It was Las Vegas's worst nightmare as we saw five major upsets all in one week. Not only did Atlanta get a shocking first win of the year against a clearly fading St. Louis Knights squad, in St. Louis, but Michigan earned their second win of the year by knocking off Memphis, Washington once again failed against a West Coast team, falling to Oakland, Arizona fell to Pittsburgh, and the Houston Gamblers lost to the Jacksonville Bulls. Just about the only favorites to win were Orlando, regaining their form, and Tampa Bay, who landed their fifth in a row.
Safe to say that no one saw this coming. Also safe to say that it may officially be time to panic about the St. Louis defense. The Knights’ usually much heralded defense has been struggling all season, but to give up 31 to the Fire? That seemed completely impossible just a few days ago. But, that is what happened as the Fire stayed within their game, avoided big mistakes, and just kept finding ways to score, eventually sending the game to overtime on a last second Jason Elam field goal, and then getting the game winner on their first possession in the extra period. St. Louis fans were distraught and you could see on the players as well a sense of disbelief as the Knights fall to the last winless club in the league.
Tiki Barber was the hero of the day (perhaps along with the Fire defense) as he rushed the ball 28 times for 163 yards. He would also score, but it was backup Mario Greer who got the biggest points of the game, the overtime TD to end it. St. Louis had its usual cast of stars, with Ahman Green rushing for 90 yards and Bert Emmanuel catching 9 balls for 128 yards, but the pieces just did not fit together for the Knights on this day. After trading field goals in the 1st quarter, Atlanta got the first big break, a Todd Collins pick deep in St. Louis territory. It was Tim Hauck nabbing the ball intended for Amani Toomer and returning it to the St. Louis 14-yard line. One play later, Tiki Barber made a great cutback move, lost the linebacker and scored from the 14.
St. Louis would narrow the gap with a 2nd field goal, this one from only 23 yards out as the Knights opted not to go for 4th and goal from the 4. That might have been a mistake as Atlanta took their next drive the length of the field, scoring on a Mario Greer run from the 10 after an 11-play drive. It was 17-6 Atlanta at the half, but most fans seemed to be feeling comfortable that their Knights would find a way back. When the third quarter ended with only 1 score, an Atlanta field goal to make it 20-6, the St. Louis fans started to get nervous.
It got better for them in the 4th, as the Knights scored on a George Layne dive over the pile to make it 20-13. This was followed by an Atlanta fumble that gave St. Louis the ball back in short order. They would score again, a Jabari Holloway TD reception, but somehow Ryan Longwell doinked the PAT off the right upright. 20-19 Atlanta. The Fire would add a field goal with 3:58 left to play, but that only pushed the lead up to 4 at 23-19.
St. Louis needed a TD to go up, and they would get it with 1:26 left on the clock, an Amani Toomer catch over the shoulder from Collins. But, with 1:26 left and only needing a field goal, the win was not secured. Atlanta moved the ball down field with one of the better drives we have seen out of Mark Bulger, and with 28 seconds to play, Jason Elam put the ball between the uprights to tie the game and send it to overtime.
In overtime, St. Louis got the ball first but failed to cross the 50. They gave it up to Atlanta and the Fire, seeing their first win in almost a full calendar year, drove the ball down the field with precision and perseverance. When Mario Greer sprinted left and dove for the pylon to give the Fire the win, you could see the collective monkey get off the backs of every Fire player. They would not go 0-16, an ignominious honor that is still held only by the 1991 Baltimore Blitz. Atlanta had found a way to win, and now St. Louis has to head back to the film room and try to figure out just what has caused their defense to fall flat so frequently this year.
WSH 30 OAK 35
While Atlanta’s upset was the most shocking it was hardly the only one this week. Oakland got a monster game from Ryan Leaf, coming out of the doghouse, as the QB threw for 324 yards and 4 scores to upend the Federals. Ed McCaffrey caught 2 scoring tosses and Plaxico Burress another as the Invaders just kept going deep on the Federal secondary.
MEM 28 MGN 33
The Panthers also got into the upset parade, winning their 2nd of the year by surprising the Showboats in the Silverdome. Drew Brees kept his composure, going 36 of 47 for 373 yards and3 scores, and Siran Stacy actually had a good game, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Memphis actually had the lead with 5 minutes to play, but Brees hit Laverneous Coles with the winning score with only 1:12 left on the clock.
PIT 37 ARZ 20
The Maulers round out the upset weekend with a big road win over the Wranglers. Terrell Davis rushed for 114 and Andre Rison caught 10 of 12 targets for 119 and a score. Eddie Kennison returned from injury and also had a good day, catching 6 balls for 44 yards and a score. Jake Plummer was contained all game, throwing 2 picks and rushing for -8 yards as the Maulers found a way to shut down the Wrangler QB.
ORL 27 TEX 24
For three quarters it looked like Orlando would also fall victim to the weekend of upsets, but the Renegades rallied for 13 points in the 4th quarter to avoid a 3rd straight loss as Keenan McCardell was unstoppable. The Orlando receiver caught 8 passes, 3 for scores, and racked up 121 yards in the process. Reggie Cobb was Texas’s main weapon, rushing 21 times for 126 yards in the defeat.
TBY 31 NOR 26
The Bandit resurgence now sits at 5 straight wins after Tampa Bay went into the Super Dome and knocked off the Breakers. Trent Green threw for 300 yards and 3 scores, including 118 to Randy Moss. The Bandits also forced 4 turnovers, including 3 picks of Trent Dilfer, with Samari Rolle returning one for a score to boost the Bandits to 6-5 on the year.
JAX 26 HOU 12
Houston blows their chance for a home win as they come out flat against the Bulls. Matt Hasselbeck left the game at the half with a stomach flu and that did not help the Gamblers as backup Brock Huard completed only 11 of 23 passes in the second half. Jacksonville turned to HB Kenny Bynum, who rushed for 130 and a score. Terrell Owens also played a pivotal role in the Bulls’ win, catching 7 balls for 153 yards and a score.
BIR 31 CHI 38
Chicago was down 31-28 with 7 minutes to play but got a Duce Staley TD run and a late John Carney field goal to take the home win in front of one of the bigger crowds we have seen for the Machine, 42,073 in Soldier Field on a beautiful summer afternoon. Staley had 2 TDs on the day and WR Curtis Conway caught 7 passes for 117 yards and a score. Birmingham, playing without the injured Lawrence Dawsey, struggled to make big plays against Chicago deep zones. Brett Favre would have 366 yards passing, but it was not enough on this day.
OHI 24 SEA 13
The Dragons struggled all game without Corey Dillon, and it did not get better for them when Brian Griese went out in the 3rd with a possible concussion. And while the Dragon defense did much better than most against the Glory, limiting Kerry Collins to 225 yards passing and Eddie George to only 23 yards rushing, mistakes cost them as Ohio scored on a pick-six and a punt return touchdown to take the win.
BAL 28 POR 10
Another QB knocked out of the game as Akili Smith left just before the half. Rick Mirer came in and threw 1 TD and 1 pick. Baltimore got much better results from Jeff Garcia, throwing for 234 and 3 TDs on the day. Seven penalties and a 3 for 15 third down conversion rate also hurt any chances Portland had to earn the win.
NJ 21 LA 29
A really fun game in LA as the Generals and Express squared off. New Jersey got 2 TDs from TE Anthony Becht and another from halfback Olandis Gary, but LA kept pace all day long, thanks to dual 93-yard days from Tory Holt and Brandon Manumaleuna, both of whom also nabbed a TD along the way. While Curtis Enis was the game’s top rusher with 81 yards, the combo of Antowain Smith and Michael Pittman for LA racked up a combined 123 yards rushing.
PHI 10 DEN 31
The Denver D was in synch on Sunday as they collected 3 takeaways against a sloppy Stars club. Rod Smart, in 5 fewer carries, outgained Rashaan Salaam 122 to 75, but that was a total of 197 rushing yards between them as Denver just owned the clock in this game. Add in TDs from Peerless Price and Dedric Smith and Denver rolled to an easier than expected win at Mile High.
CHUTES & LADDERS
Let’s take a quick look at who is trending up and who is trending down over the past few weeks. Some of these are obvious, others perhaps not.
GOING UP: Tampa Bay’s Offense, after a bumpy start to the season, the Bandits offense and new QB Trent Green seem to have found a rhythm, helping the club win their last 5 games. After averaging only 20.3 points per game the first 6 weeks, the Bandits have scored 28, 31, 26, 42, and 31 points during their win streak, a sign that they have found an identity and it is back to Banditball for this club.
GOING DOWN: St. Louis Knights’ Defense. One of the more feared defensive units the past few years, this season’s Knight D has simply not held up well. They started the year giving up 38 points in each of their first 2 games, but that was ignored because the O came through and they won those games. But this Knight defense has given up over 30 points in 7 of 11 games so far, an average of 29 points per game over the season. If they believe that Todd Collins and the offense is going to be able to compensate for that, they may be sorely disappointed.
GOING UP: Terrell Davis. Not that he ever was too far down, but in a tough year for the Maulers, Terrell Davis is clearing a path for himself to win the rushing title. He has gone over 100 yards in 3 of the past 4 games, including this week’s 114 in the upset of Arizona. He is averaging 99.3 yards a game on the ground, his highest average ever, and he currently stands as the only back over 1,000 yards for the year, with 1092, 118 yards ahead of Ahman Green for the title. Not a bad season for one of the best backs in the league and perhaps the centerpiece of the entire Mauler roster.
GOING DOWN: Chris Chandler. Yes, things have been rough for Jacksonville all around, but Chandler in particular has had a rough go of it. His 18 interceptions this year have him well on pace for his 3rd consecutive 20 pick season, and that is not a good thing, especially when we consider that he is off the pace on touchdowns as well, so the balance is not there. With Jacksonville recently trading for Jake Delhomme, this may be a sign that the Bulls are looking to move on from Chandler, which could be a retirement on the horizon or it could mean he is looking for work.
GOING UP: Denver’s receiving corps. The Gold have never really been a flashy team, and while Mark Brunell has always been efficient, the Gold simply don’t air it out much, but in their three game win streak, helping them get deep into the playoff mix at 7-4, the Gold seem to have opened things up a bit. Their primary receivers, Dedric Smith, Peerless Price, and TE Marco Battaglia have been finding openings in defenses and making plays. The YAC is still not perhaps what you see in Tampa Bay or Ohio, but the first downs are getting there. And what Denver is doing is also about balance. They don’t have a single target dominating the targets, with Price at 94, Battaglia at 86 and Dedric Smith (who missed two games with injury) at 67, they are spreading the ball around. They could still use some depth behind these three (Danny Farmer and Lloyd Hill are not really scaring anyone) but at the least they are beginning to use the passing game to open up defenses, making life easier for Brunell, but also for Salaam and Rod Smart.
GOING DOWN: The Breakers, in general. Sure, we could pinpoint one aspect of the club, or point out that Trent Dilfer’s injury was a major hurdle for them, but he has been back for a few weeks now and the Breakers continue to slump, losing their last 3 games. The defense is a shadow of last year, giving up 28.5 points per game and having difficulty putting together a pass rush. In the past 3 weeks they have given up 35, 48, and 31 points, not good. They also rank in the bottom 5 in rush defense, which means they are having trouble making the opposition one-dimensional. The offense is still top 10 in most categories, but that is yardage primarily, and if the D cannot keep teams under 20 the now 5-6 Breakers could see themselves fall even further behind in the playoff hunt.
GOING UP: Coach Marty Mornhinweg’s job security. After lackuster 6-10 and 7-9 seasons his first two years in Chicago, the curve of improvement seems to have taken a sharp upward turn for Coach Mornhinweg and the Machine. The Machine currently sit at 8-3, with a solid 2-game lead over a fading Knights squad. They have a defense that is forcing turnovers and stifling third downs, and an offense that may not be blowing away opponents, is controlling the clock and shortening games. The Machine have won 5 of their past 6 games, and could very easily become the first team to clinch their division. For those who had this as a make or break year for Mornhinweg, it looks like “make” is the verdict.
GOING DOWN: Jacksonville Bulls’ Head Coach Gunther Cunningham. After improving from 6-10 to 8-8 in his second season, this year’s current 3-8 record does not bode well for the Bulls’ coach. At best they could get to 8-8, but we don’t think anyone sees the Bulls going 5-0 down the stretch, which means a losing season, and very likely a 10-loss season in Jacksonville. And while many are pointing at the offense and QB Chris Chandler, the bigger issue by far for Coach Cunningham is the Bulls’ defense. Jacksonville is ranked dead last in points allowed, giving up 359 points in their first 11 games, nearly 33 per game. For a coach who came in with a reputation as a defensive guru, that is not good at all. Add to the fact that this is a club that has drafted for defense over Cunningham’s tenure, landing LB Lavar Arrington last year, DE Jevon Kearse in 1999, and both safety Ifeanyi Ohalele and DE Derrick Burgess this year, and you have to wonder what the issue is. The talent is there but the scheme clearly does not work. We are calling Coach Cunningham a coach on the way down, but more than likely he is now a coach on the way out.
Taking a look at the playoff standings after 11 weeks, we see that Orlando has regained their spot atop the East while the surprising Chicago Machine are in first on a tie breaker over LA in the West. Ohio and Tampa Bay are both on hot streaks with the Glory winning their last 6 and Tampa their last 5. Headed in the wrong direction are the Breakers, losers of 3 in a row, and both Memphis and Birmingham, losers of 2 straight. From the looks of it, the East is likely to have some teams out of the playoff picture despite having better records than the last couple of Western Division Wild Cards, as Portland and Houston are still right in the hunt at only 4-7, while 6-5 Birmingham, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay are currently on the outside looking in.
As teams make the final push with 5 weeks left in the season, injuries continue to be a concern around the league. This week Birmingham had to put their starting center on IR with a torn bicep, Pittsburgh DT Roderick Coleman also on IR with a hamstring, and Oakland made it official, putting Jon Kitna on IR, which means it will be Ryan Leaf for the remainder of the season. Add to this a lot of shorter impact injuries, and you have a lot of teams testing their depth. Among the 1 week, Doubtful and Questionable list this week we find Philadelphia LB Mike Crawford, Orlando safety Myron Guyton, Denver guard Tony Semple, Seattle QB Brian Griese, Portland tackle Kenyatta Walker, and Atlanta safety Adrian Wilson. Expected back in action are Chicago guard Solomon Page, Memphis HB Garrison Hearst, Washington tackle Melvin Tuten, and Michigan LB Andy Katzenmoyer.
We have spoken quite a bit in the past year or so about stadium deals, ownership issues, and potential relocation, but we really have not talked about attendance in quite a while, and since that is a big piece of the puzzle, we really ought to. So, first a quick chart showing each team’s stadium, capacity, average attendance from 2000 and through home games this year, and the percentage of capacity for each. I will then follow up with some commentary.
(There is one mistake here. Memphis should be listed as a Top 5 attendance leader in place of Tampa Bay)
So, what do we see here? Well, a lot of patterns we expected. Teams that have been solid performers over the past few years have better overall attendance than those that have been at or near the bottom of the standings. Teams in the south continue to dominate the top of the attendance leader boards. And a few teams may well be in stadia they will never fill. The USFL has been pretty consistently at or near 40,000 attendees on average for the past 4-5 years, so that is not likely to change any time soon. Playing in 60,000 seat stadia, as most teams do, means that most weeks most games have a pretty good crowd with some open spaces in the upper decks and in both endzones, but for clubs that play in cavernous stadiums like the Glory at Ohio State or Michigan at the Silverdome, the place can look a bit empty even when there is a solid crowd.
I think we all understand why Portland, Atlanta, and Oakland are lagging in attendance. In Portland even a bad average of 29,536 provides more coverage (87% full) at PGE Park than at most stadia, but the fact that the club is only pulling about 5,000 more than the league required 25,000 a year is a problem. The bigger problem is in Atlanta, where the Fire have one of the few stadia that actually is matched well to league average attendance, but the lack of quality football put out by the Fire means they cannot take advantage of Bobby Dowd’s size. So, what are the solutions? Well, for one, the pressure has to be put on some underperforming clubs to improve the quality of their teams, get some wins, and build up a fan base. Even a 1983 original 12 club like Oakland cannot draw fans if they are going to lose 10 or more games every year. Second, the league needs to work with partners when new stadiums are on the table to ensure that they are not building 80,000 seat monsters, but 60,000 seat venues that have amenities, suites, and other revenue-generating options. This is not so hard when it comes to cities that share clubs with the NFL, but for others it is a tough sell. Ohio, in particular, but also Portland, Memphis, and Orlando, are not going to have an easy time getting stadiums built, at least not with public money.
Finally, we should recognize the good news we have seen in recent years, that more and more often we are seeing the USFL and NFL teaming up to get a new facility built. Just in the next couple of years we will see the Gold move into a “New” Mile High in Denver, the Stars finally get an option other than the simply horrible venue that is Veterans Stadium, the Panthers move downtown into Ford Field, and the Dragons join the Seahawks in a new downtown stadium. Washington is still an issue because the Redskins are simply intransigent about sharing their facility, so RFK will have to remain the venue for the Federals for the foreseeable future. Portland is a problem we already know about, as is Memphis, and St. Louis is still not getting any love when it comes to stadium contracts now that the Rams are in town, but for clubs like Houston, where a new retractable roof stadium will support both the Oilers and Gamblers, the future looks bright from a revenue, and, we hope, an attendance standpoint.
Week 12 brings us another of our favorite scheduling gems, an all-divisional week full of regional rivalries. Let’s start in the Atlantic where all 3 games have major playoff implications. Philly (7-4) travels to Washington (8-3) in a battle of clubs still hoping for a division title. The other 8-3 club, Ohio, is home to the Baltimore Blitz, who do not want to slip back to .500 with another loss. In New Jersey, the 7-4 Generals are hoping to knock off Pittsburgh and possibly gain ground on either Ohio, Washington, or both.
In the South, the big game is between two clubs on the fringe of the playoff hunt. Memphis and Birmingham are both 6-5 and a win here would be a huge boost for one of them. They face off in the Liberty Bowl, so expect a very rowdy crowd in Memphis for this one. Atlanta, fresh off their first win, are in Orlando, where the Renegades have no desire to slip again. Finally, Tampa Bay can win their 6th in a row if they can get past Jacksonville. Expect a big crowd in Tampa for this one.
The matchups in the Central are not quite as engaging, as no two teams with winning records match up. 8-3 Chicago is at home to 4-7 Houston, 5-6 New Orleans visits 2-9 Michigan, and 3-8 Texas is in the dome in St. Louis to face the 6-5 Knights. An upset there and Chicago could have a 3 game lead in the division with 4 games to play.
Finally, out West we get a couple of interesting rivalry games. Both Denver and Arizona are 1 game back of LA at 7-4, and they face off in SunDevil Stadium in what could be a truly meaningful pre-playoff game. LA is at home this week against Oakland, who would love nothing better than to knock off their California rivals. Meanwhile the Thunder and Dragons face off in Portland. Both clubs are 4-7 but actually still in the mix for the playoffs. Consider this one a potential elimination game for the loser.