The USFL is a hard league to prognosticate. We expect you have noticed that over the years. Teams can see their fortunes change in a single season, rising from the basement to the penthouse or falling just as quickly. A key injury, a well-scouted draft, a single free agent signing, or simply the maturation of a club can dramatically shift the balance of power. Many are debating if we are seeing that very phenomenon at work in 2004 with the Boston Cannons and Tampa Bay Bandits surprisingly sitting at 4-0 while some of the "expert" picks are struggling. It's why they play the game, because it can take so little to turn an also-ran into a contender and a preseason bully into a midseason sad sack.
BOSTON CANNONS 31 LOS ANGELES EXPRESS 21
It was to be a huge test for a young team just beginning to believe in themselves. The Boston Cannons traveled out to the West Coast to face an LA Express squad who many had picked as a potential top seed in the conference. Boston was 3-0 but still had doubters, LA wa sonly 1-2 but was still viewed as a favorite, an image that Las Vegas sportsbooks still held, making the homestanding Express a 5 point favorite. The premise was that the Cannons, despite scoring more than 40 points in each of their 3 victories had feasted on weaker foes, Baltimore and Orlando among them, but now they would face a team many saw as a true contender. The result? It would be validation for Boston, and real concerns for Los Angeles.
Los Angeles focused on making the Cannons one dimensional, shutting down the run by bringing safety Troy Polamalu up to the line and leaving only Tavares Tillman deep. They were able to contain Tiki Barber this way, holding the shifty back to only 52 yards on the day, but Boston showed that if the one dimension of their offense you allowed to flourish was the passing game, you had made a grave mistake. Drew Bledsoe would go 18 for 24, throwing for 394 yards, and tossing 3 touchdowns against an Express secondary that was simply unable to contain Chad Ochocinco. The former Glory receiver averaged 40.6 yards per catch, which, with 5 catches, put him over 200 yards on the day, 203 to be exact. In addition to Ochocinco’s huge numbers, TE James Whalen caught 4 for 98, though most of that came on one scintillating 74-yard play, and WR Robert Ferguson would bring in a 46-yard touchdown toss as the single-high safety alignment of the Express failed to cut down on big play after big play.
For a while, the Express were able to hold their own, thanks largely to 100+ yard days from both Tory Holt (105 and a TD) and Keyshawn Johnson (157 yards and 2 scoring catches), but despite tying the game late in the third on a Tory Holt TD catch, the Express eventually succumbed to the relentless pace of the Boston attack, giving up 10 unanswered points in the final period to fall at home.
Despite the presence of Polamalu near the line, LA surprisingly blitzed very little, keeping Mo Lewis and James Goode out in coverage. This limited some of Ohio’s shorter throws, but without an adequate pass rush, that just allowed Bledsoe to wait out longer routes. He would finish with an average of 16.4 yards per completion, a ludicrously high average. What became evident in this game is that Boston is very much for real, a real threat to usurp the Glory as the league’s most dynamic offense, and to go deep into the playoffs, while Los Angeles still clearly has some issues to address before they make a push for a division title. The preseason predictions clearly undervalued the impact of Chad Ochocinco on the Cannons and may have overvalued the arrival of Keyshawn Johnson in LA, an arrival that has not helped their defense scheme games more effectively or put themselves in position to rack up takeaways. It was an eye-opening game, and one that likely marks a new phase in the season.
TBY 38 SEA 30
A really fun game out in Seattle, one that almost became our GOTW thanks to its back and forth nature. Corey Dillon (115 yards, 2 scores) and Byron Leftwich (20/31, 264 yds, 2 TD) helped Seattle stay score for score with Duante Culpepper (14/28, 359 yds, 2 TD) and the Bandits. Despite holding the ball for nearly 36 minutes, Seattle could not hold off the big plays as Tampa Bay got long TDs from Kevin Johnson, Randy Moss, and a late game-clinching score from Travis Prentice to take the win.
NJ 20 DEN 24
Another really close contest in Denver as the Generals came close to knocking off the homestanding Gold. New Jersey went up 20-17 after three quarters but were shut out by the Denver defense in the final period. Denver got 110 combined rushing yards from Holcombe & Smart and in the 4th it was Holcombe’s 3-yard touchdown plunge that gave Denver the home win, moving them to 3-1.
WSH 24 TEX 17
Washington went up early, leading at one point 21-3, but Texas came on in the second half and made it a game. Deuce McCallister’s 186 yards rushing helped Washington hold on for the one score win as the Outlaws just could not score quickly enough to overcome the 18-point deficit. Kordell Stewart was efficient, going 20 of 24 and throwing for 2 scores to balance the run game of McCallister as the Federals move to 3-1 and lead the Northeastern Division.
CHI 24 BIR 21
Another one score game saw Chicago get a road win in Birmingham as Duce Staley and Michael Turner combined for 117 yards, each scoring a rushing touchdown as well. Turner is making an early bid for rookie of the year with another strong game. Brett Favre threw 3 TD passes and Shaun Alexander rushed for 96 yards, but the Stallions could not get into scoring range in the 4th quarter and a late sack meant they could not go for a game-tying kick. The Hail Mary did not connect and Chicago got the W.
JAX 28 OAK 23
Oakland is proving to be a tough out as they came back strong against Jacksonville, but ran out of time on their final drive. The Invaders struggled with rush defense as Antowain Smith had a career day with 149 yards against them. But, Plaxico Burress’s 9 catches for 91 yards and 2 touchdowns showed that the Oakland offense had its moments as well. Jacksonville moves to 3-1 in the Southeast, which is still only good enough for 3rd place.
PHI 10 HOU 20
Houston rediscovered its defense as the Gamblers held Philadelphia to only 52 yards rushing and 249 total yards. That was strong enough for the Gamblers to get a 10-point win on the strength of two Hasselbeck to Antonio Freeman touchdown tosses. HB Kevin Faulk contributed as well with 13 yards rushing on 21 attempts.
MGN 14 MEM 20 Played in Oxford, MS
Memphis played at one of their two homes away from home (Little Rock being the other) and got the win that they so desperately needed, with Dorsey Levins rushing for 111 yards and the defense holding Drew Brees to only 210 yards passing. Michigan hurt themselves with several drive-killing mistakes, including 3 holding calls on 3rd down. The Showboats are hoping to return to action in the Liberty Bowl after 1 more road/home game, but there are rumors that the stadium improvements are behind schedule.
BAL 0 ARZ 34
A brutal performance by the Blitz on the road as Ryan Leaf returned to action and got the start but clearly looked less than 100%. He completed only 15 of 37 tosses for 106 yards and 2 picks before a frustrated Coach Coughlin pulled him for Ben Roethlisberger in the 4th quarter. Meanwhile Jake Plummer went 20 of 28 for 209 and connected for 4 touchdowns, 2 to Moss and one each to Bobby Wade and rookie Larry Fitzgerald as the Wranglers cruised to an easy win.
OHI 40 NSH 27
Ohio got their groove back against the improving Knights defense. Three Nashville turnovers made the score a bit more lopsided than it should have been but 3 TDs from Kerry Collins and Joey Galloway’s best game of the year certainly helped Ohio. Galloway would finish with 7 receptions for 151 yards and a score.
PIT 24 NOR 3
A late scratch for Trent Dilfer due to the flu meant that it was Eli Manning getting his first start, and the same week that Ricky Williams began his suspension. The result was not ideal for New Orleans as the Pittsburgh defense limited the Breakers to only 211 total yards. Terrell Davis won the battle of Davis’s, outpacing New Orleans’s Troy Davis 100-43. Manning went 16/24 for 165 but threw 2 picks in his first pro action.
ORL 23 LV 38
Las Vegas got their first win of the courtesy of 2 Orlando turnovers and a 4-TD day from Akili Smith. Reuben Droughns added 85 yards on 19 carries and TE Lonnie Johnson added 101 yards receiving as the Orlando defense struggled and the offense could not make big plays.
New Orleans trades for a Halfback
The Breakers did not wait long to look for a Plan B. After one week of play without Ricky Williams, a week that saw the team manage only 3 points (although some of this might be due to an inexperienced QB), the Breakers set up a deal that would bring a “big back” to town. New Orleans has been happy with Troy Davis in his role as the 3rd down back and receiver, but he is not built to get the hard 3rd and 2 up the gut yards. So, New Orleans sent out feelers and got a response they liked from the New Jersey Generals. New Jersey, with 4 halfbacks on the roster and efforts to get young HB James Jackson more carries, was ripe for a trade for backup Olandis Gary. Gary is the type of big back in the Curtis Enis, Ron Dayne mode that New Orleans was looking for. So, what was the price? New Orleans parts with WR Jerome Pathon and a mid-round draft pick and gets a powerful inside runner. New Jersey picks up more depth in a WR corps that often feels like Terry Glenn and not much else. This could be one of those trades that helps both clubs about equally, but it certainly will help New Orleans as they try to recover from a very unwelcome 1-3 start.
Coughlin, LeBeau learning the hard knocks of USFL football.
After Week 1 we celebrated the opening game wins for both first-year coaches. Well, since then both have gone 0-3, showing that the issues with both Michigan and Baltimore were more than just leadership. Both clubs are certainly playing better ball overall and are looking competitive in these losses, but they are still losses. Baltimore is slowly trying to pick up a new defensive scheme and that has led to some big mistakes and even bigger yardage against them. They are currently in the bottom 5 in several defensive categories, something Coach Coughlin is going to want to address quickly.
For Michigan the problem last year was offensive production, and they are certainly looking better this year, but the run game remains a concern. Rookie Chris Perry is getting carries but is struggling to turn touches into big plays. The offense still feels very much like Drew Brees dealing with a lot of long third down conversions, and that is not a winning formula.
The other two first year coaches, Arizona’s Jim Fassel and Tampa Bay’s Steve Spurrier are having significantly more success, with Arizona sitting at 2-2 and showing signs of an actual run game, with Stephen Davis topping 100 yards, something we have not seen in Tempe for quite a while. In Tampa the influence of Spurrier has been swift and widesweeping. The Bandits are sitting pretty at 4-0, with a defense that is developing some character and a Bandit Ball offense that is looking very dangerous.
It is never easy taking over a new team, and it is rare that the first year for a new coach provides that coach with a talent-rich roster and a path to easy success. Building a team takes time and changing a culture takes a lot of work, so we should not be shocked that we are not seeing these 4 clubs all flipping the script from last year. That Tampa is having the success they are is far more the anomaly than the rule.
QB Issues already arising in Baltimore
Let’s stay on the new coaches for a second as one of them, Baltimore’s Tom Coughlin, has his first big issue on his hands. With Ryan Leaf coming back off injury, the thought was that Ben Roethlisberger would return to the bench and continue to learn the pro game, but the problem is that this week’s game clearly showed that Leaf is not 100% and that a sub-par Ryan Leaf is not a better option than a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Leaf struggled in his first action back after missing 2 games, throwing a pair of picks and failing to generate consistent offense. Coach Coughlin pulled him in the 4th quarter, when the game was already well out of hand, and got Big Ben a few more snaps, but the pressure is going to be on to name Roethlisberger the starter unless Leaf proves he can win games. And, as we all know, Ryan Leaf believes himself to be a starting QB and will absolutely not take a benching well.
So, what do you do if you are Tom Coughlin? Do you go with the veteran despite the pressure to put in the #1 overall pick, or do you go with the rookie and very likely face a very unhappy and outspoken veteran QB. We know Coughlin is a no-nonsense disciplinarian, so that may be a very short-lived tantrum if Leaf is benched, but either way Coughlin goes, it will make things messy in the locker room to be sure.
Manning first action in NOR
As we mentioned in the game recap, Eli Manning saw his first action as a pro this weekend in Las Vegas. It was not exactly the start he would have dreamed of, with his first pass missing receiver Josh Reed by a wide margin. His third play as a pro was a sack, and his 7th was a pick, so not the start he would have wanted to be sure. The younger Manning brother calmed down after his first 2 series and looked better for the rest of the game, but still struggled to put together consistent plays and sustain drives. He would be sacked 3 times in the game, throw a second pick to CB Dre Bly, and finish the game with only 165 yards passing and 3 points on the board.
It was admittedly an unexpected start, with Dilfer having muddled through practice on Thursday only to come up with a high fever by Friday, forcing him to miss Saturday’s game. So, with few snaps during the week, Manning was called on as an emergency start. By all accounts, it will be Dilfer back under center for the Breakers in Week 5 although we anticipate that at some point this year the fans in the Super Dome will get their chance to see the young Manning at QB, even if only in garbage time.
Early Award Favorites
Four weeks in and time to think about our favorites for the USFL Awards. Already this year we are seeing some new faces atop the leaderboards in several areas, so the question becomes whether or not the remaining 10 weeks of the year will see a return to familiar faces or could this be a changing of the guard?
MVP: After three consecutive wins by Ohio QB Kerry Collins, he looks to be facing some tough competition this year. Drew Bledsoe in Boston is putting up very Collins-esque numbers, leading the league with a 142.7 QBR after 4 games, and currently he sits nearly 200 yards ahead of Collins with 4 more touchdowns than the 3-time MVP. Another QB getting a lot of attention, Tampa Bay’s Duante Culpepper, certainly can make the claim to being MVP just based on the 4-0 start for a team that won only 4 games in the entire 2003 campaign. Culpepper’s stats are not nearly as gaudy as Bledsoe’s, but his 1,268 yards and 8 TDs are certainly worthy of some MVP votes.
Offensive POTY: Assuming the MVP will be a QB, that usually means a different offensive position could win the OPOTY. If that is the case this year, then the frontrunners have to be Boston wideout Chad Ochocinco, currently 2nd in the league with 447 receiving yards on 14 receptions. Right there with Ochocinco is Ohio HB Eddie George, leading the league with 413 yards and a 5.1 YPC average. Finally, we have to acknowledge the early season success of NFL import Keyshawn Johnson. The newest member of the LA Express has 357 yards and already has racked up 4 TDs.
Defensive POTY: The early money here is on Chicago LB Brian Urlacher, who is among the league leaders with 34 tackles, but also has a pick, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble. Another strong candidate is former Atlanta Fire and current LA Express LB Mo Lewis. The Express defensive captain is third in the league with 40 tackles, but also has 2 picks, 2 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles, a well-rounded first month to be sure. Finally, another Machine player, DE Anthony Weaver, is also having a banner opening month, leading the league with 6 sacks, including 3 in one game.
Rookie of the Year: As we mentioned earlier, Michael Turner is proving to be an excellent mid-round pick up for the Machine. His 218 yards and 2 TDs on 62 carries is right there with Michigan’s Chris Perry. They are getting competion from wideout Larry Fitzgerald, who already has 16 receptions for 131 yards and 3 TDs. Finally, New Jersey LB Donterrrious Thomas has made a strong first impression with 17 tackles in his first 4 games, along with 2 forced fumbles.
Coach of the Year: Four weeks is a little early to coronate Steve Spurrier as the Coach of the Year, though the Bandits’ 4-0 start certainly has been impressive. Boston is also 4-0 and Coach John Fox certainly seems deserving of attention as well. But watch out as well for Pittsburgh’s Jack Bicknell and Oakland’s Dennis Green. All four are doing solid jobs so far this season, but if we had to wager we think the Hall of Famer, Spurrier, has to have the inside track.
A big hit for the 2-time defending champions this week as MRI’s confirmed on Tuesday that starting DT Gabe Wilkins has, in fact, ruptured his ACL and will miss the rest of the year. Ohio immediately placed the big man on IR and called up a backup from the practice squad to fill the 4th DT spot on their roster, but this is going to be an immediate challenge to other teams to test out the inside run on the Glory.
Others who are now expected to miss a week or longer include Washington center Matt Johnson (4-6 weeks after suffering a hernia during weight training), Las Vegas LB Mark SImoneau (2-4 weeks, collarbone), Denver QB Mark Brunell (1-2 weeks, knee) and Pittsburgh TE Alge Crumpler (1-2 weeks, elbow).
Mark Brunell has been a bit of an ironman in Denver, so these next two weeks, with Eric Wilhelm at the wheel, will be a test for a team that was very used to having their leader under center.
Finally, expect Keyshawn Johnson (cornea), WR J.J. Stokes (finger) and DE Michael Sinclair (Thigh) to miss this week. All three are listed as questionable but reports from each club point towards a 1-week hiatus.
Owners Meetings Move Forward with Expansion
The big story out of the Owners meeting is that the league has confirmed two ownership groups which are under review for expansion to Atlanta and St. Louis in 2006. As expected, the “Return the Fire” group headed by Jim Kennedy of Cox Media and including USFL Hall of Famer Herschel Walker among its investors, has received the initial endorsement of the league owners. The group will now undergo an extensive financial review to hopefully ensure that none of the issues we have seen in the past with several owners arise for this new club. Assuming that the group passes muster, we could see an official announcement as early as this August of the official return of the Atlanta Fire to the league. The group has a deal in place that would allow an Atlanta club to play its home games at the Georgia Dome, and seems to have more than ample financial backing so, barring any unforeseen skeletons in the closet, this feels like a win for Atlanta.
As for St. Louis, the surprise is that the two primary investors that the city and the league have been connecting with throughout the process, Bass Pro CEO Johnny Morris, and World Wide Tech. CEO David Steward have come to an agreement to present a united bid. In this bid, Steward would serve as the CEO and President of the club, with both Steward and Morris owning a 40% share of the team, and additional investors making up the remaining 20%. This is a very positive step forward for St. Louis as having two competing bids would almost certainly delay the review and selection process. As with Atlanta, the league now can move to the financial and legal review, and, if all comes up clear, the announcement of the St. Louis franchise could happen in August. No word yet on an identity for the club, and we suspect that some form of fanbase-building “Name the Team” contest may be part of the process if the ownership group is approved. Far too early on that item as the review absolutely has to come first, followed by the league vote to approve both ownership groups.
Television Deals to provide 11% increase in revenue
The USFL owners approved the bids of NBC, FOX, and ABC/ESPN for an extension of 6 years to the television package that places NBC on Friday Night, FOX and ABC on a mix of Saturday and Sunday afternoon games, and ESPN as the Saturday and Sunday night broadcasters. The combined deals are contingent upon the anticipated expansion to 28 clubs, and will increase overall revenue by 11% over the current deal. That increase is largely offset for USFL clubs by the expansion as the pie will now be cut 28 ways instead of 24, but on the whole it is a very healthy deal which will allow the USFL to retain its position as a competitor to the NFL, providing ample funding to support the ongoing salary wars between the two leagues (more of a cold-war, with an ongoing armistice, to be honest).
No word on whether or not the networks were successful in their push for the USFL to expand the schedule back to 16 weeks, though there is wide speculation that with the addition of Atlanta and St. Louis in 2006 the league will do just that. What there is, however, is a clause that requires that the 27th and 28th franchise must be located in Top 50 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s). This may feel like an imposition on the USFL, but the reality is that no serious bid is expected from a metropolitan area outside of that ranking. With bids anticipated from Dallas (4), Miami (8), Charlotte (23), Virginia Beach/Tidewater (33), and Raleigh-Durham (45), all fit within the guidelines. Just for comparison, Atlanta ranks as #9 and St. Louis as #18 and Portland is #24.
QB Spots to be Altered
As reported two weeks ago, one of the rule changes proposed by the Competition Committee for 2005 focused on the third QB for each club. The owners this week approved the proposal to place third quarterbacks in a unique position among rostered players. Teams still have option of retaining 3 QBs on their active roster, but can free up a space by placing their 3rd QB on the practice squad without giving up the option to call them into action during a game should an emergency require this. The new categorization is limited to the QB position and essentially allows one QB on the practice squad to be designated as the “Emergency” QB, dressing for games and able to come in should the other options be injured, Once an E-QB is placed into a game, the other “active roster” QB’s are no longer allowed to return to the game. This prohibits a team from using, for example, a scrambling QB, in a small set of run or option plays only to return to their primary signal-caller on the next play or next set of downs. Once the E-QB is activated he must remain the QB for the remainder of the game.
What does this do for USFL rosters? Essentially it just frees up teams to retain 3 QB’s but still gain a roster spot in the 53-man active roster for another position player. It is not a great deal for the QBs themselves, as this would allow teams to stash QBs on the practice squad, where the salary compensation can be significantly lower than that of even a 3rd string active-roster QB. What we anticipate is that teams that sign either veteran “mentor” QBs or prospect rookies may find that the contracts those players agree to will prohibit their demotion to the practice squad, while other QBs, those who have little expectation of being named the starter for their club in the future, will be the most likely to be placed into these positions. It could very quickly become a position staffed primarily by late-round draft picks and journeyman QBs rather than that top rated rookie who is a year away from getting into games.
The other proposed change, that of the removal of a kicked PAT and replacement with two different plays from scrimmage, was soundly defeated in a general vote as owners opted to retain the traditional PAT as well as the 2-point option. There was a bit of a fear among owners that any move that stepped too far from the game popularized by the NCAA and NFL over the past 80 years would be seen as both gimmicky. That current PAT success rates are well above 90% and that the play is often viewed as an afterthought could still be addressed as a counterproposal went back to committee to explore moving the Pat from the 2 yard line back to the 20, creating a 37-yard FG as the Pat. While still not a big challenge for USFL kickers, a 37-yard kick does have a lower conversion rate, usually in the mid-80% range. Not exactly a role of the dice, but certainly holding greater potential for misses than the current 19-yard version.
Week 5 could be a big one for the 12 Eastern clubs who find themselves back in divisional play. The highlight game is likely to be 4-0 Boston visiting 3-1 Jacksonville, a real test for the Cannnons. Ohio, sitting at 2-2, will not have an easy time as they head across the state line to face the 3-1 Maulers in Heinz Field. Tampa Bay is in another Florida Derby, but they face the 1-3 Renegades, who now seem very much the weaker sister to the Bandits. In other games, 3-1 Chicago heads to Michigan to face the rival Panthers, Philadelphia is in Washington and the Baltimore Blitz are expected to start Ryan Leaf when they head to the Meadowlands to face the New Jersey Generals.
The best game in the Western Conference is likely the Friday Nighter when 2-2 Nashville heads to Houston to face the 2-2 Gamblers. Denver, the only team above .500 in the conference is back at home to face the Oakland Invaders, who are a bit of a surprise at 2-2. LA hopes to get back on track as they head to the desert to face the Wranglers. The Breakers, with their fresh new HB, head to San Antonio where another 1-3 club awaits them, the Outlaws. Birmingham and Las Vegas will face off at Sam Boyd Stadium and the Seattle Dragons get another home game as they host the Memphis Showboats.