Wildcard weekend, and in a season that saw more parity than disparity among teams, this is a weekend that can spark a team to a deep playoff run. Eight teams still have hope this season for a title, though most of the world fully expects it all to come down to whether or not anyone can match the unbeaten Ohio Glory. Can one of these teams be the one to knock off the team that many are calling the best in league history? We won’t know this week, but we have found out which four teams are still alive to take their shot.
The first of the four Wild Card games was indisputably the best game of the weekend. Orlando and New Jersey battled all game, the lead changing 4 times as Orlando could not put away the Northeast Division Champ despite building a leads on 3 separate occasions. Orlando would cough the ball up 5 times in this game, and that alone should have doomed them, and yet they were in it until the final seconds as New Jersey came back from an 11-point deficit in the final minutes to take the win.
Joey Harrington began well, but was clearly overwhelmed as the pressure mounted late in the game, throwing 5 picks on the day, 4 in the second half. Tom brady, for his part, played a relatively clean game, throwing 3 touchdowns and only picked once on a deflected ball. New Jersey got the ball to Terry Glenn 9 times for 123 yards, but also found good targets in Donald Hayes and Anthony Becht. Orlando relied a bit more on the run game, but Donald Driver and Keenan McCardell both finished with more than 85 yards receiving.
The game was tied twice in the second quarter, first at 10, after R. J. Redmond scored for Orlando and Terry Glenn snagged a 29-yard TD pass from Brady, but there would be much more action in the half. Harrington hit John Henry Mills for a 2 yard TD pass to put Orlando up 7, but New Jersey would answer with Brady hitting Donald Hayes just before the 2-minute warning. With a classic final drive, Harrington would lead Orlando down the field, capping off the half with a TD toss to Driver. Orlando led at the break 24-17.
There was no scoring in the 3rd quarter as both Brady and Harrington threw picks that ended potential scoring drives, but early in the 4th New Jersey would add a field goal to pull within 4. Orlando responded immediately with a 104-yard kick return from Jabar Gaffney. It would be the last score of the day as on both of Orlando’s next and last 2 drives, Harrington would get picked, once by LB Bobby Houston and again by defensive player of the game Otis Smith (2 picks on the day). Down 31-20 after the kick return, New Jersey responded and with 3:59 left, Olandis Gary pulled them within 3 with a 2-yard run followed by a 2-point conversion.
New Jersey would line up for a deep kick with just inside of 4 minutes left in the game and Orlando failed to put their hands team on the field. When Neil Rackers clipped the ball towards the far sideline, Orlando was caught flat-footed. New Jersey recovered the ball and Coach Parcells proved again that he is a brilliant strategist. Now, down only 3 and with all 3 timeouts left, the Generals took their time, moving the ball with short passes, screens, and runs by Enis and Gary. It was Curtis Enis who would put New Jersey on top for good, snagging a swing pass from Brady for a score that gave the Generals the 35-31 final score and help them move on to a date with Jacksonville next week.
The second game on Saturday was all New Orleans early, and while Arizona fought back, the Breakers never relinquished their early lead, moving from 7-0 up to 24-6 at the half, 31-13 after 3 and finally 31-23 as the final whistle blew. Trent Dilfer was the offensive POTG, completing 19 of 25 and tossing 4 touchdowns against the Wrangler defense. The defensive POTG was DE Chidi Ahonotu, but really it should have been the entire front 7 of New Orleans, a front seven that simply would not let Jake Plummer beat them with his feet. He scrambled or ran 12 times, but gained only 30 yards on the day. That was still more than the entire HB group for the Wranglers, and profoundly less than the two main backs for the Breakers. Ricky Williams finished the game with 63 yards while Troy Davis rushed 8 times for 72 yards, including a brilliant spinning, juking 40-yard run.
New Orleans got 14 in the first quarter to put space between themselves and the Wranglers, with Dilfer connecting once with Josh Reed and then with Kevin Dyson. It had been thought that the Breakers would suffer without Raynard Brown, their leading receiver, available for the game, but Reed, Dyson, and TE Steve Johnson were more than up to the task, catching a combined 16 balls for 203 yards. Reed would catch a 2nd TD in the 2nd quarter, boosting the Breaker lead to 21 and putting the fans in the Dome into a frenzy. From there it was a matter of keeping up the pressure on Plummer and the Wranglers.
Arizona would eventually get the score closer, but they were never a true threat to New Orleans. The Breakers used the run game to build up a 34:30-25:30 time of possession advantage and just did not provide Plummer with enough opportunities to pull off a miracle comeback. With the win, the Breakers advance to play their new division rival, Memphis in the Divisional Round.
Sunday’s opener was closer than the score indicated, at least through 3 quarters. Washington actually led at the half 12-10, thanks to a safety in the final minute of the half when Chicago HB Duce Staley misplayed a handoff and had to fall on the ball within his own endzone to avoid a defensive TD.
Chicago would rebound in the second half, thanks to some good adjustments that created better running lanes for Staley, and the back recovered as well, gaining 81 of his 109 yards on the day in the second half. Washington would be held scoreless in the second half, thanks largely to a defense that simply did not give up the big play and dared Kordell Stewart to consistently convert third downs. Washington would convert only 2 of 12 and that helped Chicago slowly build up the score, first with a Curtis Conway TD, then two field goals, and finally with George hitting TE Jim Kliensasser from 23 yards out to build up the 18 point final margin. For Washington, a big disappointment as they were viewed as a potential contender despite being a Wild Card, while for Chicago the combination of smothering defense and capable offense both on the ground and in the air bodes well as they prepare to face a huge task next week, a 3rd game against the 14-0 Ohio Glory in what looks to be a very hostile Ohio Stadium.
The final game of the week produced the week’s only upset as Pacific Division Champ was a 3.5 point underdog at home to the Nashville Knights. Apparently the Thunder took offense at the estimations of the Las Vegas book, and they took that frustration out on the Knights. Midway through the 2nd quarter Nashville took a 14-7 lead, but a switch was turned on within the Thunder and they simply shut the door on Nashville the rest of the way. Portland defenders picked Todd Collins off twice and sacked him 4 times in the 2nd half, while the Rick Mirer-led offense looked dynamic and dangerous against a pretty solid Knight defense. Mirer would finish the game with 267 yards and 4 touchdowns, including 2 to Matthew Hatchette, as the Thunder pulled away and won handily over the favored Knights.
It will not get easier for Portland next week as they lose their home field advantage and travel to Houston to face the Gamblers in the Divisional Round. Once again they will be an underdog in that game, but they won’t have their home fans to support them in Space City.
Since the biggest stories this week are in our game recaps or leaguewide issues in our Around the USFL second, we are going to dedicate our News & Notes to stories about player movement as we enter the offseason for 12 clubs. This week we look at the 12 non-playoff teams and their positions of greatest need. We will do so in the order of the draft 1-12.
1. BOSTON (Atlanta) 3-11
The former Atlanta Fire had a ton of needs even before free agency. Offensive weapons, particularly at wideout and tight end, line help, defensive line depth, you name it. But, with a few key retirements and several free agents that list gets just a bit longer. We still think WR is the top need as a starting trio of Terrance Mathis, Joe Jurevicious, and Chris Calloway is not going to do it. Wayne Chrebet is gone in free agency, as is Sanjay Beach, not that they did enough this year to merit a new deal. Expect Boston to look for wideout early in the draft. Their territorial schools of BC, Georgia (a holdover from Atlanta) and UMass are not going to get it done, but they could either trade for a top receiver, using their #1 pick as bait to entice Michigan or Tampa Bay to give up the rights to either MSU’s Charles Rogers or Miami’s Andre Johnson.
2. PHILADELPHIA 3-11
You know what we are going to say, right? It’s QB. Clearly that is the top priority. Philly resigned Will Furrer but no one expects him to be the starter in 2003, so they have to either sign a free agent (USFL or NFL) or take a shot at a huge prospect like USC’s Carson Palmer. Trading with the LA Express for that top territorial pick would get them Palmer, if he will sign, but they could also take their chances that teams like LA (Palmer), Washington (Marshall’s Byron Leftwich) or Oakland (Cal’s Kyle Boller) are not in the market for a QB, allowing Philly to use their #2 Open Draft pick to snag one of these potential top picks.
3. SEATTLE (4-10)
Seattle has not, as of yet, had any significant retirements, and the free agents who are leaving are all in backup positions, so the Dragons are in a good position to focus on upgrades rather than patching holes. So what positions have the most need for an upgrade? While some fans might point at QB, Brian Griese has been effective when healthy, so we don’t see this as a position of immediate need. The two areas where there is a clear need to get better performance is at cornerback and at right defensive end. John Abraham has been solid on the left side, but he needs help, so if Seattle can either draft or sign a quality edge rusher to take some pressure off Abraham, that would be a good start. Then perhaps a quality nickel corner or even 2nd corner behind Al Harris would also be a strong option.
4. LOS ANGELES 5-9
Would LA go after Palmer? Honestly, no. Cade McNown is not their issue. They need defensive help. They were not great this year, and they are going to lose DT Cletidus Hunt in free agency after already losing Chester McGlockton to retirement in the days after the season finale. So who could they get to plug the middle? The best USFL free agent at that spot is Birmingham’s Joe Salave’a, or maybe Nashville’s Anthony Edwards. In the draft, the pool is not deep, but Kentucky’s Dewayne Robertson is at an unclaimed school, so Robertson should be a target with pick 3 in the Open Draft. Kevin Williams of OK State is another open player to examine if you are LA.
5. MICHIGAN 5-9
The Panthers like their young receivers, Hines Ward and Laverneus Coles, but losing Muhsin Muhammad to free agency (unless they can resign him, which they could not do all season), they have a need at the position. The good news for Michigan is that one of the best receivers in the draft is protected, Michigan State’s Charles Rogers. Seems a no-brainer.
6. PITTSBURGH 6-8
In a fluke of contract scheduling, Pittsburgh loses almost no one from their roster to free agency this year. That said, they don’t exactly have a murderer’s row of talent to potentially lose in the first place. Fans are not satisfied with Charlie Batch at QB, but a bigger issue seems to be the O-line, which is forcing Batch to run for his life far too often. What’s the solution? Either a true Left Tackle (unless coaches see something in Ross Verba we don’t see) or a right guard. Guards are plentiful in free agency, so they could snag one there, perhaps Oakland’s Frank Middleton, or they could go for tackle Blake Brockmeier from LA, who was a cap casualty for the Express. Then in the draft go for the position that remains unfilled.
7. TAMPA BAY 6-8
If the Bandits resign Errict Rhett and Trent Green, both of whom are top priorities, then they can turn their attention to either O-line or defense. If one of them escapes to the NFL or another USFL club, then we all expect Tampa to go into full panic mode to find a replacement. Let’s assume they sign both, which leaves them tight with the cap, so now their plan for the defense has to be the draft. Thankfully, with the U. of Miami as a protected school they can strive to sign either DE Jerome McDougle or DT William Joseph, or both.
8. OAKLAND 6-8
The Invaders could use a T-draft pick on Cal’s Kyle Boller, because we don’t see Marques Tuiasosopo being a long term answer, but if they don’t then the obvious area of need is HB. The receiving corps is solid with Burress, Booker, and now young Donte Stallworth. But Rodney Thomas had moments but not enough to ensure he keeps the starting HB job. Could Oakland make a play for Errict Rhett, or do they look to the draft and talented backs like Miami’s Willis McGahee (a possible Tampa protected player) or Larry Johnson of Penn State (a possible Philly T-Draft pick)?
9. BALTIMORE 6-8
To Jeff Garcia or not to Jeff Garcia, that is the question. We think Coach Infante will stick with Garcia but may bring in a 2nd or 3rd round talent like Dave Ragone of Louisville or Chris Simms of Texas. Infante has bigger issues at hand. The retirement of Michael Dean Perry leaves a gap at NT, and having other defenders like LB Duane Bickett and FS Leo Evans means the Blitz need to emphasize their 22nd ranked defense as a priority.
10. DENVER 6-8
After 2 straight Summer Bowl appearances the Gold did not expect to be here. Most fingers point to the suspension of Rashaan Salaam, but the combo of Rod Smart and Robert Holcombe combined for nearly 1,500 yards rushing, so we don’t see that as the issue. We think the bigger issue, the obvious one is the retirement of Leslie O’Neill. O’Neill has averaged 14 sacks a year over the past 3 seasons. You don’t just replace that, but you have to address it. Denver could go after free agent edge rushers like Nashville’s Anthony Edwards or Orlando’s Israel Ifeanyi, but there is no one of O’Neill’s impact to be had in free agency. The best pure pass rusher in the draft is Terrell Suggs of ASU, but there is no way Arizona is not drafting Suggs. So, who can Denver go after? How about a deal with Houston to sign A&M’s Ty Warren. Certainly, Houston does not need a DE right now, but again, they are a divisional rival.
11. BIRMINGHAM 7-7
This better be a deep wide receiver draft because there sure seem to be a lot of teams in need of one. Lawrence Dawsey is the clear #1, but he is 33 years old. Marcus Robinson has some good games and then disappears. The Stallions need to get Brett Favre more weapons, and the best option may be the draft. Unless Birmingham’s new coach (as of yet unchosen) really likes the look of the free agents available, players like Mike Pritchard, Lake Dawson, Cedric Tillman, or Dez White, we think the draft is where Birmingham will try to solve this need.
12. TEXAS 7-6-1
Not sure you can draft or sign a backbone in free agency, and that seems to be Texas’s biggest need, as they once again folded down the stretch and missed the playoffs. The Outlaws resigned Jeff Lewis and have Ryan Leaf under contract so QB won’t be a priority. With John Bosa’s retirement DE is a need, as is wideout after Lake Dawson opted to join the free agent pool. Texas also has needs at safety, TE, and DT, so they could go after someone like Longhorn DT Cory Redding or go after Nashville’s John Manley, who has not resigned with the club.
Looking first at the new injuries that clubs who won this week will have to face, we see New Orleans with one potential issue as CB Corey Barlow is questionable with a broken nose. Portland lost 2 players who they cannot afford to lose as LB Joey Porter is out after injuring his knee, while guard Scott Conover is doubtful with a hamstring issue.
Of the 4 teams that start their playoffs this week, there are a few players who will not be suiting up. Houston is still without WR Koren Robinson (PCL). TE Dan Campbell is questionable with a pinched nerve, while LB Pat Swilling is expected to play despite a small fracture in his right foot. For Memphis, the biggest missing player could be TE Adrian Cooper, listed as doubtful after suffering a sprained knee in practice. LB Rahim Abdullah is also listed as questionable with the mysterious “illness” as the only indicator of a problem. The Ohio Glory are entering their first playoff game without LB Brendon Ayanbedejo, who has a fractured arm and could also be without DE Vonnie Holiday, who dislocated his shoulder in the season finale. Finally, Jacksonville is nearly 100% healthy, whith the only name on the injury list being CB Terrell Buckley, who is listed as probable with “allergies”.
RETIREMENTS
We mentioned a few key retirements announced in the first week of the offseason (for the 12 non-playoff clubs, but, as is always the case, the list is longer than what we noted above. Here are the most impactful retirements of the offseason to date, most of them D-linemen.
We had two early D-linemen announce their retirements effective at the end of the year, one on a playoff team who had games to play, so I guess a bit of a forewarning for those two clubs. The first is Chris Doleman of Orlando, who basically tried to use his impending retirement as a motivator for the club. With their loss this week, Doleman is expected to make it official. The second was Denver’s Leslie O’Neill, a sure 1st ballot hall of famer for the Gold. The league is losing two of its most dangerous edge rushers in Doleman and O’Neill, two tough players to replace, to be sure. But these two were simply the beginning of what feels like a wave of D-linemen deciding now is the right time to step away from the game.
LA loses a centerpiece of their D-line with the retirement of DT Chester McGlockton. McGlockton was a difference maker in the center of the Express defense, though his work often led to others recording the big sack or the tackle behind the line. In Texas, another quality DE will be leaving. Texas DE John Bosa will leave the Outlaws with a big hole to fill on the left side. Philadelphia will certainly miss DT Chris Zorich in the middle of their D-line and while Atlanta had a short run with former Buffalo Bill Bruce Smith, who dabbled with retirement last year but came back for one more season, he will almost certainly be hard to replace when the team takes the field in Boston.
Not all the announcements were from linemen. Baltimore took 3 hits as WR Lamar Thomas, guard Chris Thatcher, and DT Michael Dean Perry all announced this week. Birmingham did not lose a D-lineman to retirement, but HB Pat Chaffey did announce he was calling it a career this week. And finally, a second Express defender is stepping away as SS Carnell Lake announced on Thursday that he would retire from the league.
FREE AGENTS ON THE MARKET
In addition to the retirement announcements, the last day of the regular season means that players on 12 of the league’s 24 clubs, those not on playoff squads, are free agents if they did not reach agreements with their clubs by Wednesday following the final game. That is a lot of talent that is available to sign for 2003, or who could opt for the NFL when the transfer window opens in just 2 weeks. Among the top potential targets for clubs are these 12 players:
Tampa Bay’s bell cow back, Errict Rhett: Still only 29 years old and a quality starter.
Philadelphia CB Deon Figures: At 32, the market may be lower than his talent merits.
Denver DE Robert Porcher: As if losing O’Neill were not bad enough for the Gold.
Baltimore LB Duane Bickett: A thumper of a run stopper and decent in coverage too.
Birmingham DT Joe Salave’a: A solid run stuffer who can occupy 2 linemen.
Los Angeles LT Blake Brockmeier: Not often a legitimate LT goes on the market. He won’t last long.
Baltimore RT Korey Stringer: Could play LT but is a better fit on the right side.
Boston QB Mark Bulger: Yes, he had issues this year, but we have also seen some good games.
LA wideout Michael Pritchard: At 32 he has lost a step or two, but he is a savvy route runner.
Michigan C Corey Raymer: Surprised the Panthers could not come to terms with this starter.
Philadelphia LT Paul Gruber: Another good left tackle who could be signed quickly.
Michigan WR Muhsin Muhammad: A deep ball threat who is only 27.
So those are the top 12 right now, but we need to remember that unless last second signings are made by playoff clubs, their unsigned players become free agents as well on the Tuesday after they are eliminated. Among playoff teams we still have some big names, high in demand if not signed soon:
ARIZONA: QB A.J. Feely, FB Richie Anderson, HB Dorsey Levins, G Paul Ostrowski
CHICAGO: G Brian Williams, TE Michael Ricks, HB Charles Rogers
DENVER: DT Paul Grasmanis, DE Robert Porcher
HOUSTON: CB Willie Williams, WR Cedrick Tillman, K Chris Boniol
JACKSONVILLE: LB Jesse Armstead, WR Dez White, HB Leland McElroy
MEMPHIS: WR Joe Horn, TE Johnnie Mitchell, DT John Von Der Boeck
NASHVILLE: DT John Manley, CB DeShaun Townsend, WR kenny Lockett
NEW JERSEY: DT Leon Webster, LB Bobby Houston, CB Kenny Gales, HB Amos Zeroue
NEW ORLEANS: G Brad Olson, TE Steve Gailbraeth, WR Isaac Byrd, K Lin Elliott
OHIO: T Robert Hicks, G Charles Johnson, DE Tony Hill, K Don Silvestri
ORLANDO: DE israel Ifeanyi, HB Mike Cloud, QB Gus Frerotte, CB Marlon Kerner
PORTLAND: DT Kelvin Prichett, CB Corey Sawyer
WASHINGTON: WR J.J. Stokes, DT Tony Kirschke
Let’s finish off with a quick preview of the four upcoming games. We have a couple of David v. Goliath games to look at and two perhaps more evenly matched games as well.
This could be another good, well-balanced game between two opponents who align with each other quite well. Both will try to set the pace of the game, both will use their run game to set up play action, and both hope to disrupt the opposition’s quarterbacks to avoid big plays.
OUR PICK: We think there is one player who tips the field towards the Generals and that is Phil Hansen, who once again was the league sack leader. We are saying NJ wins 24-20.
Saturday @ 8p ET
The Breakers split their series with the Showboats, knocking off Memphis in Week 12 by a 21-13 score, so we know they are capable. The injury to Barlow could be an issue as Heath Shuler will clearly test out his replacement by throwing to #2 receiver Justin McCaerins early and often. New Orleans will likely counter by trying to repeat what they did this week, use the run to set a slower pace and keep things simple for QB Trent Dilfer. If he is protected by play action he can find open receivers against the Memphis secondary.
OUR PICK: Memphis had a bit of a slide at the end of the season, but that may be in part to a lack of motivation once they clinched the #1 seed. We expect the fire to be back, so we are going with the Showboats, 21-17.
Sunday @ 12pm ET
The Gamblers are 5 point favorites at home as most are still not sold on the Thunder, especially on the road, where they won only 2 games all year. If Houston can use Kavika Pittman and Michael Sinclair to put the heat on Rick Mirer, they can kill drives and create the chance for takeaways. For Portland to escape, they have to prioritize pass protection even if it means keeping TE Jeramy Stevens in to block.
OUR PICK: Consider us one of the doubters. We will go with Houston, 26-19.
Sunday @ 4pm ET
This is the game everyone wants to see. Ohio has knocked off Chicago twice this year, both times by a 27-24 margin. The games were close, and Chicago coach Marty Mornhinweg has learned from both losses. The Machine believe that if they can keep the score under 30, and if they stay within 1 score during the game, they can wear down this Ohio squad, particularly their defensive line, and might just pull the major upset.
OUR PICK: There are a lot of “ifs” in Chicago’s plan. We like Ohio to win for a 3rd time. Let’s say 27-24 again.