INTRO
Never let it be said we cannot admit when we are wrong. We put the Portland-Washington game in our "do not watch" category last week, stating that there was no chance for the beleaguered Thunder to go into RFK and knock off a 6-1 Federals team. I guess that is why they play the games. In what can only be called a weather-assisted win, the Thunder proved us wrong. Let's get right to our Week 8 game recaps with the big upset in DC.
What did we just witness? That was a result no one saw coming, the Thunder getting a road win at Washington? How did that happen? Well, it was a conspiracy of happenstance, at least that is the best answer we can find. First off, a bit of a fluky weather day, with winds gusting up to 35mph and on and off again rain. Not unusual for Portland, Oregon, but not your typical early May weather in Washington D.C.. Now, we throw in a still not 100% Deuce McCallister, and what has to be considered a really bad day from the Federal’s offensive line and what you get is a truly unforeseeable upset.
A look at the numbers and you would have guessed the Feds took this one by 10 or more points. They outgained Portland 414 to 268, were better on 3rd down (6 for 15 vs. 4 for 14), had only 1 turnover, and controlled the clock for 41:15 over Portland’s 30:30 (remember extra time for the overtime period. And yet, the Federals only put up 10 points, and needed a late Stewart to Herman Moore TD to tie at 10 in the waning minutes of the game. So what did Portland do to make this a game?
First, they did not produce any self-inflicted wounds, zero turnovers, and while 7 penalties in the game is not great, they were mostly penalties of aggressiveness (offsides, encroachment, defensive holding) not confusion. Secondly, they were modestly efficient on offense. Akili Smith completed 19 of 31 passes, mostly short dump offs, though he did have 1 long play to Lonnie Johnson. The Thunder also got rookie HB Correll Buckhalter into the game early and he got a lot of touches: 23 carries and 4 receptions. Finally, the Thunder found a pass rush. They got six sacks of Kordell Stewart. Now, 2 of those were clearly coverage sacks with Stewart holding the ball too long, but the other 4 were straight up defenders taking it to the offensive line. Both Clyde Simmons and Hugh Douglas garnered 2 sacks each,with Simmons’s final sack being the game-winning safety in overtime.
And, we really should give credit as well to the Portland special teams. Punter Aaron Broome averaged 48.4 yards per punt, and his 58-yarder in overtime dinked out of bounds at the 2-yard line, setting up the Thunder for the safety and the win as Simmons found Stewart in the endzone on an ill-advised attempt to use play action to fake out the Thunder defense.
Was this a masterfully-played game? No, absolutely not. Was it pretty to watch? Not even close. What it was, in this case, is evidence that on any given Sunday a game can go sideways and fool everyone. Portland moves to 3-5 with an unexpected road win and Washington gets their second L of the year.
ARZ 38 PHI 20
Folks are beginning to take the Wrangler offense seriously after another high total against another supposedly solid defense. Jake Plummer again was a one-man show, throwing for 3 scores and running one in himself as the Wranglers got good games from WR Hines Ward and TE Matt Cushing to upend the Stars in Veterans Stadium.
DEN 13 PIT 17
The Maulers get their third win and drop Denver to 4-4 as Rashaan Salaam sees only limited action and the Mauler D confines Rod Smart to only 26 yards on 10 carries. Charlie Batch was shaky, throwing 2 picks, one of which could have given Denver a late opportunity to score, but he also threw for 2 scores, one each to Rison and Jake Reed.
LA 30 OHI 38
In the shootout we all expected, Ohio got the edge on LA by building a 38-23 lead early in the 4th on a Joey Galloway TD. It was Galloway’s first game back after injury cost him several weeks and he responded with 3 receptions for 75 yards and the late score. Shaun Alexander was a good target for Kerry Collins all day, catching 5, with 3 going for scores. LA got 174 yards from Tory Holt as they had to abandon the run to play catchup, but it was too little too late for the Express as Ohio takes it.
OAK 10 BAL 13
Baltimore was on upset alert, but a late Martin Grammatica field goal helped them pull out a tough one in the same bad conditions we saw in DC. Oakland actually outgained the Blitz, thanks in large part to the scrambling and out-of-pocket throws of Jon Kitna, who remains the starter while Ryan Leaf pouts to the media. Ron Dayne was held to only 39 yards on a day when most would have expected him to get 39 carries.
SEA 10 NJ 34
The Dragons came out flat after weather delayed their flights to Newark. New Jersey took advantage, with breakout player Tom Brady throwing for 272 and 3 scores. Phil Hansen added 2 more sacks to his league lead, and Geno Atkins returned a pick for a score as the Generals won in all three phases of the game.
NOR 17 ATL 13
Well, the Fire played hard. At least we can say that. Outgained by New Orleans 471-187, this game could have easily gotten out of hand, but the Fire defenders went for the ball and that produced 4 Breaker turnovers to keep the game close. A touchdown from Tiki Barber and a pick six from Tyrone Poole were Atlanta’s only scores, while New Orleans managed 2 Raynard Brown TDs and a 37-yard field goal from Lin Elliott with 2:10 left to play that helped them win the game.
HOU 24 BIR 27
Close but no cigar for the Gamblers as the Stallions got just enough to hold them at bay. Brett Favre threw two costly picks that helped Houston stay close, but Shaun Alexander had a good game, rushing 12 times for 65 yards and two scores to help spur on the Stallions. Kevin Faulk had to leave the game with an ankle issue for Houston, so it was backup Kantroy Barber who had to step in. Matt Hasselbeck threw for all 3 Houston touchdowns, but it was one short for what they needed.
CHI 27 JAX 24
The Machine move to 6-2 with a nice road win, spurred by a game opening pick six from Eric Allen. They would add scores from Adrian Murrell and Michael Ricks on their way to a win. Jacksonville was without Sedrick Irvin, who had to step away due to a family crisis, but Kenny Bynum stepped in and helped the Bulls’ run game with 139 yards and 2 scores as Jacksonville kept it close.
TEX 10 MEM 41
The Showboats left little doubt that they had no intention of dropping to 4-4. After falling behind 7-0, the Showboats rattled off the next 34 points in the game, spurred on by the return of TE Adrian Cooper (2 TDs). Garrison Hearst was hurt in the game, and may be out next week, so Tony Carter and Larry Centers took up the slack as Memphis cruised to another home win.
MGN 3 ORL 43
As predicted, this one was ugly from the start. Orlando put up 23 points in the 1st quarter alone, 2 Amos Zeroue short touchdown runs, a Mitchell to Driver TD pass, and a safety as Michigan’s center got called for holding in the endzone. It did not get better from there as Drew Brees was sacked 6 times and Siran Stacey rushed for only 32 yards on the day.
STL 20 TBY 31
Don’t look now, but that is 2 in a row for the Bandits, and this was against a pretty good defense. Yes, Knights’ CB#1 Steve Israel was out, and that showed as Randy Moss and Chris Doering combined for 261 yards receiving and 2 scores. Errict Rhett added 2 TD runs as well as the Bandit offense came to life for Coach Seifert this week.
Eight Weeks in and time for our Midseason Report Card of where teams are compared with expectations. This year we are going to return to a standard A-F scale and see which teams are living up to the preseason hype, surpassing it, or failing to meet expectations. We will also take a look at the breakout players of the season’s first half and make some altered predictions for the end of the season. Let’s get started with the cream of the crop, the A students.
GRADE A: Surpassing expectations, excelling, impressing us.
ARIZONA: Sitting at 5-3 is good, having the 5th best scoring defense (despite a quasi-porous pass defense) is even better. They still need to develop a run game, but that is less urgent when you are at the top of your division.
CHICAGO: A 6-2 start is more than Chicago fans could have hoped for. Jeff George is over 2,000 yards passing and Duce Staley is on pace for a possible 1,00 yard season, but the igger story is the Machine defense, which has been shaky in recent years but which is holding most opponents under 20 points per game, and that is a good start for a potential division title battle with St. Louis.
LOS ANGELES: A 5-3 start is good,reviving a Top 5 offense is better, but having the 2nd best run game is a sign of good things to come. Add to this a Top 10 scoring defense and the ability to both pressure the QB and limit big plays and we have a team that could be looking at a division title if not more.
NEW JERSEY: A 6-2 start is far better than even the most rosey General fans would have predicted for Coach Parcells’s first season, and when Aikman went down in Week 2 the tone certainly turned darker, but Tom Brady has come up big in his first pro action, Curtis Enis has been solid all through the season, and Parcells has had a huge impact on the defense, which now ranks 2nd against the run and 3rd in points allowed. This club is a surprise contender and the tri-state area is catching “General hysteria”.
ORLANDO: 8-0 pretty much says all you need to know. Well, one more item to put fear in other clubs, they are averaging 33.6 PPG and giving up only 10.2. That is a 21 point per game margin for error. Their closest game so far was a 23-16 win over Tampa Bay. They shut out Jacksonville’s offense, and have given up 14 or more only 3 times. This team is clearly the odds-on favorite for the title this year.
WASHINGTON: We are going to forget that this week’s rain-soaked, wind-affected loss to Portland did not happen. If we ignore that glitch of a game, the Federals have been impressive. They have allowed 18.6 points per game, and they have found an offense based on the rushing duo of Rueben Droughns and rookie Deuce McCallister. The Federals are a dangerous club, especially if they can get consistency from Kordell Stewart.
GRADE B: About where we thought they should be, maybe better in some areas and worse in others than expected.
BIRMINGHAM: The defense has shown improvement (15th) and the passing game is its usual dynamic self (2nd in yards), but we still cannot help but think that the Stallions are wasting the career of yet another HB as Shaun Alexander is just not getting enough touches.
OHIO: We picked the Glory to win the division, so we cannot give them an A for meeting expectations. The defense is a concern, giving up 29.4 ppg, which is not good at all. They are outscoring people because they have the #1 pass offense and have found a viable top tier receiver in Chad Johnson. They now have 2 very dangerous deep ball experts in Johnson and Galloway, but they need to still give Eddie George his touches, and learn to work the clock a bit better so that their defense is not on the field for 40 minutes a game.
PHILADELPHIA: The Stars likely would have ended up as an A, except we were scared off a bit by the mistakes and blown opportunities we have seen. They are not Top 5 in any category except rushing, but they are solid across the board. Their losses have been to Ohio (a shootout), Birminghma (another shootout), and Arizona (giving up 38 points). If they can just keep teams from getting big plays that send the score skyrocketing, they could be a top tier team.
PITTSBURGH: This one we are chalking up to how they play. This is a club that in most games is competitive, and 3-5 is honestly better than we thought we would see. They are strongest in the run game and in run defense, and weakest against pass-heavy offenses, but we gave Pittsburgh a B because they are solidly on an upward path and may have what it takes to square things up at 8-8 by year’s end.
ST. LOUIS: Yes, a 5-3 start is solid, equating to 10-6 at year’s end, but the Knights’ big issue is that their stellar defense has not be shining at all. They currently rank 16th in the league in both points allowed and yards allowed. That is not a championship defense, that is a defense that is showing its age and missing some pieces. Ahman Green is still a dominant player for the Knights, but he cannot do it alone. They need more on offense and they need to find more consistency on the defense if they hope to claim a 4th straight Central title.
GRADE C: Just getting by, doing enough but not impressing.
BALTIMORE: We considered a D here if only because expectations were high in the preseason. 4-4 is not where this group wanted to be, but we have to give credit where it is due and the Blitz still score as Top 5 in both yards allowed and pass defense. They need more from Jeff Garcia as they are 21st in passing and 22nd in scoring, but the D keeps them out of detention.
HOUSTON: The Gamblers are definitely a much better club than they were last year, and Matt Hasselbeck in particular seems to be growing into a quality starter, placing Houston 4th in the league in passing yards per game at 297.6, but the run game is still MIA, and the defense, while solid (12th in PPG Allowed) does give up the occasional big momentum-shifting play.
MEMPHIS: Hear us out here. It is not like 5-3 is a bad record for the Showboats, it is that they have lost three games when they were favored. We can forgive the loss at Washington, but losing at home to both Philly and Tampa is tough to take. Maybe we are being harsh here. After all the Showboats are Top 5 in both scoring and points allowed, so they are very likely to be able to finish with double-digit wins, but something still does not feel right.
NEW ORLEANS: Sure, 5-3 is good, but look closer. The combined record of the 5 teams New Orleans has beaten is 8-32, including wins over both Atlanta and Michigan. They have lost to Washington, Denver, and Chicago, the only .500 or better teams they have faced. That is a sobering bit of info for a club that is not Top 10 in any category.
PORTLAND: We will confess that we pictured the Thunder being 0-8 or 1-7 at this point, so 3-5 is a bit of a shocker. The fact that those three wins are against Chicago, Washington, and Seattle is also a big plus in their column. Akili Smith is outperforming expectations, and while they are not a playoff club, they could reach a respectable win total this year, which moves them to a B because we did not see that as even a faint possibility when the year started.
TEXAS: We are giving the Outlaws credit for exceeding pretty low expectations. They have had at least one good win (vs. St. Louis) and they have been in some games where they had a shot late. They need more from their defense, especially in the pass rush, and they need Jeff Lewis to stay healthy (Tommy Maddox did not shine in relief). Maybe, just maybe, they can get to .500.
GRADE D: Headed in the wrong direction and causing growing concern among fans.
DENVER: For any other team, a 4-4 start is not that bad. Some clubs would love to be where Denver is, but these are the defending league champions, so a drop to .500 is a concern. The hope, of course, is that this is largely due to the suspension of Rashaan Salaam, and now that he is back they will go on a streak. Our concern is that the defense is not as solid as it needs to be to keep Denver at or near the top of the conference.
JACKSONVILLE: The Bulls seem to be fading fast after seeming like a popular darkhorse club as recently as 1999. The defense is the worst in football, which is surprising considering they have players like Lavar Arrington, Sam Adams, Jessie Armstead and Mike Vrabel on defense. We are 8 weeks into the season and the secondary does not have a single interception yet. That is insane, and not in a good way.
SEATTLE: This is a team that has been letting victory slip from their fingers all year. On their resume is a 1-point loss to Portland, a 7-pointer to Arizona, 3 to Denver, and two bad blowouts. Their wins have come against Atlanta, Oakland, and Texas, not exactly knocking off the big boys. They still have time to turn it around, but if 10 wins is what is needed to make the playoffs, which is very possible, that means they need a 7-1 second half. We don’t see this team pulling off that kind of run.
TAMPA BAY: This may actually be a D-. We seriously considered giving the club an F, and had it not been for back to back impressive and gutsy wins against Memphis and St. Louis the past 2 weeks, an F would have almost certainly been in the cards. If the Bandits of these past 2 game remain active all season, Tampa could actually rally to a respectable finish, but if they play like they did in weeks 1-6, it could be the end for George Seifert, 1998 Summer Bowl ring or not.
GRADE F: Nothing is working, this season is already a lost cause and it is time to clean house and look to the future.
ATLANTA: No surprise here. 23rd in scoring, 24th in total yards, 24th in yards allowed and they fired their head coach 7 games into a season. The Fire are becoming the model of how not to run an expansion club and the empty seats each week at Bobby Dowd are becoming a big concern.
MICHIGAN: The Mike Martz era has not started off well in Pontiac. The Panthers are averaging only 9 points per game, and rookie QB Drew Brees appears to be getting no help at all. Siran Stacy leads all rushers with 207 yards, yes, that is an average of 26 yards per game. That is pathetic! Add in the 23rd scoring defense and the worst run defense in the league. I wish we could say we see improvement in the 2nd half, but this club has a legit shot at 0-16.
OAKLAND: Expectations were not high to begin the year in Oakland, and the Invaders have been somewhat competitive even in games they have lost, but there are two big issues here that push them into the F category. The first is the inability to win close games. They lost by 2 to New Orleans and LA, and by 3 to Baltimore. They need to learn how to pull those games out. The other issue is Ryan Leaf. He was first suspended by the team, then benched, and now he is just making the rounds being a petulant child on sports radio and local tv. This is not going to end well for anyone.
REVISITING THE PRESEASON PICKS
As usual, our preseason prognostications were not exactly 100% accurate. That's football, folks. So, with 8 weeks down, let's take a second shot at this as we compare the preseason picks with our revised projections for the playoffs, title and season awards.
While we were not completely off the wall with our earlier picks, there definitely were some changes needed. We called it that Orlando would be very good, but overestimated Ohio's run, at least so far. We did not see New Jersey's rise being quite so quick, nor Baltimore slipping as much as they have. We also did not foresee Denver sliding quite so far back to the pack, and, as with the Generals, the Chicago Machine have surprised many this year.
We are still sticking with front-runners for our Summer Bowl picks, but now instead of Seattle and Ohio we are going with Orlando over LA. We are still going to go with Kerry Collins as the MVP, since he remains a top-rated QB on the league's top offense. Salaam's suspension kills any chance for Offensive POTY, so we are giving it to Houston's breakout star, Antonio Freeman. We still love Chris Doleman and this Renegades defense, but he cannot win Defensive POTY if Phil Hansen is 2-3 sacks ahead of him, and if New Jersey is a legitimate contender. Rookie of the year was always going to be a wideout. While Santana Moss has been great for the Wranglers, Chad Johnson in Ohio has been even better. Finally, our coach of the year, barring a total collapse, has to be Bill Parcells, proving he is still the king of the Meadowlands by turning around the Generals and doing it with an unproven commodity at QB.
A tough week with several players now concerned about a lost second half to the season. Texas is likely now without Shawn Collins for at least 6 weeks after suffering a stress fracture in his foot, only days after the Outlaws traded to get Carl Pickens. In Washington, TE Travis McNeal is likely lost for the year with a broken jaw, while in Arizona, tackle Matt Stinchomb could miss 4-8 weeks with a fractured tibia. Baltimore will likely be without DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamilia at least 2-3 weeks with a wrist injury and Ohio guard Lester Holmes is dealing with a hip injury that could cost him the same length of time. The weirdest item on the injury list is Texas kicker Tim Seder, who had to be taken to a local San Antonio hospital on Wednesday where he was diagnosed with a ruptured appendix. The Outlaws signed free agent Ryan Lindell as a short term replacement. Finally, Houston’s rookie wideout Koren Robinson is likely out 1-2 weeks as he deals with a bulging disk in his mid-back.
(A quick note before this section. In light of what has happened the past week with Dolphins' QB Tua Tagovailoa the story about Troy Aikman being forced out of the 2001 season by back to back concussion games seems a bit insensitive. I apologize for that, but, as you can see by checking the dates I published the earlier stories, this was a plotline in no way resulting from Tua's medical situation. Aikman actually did leave the game IRL due to concussions, and I wanted to present this in a dramatic way in the USFL. I am sticking with the original design for the story, and, of course, will be having the USFL deal with concussions and player health as we move through the 2000's into the present, because that is appropriate to the period.)
All the speculation about Tampa Bay’s announcement on Monday was a bit off topic, but then, who could have predicted this. Yes, the new logo and uniforms were revealed on Monday, but the surprise was the player who came out wearing #8 in the new gear, quarterback Troy Aikman. Apparently about 2 weeks ago, Aikman announced to the New Jersey Generals that he would be retiring from the game, but that he wanted to retire as a member of the Bandits. It took a bit of work, but this past week Tampa Bay and New Jersey came to an agreement whereby the Generals would trade Aikman back to Tampa Bay and the Bandits would agree to pay the Generals a sum equivalent to the signing bonus given to Aikman when he jumped ship, approximately $1.7M.
In the press conference, representatives of the league announced the trade, introduced Aikman, in new Tampa gear, and then announced that the entire amount Tampa Bay had negotiated with New Jersey was being donated by New Jersey to the Boston University Alzheimer’s Research team, helping them to form a special division focusing on cerebral trauma in athletes. Commissioner Ebersol and Tampa Bay CEO Carling Bassett announced that 1,000 special edition #8 jerseys, all to be signed by Troy Aikman were going to go up for auction and that all proceeds would also be donated to the BU center, to be matched dollar for dollar from the league as a whole. The auction is expected to raise between $500k-$100k in total, with minimum bids on the jerseys’ starting at $300 apiece.
Aikman will be on the roster, though not active for the game this week in Orlando, and then will be activated for Tampa Bay’s next home game, in two weeks, when they host the Pittsburgh Maulers. Expect tickets for that game to skyrocket in price as Bandit fans don’t want to miss a chance to say goodbye to their golden armed QB.
Week 9 starts the long 2nd half run towards the playoffs, and it starts with the Eastern Conference in divisional play, while the Central and Pacific teams clash out West. In the Atlantic there are two big games, the first a major rivalry between Washington and Baltimore, as the two clash at Aetna Stadium. Baltimore lost the first clash at RFK 17-13, and cannot afford another loss in division as they currently sit at 1-3 in divisional play. Another interesting matchup has Ohio headed to New Jersey in a battle of high speed offense vs. stout defense. The week also includes the latest in the Keystone Clash, with Pittsburgh headed to Philadelphia.
The best watch in the South will almost certainly be Tampa Bay at Orlando. The Bandits have looked much better in recent weeks, but the Renegades have simply been outclassing opponents each week. Memphis travels to Jacksonville and Birmingham visits Atlanta in the other southern clashes.
Of the inter-divisional games out West, the best game Is likely going to be the showdown between Chicago and Denver. The Gold are back home and not happy to be mired at 4-4, but Chicago (6-2) is on a roll and hoping to take over the division where they currently hold a 1-game lead over St. Louis and New Orleans. The Knights are in Seattle in a game that many Dragon fans point to as the bellwether for the year. At 3-5, a win puts them right back in the hunt, while a loss could be devastating. New Orleans is at Portland, and hoping to avoid the kind of upset we saw the Thunder pull off this week. Texas travels to Arizona, so a bit of a homecoming for Carl Perkins only 2 weeks after being traded. Houston heads to LA in hopes of pulling themselves back into a playoff hunt, and in a game that may be one of Michigan’s best shots to avoid an 0-16 season, the Panthers have a late afternoon game in Oakland on Saturday.