Seven weeks down, seven to go in this 2005 USFL season and so many stories to report on. We have surprise success stories in Baltimore, Jacksonville, Memphis, Oakland and Orlando. We have shocking declines for both Summer Bowl participants from 2004. We have new stars rising, and we have some teams scratching their heads as to where it all went wrong. In this very special Midseason Report edition of This Week in the USFL we will look at it all, but first, let’s not ignore the stories of Week 7, which included some amazing games, a couple of upsets, and some nail-biting results. Let’s get to it.
INVADERS 31 EXPRESS 37 OVERTIME
There have been some great rivalry games between the LA Express (both incarnations) and the Oakland Invaders, but the California Derby has rarely been as dynamic as this week’s shootout between the division-leaders from NorCal and their rivals from SoCal.
Stars of the game are many: Oakland QB Trent Green (21/43 for 260 Yards and 3 Tds), WR Keyshawn Johnson (126 Yds), DE Jevon Kearse (2 sacks) and Oakland LB Roosevelt Colvin. But, the star of the game was clear, Express backup QB Quincy Carter, who entered the game in the 2nd quarter after Cade McNown went down on a brutal hit from Israel Idonije and proceeded to throw for 4 TD passes, including a true Hail Mary to Keyshawn in the waning seconds and, of course, the game winner in overtime.
LA had taken an early 10-6 lead on a McNown to Tory Holt 33-yard deep ball when Idonije slammed McNown to the ground just as he tried to release the ball. The play was ruled an incomplete pass, but McCown had trouble catching his breath, and needed help to the sideline (He would later be diagnosed with 2 cracked ribs and an abdominal tear). Quincy Carter would have to go the rest of the way.
LA largely controlled the clock and the game through three quarters, adding to their lead with a Brandon Manumaleuna TD from Carter in the third. At 17-6, there was little expectation that either team would reach 30 points, but a 5 TD fourth quarter was a thing of beauty for the crowd of just under 41,000 at Farmers Insurance Field. Not so much for the defensive coordinators of either team, but for the fans it was an amazing display.
It began with Oakland getting another field goal from Joe Nedney, his 3rd of the day. LA responded quickly with a 5-play drive that ended when Carter hit Tory Holt from 6 yards out to go up 24-9. At this point some of the few Oakland faithful who were at the stadium started to question whether or not to stick around for the rest of the game. But those who did watched as Oakland scored on three consecutive fast-strike drives to not only come back, but to take the lead.
The first was a 4-play drive that included a 17-yard run by Justin Fargas, a 30 yard catch by Marty Booker, and a scoring toss from Green to Booker from the 10. Oakland, now down by only 8, caught LA by surprise with an onside kick from the standard kicking formation. Recovered by TE Joel Dreesen, Oakland wasted no time, scoring in 3 plays, the big one being Dreesen again, a 34-yard TD reception from Green. The Invaders went for 2 and suddenly the game was tied at 24. LA, still reeling from the quick 15 points put up by their rival, went 3-and-out on the next drive, and Oakland took over with just over 2 minutes to play. It would take them 1:22 to score, Green hitting a third straight drive-ending TD toss, this time to Taylor Jacobs, and suddenly the Express were down 31-24 with only 52 seconds left.
LA got the ball and used 2 of their time outs quickly as they threw two balls to the middle of the field to get across their own 40. An incompletion and then a short pass to L.J. Smith, in which he failed to get out of bounds, led to LA using their final time out with only 11 seconds to play. They had a 3rd and 8 on their own 42, but time was fleeting. Oakland got into a 3-man deep zone and rushed only 3. Carter took the snap in the shotgun, rolled slightly to his right, and it was clear he was not going for the first down. He had Tory Holt, Keyshawn Johnson, and Dez White all racing towards the endzone, and he unleashed a high-arcing rainbow of a pass, a Hail Mary. The ball and the receivers arrived at the goalline at the same time. 4 defenders and 3 receivers all seemed to jump in unison, but Keyshawn Johnson jumped the highest, and miraculously came away with the ball. A simple PAT kick from Steve Christie and the game was tied. LA squibbed it to Oakland and the game went to overtime.
Oakland had their chance in overtime, winning the toss and taking the ball first. They moved it well initially, but bogged down between the 40’s and were forced to punt to the Express. LA was now fully energized by the last second tying score and they cut through the Oakland defense with little resistance. 6 plays into the drive, and already in field goal range, Carter found Marty Booker wide open after a blown coverage by the Invaders and Booker scored what would be the winning TD, a corner route from the 32.
It was a game with drama, big plays, and major heroics from the LA quarterback. With Cade McNown likely out for a month or longer, Carter will now get his chance to make a case for the starting position in LA. The Express sit one game behind Oakland, but now hold a key tiebreaker thanks to the home win. Oakland, which fought so hard to get back in the game and take the lead, looked exhausted as they went down the tunnel in defeat. They will have to show resilience and try to rebound next week as they travel across country to Orlando to face a surprising Renegade squad.
GAMBLERS 30 GOLD 24 OVERTIME
Another great game in the Western Conference as the top 2 teams in the Southwest Division clashed at Invesco Field. Houston also needed a final minute TD to tie the score and go to overtime. They got it from WR Roy Williams in the waning seconds of the game, and, just like LA, their momentum carried over to the extra period, where QB Matt Hasselbeck hit Drew Bennett for the game winner in the first possession of overtime.
KNIGHTS 21 SHOWBOATS 24
Memphis builds up a 24-10 lead and holds off the Nashville comeback to take over first place in the Southern Division. Cadillac Williams contributed 105 yards and a TD against the Nashville defense, as Heath Shuler only threw to 4 receivers on the day. The Showboats got outgained 338-276, but scored when given opportunities. Nashville scored 11 points in the final quarter, but it was too little and too late for the comeback.
BLITZ 16 BANDITS 13
Baltimore’s defense came up big as Tampa Bay struggled to run the ball without Willis McGahee. Ben Roethlisberger went 23 of 33 for 409 yards in his biggest outing of his young career. Two picks tarnished his stats but the W went to Baltimore thanks to a 48-yard TD toss in the final quarter as the Blitz move to 5-2 at the halfway point of the season.
MACHINE 28 FEDERALS 31 OVERTIME
Another overtime thriller in the USFL as Chicago scores with 42 seconds to play, but cannot find the endzone in overtime. Jeff George would throw 4 TDs on the day, including a 56-yarder to Curtis Conway, but in the end, Washington, with Jon Kitna behind the wheel, did what they needed to do to get the home W, kicking the game winner in overtime to knock off the Machine and move to 5-2.
CANNONS 41 MAULERS 22
Pittsburgh continues to struggle on offense, and their defense also had a rough day as Drew Bledsoe threw for 324 and 3 scores while Tiki Barber had a huge game, rushing 23 times for 120 and then catching both a 74 yard TD and a 49-yard pass to break the back of the Maulers.
GLORY 30 GENERALS 14
New Jersey had a 14-10 lead early in the second quarter but the Glory opened up the throttle on their offense and scored the final 23 points in the game as they blew past the homestanding Generals. Eddie George was huge, with 136 yards on 23 carries, and the defense also played well, picking off two Tom Brady passes on their way to their 6th victory on the season.
RENEGADES 27 PANTHERS 34
Two of the league’s pleasant surprises met at Ford Field and the homestanding Panthers held on to win thanks to a botched PAT that forced Orlando to go for a TD and not a field goal late in the game. Michigan got 301 yards and 3 scores from Drew Brees, including 127 and 2 scores from top receiver Hines Ward. Ladell Betts had one of his better games as well, with 72 yards on only 15 carries. For Orlando, QB Jeff Blake kept the Renegades init with 240 yards passing and 122 rushing, including a 91-yard bootleg run that completely faked out the Panthers.
STARS 24 BULLS 28
Jacksonville needed 2 late scores to pull this one out, but they got them in the form of TDs from Josh McCown to Rashaun Woods and JebPutzier in the final 8 minutes of play. McCown started for the injured Delhomme, and went 16 of 31 for 241 and two TDs, but the hero of the day was HB Antowain Smith, who rushed 24 times for 143 and 2 scores as the Bulls move to 4-3 and get right back into the thick of the Southeastern Division race.
BREAKERS 37 STALLIONS 17
Jason Campbell continued to struggle as Eli Manning found his footing for a 26 of 32 day that produced 312 yards and 2 scores. Troy Davis and Olandis Gary combined for 105 yards, with Davis scoring twice to lead the Breakers to an easy win over a very disjointed Stallions squad.
OUTLAWS 21 WRANGLERS 28
Arizona got their 2nd win on the season thanks to 130 yards and 2 scores from Santana Moss. With Jeff Lewis back under center, Texas struggled despite 104 yards from T.J. Duckett, as Lewis threw 3 picks on the day. The Outlaws controlled the clock (35:19-24:41) but could not turn possession into points or stop Moss from scoring on deep balls from Jake Plummer.
DRAGONS 27 THUNDER 17
The Dragons built up a 17-3 lead in the first half and then coasted to their third straight win, the second under backup Cody Pickett, as the former Husky threw for 3 scores, two going to David Boston. Las Vegas struggled all day with 3rd down, converting only 1 of 11 against the Dragon defense. Seattle, once 0-4, has now rattled off 3 straight wins and find themselves in playoff contention at the midway point of the year.
Cody Pickett Proving Himself
His role was pretty clear, stand next to the coaches and send the signals in to Byron Leftwich. Cody Pickett, the U-Dub product who did not see a single snap behind Leftwich last year in Seattle, was to be a backup, with Leftwich the reigning Rookie of the Year in 2004, the future superstar of the Dragons. Pickett was a relatively easy signing, a mid-round pick who would be able to stay close to home in Seattle. But when Leftwich went down with a dislocated finger, it meant Pickett would take the field. He came on in relief in Week 5 and scored the winning TD to give Seattle their first win of the season. He then started weeks 6 and 7, and, what did he do? Nothing more than throw for 3 touchdowns in each game without throwing a pick yet. He also won both games, helping Seattle move to 3-4, just one game under. 500.
So, with Leftwich now listed as questionable, do we for sure see Pickett returning to clipboard duty? Very likely this week could be his final week starting a game, but with the expansion draft coming this offseason, what Prichett has done in his short stint as the Dragons’ starter is to create a market for his skills and a conundrum for the Dragons. They are going to return to Leftwich as the starter, this seems certain, but Prichett may have just put on an interview tape that will make St. Louis and Atlanta take notice. Is 3 games enough to make his case and become a contender to start for either club? Could Seattle opt to trade him to another team before the season ends, a team that would protect him from the expansion draft? Based on 2004, when he simply held the clipboard, there would be no way that any team would protect his rights, but after this short stretch of games, we could easily see a team like Texas, Las Vegas, or even Pittsburgh, take a shot on the QB, protect him and project him as their starter.
Jeff Blake impresses in Loss
The Renegades may have lost this week to the Panthers, but QB Jeff Blake impressed fans and coaches once again. It seems Orlando, which was considered to have one of the shakier QB situations after failing to sign rookie Alex Smith of Utah, now appears to have found a starter that they can work with. Blake is not one of the highest rated passers, in fact his current QB Rating of 85.4 is in the bottom quartile of league starters, ahead of Jeff George, Charlie Batch, Aaron Brooks, and Jason Campbell, but behind players like Josh McCown, Todd Collins, Alex Van Pelt, and Eli Manning. What has made Blake dangerous is his ability to run the ball as well as throw it.
In the mold of a younger Jake Plummer, Blake is leading the league with 270 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs. Most of these yards have occurred in the past 3 weeks, including his dazzling 94-yard TD run this week and his 98-yard, 2 TD performance in Week 6. If Coach Thomas can find a way to build Blake’s running into the game plan, he could have a serious weapon on his hands. Blake started 9 games in 2004, throwing for 13 TDs to 7 picks, and averaging 194 yards a game. This year he is on pace for 18 TDs and his per-game average is up to 228 yards. If Blake can add scripted runs like the bootleg this week into the gameplan, and if he can minimize his interceptions, he could be a big piece of Orlando’s plans moving forward.
Midseason Recap
Biggest surprises
We just mentioned Jeff Blake and the Renegades, and they are certainly one of the season’s biggest surprises. As we reach the midway point, let’s look at the surprise stories of the year, starting with our Top 5 Pleasant Surprises.
Seattle’s turnaround
The first month of the season was a disaster for the Dragons, but their season seems to have turned around and now the question is whether or not this is a sign that the club needs to stick with 2nd year QB Cody Pritchett, who has won all 3 games, or go back to Byron Leftwich, the darling of the past two years. If Seattle can win next week against the Bandits, again with Prichett at the helm, they may have a very tough decision on their minds as they try to make a miraculous comeback from an 0-4 start.
Matt Hasselbeck’s Comeback Season
It is absolutely the feel good story of the season. After suffering a season-ending injury last year, Hasselbeck is coming back with his best season as a pro. He is on pace for a 4,000 yard season, which would be his first and the first the Gamblers have seen since Jim Kelly retired. He already has 16 touchdowns, which is well ahead of his pace in any past season in Houston. His QBR of 114.2 marks the first time he has been over 100 this late into a season. Better yet, the Gamblers are sitting at 5-2 and share the lead of their division, so Hasselbeck’s personal achievements are aligned with the team’s goals as well.
Orlando, Memphis, and Michigan in the Mix
In the preseason the general consensus is that the Renegades, Showboats, and Panthers were very likely to be bringing up the rear in their divisions and fighting for the right to draft first among the returning USFL clubs in next year’s College Draft. What we have instead are three clubs that are right in the mix in their divisions. Orlando is only ½ game behind the three 4-3 co-leaders of the Southeast Division at 3-3-1, Memphis sits atop the Southern Division with the same record, and Michigan is in 3rd place, but only 1 game behind Chicago, with their 4-3 record seven weeks in. Each has taken a different path, but all three are exceeding expectations with rosters that were considered among the weakest in the leagues. Whether it is Orlando’s newfound dual threat QB, Memphis’s Top 10 scoring defense, or Michigan’s Top 5 offense, all three clubs have figured out what they can do well and have found ways to get early success. Can they all keep this up over the long haul to Week 14? We shall see, but to be in the mix after 7 weeks is already a surprises for fans in these three USFL markets.
Frank Gore’s Rookie Success
It is certainly not unheard of for a rookie HB to have success. Of the skill positions on offense, halfback is usually the one with the shortest onboarding period, and the first to develop into a reliable starter. What is surprising is that with bigger name backs in the draft and in the league, backs like Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, and even Maurice Clarett, taken ahead of Gore, it is the Miami product who is outshining them all, and not a moment too soon for Nashville’s fans. Gore is making it easy to forget that Nashville had the league rushing leader on their squad last year in Ahman Green. With 7 weeks down, Gore trailes Ahman Green by only 9 yards for 3rd in the league rushing race, and is only 41 yards behind the current league leader, Eddie George. That is a testament to the Knights’ system, but also to Gore as well.
The Baltimore Blitz Finding Ways to Win
They do not have the league’s best offense, and are not a star-studded defensive powerhouse, they just keep winning games. Baltimore is sitting at 5-2 after 7 games, when pretty much everyone saw them as the obvious basement dweller in a competitive Northeast Division that holds the defending league champions. What Baltimore has done, through an offense that is methodical and rarely makes big mistakes, and a defense that has been a true team effort, is one of the best stories of the year.
We really should concentrate on that defense to begin with. Ranked #1 in the league by allowing only 17.3 PPG, and 2nd against the rush with only 76.9 YPG allowed, the Blitz are defying the odds. Yes, there is talent here, whether it is James Farrior and Mike Maslowski at LB, or Adam Archuletta and Tyrone Bell in the secondary, but this is not a defense that is full of All-USFL performers. Their sack leader is Maslowski, and their top D, Chuckie Nwokorie, has only 2 sacks. Their interception leaders each have 1 pick, so it is not that this defense is forcing takeaways or pressuring the QB. They simply are not giving up big plays. Coach Tom Coughlin preaches consistency and that each man knows his role, and that message has gotten through to this squad, leading to results.
And, of course, with successes there are also disappointments. Here is our list of the 5 disappointing outcomes of the first half of the season, the players and teams that are not where we thought they would be.
Jason Campbell’s rough introduction to the USFL.
Arriving in Birmingham from Auburn, Campbell knew there would be pressure to perform. Taking over a team that has been Brett Favre’s club for over a decade would not be easy. But it has definitely not gone the way Campbell would like. He missed 2 games due to an early season injury, and while his 5 games have not been entirely horrible (7 Tds to 5 Ints), he currently has the 2nd worst QB Rating of any Week 1 starter. His 59.4 QBR is only ahead of Jeff Lewis, another QB who is trying to return to form after an early season injury. Birmingham is 0-7 at the midway point, and there does not seem to be a clear set of adjustments the Stallions can make to improve their competitiveness. It may just be a long season in Birmingham, one followed by a need to rebuild the team around Campbell.
New Jersey’s Post Championship Hangover
A 3-4 record is not the end of the world, but it is also not what the Generals expected of themselves when the season began. And this has not been helped by the resurgence of the Philadelphia Stars and the unexpected success of the Baltimore Blitz. New Jersey currently sits in last place in the division and is, in fact, the only club in the entire Eastern Conference with a losing record. That cannot sit well with Coach Parcells, or with Tom Brady, who led these Generals to their second title last season. There is certainly time to turn the ship around and perhaps make a run to the playoffs in a very competitive Northeast Division, but the Generals have suffered all season from some of the secondary players who left in free agency, as well as the enormous gap left when Sack Legend Phil Hansen retired. The generals currently sit in the middle of the pack in nearly every major statistical category except pass defense (3rd in the league). They are giving up 23.3 points per game, but scoring only 21. Their passing game is ranked 20th, and their run defense, once a staple of the Generals, is 21st in the league. If the Generals are going to make a run, they are going to have to figure these issues out quickly.
Terrell Davis’s Declining Production
We understand that there are more issues in Pittsburgh than Terrell Davis’s lack of success this year, but we are looking at possibly a major decline for the 30-year old back. What is worse is that it fits a narrative about the wall halfbacks hit at 30 which makes fans more than anxious about Davis’s future production. Davis has rushed for over 1,000 yards every year since 1996 (We are counting his 1998 year when he had 976 yards before being rested in Week 16). This year he is barely on pace for 800. His 3.5 yards per carry are well below his career average of 4.1, and a full half yard below his 2004 average. None of these are good signs. Of course, with Charlie Batch missing 3 games, we could expect some decline in production since teams felt they could easily load the box and force Alex Van Pelt to carry the Mauler offense, but that is not enough to explain how Davis has struggled. The past 3 weeks he has not topped 50 yards in any game. Is this a sign that he has hit the legendary HB Wall?
Eli Manning’s Growing Pains
After spending his entire rookie season (other than a few injury-related appearances) this was expected to be Manning’s year. The much anticipated decision as to the season start was not made until the Friday before opening games, and Manning was named the starting QB over veteran Trent Dilfer. With the Breakers sitting at 2-4-1, it seems safe to say that the season has not gone the way Breaker fans, or Manning himself, would like. Too many picks and not enough scoring was the story early, and while Manning has had a couple of solid outings in the past three weeks, the concern is still there that he is not reading his receiver routes well, not making good choices, and missing on open receivers.
The good news is that he is completing just over 70% of his passes, but that is also largely due to his tendency to dump the ball down and shy away from the deep ball. He has 13 TD’s but also 12 picks, which is not the ratio you want. Maybe all of this is growing pains. Maybe it is the fact that the Breaker’s top receiver is far better suited to be a slot guy than the main target, or that the club simply does not have a credible run threat to take pressure off the QB position. All that may be true, but for Manning, a local hero and son of a New Orleans legend, that may not be good enough.
Arizona’s Defensive Collapse
In 2004, the Arizona Wranglers used a staunch defense and a newfound run game to claim the Southwest Division title and the #1 seed in the playoffs. In the postseason they used both, along with home field advantage (and the heat of Phoenix in July) to knock off the Breakers and Dragons on their way to the Summer Bowl. So, what happened this year? Well, we can understand the failings of their run game. Stephen Davis retired after resurrecting Arizona’s dreams of a run game, and while the Wranglers brought in Larry Johnson and Duce Staley to build up their run game, both of those players were let go by their former teams, so perhaps they were not as valuable as Arizona imagined.
No, the bigger mystery is how a defense that helped the Wranglers leapfrog the rest of the Western Conference has seemingly fallen completely to pieces. Yes, the Wranglers lost Winfred Tubbs to retirement and Steve Tovar to free agency, but this is a defense that still had Lance Briggs, Karlos Dansby, and Corey Miller. They even brought in Kevin Hardy after a quasi-retirement. They still have what should be the best 1-2-3 combo of corners in the game with Jimmy Williams, Philippi Sparks, and Asante Samuel. They still have Jason Peter in the middle, and a solid DE combo of Gary Walker and Chike Okeafor. So why is Arizona ranked 23rd in yards allowed after 7 weeks, and dead last in the league in scoring D, allowing nearly 31 points per game? That is the mystery, and the frustration we see in the desert. Even at 2-5, the Wranglers could potentially make a playoff run, but not unless they can rediscover the defense that helped them come 1 game from a title last season.
And we finish our initial review of the first half of 2005 with our five rising stars, players who are coming on and making a name for themselves this season. These are players to watch over the final 7 weeks, and contributors whose performances may help them stay protected as the Expansion Draft looms.
Jacksonville WR Rashaud Woods
With Anquon Boldin firmly established as the #1 receiver, the Bulls went out and signed Donald Hayes away from New Jersey in an attempt to find a true #2. What they apparently did not realize, what we all failed to realize, is that Rashaun Woods could fill that spot very nicely. Woods had a great camp and beat out Hayes for the #2 position, and since the start of the season he has actually been more like a #1 than a 2. He has more targets than Boldin (59 to 41), more catches (41 to 27), more yards, by double (731-308) and a 17.8 YPC average to boot. Woods is becoming the favorite target of Josh McNown and Jake Delhomme, and, with 4 more seasons on his contract, could be very valuable to the Bulls as they enter the Expansion Draft.
Memphis DE Dameion Jeffries
Maybe it’s the presence of Julius Peppers on the same defense, maybe it is the fact that Memphis has not had a winning season since 2002, or maybe it is just that he is not a press-savvy guy, but Dameion Jeffries has been pretty good for a pretty long time, but is only really getting noticed this season. Jeffries has 8 sacks in the first 7 games this year, on pace for 16 for the season, which would be his career high, and yet if you ask most folks outside of the greater Memphis area, and many within it, who the sack leader for the Showboats is, they are very likely to say Julius Peppers. Well, Jeffries has twice the sacks as Peppers, and is well on his way to a 6th season with double digit sacks. Not bad for a guy most folks cannot name when asked about Memphis’s rise to a top 10 scoring defense this year.
Oakland LB Roosevelt Colvin
A lot of noise has been made about the rise of Oakland’s offense, and that is well deserved, but the defense has also made some strides towards being a contributor to Oakland’s success, and a big part of that is 6-year veteran Roosevelt Colvin. Colvin had a breakout season in 2003, with 110 tackles, but regresses last year, in part due to injury, finishing with only 79 tackles in yet another losing season for the Invaders. This season he is on pace for 100+ tackles, and he already has 3 sacks on the year, more than in any complete season since coming to the league. Colvin leeds a LB corps that regularly rotates 5 players into the three on-field positions. Playing alongside Dan Morgan, Henri Crockett, Kailee Wong, and Derrick Rodgers, Colvin has become the guy who sets the tone for the Invaders on defense. Never afraid to hit, or to take that tough angle to make the play. It is a hustle that fans in Oakland are appreciating this year.
Nashville HB Frank Gore
When Ahman Green left in free agency, fans in Nashville were distraught. The entire offense of the Knights is built on a strong run game and the play action it allows Todd Collins to enjoy. Frank Gore was a solid back at Miami, but no one expected he could come into the league and become a Top 5 rusher in his rookie year. Kudos in part to the Knights offensive line and to their offensive coaching staff as well, but we have to recognize that Gore is better than advertised. He is averaging 22 attempts per game, 85.6 yards per game, and is on pace to potentially reach 1,200 yards in his rookie season. He has already notched two 100-yard games and is becoming a player that defensive coordinators have to plan around.
Houston WR Roy Williams
The 2nd year receiver out of Texas has had an epiphany. In his rookie campaign, Williams struggled to learn how to deal with zone coverage, catching 29 balls for 388 yards in his rookie campaign. This year the schemes have clicked and Williams already easily surpassed the numbers from his entire 2004 campaign. With 7 weeks down, Williams has 33 receptions for 557 yards and 4 TDs, all better than his entire 2004 season. He is on pace to reach 1,100 yards and could even reach the highly coveted 10 TD range. With the success of Antonio Freeman opposite him, Williams is seeing more and more single coverage, and he is learning how to find holes in zone defenses as well. Before the season we would have expected the Gamblers to protect Freeman and possibly Koren Robinson in the expansion draft, but Roy Williams is making a case for Houston to retain his services beyond this year.
Boston is the latest team to see a player go down for the year as RT Jon Stinchcomb is out with a rupture achilles. As we reported earlier, the LA Express will be without Cade McNown for at least 2-4 weeks after his diagnosis of an abdominal tear with 2 cracked ribs. Oakland will travel to Orlando without top receiver Plaxico Burress as the big receiver is dealing with an ankle injury.
Among those still expected to be out this week, or at least listed as doubtful, we have QB Kordell Stewart (WSH), CB Deltha O’Neal (DEN), HB Willis McGahee (TBY), WR Laverneus Coles (MGN), LT Luke Petigout (JAX), DE John Abraham (SEA), and TE Jeremy Schockey (TBY)
Best Case Scenarios for the 2nd Half of the 2005 Season
Every March begins with optimism, and by midseason there are some fanbases that retain that optimism, while others are beginning to despair. We want to offer each team a bit of hope, so here, for your midseason recalibration of expectations, are our thoughts on the Best Case Scenario for each of the league’s 24 clubs as we prepare for the final half of the year in the USFL.
OHIO GLORY (6-1)
The best case scenario here is that Ohio remains healthy, their offense remains dominant, and they avoid more trap games like that loss to Michigan. This club, if they can wrangle home field, could be ready to claim a 3rd title. Many believe they could have threepeated last year had it not been for some injury issues in the season’s final weeks. They look primed to make a run again, and if they stay healthy, that should be the expectation of the Glory and their fans.
HOUSTON GAMBLERS (5-2)
The Gamblers sit alone atop the Western Conference after 4 straight wins have them at 5-2. Their ideal scenario is one where they continue to see Matt Hasselbeck have an MVP worthy season, they discover enough of a run game to complement the wide open passing game, and their defense continues to provide them with short fields. Houston is for real, but they are not a runaway favorite, so they need to keep building on what has worked so far.
WASHINGTON FEDERALS (5-2)
Somehow, despite injuries, and a few missed opportunities, Washington is on top of a very tight cluster of teams in the Northeast. Their Best Case Scenario involved Baltimore and Philadelphia falling back to earth, and New Jersey remaining significantly flawed. Winning the division would be huge for the Federals, but that is not going to come easy.
BALTIMORE BLITZ (5-2)
The Blitz are already in dreamland with a 5-2 start. Their BCS is that this is not a dream, but a good team that is more than the sum of its parts. They need to see Ron Dayne continue to dominate defenses and Ben Roethlisberger continue to develop into a reliable game changing QB. If the defense can stay at its current level of overachievement, the Blitz could be a real threat.
CHICAGO MACHINE (5-2)
The Machine rely on defnse, and that is fine, they have one of the best in the league, but what Chicago needs to see their BCS develop is for their offense to become more unpredictable, to confuse opponents and occasionally help the defense out by building up leads that deflate the opposition’s will to fight. Too many close games means too many chances to fall behind Ohio, a team they need to learn how to beat.
DENVER GOLD (5-2)
Denver has been quietly winning games and keeping on pace with the best in the conference. They need to just stick to the plan. That means winning their remaining divisional games, beating up on the weaker teams in the West, and building a record that could provide them with home field advantage. If they get that, then they get to stay at altitude all the way until Summer Bowl 2005, if they can keep winning.
OAKLAND INVADERS (4-3)
Normally a 4-3 record is about middle of the pack, but the West this year has been the weaker conference, and that 4-3 has Oakland atop their division. Their BCS is that Houston and Denver knock each other down a couple of pegs, and that LA and Seattle have not truly found themselves. Oakland has a shot at a bye week and a division crown, both of which would be well beyond what Invader fans expected for this year.
JACKSONVILLE BULLS (4-3)
The Bulls are in a 3-way tie atop the very tight Southeastern Division. They have their 2-1 Division record to thank for that. Their BCS involves winning their remaining divisional games and finding a consistent offense to go with their pretty solid defense. The other key to their year is to make a clear choice between Jake Delhomme and Josh McCown, because indecision on that question can only hurt the team moving forward.
PHILADELPHIA STARS (4-3)
The Stars have gotten what they wanted from their offseason spending spree. They are in the hunt and both Ahman Green and Kurt Warner are looking like very good additions. What they are hoping to see is that the back-to-back seasons of NFL then USFL do not lead to Warner wearing down. If he can stay fully focused, and if Green can keep dominating defenses, then the Stars have a real shot at a division that seems to be in flux.
TAMPA BAY BANDITS (4-3)
The Best Case Scenario for Tampa Bay is that they have not really hit their offensive stride yet. They need McGahee to get healthy, and for Culpepper to rediscover the deep ball passing game that was so successful last year. If they can boost their scoring even just a few points per game, they will be in a good position to overtake Jacksonville and claim the division.
BOSTON CANNONS (4-3)
Boston has an issue in that they are currently 0-3 in their division. That is not good come tiebreaker time. So, their BCS involves winning their final three divisional games and get some help in the form of the other three teams knocking each other around. Boston’s offense is among the league elite, but the defense has given up too many leads, something a front-runner team like the Cannons cannot afford. They can still win the division, but the key will be winning all the games they are supposed to win, and perhaps 1 or 2 they are not supposed to win.
MICHIGAN PANTHERS (4-3)
Michigan was not supposed to have a winning record by Week 7, so they are already living their Best Case Scenario. For it to continue, they need to stay competitive in divisional games, particularly against Pittsburgh, who they currently outpace. They need to find just enough run game to keep defenses from fully keying in on Drew Brees, and they need to see their 3 rookie LB’s mature quickly.
MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS (3-3-1)
The Showboats being in first place at midseason is already more than most could hope for. Heath Shuler looking like a reasonable impersonation of his former self, and a run game that is showing signs of life with rookie Cadillac Williams are all good signs for Showboat fans. The BCS in Memphis is that none of this is an illusion, and that the club continues to improve over the final weeks, with the potential to win the Southern Division, and possibly even get a bye week.
ORLANDO RENEGADES (3-3-1)
Orlando looks and feels like a club that is overachieving to reach .500. They certainly were not expected to be anything other than an also-ran behind Boston and Tampa Bay. Their BCS may simply be to remain at or around the .500 mark, which may not get them a playoff spot, but would certainly set them up as a team headed in the right direction.
PITTSBURGH MAULRS (3-3-1)
The Maulers hoped for more this season, but it may be tough to realize the somewhat unrealistic expectations that many had for the club. The offense lacks explosiveness, and, as we already commented, Terrell Davis is looking like a back who has fallen off the production cliff. The defense has talent, but the BCS for the Maulers may be to see development of younger players and to possibly make some hay in the offseason, particularly as they try to add offensive difference makers.
SEATTLE DRAGONS (3-4)
Their BCS is that Cody Prichett can get them to 4-4 with a win next week, and then Byron Leftwich returns, not only to play, but to play as he did last year. With the final 6 weeks as its own mini-season, and with the Pacific Division largely up for grabs, a 4-4 Dragon squad could quite possibly become a 9-5 division winner.
LOS ANGELES EXPRESS (3-4)
The initial hope has to be that Quincy Carter can do over the next month what he did this week in relief. The season will be made or will fall apart based on his run as QB of the Express. In a Best Case Scenario, Carter can win 3 of 4, and McCown can return on schedule. The Express hope that Oakland has a second half swoon (as they have in past years) and that Seattle’s fire sale this offseason truly has made them more like the 0-4 team that started the year, and not the club that has rattled off 3 straight wins.
NEW JERSEY GENERALS (3-4)
Despite having the worst record in the Eastern Conference, the Generals are only 3-4, one win from .500. The hope is that New Jersey can recapture the momentum and swagger that got them to the title last year. They may also hope that divisional games in the second half of the year help to knock down a few of the clubs ahead of them, tightening the field and giving the Generals a chance to climb back into what could be a complex playoff berth competition.
NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS (2-4-1)
The Breakers have some work to do. That seems obvious now. Their BCS is that this season helps Eli Manning develop so that in 2006 he is ready to lead a more dynamic, more dangerous offense. New Orleans still has rebuilding to do on defense as well, so their goal this year should be to clearly identify those players they want to retain, and those they are able to let go in the Expansion Draft.
ARIZONA WRANGLERS (2-5)
Three games behind both Denver and Houston, any chance to repeat as division champions seems lost, but even at 2-5, if Arizona can turn it around, they may still be able to make the playoffs. Short of that, their goal has to be to reestablish the defense that was so good last year. If they can get that sorted out, and if they can land a true lead back through the draft or free agency, then the Wranglers could be right back on top in 2006.
LAS VEGAS THUNDER (1-6)
The Thunder have to be looking at personnel at this point. Find the best 12 players to protect in the Expansion Draft, hope you can recall more as the draft proceeds, and then commit to the offseason with far more aggressive moves than we saw in 2004. Quarterback is just not settled in Las Vegas, so don’t be surprised if CFL export Henry Burris does not get some starts just to see if it is he, over Aaron Brooks, who should be retained.
TEXAS OUTLAWS (1-6)
Right now, I don’t think Texas would retain any of their QB’s in the Expansion Draft, and that is not a good place to be. BCS in Texas may be that they can use the threat of the Expansion Draft to work a deal with a club that has 2 solid contenders at QB, and bring one to town before the season ends. What if Texas could land a Josh McNown, Joey Harrington, or even Cody Prichett before the Expansion Draft, settle the QB position, and then not have to compete to try to snag a promising rookie? Or is that selling the value of some USFL backups a bit too high?
BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS (0-7)
Two things need to come out of this lost season in Birmingham, a clear sense of whether or not Jason Campbell can grow into a Top 10 starter, and a strong draft strategy to either build the club around Campbell, or to find a new direction and commit to it. It seems that Brett Favre, for all his faults, was hiding a lot of issues in Birmingham. Jason Campbell is not to blame for the defense, the lack of run game, or the tendency to make bad mistakes at key points in the game. Birmingham is a team that has hit bottom, and now has to build its way back. The BCS for them is that they are ready to do so and have a plan for how it will be done.
We begin the 2nd half of the season with interconference play across the entire league as all 24-clubs play one of their 4 inter-conference games. Among those that could be important matchups for both clubs, we would highlight the Gamblers headed up to Ohio in a classic battle of D vs. O. Another interesting matchup has Denver visiting Michigan, while 3-4 LA has a tough matchup at 4-3 Jacksonville. Two of the league’s surprise success stories will meet when the Oakland Invaders head across the country to Orlando to face the 3-3-1 Renegades. Seattle also has a long flight as they travel to Tampa Bay to face the Bandits, hoping to win their 4th straight to even their record.
In Chicago the Machine will host the Wranglers, still concerned about their secondary which now starts two rookies. Nashville will be in Philadelphia to face the stars, while in-state rival Memphis is in New Jersey, where the Generals are hoping to regain their swagger with some home cooking. Birmingham takes their 0-7 record into Baltimore, where the Blitz are flying high at 5-2. New Orleans has a tough matchup in Washington to face the 5-2 Federals, while Pittsburgh hopes that a home game against the 1-6 Outlaws helps them get back into the mix in a very tough Central Division. We finish up the week’s interconference games with Las Vegas visiting the Boston Cannons, who sit in a 3-way tie for first in the Southeast with the Bulls and Bandits.
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