2000 Week 8: Midseason Report

Midseason is here and while there are a lot of questions to go around, some things seem sure. Denver has a pretty good defense, evident in their shut out win over Pittsburgh. New Orleans may do just fine without Dilfer, especially with the D they are putting out there. Portland is not going to score on anyone. New Jersey is going to play hard but to no avail. And, don’t count out the Stallions or the Bandits as long as they have those offensive weapons. But, the first thing we have learned is that the USFL is damn near impossible to predict. Whether that is the sudden rise of clubs like New Orleans or Ohio, or the upset games, like the one we saw this week, where an angry Oakland squad just vented all their frustration on the usually tough Baltimore Blitz. We did not see that coming.

Not the closest game of the week, we had overtime in Chicago for that, but one of the most dramatic, and most unanticipated shootouts in a long time. Baltimore came in as a prohibitive favorite, 8 points despite playing on the road. Their defense appeared well-suited to shut down a floundering Invader offense. Meanwhile Oakland seemed a team on the brink of disaster. Infighting had appeared to divide the locker room, Coach Capers had not yet been able to bring discipline to the squad, and the signing of a potential rival for QB Ryan Leaf could either motivate the temperamental 3rd year starter or lead him right off the cliff. It is no surprise that many people expected a bloodbath.

What we got instead was a game where Oakland stayed close, then got huge plays from their defense to take a late lead, but had to hang on for dear life in the game’s final minutes. What we got was a game that Baltimore could not afford to lose, but one Oakland needed to win, and in the end the Invaders pulled off the big upset.

The game started much as anticipated, Baltimore took the opening kickoff and in only 7 plays had a score on the board with Ron Dayne running it in from 6 yards out. After two short drives ending in punts, Oakland found an answer, with Ryan Leaf connecting with rookie Plaxico Burress for an Invader TD to take the game into the 2nd quarter tied at 7.

Baltimore again took the lead, this time thanks to the right foot of Martin Grammatica, and again we saw both defenses play well, leading to several fruitless drives before Oakland got the ball back with 2:02 left and put a no huddle offense into motion for the 2-minute drill. The lack of substitutions hurt Baltimore, and when Leaf hit Ed McCaffrey for a score, the Invaders went into the locker room up 4, a surprise 14-10 leader at the half.

The third quarter saw both clubs trade scores, and again 2 lead changes as Baltimore got on the board thanks to a Mike Cloud run, followed almost immediately with Leaf hitting on his third and final TD of the day, a 21 yard beauty to TE Carlester Crumpler. Baltimore was shocked to find themselves down 21-17 after 3 quarters.

Oakland added to that lead with a Nedney Field Goal, and Baltimore, which had seen good success running the ball with Ron Dayne (21 carries for 129 yards) now started to shift gears, trying to score quickly. They did on their next drive, one almost completely based on Trent Green throws, as Green hit speedy Tim Dwight for the game tying score. Oakland could do nothing in response and after a 3-and-out, punted the ball back to Baltimore. But things were about to go south for the Blitz in a big way.

On his first play from scrimmage on their next drive, Trent Green tried to hit Cam Cleeland with a short crosser but it was tipped at the line and Oakland’s Kailee Wong snatched it out of the air, rushing to the corner and crossing into the endzone to put Oakland up by 7. The Green mistake was compounded on the next drive, when the Blitz QB tried to force a ball to Tim Dwight and CB Aaron Beasley was there. He jumped the route, caught the errant pass, and raced 45 yards for the second consecutive pick-six for the Invader defense. Baltimore was now down 14 with only 4:41 left to play. They would need to play some desperate ball.

After the kickoff, Baltimore tried to move the ball quickly, but a holding penalty forced them into a 3rd and 18, and they could not convert, choosing to punt rather than try a long 4th down play. The punt was shanked and only traveled 23 yards, giving Oakland the ball in Baltimore territory. Rather than sit on the lead, they went deep right away, and Leaf found a willing and able target in Plaxico Burress. In one play they made it to the Baltimore 2 yard line. One play later Siran Stacy had boosted the lead to 21.

A stunned Blitz club could be seen just jaws agape on the sideline. They were down 21 to a team that had proven an easy W for so many other clubs. The offense came back onto the field trying to do the impossible. Oakland went to a soft zone defense and that allowed Baltimore to move the ball and eventually get a Tim Dwight TD to pull within 14. A successful onside kick put some fear in the Invaders, who tightened up the coverages and forced Baltimore to move the ball more slowly, burning timeouts along the way. The Blitz would score again with just a few ticks on the clock, but it was too little too late.

Oakland had on a home game in front of a semi-hostile crowd of only 21,827, but it was a win. Baltimore had let one get away from them, and now fell out of a 3-way tie for first in the Atlantic. It would not take long for fans to blame Green and start clamoring on sports talk radio for Jeff Garcia to return to action. We doubt Coach Infante hears them as he has clearly stuck with Green whenever the IU grad has been healthy, but the Blitz cannot afford more of what they got this week.

PIT 0 DEN 31

What Pittsburgh got this week was humiliated. They ran into an absolute buzzsaw at Mile High as the Gold limited them to only 229 total yards while racking up 425 themselves. Rashaan Salaam rushed 21 times for 96 yards and Mark Brunell completed 15 of his 17 pass attempts as Denver controlled the clock, the ball, the field position, and the scoreboard in an embarrassing game for the Maulers.

PHI 26 ARZ 24

A good game in the desert as the Stars needed a final minute field goal to upend the homestanding Wranglers. New Wrangler Dorsey Levins got the bulk of the carries for Arizona, gaining 41 yards on 12 carries, while Jake Plummer contributed only 4 rushes but threw for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns. Philly had a strong day from backup Pat Chaffey as Stephen Davis was dinged up after only a couple of carries. Chaffey gained 84 yards on 24 carries, about 3 times his normal load, but a huge help to the 6-2 Stars.

NJ 16 SEA 19

I think we are all beginning to feel bad for the Generals. Every week they are so close and every week they come up short. Curtis Enis was able to match Corey Dillon, 113 yards to 119, and Jeff Lewis played about as well as Brian Griese, but the kicking game failed the Generals. Neil Rackers, the new Generals kicker after Vinatieri bolted to the NFL, missed on a 51-yarder early and a 38 yarder late in agonizing fashion, while Seattle’s Mike Hollis was good on 4 field goal attempts for the Dragons, and that got them the win at home.

MEM 26 TEX 23

Another hard luck team, Texas once again fell in a game they had kept close throughout. Memphis got a late field goal form Jeff Hall to go up 26-15, and while Texas was able to get a final minute TD, they still trailed and could not recover the onside kick. The star for Memphis was CB Fred Weary, who ties the league lead with a pick of Kelly Stouffer in this one.

TBY 43 STL 22

Tampa Bay took their show on the road and the change of pace seems to have helped them as they got their offense looking a lot like the 1998 league title squad, scoring 5 TDs on the Knights’ defense. Aikman threw only 19 passes, completing 11, but 3 were for scores, including a 46-yarder to Moss and a 48-yarder to Brooks as the deep ball was a huge part of the gameplan for the Bandits. St. Louis kept pace at first, but when Todd Collins went out with a possible concussion, Rob Johnson struggled to keep the offense on the field. The result was a 21 point loss and a big road win for the Bandits.

BIR 35 HOU 21

Houston did a decent job of pressuring Favre (4 sacks, 8 hurries) and Matt Hasselbeck did not play poorly (18 of 37 for 230 yards and a score) but it was just not enough as Favre was able to play pitch and catch with Lawrence Dawsey (7 for 143 and a score) and rookie Shaun Alexander looked good, rushing for 72 yards and a score as Birmingham pulled away late.

ORL 24 MGN 20

Orlando had the Panthers’ number on this date, forcing 2 turnovers and holding Natrone Means to a reasonable 64 yards on 25 carries. Scott Mitchell threw for 307 and three scores, including 2 to wideout Keenan McCardell as the Renegades win the close one to move to 5-3.

ATL 3 NOR 37

We don’t know what to tell Coach Petrino in Atlanta. It is just not working out, and certainly not when they face a defense that has still not allowed 100 total points this season. Atlanta gained only 160 total yards as Tiki Barber was held to 2.6 yards per carry, Marc Bulger was sacked 4 times, and New Orleans needed very little form Bobby Hoying to win this one. Az-Zahir Hakeem’s 102-yard kickoff return for a score would have been enough.

JAX 23 CHI 20 OT

The only overtime game of the week saw Chicago take Jacksonville to the limit before the Bulls pulled out the 3-point win with a Kris Brown kick in the extra period. Sedrick Irvin returned to action, but looked tentative, rushing for only 20 yards on the day. That forced Chris Chandler to carry the load, and his 2 TD- 2 Int game helped Chicago stay in it. The Bulls needed a Brown FG to send the game to overtime, and they added another to win the game, but this one was a close call for the Southern Division leaders.

WSH 17 POR 10

The Federals got wet in the Portland rain, but got the win they needed, thanks mostly to a combined 134 yards rushing from Barry Word and rookie Reuben Droughns. Portland’s D played well, picking off Scott Zolak twice, but Akili Smith again struggled to move the ball or put points on the board. Webster Slaughter left the game early with an apparent hip injury, and Napoleon Kaufmann rushed for only 35 yards as the Federals shut down Portland’s attempt for a late comeback.

OHI 38 LA 14

A big win for the Glory in this battle of 1995 expansion clubs. Eddie George had a monster day, rushing for 162 and a score as Ohio just kept pounding the ball and using play action to keep Kerry Collins upright against the LA pass rush. Cade McNown struggled a bit, completing only 13 of 31 passes and suffering 2 picks in the game. The loss pushes LA to 4-4, while Ohio is still co-leading the Atlantic at 6-2.

A better week across the league, but not without some impactful injuries. Seattle took the biggest hit as they may be without QB Brian Griese for up to 6-8 weeks (the entire regular season) after Griese injured his ankle as he ran out of bounds and into a bench. Seattle is expected to promote Giovanni Carmazzi to starter and will likely move their other rookie QB, Tee Martin, from the practice squad to have 3 active (along with John Walsh), but with the Dragons in the heat of a playoff hunt, what if Carmazzi struggles? Will they seek another option, a Spence Fisher or Chuck Hartlieb perhaps?

Texas will be shorthanded on defense as starting corner Jerome Henderson is out for the year after suffering a torn posterior cruciate on his left knee. In Atlanta, wideout Hart Lee Dikes could be out 1-3 weeks after separating his shoulder, while in Jacksonville Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Lavar Arrington, will likely be out this week as he is listed as Questionable with a wrist injury. Finally, as we mentioned earlier, Webster Slaughter, the venerable receiver in Portland, looks to be out only a week, maybe two, with a hip stinger.

For the Midseason Report we thought we would bypass our usual division between game-related stories and other “Around the League” news, to really focus on where each team stands at the halfway point of they year. We will take a brief peak at each club, what is working well, what is not going as planned, and what they might do in the second half. This will be followed by our revised picks for the 12 playoff teams and the eventual champion.

ATLANTIC

OHIO GLORY (6-2, 3-1 in division)

POSITIVES: The Glory have been outperforming expectations to be sure. Thei offense in particular has been much stronger than anticipated (2nd in the league in points per game). This is mostly due to the success of Eddie George, who is on pace for 1,400 yards this year, by far his best season. Joey Galloway has become king of the deep ball, averaging nearly 30 yards per catch. The defense has also been better than advertised (5th in the league) including 5th against the pass.

NEGATIVES: The rush defense still struggles, 22nd in the league at nearly 134 yards a game. That could play a factor as teams try to keep the ball away from the Glory offense. Kerry Collins is playing well, but his reliance on the deep ball means a lot of 3rd downs end up in 4th down punts.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: We don’t see Ohio changing much of what has worked so far, though it would not hurt if they could be more effective against the run, especially with Terrell Davis, Ron Dayne, Stephen Davis, Curtis Enis, and Barry Word all in their division.

REVISED PICK: They are tied for first right now, but we see Baltimore coming on, so we are going to say 11-5 and 2nd place.

PHILADELPHIA STARS (6-2, 3-1 in division)

POSITIVES: So much has gone right for the Stars this year, but we think the big win was with Jim Mora Jr.. He wanted to bring a new culture to the Stars and it seems that he has everyone on board, from newly acquired players to old veterans, the Stars are playing like a team. They are not the best in the league in anything, but they are playing well in all three phases.

NEGATIVES: The Stars’ defense is middle-of-the-pack, and that could be a problem down the stretch as the intensity increases. They have a good balance of run & pass but are not truly explosive on offense, so beware of shootouts late in the year.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: If Philly could add 1 more piece on defense, a true cover corner, they could be very dangerous, but getting a high quality corner out of another squad mid-year seems unlikely.

REVISED PICK: We like what we see building in Philly, but we are not fully sold that they can keep up this run of good performances. We pick them to finish 3rd at 10-6 and earn a Wild Card.

BALTIMORE BLITZ (5-3, 3-1 in division)

POSITIVES: The Blitz live and die with defensive strength and a clock-killing offense. They currently rank 4th in yards allowed, including a 2nd place rating against the run, and they are one of the best clubs in time of possession, so the formula is working.

NEGATIVES: That loss to Oakland is troubling because everything we say about Balitmore failed to appear in that game. It represents a 2nd straight loss and a 2nd straight game in which they have given up more than 30 points. That is worrisome, to say the least.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: Baltimore needs to settle on a QB. We think Coach Infante is satisfied with Trent Green, but his 3-pick game against Oakland is making the fanbase antsy. Expect them to turn up their blitzing as well after seeing what Ryan Leaf did to their defense this week.

REVISED PICK: We still like Baltimore’s depth, or maybe we are just stubborn. We see them going 6-2 in the second half, tying Ohio at 11-5 and winning the division as originally predicted.

WASHINGTON FEDERALS (5-3, 3-1 in division)

POSITIVES: The Federals have regained some swagger on defense this year, having kept 6 of 8 opponents under 20 points. They rank 2nd in the league in both points and yards allowed. That has been the formula that has won them titles in the past.

NEGATIVES: Losing Kordell Stewart early in the year has been rough. He is expected back for a lat season playoff run, but how ready will he be? While Scott Zolak has not been a disaster, his game is not as dynamic as Stewart’s and that puts more on Barry Word and rookie Reuben Droughns to carry the offense.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: A lot depends on when Stewart can return and how he will perform when he does. The pieces are there to possibly make a late bid for the division if Stewart can be 100% when he gets back on the field.

REVISED PICK: In another division, we could see Washington coming all the way back but even only 1 game back right now, we think a 4-4 finish could be about what Washington might expect, putting them at 9-7 and on the bubble for a playoff spot.

PITTSBURGH MAULERS (2-6, 0-4 in division)

POSITIVES: For a team seen as a championship darkhorse, not a lot has gone as planned. Despite an offense designed around 1999 rushing champion Terrell Davis, Pittsburgh is currently 20th in the league in rush yards. So, a positive, well, the run defense is still very solid (4th in the league) so that is a good place to start.

NEGATIVES: A longer list. The offense has not been scoring (19th in the league), and Terrell Davis is facing 8 or 9-man fronts every down since few teams respect Charlie Batch to get the job done. The defense, while good against the run, is giving up 330 yards a game passing. That is worst in the league and that means teams don’t need to run to win against the Maulers.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: Pittsburgh was simply not the club we expected, and Charlie Batch may not be the long term answer for the offense. The Maulers need to get more pressure against the passer, and need to do a better job protecting Batch or they will continue to flounder.

REVISED PICK: At 2-6, and without a divisional win, things look bleak. We think a 3 or 4 win second half is about all they can hope for, putting them around 6-10 for the year.

NEW JERSEY GENERALS (1-7, 0-4 in division)

POSITIVES: Curtis Enis is having a solid season, on pace for 1,200-1,300 yards, so you have that. You also have a club that is playing hard for Coach Schottenheimer. They have lost games by 3, 5, 2, 3, 7 and 8 points. All were within range, but all slipped away. So a few breaks their way and they could be in a much different situation.

NEGATIVES: Despite playing hard, the Generals are currently the worst team in the league in points allowed, roughly 30 per game. You are not going to win many games that way. Coach Schottenheimer recently took over defensive play calling, which we think could help a little, but what the Generals need is to boost the talent level on the defensive side of the ball.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: New Jersey has a brutal schedule the rest of the way, with LA, Jacksonville, St. Louis, and Orlando on the schedule along with tough divisional games. That is going to make things look bad for them.

REVISED PICK: Honestly, if they can get to 4 wins this year, that would be a major accomplishment. Fans are already eyeing over Class of 2001 draftees in search of the next Lawrence Taylor or Reggie White.

SOUTHERN

JACKSONVILLE BULLS (6-2, 4-0 in division)

POSITIVES: The Bulls were picked to maybe go 8-8 and be a longshot for a Wild Card, but Coach Cunningham has found some magic with this squad. They have gone 4-0 in division including impressive wins against Tampa, Orlando and Memphis. They have 2 losses, a 3 pointer to Arizona on opening week, and a weird 3 point loss to Pittsburgh. This could easily be an 8-0 squad at this point. They are top 6 in both scoring and scoring defense and have looked very much a contender in each game.

NEGATIVES: Sedrick Irvin continues to struggle with nagging injuries (currently a groin) and while Kenny Bynum’s 391 yards rushing in relief has been great, he is not a long term answer. 2nd year DE Jevon Kearse was expected to produce a lot of QB pressure, but has only 3 sacks at the halfway point of the year. More from him would be a huge help down the stretch.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: A huge game with Memphis next week, and then an up and down end to the year, but the Bulls seem ready for all takers.

REVISED PICK: We are going to admit that we did not see this coming, but that we are getting on the Bull bandwagon. We will say 12-4 and the #1 seed for this solid club.

ORLANDO RENEGADES (5-3, 3-1 in division)

POSITIVES: Orlando has grown into the season thanks to a solid defense and a surprisingly effective passing game. It surprises many to see that Orlando is #2 in the league in passing yards, but 2nd year wideout Donald Driver is becoming one of the toughest receivers in the game to cover. Add in effective receiving backs and solid TE play and you have a pretty balanced offense.

NEGATIVES: Orlando has a solid defense, and Chris Doleman has to be gameplanned every week, but they still give up nearly 330 yards a game on defense.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: Orlando faces both Jacksonville and Memphis in the season’s final 3 weeks, and those 2 games are likely to determine their final position both in the division and the playoff race.

REVISED PICK: We like Orlando, but we don’t love them to do something like run the table. Another 5-3 half seems possible, so we put them at 10-6 and a Wild Card.

MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS (5-3, 2-2 in division)

POSITIVES: Don’t look now, but the Showboats have won 3 in a row, including a huge win in Tampa. Top 10 in both scoring and points against, this is not a one-dimensional club any more. Heath Shuler is not putting up MVP numbers, but he is doing what the club needs to win. In a similar vein, without Reggie White, the pass rush is not the same, but the defense is finding ways to get to the QB in new ways.

NEGATIVES: While things look good for the Showboats, they are dead last in rushing per game, with Garrison Hearst averaging only slightly better than 60 yards a game. Depth may also be an issue as Memphis seems to depend very heavily on just a few playmakers.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: Next week’s clash with Jacksonville will tell us a lot. The Showboats also travel to both Birmingham and Seattle, and also face Orlando and Baltimore in the final 2 weeks, so their path to a division title is not an easy one.

REVISED PICK: That tough schedule is why we have Memphis finishing 10-6 and nabbing a Wild Card.

TAMPA BAY BANDITS (4-4, 1-3 in division)

POSITIVES: A lot of the positives for Tampa Bay are potential positives. They have so much talent on offense, we just cannot figure out where the magic of 1998 has gone (It cannot all be the loss of TE Ben Coates). Tampa Bay has solid talent at all the skill positions, at least on offense.

NEGATIVES: The defense is a concern. They are 18th in points allowed, 19th in yards allowed, and 23rd in passing yards allowed. Santana Dotson has a solid 8 sacks, but seems to be on an island with a defense that simply does not get off the field quickly enough.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: We think anything beyond another 4-4 half is tough to see. Tampa should be looking to trade for more defensive playmakers, but that may not happen until the offseason.

REVISED PICK: We are going to say 4-4 again, so an 8-8 finish, which will not make fans happy along the Gulf Coast.

BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS (3-5, 0-4 in division)

POSITIVES: Brett Favre is still Brett Favre, and there is a lot of talent in that receiving corps. Rodney Thomas has been a great free agent acquisition, and the offense is more balanced than in past seasons with him in the game.

NEGATIVES: Well, first off, Thomas is now out for the year, and Birmingham is not sure what they have in rookie Shaun Alexander. The offense is fine, but the defense continues to struggle despite the arrival of Deion Sanders. Birmingham is 17th in points allowed, in large part due to far too many short or fast drives leading to a tired defense at the end of games.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: Road games against Baltimore, Arizona and Tampa will not be easy for this club, andthen you add home tilts against Memphis and Jacksonville and that could easily be another 5 losses in the 2nd half.

REVISED PICK: 7-9 may be the best we can expect unless that defense finds its way quickly.

ATLANTA FIRE (2-6, 2-2 in division)

POSITIVES: Um, well…I guess…not a lot. Is that fair to say? We can say that the defense is not horrid, 12th in points allowed and 12th in rushing, so midling.

NEGATIVES: Ugh, that offense!! 24th in points, in yards, and in passing yards at 148.9 per game. Yup, less than 150 yards a game passing. That, in this league in particular, is not going to get the job done. Coach Petrino has alternated between Bulger and Brooks, but neither seems to show enough to merit starting full time. Add in a mediocre season from Tiki Barber and this offense is in big trouble.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: More pain and more losses, we expect. A big week 13 showdown with Portland could go a long way to determining draft order, if that is something you want to talk about.

REVISED PICK: 5 wins would be a boon right now. But when we look at their schedule, the game against Portland may be their only solid chance to get another W this year.

CENTRAL

NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS (7-1, 4-0 in division)

POSITIVES: What can we say? We were wrong about this club. What Mike Nolan has done is astounding. The Breakers enter midseason with both the #1 scoring offense and the #1 defense. They are first in both points allowed at a measly 10.5 per game, and in yards, with an equally impressive 228.2 allowed. They have been dominant on both sides of the ball.

NEGATIVES: The injury to Trent Dilfer is hugely deflating. While we expect the defense to continue to excel, the Breakers now have a lot less firepower on offense (Who would have thought we would be talking about Dilfer as a dynamic offensive weapon?) If the offense falters the Breakers could slip a notch, and in this division, that could give St. Louis a shot.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: The Breakers play the Knights in a couple of weeks. We should get a good idea where they stand in that game. After that Michigan and Arizona may be the only real obstacles to a division title and top seed.

REVISED PICK: Just forget what we said about the Breakers in preseason. We, like everyone else, were so used to the ineffective Ditka years that we just did not see the potential here for a quick turnaround. Right now the Breakers look like a potential #1 or #2 seed.

ST. LOUIS KNIGHTS (5-3, 4-1 in division)

POSITIVES: What was the famous Dennis Green quote? They are who we thought they were. That sums up the Knights. Defensive pressure and conservative offense is their game. They are currently 3rd in rushing thanks in large part to Ahman Green’s steady development. Bert Emmanuel continues to be a dangerous target, and the defense, while not as dominant as in past years, is certainly formidable.

NEGATIVES: Pass rush has been an issue for St. Louis, and that could mean trouble against some of the better quarterbacks in the league. Fortunately the Central Division is perhaps the league’s worst at the QB position.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: That big game against New Orleans. Lose that and the division is lost, win and the Knights have a chance to do what they did last year and steal the title in the season’s final weeks.

REVISED PICK: We think New Orleans is still too good this year, so it is a solid 10-6 and a Wild Card for the Knights.

MICHIGAN PANTHERS (4-4, 3-1 I division)

POSITIVES: In their 4 wins, the Panthers have beaten some good teams, Baltimore, St. Louis, and (maybe) Chicago). But in their 4 losses, we find a lot of inconsistency. When Natrone Means can get 25 carries or come close to 100 yards on the ground, the Panthers have a shot against nearly anyone, but if he is held in check, they struggle.

NEGATIVES: Michigan is middle of the pack in so many categories it is hard to identify strengths and weaknesses. They need to blitz to get pressure on QB’s, but their secondary is not stury enough to protect them when they do blitz. Not a great combo.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: A schedule with some potential wins (Oakland, Houston, Texas) but also some brutal games (at New Orleans, at Seattle, at Memphis). This could be just more of the same 4-4 football.

REVISED PICK: We think the schedule is not going to make life easy for Michigan, so we are going to say 7-9 is what looks most likely.

CHICAGO MACHINE (4-4, 1-3 in division)

POSITIVES: The Machine have overperformed, at least when you look at their stats. Their 3-1 start included good wins against Philly and Arizona, but their 1-3 streak in the 2nd quarter of the season showed they struggle against the better clubs, losing to St. Louis, New Orleans and Jacksonville.

NEGATIVES: The Machine are an enigma. They are in the bottom 5 clubs in passing and total yards, as well as in yards allowed and pass defense. That they are 4-4 may be a bit of a fluke.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: Life does not get easier with Denver, followed by a 3-game road trip. They do have a nice lineup of 5 straight games against sub-500 clubs (Texas, Birmingham, Houston, Pittsburgh, Oakland) but we are not saying that this will create a 5-game win streak either.

REVISED PICK: Honestly, 4-4 is a good possibility here, leading to an 8-8 season which is still better than we expected from this club.

TEXAS OUTLAWS (2-6, 1-3 in division)

POSITIVES: This is not the season the Outlaws expected, and they seem to be struggling across the board. The most positive thing we can say about this year is that at least Texas is not the Houston Gamblers.

NEGATIVES: The passing game is inefficient and not explosive enough, the run game is slow and the loss of Rodney Thomas has hurt their depth there. The defense, which helped them so much in 1999 seems overworked and too prone to giving up big plays. Other than that, they are just fine.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: Their 2nd half lineup of games is not a murderer’s row, with a lot of mediocre clubs there. They could steal a couple of upset wins in this lineup of games.

REVISED PICK: We think 5-11 or 6-10 is perhaps the most the Outlaws can expect unless things start to change quickly.

HOUSTON GAMBLERS (1-7, 0-4 in division)

POSITIVES: The Gamblers play in a dome, so Houston’s humidity is not an issue for fans. There, that is a positive. Ooh, wait, Kavika Pittman and Michael Sinclair are still dangerous, that is 2 positives. Good for you, Houston.

NEGATIVES: Pretty much everything else. You name it. If it were not for Portland’s utter futility we would be really shaking our head at the Gamblers. Bottom 4 in pretty much every major team statistic.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: Misery we expect. Another potential draft-impacting game in Week 14 when the Gamblers travel to Portland. Lose there and the top pick may be yours. Could that be Michael Vick?

REVISED PICK: Honestly, while finishing 1 game ahead of Portland would be something, it is not really a good thing.

PACIFIC

DENVER GOLD (7-1, 4-0 in division)

POSITIVES: This may be the best Denver team we have seen. Are they finally ready to shake off their reputation as also-rans? The defense is Top 5 in several key categories, including a dynamic season so far from Leslie O’Neil. The offense is Top 3 in points and 4th in rushing, a tough combo.

NEGATIVES: We are a bit concerned that the Gold are overworking Rashaan Salaam. He is 2nd in the league in rushing but averages less than 4 yards per carry. If he wears out, that could deeply impact the Gold’s entire offensive scheme.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: We think the entire division comes down to that final Week 16 game at Seattle. The winner of that could be all set up for a long and deep playoff run.

REVISED PICK: We don’t see Denver catching New Orleans for the #1 seed, the Pacific is too balanced for them to run the table. But, #2 with a bye and a home playoff game is very possible, again, if they can win in Seattle in Week 16.

SEATTLE DRAGONS (6-2, 2-2 in division)

POSITIVES: Seattle is yet another of the upstart clubs overperforming expectations. Corey Dillon is on fire, leading the #1 rush offense in the league, and Brian Griese has been a solid playcaller and game manager. The Defense is looking good, ranked 10th in the league and 2nd against the pass. Kudos to rookie John Abraham for a very strong start to his career with 10 sacks in his first 8 games.

NEGATIVES: It feels a bit like the talents of Eric Metcalf and David Boston to play the deep ball are being wasted with Griese at QB, and the trade of Jon Kitna means that Seattle is not exactly deep at the position. Now that they are likely to be without Griese for at least a month, that could be a real issue for the Dragons.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: Just as we said with Denver, that Week 16 game is vital to their potential playoff success. The next 3 weeks are also vital with St. Louis, LA, and Ohio all on the schedule. Not an easy run of games.

REVISED PICK: We like the Dragons, but not as much as Denver. Wild Card would still be a very good season in the evergreen state.

LOS ANGELES EXPRESS (4-4, 3-1 in division)

POSITIVES: When they play well together, the Express are a very solid team. They can run the ball, can win in the air, can step up on defense, and they have a very good ballhawking secondary.

NEGATIVES: But. When you are 4-4 there is always a “but”. For LA that but has been consistency. They just have not had it. They have yet to beat a team with a winning record (losing to Denver, St. Louis and Ohio), so we are just not sure how good they can be.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: LA needs to win the games they are expected to win, and a couple where they are not favored. It may already be too late to catch up to Denver and Seattle, but they absolutely could make a Wild Card slot with just a bit more consistency.

REVISED PICK: We like LA to go 5-3 over the final 8, which puts them in solid Wild Card standing at 9-7.

ARIZONA WRANGLERS (4-4, 2-2 in division)

POSITIVES: Jake Plummer. That is all we need to say. He has been at his best all year, a dual threat to run or pass the club to a victory.

NEGATIVES: Jake Plummer is having to do it all because others have not stepped up. The defense is 15th in scoring and 20th against the run, the run game is, as always with Arizona, a non-factor. We like the acquisition of Dorsey Levins, but unless he suddenly becomes Mike Rozier we are not sure he is the answer.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: Arizona needs to sweep their next 3 against weaker clubs (Texas, Portland, Pittsburgh) because things get tough after that. If they can be in range of the playoffs, finishing the season against Portland and Oakland could be enough to propel them to the playoffs.

REVISED PICK: Yup, 5 games against weak teams may bode well for the Wranglers. They also have a winnable game against Birmingham in the mix, so we are going to say 9-7 and they edge out the Express.

OAKLAND INVADERS (2-6, 1-3 in division)

POSITIVES: Despite all the chaos, there have been a couple of bright spots for Oakland. The run game is surprisingly effective, ranked #10 despite not having a true stud at halfback. The defense is adequate against the pass, but…

NEGATIVES: But, that may be because they are the worst run defense in football. 153 yards a game means teams don’t need to pass to beat you. That is negative #1, but the one getting all the press is Ryan Leaf. It is not that he is playing horribly, he is decent at least, but his attitude, and his hysterics every time Oakland loses are beginning to wear very thin with everyone, teammates, coaches, ownership, fans. It is not good when your leader is not leading but turning people away.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: No team on their remaining schedule is worse than 4-4, so if they want to win, they are going to have to play spoiler as they did this week. We expect a couple of upsets are in their future, but 2-3 at the most.

REVISED PICK: We think 4-12 is about right for this club. Top 5 draft pick but not Top 3.

PORTLAND THUNDER (0-8, 0-4 in division)

POSITIVES: It can’t get any worse, can it? Nowhere to go but up? Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes? That is the best we can do.

NEGATIVES: This team has a legitimate chance to go 0-16. That is where things stand.

WHAT’S AHEAD?: They have a two game stretch at home against 2-6 Atlanta and 1-7 Houston. If they are going to win a game this year, those are their best opportunities.

REVISED PICK: What if they win the game against Houston but lose out on Michael Vick by doing so? And if they draft Vick what are the odds he does not join the NFL instead? So maybe it doesn’t matter. Maybe picking 2nd and taking a solid DT would actually be better for them in the long run. A team doesn’t really need a QB, right?

The second half of the season starts off with a bang as several rivalry games within the Eastern Conference are on tap, along with a couple of very intriguing matchups out West. We start in the East where Baltimore and Washington both sit at 5-3 as they renew the War of I-95 in RFK, both 1 game behind Philadelphia. The Stars are also in a rivalry game as they head out to western PA to face the Pittsburgh Maulers. Pittsburgh was a preseason favorite to win the Atlantic, while most of us picked Philly for 6th place. Oh, how the times have changed. Finally, New Jersey hopes they can finally break through after several weeks of nailbiting losses, but they face Atlantic Co-Leaders, the 6-2 Ohio Glory, who are likely in no mood for charity this week.

In the South we have another 2 matchups that likely have significant playoff importance (even in Week 9) as Orlando heads down to Tampa Bay with both clubs hoping to gain ground with a win. Jacksonville, leading the division at 6-2, is in Memphis, where the Showboats are hoping they are on their way back to the top of the division. A win by Memphis would get them right there with the Bulls.

In the Western Conference, where the Central teams are hosting the Pacific Division, we have a really nice matchup of styles as Seattle (6-2) visits St. Louis (5-3). Will the Dragons and league leading rusher Corey Dillon be able to build up a ground game against that Knights defense? Hey, Dragons v. Knights, that is classic already!! Also worth a watch is Denver, taking their Conference-leading 7-1 record to Chicago to face a Machine club that started the season white hot but has faded of late. Arizona, sitting at 4-4, is hoping to get back over .500 with a win in San Antonio against the Texas Outlaws, while Michigan, also 4-4, has similar hopes as they host the Oakland Invaders. LA, the last of our Western 4-4 clubs, is in Houston, where the Gamblers are struggling through a 1-7 first half of the season. Finally, in a game that has potential to be a disaster, the 7-1 New Orleans Breakers, with their top-rated defense, are hosting an 0-8 Portland squad that cannot seem to score points on anyone. Could this be a huge blowout? Likely. The greatest upset in league history? Far less likely, but you never know.