I think we can officially say that it is already too late to jump on the Seattle Dragon bandwagon. Season ticket holders had might as well buy t-shirts that say “I was a Dragon Fan before it was cool” because the Dragons have captured the imagination of the country at this point. They went into the Western Conference Championship as a 9-point underdog to #1 seed Houston. They came out a convincing winner. Now they head to their first Summer Bowl, and again they are a heavy underdog, with Las Vegas placing them as a 7.5 point underdog to the Chicago Machine, another #1 seed. It is an incredible story, a 6-8 club that needed to win in Week 14 just to qualify, has now knocked off all three Western Conference division winners, first the #3 seed Nashville Knights, then the #2 seed Oakland Invaders, and finally the #1 seed Houston Gamblers. They now face another division winner, and the team with the best record in the league this season, the 11-3 Chicago Machine.
The Machine defeated Philadelphia by 21 points in the Divisional round before squeaking past the Tampa Bay Bandits by a single point in this week’s Eastern Conference Title Game. They see themselves as the best team in the league, and their record confirms that this has been the case, but now they face what appears to be a team of destiny. But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s focus first on how both of these squads punched their tickets to next week’s Summer Bowl in Houston.
TAMPA BAY BANDITS 26 CHICAGO MACHINE 27
Soldier Field was the site for the first of our two Conference Championships, and the home team Machine needed every ounce of support they got from their fans as they battled a very talented and very game Bandits squad. Chicago would survive, despite being outgained 452-309 and committing the only turnover of the game. They would win because in the final stretch of action, after a rough 3rd quarter, the defense regrouped and shut down Tampa’s primary offensive weapons, allowing the offense enough room to pull back into contention and then back into the lead.
This was a back-and-forth affair all game long, and both clubs could have been viewed as legitimate champions with the way they played on this day. Chicago aimed to make Tampa Bay one dimensional, and largely succeeded, limiting Willis McGahee to only 20 yards on 13 carries. Tampa Bay hoped to force Chicago to convert on third down and make slow progress instead of big plays, and with that they struggled as the day for the Machine included a 25-yard rush by Michael Turner, a 22-yarder from Brian Westbrook, and receptions of 34, 27, 37 and 25 yards from Chicago receivers.
The game opened conservatively with both clubs feeling out the opposition defense. Tampa Bay ended their first drive with a Nate Kaeding field goal after making some progress through the air against the Chicago secondary. Chicago responded, taking up Tampa Bay’s challenge and concluding a methodical 11-play drive with a 2-yard Turner TD run. They would double their score 6 minutes later when their next drive concluded with Jeff George hitting Jim Kliensasser for a short 5-yard TD toss. Down 14-3, Tampa Bay responded in their usual fashion, going for a big play. Daunte Culpepper connected with Jeremy Shockey on a seam pattern, and the big man shrugged off the lone tackler in his way, rumbling 79 yards for a score to pull Tampa back to within 1 score at 14-10. They would draw even closer on their next drive, another Nate Kaeding field goal making the score 14-13 with 6 minutes left in the half.
Chicago would take advantage of those six minutes, again moving the ball slowly but steadily into Tampa Bay territory. An offsides penalty on a key 3rd and 4 helped Chicago keep possession, and they used that bit of luck to put them in position for a half-ending score, a perfect corner route by Curtis Conway, who landed both feet in bounds as he fell out of the end zone with the ball. Chicago lead by 8, 21-13, at the half.
While Coach Mornhinweg had to feel good about the halftime lead, he knew that across the stadium, Coach Spurrier was devising a new strategy to attack the Machine defense. That was indeed the case as Tampa Bay would come out in the 2nd half with a new strategy to push Chicago’s defensive secondary. The Bandits would utilize a 1-back, 2-TE set to force Chicago to creep their linebackers up towards the line. This led Chicago to abandon the shell zones that had worked for them in the first half. With one or both tight ends moving prior to the snap, Chicago had to reveal their coverage, zone or man. And with that knowledge Daunte Culpepper began to pick apart the Machine defense for the first time all game.
Tampa Bay would control the clock for 11 of the 15 minutes of the third quarter, and they would come away with two Randy Moss touchdowns. The Bandits went for 2 on the first, but came up short, a gambit that would prove decisive in the end. Trailing 21-19, Tampa would again find Moss for a score, this one a 28-yard score on a hook & go pattern. They went from trailing 21-13 to leading 26-23 by the time the third quarter came to a close.
Down six, Chicago also made adjustments. On offense they relied a bit more on their run game to tire the Tampa Bay defenders. Splitting carries between Turner and Westbrook, and interspersing them with short tosses to Klliensasser, Driver, and Conway, Chicago put together a successful drive, but one that fell short of the goal line. Tim Seder would pull Chicago to within 2 at the 4:27 mark of the 4th with a 22-yard chip shot from the 5 yard line. It would be up to the defense to get Jeff George and the Machine the ball back once again.
The defense would do just that, stemming the Tampa attack on three consecutive plays. On first down, McGahee was stuffed for a 1-yard loss. On second, Culpepper was forced to dump the ball off to his safety valve, TE Jeremy Shockey, for a gain of only 4. On third and 7 they would pass again, and the Machine defenders knew it. Chicago used a nickel defense, and opted to keep 7 in coverage, rushing only 4. After an initial push up the middle, Culpepper was forced to his right, and Simeon Rice was there, waiting for him. Rice’s 2nd sack of the day was pivotal, as it forced Tampa Bay to give the ball back to Chicago.
Jeff George came out to the field once again with 2:49 left on the clock, more than enough time to get a field goal. Chicago would grind the ball out, passing only twice on the drive. They killed clock as well as picking up yards, ensuring Tampa would have no time to answer a Chicago score. With 37 seconds left to play, and facing a 4th and goal from the 2, Chicago opted to go for the sure points, brought out Tim Seder, and the league’s All-USFL kicker connected on what was basically a PAT to put the Machine up 1 point. That is all they would need. Tampa did not have time to get back to field goal range, and the stadium erupted as the final seconds counted down. Chicago would be returning to the Summer Bowl for the first time since 1994, when they represented the West against eventual champion Philadelphia.
SEATTLE DRAGONS 24 HOUSTON GAMBLERS 10
With Chicago locking up a spot in Summer Bowl 2006, the question of their opponent now turned to Houston, the site of the Western Conference Championship and the #1 seed, who were looking for a shot to play in their 7th Summer Bowl, and to do so in their home stadium. The Gamblers came into the game a 7.5-point favorite, lower than Oakland had been the week before, and all credit for this went to the Dragons, who had shocked the league by knocking off both Nashville and Oakland, both on the road. They would need a third upset road victory to make their first appearance in the Summer Bowl.
The game got off to a slow start with both defenses dominating the early play. Houston would get a field goal with about 2:45 to play in the opening quarter, but neither team had shown much ability to drive the ball in their first 2 drives. That all changed with Seattle’s third drive. The Dragon drive began with two Corey Dillon runs. The first went for 2 yards, similar to his early runs in the game. The second, however, was another story. A counter play to the right side, tackle Lomas Brown pulled and went straight for Houston MLB Sam Cowart. Brown took Cowart completely out of the play and Dillon found a wide-open hole to run through. Tackled out of bounds 27 yards later, the play sent a shiver down the back of Houston's defensive coaching staff. On the next play, facing a similar 2-back, 2 receiver set with the TE on the right side, they brought the linebackers in tight. That made it easy picking for Leftwich with single coverage outside. He connected with O.J. McDuffie for 29 yards on a beautiful play fake. Two plays later, the play action would again find outside receivers in single coverage, and Leftwich would connect with David Boston for a touchdown.
That drive set a tone that Houston was not prepared for. The Gamblers took back the lead with an offensive drive of their own, one ending with Matt Hasselbeck connecting with Antonio Freeman for the score. But Seattle would even the game up at 10 before the half. Seattle had not only held their own against Houston in the first half, they had sensed a bit of fear, that Houston was not entirely prepared for Seattle, that perhaps they had also bought into the hype that the Dragons had been lucky to get this far and could win purely on reputation, but that one drive in the 2nd quarter had shown that this was not the case. Coach Lewis would use halftime to pump this thought into his player’s heads, that they, and not Houston, were the better team, and that they had a chip on their shoulder to prove it.
The Dragons did just that, shutting out Houston in the second half, despite being outgained. They were helped by two poorly thrown balls from Matt Hasselbeck, one which Al Harris returned all the way to the Houston 2-yard line. Seattle never earned a sack on Hasselbeck, but the pressure they were sending him clearly was working, and with no run game to fall back on the Gamblers were simply not making enough plays to keep drives alive. Meanwhile, Seattle took the lead on a 27-yard Leftwich to McDuffie pass very similar to the one earlier in the game. Once they had the lead, they fed the ball to Dillon, who would end the day with 118 yards on 20 carries, a 5.9 YPC average. They sprinkled in enough passing to keep the defense honest, and to sustain drives when needed. When Harris picked off Hasselbeck and gave the offense the ball at the Houston 2, it took 3 plays, but eventually a toss to Sproles gave Seattle a 14-point lead.
Houston was broken. Down 14 with only 8 minutes to play, and no sign that they had the energy or the strategy to make up the difference, you could feel the deflation throughout the dome. The crowd was quiet, the offense somewhat listless, and every time Seattle touched the ball they managed to knock another 2 to 3 minutes off the clock. The Gamblers would finish the game with a failed 4th down and 7 attempt, and Seattle would celebrate as the most unlikely run in USFL playoff history had now taken the Dragons all the way to the Summer Bowl, knocking off the #3, #2, and #1 seeds in the west, in each team’s house, to do it.
Coach Lewis praised pretty much everyone except Al Gore and Oprah in his post-game presser. From his assistants, to his young QB, his veteran linemen to his DBs. He even thanked the hotel which had turned away rowdy Houston revelers the night before, revelers intent on disrupting the sleep of the Dragons. Seattle would spend the rest of the week in Houston, preparing for the Summer Bowl and practicing at the Alexander Durley Sports Complex on the campus of HBCU Texas Southern University. Chicago is planning to practice Monday at home, and then fly to Houston on Tuesday after practice before setting up their final workouts at Rice University.
Seattle Stuns the Nation with Historic Playoff Run
I do not think it can be overstated just how historic Seattle’s run to the Summer Bowl is. Not only is it extremely rare for a club with a losing regular season record to qualify for the playoffs, but to run the table on three straight road games against home favorites is simply unheard of. Since the Wild Cat Format was adopted (with 10 playoff teams) in 1987, only two teams that played Wild Card games ever reached the Summer Bowl, and both were division winners that were #3 seeds and played the Wild Card round at home. No true Wild Card team has ever appeared in the Summer Bowl before, much less one with a 6-8 record. The 2003 Breakers were Southern division Champs at 9-5, beating Texas at home before upsetting LA and Denver on their path to the Summer Bowl. The 2001 Denver Gold made it to the Summer Bowl after qualifying as the 3rd Division Winner at 11-5, beating Portland at home, and then getting a road victory at LA before defeating the 8-8 Wild Card Wranglers at home, back in Denver in the 2001 Conference title game. So, Seattle, winning all 3 games on the road is a first.
Seattle is living a dream that the USFL has not seen before, that a team at the lowest seed, one that barely qualified, can get hot and make it to the title game. They are not at the mountaintop yet, as the Chicago Machine, the team with the best record in the league, and sitting on a 7-game winning streak is standing in their way from one of the greatest Cinderella stories in sports history. Can Seattle muster up one more win? Or will the Machine grind up Cinderella on their way to the Windy City’s first league title?
Bandits & Gamblers Deal with Losses on the Field and On Their Rosters
Losing in the Conference Title Game, only one win away from a Summer Bowl, is a tough pill to swallow. When it is accompanied by the reality of player departures as well, it can feel even worse. That is the reality that the Gamblers and Bandits face this week as both teams pack up their locker rooms, and prepare for a long offseason, the pain of Sunday’s defeats still very much felt.
Both clubs will have some players who do not return next February, when camps reopen. For Tampa Bay the free agents who now become open to the market include both backup QB’s, Rick Mirer and Ken Dorsey. Dorsey is still in talks with the Bandits, who hope to keep the former Hurricane as a backup to Culpepper, but with 2 expansion clubs and a lot of the other 24 teams also hoping to build depth at QB, there will be competition.
Houston’s free agent list is slightly longer than that of Tampa Bay, with the biggest names being those of Fullback Theron Wilson, OT Andre Johnson, TE Bradford Banta (a former Bandit), and DT Howard Green. In addition to these losses, LB O.J. Brigance has announced his plan to retire, another veteran who will not return to the Gamblers.
No Bandit players have yet to announce retirement officially, but there are rumors that center Craig Novitsky, who has been dealing with an ongoing hip injury, is considering stepping away.
Both clubs now begin their focus on the offseason, beginning with setting their protected list for the upcoming Expansion Draft, and scouting the Free Agent pools of the USFL and NFL ahead of the opening of USFL Free Agency in two weeks and the NFL-USFL Transfer Window a week after that.
Hackett Steps Down in WSH, Schottenheimer promoted.
In a surprising turn of events, longstanding Washington Federals head coach Paul Hackett announced this week that he is stepping away from the game. He did not call the move a retirement, but stated that after 10 seasons as the head man in D.C. he needs to take time for himself and his family. This decision has apparently been part of discussions with Washington ownership for some time, as a transition has already been set up for Hackett’s secession. Defensive Coordinator Kurt Schottenheimer was immediately named the new head coach of the Federals. Schottenheimer, who came to work for Hackett at the beginning of the 2000 season as a Linebacker Coach, has been the DC for the past 2 years. This will be his first head coaching position. And yes, as you might have guessed, he is related to former Blitz and Machine head coach Marty Schottenheimer, Kurt is Marty’s younger brother.
Terrell Owens wants to return to USFL
It seems Terrell Owens is second guessing his decision to leave the USFL for the NFL 2 years ago. Owens, who left the Jacksonville Bulls for a lucrative contract with the NFL Eagles, has had several clashes with his head coach in Philadelphia, and is currently a free agent after he and the Eagles parted ways during the NFL offseason. Owens, who played 8 seasons with the Bulls, would be eligible to negotiate with any USFL team during the upcoming NFL-USFL transfer window.
The 33-year old receiver, despite his issues with Head Coach Andy Reid in Philadelphia, still had solid numbers, putting up 1,102 yards and 9 TDs in 2003, 1,200 yards and 14 TDs in 2004. Owens could still sign with an NFL team for the Fall 2005 season, and then move to the USFL in the second transfer window in February, but, having experienced back-to-back seasons in 2005, it is also possible that Owens would take the extended rest that sitting out 2005 would give him, and then return to the USFL in 2006. No word yet from the extroverted (we are using a polite term) wideout as to teams that interest him, but we do not expect Jacksonville, which has built a solid WR group around Anquon Boldin, Javon Walker, and 2005 break out star Rashaun Woods, will have interest in resigning the flamboyant Owens.
All-USFL Team & League Award Winners Named
The build up to the Summer Bowl continues with the USFL holding its annual award ceremony Monday night in Houston. The gala event kicks off Summer Bowl Week with recognition of the 2005 season award winners and the 2005 All-USFL team. All winners, with the exception of members of the Dragons and Machine, were present to accept their awards and accolades, along with several celebrities and USFL legends. The awards given out on Monday were:
League MVP: Perhaps the tightest race of the year, and for those who claim there is a bias against Ohio and 3-time QB Kerry Collins, this year’s MVP vote is likely to provide some fodder for their claims. Collins finished second in voting, despite leading the league in QB Rating and TDs. Maybe there is something of an anti-Collins vote in the works, as Collins fell 3 votes behind 2005 MVP Winner QB Drew Brees of Michigan. Brees finished the year as the #2 rated QB in the QB rating system, #2 in TDs with 33, both behind Collins. He also finished #2 in yards behind Drew Bledsoe of Boston, but what Brees can say that neither Collins or Bledsoe can refute is that he guided Michigan to a playoff berth, while both Ohio and Boston fell short.
Brees's Michigan Panthers, in their 2nd season under defensive-minded head coach Dick LeBeau, made the postseason for the first time in the millennium, landing a Wild Cards spot with a 9-5 record. Considering that the Panthers finished the year with the 2nd rated scoring offense, despite have the 20th rated run game does show that Brees’s impact was huge for Michigan. While Collins and Bledsoe had strong run games with Eddie George and Tiki Barber among league leaders, Michigan depended on Brees and his connection with receivers Hines Ward, Laverneus Coles, and Bennie Joppru to produce offense.
Offensive Player of the Year: Kerry Collins was not entirely shut out on Monday. In addition to being named to the All-USFL Team, Collins was recognized for his production by being named the Offensive POTY. While not the award that most Glory fans expected for their leader, the OPOTY recognizes the production Collins put forth in 2005: 239 of 352 (67.9%) in completions, 4,151 yards, 39 TDs to only 8 picks, and a league leading 135.3 QB rating. While fans of #5 were upset that he was passed over for a 4th MVP award, Collins himself was gracious in accepting the OPOTY, another accolade to add to a pretty crowded trophy case.
Defensive Player of the Year: This award was only a controversy within the Chicago Machine locker room. The league’s top scoring defense had two outstanding candidates, DE Anthony Weaver and LB Brian Urlacher. Weaver put up huge numbers in his 4th season in the league, scoring an eye-popping 24 sacks in 14 games. He was also no slouch in the run game, garnering 60 takcles as well. But, the team captain for the defense, and one of the most feared defenders in the league, LB Brian Urlacher, would take home the award thanks to a season that saw him rack up 108 tackles, 5 sacks, 4 picks, and 2 defensive touchdowns for the Machine. Urlacher did it all, from calling the defensive adjustments, to run stuffing, blitzing, and playing the deep center in zone-2 coverages. He helped Chicago lead the league with only 16.5 points per game allowed, and he has them in the Summer Bowl, where he will absolutely be a concern for Seattle’s offensive coaching staff.
Rookie of the Year: This one was a run-away vote, with Frank Gore of Nashville garnering every single first place vote. Gore came into the space which had been occupied by 4-time rushing champion Ahman Green and immediately took control of expectations and the role of lead back for the Knights. His 1,286 yards were not the highest total for a rookie in USFL History (an honor which Herschel Walker has held ever since his 1983 debut) but they were enough to edge Tiki Barber of Boston for the rushing crown this season. During his rookie campaign, Gore topped 100 yards on the ground 7 times in 14 games, the most 100-yard games of any rusher this year. It was not particularly close in the voting, despite strong rookie campaigns from LB Lofa Tatupu of Los Angeles, WR Vince Jackson of Pittsburgh, and LB Cameron Wake of Washington.
Coach of the Year: Another contested category as the number of teams who jumped from also-ran to playoff contenders was impressive this year. Votes were garnered by Baltimore’s Tom Coughlin, Michigan’s Dick LeBeau, and Houston’s Wade Phillips, but the leader in votes and the 2005 Coach of the Year goes to Oakland’s Dennis Green. Green ended one of the league’s longest playoff droughts this year by capturing the Pacific Division title for his 8-6 Oakland Invader squad, a 4-game improvement over the 4-10 squad from 2004. The division title marks the first time Oakland has qualified for the playoffs since 1998, a painful 7 season stretch of futility. The Invaders came together under Green, improving on both sides of the ball, with their 27.9 PPG on offense a solid 8 points per game better than in 2004. While there were certainly many deserving candidates, only Green came away this year with a division title, and so, Green also comes away with the Coach of the Year award.
And, of course, the All-USFL team, which is never without some controversy, was also highlighted, with video montages of each player. This year was a particularly difficult year and we could create a very solid team simply from those who missed out on being named. We now present your 2005 All-USFL team, and then will highlight some of the deserving players who simply could not fit in to the limited roster of the honor:
QB: Kerry Collins (OHI), Drew Brees (MGN), Drew Bledsoe (BOS)
HB: Frank Gore (NSH-rookie), Tiki Barber (BOS), Ron Dayne (BAL)
FB: Justin Green (BOS-rookie)
TE: Stephen Alexander (OHI), Adrian Cooper (MEM)
WR: Chad Ochocinco (BOS), Antonio Freeman (HOU), Hines Ward (MGN),
Joey Galloway (OHI), David Boston (SEA)
OT: Jonathan Ogden (LA), Lomas Brown (SEA), Matt Willig (MGN)
OG: Jamie Nails (BOS), Vince Manuwai (SEA), Ruben Brown (PHI)
C: Trey Teague (TBY), Mike Flynn (SEA)
DE: Anthony Weaver (CHI), Mike Rucker (BIR), Jevon Kearse (LA)
DT: Sean Gilbert (TBY), Pat Williams (ORL), Joe Salave’a (OAK)
LB: Brian Urlacher (CHI), Kevin Mitchell (TBY), Kerwin Bell (DEN), Joey Porter (LV),
Mike Vrabel (JAX), Takeo Spikes (SEA)
CB: Deion Sanders (NJ), Charles Woodson (WSH, Quentin Jammer (PHI),
Will Allen (OAK)
SS: Pearson Prioleau (OAK), Adam Archuleta (BAL)
FS: Will Allen (OAK), Anhony Dorsett (PHI)
K: Tim Seder (CHI)
P: Josh Miller (TBY)
A lot of great players on this list, to be sure, but a lot of big names and big seasons left off the roster as well. It is odd to see an All-USFL team without Eddie George, Randy Moss, Jim Pyne, or James Farrior, especially with the strong years each have had. Add to the list of “close but no cigar” seasons those of Houston QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle TE Ken Dilger, WR Rashaun Woods of Jacksonville, DE Regan Upshaw of Philadelphia, Chicago DT Brentson Buckner, and two very good strong safeties, Washington’s Bob Sanders and Memphis’s Coy Wire.
Expansion Draft Adds New Wrinkle to USFL Offseason
There is no doubt but that the 2006 Expansion Draft is making life harder for all 24 USFL GM’s this offseason. Not only do teams need to be concerned about roster holes created by retirement and free agency, or prepare for the 2006 Collegiate and Territorial Drafts, but now they have to take into account the reality that November’s expansion draft will mean that only 12 players from each team are guaranteed to be back next year.
The Expansion draft is designed in such a way that each team initially can protect only 12 players, meaning that 10 starters and nearly all backups will be open to be selected by Atlanta and St. Louis. A team can lose up to 5 players from their roster, and each time a player is selected they get to protect a new player, but losing 5 starters from a roster, which almost certainly will happen to each club, will be a huge issue for most teams. So how do you strategize? What do you do to protect your team. We spoke with 12 of the league’s 24 general managers, and these are the strategies that most clubs seem to be implementing, not all for each team, but from these five strategies you will see the patterns on rosters when the list of protected players is released in September.
1. Key Position Strategy
The first of the major strategies being used, and perhaps the most common, is to identify several “high impact” positions on the roster and to focus on protecting starters, and in some cases backups, in those positions. The most commonly-cited position, as you would expect, is QB, and the reality is that we do not expect any team with a settled QB position to leave that QB unprotected. Following the QB we find a lot of emphasis on defensive end (particularly left end), cornerback, halfback, wide receiver, middle linebacker, and strong safety. If there is any position that Atlanta and St. Louis will have no trouble finding it is punter, followed by kicker. Do not expect to see a lot of special teams players protected regardless of the system.
2. Veteran Roster Strategy
Another popular strategy which several GM’s emphasized to us was the idea of protecting veteran leadership. This can be done in tandem with the Key Position strategy, or could be independent of it. The key here is to look over the roster and determine which veterans are leaders on the team, capable of mentoring younger players, and keeping the locker room intact even with a lot of new faces on teams. Protecting veterans often also means protecting the highest paid players on the team, which can produce its own issues if teams must consider their cap space, so there is a chance that even teams using this strategy may identify several veterans on large contracts who could be left unprotected.
3. Top Performer Strategy
This strategy goes without saying, however it varies from both the Veteran and Key Position strategies in one key way, the focus is on results, not positions or contracts. If a team has one of the league’s best tight ends, guards, or outside linebackers, they may protect that player despite those positions being generally considered less essential than QB or DE. What this essentially means is that even if teams predominantly stick to one of the other strategies, they are not going to let an All-USFL caliber player go unprotected, regardless of position. Does this mean that punter Josh Miller or kicker Tim Seder are safe, probably not, but of the 22 starters across each roster Atlanta and St. Louis should not expect to sign All-USFL players at any position.
4. Sweet Spot Strategy
This is an intriguing option, one that was discussed by only 2 of the 12 GM’s we spoke with. The plan here is to focus on players with between 3-7 years of experience. The belief is that this period is the sweet spot between learning the pro game and the eventual deterioration of the body due to the rigors of the game. Players who are now fully engaged in leadership, and at their physical and performance peak on each club. Will this strategy mean that a Drew Bledsoe or Eddie George goes unprotected simply because they are outside of this range? Unlikely, but it could be the difference between protecting a team’s defensive captain vs. the younger, more physical defensive player in his 3rd or 4th year.
5. Contract Longevity Strategy
This is unlikely to be the predominant strategy taken by teams, but when it comes down to tough decisions between two players, we could see this come into play. The idea is to protect the player who has 3-4 years left on their contract and not the guy who could be a free agent at the end of 2006. It makes sense. Why protect a player, get only 1 year from them, and then see them leave? Of course, what complicates this even more is the fact that there will be another round of expansion drafting in 2008, so even players with 4-5 years on their contracts may not be staying through both rounds. Expect this to come into play only in cases where teams have two players of more or less equal ability, say two cornerbacks or two guards, and want to protect one. This means players on the 2006 free agent list (those whose contracts run out next year) may be available to the two expansion clubs.
A lot of options, but the reality is that both Atlanta and St. Louis are going to have to have their own strategies as well. Unlikely to sign any top performers, they must decide whether to build their team around veterans, young athletic players, or a mix of the two. Add in questions of leadership, team cohesion, and the style of play that both clubs want to implement, and you have a very complex puzzle to solve. That puzzle will start to take shape with free agency in 2 weeks, as we expect both Jay Gruden and Art Shell to push for some early signings before the Expansion Draft, but with 30 players for each team coming from the expansion draft, we expect that will be where the meat of the roster will be built.
So, here we are, only days before Summer Bowl 2006 and we find ourselves with two very different stories to be told. From the East we have the Chicago Machine, who rode their #1 defense and a conservative offense to the #1 seed. From the West we have the Seattle Dragons, who finished the regular season at 6-8, but who have built up a strong following as the underdog team of the playoffs, beating all three Western Conference division champs on the road to get to Houston and the Summer Bowl. Las Vegas, as predicted, has made Chicago a strong favorite, a 7-point favorite, to take the trophy for the first time, and yet, popular sentiment stands with Seattle, who have captured the attention of the nation with their unanticipated and unprecedented playoff success.
As we have done with past games, we look at the tale of the tape, and, just as we have with each Seattle matchup, the opponent comes out on top. Chicago clearly looks like the stronger club and their 11-3 record this season seems pretty clear evidence that they are not a team to be overlooked, but we have been wrong about Seattle week after week, and so we wonder if there is not just a little magic in their postseason run, magic that makes the numbers unimportant. Still, we should at least provide you with the basics:
PASSING: Byron Leftwich has the higher QBR (101.9 vs. George’s 84.1), but Jeff George has thrown for more yards (3,000 to 2,978), but we have to remember that Cody Pickett got several starts while Leftwich was injured early in the season. The reality is that Seattle uses the vertical game far more than Chicago, which prefers more of a ball-control offense, using Curtis Conway and Donald Driver primarily on mid-range and shorter routes. Judging what Driver does against what David Boston does is like comparing a solid pickup truck to a 2-seat roadster. You have to know what you want out of the car to determine which is better suited to the task. We call this category even, since both teams have the type of passing game that meets their goals.
RUSHING: Here again we have a contrast of styles, Chicago using a 2 back system with Michael Turner and Brian Westbrook, while Seattle depends on Corey Dillon, suing backup Darren Sproles essentially for his receiving and special teams skills. That said, Sproles is an x-factor, as Westbrook can be, and either one can break a short screen into an 80-yard score. But, when push comes to shove, and you want to either gain that key third-and-short, or kill the clock at the end of the game, Corey Dillon is a better option. We give a slight edge to Seattle on that account.
OFFENSIVE SCHEME: When it comes to drawing up a coherent offensive strategy, we have to give the edge to Marty Mornhinweg. Chicago is not the Ohio Glory or Boston Cannons, trying to blow teams out, we know that. Their goal is to hold the ball, take advantage of short fields provided by the D, slow down the pace of the game, and limit opposition possessions. They are no slouches when it comes to scoring, finishing 4th in the league with 382 points this season, but they do this without the flash and fireworks of many of the other league-leading offenses. Seattle has the lower-scoring, but more explosive offense. They often rely on big plays from Byron Leftwich to get the job done. Sustained drives are harder to come by, and a slow rate of play does not help them. We give the edge here to Chicago as the more consistent and more coherent offense.
PASS RUSH: Well, this one is obvious. Anthony Weaver’s 24 sacks are only 7 short of Seattle’s total as a team. The Dragons recorded only 31 sacks all season, while Chicago led the league with 77. That is a huge disparity, and in a game where pressure is always a factor, Chicago can bring the heat and put the screws on Byron Leftwich in a way that the Dragons simply cannot imitate. Advantage Chicago.
RUN DEFENSE: Another huge advantage for the Machine. Chicago’s rush defense was the best in the league by a large margin, limiting teams to only 923 yards all year (the 2nd best was Boston at 1,117). There will be few easy runs for Corey Dillon in the Summer Bowl. Seattle’s run defense was not bad, about middle of the pack, allowing 1,258 yards in 14 games, and they have played well in the post-season, helping to contain Frank Gore and Ricky Williams, but Chicago is capable of manhandling the O-line in the run game, and that is a clear advantage for them.
SECONDARY: If Byron Leftwich can get protection, there is hay to be made against Chicago’s secondary. Of course, Chicago, often playing with a lead, and playing as they do against the run, did tend to see a lot more passing than most teams, so it is hard to gauge whether or not their 3,664 yards allowed is a bad thing or a sign that they forced teams to throw while playing from behind. Seattle was right there with Chicago at 3,620, only one place better than the Machine, but the Dragons saw a lot fewer frantic passing attacks than the Machine. Even with relatively even numbers, we have to give Chicago the advantage here.
DEFENSIVE SCHEME: Again, Chicago gets the advantage. How could they not with the #1 defense in the league? They are brutal against the run, led by Brian Urlacher and Tommy Polley in the LB Corps. They have a solid center with Brentson Buckner and Ted Washington clogging up the running lanes, and they have a SS in Anthony Prior who is not afraid to hit and hit hard. Seattle’s scheme depends on a lot of coverage adjustments. Linebackers Takeo Spikes, Godfrey Miles and Piso Tinoisamoa play a large part in pass coverage, but the biggest piece of the puzzle for Seattle is CB Marcus Truffant’s ability to take away a team’s top receiver. Truffant has been solid most weeks, but has had some gaffs as well. But, here is where the difference in styles leans towards Chicago. Seattle has one key receiver to watch, David Boston, but Chicago is happy to switch between Driver, Conway, and TE Jim Kliensasser, depending on coverage. That minimizes Truffant’s effectiveness, because the Machine will just look elsewhere.
COACHING: We like both head coaches, but the advantage here might be at the coordinator level. Marvin Lewis does a bit of everything, and he clearly is a strong motivator of his men, as seen in the Seattle playoff run. Marty Mornhinweg tends to focus more on overall gameplan, and then on offensive strategy on gameday, while Ron Rivera, Chicago’s DC (and a top candidate for the job in Pittsburgh next year), is the architect of Chicago’s devastating defense. That division of labor can be an advantage for the Machine, but if the Dragons can keep the game close, Lewis’s motivational skills could help Seattle make a final push.
OUR PICK: This is so frustrating. Week after week we have picked against Seattle (as have most others, it is not just us), and week after week the Dragons have made us look bad. And yet, when we look at this matchup it is nearly impossible not to expect Chicago to win this game. This is a defense that held down the Stars and the Bandits, a team that scored 41 against the Nashville Knights, beat the defending champs by 17, and allowed only 16.5 points per game while scoring 27.3. They come in with an 11-3 record (13-3 with their two playoff wins). Meanwhile this Seattle team had two separate 4-game losing streaks this year, but somehow have found a way to win 6 in a row, three in the regular season and 3 in the playoffs. We cannot discount what that means.
So, do we get on the bandwagon and hope for a fairy tale ending for the Dragons, or do we go with team Evil Stepmother and pick the team that appears to be better across the board. As much as we love a good story, and Seattle’s run has been a great one, we have to go with the obvious answer here. Chicago is the better team. Our pick is that the clock strikes midnight for Cinderella and the Machine bring home the John Bassett Trophy to the Windy City. Chicago 23-13.
LET’S GO DRAGONS!!!!
Also, you said 2006 instead of 2005.