and Danner produce an offer that is so enticing to Memphis ownership that they would give up their nearly 20-year relationship with the city and its fans. That may be the key to whether or not the Showboats remain a staple of Memphis sports culture or whether Nashville, already a player in the NFL, gets a second team.
Week 13 brings us to the final quarter of the season, and so much on the line as the first playoff spots have been claimed, with 10 more slots yet to be decided, and, of course byes, division titles, home field, a lot of cherished playoff advantages still out there to be won. We are in interconference play this week, the last pure interconference week of the season. The Eastern clubs travel to the middle of the country to face Central Division foes while the Southern Division is out on the Pacific Coast.
One of the most intriguing matchups pits two defensive stalwarts against each other as the Baltimore Blitz head down to New Orleans to face the Breakers. A win could clinch a playoff spot for New Orleans, something very few saw in their future this past offseason. In another big matchup Michigan, sitting on the cusp at 6-6 is hosting Washington in what we now know will be Kordell Stewart’s return to action. In several other games we have teams looking to play spoiler as New Jersey is in St. Louis, Ohio visits Texas, Pittsburgh is in Chicago, and Philadelphia heads down to Houston.
In the Southern-Pacific clashes, the ones to watch are Jacksonville, fresh off a much-needed win, heading to Denver to face the Gold and the attitude, and 8-4 Memphis heading to the Pacific Northwest to face the 10-2 Seattle Dragons, who clinched their first playoff appearance ever this past week. LA hosts Orlando at Farmers Insurance Field, and they absolutely must win if they have any hope of a repeat playoff appearance. Tampa Bay and Oakland also face off in a game that is vital for Tampa Bay if they too want to make the postseason. In Arizona, the Wranglers sit at .500 but 5-7 Birmingham has been coming on, so this is a tough one for the home team. Finally, we have 2-10 Atlanta visiting 1-11 Portland in a game that could well determine who has the top pick in next year’s draft. Should we just call this one the Michael Vick Bowl?