If you thought all the big stories came out of the Eastern Conference this offseason, you were wrong. For every wild trade, draft surprise, and free agent scramble we saw in the East, there was just as much craziness out West. Not to mention the fact that we have 2 Western Conference clubs in the middle of major ownership and stadium chaos. It is just as wild if not wilder in our second season preview. We start, as we did with Part 1, with team by team analysis of the offseason.
SOUTHERN DIVISION
MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS
2002: 11-3, First in South, Lost in Summer Bowl 2002
Retirements: G M. Hutson, SS A. Walton, FB L. Centers, WR T. Dixon, CB R. Young
Free Agent Departures: DT J. Von Der Boeck (NFL), HB G. Hearst (NFL), WR J. Horn (BIR), TE J. Mitchell (TEX), HB B. Gay, SS B. Myers, C B. Kronenburg, WR C. Wilson
New Veteran Arrivals: CB Jason Simmons (NFL), LB Hannibal Navies (NFL), FB D. Shelton (OHI), HB D. Levins (ARZ), C Corey Raymer (MGN) Rookies to Watch For: G Taylor Whitley (TAMU), WR Kelley Washington (Tenn), WR Sam Aiken (UNC), TE Aaron Walker (Florida), WR Taco Wallace (K-State)
The Biggest Offseason Story: If we don’t talk about St. Louis, then the big story is the mass of retirements and free agent losses the Showboats suffered. They lost their All-USFL receiver, Joe Horn, their top rusher, Garrison Hearst, and their All-USFL fullback, Larry Centers. That is a lot, and that is only the starters. Memphis was hit hard. Did they recover? Well, signing the running combo of HB Dorsey Levins and FB Damion Shelton is a great start. Receiver is a concern, which is why Memphis drafted three of them, including Volunteer standout Kelley Washington.
Team Outlook: Is it rebuilding or reloading? Feels a bit like the former. We are just not sure how deep the offseason departures will hurt the conference champions, we just know that this much change likely will lead to a slow start for the Showboats.
Predicted Finish: We are going to pick Memphis to drop quite a bit this year, down to 7-7 and borderline for a Wild Card.
NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS
2002: 8-6, 2nd in South, Lost in Divisional Round
Retirements: QB B. Hoying, WR R. Brown, DT J. Wahler
Free Agent Departures: FB D. Greene (NFL), TE S. Johnson (NFL), G B. Olson, TE S. Gailbreath, WR I. Byrd (BOS), G. K. Blackmon, K. L. Elliott
New Veteran Arrivals: TE Bubba Franks (Trade-WSH) Rookies to Watch For: G Ben Sobieski (Iowa), WR Kevin Curtis (Utah St), DT Kenny Peterson (Ohio St), lB Bradie James (LSU)
The Biggest Offseason Story: If Memphis is the team with the most turnover, New Orleans is one of the clubs that saw the fewest departures. Yes, losing Bobby Hoying as a backup QB is unfortunate, but the bigger loss is WR Raynard Brown, Trent Dilfer’s favorite target. New Orleans tried and failed to land Joe Horn, so they settle on their current receivers and a promising rookie in Utah State’s Kevin Curtis.
Team Outlook: The Breakers are largely intact from last year, and have a chance to step up and overtake Memphis in the division. We just don’t think they drafted well. Not a lot of huge impact players for the Breakers, and their roster just does not look better than last year.
Predicted Finish: We are picking them to stay in 2nd place at 8-6
NASHVILLE KNIGHTS
2002: 8-6, Third in South, Lost in Wild Card Round
Retirements: LB D. Smith
Free Agent Departures: DE A. Edwards (SEA), DT J. Manley (MGN), CB D. Townsend (TEX), HB B. Olivo, WR K. Lockett (WSH), DT S. Evans
New Veteran Arrivals: HB Leon Johnson (NFL) Rookies to Watch For: DE Osi Umenyiora (Troy), DT Anthony Adams (PSU), G Reggie Wells (Clarion), LB Hunter Hillenmeyer (Vandy)
The Biggest Offseason Story: The biggest story in Nashville has to be the lack of effort put into free agency. Leon Johnson from the NFL is the only addition. With a club that lost some solid contributors in DT John Manley, DE Anthony Edwards, and WR Kevin Lockett, we are just not sure why Nashville was not more aggressive.
Team Outlook: For as much as we critique Nashville’s free agent strategy, their draft was pretty solid. We love what we see from umenyiora in camp and LB Hunter Hillenmeyer may move from special teams to the starting lineup pretty quickly if his preseason work is any indication of what we should expect.
Predicted Finish: We are picking Nashville to resume the position they held in St. Louis for so long, top of the division. 10-4 this year as a big riser.
BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS
2002: 7-7, 4th in South
Retirements: HB P. Chaffey, G J. Richard
Free Agent Departures: WR D. Jackson (NFL), DT J. Salave’a (OAK), G L. Friedman (TBY), LB H. Crockett (PHI). K O. Mare, FB N. Goings
New Veteran Arrivals: K Mike Hollis (NFL), LB Wali Rainier (NFL), G Doug Brzezinski (NFL), WR Joe Horn (MEM), SS Lawyer Milloy (MGN), TE Troy Drayton (LA) Rookies to Watch For: DT Johnathan Sullivan (UGA), G Steve Sciullo (Marshall), HB Ahmad Galloway (Bama), WR Kassim Osgood (SDSU)
The Biggest Offseason Story: Stealing Joe Horn to be their possession guy opposite Lawrence Dawsey was amazing, stealing him from arch rival Memphis was even better. But it did not stop there. Birmingham was aggressive this offseason. The addition of Lawyer Milloy is a huge upgrade at safety. Adding Troy Drayton can only help Brett Favre, and snagging NFL kicker Mike Hollis is just the cherry on top.
Team Outlook: We like what Birmingham has done this year. Seems they recognize that Brett Favre cannot do it all himself (he is no spring chicken anymore), so bring in a quality receiver and a TE, then draft a slot receiver in Kassim Osgood and suddenly the Stallions look like an offense that could cause problems.
Predicted Finish: We are bullish on Birmingham, but we are still thinking .500 is the goal, we see them at 6-8 or 7-7 despite the upgrades.
SOUTHWEST DIVISION
HOUSTON GAMBLERS
2002: 8-5-1, 1st in SW, Lost in Conference Championship
Retirements: LB P. Swilling, G T. Kalis
Free Agent Departures: CB W. Williams (PHI), WR C. Tillman, K C. Boniol
New Veteran Arrivals: FS L. Evans (BAL), K D. Silvestri (OHI) Rookies to Watch For: LB Nick Barnett (Oregon St), CB Sammy Davis (TAMU), WR Bethel Johnson (TAMU), G Kris Dielman (Indiana), K Josh Brown (Nebraska), HB Erik Bickerstaff (Wisc)
The Biggest Offseason Story: The retirement of Pat Swilling is likely the biggest hit for the Gamblers this offseason. Swilling was an emotional leader for the Houston defense, and while the Gamblers will certainly find someone (perhaps rookie Nick Barnett) to fill his roster spot, the ability to replace that kind of leadership is hard to gauge.
Team Outlook: Houston looks like an early favorite, particularly if Memphis slips back a bit. The Gamblers had a very good playoff run last season and they still have most of their squad intact, which is more than many others can say. They did not do much in free agency, but their draft could provide some assistance, with potential contributors by midseason at several positions.
Predicted Finish: Sometimes standing still is enough to not fall back. We see 9-5 and a division repeat for the Gamblers.
ARIZONA WRANGLERS
2002: 8-6, 2nd in SW, Lost in Wild Card Round
Retirements: None
Free Agent Departures: QB A.J. Feely (NFL), G P. Ostrowski (NFL), FB R. Anderson (BOS), HB D. Levins (MEM), G T. Claridge (DEN)
New Veteran Arrivals: QB Tony Banks (NFL), HB Stanley Pritchett (NFL), G C. Johnson (OHI) Rookies to Watch For: G Montrae Holland (FSU), FB B.J. Askew (Michigan), CB Asante Samuel (UCF), T Marques Ogden (Howard), LB Lance Briggs (Ariz), WR Bobby Wade (Ariz), HB Earnest Graham (Florida)
The Biggest Offseason Story: It has to be the snubbing Arizona received from ASU Defensive End Terrell Suggs. Viewed as a “must sign” prospect from right in their backyard, Arizona rolled out the red carpet, and Suggs still opted to join the NFL Ravens instead. That has got to hurt, particularly with DE being a clear need for the Wranglers.
Team Outlook: Arizona has good talent on both sides of the ball, but they tend to be inconsistent. We like the look of rookie CB Asante Samuel, and they may have found a solid contributor in LB Lance Briggs, but there are still many in the Valley who are upset that they lost out on Terrell Suggs. Once again, for what seems like the umpteenth time, Arizona is looking to rework their run game. Gone are Dorsey Levins and FB Richie Anderson and in their place we have rookie B. J. Askew, NFL halfback Stanley Pritchett, and another rookie, Florida’s Earnest Graham. Coach Still says that the run game is a priority, but we have heard this song before and each year it seems that it is QB Jake Plummer who leads the club in rushing.
Predicted Finish: We are going to bet on Arizona to once again hang near .500 all year. 7-7 and 3rd in the SW.
TEXAS OUTLAWS
2002: 7-6-1, Third in SW
Retirements: DE J. Bosa
Free Agent Departures: WR L. Dawson (NFL), HB E. Pegram (NFL), FB R. Booker, DT K. Von Oelhoffen, TE F. Wainright, QB T. Graziani
New Veteran Arrivals: C Joe Zelenka (NFL), WR Ike Hilliard (NFL), CB DeShea Townsend (NSH), TE Johnny Mitchell (MEM), WR Kevin Lockett (NSH) Rookies to Watch For: DT Cory Redding (Texas), QB Chris Simms (Texas), G Derrick Dockery (Texas), DE Andrew Williams (Miami)
The Biggest Offseason Story: The collapse at the end of last season tainted the entire offseason for Texas. Fans are just fed up with a strong March and April and a midsummer swoon each June. The good news is that Texas had a solid draft and landed one of the bigger names in the NFL transfer window. Ike Hilliard should fit in nicely opposite Carl Perkins as a starting wideout for the Outlaws. Among the rookies, DT Cory Redding and G Derrick Dockery look like they will be given a chance to start the year in regular rotation on the field.
Team Outlook: Texas has the talent to be better than .500, possibly to even win the division, but they have got to figure out who they are. That starts with getting a full year of play out of QB Ryan Leaf. Leaf played relatively well last year before injuries forced him out at the end of the year. I know it seems we say this every year, but if Leaf can regain his rookie year form, the Outlaws have a real shot.
Predicted Finish: We like Texas for 2nd place at 8-6.
DENVER GOLD
2002: 6-8, 4th in SW
Retirements: DE L. O’Neill, CB B. Pickens, T W. Wheat
Free Agent Departures: DE R. Porcher (NFL), DT P. Grasmanis (BAL), SS L. Lee
New Veteran Arrivals: S Dexter Jackson (NFL), WR Brandon Stokley (NFL), G Tony Claridge (ARZ) Rookies to Watch For: DE Chris Kelsay (Nebr), LB Kawika Mitchell (USF), T Dustin Rykert (BYU), CB Terrence McGee (NW State), CB Blue Adams (Cinci)
The Biggest Offseason Story: The Gold lost three superstars on defense all in one offseason. Between the retirement of Leslie O’Neill and Bruce Pickens, and then the loss of Robert Porcher to the NFL, the Gold are reeling. That defense is not going to be the same force we have come to expect. While we like new additions like rookies Kawika Mitchell and Chris Kelsay, we are not sure Denver did enough to keep themselves out of the basement in a tough and balanced SW division.
Team Outlook: The defense will have to retool. The offense is still trying to recover from the whole Rashaan Salaam debacle. and you know that will only get more problematic when Salaam's suspension ends in April. He is no longer protected on Denver's roster, but that won't stop fans from making the case that Denver needs him back, while others want nothing to do with him, so more chaos for a team that does not deal with chaos well.
Predicted Finish: We think another 4th place finish seems likely. Perhaps as low as 5-9 or 4-10 this year.
PACIFIC DIVISION
PORTLAND THUNDER
2002: 7-7, First in Pacific, Lost in Divisional Round
Retirements: HB N. Kaufmann
Free Agent Departures: DT K. Pritchett (NFL), CB C. Sawyer, DE J. Frank, TE R. Brady
New Veteran Arrivals: WR Muhsin Muhammad (MGN), HB Reuben Droughns (Trade-WSH), DE Mike Jones (Trade-BAL) Rookies to Watch For: DE Michael Haynes (PSU), HB Onterrio Smith (Oregon), DT Nick Eason (Clemson), CB Chris Johnson (Lville), DT Langston Moore (So Car)
The Biggest Offseason Story: Coach Joe Vitt got the “interim” removed from his title and then went to work this offseason. The Reuben Droughns trade created a lot of enthusiasm in Portland, despite the ownership crisis. Adding Muhsin Muhammad means even more for the offense to work with. The defense still needs a bit more beef, but adding DE Michael Haynes from Penn State is a good step. The real worry now is that this team will start to show signs of life just as the ownership collapses and it may be Las Vegas and not Portland that benefits.
Team Outlook: If you ask Thunder fans the position that causes them the most grief it is nearly unanimous, quarterback. They just don’t trust that Akili Smith can string together strong games. He has flashes and then falls into some pretty low lows. The other pieces are coming together, so now it is up to Coach Vitt to get the most out of his young quarterback.
Predicted Finish: We think Portland is in the running, but this is a division that can turn on a dime, so we are not confident that a repeat title is at all certain. 8-6 and 2nd in the division is our pick.
OAKLAND INVADERS
2002: 6-8, 2nd in Pacific
Retirements: DT T. Johnson
Free Agent Departures: WR F. Solomon (NFL), DT C. Veasey (NFL), HB R. Thomas (NFL), G F. Middleton, WR G. Barnette
New Veteran Arrivals: DT John Thornton (NFL), G Cameron Spikes (NFL), G C. Johnson (OHI) Rookies to Watch For: LB Tully Banta-Cain (Cal), T Kwame Harris (Stanford), TE Teyo Johnson (Stanford), DE Israel Idonije (Manitoba), DE Robert Mathis (Alab AM), HB Justin Fargas (USC), WR Taylor Jacobs (Florida)
The Biggest Offseason Story: Another story of a missed opportunity. Just as we saw with Arizona and Terrell Suggs, Oakland had their own big swing and a miss with USC’s Carson Palmer. Palmer opted to join the NFL Bengals, who supposedly offered nearly $5M more per year than Oakland was willing to provide. That is a huge gap, and what it means is that Oakland, for all their roster movements this year, may still not be feeling too good about their QB tandem of Kitna and Tuiasosopo.
Team Outlook: Outside of the QB position, Oakland went pretty low key. Their losses to free agency were modest, as were their acquisitions. Their draft was pragmatic but not splashy other than the failed efforts to get Carson Palmer to town. Justin Fargas should see some carries for the Invaders, and the coaches have been praising small college standout Robert Mathis on the edge.
Predicted Finish: We could easily see Oakland sneak past Portland into 1st place, but we could also see them mired in mediocrity again. Our pick is 3rd place at 7-7.
LOS ANGELES EXPRESS
2002: 5-9, 3rd in Pacific
Retirements: SS C. Lake, DT C. McGlockton
Free Agent Departures: WR M. Pritchard (NFL), C M. Tucker (NFL), QB G. Foley (NFL), T B. Brockmeier (BAL), CB I. Smith, DT C. Hunt, TE T. Drayton (BIR)
New Veteran Arrivals: DT Daryl Gardener (NFL), P Toby Gowin (NFL), QB Shane Matthews (NFL), DE Israel Ifeanyi (ORL), DT Travis Kirschke (WSH), WR Dez White (JAX) Rookies to Watch For: TE L.J. Smith (Rutgers), SS Troy Polamalu (USC), T Brett Williams (FSU), CB Ricky Manning (UCLA), WR Arnaz Battle (NDame)
The Biggest Offseason Story: Two stories seemed to resonate in LA, first that they lost a lot of talent in the offseason between retirement and free agency, but second tha they had a draft that got the fans pretty excited about the future. Losing Carnell Lake, Chester McGlockton, Mike Pritchard and Blake Brockmeier all feel like significant losses to a team that disappointed last season. But, what has fans excited is a draft class that includes USC safety Troy Polamalu, who will step into Lake’s role; Brett Williams, who could see some action at LT, Ricky Manning, and Arnaz Battle. L.J. Smith may also get quite a bit of action for the Express as well. Add to this a pretty solid free agent haul of their own and LA has reason to be optimistic.
Team Outlook: Coach Hall has seen this before, up and down seasons, where one year the club can win the division and the next year they bottom out. It is not a trend most fans want to see, but after a bad year it does provide some optimism that the club can quickly bounce back. We still see too much talent on this roster for LA to stay down. Expect a bounceback year.
Predicted Finish: We are going to join in on the optimism and say 9-5 and 1st place for the Express.
SEATTLE DRAGONS
2002: 4-10, 4th in Pacific
Retirements: LB E. Robinson
Free Agent Departures: LB L. Kirkland (NFL), DT D. Sasa, HB J. Henley, QB G. Carmazzi, WR C. Carpenter
New Veteran Arrivals: DT Brandon Noble (NFL), LB Mike Maslowski (NFL), DE Anthony Edwards (NSH), WR J.J. Stokes (WSH) Rookies to Watch For: QB Byron Leftwich (Marshall), CB Marcus Trufant (Wash St), LB Pisa Tinoisamoa (Hawaii), S Terrance Holt (NC State), C Wayne Lucier (Colorado), TE Visanthe Shiancoe (Morgan St), G Vince Manuwai (Hawaii)
The Biggest Offseason Story: The trade, no doubt. The Dragons cut bait on Brian Griese, who was something of an underappreciated commodity in Seattle, and in so doing end up with two draft picks in the top 3. What did they do with those picks? They landed the player they see as their QB of the future in Marshall’s Byron Leftwich, and perhaps the best safety in the draft not named Polamolu in Terrance Holt from NC State. Add to that two quality defenders from the T-Draft in WSU’s Marcus Trufant and Hawai’i’s Pisa Tinoisamoa and you have a really exciting draft class.
Team Outlook: You cannot expect the rookie class to jump right in and immediately turn around the Dragons’ fortunes. Seattle made some good moves but essentially leveraged this year against the future. We expect it to be rough at first, but we like the building blocks they have put in place for the future.
Predicted Finish: Our prediction is a rough 4 or 5 win season, but with significant growth. 4-10, 4th in West.
OUR PICKS FOR THE WESTERN CONFERENCE
Once again we turned to some of the stars from one conference to give us their top picks for some surprise contenders for the West. What did these Eastern Conference stars have to say about the best players and teams from out West?
Eddie George, HB, Ohio: “You know I am going to say that you have to run the ball to be successful in this or any league, and when I look at LA with Antowain Smith and DeShaun Foster, I see a team that can move the rock. Yes, they have issues, but when you can run, and you have a QB like Cade (McNown), there is a lot you can get done.”
Kordell Stewart, QB, Washington: “When I look out West, I see a lot of offenses that can scare you, but the only defense that really makes me worry is that Houston D. Those guys will just straight up punch you in the mouth. They came close last year, and I think they only got better.”
Phil Hansen, DE, New Jersey: “I know they have had some down years, and they are not a trendy pick, but I would keep my eye on the Birmingham Stallions. Brett Favre is still the man, and that team, if they can get their scheme right, can rack up 35 points on anyone. That is dangerous.”
Brian Urlacher, LB, Chicago: “For me the scariest guy to face in the entire league is Jake Plummer. The man just throws his body into danger to get the job done. You have to respect that. Does Arizona have enough outside of “The Snake” to get there this year? I don’t know, but I do know from experience that dealing with Plummer can make a defense crazy.”
Randy Moss, WR, Tampa Bay: “I have to go with my man, Byron Leftwich, a Marshall man. You have him out there in Seattle with Corey Dillon, David Boston and now they get J.J. (Stoke) too. That could be something to watch. Yes, he is a rookie, but you watch this kid. He is going to light it up out there.”
Our All-USFL commentators were about as diverse of opinion for the West as they were for the East, which may be a sign that things could be wide open this year, or may just mean that everyone is still looking up at Ohio and wondering how to knock them off the mountaintop. We do think Memphis is rebuilding after a very rough offseason, and so our favorite to take the West is last year’s #2 seed, the Houston Gamblers. They have one of the toughest defenses in football, and their offense is good enough to keep the pressure off and play some complementary ball. It may be close out west, with a lot of teams staying active in the playoff hunt down to the wire, but we see Houston coming out on top.
As for the Western Conference Award winners, it is a pretty diverse bunch as well, with a lot of disagreement in our bullpen about just who comes out on top.
MVP: While the MVP is almost always a QB, we look at the West and we are not sure who could take on that role. Jake Plummer in Arizona is a candidate. Favre always has the numbers but this would require the Stallions as a team to rise up in a way they have not in recent years. Heath Shuler seems like he could struggle without Joe Horn or Garrison Hearst alongside him. So, we are going to double down on our pick for a resurgence within the LA Express, and that gives the award to Cade McNown. Are we confident here? No, not at all, but it is no worse than any other option.
Offensive POTY: This award really should go to a player who basically carries his team, and there is no better example of that than Corey Dillon in Seattle. Especially now, with a rookie QB at the helm, we expect Dillon to be a true workhorse, and he has shown that he can carry a big load. Expect Dillon to be right there in the hunt with the big dogs like Ahman Green, Terrell Davis and Tiki Barber, but in his case, he could be far more important to any success his squad has.
Defensive POTY: We picked Houston to win the conference title, so that means the D was up to snuff, and that D runs through the D-line and its dual threat edge rushers. So, take your pick between Kavika Pittmann and Michael Sinclair. Pittman tends to get the edge on sacks, so we lean towards him as the stronger candidate, but you likely won’t see much distance between the two. Can we split the award?
Rookie of the Year: While the temptation is to say Byron Leftwich simply because we know he is the starter from Day One, Seattle could struggle, so perhaps the better option is to look for a high impact player on a team that could win 9 or 10 games. If that is the criteria, we are going to keep our eyes on Troy Polamalu out in LA. He too should start from Day One, and if LA are as resurgent as we expect, he could have a big year as a rookie.
Coach of the Year: We picked LA to rebound and once again claim the Pacific title, and if that happens, we could easily see Galen Hall once again being a Coach of the Year. I guess that’s a perk of tending to have teams that rise and fall quickly.
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