Wild Card weekend and we are still reeling from the crazy finish to the year. No one could have expected to go into the playoffs with Boston, Ohio, and New Jersey all MIA. Many predicted LA to win the west, or for Pittsburgh to make a run, but here we are, with quite a few surprise teams in the mix. But how did they do this week? Well, two of four games went to the lower seed, so not that bad all told. Any time a road team can win in the playoffs is a big deal, so for two of the games to go to the visitors is exciting to see. Let’s start our recap with Saturday’s two games, both taking place in humid southern climes.
PHILADELPHIA STARS 26 JACKSONVILLE BULLS 23
A muggy June afternoon in Jacksonville saw the Philadelphia Stars facing off against the home town Bulls. Both clubs came into the game at 9-5, and both finished in 2nd place in their divisions. It looked like a pretty even matchup on paper, and it played like a matchup between two equal opponents., coming down to the final seconds to decide it.
Jacksonville got solid numbers from their usual performers on offense, with Antowain Smith rushing for 81 yards on 15 carries, Javon Walker and Anquon Boldin teaming up for 123 yards in the air, and Jake Delhomme throwing for 202 yards, with 1 pick and 1 TD. For Philadelphia, the stars also shone, with Ahman Green rushing for 118 and a 6.2 YPC average, Steve Smith hauling in 7 passes for 101 yards and a score, and QB Kurt Warner showing the calm leadership the Stars wanted from him when they signed him away from the NY Giants. He completed 32 of 42 passes for 317 yards, 2 picks but also 2 scores. More importantly, he made good on a two-minute drill that would give the Stars the win.
The game was even throughout, with TDs from Boldin, Steve Smith, Antowain Smith, and Marcus Pollard, helping create a 17-17 tie at the half. It was 17-10 Jacksonville with 2:58 to go in the first half, but Kurt Warner displayed his control of the offense and calm demeanor in the 2-minute drill, helping the Stars get the equalizer with just over a minute to play in the half. That cool demeaner would come back again at the end of the game.
In the second half, both defenses tightened up their zones and the running lanes. Scoring was limited to only 2 Bulls’ field goals in the 3rd, creating a 23-17 lead as the game entered the final period. Philly would score on a Cedric Cobb dive over the pile form the 2 yard line, but when Mike Nugent doinked the kick off the left upright, it meant that the game was tied at 23, instead of the Stars taking the lead with 13:10 to play.
Jacksonville would not be able to score again, as the Stars’ defense, led by LB’s Mike Crawford and Zach Thomas, stuffed the run and got in on some blitzes to disrupt Delhomme. With 2:07 left to play it looked very much like this game could go to overtime, but Philadelphia had one last possession to work with. Kurt Warner connected on consecutive passes with Marcus Pollard, Amani Toomer, and Steve Smith, and then, milking the clock a bit, they had Ahman Green run the ball into the line on 1st and 10 from the Bulls’ 31. He would gain 8 yards, putting the ball at the Jacksonville 23, and setting up Mike Nugent for a 40-yarder on third down as time ticked away. Nugent was good, and with 27 seconds to play, the Stars went up for good. Jacksonville would try a lateral on the kickoff, but ended up with the ball at their own 22, and could not get into range to tie. The Stars come away with the win and advance to face the #1 seed, Chicago, next week.
SEATTLE DRAGONS 24 NASHVILLE KNIGHTS 17
A little cooler, but still a bit sticky in Nashville as the visiting Dragons faced off against the Knights in what locals were calling the “St. George Classic” of Knights slaying Dragons. Problem is, for every St. George, there are a lot of crispy fried knights who don’t slay the dragon. In this one, neither tema could slay the run games of their opponent, as both clubs proved that they had what it took to grind out yards and keep drives alive. Rookie of the Year (not official, but we all know it), Frank Gore rushed for 94 yards on 20 carries, a very respectable 4.7 yards per carry. But, on the other side, Corey Dillon did even better, averaging 6.4 yards per carry as he dashed for 102 on 16 carries. And while Todd Collins outgained Byron Leftwich in this one, tossing for 311, including 143 to Bert Emmanuel, he also tossed 2 costly picks, one in the red zone that ended a very promising first half drive.
This was another tight game, with Nashville up 14-13 at the half thanks to a 67-yard TD to Bert Emmanuel and an Ahmad Merrit 2-yard run. Seattle had gotten on the board as Byron Leftwich connected with TE Jeramy Stevens in the 1st quarter. Just like the Philly-Jacksonville game, defenses got tougher in the 2nd half, as both clubs struggled to make adjustments. Each team got 3 points in the quarter, bringing the score to 16-27. Once again it looked like a game that could go to overtime, but a poor throw by Collins fell not into the hands of Derrick Mason, but those of CB Marcus Truffant of Seattle. Trufant took the ball down to the Nashville 33 with 2:47 left to play and set up the Dragons with a perfect opportunity to kill clock and win the game.
The Dragons did both. Relying on runs by Corey Dillon and short passes to Stevens and HB Darren Sproles to get down to the 4 yard line. From there Byron Leftwich connected with WR O.J. McDuffie for the go-ahead score, and when Sproles caught a sprint out pass from Leftwich for the 2-point PAT, the Dragons were up 7 with 1:23 left on the clock.
Nashville would have a chance to come back, and for a while it looked like they might. Collins found Emmanuel for 33 yards on a great 1st down call, and then connected with Reggie Kelly to get the ball into scoring range. Problem was, the Knights needed 6, and on 3 consecutive plays they failed to advance the ball. 4th and 10 from the 23 and Collins looked for his favorite target, Emmanuel, but Seattle was ready for it. FS Chris Hayes defended the pass perfectly and when it hit the turf, the ball went back to the underdog Dragons, 10 point underdogs at the start of the day, but victors in Nashville. The Dragons silence the critics who could not believe that a 6-8 team was worthy of a playoff spot, and now they head off to an even tougher task, facing their division rivals, Oakland, in the next round.
MICHIGAN PANTHERS 17 WASHINGTON FEDERALS 27
With two upsets in Saturday’s games, the home teams in both DC and Denver had to be worried, but the Federals had what it took to contain Drew Brees and the Michigan passing attack, contain but not stop. Brees would finish the game with 328 yards passing, but also suffered 6 sacks along the way. Kordell Stewart had a much more modest 227 through the air, but also proved he still had some wheels, rushing 6 times for 33 yards, including a 6 yard TD run on a bootleg.
That Stewart TD run was part of a 17-point spurt that started in the 2nd quarter and continued into the 3rd. It took a 14-7 Michigan lead and converted it into a 24-14 Federals advantage. Deion Branch would catch a TD from Stewart in that spurt as well, and with about 23 minutes of action left in the game, the Federals would trust in Deuce McCallister to help shorten the game. Deuce would come through, gaining 73 of his 132 yards after Washington went up by 10. That limited Michigan possessions, and the Washington defense did the rest, holding the Panthers to only 3 second half points. When Washington brought the lead back up to 10 with a Doug Pelfrey 4th quarter field goal, the fans started to celebrate the win. It was a bit premature, but a late sack of Brees on 3rd and 13 sealed the deal for the homestanding Federals. Washington will now go on to face Tampa Bay next week in what should be a very interesting clash of styles.
MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS 17 DENVER GOLD 44
This was truly the only game that did not live up to expectations. With Heath Shuler unable to play, Bill Musgrave started his first ever playoff game. Four picks later, he probably wishes he had not had the chance. The scoring actually began with Memphis’s defense, as a ball tipped at the line was snagged by Showboat Tebucky Jones and returned for 6. That was likely the happiest point of the day for Memphis fans as what followed was a 31-7 run by the Gold, including TDs from Rod Smart, Cedric Benson, Lonnie Johnson, and a pick-6 for the Gold from Jamar Fisher.
It was 31-14 at the half, and did not get better for Memphis from there, as Denver got a 2nd Rod Smart TD and then just went into clock-killing mode. Memphis was simply unable to overcome the deficit as Denver’s D-line simply played the pass rush game the entire second half, flustering Musgrave and forcing 2 more 2nd half picks. The final was 44-17 and Denver, looking very much like a contender, now moves on to face a very tough Houston squad.
Cinderella Seattle the Story of the Week
We went into the weekend with several Cinderella stories, including Memphis, Philly, Michigan, and Jacksonville, but none was bigger than Seattle, who clinched a playoff spot on the last week of the year, despite only a 6-8 record in the regular season. Facing the Southern Division Champs in Nashville was supposed to expose the reality that Seattle was not a quality club, but what it showed was that these Dragons can be dangerous. We all remember that Seattle began the year 0-4, despite being picked by many to win the division. They would not capture the division title, which went to 8-6 Oakland, but they did finish the regular season with 3 consecutive wins, and their victory in Nashville may indicate that this Cinderella is ready to shake up the ball.
This is very much the roster that went 9-5 and won the Pacific last year, advaincing to the Conference Finals before falling to the Wranglers. They have some big time players on offense with the likes of Corey Dillon, David Boston, and Byron Leftwich. The defense has been an issue this year, finishing 13th in points allowed and 16th in yardage, but there is talent there, including CB Marcus Truffant, who came up big against the Knights. Takeo Spikes and Godfrey Miles are solid at LB, while John Abraham and Travis LaBoy can bring pressure on the line.
So, the question is, are the Dragons up to the task of upending division champion Oakland? The Invaders knocked off Seattle twice this season, 31-28 in Week 2 and then again 36-24 in Week 10. Is it midnight and the magic will wear off for Seattle, or can they keep this party going one more week?
Atlanta Hires Their Architect
The Atlanta Fire have made their hire at Head Coach and they are being aggressive with it. Not only did Atlanta not opt for a coach with a prior resume as the main man, their choice was only recently promoted to OC. This Week the Fire introduced Jay Gruden, the long-time QB coach of the Glory who helped set up Kerry Collins for success, and who was only recently promoted to Offensive Coordinator. It seems clear that Atlanta is looking for an offensive guru, and particularly one who can mentor a young QB. This may be a sign that the Fire are looking at the rookie class and hoping to sign a QB to build around, rather than bringing in a veteran backup to start for the franchise in their first year.
Gruden’s pedigree is pretty solid, having played briefly in the NFL before becoming a QB coach, first for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and then the Ohio Glory. He is, of course, brother to NFL Head Coach Jon Gruden, who brought him in with Tampa Bay. Gruden is highly regarded as a QB guru after helping to turn Kerry Collins into a 3-time (possibly 4 this year) MVP in Ohio. He has no prior experience as a head coach, and now, working with GM Jack Bushovsky, the young coach will have to put together a roster that suits the type of offense he wants to run, as well as locate a defensive coordinator who can largely run that side of the ball for the Fire. We expect position coaching hires soon, and then the focus on player acquisition, and that most intriguing position, quarterback, now takes the spotlight.
Pittsburgh speaks with Chicago DC Rivera
The Maulers have begun their coaching search, obtaining permission to speak with Chicago DC Ron Rivera during the Machine’s bye week. It is well-known that the Maulers are hoping to build a defensive-minded, run-first club under new leadership. Modeling their club after division rival Chicago seems a logical way to go and Rivera is certainly a good hire if they can get him away from the #1 seeded Machine. The Maulers are unable to do more than have a preliminary interview with Rivera until a time when Chicago is no longer in playoff contention, so they will almost certainly be speaking with other candidates over the next few weeks, at least until Chicago has completed their season. But, it seems clear, that if it is possible, the Maulers would like to target the Chicago DC as their preferred candidate.
LA meets with Several Coaching Candidates
The position in Los Angeles is somewhat more wide open than in Pittsburgh. Leadership in LA has not given the press much to go on as far as the direction they hope to go with a new hire. That said, the three candidates who have already been linked to the Express are a very diverse bunch as well. In addition to speaking with Denver Bronco offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, who seems unlikely to leave the Broncos at this time, the Express have also sent out feelers to Boston OC Hue Jackson and to recently sacked former Pittsburgh Mauler head coach Jack Bicknell. We suspected Bicknell would get some interest, after all, he is a highly respected coach, and did get Pittsburgh into the playoffs the past 2 seasons before an unanticipated collapse cost him his job in the Steel City this year. We could certainly see LA jumping on Bicknell as a successful coach with USFL experience.
Hue Jackson is an intriguing candidate as well. Having helped to craft the Boston offense which got them out of the basement in the Southeast and made them a serious contender with Tampa Bay these past two seasons. Jackson, in Boston, worked with veteran stars like Drew Bledsoe and Tiki Barber, something that may be repeatable with Cade McNown and DeShaun Foster. His offenses, based on the Ohio Glory model, combined inside-out run schemes with mid-range and deep balls to open up the defense. That could be a formula that could work for LA, who have excellent wideouts in Tory Holt and Keyshawn Johnson.
Finally, there is Kubiak, who seems something of a longshot, but certainly has the bona fides to merit a shot as a Head Coach. Kubiak, who has served as QB coach in San Francisco and Denver after a brief stint at Texas A&M, was a former QB in the NFL, also with the Broncos. Pursued at one point by the Denver Gold, who hoped to persuade John Elway’s backup to come to the spring to start in Denver, Kubiak never jumped at the chance, and remained in the NFL. A similar situation could be at play here, where it seems very likely that Kubiak will get a shot to be a head coach with Denver in the near future. While it seems unlikely that LA would be able to pull him away from an organization which has done a lot for him, stranger things have happened, and if the timeline for the Broncos is such that a few years as a head man in the USFL would actually improve Kubiak’s standing, that could be a tempting option.
Retirement Season Begins with Expected Announcements
As we see each year, the first week of the playoffs is also the first week of USFL players announcing their intention to step away from the game and retire. In many cases these are not surprises, and this year, with their season already in shambles, one future HOF player announced several weeks ago that he would be stepping away.
It became official this week for Lawrence Dawsey, the long-time Birmingham Stallion wideout who announced his intention to retire several weeks ago. Dawsey held a press conference at Legion Field to thank the fans and the ownership in Birmingham for a long and distinguished career.
Two other anticipated retirements also became fact this week as LA loses two defensive starters in former Atlanta Fire LB Mo Lewis and their top cornerback, Aeneas Williams. Both Williams and Lewis turned 35 this season and defensive football can be rough on 35-year old knees, hips, and ankles. Lewis, having played 4 season in Jacksonville, 7 in Atlanta, and then 4 more in LA, leaves the game with 1,238 tackles, 36 sacks and 12 picks. Williams came into the league up the highway in Oakland, where he started 11 games as a rookie in 1991. In 2001, after 10 season in the Bay Area, he came to the arch-rival Express in a move that certainly still stings Oakland fans. He was a 5 year starter in LA and retires with 45 picks over his long career.
Pittsburgh also loses two star defenders with announcements this week that LB DeMetrius DuBose and DT Russell Maryland will both not return for the 2006 season, a season expected to be a rebuilding project for a new head coach in the Steel City. DuBose came to Pittsburgh as a rookie in 1993, and has played his entire career with the Maulers, starting 191 of 199 games over the past 13 seasons. He retires as one of the all-time Mauler greats, with 1,391 tackles, 38 sacks, and 15 picks in his career. Russell Maryland came to the Maulers already an established starter in the league, having centered the D-Line for Arizona from 1996-2000. He would come to Pittsburgh via free agency and would start every game for the Maulers from 2001-2005. He ends his 10-year career with 428 tackles, 54 for a loss, and 19 sacks. Known as a space-filler with good upfield push, Maryland was a star at the U. of Miami before coming to the USFL.
Finally, one somewhat unexpected announcement this week as Troy Brown, wide receiver for the Ohio Glory, declared his intention to hang up the cleats at the age of 34. Brown came over from the NFL in1997 to play for the Philadelphia Stars, where he would spend 7 seasons. He joined Ohio in 2004 as the anticipated replacement for Chad Ochocinco. In 2 seasons in Ohio Brown had two of his top 3 most productive seasons, including 1,057 yards this past year. He set a personal best with 12 TDs in his first year in Ohio and was expected to once again line up opposite Joey Galloway for the Glory in 2006. But, as is the case with receivers, once they start to feel that they are slowing down, the decision becomes somewhat easier for them to step away. Brown leaves something of a hole in the Glory receiving room, as Galloway will clearly remain the #1 target for Kerry Collins, the #2 may be inherited by 3 year veteran Reche Caldwell, or Ohio could prioritize the position this offseason.
Wild Card Squads See Free Agency Hit
With their departure from the postseason this week, Michigan, Memphis, Nashville, and Jacksonville now also see several players each join the ranks of free agency. Among those testing the waters this year, we find Panthers Eddie Freeman (DE), Eric Brown (FS0, Enoch Demar (G), Jonathan Wells (HB) and Jeff Smoker (QB). For Memphis the new free agents are FB Casay Kramer, LB Rahim Abdullah, DT Barron Tanner, WR Oronde Gadsden, and kicker David Kimball.
Nashville could be saying goodbye to G Todd Rucci and C Matt Birk, two of 5 starting offensive linemen. WR Alex Van Dyke and HB Verron Hayes are also now on the market. And in Jacksonville, the big potential loss is that of SS Bobby Myers. TE Roland Williams, DE Mike Mamula, and lonstanding USFL backup QB Danny Wuerfel is also now a free agent.
More Alterations to League Schedule Apparent as Opponent List revealed.
This week the USFL revealed the 2006 opponents for each team, and in doing so informed us somewhat unintentionally that the league’s 2006 schedule will be even more altered from the original plan than anticipated. It appears, based on the opponents listed, that the teams in 5-team divisions will not be limited to only 6 divisional games, as originally planned, aligning them with the clubs in 4-team divisions, but that they will, in fact, play each divisional opponent twice. This means that clubs in the Northeast Division (BAL, BOS, NJ, PHI, WSH) and the Central Division (CHI, MGN, OHIO, PIT, STL) will each play 8 divisional games, while all other clubs play 6, essentially home and away series against each divisional foe.
In addition to this, the list of opponents also tells us that each team in these 5-team divisions will split their remaining 6 games evenly between inter-divisional play and inter-conference play, with each club facing off against 3 clubs in other divisions from their conference and 3 from the opposite conference. This is very different from the schedule for the 4-club divisions, each of whom will see a greater focus on intra-conference divisional matchups. Each team in the Southeast, South, Southwest, and Pacific divisions will play 6 divisional games, 6 games against foes from the other divisions in their conference, and only 2 inter-conference games.
League officials responded to questions about the change in planned opponents by highlighting the complexity of scheduling divisional and intra-conference games when there is an odd number of teams in each conference. With 13 teams per conference in place until the 2008 expansion, the league will play an out-of-balance schedule that emphasizes the divisional rivalries for all clubs, while providing very different out-of-division experiences for each club, depending on the size of their divisional schedule.
Among highlights of the opponents list, we obviously have all the divisional games, but in addition to that we can look forward to these games (Home v. Away and dates have not yet been set:
The Central Division will now be part of the Western Conference, and the South will move to the Eastern Conference, thus allowing St. Louis to play in the same division as Chicago and Michigan, and allowing for more matchups between teams in the Gulf Coast region and Florida.
Chicago will face Houston in a battle of the top 2 playoff seeds in what is now an inter-divisional game. Chicago also plays Denver and LA, while going inter-conference to face Memphis, New Orleans and Washington.
Denver has only 2 inter-conference games, against Philadelphia and Boston.
Houston also only has 2 inter-conference games, though both games, against Nashville and New Jersey, look like fun matchups.
Oakland may just avoid any East Coast flights, as the only team on the Eastern seaboard in their opponent list is Jacksonville. Certainly the Invaders hope that game is in Oakland.
Ohio will join the Western Conference to face inter-divisional foes like Texas, Las Vegas, and Arizona, while playing 3 Eastern teams: Jacksonville, Washington, and the New Orleans Breakers.
Expansion St. Louis gets to build a rivalry with Chicago, a divisional foe, but also has games against Eastern Division foes New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Orlando.
Atlanta will play in the Southeastern Division, with Boston heading up to the very brutal NE Division. Along with SE Division games against the three Florida clubs, Atlanta will play only 2 Western clubs, Seattle and Texas.
Atlanta and St. Louis will not play each other in their first seasons, a disappointment to be sure.
Boston, relocated to the 5-team NE Division, enters a hornet’s nest where every club finished over .500 this year. They will have home and away series against New Jersey, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington. They are scheduled to play only 1 old SE Division foe, Jacksonville, while also playing the new Atlanta club. As for heading West, Boston has 3 western foes: Denver, Michigan, and Oakland.
The full schedule is expected to be released prior to the Expansion Draft in November. We likely will see it as soon as late September, as has been the custom these past few years.
One week into the 2005 Playoffs and now we are ready for the top seeds to get involved. Four division winners join the fray. Will all four advance, or will a Wild Card jump up and surprise one of the top seeds? As we look at the matchups, there is potential in nearly every game for an upset, but there is also clearly potential for the homestanding favorites to survive and advance to the Conference title game.
Saturday, July 2 @ 3pm ET
Soldier Field
The Stars and the Machine, two teams that don’t know each other very well, but two teams that have some well-known names on the roster. Chicago comes into the game rested and prepared after finishing the regular season on a 5-game win streak, upending Ohio and Tampa Bay along the way to claim the top seed in the East. Philadelphia had to wait until the final week to lock in a playoff spot, but lost two of their final 3 games before a final week victory at home against New Jersey vaulted them into the postseason. Last week the Stars upset Jacksonville, and while only a 2-point underdog there, they still showed they can win on the road.
Philadelphia will try to use Kurt Warner and the passing game to try to soften up Chicago’s vaunted run defense. If they can force Chicago to respect the pass by connecting with Steve Smith, Amani Toomer, and TE Marcus Pollard, there could then be room for Ahman Green to do what he does best, take over games.
Chicago lives by their defense, led by Brian Urlacher and 2006 sack champion Anthony Weaver. They will commit to stopping the run, even if that means giving up some yardage in the passing game. Their red zone defense is all but unsolvable, and they count on that to force teams to kick instead of scoring 6. On offense, Chicago will be conservative, feeding the ball to Michael turner and Brian Westbrook. Expect a lot of short passes as well, with Curtis Conway, Donald Driver, and TE Jim Kliensasser keeping the routes short to avoid turnovers or negative plays.
Chicago is a 5 point favorite in this one. We think the Machine will get the W, but we are not sure that spread will hold. We would bet on Philly to keep this one within a field goal, but for Chicago to ultimately prevail.
Saturday, July 2 @ 8pm ET
Oakland Coliseum
A weird quirk in USFL playoff policy allows for the league to disrupt the usual highest-seed/lowest seed pairing only in cases where aligning the playoff round by division creates two divisional clashes, and while we do not have that in the East, we do in the West. What does that mean? It means that instead of heading to Houston to face the top-seeded Gamblers, the Seattle Dragons travel down the coast to face divisional rival Oakland. Honestly, this may not be doing them much of a favor except on mileage.
Oakland defeated the Dragons twice already this year, a modest 3-point win in Seattle, and a pretty one-sided Week 10 win in Oakland. In that game Ricky Williams and Justin Fargas combined for 146 yards, and Trent Green threw for 3 scores. Seattle will need to figure out two things to stand a chance in this one. First, how to spring Corey Dillon against Oakland’s front 7, in both games earlier this year he was held under 50 yards rushing. The second is how to make Oakland one-dimensional. This may require sending Godfrey Miles or Takeo Spikes on run blitzes to contain Williams, the league leader with a 5.0 YPC average. If they can limit the Oakland offense to Trent Green, they can then pressure the immobile QB.
If that sounds like a lot, the two games this year show that it is. For Oakland, very much the flipside is true, on offense, they want to mix the run and the pass to keep Seattle’s defense guessing, and they want to use that defense, particularly LB’s Kailee Wong, Roosevelt Colvin, and Dan Morgan to rein in Corey Dillon and force Byron Leftwich to beat them.
Seattle played very well last week in Nashville, but we are still not convinced this is a team that can make it further. We like Oakland to win this one and to cover the 5.5 point spread that Las Vegas has for them. It may be a low-scoring affair, though the weather in Oakland should be absolutely beautiful for this evening game.
Sunday, July 3 @ 12pm ET
Raymond James Stadium
So, here’s the thing. When I say it is Washington v. Tampa Bay, the kneejerk reaction is to assume it is Washington’s D against Tampa Bay’s offense. But, not so fast. This year, Tampa Bay scored only 7 more points all year than the Federals, 338 to 331, but the Bandits gave up only 263 points, the 6th lowest total in the league, while Washington allowed 322, only good enough for 14th best. So, let’s flip the script and talk about that Tampa Bay defense and the Washington offense.
The Bandits rely on two things to find defensive success, pass rush pressure and turnovers. They are 2nd in the East with a +19 turnover margin, thanks in large part to 12 interceptions from their starting 4 defensive backs (Samari Rolle leads all defenders with 4 picks) and 6 forced fumbles from CB Chidi Iwoma, who seems to always be swatting at the ball when he tackles a player. The pass rush comes from the two ends, with Santana Dotson leading the team with 13 sacks, while John Copeland is only 2 behind with ll.
Washington will have to move Kordell Stewart in the pocket, something he is quite comfortable with, and they will have to be patient. Tampa Bay will try to take away Deion Branch, so Stewart is going to have to find connections with Cedric Tillman and Cam Cleeland. Let’s also not forget that Deuce McCallister is quite capable out of the backfield, with 42 receptions this year. If they can get Deuce running, that will force Tampa Bay to play more zone defense, and that is good for the Federals.
Looking at this game, a 3-seed v. a 2-seed, this may be the closest game of the week. Las Vegas gives Tampa Bay only a 2 point edge at home. We think that if there is going to be an upset, it could be this game, so we are going to pick the Federals in what should be a good, tight, hard-hitting game.
Sunday, July 3 @ 5pm ET
NRG Stadium
We have to say that while it is a bit odd, we love seeing the league focus on divisional rivalries even in the playoffs. Denver and Houston have been building quite a good rivalry over the past few years, and this year was perhaps the best yet, with Houston clipping Denver in the Astro Dome in Week 7, and then Denver, admittedly against a Houston squad that had already clinched home field, evening the score in Week 14.
Both teams do some things alike. Both depend on their defenses to keep other teams out of scoring range. No bend-but-don’t-break here. There is no bending and no breaking allowed. Denver comes in with the #2 scoring defense, allowing only 18.1 PPG, while Houston is 4th, but only by 0.5 PPG at 18.6. Houston has the #1 passing defense, which also means they end up as the overall #1 in yardage. So, if Denver is going to win, they have to be able to run the ball. Houston does not particularly run the ball well, 21st in the league at only 72.6 YPG. Against Denver’s 2nd rated pass defense, they may have to at least try.
We do not see this game reaching 40 total points. It feels like the first team to hit 20 may just win. It should be a close one, unless one of two things happens. If Denver can get their 1-2 punch of Benson and Smart up to around 150 total yards, they could pull away, but if Matt Hasselbeck can connect with Freeman, Williams, and Robinson for 300 or more yards, it could be Houston moving the game out of the 1-score range.
Our pick is going to be Houston, but only by 1-3 points in what we see as a close matchup between two teams that pretty much know what the other is capable of and where to hurt them.