2000 USFL WESTERN CONFERENCE PREVIEW

For part two of our preview for the 2000 USFL season we are looking at the Western Conference. Once dominated by the Houston Gamblers, the conference has now seen 3 different clubs take on the mantle of Western Champions in the past 3 years, Portland, St. Louis, and Denver. None have found success in the Summer Bowl, and aside from one lone Gambler win, the West has lost 6 of the last 7 title games. Without a clear frontrunner, and with many folks still dubious about the Express, once again it looks like this year’s field is wide open in the West. So many questions remain about LA’s rapid rise atop the Pacific. How will Denver rebound from a tough Summer Bowl loss? Can St. Louis get a full year from Todd Collins? Is Texas finally going to finish a season strong? And what do we make of clubs like Arizona, Michigan, and Houston, who can look so good one week and so bad the next?

We will look at each team, but before we do, we want to look at the draft from each, finish our 3 Top 2 Bottom rankings by looking at defensive position groups, then look at each USFL Western Conference club and finish with our predictions (always dicey) for 2000 clubs, award winners, and the Summer Bowl in Tampa, Florida.

ARIZONA WRANGLERS

High Impact Rookie(s): OT Chad Clifton (Tennessee) may not be a day 1 starter, but we think that over time he will become a good one. Punter Shane Lechler has already won the job and safety Clifton Black (SW Texas State) has been a pleasant surprise.

Others on the Roster: Guard Travis Claridge should make the final roster, while DT Jerry Johnson from FSU could end up on the practice squad as Arizona is deep at the position.

The One that Got Away: The Wranglers try year after year to bring in a dynamic halfback and it seems that year after year they end up with Tim Lester as the starter. This year they used a 2nd round pick on U. of Arizona’s Trung Canidate, thinking the local connection would help, but he is off to the Rams of the NFL instead. So, once again they turn back to Lester to be their bell cow. It is an issue, to be sure.

CHICAGO MACHINE

High Impact Rookie(s): We love, love, love the signing of Brian Urlacher to be the next great Chicago linebacker. This New Mexico product is not exactly Butkis or Singletary, but the converted safety could be one of the fastest MLBs in the game. We expect the Bears are upset he chose the Machine over them, but ownership for the Machine was willing to lay out extra cash to make it happen after both Chicago clubs drafted the same player.

Others on the Roster: In addition to Urlacher, expect to see guard Bobbie Williams on the field, and small, but speedy WR Dante Hall should immediately plug in on special teams and in the slot for a Chicago club that needs playmakers.

The One that Got Away: Really not anyone they cannot do without. They would have liked to sign LB Isaiah Kacyvenski from Harvard (6th round) or K Paul Eddinger (9th round) but neither of those were essential.

DENVER GOLD

High Impact Rookie(s): DT Cornelious Griffin from Alabama will almost certainly be a big part of the Gold’s nickel packages as he is the fastest of their DTs from day 1. SS Matt Bowen and WR Danny Farmer will also get a shot to see the field, and look out for HB Rod Smart, not picked out of Western Kentucky until the 10th round. He has a chip on his shoulder. When asked about why other clubs did not draft him, he had only one thing to say, “He hate me. Man, he just hate me.”

Others on the Roster: DEs Junior Ioane (ASU) and David Nugent (Purdue) are bubble players on the roster but might end up on the practice squad.

The One that Got Away: This one likely hurts quite a bit. The Gold had visions of DE Erik Flowers lining up opposite Leslie O’Neal to create a 1-2 attack like the one we saw in Houston last year with Sinclair and Pittman. No such luck as Flowers opted to play in Buffalo, though the pick cost the Bills more than their #19 pick should have.

HOUSTON GAMBLERS

High Impact Rookie(s): No skill players most of you will see racing across the field, but Houston got good value from center Brad Meester of Northern Iowa and DT Alfonso Boone from tiny Mount San Antonio. Both look like solid contributors despite playing at small schools.

Others on the Roster: We like DE Alvin McKinley, though he is unlikely to get much time behind Sinclair and Pittman. CB Hank Poteat could factor into nickel and dime packages.

The One that Got Away: Houston wanted to add some depth to the run game but were not willing to use a top pick on it, so the one that got away is midround (5th) pick Paul Smith, a very productive back at UTEP.

LOS ANGELES EXPRESS

High Impact Rookie(s): The Express did not wow anyone with their draft, but they added depth to a few key positions. We like FS Tavares Tillman as a good passing down option and guard Mamula Savea should be part of their rotation. Not sure if 2nd round pick R. Jay Soward can crack a starting position. That seems optimistic at this point.

Others on the Roster: LA also signed TE Aaron Shea from Michigan, DE John Millem from Lenoir-Rhyme, and LB Kelvin Moses of Wake Forest.

The One that Got Away: First round receivers can often be among the hardest to sign, something about the position just creates inflated egos. Well, that seems to be what happened with Sylvester Morris of Jackson State. Coming out of a smaller school we did not expect it, or maybe LA is just not his style. He signed with the KC Chiefs, a very different club with a very different philosophy of offense.

MICHIGAN PANTHERS

High Impact Rookie(s): Ever since the retirement of Anthony Carter the Panthers have been looking for a gamebreaking receiver. They have Jeff Campbell catching all the short balls and earning first downs, but they just don’t take the roof off. They are hoping that Florida State’s Laverneus Coles is the man to do it. Michigan also snagged a very good strong safety in Nebraska’s Mike Brown.

Others on the Roster: Add OT John St. Clair, QB Spergon Wynn, and LB Orantes Grant to the list of Panther signings almost certain to make the opening day 45-man roster.

The One that Got Away: Not a huge deal, since Doug Flutie seems solidly entrenched at the #1 position, but Michigan had hopes of making the Wolverine faithful happy by signing QB Tom Brady. New Jersey slipped in ahead of them to pick the skinny QB just 4 picks before Michigan might have taken him, but it still feels like a missed opportunity.

NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS

High Impact Rookie(s): New Orleans, still reeling from Mike Ditka’s draft swap to get Ricky Williams, had only 5 picks this year, but they hope they got good value with the signing of #1 pick, CB Ahmed Plummer from Ohio State. They may have also gotten lucky when Wisconsin tackle Mark Tauscher dropped into their laps in the 6th round.

Others on the Roster: HB Troy Hambrick from Savannah State may make the squad just due to his hustle on special teams this camp. Other than that, we don’t see more rookies sticking.

The One that Got Away: New Orleans had 5 picks, and signed them all, but it still does not produce much.

OAKLAND INVADERS

High Impact Rookie(s): Oakland wanted to give Ryan Leaf a big weapon, and as predicted they did. Plaxico Burress could be a beast in the red zone for the Invaders. He is tall, can leap, has great hands, and a lot of swagger. Oakland also got a pretty good slot receiver and return man in Troy Walters from Stanford. A good draft for Ryan Leaf’s options.

Others on the Roster: Expect CB Dwayne Goodrich to see time in the nickel and dime packages. Another CB, Lloyd Harrison of NC State has struggled a bit more and may end up on the practice squad. Guard Jason Thomas is a good depth signing at the position.

The One that Got Away: They got their #1 and # 2 picks in Burress and Goodrich, but #3 got away. LB Marcus Bell of Arizona signed with the Seahawks.

PORTLAND THUNDER

High Impact Rookie(s): Mark SImoneau, the rangy LB from Kansas State, is a perfect fit for a club that is hoping to be faster on defense and more aggressive against the run. WR JuJuan Dawson may be a future replacement for Portland’s older receivers and should be a return man as well.

Others on the Roster: We like the look of DE Jabari Issa, but his on-field time will be limited this year.

The One that Got Away: Simoneau is a solid pick, and with Portland having traded their first round pick away to New Jersey, they did well to land him, but they could have gone after Lavar Arrington had they retained that #1. Choices have impacts, and the Thunder hope that Simoneau proves they chose wisely.

ST. LOUIS KNIGHTS

High Impact Rookie(s): The Knights keep doubling down on defense. This draft they landed two linebackers who we expect to see on the field quite a bit. Tennessee’s Raynoch Thompson is a banger, and Na’il Diggs from Ohio State is a steal in the 3rd round. These two will have an impact. The Knights also landed a starter in the 5th with fullback Sammy Morris, a solid blocker and good receiver out of the backfield.

Others on the Roster: WR Charles Lee, DT Ernest Grant, and TE Dustin Lyman should make the 45-man roster as rookies.

The One that Got Away: When Alabama LT Chris Samuels fell into the 2nd round for St. Louis, they must have known something was up. Samuels bided his time, was picked by the NFL Redskins and signed within 24 hours. We all know his agent had a good idea that Washington would make him the pick at #3 in the NFL draft and that is certainly a better deal than being a 2nd rounder in the USFL.

SEATTLE DRAGONS

High Impact Rookie(s): We love the pick of South Carolina DE John Abraham. He should be a menace for the Dragons from day 1. Great pick. The pick that confuses us was 2nd round selection of QB Giovanni Carmazzi. Yes, he was rated the 2nd best QB in the draft, but with Jon Kitna and Brian Griese already expected to compete for the #1 spot, what role does Giovanni have? Unless the folks up in Seattle know something about the future of the position that we don’t know, this signing is a weird one.

Others on the Roster: Sixth round pick Adalius Thomas, the LB out of Southern Miss, looks great in camp, and could be a rotational player right away. Other than that, we don’t see a lot of first year production out of this rookie class.

The One that Got Away: Seattle’s pick of Carmazzi in the 2nd round means they passed on other players like CB Rashard Anderson, S Mark Roman, or LB Ian Gold, any of whom would have had a bigger impact. But, if we limit ourselves to players selected but not signed, the biggest miss would likely be the signing of Auburn LB Marcus Washington by the Colts of the NFL.

TEXAS OUTLAWS

High Impact Rookie(s): 2nd round pick Chris Hovan, the powerful DT from Boston College is a great signing. We also like the late round signing of Michigan LB Dhani Jones. Two good defensive additions for a club trying to rebuild a championship caliber defense.

Others on the Roster: Guard Cosey Coleman and Punter John Baker will make the final 45. We are not so sure about DE Gillis Wilson.

The One that Got Away: Got to be 1st round pick Chad Pennington of Marshall. Kelly Stouffer’s injury last year showed just how fragile that position is, and Stouffer is clearly only 1-2 seasons away from retirement. There are questions about Pennington’s arm, but he is a smart, accurate QB who will now be doomed to mediocrity by signing with the NY Jets (You know that is true.)

3 TOP 2 BOTTOM

Defense wins titles, that is what they say. So who is well positioned to win a title based on their defensive fortitude and who may be playing catchup all season long. We look at 4 defensive positions as we explore the best position groups in the league and the worst, starting off on the D-Line.

DEFENSIVE END

#1 HOUSTON: Michael Sinclair & Kavika Pittman. Was their any doubt. These two monsters both finished 1999 among the top 5 in the league and either one could end up as the Sack Champion in 2000. Depth is adequate behind them, but these two rarely come off the field and have to be considered the best 1-2 punch in the league.

#2 NEW JERSEY: We are putting a lot of faith in rookie Sean Ellis to elevate his game as he finds himself on the same line as Phil Hansen. If he plays like he did in college, this could be an offense-crushing combo. If he struggles, Albert Fontenot is more than capable of playing well in relief.

#3 DENVER: Leslie O’Neil paired up with a punter would still be a top 5 defensive line. Now that Denver has brought in Marcellus Wiley, we think this combo could be special. Robert Porcher is also going to work into the rotation, so it is really a 3-fer on this one, and that hardly seems fair.

#23 OAKLAND: The combo of J.J. Wierenga and Eric Curry has just never produced the way the Invaders had hoped they would. Neither is likely to eclipse 10-12 sacks per year, and against the run they are just not holding the edge. Bad news for the Invaders.

#24 PITTSBURGH: Yup, despite being a very solid defense overall, the Maulers have this gaping weakness. Bob Kuberski’s best years are well behind him, and Jeff Howard has never had a strong pass rush, though he is above average on edge runs. Honestly, if the Maulers want to win a title, they might call up Denver and ask about Porcher as an option.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

#1 LOS ANGELES: A 4-3 has to be #1 on our list, and the best 4-3 interior line has to belong to the combo of Chester McGlockton and David Rocker in LA. And even if one of them needs a rest, when you can bring in Cletidius Hunt off the bench, you are not losing much. This group makes guards and tackles nervous on every play.

#2 WASHINGTON: Sure, a 3-4 means you really only need 1 DT, and in that formation Jerome Brown is hands-down the best in the business. His backup Reggie Rogers is more than capable, so we are calling Washington the best-suited for a 3-4 defense in the league.

#3 BALTIMORE: Another killer 4-3 lineup with John Randle and Michael Dean Perry lined up next to each other. We doubt this pairing lasts more than a season or two, with Perry clearly headed towards the golf course pretty soon, but who is gonna run against these two? Add in Randle’s pass rush ability and this is just a nasty combo.

#23 TEXAS: The Outlaws drafted Chris Hovan, and good thing they did. Without him their DL group might finish 25th in a 24-team league. Hovan is the start of something new, but he is untested and not helped out much by having Marc Campbell and Kimo Von Oelhoffen as part of his rotation. No Bueno.

#24 NEW ORLEANS: Not a lot of teams avoid the inside run against a combo of Jim Wahler and Leon Bender. They brought in Chris Maumalanga, but we are still going to call this the least intimidating DT group in the league (just not to their faces.)

LINEBACKER

#1 ATLANTA: I know it seems weird to say that such a bad defense has such a good LB corps, but in the case of Atlanta it is all on them. Mo Lewis was the league’s leading tackler last year because he had to be. But he plays alongside London Fletcher, Johnny Holland and Randall Godfrey this year and we think that could make a huge difference. Now, if Bruce Smith helps the D-line maybe Atlanta starts to play up to the potential of their LB corps.

#2 JACKSONVILLE: We might be jumping the gun on this, but we love the idea of LaVar Arrington lined up alongside Mike Vrabel, Jesse Armstead and John Solomon. Jacksonville will switch between 3 and 4 linebackers as they often play with a 5-DB look against the pass happy Southern Division foes. In a 3-LB formation there is nothing wrong with Vrabel-Armstead-Arrington as a sideline to sideline hunting party.

#3 MICHIGAN: Depth is the reason we put Michigan this high. They don’t have one huge impact player, but they can rotate in 6 guys with ease. Katzenmoyer is a rising star, Cowart is solid, then you have Hardy Nickerson coming back to his old haunts and Ted Johnson. Sub in Frank Stams for veteran presence or Anthony Peterson for some speed and you can play hard all day.

#23 PORTLAND: When a rookie is your best LB, you have issues. Marc Simoneau may turn out to be a solid draft pick, but Portland has to add so much more to this group. Bryce Paup is well past his prime and we just don’t see much coming from John Holocek or Joey Porter.

#24 PHILADELPHIA: Once known for their LB play, the Stars have left the cupboard bare as the years progressed. You now have George Koonce and Robert Gooch inside. Sam Rogers and Mike Crawford outside. Swell guys all, but no one is gameplanning around them.

SECONDARY

#1 DENVER: The Gold brought in FS Joe King from Baltimore to be the last piece in this mosaic of mayhem. Not the biggest names in the league, but when you can line up Bruce Pickens and Deral Boykin outside, bring in Todd McMillon in the nickel and back that up with Sean Lumpkin and now Joe King at safety, you have a really nice group that will pose all kinds of issues for offensive coordinators. Pair that with a good pass rush and Denver’s defense should lead the league in interceptions.

#2 BIRMINGHAM: Last year the Stallions would not have even sniffed the Top 10, but when you add Deion Sanders, the league takes notice. Deion will clearly match up against each club’s #1, leaving Torey James and Ken Irvin to deal with the next two. We also really like Darryl Williams at strong safety, and we are not put off by the relative inexperience at free safety. Deion changes everything for this group.

#3 ATLANTA: How bad is the Atlanta D-line, well, they have a top 3 secondary and the best LBs in the league and they still rank as one of the league’s worst defenses. The 3 Tyrones, as they are called, Tyrone Legette, Tyrone Poole, and “Tyronde” Barber are the best 3-deep corner lineup in the league. SS Robert Blackmon is also top notch, while FS Tim Hauck still needs to prove himself, but this group could be really dangerous if the Fire could just pressure the passer.

#23 MEMPHIS: The Showboats had some holes on defense last year, none more noticeable than in the secondary, and yet they did very little to address it in the offseason. Tebucky Jones is a solid FS, but he does not get much help. CBs James Fuller and Fred Weary far too often are out of position or fall too hard for double moves. In a division with Favre and Aikman, having a secondary this problematic, and now without Reggie White to rattle QB's, could be a disaster.

#24 OAKLAND: The Invaders are showing up on the wrong side of this list far too often. A weak secondary can make the D-line look slow, and a weak passrush can make the secondary look bad, but what do you do if both are truly bad? You lose a lot of games, that is exactly what you do.

TEAM PREVIEWS

CENTRAL DIVISION

Texas led the Central for most of the 1999 season, but as they do, they melted in the summer heat and the Knights snuck off with back to back division titles. Can they make it 3 in a row? Texas would seem to be the main contender, but Michigan and Houston both had moments last year and are hoping for more consistency in 2000. Chicago looks to have improved, while we are just not sure if Coach Ditka left anything in the cupboard for Mike Nolan to work with.

ST. LOUIS KNIGHTS (10-6, 1st in 1999)

COACH: Jim Johnson (6th Season)

WHY OPTIMISM: A very good team had a very good offseason. That seems to be the feeling in the Gateway City. St. Louis had what appears to be an outstanding draft, signing potential starters in LB Na’il Diggs and Raynoch Thompson, a good receiving FB in Sammy Morris, and a wideout who could be dangerous right away in Charles Lee. Add to this an already stellar defense, and an up and coming halfback in Ahman Green and the Knights could be looking for another title shot. Now, if they could just get a better stadium deal, all would be golden in St. Louis.

WHY CONCERN: Stadium deal issues aside, the main concern for the Knights is at QB. Todd Collins missed a huge chunk of last season, but the Knights persisted with Jim Miller at the helm. But, Miller is now gone and backup duties now belong to Rob Johnson. Yup, we would be nervous too with Johnson and untested Kris Kershaw as the backups to Collins. If he goes down again, the Knights may not be so lucky as we saw last year. OUR ASSESSMENT: Assuming Collins stays upright, we see good things for the Knights. Texas will pose a challenge, but we like the Knights to win their third division title in a row and make a run at Summer Bowl 2000 in Tampa Bay. 11-5 and a division crown is our pick.

TEXAS OUTLAWS (10-6, 2nd in 1999)

COACH: Jack Pardee (6th Season)

WHY OPTIMISM: The Texas defense is the reason for optimism in San Antonio. They are strong at all 3 levels, made stronger by the additions of LB Tedi Bruschi, rookie DT Chris Hovan, and rookie LB Dhani Jones. The defense will carry the day for the Outlaws, while Reggie Cobb carries the ball. That is the plan, and it could be a good one.

WHY CONCERN: And yet, we have our worries. Despite Shawn Collins’s breakout season last year, the receiving corps for Kelly Stouffer is one of the league’s weakest. Outside of Collins you have Jeff Query and free agent Darnay Scott wide, and the underwhelming combo of Kerry Cash and Frank Wainright inside. That is not exactly the Stallions’ receiving corps. Add to this some holes on the line and a less-than-elusive Kelly Stouffer and things could get dicey quickly for the Outlaws offense. OUR ASSESSMENT: Texas will live or die with defense, and in the Central that can work. It is what St. Louis does as well. We doubt they will finish below .500 or below 3rd in the division, but is that what Outlaw fans really want? We are going to say 9-7 and eking their way into the postseason.

MICHIGAN PANTHERS (9-7, 3rd in 1999)

COACH: Skip Holtz (7th Season)

WHY OPTIMISM: The Panthers were a pleasant surprise last year, but are retooling a bit this year. We are not sure replacing Wheatley with Natrone Means is a net positive for them. We do like the addition of WR Laverneus Coles in the draft, and we love the return of fan favorite Hardy Nickerson to the LB Corps. Visions of Nickerson blitzing are likely keeping divisional QBs awake at night.

WHY CONCERN: The corners remain a major concern for the Panthers, while rookie Mike Brown is now going to be asked to do a lot at the safety position. Add to this a 35-year old TE in Butch Rolle, and the usual worries about Doug Flutie’s erratic style, and you have a real mixed bag in Pontiac. OUR ASSESSMENT: We think the Panthers are repairing an airplane already in flight. While another 9-7 season is possible, we think 7-9 may be more realistic.

HOUSTON GAMBLERS (8-8, 4th in 1999)

COACH: Ray Willsey (11th Season)

WHY OPTIMISM: Houston started 1999 strong before slumping their way to 8-8 and a quick 1-and-done in the playoffs. As an optimist I would point to the immediate impact of HB Kevin Faulk, the depth at receiver with Perriman, Freeman and Dykes, and perhaps the scariest duo on defense in the league in defensive ends Michael Sinclair and Kavika Pittman. QB’s absolutely hate facing the Houston D-line, because aside from these two edge rushers they now have to face both Antonio London and Leonard Renfro inside.

WHY CONCERN: The Houston LB corps is just not as good as their front 4, so teams can beat Houston by using play action to freeze the line and take advantage of weaker positions behind them. That is a pretty standard issue, but the bigger one may be that it seems that Coach Willsey is taking a gamble at QB. Chuck Hartlieb has been adequate, but not very daring at QB over his tenure, and it seems Coach Willsey wants to try for a bit more flare. He has announced that untested Matt Hasselbeck will be the starter on Week 1. Hasselbeck came into the league with Denver 2 seasons ago and has yet to throw a single regular season pass. That is a huge risk, despite how he has looked in camp. OUR ASSESSMENT: Even if Hasselbeck is the next coming of Jim Kelly, he will need time to get up to speed, so expect a slow start for the Gamblers. It will be up to the defense to make things happen, and we never like when a defense has that much pressure on them. We are going to say that Houston takes a step back. 6-10 and looking to add some offensive talent in the offseason is our vision for this year.

NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS (7-9, 5th in 1999)

COACH: Mike Nolan (1st Season)

WHY OPTIMISM: I guess if you believe that Mike Nolan is a true offensive genius then you can be optimistic about the situation in the Big Easy. Or maybe you think Ricky Williams is ready to run for 2,000 yards? They do have talent on the D-line with Reese, Ahanotu, Wahler, and Bender. We love Lamar Lathon, and the safety combo of Devin Bush and Darren Woodson is very solid. But…

WHY CONCERN: Trent Dilfer? Really? We get that Coach Nolan was not a fan of Jamie Martin. A lot of dink and dunk from the former Breaker QB, but is the solution really to bring in Dilfer? Seems a huge risk for a player who most feel is a game manager at best. The Breakers are still paying for Ditka’s huge trade of almost 2 entire draft classes for Williams, so Nolan will be given time to turn things around, but we are not loving his first steps. OUR ASSESSMENT: Despite some talent on defense, the Breakers have a legit shot at being the worst club in the league this year. We are going to pick them to do just that, 4-12 and a shot at Virginia Tech’s Michael Vick in the 2001 draft.

CHICAGO MACHINE (6-10, 6th in 1999)

COACH: Marty Mornhinweg (2nd Season)

WHY OPTIMISM: The Machine had a horrid first half of 1999, but started to come together for Coach Mornhinweg in the second half, pulling off several big upsets and playing tough on both sides of the ball. They have a good HB duo in Watters and Staley, really upgraded at receiver by signing Curtis Conway from the Bears, trading for Johnnie Morton, and drafting Dante Hall. They still have some good talent on defense, a defense that kept getting better throughout the 1999 season. We like Eric Allen and Alan Grant at corner. We love Simeon Rice at DE, and Sean Gilbert can eat up space at DT. If potential rookie phenom Brian Urlacher can live up to the hype he is getting in the Windy City, the defense could move from solid to elite really quickly.

WHY CONCERN: Jeff George. There, we said it. If Coach Mornhinweg can make George a play action QB, the defense and run game could take this club far, but if he insists on being a gunslinger, they will again struggle with turnovers and 3-and-outs. That is it. The story in a nutshell. OUR ASSESSMENT: We like Chicago to keep playing hard, to win some close games, but also to blow a few that they should win. We think 8-8 under these circumstances makes a lot of sense.

PACIFIC DIVISION

No one saw LA coming last year. No one saw Denver going to a Summer Bowl. No one saw Oakland completely falling apart. What won’t we see coming this year? The Pacific has always felt like the weak sister of USFL divisions, and when we look at only 1 title in 18 seasons going to the Pacific, that sounds about right. But, there is optimism here, especially in LA, Denver, and Arizona, that there are some clubs who have turned a corner. Things look a bit bleaker in Portland, Seattle, and Oakland, but we expect to be surprised again, because if LA can go from basement to penthouse one year, who is to say someone else cannot make a move this season?

LOS ANGELES EXPRESS (11-5, 1st in 1999)

COACH: Galen Hall (2nd Season)

WHY OPTIMISM: After the Cinderella season the Express put together this year, the problem is not a lack of optimism in SoCal, it is the risk of overconfidence. Cade McNown had a fantastic first year, but was it a fluke? Tory Holt and Mike Pritchard were dynamic. Antowain Smith had his best year as a pro. There were a lot of firsts, and a lot of stars seemed to align. But, if we want to remain optimistic, it is the defense that seems to be ready for the long haul, another thing no one saw coming before last year. Vince Buck joins the secondary to add some leadership. David Rocker and Chester McGlockton are as solid an interior D-line as you will see, and Donta Jones is ready to break out this year at LB.

WHY CONCERN: What if it was all a fluke? I mean, look at the quick playoff exit. What was that? And while there is talent on the defense, the pass rush is mediocre, the safety slot is questionable with a rookie likely starting at FS (Tavares Tillman), and the rookie class has been underwhelming in camp and preseason. Is the clock about to strike 12 for Cinderella? OUR ASSESSMENT: LA in any other division might be picked to finish 3rd, but this is the Pacific, so we are going to say they repeat as champions. They have holes, but so does everyone out West. So, even though they are not scary on paper, we see 10 wins as a reasonable result.

DENVER GOLD (10-6, 2nd in 1999)

COACH: Dick Jauron (3rd Season)

WHY OPTIMISM: So close, and yet, so far. That has been the story for the Gold since their inception in 1983. They are the perennial bridesmaids. Always good enough to win 9-11 games, never good enough to bring home a trophy. 0-3 in Summer Bowls so far, and yet, the fans remain optimistic. This is a club with a dynamic QB, an explosive HB, and a defense that can play lights out football when it wants to. We could easily pick them to win the Pacific and no one would think twice. But are we ready to call them a frontrunner for a title?

WHY CONCERN: Denver has two big issues to face, one is self-confidence, but the other is perhaps the weakest receiving corps in the west. At both WR and TE they have issues getting open. They just lost their one big downfield threat in Odessa Turner, and they have not done a lot to add speed. Unless they feel that their secondary is impenetrable, and that pairing Leslie O’Neal with Marcellus Wiley will produce 40 sacks, the Gold should be concerned. OUR ASSESSMENT: Denver will miss Turner to be sure. They just don’t have much ability to score quickly, which in this league is a real issue. We think 9-10 wins is again possible, but then what?

SEATTLE DRAGONS (8-8, 3rd in 1999)

COACH: Joe Tiller (3rd Season)

WHY OPTIMISM: If you ask most fans how many wins the Dragons got last year, they would likely say 5 or 6. It is hard to picture them as an 8-win team because there is just not much hype about anyone on their roster. And that is really not fair to them. Levon Kirkland is a beast. Lomas Brown may be the best LT in the game. Corey Dillon is severely underappreciated. Oh, and the Dragons just traded to get perhaps the hardest hitting safety in the game, John Lynch. Add to this the speed of David Boston, the savvy of Takeo Spikes, and the raw power of DT Don Sasa, and there is reason for optimism.

WHY CONCERN: We have no idea who the starting QB is in Seattle. Is that reason enough to worry? We think so. Jon Kitna has not gotten the job done. Brian Griese appeared to be positioned to take over, but then why did the Dragons draft Giovanni Carmazzi (oh, and Tee Martin just for good measure too). You remember the old saying about a team with 2 QB’s not really having 1? What is the saying about a team with 3 QBs? OUR ASSESSMENT: Look, if they can pick a QB, and if that QB can finish somewhere in the Top 10 in QBR, then the Dragons look smart and maybe get over the hump. But that is a BIG if. We think 8-8 was a really good season for them, and would be again. We think 7-9 is a fair assessment until we know who their QB is.

ARIZONA WRANGLERS (7-9, 4th in 1999)

COACH: Art Shell (4th Season)

WHY OPTIMISM: After a great run in 1998, everyone was jumping on the Wrangler bandwagon, including us. And that made last season really disappointing. But, there is so much to be excited about. The trio of Pickens, Ismael, and Hines Ward is very very good, and should be even better with two new TEs in the game in free agents O.J. Santiago and Mark Bruener. The LB Corps is terrifying, led by Broderick Thomas, but with Winfred Tubbs and Barney Bussey also playing great ball. They snagged Aeneas Williams to be their #1 CB, a great move, and they helped protect Jake Plummer with a new OT in the draft in Tennessee’s Chad Clifton. All good.

WHY CONCERN: Well, after yet another attempt to get a star HB, we are looking at Tim Lester again as the starter. Lester’s best year was 1994 and it was only 695 yards. His BEST year!!! But does anyone think that either Kantroy Barber or Olandis Gary are going to overtake him? Honestly, if Arizona could just trade to get a true 1,000 yard threat, they would be a scary team. But it has not happened, and that is still a HUGE issue in Tempe. OUR ASSESSMENT: We make a big deal about the HB situation in Arizona, but they are a solid club. They could even win the division if they just throw on every down like Birmingham, but we don’t see Art Shell going for that. Without a change at HB, we think 9-7 and a Wild Card is the ceiling here.

PORTLAND THUNDER (6-10, 5th in 1999)

COACH: Ray Rhodes (1st Season)

WHY OPTIMISM: With the retirement of Vince Tobin, Coach Ray Rhodes inherits a team clearly in transition. Robert Drummond is gone, a retirement in his prime. They have a 2nd year QB who has yet to truly shine in Akili Smith, a receiving corps that has trouble getting open, and a LB corps that has been totally revamped, with 3 new starters, one being a rookie. Oh, wait, this is the optimism section. OK, We like Napoleon Kaufmann to play a role in the passing game, something Drummond didn’t really do. We also like the signing of Clyde Simmons for the D-line. And while we are not sure why they did it, bringing in Rick Mirer could help push Akili Smith or provide an alternative if he struggles again.

WHY CONCERN: You probably see the hints of why we worry in our optimism section. A lot is new, a lot is untested, a lot is shaky. It’s not a roster that inspires dreams of a dynasty. It is one that might offer some hope, or might need 1-2 years to find itself. OUR ASSESSMENT: We think Coach Rhodes will work these guys hard, and demand a lot from them, but we are firmly in the camp that the roster needs improvements for Portland to make a playoff run. We think 5-6 wins is where they will end up this year.

OAKLAND INVADERS (4-12, 6th in 1999)

COACH: Dom Capers (1st Season)

WHY OPTIMISM: Like Atlanta, fans in Oakland see only one direction to go, up. Unlike fans in Atlanta, they feel they have a star to latch onto. Plaxico Burress has become a media darling in the Bay Area since signing with the Invaders. He could help Ryan Leaf turn around his image as a falling star, or he could flame out as well. We think the former is more likely. Dom Capers is already trying to change things up, trading away perhaps Oakland’s best defender, SS John Lynch, in order to beef up the D-line, Oakland still has a lot of defensive issues. They may have to go against Coach Capers’s reputation for defense and try to become a high-flying offense with Burress, Marty Booker, and Ed McCaffrey making up for defensive issues. It works in Birmingham, right?

WHY CONCERN: Oakland is not Birmingham and Ryan Leaf is not Brett Favre. The Invaders need more from their running game, more from the TE position, more from Leaf himself, and they need a defense that can keep teams from scoring 30+ every game. It is early and Coach Capers will get 3-4 years to show progress. OUR ASSESSMENT: Progress may take 3-4 years. Oakland looks like a club that will need half a season just to learn new systems and how to play for Capers. Expect a long year but one that could lead somewhere better over time. 4-12 is our pick here.

SEASON PREDICTIONS

From our team projections you can certainly get a gist of what we think the season will bring. But let’s make it official. We begin with our projected division records and playoff teams, then we will stick our necks out and pick both a 2000 Summer Bowl winner and award winners for MVP, Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year, and both Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year. Getting it started, here is our look at the divisions as we see them.

This result for the regular season produces a very similar playoff pool as 1999, which means we are almost certainly wrong. Looking at the playoff matchups we expect to see Pittsburgh and Birmingham advance through to the Conference Title Game. There we are going to go with the underdog, expecting that Pittsburgh’s D is good enough to keep Birmingham from racing out to a big lead, and that means Terrell Davis can be a factor. We have Pittsburgh representing the East.

In the West, we expect a more topsy-turvy playoff and we are picking Arizona and LA to be the final two, with the Wranglers using their passing game to bypass the Express defense and make it to the title game in Tampa Bay.

For Summer Bowl 2000 we are going to revert back to the “defense wins championships” mindset, and we are going to pick the Pittsburgh Maulers to take the title over Arizona.

Looking at the award winners, we think there will be some close competition, but in the end we see these as the favorites:

MVP: Brett Favre (QB-BIR), followed closely by Heath Shuler and Jake Plummer.

OPOTY: Let’s go outside the QB position and say Terrell Davis of Pittsburgh. It still may be a QB, but we want to give Davis props for his role in the Mauler offense.

DPOTY: Sack masters tend to be the favorites, so we are going to go with Orlando’s Chris Doleman, with competition from Phil Hansen (always) and Birmingham’s Mike Rucker.

Rookie Of The Year: The easy call would be to say Ron Dayne in Baltimore, sure to be a big part of their offense, but we are going to go for a more esoteric pick and go with a riskier pick, LB Na’il Diggs in St. Louis.

Coach of the Year: Not a lot of big risers, teams moving from bad to good in one year, in our picks, which means that the COTY competition will be a tough one. We have Orlando’s George O’Leary getting some props as the Renegades continue to improve, but Art Shell in Arizona or Emmett Thomas in Pittsburgh could also be strong contenders.