We’ve looked at the Draft, surveyed the late free agent and NFL signings, and talked about the top stories to follow, so it is time to start surveying the field and our picks for the teams that are on their way up. We start with our predictions, always to be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism, for how we see the six divisions of the USFL sorting themselves out. We will then provide you with our club by club analysis before making our picks for Summer Bowl 2006 in Philadelphia.
BOSTON 10-4* Boston makes an instant impression, and instant rivalries.
PHILADELPHIA 9-5* The Stars are poised to challenge for a title.
BALTIMORE 7-7* The Blitz continue to improve, but this is a tough division.
NEW JERSEY 7-7 The Generals should win 10 games, but somehow they won’t.
WASHINGTON 6-9 From first to worst, but this is the NE, so it is totally possible.
We start with the Northeast, perhaps the most balanced, and most competitive, division in the league. All 5 teams in this division, with the addition of Boston from the Southeast, were above .500 last season, with Washington making the move from 4th to 1st on Week 14. This year we think the added burden of playing an 8-game divisional schedule will lead to more losses and a greater disparity. And, yes, we are picking the 2005 champion to finish last. But, in all honesty, you could flip the list of teams upside down and make an equally plausible case that it is just as valid a prediction. The addition of Boston makes this division even tougher, as you are now dealing with 5 teams, all with high quality, settled QB positions, and all with something they can hang their hats on. So, this is the one division where anything could happen.
TAMPA BAY 13-3* Without Boston here, it comes down to the Bandits & Bulls
JACKSONVILLE 10-4* The Bulls sweep Orlando & Atlanta to get to 10 wins.
ORLANDO 6-8 Too many questions to pick them for .500 or better.
ATLANTA 3-10 A better team than the 1995 version, but that is not enough.
Trading Boston for an expansion Atlanta Fire club must feel like a late Christmas present for the other three teams in the division. While we think this Atlanta squad is better than the one that took the field in 1995, that is not saying much. They will struggle this year, as we think Orlando could as well. That leaves the division as a race between the Bandits and Bulls. Tampa Bay is the safer choice as they simply have more answers on both sides of the ball. We are still not sold on the Bulls’ offense, whereas Tampa has one of the league’s better combinations of deep ball and consistent run game. We take the Bandits to win the Division and capture the overall #1 seed in the East.
NASHVILLE 10-5* Frank Gore gets even better, and so do the Knights.
MEMPHIS 7-7 We have the Showboats getting to .500 but not the playoffs.
NEW ORLEANS 5-11 This season will be an odyssey for the Breakers.
BIRMINGHAM 4-10 A "must improve" season for Capbell and Franchione.
The move from the Western Conference to the East does not really provide much benefit to these four clubs. With 6 inter-divisional games, many teams face tough competition playing the clubs of the Northeast and Southeast compared to the Southwest and Pacific Divisions. We think that will suppress wins for many of the Southern clubs, and we should recall that the South was a pretty mediocre group last year, barely getting any teams over .500. We see a bit more quality out of Nashville and Memphis this year, but it will be a huge struggle for New Orleans dealing with all the movement and uncertainty this season will have for them, and Birmingham still has a long way to go to become a contender again.
OHIO 11-3* We pick the Glory O to edge the Machine D.
CHICAGO 10-4* You cannot have a weak secondary in this division.
MICHIGAN 8-6* A Wild Card, but a dangerous out. 2006’s Seattle Dragons?
PITTSBURGH 6-8 A better D than in 2005, but not yet good enough.
ST. LOUIS 3-13 In this division, 3 wins seems an achievement.
The Central Division is going to be very top heavy this year. It is feasible that Ohio, Chicago, and Michigan all finish with 10 or more wins, though we have not predicted that here. Pitsburgh should improve under coach Ron Rivera, but still seem unlikely to return to playoff form in this tough division. St. Louis is just hoping to eke out a win or two within the division and then get some luck in their 6 non-division games. We see Chicago having taken a step back, due largely to defections from their secondary, and that is enough for us to put Ohio on top.
HOUSTON 11-3* Another top seed is definitely a possibility for the Gamblers.
ARIZONA 9-5* A healthy Plummer and a rebound to ’04 style.
DENVER 7-7 A QB transition is never easy, but Leinart shows signs.
TEXAS 6-8 A nice step in the right direction for a team that has hit bottom
Last season Houston surprised many by not only taking over the division, but by winning the overall #1 seed. We see them doing it again this year as they clearly have the best defense in the division and an improving offense. Arizona took a dive last year, largely due to the injury that cost Jake Plummer much of the season, but also due to a complete defensive collapse. We see this year as a chance for Coach Fassel to rally the troops and return to the form of 2004, when they took the division crown. Denver is in transition with a rookie QB, and Texas should be much improved, especially on defense, so this is another division where we could be way off base, at least in the 2nd-4th positions.
SEATTLE 10-4* Is Seattle’s playoff run a sign of lasting quality?
OAKLAND 8-6 Oakland is again 8-6, but this time that is not enough.
LOS ANGELES 7-7 Coach Jackson will need time to rebuild this club's culture.
LAS VEGAS 6-8 We could see the Thunder win 8 games, but also 4.
The Pacific is always so hard to predict. It seems like every year a different team rises out of nowhere to claim the title while our preseason favorite collapses. Seattle shocked the world last year going from 6-8 to a league title, but we still think they are the deepest roster and the one most likely to take the title. Oakland improved to 8-6 last year, but their offseason did not seem to build on that success, so we have them stagnating. LA is a crapshoot. With Hue Jackson at the helm, we think it will take some time for this club to gel and find an identity, so we think 7-7 is about right. We are intrigued by what Las Vegas is doing under Coach Glanville, and we recognize that he did have success building a winner as a coach in Tampa Bay, but he is so volatile and unpredictable that it is hard to make a prediction on whether the Thunder will show marked improvement or will fall apart. We like the presence of Steve McNair after years of confusion at QB with the Thunder, but is that enough?
We have looked at each division, and later on we will make our picks for the Summer Bowl, but we continue our look at the upcoming 2006 season with our team-by-team breakdowns. We will try to give you our assessment of the players to watch, and the key factor for each club that will determine success or failure this season.
BOSTON CANNONS 9-5 in 2005
HEAD COACH: John Fox (5th Season)
STADIUM: Alumni Stadium @ Boston College (44,500)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Drew Bledsoe, WR Chad Ochocinco, HB Tiki Barber, LB London Fletcher, DT Casey Hampton.
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: DT John McCargo. The rookie DT from NC State could be a major factor in the success or failure of the Boston defense as the club moves into the very competitive NE Division. McCargo’s role will be to occupy blockers so that Greg Ellis and Jason Babin can get to the likes of Warner, Brady, Roethlisberger and Kordell Stewart. He will also be key to freeing up the LBs to pursue the run. If the rookie can have success in the interior line, the entire Cannon defense could benefit.
OUTLOOK: We like Boston to take the division by storm. They have more offensive firepower than the other NE Clubs, and their defense is underrated. Their Big 3 at QB-HB-WR are as good as they get, but we are concerned that Drew Bledsoe seems to be getting less mobile, and more susceptible to pressure as he moves into the latter stages of his career. Should something happen to the big guy, the team would fall to untested Adrian McPherson, and that would likely be the end of any playoff run. So, the key is to use Tike Barber to keep defenses honest, and to protect Bledsoe from big hits. If Boston can do that, they can take the division.
PHILADELPHIA STARS 9-5 in 2005
COACH: Jim Harbaugh (2nd Season)
STADIUM: Lincoln Financial Field (67,594)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Kurt Warner, HB Ahman Green, G Ruben Brown, DT Seth Payne, DE Regan Upshaw
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: DE Robert Mathis. With offenses having to account for Regan Upshaw on the left side, Mathis is able to see a lot of single blocks on the righ, and last year that translated into his first 10+ sack season. We see more for him this year. Depending on how teams try to deal with a pass rushing duo, Mathis could overtake Upshaw in sacks, but the reality is that in most cases it will be the blocking scheme that determines which powerful and speedy edge rusher gets to the QB first.
OUTLOOK: The signing of Kurt Warner and the acquisition of Ahman Green last year took the Stars from a tough out to a potential Summer Bowl favorite. They have a defense that flies to the ball and can pressure the QB, but now they also have an offense that can beat you all on their own. Warner seems to have returned to the form he showed as a St. Louis Ram, forgetting the rough years with the Giants. Green provides the perfect workhorse attitude that allows Warner to use his pinpoint accuracy in a play action strategy that is tough to combat. We see Philadelphia as an early favorite to win it all, even if they may not win this very tough division.
BALTIMORE BLITZ 9-5 in 2005
COACH: Tom Coughlin (4th season)
STADIUM: M&T Bank Stadium (71,008)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Ben Roethlisberger, HB Ron Dayne, SS Adam Archuleta, LB James Farrior, FS Marquez Pope
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: Local media and fans have become fans of the former basketball player turned TE, Antonio Gates, and we think 2006 is when the nation will take notice. Gates has an uncanny ability to make himself open through body position, like a center blocking off defenders on the court. He is faster than a big man should be, and he uses his body position better than any other player at the position. The only thing really holding him back is a somewhat lackluster WR corps. Most teams play zone against Baltimore because they are not afraid of the outside receivers, and that limits Gates’s ability to outwork man coverage.
OUTLOOK: Baltimore’s defense could be a league leader. They are aggressive, disciplined, and know how to tackle. They still lack the signature passrusher who could make them truly elite, but they will still be a tough squad to score against. The offense still lacks a few weapons, particularly a true #1 receiver. Daernerien McCants and Eddie Kennison just do not strike fear into opponents. We think that lack of explosiveness holds the Blitz back. They rely very heavily on Ron Dayne to keep drives alive, and that is not always easy with the box stacked against him. Get this team a top flight receiver and they could open things up a lot more.
NEW JERSEY GENERALS 8-6 in 2005
COACH: Bill Parcells (6th Season)
STADIUM: Giants Stadium (80,242)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Tom Brady, HB Curtis Enis, WR Terry Glenn, CB Deion Sanders, DE Shaun Ellis
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: The Generals went out and found a suitable #2 receiver by snagging T.J. Houshmanzadeh from the NFL Bengals. Housh is somewhere between a speed receiver and a possession receiver, but we think that with Tom Brady tossing him the ball, he could be a second #1 for this club. The combo of Glenn and Houshmanzadeh could be very much like what we saw in Ohio with Galloway and Ochocinco during their glory years.
OUTLOOK: The 2004 league champions slipped a bit last year, but they added some good pieces in the offseason, including more speed at wideout, and a very good complement to Shaun Ellis in rookie Tamba Hali from Penn State. New Jersey will be in the mix all year long. The sign to look for, what is Curtis Enis averaging. If he can get to 4.2 YPC this team could be tough to stop. The ability to force teams to play the run is what frees up the receivers and keeps pressure off of Brady. Do that and have even a middle-of-the-pack defense and it is 10 wins or more for the Generals.
WASHINGTON FEDERALS 9-5 in 2005
COACH: Kurt Schottenheimer (1st Season)
STADIUM: RFK Stadium (45,596)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: CB Charles Woodson, FS Ed Reed, DT Anthony McFarland, HB Deuce McCallister, WR Deion Branch
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: DT Kenard Lang comes over to the Federals from Arizona, where he will be paired with McFarland. That inside duo could be just what former DC Kurt Schottenheimer needs to make Washington’s already solid defnes truly elite. With McFarland occupying 2 blocks, there will be opportunity for Lang to penetrate and disrupt the run game, and the duo should make life very manageable for MLB Ike Reese, who should be able to shoot gaps, and cut off outside runs, making the run defense one of the league’s best.
OUTLOOK: Coach Schottenheimer inherits the team after the retirement of Coach Hackett. That is not a bad way to come into a head coaching position, because it does not mean that you inherit a team with big problems. Washington won the division last year mostly on the strength of the defense and Deuce McCallister’s legs. Kordell Stewart missed several games with injury, and seems to have lost some of the quickness that made him so dangerous as a dual threat in the past. Without the prospect of him running with the ball, the Federals’ QB is less effective, and honestly not accurate enough to be considered an elite passer. That has to worry Schottenheimer, but with the defense we expect to see, as long as Stewart does not start producing unwelcome turnovers, it could still be enough to make a playoff push.
TAMPA BAY BANDITS 10-4 in 2005
COACH: Steve Spurrier (3rd Season—this time around)
STADIUM: Raymond James Stadium (75,000)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Daunte Culpepper, HB Willis McGahee, WR Randy Moss, DT Sean Gilbert, LB Kevin Mitchell
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: Safety Idrees Basheer comes to the Bandits from the NFL this year and is expected to make an immediate impact. Known as a big hitter and a bit of a ballhawk, Basheer could be a difference maker in a defense that often gets overlooked in Tampa Bay. Bandit Ball has always been about offense, but if the Bandits are going to get over the playoff hump and into a 3rd Summer Bowl, it will be because the defense improves and gets more takeaways, leading to more offensive production.
OUTLOOK: This is a team that can blow you out of the water, and yet so often they seem to shoot themselves in the foot. Their defense was solid last year, and could be better this year. Their offense looks like it should score 40 every week, and yet doesn’t. Moss and Culpepper are a deadly combo, but we think McGahee is underused, and we are just not sure that sticking with Chris Doering as the #2 receiver makes Tampa Bay dangerous enough to match some of the other high-power offenses in the league. If they are going to reach the title game, they need to get more from the defense, particularly takeaways, and they need to diversify the attack by using McGahee and TE Jeremy Shockey to greater effect. If they can do that they can be a true title contender.
JACKSONVILLE BULLS 9-5 in 2005
COACH: (8th Season)
STADIUM: Alltel Stadium (67,838)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: LB Mike Vrabel, LB Lavar Arrington, QB Jake Delhomme, HB Antowain Smith, CB Terrell Buckley
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: If Jacksonville is going to make some noise, it will likely be on defense. They have an outstanding LB corps, led by Vrabel and Arrington, but the secondary needs to step up. So, that means CB Terrell Buckley needs to become an elite coverage corner. He has all the tools, but has never put together a truly consistent season. If he can come away with 6-8 picks and reduce his catch to target ratio, this Bulls D can be dangerous. The Bulls need him to be a true #1 corner, and if he is, they will be a Top 5 defense.
OUTLOOK: Coach Cunningham has had this team on the brink of moving from good to great for a while now. The issue seems to be that they have a lot of players who are solid, but few who are spectacular. Jake Delhomme is the poster child for that. He is a solid QB, does not make a lot of mistakes, but also is not the guy to pull out a game in the final seconds. Antowain Smith will get you 1,000 yards in a season, but will not get you 150 in a game. Rashaun Woods looks like the player most ready to make the leap from very good to great, and Anquon Boldin has shown flashes as well. If the defense is as good as we think they can be, then the offense only has to be top-half to be successful. Notice how many ifs we see here. That tells you what you need to know?
ORLANDO RENEGADES 4-9-1 in 2005
COACH: Emmitt Thomas (2nd Season)
STADIUM: Florida Citrus Bowl (60,219)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: HB Sedrick Irvin, SS Tyrone Carter, LB Al Wilson, DT Pat Williams, QB Jeff Blake
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: Jeff Blake has to take another step up if Orlando is going to be competitive. Given the offense as the full time starter last season, he responded with 2,858 yards and 15 TDs. For Orlando to be competitive, we need to see 3,500 yards and at least 20 TDs from Blake. Is he capable of that? We are not sure, but if he can do it, the Renegades will be in solid shape and could make a run at Jacksonville for 2nd place.
OUTLOOK: When you look at the roster of the Renegades, you don’t get excited. Even their Top 5 player list was a bit tough to put together because none of their “stars” are truly among the league elite. This is a blue collar bunch playing in a town known for magic, and that magic has been lacking. So how will Orlando win games? By playing solid, consistent, and mistake-free football. That seems the best path and perhaps the only path for this squad because the explosiveness and firepower is just not there compared to others in the conference.
ATLANTA FIRE Expansion team in 2006
COACH: Jay Gruden (1st Year)
STADIUM: Georgia Dome (71,228)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: C Jim Pyne, FS Jerome Woods, HB Kevin Faulk, WR Josh Reed, LB Na’il Diggs
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: The Georgia Dome. Yup, we are picking the dome as the breakout player. Why? Well, because for the first time the fans in Atlanta can enjoy spring and summer football without having to endure monsoon rains, inhumane humidity, and sweltering heat. The first Atlanta Fire club, playing in open air Bobby Dodd Stadium, could never generate the fanbase that could help propel them to more wins. The hope, and early ticket sales seem to support this, is that inside the dome they could build a true home field advantage and have a stadium atmosphere that helps them find inspiration to win.
OUTLOOK: Look, this is an expansion team, and while this year’s process helped them land some pretty good players, they are not elite, have few elite players, and have no coherence as a team. We expect that will mean a month or more before they can start to see quality results on the field, and perhaps more than 1 season to build a roster that can win consistently. That is to be expected. We like Jeff Lewis as a transition QB, but they will eventually try to find a truly elite signal caller. We are not sure about a backfield of Faulk and Smart, and the receiving corps lacks speed. The one area where they could excel early is on special teams, thanks to the signing of Dante Hall as a kick and punt returner.
NASHVILLE KNIGHTS 8-6 in 2005
COACH: Jim Johnson (12th Season)
STADIUM: LP Field (67,700)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: HB Frank Gore, LB Michael Barrow, DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, WR Derrick Mason, WR Bert Emmanuel
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: The Knights defense got a boost with the signing of Michael Barrow, but we think the key player for this defense will be Jared Allen on the D-line. Allen improved from 2 sacks his rookie campaign to 9 sacks last season. Lined up opposite KGB, he could be primed to become a Top 5 sack leader in the league. The guy is all motor, all determination, and all effort, and that makes him very dangerous.
OUTLOOK: We are not sure if Nashville is a contender ready to take the next step or a team about to go through a retooling period. What puts us in that frame of mind is the drafting of Jay Cutler. Cutler is clearly the future for this team, but is the future now? As we have said before, Todd Collins is a solid game manager, but in the USFL, that is often not enough, as we saw in last year’s playoffs, when the Dragons came into Nashville and knocked off the Southern division champs in the Wild Card round. If the Knights get off to a slow start, or even if their offense seems sluggish, how long will Coach Johnson wait before giving Cutler a chance to show why he was rated a Top 10 draft pick by so many? Johnson has been the coach of the Knights for over a decade, and while the playoffs have been common, a title has eluded him. Can he afford another good, not great season?
MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS 6-7-1 in 2005
COACH: Jim Mora Sr (9th Season)
STADIUM: Liberty Bowl Stadium (58,325)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Heath Shuler, WR Robert Ferguson, DE Julius Peppers, LB Hannibal Navies, FS Tebucky Jones
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: If the Showboats are going to move back over .500 and battle for a playoff spot the one player who needs a breakout season is 2nd year running back Cadillac Williams. Williams established himself as the bell cow back for the Showboats last year, racking up 866 yards in 14 games, but if Memphis wants to build a balanced offense, they will need to see his 3.4 yards per carry average increase to 4.0 or higher and his total yards over 1,000. That is not a big leap for a talented back, and it is not uncommon that we see rookie backs struggle both with the transition to the pro game and the lack of a true offseason in their first year. We would not be surprised at all to see Williams bust out this year and become a true weapon for the Showboats.
OUTLOOK: We like Memhis as a contender in the division and as a team that could take a big step forward. The Defense has some playmakers at each level, DT Leon Bender and their pair of DE’s Julius Peppers and Dameaion Jeffries can be disruptive. Linebackers Kirk Morrison and Hannibal Navies are not the most athletic but have a nose for the ball, and safeties Jones and Coy Wire are a solid duo. They are a bit understaffed at corner, which is a concern, but overall this can be a Top 10 defense. The offense will depend a lot on Cadillac Williams, because once again Memphis failed to truly do much to improve their WR corps. They added MarTay Jenkins, but it still feels like they are asking Robert Ferguson to take on the #1 role, which feels like too much of an ask.
NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS 5-8-1 in 2005
COACH: Mike Nolan (6th Season)
STADIUM: New Orleans will play one game each in Memphis, Birmingham and Houston before finishing the season with 4 home games based at Portland’s new Columbia Sportswear Stadium (56,744).
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Eli Manning, HB Troy Davis, TE Bubba Franks, DE Ty Warren, WR Keenan McCardell
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: Cornerback Randall Gay enters his third season with a lot of high hopes. After a rookie campaign in which he had 5 picks, teams still felt comfortable targeting him in 2005, and yet he only had 1 pick last season. If teams are going to throw his direction, we need to see more of his tips and deflections turn into picks. He has a ton of talent, and has become a solid tackler, but what New Orleans needs from him is the ability to concern opposing passers, to reduce the effectiveness of their top receivers.
OUTLOOK: We expect this will be a very tough season for the Breakers. Not only must they deal with the emotional, physical, and financial toll of Katrina, but even with good fan support in Memphis, Birmignham, Houston and Portland, it will still very much feel like playing 14 road games. Even keeping games close will have to be seen as a moral victory. If New Orleans is going to have any success at all, it will require that Eli Manning take a big step forward in his third year. He started all 14 games last season and he had moments, completing 68.3% of his passes, and throwing for 3,239 yards, but his TD-INT ratio of 17-11 has to improve. New Orleans added veteran receiver Keenan McCardell, who is a consummate pro, and should help Manning on more third downs. With McCardell and another new addition, Cedric Tillman, out wide, Hakeem can move back to the slot, where he is at his best. That, plus the presence of Bubba Franks inside, is a pretty solid group to work with. The run game will depend on the success of the passing game, as we don’t see either Davis or Chris Perry able to carry a true power run game. Draws and misdirection will be key. The defense has some strengths, but has not come together as a unit. All this, plus the vagabond nature of the season have us believing that an equaling of their 5-win season from 2005 will be a major accomplishment.
BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS 2-12 in 2005
COACH: Dennis Franchione (4th Season)
STADIUM: Legion Field (71,594)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: HB Shaun Alexander, WR Joe Horn, LB Ted Johnson, DE Mike Rucker, CB James Trapp
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: Rookie LB DeMeco Ryans is going to be a day 1 starter and could be a key to improving the Stallions’ less than stellar defensive record under Franchione. The Stallions have some good talent on defense, starting with Mike Rucker, but they need to be faster and more athletic, and Ryans can provide that. If Birmingham can be mid-range on defense, they go a long way to moving back to a competitive squad.
OUTLOOK: As much as we think DeMeco Ryans is important to the defense, there is no denying that all the hopes in Birmingham rely on QB Jason Campbell making a major leap in his 2nd season. His 1,834 yards and 10-8 TD-INT ratio in his rookie campaign are just not the stuff that is going to help Birmingham return to glory. Yes, it was a bad team across the board last year, and Campbell dealt with injuries, but he did start 10 games, and if he is going to be the starter moving forward, the Stallions are going to see more. And, speaking of more, we are still waiting for Shaun Alexander to have his first 1,000 yard season. We see the talent in fits and starts all season long, but either he is not given the ball enough, or the line is not helping him enough, but it just feels like if Alexander does not see growth this year, he needs to find a new home. It was easy to blame his issues on a Brett-Favre-dominant offense early on, but there is no excuse now for the Stallions not to return to the run-first attitude that brought them so much success during the Joe Cribbs years. One thousand yards or he should push for a trade, it is just that simple.
OHIO GLORY 9-5 in 2005
COACH: Al Luginbill (8th Season)
STADIUM: Ohio Stadium (102,708)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Kerry Collins, HB Eddie George, WR Joey Galloway, DE Vonnie Holliday, FS Mike Doss
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: Rookie WR Santonio Holmes is being treated like the second coming of Joey Galloway in Columbus. Another top flight wideout from the Buckeyes, the comparisons come easily, but the two are very different players with very different roles to play. However, if Holmes can translate his college success into his new role as the 2nd target for Kerry Collins, this offense can return to the lofty heights of the 2002 and 2003 championship years. All the other pieces are there.
OUTLOOK: We think Ohio’s offense can be special once again, but in 2002, when they went 14-0 and completed the first undefeated season since the Dolphins in 1972 they did it by adding a solid defense to the offensive production. Defense could be a true Achilles heel for the Glory in 2006, and with very tough competition in their division, being a one-trick pony could be a real problem. If they can even be middle of the pack in points allowed, this offense has the capacity to take them back to the Summer Bowl and put to rest all the “end of a dynasty” talk.
CHICAGO MACHINE 11-3 In 2005
COACH: Marty Mornhinweg (8th Season)
STADIUM: Soldier Field (63,500)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Jeff George, WR Donald Driver, LB Brian Urlacher, DE Anthony Weaver, DT Ted Washington.
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: Halfback Michael Turner has put together two solid years, rushing for 759 yards in 2004 and then 820 in 2005, but for Chicago to return to the Summer Bowl it may require more. The truth is that we could have selected all 5 of Chicago’s best players from the defensive side. The offense always seems two steps behind the D, and just as Ohio cannot live by offense alone, Chicago needs more offense to avoid those letdowns when the defensive fire is not enough. If Turner can become a 1,000 yard rusher, it goes a long way to moving the Machine towards a balance of O and D.
OUTLOOK: Chicago took a huge step last year, knocking Ohio off their podium and claiming both the division and the #1 seed. They made a great playoff run before running out of gas against Seattle. In the offseason they added one potential starter on offense in rookie TE Anthony Fasano from Notre Dame, which does not feel like enough. The problem is that they also took some big hits on defense, losing 3 of their 4 starting DBs. That is huge. As much as we love the D-line and as much as Urlacher is a beast of a MLB, if you cannot cover this league’s dynamic receivers with a young and inexperienced secondary, you will struggle. We still like Chicago’s chances, but the odds of a mini-collapse are not astronomical.
MICHIGAN PANTHERS 9-5 in 2005
COACH: Dick LeBeau (4th Season)
STADIUM: Ford Field (64,204)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Drew Brees, WR Hines Ward, CB Deltha O’Neal, SS Mike Brown, LB Andy Katzenmoyer
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: We are not going to pick just one player here, we are going to applaud the bold move Michigan made last year, drafting three dynamic linebackers in the same season. When Katzenmoyer went out, all three were on the field, and by all accounts they outplayed their status as rookies all season long. While we were all swooning at Drew Brees’s production, the trio of Shawne Merriman, DeMarcus Ware and Odell Thurman were locking down the defense. If they can do even more this year, and if Katzenmoyer can return to his 2004 form, this could be one of the best linebacking groups in the league for a very long time.
OUTLOOK: Michigan is our not-so-darkhorse to be this season’s big leaper. They have almost everything they need to be a powerhouse on both sides of the ball. We would like to see a bit more pass rush out of Ekuban and Leonard Little, and we wish that we had more confidence in a rotation between Fred Jackson, Ladell Betts, and rookie Leon Washington, but aside from those issues, this is a team that can compete each and every week. And if the halfback trio can combine for 1,200-1,400 yards, this could be a very dangerous squad.
PITTSBURGH MAULERS 4-9-1 in 2005
COACH: Ron Rivera (1st Year)
STADIUM: Heinz Field (68,400)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: HB Terrell Davis, WR Vincent Jackson, CB Patrick Surtain, SS Sean Taylor, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: Pittsburgh needs a lot of their younger players to break out if they want to win more than 7 games this year. But for all the youth across the roster, it is 8-year veteran QB Charlie Batch who needs to step things up the most. He has had some good years, like a 27-TD 2000 season and then 33 TDs the next year, but last year was a regression, with Batch only playing in 9 games and only throwing for 8 TDs in that span. Time is running out for Batch to get back to that early 2000’s form, and it is running out for 31-year old Terrell Davis.
OUTLOOK: The Maulers look and feel like a club that may just have to blow it all up and rebuild, at least on offense. They have a good young corps of receives, but Batch and Davis may not be able to give them enough to be truly competitive. Coach Rivera has focused on defense in his first offseason, but may have to consider a QB hunt and possibly both QB and HB in the next year unless Davis shows incredible longevity and Batch makes a big leap. Playing 8 division games this year will be a rough run for a team that needs to redefine itself under a new coach. Thankfully 2 of those will be against expansion St. Louis.
ST. LOUIS SKYHAWKS Expansion Team in 2006
COACH: Art Shell (First Year)
STADIUM: The Dome At America’s Center (66,965)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: DE Santana Dotson, FS Tyrone Drakeford, FB Vontae Leach, WR Taylor Jacobs, CB Tod Mcbride
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: The hope in St. Louis is that either Quincy Carter or HB Larry Johnson sees their opportunity in 2005 with this new franchise. Both have struggled in their early careers, but Coach Shell has confidence that both are primed to break out. This is an expansion team, and their roster is not loaded, but it has some decent talent, so if they can get a break out season from either offensive weapon, they could be an early success story.
OUTLOOK: The Skyhawks will have an enthusiastic home crowd, having already sold over 30,000 season tickets in the Dome. They have an owner committed to building a winner and a no nonsense head coach with good history for getting more from less. They will need all those things because the roster is not talent-rich, and while there are some solid individual players on both sides of the ball, there is not a dominant, or even Top 10 group at any position. It typically takes 3-4 years for an expansion club to find true success. Ohio got their first title in their 6th season, if that is any indication, but of the 4 clubs in 1995, they were the fastest, with Seattle competitive on and off, culminating in their 11th season with a title. Atlanta/Boston has finally started to look good, while LA, the fourth 1995 expansion club is still struggling to find itself. So, the odds for a quick and sustainable success in St. Louis are not high.
HOUSTON GAMBLERS 9-5 in 2005
COACH: Wade Phllips (7th Season)
STADIUM: NRG Stadium (72,220)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Matt Hasselbeck, WR Antonio Freeman, DE Kavika Pittman, DT Richard Seymour, CB Ronde Barber
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: As much as we want to find a HB who will bust out, the combo of Mike Anderson, Tatum Bell, and Anthony Thomas has not shown us much to anticipate this. The obvious choice is DE Osi Umenyiura, who jumped from 4 sacks in 2004 with Nashville to 9 sacks last year, his first with the Gamblers. Gambler fans have visions of a new Michael Sinclair-Kavika Pittman combo when they look at Umenyiura. If that happens, then Houston can improve on a 9-win season and again capture the #1 seed in the west, a tougher conference now that Ohio, Chicago, and Michigan have switched conferences as part of the expansion.
OUTLOOK: Houston has all the weapons on defense that they need. They are stacked, and can be scary when they are in synch. The offense is still very much a pass-first endeavor, and the addition of TE Vernon Davis makes them even more dangerous. They can line up in a 2-TE formation and be just as likely to pass as to run inside. We see Davis, Dan Campbell, Freeman, Williams, Robinson, David Patten, and Drew Bennett as perhaps the deepest receiving corps in all of the USFL. Maybe Coach Phillips should bring in Mouse Davis to reinstate the Run & Shoot, because this is a team that should be throwing the ball 50 times a game. If they can get any semblance of a run game to help kill the clock, this could be a very special team.
ARIZONA WRANGLERS 3-11 in 2005
COACH: Jim Fassel (3rd Season)
STADIUM: Valley of the Sun Stadium (63,400)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Jake Plummer, WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR Santana Moss, DT Jason Peter, CB Jimmy Williams
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: If Arizona is going to bounce back after a truly disastrous 2005 campaign, a lot of pressure will be put on a defense that was lights out in 2004, and knocked out last year. The player who could help make that happen is LB Lance Briggs. Briggs had 89 tackles last year. If he can be a 100-tackle man in his 4th year in the league, Arizona could be a much better defensive squad. They have a lot of holes to be concerned about (cough-run game-cough), but if the LB corps of Briggs, Dansby, and Jordan can play to their capabilities, the Wranglers could be competitive again.
OUTLOOK: It feels like a broken record talking about Arizona. Every year we praise their receivers, praise Jake Plummer’s escapability, and then trash talk the run game. But every year we are right to do so. What was different in 2005? How did they win the division? Defense. And that will be the key to this year as well. Yes, last year, playing without Plummer was a disaster, but so was the defense. If they can get close to their 2004 level of commitment on that side of the ball, and if Plummer can stay healthy (two big ifs), Arizona could be right in the hunt in this division.
DENVER GOLD 9-5 in 2005
COACH: Dick Jauron (10th season)
STADIUM: Invesco Field at Mile High (76,125)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: DE Marcellus Wiley, TE Lonnie Johnson, WR Peerless Price, FS Jamel Williams, DT Montae Reager
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: When you actually dust off the wallet, open it up, and put your money where your mouth is, you hope you have chosen wisely. Denver spent big to wrest QB Matt Leinart out of the NFL picture and sign the talented USC product. They have some weapons around him in Price, Stokes, and Benson, and they have a tried and true formula of slow playing games, solid defense, balance with the run game, and short passing. If Leinart can be anything like he showed at USC, they can stay at or near the top of the division. If he struggles, so will the Gold as a team.
OUTLOOK: That is a lot of pressure on a rookie QB. Mark Brunell was an institution in Denver, starting for the Gold from 1994 through 2005. He brought the Gold 11 playoff appearances, 3 Summer Bowl appearances, and a league title in that time. That is a lot to live up to. Coach Jauron will be sure to try to spread the responsibility of maintaining Denver’s incredible success to the entire team, but we all know that it is Leinart who is the key to this year. We wish the Gold had been able to keep Rod Smart, because there is concern that the run game has taken a step back, but there is talent all over this roster, so if the team can come together to support their rookie QB, they could again prove very successful.
TEXAS OUTLAWS 3-11 in 2005
COACH: John Mackovic (2nd Season0
STADIUM: The Alamodome (64,000)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: HB T.J. Duckett, WR Ike Hilliard, DT Luis Castillo, LB Kailee Wong, CB Nathan Vasher
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: We already listed Nathan Vasher as one of Texas’s 5 best players, but we think he is primed for a break out season. He jumped from 1 pick as a rookie to 4 last year, and in a defense that improved significantly with the arrival of LB Kailee Wong and SS Lawyer Molloy, Vasher could become a true weapon for this defense. The concern is that the DE combo of Bob Kuberski and Dimitrius Underwood will not get enough pressure to force quick throws, which could make Vasher’s job a lot tougher.
OUTLOOK: After a 3-win season it is hard to be optimistic in San Antonio. Looking at what Houston, Denver, and even Arizona might be able to do this year, it is even a tougher call to be an optimist in Outlawland. Fans are hoping that in his first full season since coming over from New Orleans, QB Trent Difler can find some magic, but Texas simply does not have many weapons for Dilfer to utilize. Rookie Marques Colston, a late round pick, was good enough in camp to become the slot receiver, but he is more suited on the outside. Eleven-year vet Freddie Solomon is not suddenly going to jump up in quality, and Ike Hilliard is not a deep ball threat in his 7th year. That is a worry. T.J. Duckett is a solid grinder, but also not a player who will bust off long game-changing runs. We just don’t see the offense doing a lot, which means Coach Mackovic needs to find a way to turn this defense into something special.
SEATTLE DRAGONS 6-8 in 2005 (League Champion)
COACH: Marvin Lewis (4th Season)
STADIUM: Qwest Field (68,740)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Byron Leftwich, HB Corey Dillon, WR David Boston, LB Takeo Spikes, LB Godfrey Miles
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: The whole team broke out last year in that amazing playoff run, but if one player can shine this year to keep Seattle on top, the Dragons hope it will be 3rd year DE Travis LaBoy. John Abraham has been the main sack man in Seattle for several years, but LaBoy is more athletic and should see more single blocks. If he can improve on a 5-sack season in 2004, and 4 in 2005, the Dragon defense could be very solid. They have a lot of talent with Marques Truffant, and their two dynamic LBs, but a pass rush that is truly dangerous has been lacking.
OUTLOOK: We are still trying to figure out exactly how Seattle did it last year, going from a 6-8 team and 6th seed all the way to a league title. The short answer is that the team peaked at exactly the right time. So how do you capture that essence and repeat it? Seattle still has a lot of the holes that were issues in the regular season last year, no true 2nd WR, a weak pass rush, trouble with consistency, but if they can capture some of the magic of that run last year, they are a clear favorite in a pretty weak Pacific Division. If Corey Dillon can start strong and if Byron Leftwich can find options outside of David Boston, the Dragons could be a contender once again.
OAKLAND INVADERS 8-6 in 2005
COACH: Dennis Green (4th Season)
STADIUM: Oakland McAfee Coliseum (62,784)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Trent Green, HB Ricky Williams, WR Plaxico Burress, DE Justin Smith, LB Roosevelt Colvin
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: The Invaders pulled off a big trade with Texas to bring Justin Smith to the Bay. The speedy, strong DE recorded 11 sacks in both 2003 and 2004 with the Outlaws, and Oakland has high hopes he could become a league leader in the category as they line him up with Joe Salave’a and Israel Idonije. If he can get to that lofty 15-20 sack range, Oakland can take the division title again.
OUTLOOK: Dennis Green has gone from a 2-win first season to a division title in his third season, ending Oakland’s long playoff drought in the process. He finds himself this year being asked to take yet another step, but he has a lot of talent to make it happen. We love the Justin Smith trade, the drafting of GregJennings to go with Booker and Burriss, and the fact that they protected Joey Harrington in the Expansion Draft, meaning that Green has clear ideas that transition from 13-year vet Trent Green is inevitable. We think Green is still the starter, but after seeing what happened when Jake Plummer went down in Arizona, having a player like Harrington available and being mentored by Green is a very good insurance policy. Oakland will challenge Seattle this year, and could win the division again.
LOS ANGELES EXPRESS 5-9 in 2005
COACH: Hue Jackson (1st Season)
STADIUM: Farmers Insurance Field (70,102)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Cade McNown, WR Keyshawn Johnson, WR Tory Holt, DE Jevon Kearse, DE Keneche Udeze
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: While he has been outstanding already as a dynamic player and a brutal hitman, SS Troy Polamalu has to add one more trick to his repertoire this year, leadership. LA’s defense needs a vocal leader. They have talent, especially on the D-line with Udeze and Kearse, and they have some solid pieces a LB, but the secondary has been an overall disappointment. Polamalu draws a lot of attention, but unless they can get better across the back play consistently, the Express will continue to struggle.
OUTLOOK: Hue Jackson takes over a team that has enough stars to be a 10-win team, and yet can never seem to play together week in and week out. He will need to focus on culture and consistency this year. He has the pieces to be competitive in the division, but can he turn those pieces into a well-oiled machine? One key would be the run game. Not going after Reggie Bush seems a vote of confidence that DeShaun Foster can return to the 1,000 yard-8 TD form of 2004. But, we are also intrigued that LA did go after and sign Maurice Jones-Drew out of UCLA, a player who may get 10-12 carries a game and could be a dynamic change of pace. Change of pace is exactly what the entire team needs, an urgency and a focus on execution.
LAS VEGAS THUNDER 2-12 in 2005
COACH: Jerry Glanville (2nd Season)
STADIUM: Sam Boyd Stadium (39,480)
TOP 5 PLAYERS: QB Steve McNair, WR Muhsin Muhammad, DE Hugh Douglas, LB Joey Porter, CB Will Allen
BREAKOUT PLAYER FOR 2005: Las Vegas made a huge splash only 3 weeks ago, signing Steve “Air” McNair to be their QB at the very end of the NFL-USFL transfer window. It is a bold move, one that clearly indicates that both Thunder ownership and Coach Glanville are not going to take a slow “build through the draft” strategy. McNair has some good weapons to work with, though we are still concerned that a RB corps of Dominic Rhodes, Julius Jones and Detron Smith is not exactly a recipe for immediate success.
OUTLOOK: If Las Vegas jumps out of the basement after 3 straight losing seasons, it will likely be due to McNair’s leadership and an improved defense. The Thunder added muscle and skill with the acquisitions of DTs Ellis Johnson, Marcus Stroud, and CB Antoine Winfield. They also landed two more defensive studs in the draft, taking another DT in Oregon’s Haloti Ngata in the T-Draft and then jumped on A.J. Hawk with the #4 overall pick in the Open Draft. If This works out and Las Vegas can develop a shut down defense, then McNair may find his life gets a lot easier. We still wish the Thunder had a clear #1 back, and a quality receiver under the age of 31, but for now defense seems the key to any success Las Vegas will encounter this year.
We already indicated the 12 teams we think will appear in the 2006 playoffs. Boston, Philly, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Nashville in the East. Ohio, Chicago, Michigan, Houston, Arizona, and Seattle in the West. There are others who could make an appearance, but for now these are the 12 we are going with. We see the East as a battle of two offensive dynamos, Tampa Bay and Ohio, but we could see a team like Philadelphia or Jacksonville spoiling the party. In the West, Houston and Ohio seem to be on a collision course, but we cannot count out Seattle or Chicago. And, of course, we have no idea if 2006 will produce another moderate surprise like New Jersey in 2004 or a huge surprise like Seattle’s title run last year. The odds say that the USFL title is almost always won by a division winner, often a 1 or 2 seed. So that makes us look at Tampa Bay, Boston, Houston, and Ohio very seriously.
We debated and discussed at great length, trying to be somewhat outside the box, but the truth is that the overwhelming sentiment was that we were going to go with two of these 4 teams. We settled on Tampa Bay and Ohio as our two picks, setting up a high velocity, high scoring Summer Bowl in Philadelphia. A tough call in the end, but we have just a smidge more faith in the Bandit defense than in the Glory D, and while both offenses are explosive, defense, even just a stop or two, or a timely turnover, could be the difference. Our pick for the 2006 champion is the Tampa Bay Bandits. But please, do not bet the mortgage on this.
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