It’s like an extra week of playoff football when so much is on the line on the regular season’s final week. Six clubs vying for 3 division titles, another three with Win & you are in scenarios. All the pressure, all the drama, and so much on the line. It is what makes football so great. It’s not 154 games, or 82, but only 16 games in 16 weeks to determine who is getting to the postseason. It’s every game matters. It’s due or die. That is what we got this week, with so much yet to be determined and 12 games that would decide it all.
It could have been a game where both clubs looked at the odds and decided to play it safe. Denver could win the Pacific even with a loss to Seattle in Seattle, while the Dragons needed an unlikely huge blowout to upend the Gold and steal the title from them. And yet, despite the long odds for anything other than a Denver division crown, this one played out like a Conference Championship, and could very well be a preview of one.
We got to witness two of the league’s best backs, as both Rashaan Salaam and Corey Dillon were on display, and both ended the game over the 100-yard mark. We also got to see both Brian Griese and Mark Brunell play some of their best football of the year. Brunell would complete 22 of 33 for 356 yards and 3 scores, while Griese dinked and dunked his way to an 83.3% completion rate (20 of 24) and 2 scores as well. Seattle would at one point buildup an 18 point lead, but Denver would come back to make this game a close one. We got unheralded Denver wideout Dedric Smith racking up 127 yards and a score, and we saw David Boston for Seattle connect on a 51 yard completion but somehow not score.
The game was a firecracker from the opening kickoff to the final whistle. 24 points were scored in the 1st quarter, 17 in the 2nd, 18 in the 3rd and 22 in the 4th. If you wanted to go to a restroom, or get that extra bag of chips from the kitchen, you had better race against the commercial break to do it, because you did not want to miss a play in this game.
This one was a classic, with both clubs very much looking like Summer Bowl contenders, but only one could come out on top, and when push came to shove, Seattle built up a 42-24 lead and held it until the final whistle. It was not enough to upend the Gold and take the title, that still went to Denver, but it certainly sent a message that Wild Card or not, Seattle would be a force to reckon with.
ORL 20 MEM 41
The other showdown of clubs battling for a division title did not produce quite as much drama as Memphis pulled ahead early and kept Orlando at arm’s length the entire game. With Scott Mitchell still dealing with an injury, Craig Ericson struggled against an aggressive Jim Mora defense. Ericson would finish the day with 2 touchdowns but only 129 yards passing, and while Terry Kirby averaged 5.5 yards per carry, with the Renegades trailing most of the game, he only got 11 carries. Garrison Hearst had a huge game, rushing for 109 and 2 scores while Heath Shuler also threw two scores and went 18 for 22 against the ‘Gades, despite frequent pressure from Chris Doleman (held without a sack on the day). With the win, Memphis lands the 2nd seed and a bye. Orlando will still be the 3 seed, which means a home playoff game next week.
OHI 37 PIT 35
Ohio needed every ounce of quality they had to defeat a very game Pittsburgh squad and clinch the franchise’s first ever playoff appearance. Terrell Davis was a menace to the Glory D all game, rushing 23 times for 140 yards and a score. Andre Rison also caught 8 balls for 119 yards and 3 scores as Pittsburgh put a serious scare into the Glory. Kerry Collins responded with 3 TD passes and Eddie George rushed for 2 scores as Ohio held on to win the game and secure the 6th and final playoff spot in the East. However, the game did not come without a cost, as George could be lost for the next month after suffering what may be a broken bone in his right foot. He will certainly miss the Wild Card game, putting Ohio’s run game in question, but could be out longer.
ARZ 17 OAK 10
Oakland too decided to put up a fight, though their offense continued to struggle. It took a late Carl Pickens TD catch and a 2 point PAT run from Plummer to secure the win for the Wranglers, a win that came with the 5th seed in the West. Plummer rushed only 5 times, and gained 0 yards, but thankfully Dorsey Levins picked up the slack, rushing for 129 against the Invaders and helping Arizona return to the postseason.
LA 16 POR 6
The Express knew a win would get them back to the postseason as well, but they too struggled in the season’s final week. Portland had them locked up at 6-6 at the half before a Cade McNown to R. Jay Soward TD pass in the third gave them the lead for good. Despite earning 21 first downs to only 7 for Portland, the Express simply did not look in synch on offense. They rushed for 223 as they protected their lead in the second half, but could only add another 3 points to the total as Portland fought them for every inch.
CHI 20 STL 42
Chicago had the hardest road to a playoff spot, needing to upset the Knights in St. Louis and then hope that LA would lose in Portland. While the scoreboard of the LA-Portland game gave them hope, the fact that St. Louis had a shot at the top seed in the West meant that they got no easy matchup against backups. The Knight starters built up a 21-3 lead and never trailed in the game, racking up 171 rushing yards, with Ahman Green gaining 97, just enough to capture the league rushing title. St. Louis would earn that top seed with the win and the Denver loss, while Chicago would end the year at 7-9 and out of the postseason after a 4-1 start to the year turned into a 3-8 finish.
BAL 23 PHI 26
Needing the W to lock up the top seed in the East, Philadelphia kept all their starters in the game for the full 60 minutes, and they needed to as Baltimore was playing for keeps, despite already assured a Wild Card game. Stephen Davis rushed for 117 for the Stars and Bobby Hebert survived 3 interceptions by the Blitz defense to give the Stars the win they needed to claim the top seed. Baltimore would finish the week as a 5 seed, setting up a really intriguing Wild Card matchup against their arch rivals.
NJ 13 WSH 31
Baltimore will travel to Washington after the Feds dispatched the New Jersey Generals to finish 11-5 and lock up the #4 seed. Rueben Droughns again outgained Barry Word and got the lion’s share of the carries as Washington built up a 31-6 lead after 3 quarters. Phil Hansen got only 1 sack, keeping him one shy of the league title, but Terry Glenn’s 6 receptions for the Generals gave him the receptions title for the year, a faint gleam of light in a very dark season for New Jersey.
JAX 28 BIR 33
The Stallions finish the year at 8-8 thanks to a 5-point home win against the Bulls, who saw a 6-2 start to the year turn on its head with a 2-6 second half, one of the biggest collapses in league history. Brett Favre added 3 TDs and 287 yards to his league leads in both categories, and Deion Sanders pulled to within one of the league lead in picks with his 6th on the season as Birmingham took a moral victory in not finishing the year with a losing record.
TBY 27 ATL 34
Atlanta’s first year coach Bobby Petrino tried to find some solace in a strong Week 16 performance at the end of a very long 4-12 year. Aaron Brooks would throw for 4 TDs in the final game of the season, one of his best of the year, as the Bandits simply did not seem to have the energy to take the game. Randy Moss was able to get deep on several occasions, racking up 141 yards on only 5 catches, but overall the Bandits seemed ready to head to the offseason after a very disappointing 6-10 campaign.
HOU 10 NOR 24
New Orleans locked up the #3 seed and a home playoff game next week with a dominating win over the 4-12 Houston Gamblers, in an unflattering final game for Head Coach Ray Willsey. Houston will certainly be seeing a lot of changes in the offseason, while New Orleans, who was in Houston’s position last year, can now celebrate a return to playoff football under new coach Mike Nolan, finishing the year an impressive 12-4.
MGN 31 TEX 17
In the final game of the week, and the only one that did not involve any playoff clubs, Michigan downed Texas in San Antonio to finish the year 7-9. Tommy Maddox got the start for the Outlaws as Texas is facing the possible retirement of Kelly Stouffer. Natrone Means topped 1,000 yards for the Panthers, one year after being treated as a failed project in Jacksonville. Rookie Laverneus Coles played for the injured Jeff Campbell and showed some flashes, catching 7 balls for 94 yards in the game.
As we get ready for the Wild Card round of playoffs next week. Here are the injuries for the 8 clubs that will compete.
ARZ LB Winfred Tubbs (Out-collarbone)
BAL DT Michael Dean perry (Out-knee), DE Andre Wadsworth (Probable-thigh bruise)
LA FS Martin Bayless (Out-wrist), WR Curtis Mayfield (Doubtful-ankle), WR Rob
Carpenter (Probable-concussion), and TE Ricky Dudley (Probable-shoulder)
NOR TE David LaFleur (Out-achilles), FS Darren Woodson (Questionable-shoulder),
G Ken Blackmon (Probable-toe), HB James Bostic (Probable-knee)
OHI SS Harlon Barnett (Out-back), HB Eddie George (Out-foot), DT Tony Stephens
(Probable-finger)
ORL G Mike Verstegen (Out-quad), LB Dante Jones (Out-knee), FB Chris Fuamatu-
Ma’afala (Out-arm), QB Scott Mitchell (Doubtful-knee)
SEA T Willie Anderson (Out-finger), G Jeno James (Doubtful-chest), WR Chad
Carpenter (Doubtful-concussion)
TALE OF TWO SEASONS
What happened to the Jacksonville Bulls this year? How do you race out to a 6-1 start and then lose 7 of your final 9 games? Just what went wrong? Well, the first thing we have to look at is the defense, which allowed 23 points a game and was in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed. We should also point a finger at Chris Chandler, who may have thrown for 4,000 yards, but also finished with 21 picks on the season, a stat which plummeted his QB Rating down to 87.9, mediocre at best. With only Danny Wuerfel and Stoney Case behind him, Chandler does not seem to be threatened unless the club opts to trade him away, but he needs to play better if Jacksonville is going to get over the hump. The other big issue is the run game, which seems to be a concern worth exploring, especially when we see the success that Natrone Means had once he was shipped off to Michigan. Sedrick Irvin, thought to be the heir apparent in J’ville, did manage 902 yards this year, but that represents a 3.6 YPC average, and he only added 3 touchdowns to the Bulls offense. At times it was Kenny Bynum who looked more explosive, the 3-year veteran averaging 4.2 yards per carry and scoring 9 TDs. Could we see competition at the position.
The one player no one is criticizing in Jacksonville is wideout Terrell Owens. The brash wideout led the league with 165 targets, and finished second only to Terry Glenn (NJ) with 100 receptions. He added 14 touchdowns and racked up 1,478 yards for the Bulls. The problem may be that there is little else in the cupboard for the Bulls passing game. TE Steve Johnson finished second on the team with 62 receptions, while free agent wideout Patrick Rowe was the next best option at wideout. Expect the position to be one of focus for the Bulls this offseason, that along with pass rush and secondary help seem in order. Mike Vrabel and Lavar Arrington seem to be setting up a solid LB corps, but without more assistance from the D-line and secondary, there is not a lot a LB corps can do to shut down opposing offenses.
So, Jacksonville’s huge fade from 6-1 to 8-8 costs them a trip to the postseason and puts them firmly in the “retooling” category for next year. They are not alone in that category, but it certainly was not where fans expected to be as the club looked so good early in the year.
FROM CINDERELLA TO PUMPKIN
Chicago also teased their fans with a strong opening month, only to fade down the stretch. As with the Bulls, the rise of the Machine in the season’s opening weeks was also seen as a surprise, as most expected that Coach Mornhinweg simply did not have the talent in the Windy City to rise up the rankings this season. It appears that they were right. Jeff George was inconsistent, finishing the year with a pedestrian 85.4 QB Rating, and 13 picks to only 17 touchdowns. The Chicago receiving corps is nothing to write home about, with 2nd year TE Jim Kleinsasser leading the team with 75 receptions. Johnnie Morton does not appear to be a #1 wideout and Curtis Conway’s 58 receptions were well below what Chicago fans expected from the former Bear.
And while Duce Staley and Ricky Watters combined for a solid 1,577 yards on the ground, they scored only 11 total touchdowns between them. With Watters a free agent, this might be a time when Mornhinweg might opt to let the veteran go and put his trust in Staley, who has seemed to gain favor over the season. Finally, there is the defense, a defense that finished the year 8th in points allowed, a very good ranking for them, but was more pedestrian on some other key stats, 14th in yards allowed and 12th in producing takeaways. So, 7-9 and some work to do seems about right, but when you start the year with as good a first month as Chicago had, and when you see New Orleans keep the pace up all year it is hard to feel good about a 7-9 final record.
CLASS OF 1995 MATURES
Well, it took a solid 6 seasons to happen, but it seems the expansion class of 1995 has finally arrived (well, ¾ of it at least). Last season we saw the breakthrough with the reborn LA Express racing up to nab an unexpected Pacific Division title. This year the Express return to the playoffs, though with a much more modest 8-8 record. They are joined by two more 1995 expansion clubs as the Seattle Dragons made a serious push for their own Pacific division crown, ending the season tied with Denver but missing out due to tiebreakers. Add to that a strong 10-6 season from the Ohio Glory, making them the 4th club from the Atlantic to make the playoffs and you have three of 12 playoff spots occupied by Class of ’95 entrants.
Yes, building a winning team from expansion is a time-consuming process. The talent pool in expansion drafts tends to be made up of players past their prime and younger prospects who simply did not pan out for their original clubs. Sure, there is usually a smattering of talent that is freed up due to salary cap concerns, a Mo Lewis, for example, but generally speaking expansion clubs have rosters of cast offs, and that means they struggle. We certainly saw this with the class of 1995. We also know that it is not easy to start an expansion club as a head coach, and that certainly panned out, with none of the current ’95 clubs having the same head coach as in their inaugural season. Alanta (Reeves, Lewis, Petrino) and Los Angeles (Neuheisel, Fontes, Hall) are both on their third coach in 6 years. But, the tide seems to be turning, at least for 3 of the 4 clubs. Atlanta has yet to have a winning season and seem to struggle to build a fanbase as well in a city notorious for fair-weather fans.
Each club made mistakes along the way, signing players that simply did not deliver, whether it was Marcus Allen in LA, Jeff George in Atlanta, or Jeff Hostetler in Ohio. But, with solid drafts and a smattering of top free agent acquisitions, each has built a significantly better roster than they began with. Seattle, sitting at 12-4 is at the top of the class this year. After years of rotating QBs and a mediocre run game, this year Brian Griese took the helm, leading to the trading away of Jon Kitna, and Corey Dillon emerged as a legitimate top tier back. In Ohio it was Al Luginbill’s offense, combined with the signing of NFL quarterback Kerry Collins, that helped build a solid foundation for the team. Finally LA, after a miraculous season in 1999, is back again with their 1999 Rookie of the Year QB Cade McNown, their two-headed running game (Antowain Smith and Michael Pittman), and a solid defense. Coach Galen Hall seems to have found a winning formula in LA, though the team showed some flaws this year and comes into the playoffs as the lowest seed. In Ohio Coach Luginbill has created a team in the mold of many Atlantic clubs: run well, play defense, don’t let your QB beat you. Kerry Collins, despite having solid numbers, played a control game, and that control made him the league’s top rated QB in 2000. In Seattle, it was the emergence of Corey Dillon and a defense that simply did not make big mistakes, that helped them shoot to the top of the division and come ever so close to a division title.
All three clubs will be in action next week as the Wild Card round begins.
The playoffs are settled, with all 3 clubs that were in playoff position in Week 15 holding those slots through the weekend. Memphis wins the South thanks to their solid victory over Orlando, Denver keeps hold of the Pacific despite the close loss in Seattle, and St. Louis nabs not only the Central Division but the top seed in the Western Conference thanks to their win over Chicago.
The seeds will be:
EAST: 1-PHI 2-MEM 3-ORL 4-WSH 5-BAL 6-OHIO
WEST: 1-STL 2-DEN 3-NOR 4-SEA 5-ARZ 6-LA
So this sets up some interesting matchups for next week, with LA traveling to New Orleans, Arizona in Seattle, Ohio in Orlando, and a great rivalry game as the Blitz head to Washington to face the Feds for a third time this season. Denver, St. Louis, Philly and Memphis will rest their players, scout the games, and build their plans over the next 2 weeks, preparing for home playoff games in the divisional round.
The announced resignation of Ray Willsey in Houston, and the Week 13 firing of Marty Schottenheimer took a bit of the shock value of Black Friday away this year. But, that said, the day did not pass without event.
Texas decided that the up and down tenure of former Houston Gambler head coach Jack Pardee was not bearing the fruit they had hoped he could bring to San Antonio. The Outlaws released Pardee from his duties on Monday. In 6 years with the Outlaws, Pardee produced 51 wins to 45 losses, a winning record overall, but one that included three 8-8 seasons and this year’s 5-11 record. The Outlaws did go 12-4 in 1997 but slid back to 8-8 in 1998. They made the playoffs in 1999 with a 10-6 mark, but never seemed to be a serious contender this season. Team officials announced the departure of Pardee on Monday and a full search is expected for a new coach.
The second and final Black Friday decision was not another firing, but an internal realignment. Birmingham Head Coach Ron Erhardt has been given the opportunity to step up to the GM position with the Stallions, and has chosen to relinquish coaching duties to serve as both GM and President of Football Operations. Erhardt has led the Stallions to 88 wins and 56 losses in his 9 seasons with the club, including 6 playoff appearances and, of course, the 1993 league title. Erhardt will take over all personnel responsibilities, and his offensive coordinator, Kevin Gilbride, will step up to the Head Coaching vacancy, providing the Stallions with less of a transitional period than a simple passing of the torch.
The Black Friday results leave the league with only 3 coaching vacancies: New Jersey, Houston, and Texas. Many felt that there was a chance that Ray Rhodes may be another “one and done” situation after the Portland Thunder finished the year with only 1 win, but it appears that Portland ownership is willing to give Rhodes another year to prove he can turn things around. Likewise, fellow first year coaches Dom Capers (Oakland) and Bobby Petrino (Atlanta) seem safe from a one-year firing, despite not having strong showings in 2000. The other new 2000 coaches Mike Nolan (NOR) and Jim Mora Jr (PHI) had far greater success and are the two frontrunners for Coach of the Year.
Looking ahead, let’s take a gander at the four Wild Card Playoff games next week. While home field advantage should help the higher seeds, this round is notorious for upsets, so we expect at least one if not more of the favorites to struggle.
OHIO GLORY (10-6) @ ORLANDO RENEGADES (11-5)
Saturday, July 9 @ 3pm ET
The Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
This is a tough one to predict if only because both clubs are missing key players for this game. Ohio will have to go into the game without Eddie George, their Buckeye halfback. For Orlando the loss is QB Scott Mitchell, requiring that Craig Ericson take the helm in the playoffs, his first ever postseason start. Looking at the options for both teams, there is a slight edge for Ohio in that Darrell Thompson is certainly a serviceable backup for George, while Ericson has struggled to replace Mitchell at QB for Orlando. Ohio also has the top rated QB in the league in Kerry Collins (He edged past Favre in the season’s final week) and the league’s leading receiver in Joey Galloway (yardage). Orlando’s advantage is on defense where Chris Doleman has been eating up QB’s all season long. They also have solid coverage in the secondary with CB Deon Figures and SS LeRoy Butler.
OUR PICK: We are going to pick Orlando to hold home court as we think the Ohio D is not the kind to truly rattle Ericson, while Doleman could cause Kerry Collins all sorts of problems. Without George to take the pressure off the pass rush, expect a heavy dose of Doleman in the Ohio backfield.
LOS ANGELES EXPRESS (8-8) @ NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS (12-4)
Saturday, July 9 @ 7pm ET
The Super Dome, New Orleans, LA
This one feels like a mismatch. New Orleans has been the breakout team of the year (well, maybe Philly would beg to differ) and their defense has been just monstrous, allowing only 12.4 points per game. LA has been up and down all year, and their offense is hardly a world beater this year. They needed a Week 16 win over Portland just to qualify and they barely got that. New Orleans has the league’s top defense and an offense that is Top 10. LA is not in the top 10 on either side of the ball, and 8-8 seems about their limit this year.
OUR PICK: We have to go with the Breakers to win this one in front of a rowdy and very well-lubricated Super Dome crowd. That defense is just too good and LA has not had the same type of season as last year. They are 8-8 for a reason, a reason that New Orleans can exploit: inconsistency.
BALTIMORE BLITZ (10-6) @ WASHINGTON FEDERALS (11-5)
Sunday, July 10 @ 1pm ET
RFK Stadium, Washington, DC
This one will be fun. The two split their season series this year, and they both know each other’s tendencies so well that the key may be something as random as a big return, a blocked kick, or a poorly timed penalty. It is hard to say which club is more deserving of the win. Both bring in a backup who has played very well, with Scott Zolak throwing for 3,400 yards this year, while Baltimore opted to keep Jeff Garcia as their starter even after Trent Green recovered from injury. The two teams can run the ball, live off play action, and depend on their top tier defenses to keep the score low. Like we said, a balanced game, and should be a fun one.
OUR PICK: Las Vegas gave Washington only a 1 point advantage as the home team. That feels right. We are going to pick the Federals as well, but do not put the deed to the ranch on a bet in this game, it is going to be a true game of inches.
ARIZONA WRANGLERS (9-7) @ SEATTLE DRAGONS (12-4)
Sunday, July 10 @ 5pm ET
Husky Stadium, Seattle, WA
This one looks like it should be a Seattle win on paper, but there are two reasons why it is closer than it appears. The first is that very few of the players on the Dragon roster have ever played in a pro playoff game, and that includes QB Brian Griese. The other factor is Jake Plummer. He is simply an X-factor. The two Pacific clubs played only once this year, and Plummer helped lead the Wranglers to a 33-27 win. If he can have the type of big game we have seen so often this year, he can absolutely take over the game. But if not, if Seattle can rein him in, then Corey Dillon and the Dragon O-line can slowly erode the Arizona defense and wear them out.
OUR PICK: We are going to trust that Seattle has learned how to control Plummer’s rushing skills by watching the times he has been held in check. If it is a straight up game of passing only for Plummer, we think Seattle pulls this one out.