Wildcard weekend for 8 clubs, a bye for 4, and the start of offseason moves for the remaining 12. That means a lot of news to report. We got a pretty par for the course Wild Card weekend, with three of four home favorites getting the W and moving on. The fourth was a battle of two evenly matched foes and it went to the more experienced club, so not really a shock there either. We also had a slew of big-name retirees as the season ended for 12 of the league’s 24 clubs. This week we also saw something you don’t see every day, Two QB’s who started games this year cut by their teams as they look to head a new direction. More on that later, but let’s start with the on the field, our Wild Card coverage.
NEW JERSEY 13 JACKSONVILLE 14
Passing: Brady 24/43-199-1Td-1Int, Delhomme 19/33-176-1TD-1Int
Rushing: A Smith 14-84-1, Enis 14-73-0, Bynum 12-71-0
Receiving: Owens 8-100-1, Glenn 8-60-0, Becht 5-57-1
The early season trade for Antowain Smith paid off big come playoff time for Jacksonville, as Smith combined with last season’s lead rusher for the Bulls to run through and over the New Jersey Generals. New Jersey hung tough all game, but their defense, missing 4 starters, simply wore down as Smith and Kenny Bynum combined for 144 yards rushing and Antowain Smith scored the deciding touchdown in the 4th to give Jacksonville a one-point win at home.
The game started off slowly in the afternoon heat of Jacksonville. Neither team was able to do much, and New Jersey took a 6-0 lead into the half, but in the second half the sun and the Bulls started to impact the Generals. New Jersey would not score again, and when Jake Delhomme connected with Terrell Owens in the waning moments of the third quarter, the Bulls were back within 1 score and had momentum on their side. Tom Brady tried to rally the Generals, but a long pass to Donald Hayes on a broken coverage inexplicably slipped through his hands, ruining a chance for a momentum-shifting big play.
Midway through the fourth quarter, Jacksonville took advantage of New Jersey’s tiring defense, going on a 15-play drive that saw Jake Delhomme attempt only 3 passes (2 completed). The drive was a grinding and methodical push by the O-line and the two big backs for Jacksonville. It finished with Antowain Smith breaking tackles on his way to the endzone, giving Jacksonville the 14-13 lead with 8 minutes left to play. Brady would have one more shot to retake the lead but could only get Neil Rackers within range for a 49 yard attempt. The kick fell short and to the right and Jacksonville punched their ticket to the Divisional round and a matchup with defending champs, Ohio.
BIRMINGHAM 10 SEATTLE 24
Passing: Leftwich 13/22-216-0TD-0Int, Favre 20/37-212-1TD-0Int
Rushing: Dillon 27-128-2, Mitchell 7-74-1, Alexander 13-65-0
Receiving: Horn 5-77-0, Bradford 5-58-0, Dilger 2-56-0, Dawsey 4-39-1
Seattle’s defense came up big, sacking Brett Favre 5 times and holding an early lead throughout the game on an overcast day in the Emerald City. Corey Dillon provided early scores with two first quarter touchdowns and backup Brian Mitchell provided the game-clincher, a 6-yard TD run in the 4th that put Seattle up by 14 and helped them move on to the divisional round.
It was a frustrating day for the Birmingham offense, which could neither develop a reliable ground attack or provide consistent pass protection for Favre. The Seattle defenders were particularly good on third down, limiting Birmingham to only 2 conversions on 12 attempts. Five different Dragons got to Favre on the day, though it was consistent pressure from John Abraham that seemed to cause the greatest harm to the Stallion passing game.
For their part the Seattle offense was conservative but effective. Not wanting to force rookie Byron Leftwich to carry the load, the Dragons established Corey Dillon early and often, with 60 of his 128 rushing yards in the first half. That strategy worked as Seattle scored on Dillon runs on their first two drives, establishing a good lead on the Stallions. Most of the second half was Dillon and Brian Mitchell getting carries to burn time and move the sticks as Seattle held the ball for over 33 minutes in the game. With the win Seattle now heads on the road, where Leftwich will face a real test as the Dragons face the rough conditions and solid D of the Denver Gold next week.
CHICAGO 37 PITTSBURGH 13
Passing: J. George 24/29-307-2TD-0Int, C. Batch 21/36-193-1TD-0Int
Rushing: T. Davis 26-60-0, D. Staley 16-30-0, C. Rogers 11-40-2
Receiving: J. Kliensasser 8-90-0, D. Driver 7-79-1, C. Conway 4-77-1, T. Davis 4-71-0, A. Rison 5-38-1
Chicago’s experience and defensive muscle shown through in Pittsburgh as the Machine dismantled the Maulers at Heinz Field. Jeff George threw for 307 yards and 2 scores as the Machine built a 13-10 halftime lead into a 30-10 lead after three quarters. Chicago’s defense limited Terrell Davis to only 2.3 yards per carry and held Andre Rison to only 38 yards receiving as the Machine clamped down on the Mauler offense all game.
Rison’s big moment was a 15-yard TD on Pittsburgh’s best drive of the day, scoring with 1:24 left in the first half to make the score 10-10, but when Chicago managed to get into range for Tim Seder before the half and went into the locker room up 3, the Maulers never recovered. Chicago scored 17 in the third, including TD passes to both Driver and Conway, to crush Pittsburgh’s spirit. It was a clear case of the more experienced team knowing how to maximize their efforts as the score right before the half was added to on the first drive of the third, creating a 10-point advantage as Pittsburgh’s offense could only watch and wait.
The Machine will have another tough test next week against another solid defense as they head to Washington to face the top seeded Federals.
TEXAS 17 NEW ORLEANS 20
Passing: Tolliver 21/30-209-1 Td-0Int, Dilfer 18-25-206-0-0, Lewis 10/13-81-0-0
Rushing: R. Williams 18-111-1, T. Duckett 9-81-0, B. Westbrook 13-51-1
Receiving: Pickens 10-125-0, Hakim 6-80-0, Reed 4-60-0, Ward 4-36-1
The Outlaws backed their way into the playoffs, losing on the final week of the year but edging Memphis on a tiebreaker, but they availed themselves like legitimate playoff contenders, keeping close to the heavily favored Breakers all day, but eventually falling to the home favorites, and all this with a backup QB playing most of the game. New Orleans, for their part, played the long game, using Ricky Williams as a battering ram and playing strong red zone defense throughout.
Texas QB Jeff Lewis had a hot start to the game, completing 10 of 13, but on a 2nd and 7 he got blindsided by Mike McCrary and seemed woozy coming off the field. Billy Joe Tolliver would come on in relief and play well, but not well enough to get the W. The score was 6-0 at the half and 9-7 at the end of 3 as Texas got a Brian Westbrook TD run to offset three earlier Breaker field goals. In the 4th quarter, New Orleans fell behind 10-9 on a Rian Lindell field goal, but responded with a 12-play, 81-yard drive that culminated with Ricky Williams running in from 3 yards out. The Breakers opted to go for 2 to create a 7-point lead and Trent Dilfer connected with Bubba Franks to move the Breaker lead to 17-10.
New Orleans would add a field goal to go up 10, but Texas would come back. Billy Joe Tolliver went 4 of 6 on the Outlaw drive, connecting with Dedrick Ward for an 8-yard TD to put the Outlaws right back into the game with 4:33 left to play. Texas chose to kick away instead of going for the onside attempt. That proved to be an issue as New Orleans was able to string together 7 plays and 2 first downs before finally having to punt the ball back. Texas was left with only 43 seconds to mount a final drive, and that proved to simply not be enough. On the final play of the game they asked Lindell to try to connect on a 55-yard kick, but that was outside of his range even in the controlled environment of the Super Dome.
New Orleans gets the W and now head off to face the LA Express in a battle of clubs with high aspirations but little experience in playoff football (at least recently). Texas heads back to the drawing board having gained a bit of respect for their efforts this week.
Quarterbacks On the Cutting Board
Some might call it cruel, others might say that early cuts allow players a chance to find a new home, but this week we saw 3 quarterbacks with significant playing time see themselves called into the GM’s office and handed their walking papers. The biggest hit was for Baltimore starter Jeff Garcia. Apparently Ryan Leaf did enough to give Baltimore confidence to release their regular starter after, admittedly, a pretty rough season. Either that or Baltimore is simply trying to give a new coach a fresh start with a new starting QB. While Garcia is likely to catch on elsewhere as a veteran backup with some skills, Baltimore now looks at Ryan Leaf as their top QB, unless, of course, the front office is thinking QB in the draft. That seems a risky proposition if only because Ryan Leaf has something of a track record of not taking QB competitions kindly. Throw in a top flight rookie QB and Leaf is almost certainly going to get defensive. But, we shall see. Baltimore does not have a head coach yet, and we can only speculate if they will seek a QB in the draft or move ahead with Leaf.
The other pretty big surprise cut was of veteran Jon Kitna from Oakland. We all expected Oakland to make a move this offseason to improve their QB room, but we had assumed that this would mean letting 2003 season starter Marques Tuiasosopo go, likely through trade. Kitna is a solid veteran QB who, while not likely to start for a club, can certainly be helpful when the starter is injured and a club needs a 3-4 game bridge. Like Garcia, we expect Kitna to find a home relatively quickly as solid backups are hard to find most years. As for Oakland, this clearly points to the rumors that they are again going to try to go big in the draft and sign one of the 1st round talents coming out this year. With two of the top three quarterbacks being unprotected for the Territorial Draft, Oakland will have a good shot at their preferred QB with the #2 pick in the open draft. With Michigan ahead of them, who are not backing away from Drew Brees as their starter, the only potential issue is if another team trades with the Panthers to steal away the top QB. But if Oakland sees viable options among the three highly touted QBs-Manning, Rivers, and Roethlisberger-they very likely will feel comfortable at the 2nd pick. Of course, as we saw with them last year, having the pick and signing the pick are two very different propositions.
Finally, former New Jersey starter and Michigan backup Spence Fischer was let go by the Panthers. We saw this one coming as Fischer looked very rusty and very unstable when called on to replace Drew Brees during a couple of games this season. Michigan is clearly going to use the free agent pool to try to find a backup who better suits their offense and who is likely a bit more athletic than the more cerebral Fischer. With the free agent pool now containing Garcia, Kitna, Jeff Blake, Mark Bulger and Rick Mirer, we don’t think the Panthers will have difficulty finding a QB they like. As for Fischer, he could opt to retire or stick around and see if someone will take a shot on him based more on his past successes than his performance this past season.
Season’s End Brings Retirements from 12 Non-Playoff Clubs
In the annual ritual of offseason football, the end of another USFL regular season means departures for some veterans ready to move on. Once again some excellent players have reached the end of their careers and have notified their clubs of their decision. We wish these players all the best as they embark on the next phase of their lives and we look forward to seeing how their USFL clubs manage a transition to new personnel, an annual reality that helps some clubs and hurts others. Here are the players who have made public their decision to retire this week:
SS Bennie Blades (ARZ): One of the best safeties to ever play in the USFL calls it a career. He played 16 seasons in the league with Memphis, Baltimore, and Arizona, was a 10-time All-USFL selection, and will almost certainly be a first ballot HOF candidate.
LB Broderick Thomas (ARZ): The other pillar of the Arizona defense is also departing after 15 seasons, all with the Wranglers. He leaves with practically every defensive record for Arizona, an 8-time All-USFL player and a reputation as one of the most versatile and feared linebackers in the game.
DT John Randall (BAL): Baltimore loses its defensive captain and one of the great leaders in the game. A low round draft pick, Randall quickly became a centerpiece of some pretty solid Blitz defenses for Coach Infante. A 13-time All-USFL player at Defensive Tackle, Randall is now going to start the clock ticking on what should be a quick Hall of Fame process.
LB Mike Caldwell (NSH): Nashville loses another cog from its glory days as one of the league’s most feared defenses. Caldwell played his entire career for the Knights, coming into the league in 1993 in St. Louis. He leaves the Knights after a disappointing season in which Nashville failed to make the playoffs for the first time in six years.
TE John Henry Mills (ORL): Orlando had hoped to convince Mills to come back for one more year, but the big tight end has opted to protect his knees a bit by leaving the game now. Mills missed several games this year due to injury, but was still one of Joey Harrington’s favorite red zone targets. He had his best year in 2002, catching 8 touchdowns and 72 receptions.
G Lester Holmes (PHI): A stalwart of the Stars’ offensive line, Holmes departs Philadelphia after 4 seasons with them and 11 total seasons. Coming into the league in 1993 with the Stars, won a title with Philly in 1994, but left in 1995. Holmes began as a backup, and was not protected during the 1995 draft, heading to Ohio when that franchise began. He returned to Philadelphia as a free agent in 2001
LB Dixon Edwards (POR/LV): Dixon Edwards played 13 seasons with the Panthers, Glory and Thunder as an outside linebacker. Known for his speed, the undersized OLB was an effective run-stopper and solid in coverage as well. A reserve player for Portland, he had his best years in Ohio during the first 5 seasons of the Glory franchise.
LB Keith McCants (TBY): McCants played 14 seasons in Tampa Bay, coming in as a rookie in 1990. He won a title with the 1998 Bandits and has been a solid contributor to the Bandits’ defense his entire career, averaging 58 tackles per season over 14 years. His rookie year he had 7 sacks, but never truly developed as a pass rusher beyond that, with his highest total since then 4 sacks in 2002.
The Search Is On
With four teams now exploring options for a head coach, the search is on to see who will snag a leader to move them from also-rans to contenders. With all 4 teams (Michigan, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Arizona) needing to have strong offseasons and solid draft classes, we don’t think we will see a situation like in recent years where at least one club has waited until the 11th hour for the NFL season to conclude to snag a top candidate from the coordinator pool. This feels like a year when clubs will try to get a coach in place early so that they can maximize their free agent and draft processes.
Michigan got a head start on the process, releasing Mike Martz at midseason and going with an interim coach in Lovie Smith who they did not expect to be a candidate for the full-time position. We know they have been looking at lots of options already, and this week they brought in two coaches for interviews, former Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Tom Coughlin, and former Cincinatti Bengals HC and defensive guru Dick LeBeau. Both seem to fit what Michigan is looking for, a hard-nosed, defensive minded, no-nonsense coach to bring a mindset of discipline and competitiveness to a team that has some talent but has not been able to produce on either side of the ball. With an 0-14 club, the sell to a new coach may be a tough one, and may require giving any serious candidate a significant amount of personnel power as well.
Baltimore released Lindy Infante and now also seems to be interested in Coughlin, who had a strong career with the expansion Jaguars, getting them into the playoffs in only their second season. That type of franchise building seems like a skill set that the Blitz are hoping to find. Baltimore is also believed to be considering former Bandits head coach Jerry Glanville as well as former NFL Defensive Coordinator (for several teams) Fritz Shurmur.
In Tampa Bay, we know who the fans want, as they are begging the Bandits to bring back Steve Spurrier. The former Bandits HOF coach recently left the U. of Florida for the Washington Redskins of the NFL, but has struggled with the Redskins, creating a situation where the USFL Bandits could make an offer to Spurrier during the NFL-USFL transfer window that might sway the “Ol’ Ball Coach” to leave the NFL and make his way back to the USFL and the Bandits. That seems more of a pie-in-the-sky hope from desperate USFL fans, but stranger things have happened.
Finally, in Arizona the hope is that whoever the new coach is, he understands how to build a balanced offense. There is a lot of fear that Jake Plummer’s talents are being wasted on mediocre teams and that with little else working well for the Wranglers, he will go down as one of the greatest quarterbacks never to win a title. The Wranglers will almost certainly be looking for an offensive minded coach. Do they go after a West Coast guy like a Steve Mariucci or even the recently let-go George Seifert, or do they go with someone with more of a pro-style offense like a Tom Moore or Jim Fassel.
As we look ahead to the Divisional Playoff round, we have 4 teams that have just had a week of rest and four who have just finished some tight playoff games. Team health is a factor at this point, as it always is. So what do we see when we look at the four upcoming games? New Orleans @ Los Angeles looks like the healthiest game. LA has only one player out, center Brett Stoltenberg, while New Orleans could be without SS Devon Bush (Questionable) and CB Latin Berry (Probable). Jacksonville @ Ohio should also be a game largely unaffected by injuries. There is some question after this week’s game if guard Matt O’Dwyer can play. He is listed as questionable for the game. For Ohio, the bye week has helped move some players off the injury list, but DE Vonnie Holliday and backup QB Chris Redman remain unlikely to play.
While Chicago did not see any new injuries in their victory in Pittsburgh, Washington does have some concerns, even after an extra week to heal. Rookie standout Ed Reed is listed as doubtful and very likely will sit the game out. DT Kris Jenkins and TE Cam Cleeland are both questionable, though word we are getting is that both will suit up and a final assessment will be made at game time.
Finally, Seattle reports no new injuries, while Denver has several players still in questionable states. Expect guard Eric Pilgrim and CB Jabari Fletcher to be out. LB Dat Nguyen is doubtful as well and may be rested until a potential Conference title game. Finally, LB Chris Cowart is doubtful with an ankle injury.
With the recent vote to expand by 2 teams in 2006 and 2 more in 2008 the hopes of fans across the country that they may soon have USFL football each spring was raised, but a lot of work has to happen between now and the first snap of a USFL football in each city. There are the obvious questions to answer, such as who will take up ownership in St. Louis and Atlanta. And then there are other issues that need to be resolved. We present to you our Top Ten Questions surrounding USFL Expansion.
10—Where will a new Atlanta club play? The Fire had played their games at Georgia Tech’s Bobby Dowd Stadium, but the oppressive heat and humidity of summer in Atlanta seems to be a very good motivator for any new team to take up residence in the Georgia Dome, assuming a deal can be reached with the facility and the NFL Falcons.
9—Who are potential owners in St. Louis? While Atlanta already has a group that looks viable being formed, St. Louis does not enter this process with a clear frontrunner to take control of a new USFL franchise. After the issues with Orthwein, the USFL may want to steer clear of the entire Busch family unless something convinces them otherwise. So, looking outside of that family, what do you see? Two potential contenders include Johnny Morris, founder and CEO of the Bass Pro sporting goods empire and another is David Steward, owner of World Wide Technologies, a major player in the technology sale and resale world. Steward would be the first African-American lead owner in the league if he wishes to sign on to a new USFL club.
8—How do new franchises in St. Louis and Atlanta fit into the USFL alignment? Adding two teams but only for 2 years means that the league will have 26 clubs for a short period. With their current 2 conference format that creates 2 conferences of 13 teams, a hard number to divide equally. The most likely scenario is that we will see Atlanta join the Southeast Division with the three Florida clubs, and Boston would create a 5-team Northeast Division by shifting up to join the 4 current clubs.
St. Louis is more flexible but clearly adding a team to the Western Conference would make the most sense. That could be done one of two ways. The simplest is to add St. Louis to the Southern Division with Memphis and New Orleans as fellow riverfront cities along the Mississippi. But we also know that Chicago would love to have St. Louis as a natural rival. The only way that makes sense is t flip the Central and Southern divisions to have the Central (with the new St. Louis club) in the Western Conference, moving the Southern Division to the Eastern Division.
7—What happens to divisions when 2 more clubs are added in 2008? Two years later we will see two more clubs join the league, and again this could impact divisions. We assume the league would go to a 28-team format very similar to the one the NFL used for years (Between the addition of Seattle and Tampa Bay in 1976 until the addition of Carolina and Tennessee in 1995). That means that the easiest route to adding two new franchises is to select one western city (particularly a city that makes sense for either the Pacific or Southwestern Divisions) and one to the East (particularly the Southeastern division and either the Central or Southern, depending on who is also placed in the East). So, even before the process for adding 2 new locations in 2008 begins, we already know that some restrictions or preferences may be in place for potential locations.
6—Thinking of 2008, what cities seem like good potential candidates? If we assume that the most likely locations for new franchises are in the West and in the South or Southeast, that gives us our short list of likely locations. Out West, the league could try to work with Portland on efforts to get a stadium built and bring a club back to a city that has recently lost their franchise, or they could finally take seriously the interest in Dallas-Fort Worth for a club. Other, perhaps more unlikely locations, include Kansas City, Tulsa, Salt Lake City, and Sacramento. A strong ownership group would need to develop from one of these cities, and a suitable stadium as well. Right now, Dallas, Salt Lake City, and Kansas City have stadiums in place that make sense for the USFL, but not all have owners stepping up to purchase a team.
In the East, the emphasis, now that Boston has their club, is almost certainly going to be in the southern half of the country. Potential cities that could foster interest include Miami, Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, or the Hampton Roads area of Virginia. But, if the league is willing to be a bit looser with geography, there are some sizable markets in the Midwest that could support a club, including Cleveland, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, or the Twin Cities. Is a Midwestern team a priority? It seems not, particularly because the USFL has always had better attendance and a deeper following in the South, but with so many quality facilities in place in the Midwest, a city that could pair that with a strong ownership group could go far in the bidding process.
5—Will expansion also lead to a change in USFL schedules? The league made a somewhat counter-intuitive decision to reduce the USFL season from 16 games down to 14. We have seen that in operation for two seasons now, and honestly the benefits the league expected have simply not been obviously manifesting. It is very possible that by 2006 the league will be ready to revisit the issue and expand the season back to 16 teams.
4—Will the playoffs be expanded when the league adds 4 teams? Way too early to say. Moving from 6 playoff teams per conference to 7 or 8 has some attractiveness, but also some pitfalls. Moving to 7 means that only 1 club would have a bye week, creating a very uneven advantage for a club that plays in a weaker division. Moving to 8 teams eliminates the bye week altogether, which may be more attractive, but moving 8 teams into the playoffs from a 14 team conference almost guarantees that we will see the occasional team with a losing record get a playoff bid. That just feels wrong on a lot of levels.
3—How will rosters be stocked? This is always a debate. No one wants to see their favorite team lose a lot of quality players in an expansion draft, but the league cannot have a weak system that guarantees that the expansion clubs are cupcakes for several seasons. The 1995 draft, in retrospect, could have provided more talent to clubs up front. All four expansion clubs struggled for at least 3 years before they really started to level out with prior clubs. Is that too long a timetable? And with teams coming in over a 3 year period, do you have the same type of expansion process for the 2006 clubs and the 2008 clubs, or do you alter the process so that each year’s process is effective in stocking the new team rosters without decimating the other clubs?
2—Will the Fire really return or is Atlanta going to go in a new direction? If public statements can be trusted, the Atlanta group headed up by Jim Kennedy of Cox Media seems committed not only to bringing the USFL back to Atlanta, but specifically the Atlanta Fire. The question is why? The Fire, in 7 seasons in Atlanta, never won more than 6 games in a season and never made a playoff appearance. There were certainly more embarrassing moments than memorable victories for the Fire, and yet, there is a fervent group of fans pushing to resume the franchise just as it was before the sale and relocation to Boston. We are not against the idea. Atlanta had a cool identity and nice flame-covered helmets. They were also the only club in the league to use orange as a primary color. But that is not exactly a strong endorsement of why the identity should be revived.
1—How will expansion impact gameplay? One of the biggest concerns when the USFL was formed and opted not to be a feeder league for the NFL, but to compete with the Big Boys, was whether or not there were enough quality players available to have over 40 pro football clubs all claiming to be top flight football. The success of both years since the early 1980’s seems to prove that the answer was Yes, the talent was there. But, as both the NFL expanded to 32 clubs and now the USFL is looking at 28, that is 60 clubs. Some already claim that both leagues are already being negatively impacted by the number of teams. Quarterback play is the most common indicator that fans moan about when making this argument. For every Payton Manning or Kerry Collins, there is a team struggling with a mediocre QB or no clear QB in control. Will adding 4 more clubs mean we get 4 more teams that cannot consistently mount offenses or find quality QB play? No one wants to watch the quality of play drop, but both the league and the player’s union seem confident that the talent is out there and the reason for some bad situations has more to do with coaching and poor GM decisions than with a dearth of quality players to join either league.
Divisional Week means that the top 4 teams in the league get a chance to prove that their high seeds are not mirages. It is also a chance for a Wild Card club to prove it deserves respect as well. We have in this week all 6 division winners left in play along with Wild Card clubs Chicago and Seattle. Will the top seeds prevail and head to a predictable Conference Championship pairing, or will we see a Cinderella step up and extend the dance?
Saturday, July 6 @ 3pm ET
Ohio Stadium, Columbus
This looks like a tough matchup for the Bulls, which is to be expected, of course, in a 2nd round playoff. Ohio has been the best team in the league since recovering from 2 early season losses. They have the top ranked offense both in scoring and yards per game, as they did last year in their unbeaten run to a title. Their defense has improved over the second half of the season, and while they still have issues defending the run, most teams need to pass early and often to even try to keep pace with the Glory’s scoring explosions. Jacksonville’s best strategy option is what most teams have tried, to hold possession, eat up clock, and do not settle for field goals. Problem is, teams with better offenses than the Bulls have tried and failed.
OUR PICK: We cannot go against the Glory on this one. Ohio 35-28.
#4 Seattle Dragons @#2 Denver Gold
Saturday, July 6 @ 8pm ET
Invesco Field @ Mile High, Denver
We feel like Denver has really been undervalued this season. We have barely talked about them and they are an 11-3 team that has won 5 of their last six. Admitedly the Southwest Division is not the league’s toughest, and the issue with Denver is that they tend not to impress with the way they play, but it is a very effective formula. Seattle, on the other hand, has gotten a lot of press, mostly due to the early success of their All-USFL rookie QB, and the imitation they have been doing of the Ohio Glory on offense for most of the season. After a 2-5 start, the Dragons finished the season 6-1 to nab a Wild Card. They are dangerous, to be sure, but that Denver home field is real and their defense is one of the league’s best.
OUR PICK: As much as we like Seattle as an up and coming team, we are leaning towards Denver in this one. Gold 23-20.
Sunday, July 7 @ 12pm ET
RFK Stadium, Washington DC
Is anyone going to score in this one? You have the top scoring defense (WSH) against the 3rd best scoring defense (CHI), with only 21 points separating them. Denver is also the 2nd best defense in yards allowed (behind Baltimore) and Washington is 3rd. So what we are saying is that this will be a defensive game, so turnovers and making the most of opportunities will be key. And guess, what, Chicago is 3rd in the league with a +22 turnover margin, while Washington is 4th at +18. So again, a close matchup where it counts.
OUR PICK: Other than one game against the red hot Glory, the Federals have been in control all season. We have to believe that they are in control again this week, coming off a bye week when they got to rest and prepare. Washington 17-13.
Sunday, July 7 @ 5pm ET
Farmers Insurance Field, Los Angeles
This is perhaps the most even matchup of the week, with the two division winners facing off. Both have Top 5 offenses, though they are very different in style, but LA also has a Top 5 scoring defense, while New Orleans has one of the league’s most erratic (22nd ranked). That does not bode well for the Breakers. The Breakers lost 2 of 3 going into the playoffs, both key divisional games, but in their last 4 games, LA also lost twice, also both divisional games, including a stunner in Oakland when they scored only 3 points. This likely comes down to which team can contain the run game of the other and make the opposition offense one-dimensional. That allows the pass rush to tee off, and that could decide this.
OUR PICK: We are going to stick with our tendency to pick the favorites, and say LA 21-17, but we will not be shocked if that does not turn out.
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