--October 14, 2008
A rough and tumble start to the offseason has seen a lot of movement, a lot of drama, and a lot of concern as the players’ union and the USFL are not looking like they will have a new CBA any time soon, with potentially crushing ramifications. We start with what has been the story of the offseason, the frenzy of activity as no fewer than 6 teams try to make their best case to acquire 2-time league MVP Jake Plummer from the Arizona Wranglers. We will look at the offseason retirements, trades, free agency and NFL-USFL window, that sent several significant contributors to the fall. We finish up with a preview of January’s Collegiate Draft, oh, and along the way 3 of 4 clubs lock down their head coaching positions. A lot to cover, let’s get to it.
Jake Plummer Finds a Home After a Wild Bidding War
Rather than sum up what happened over the past 6 weeks, we thought that a timeline might help to show just how Jake Plummer’s precarious dance with suitors turned and twisted. As teams negotiated with Arizona, blindly trying to outbid competitors whose standing was never really known to them, Plummer complicated the process by all-but-announcing that there were several potential landing spots that he would simply veto, using his no-trade clause to essentially tie the Wranglers’ hands. In all honesty, it is rather surprising a deal was done at all after the Wranglers and Plummer had internal quarrels about the quarterback’s options and demands.
So, here is our summation of the 4 weeks that changed the fortunes of at least 6 teams in the USFL. Where it goes from here we can only wait and see.
17 Aug—Leaks from inside the Arizona Wrangler organization confirm that five clubs have submitted serious trade offers with Birmingham, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, and St. Louis all in play. It appears that none of the bids met the announced expectation for a minimum of two #1 picks plus other considerations. Arizona officials corresponded with all five clubs to inform them that they were, in fact, in a serious bidding war, and that the winning franchise would almost certainly sweeten the pot beyond the original ask.
22 Aug—Five days later the Pittsburgh Maulers withdraw their offer, and state that they are no longer interested in pursuing Plummer. Maulers’ Head Coach Ron Rivera states that while the club will always seek ways to improve the team, they are happy with the development of QB Cody Pickett and do not feel any need to enter into a roster- and future-diminishing trade to acquire a new signalcaller. Fans in Pittsburgh are upset, but quickly turn their attention to the T-Draft and the possibility that the Maulers’ could make a move to secure West Virginia Heisman hopeful Pat White.
25 Aug—In and interview with ESPN, Jake Plummer explains his rationale for demanding a trade, and his hopes for a new opportunity. During the interview he states, somewhat nonchalantly, that he has provided the club with a list of other USFL franchises which are acceptable to him. When pressed, he will not reveal any clubs, but does say that the list encompasses about half of the league. The question, of course, is how many of the clubs he named are clubs that are in the market for a QB, and if any are among the remaining 5 clubs that have sent the Wranglers an initial trade offer. There is rampant speculation that several of the clubs that are most desperate for a QB did not appear on the list. Of course, with Plummer having a no-trade clause in his contact, he does have the ability to veto any move if he does not feel that the new opportunity suits his interests.
26 Aug—Steve McNair makes his retirement announcement official, making QB a top priority for the Thunder. Pressure mounts on Las Vegas to provide greater return to Arizona to try to sway the Wranglers into considering a Western Conference club, over the other, bids, 2 of which are Eastern clubs. Rumors swirl that the Thunder do make a counter offer to the Wranglers, but that Arizona is waiting to see what others might also offer.
1 Sept—Doug Williams is spotted in Phoenix, prompting speculation that he is on site to finalize a deal with the Wranglers to send Plummer to St. Louis. No confirmation from either side that a deal has been reached, and Williams is not available for interviews, though it does seem clear that he did visit with the Wrangler organization.
3 Sept—Two days after Doug Williams was seen in Arizona, Jerry Glanville of Las Vegas is seen on the premises of the Wranglers’ facilities. This makes two head coaches in 3 days visiting with the Wranglers. Rumors out of the Thunder organization are that the club is ready to meet the 2-first round pick minimum, and perhaps sweeten the deal even further.
4 Sep—New Jersey releases a press statement, announcing that they are no longer committed to the negotiation process with Arizona. While the official announcement says nothing about the cause of their withdrawal from the process, there is widespread speculation that New Jersey was among the teams that Plummer had specifically listed as unacceptable options. With an offense very much in transition, and no receivers who would be considered elite, this very much seems like a possible back story to their withdrawal. Coach Edwards refuses to answer questions, saying only that he is very much involved in the Generals’ upcoming personnel decisions.
8 Sept—Birmingham executives meet with Jake Plummer and his agent in Dallas to discuss potential requirements Plummer would have to include Birmingham in the short list of viable targets. This all but confirms that the Stallions were off the original list and felt the need to persuade the QB of their seriousness. With Jason Campbell no longer a fallback option, the Stallions are very much committed to the process and to convincing Plummer that they are a solid destination for him.
11 Sept—Arizona announces that a preliminary deal has been reached, and set up a press conference for September 14th to allow time to iron out the final details and introduce the deal formally. Fan websites for all three primary contenders in the hunt for Plummer start to speculate wildly about the announcement. Coach Williams, attending a game at Grambling is bombarded with questions but will not speak about the matter. Coach Glanville is equally silent.
14 Sept—The Arizona Wranglers, in a press conference held at University of Phoenix Stadium, formally announce that a trade has been submitted to the league offices. Jake Plummer is on hand, as is Jerry Glanville. The announced deal sends Plummer to Las Vegas in exchange for the Thunder’s 2009 and 2010 first round picks as well as an unnamed defensive player. The Thunder immediately update their website with an image of Plummer and the slogan “There is a New Dealer at the table.”
16 Sept—It is revealed that the player to be named later is linebacker Orlando Huff, an outside linebacker entering his third season, having moved from 1 start as a rookie to 7 in 2008. It is reported that Huff was a specific request of the Wranglers and Coach Tomsula. On the same day, the NFL’s Los Angeles Raiders announce the signing of former Stallion QB Jason Campbell. Stallion fans are incensed by their club’s situation, still with no head coach and now no clear direction at QB. Ownership refuses to comment on the Campbell signing, but states that they never put all their eggs into the Jake Plummer basket and that they believe there are other options for them moving forward.
Sept. 22—In the final news directly linked to the Plummer signing, the Las Vegas Thunder formally introduce Plummer, providing him with a trademark “electric lime” jersey in the #16, while also announcing that they have reached and agreement with Tony Banks to return as the #2 quarterback.
And so it is Jerry Glanville and the Thunder who come away happiest after a grueling 2 months of negotiations. Birmingham, St. Louis, New Jersey, and Pittsburgh are now looking at the draft, free agency, and whatever pool of NFL options might arrive just as camps open in February. The Thunder are now clearly set at the position and can try to ensure that Plummer has the weapons around him and the line in front of him to be successful with a club that just barely missed the playoffs in 2008.
Fear of USFL/USFLPA Lockout Rise
What was once one possibility out of many is looking more and more like a very real potential issue for the USFL. Meetings to produce a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between the USFLPA and the USFL labor committee have been deadlocked for months. The issue of revenue sharing and the salary cap have been a major issue of contention, as has the newly revised NFL agreement which pushes the transfer windows solidly into the early weeks of both the NFL season in September/October and the USFL season in March.
Players are demanding 55% of all revenue generated by the USFL must be invested in player personnel in the form of both an expanded salary cap and a new range of salary minimums which would be aligned with years of experience and past performance. The owners are pushing back that contracts should not be tied to past performance or to seniority and that allowances must be made to attract new talent, as the league competes with the NFL to sign both free agents and college draft picks. The league is also holding firm to its “final offer” of 51% of league revenue forming the cap. They seem willing to institute minimum salary expectations, but while the players are pushing for this on a player-by-player, position-by-position standard, the league is pushing for a team minimum, essentially a minimum cap expenditure to pair with the maximum expenditure.
The impasse between the two means that as we head into the pre-Draft portion of the season, both parties have to identify their limits when it comes to playing without a CBA. While the USFLPA has indicated that they do not anticipate a strike as the result of negotiations, citing that the current CBA has an extension clause that would keep it in effect if no new deal can be reached, the owners appear to be pushing for a harder line, raising the issue of a lockout. A lockout of players would mean that players would not receive payment on their contracts for any missed camp, preseason, or regular season weeks in which they are blocked from play by the lockout. What it means for fans is a very real risk that the labor standoff could impact the 2009 season, either delaying the season or causing its cancellation.
Now, that last possibility is very extreme. We have not seen a full season cancellation in a major sport in a long time, but we have certainly seen labor disputes lead to shortened seasons, cancelled games, even rosters of scab players suiting up when a union has called for a strike. It has been a long time since we have seen this in football, with the last major labor-related stoppage occurring in 1982, just before the USFL took the field in spring 1983. Many have speculated that the open competition between the two pro football leagues has been a major reason why we have not seen more labor disputes. The presence of the USFL created a competitive market for players that had not existed since the AFL merged with the NFL in the late 1960’s. This market drove up player salaries and forced both leagues to maintain a focus on player acquisition and retention, a focus which allowed the players unions in both leagues to make significant strides towards greater free agency and more player-friendly contract terms. Even the introduction of a salary cap for both leagues worked in their favor, ensuring that all teams in both leagues had to remain competitive with salaries within a fixed range, one often benefitting the rank-and-file players, who saw their compensation rise from $40-$50k in the mid 1980’s to the low $200,000 range today.
It seems that the USFLPA and USFL have, at least up until now, reached a point where that player-focused growth has begun to strain ownership and their desire to see profitability across the board. Just how far ownership is willing to go to “reign in” the player demands and the growth of labor costs for their product, that remains to be seen. But as of right now they are not giving much to the players as a means of acquiring a mutually beneficial agreement, and that could end up costing the fans more than anyone.
Retirement rundown
The opening month of the offseason saw the usual wave of retirement announcements, and while we did not get the big one that we were expecting, that of QB Drew Bledsoe, there were many players who have hung up their helmets for the last time whose absence will impact their teams. Among the prominent USFL players to hang it up after the 2008 USFL season we find these impact players and contributors:
Quarterbacks Steve McNair (LV), Rick Mirer (NSH), Alex Van Pelt (BAL), and Jeff George (LV)
Receivers Amani Toomer (POR) and Alex Van Dyke (TEX)
Centers Bubba Miller (BOS), Gene McGuire (LA) Steve McKeinney (PHI) and Joe Zelenka (TEX)
Tackles John Merrill (PHI), Willie Anderson (PIT), Korey Stringer (POR), and Lomas Brown (SEA)
Defensive linemen Pat Williams (ORL), Barron Tanner (POR), Grady Jackson (NSH), Chance McCarty (CHA), John Engleberger (ORL) and Regan Upshaw (PHI)
Linebackers John Mobley (BIR) and Godfrey Miles (SEA)
Defensive backs Tyrone Poole (CHA), Terrell Buckley (NSH), Travares Tillman (TEX) and Shaun Williams (HOU),
Kicker Steve Christie
The loss of All-USFL players like Regan Upshaw, Terrell Buckley, Godfrey Miles, and Pat Williams will certainly be the toughest positions to fill, but any departure is always a chance for new stars to emerge. We should also note that after 2 months of free agency there are several big-name players who are 34-years old or older who have yet to catch on with teams, including LB Michael Barrow, WR Muhsin Muhammad, DE Santana Dotson, CB Terrell Buckley, SS Lawyer Milloy, G Jamie Nails, and LB Roman Pfifer. Whether these players will resign with their former clubs or take short-term contracts with a new club is still uncertain. It seems almost certain that if something does not fall in place quickly, we may see more retirements from this group.
Roster Gaps Lead to Trade Action
With all 28 USFL teams trying to fill gaps in their roster produced by retirement or free agency, the trade wire had been alive over the past two months. We already saw early trades including players such as centers Dominic Raiola and Roberto Garza, WRs Brandon Marshall and Jerrico Cotchery, and LB Robb Morris. Of course, the biggest trade of the year was the one outlined already that sent Jake Plummer to the Las Vegas Thunder, but there were others which will certainly impact the season ahead. Here are the most impactful of the fall trades to date.
The biggest move outside of the Jake Plummer center ring show was an intriguing swapping of offensive talent as Denver dealt away unhappy HB Cedric Benson to Orlando in return for equally unhappy HB Marion Barber and TE Daniel Graham. Benson, who was expected to be a major factor in Denver’s offense when he was drafted out of Texas never materialized as a quality featured back, and this year, demoted to the short yardage role behind Mewelde Moore, Benson spent most of the year grumbling about his role. Orlando may feel they will be able to unlock Benson’s potential, but if not, they still have Jacob Hester and Najeh Davenport to create a rotation. In addition to obtaining Benson, the deal also provides Orlando with Denver’s 5th round pick in 2010.
Orlando and Denver kept busy and LB Barrett Rudd has a new home, traded to the Renegades in a 1-for-1 deal that sent DE Kamerion Wimberley to Denver. The success of Calais Campbell made Wimberley expendable for Orlando, while Denver’s deep LB corps gave the Gold a chance to enhance their line with the deal.
Houston hopes they have found the answer at strong safety after acquiring Corey Gaines from Las Vegas. The Gamblers were able to pull off a 1-for-1 deal by sending the Thunder guard Chris Liwienski. While across the state, the Texas Outlaws, gearing up to play the 2009 season in Dallas, also tried to get some help at Safety, sending this year’s and next year’s 5th rounders to Seattle to acquire SS Terrance Holt.
Nashville found themselves a backup to Frank Gore, obtaining Philadelphia HB Cedric Cobbs for a 4th rounder, while Baltimore also looked for depth behind Ron Dayne, sending a 3rd rounder to Arizona for Antonio Pittman.
The other way teams tried to add talent this offseason (so far) has been through USFL free agency (followed by NFL-USFL transfer). Some big names found themselves with new homes this offseason, but there is plenty of talent left as well. Here is our rundown of the 10 biggest signings to date, followed by our 10 best players still unclaimed.
10—Tackle Anthony Clement leaves Memphis for the Oakland Invaders. Clement turned 30 this year and celebrated by finding himself a very lucrative 3-year deal with the Pacific champs.
9—Strong Safety Sean Taylor resigns with the Maulers. It took longer than expected, with Taylor fielding several offers, but in the end, Pittsburgh knew they could not let their best defensive “hammer” go.
8—LB Kevin Mitchell returns to Tampa Bay to complete his career. The 34-year old signed on for 2 more seasons with the Southeast Champs.
7—Safety Mike Brown will leave the Panthers to join the Jacksonville Bulls, trading in one burgundy jersey for another (though the Bulls prefer to use the word “garnet” instead.)
6—Washington safety Bob Sanders will now line up against his former team twice a year after signing a 4-year deal with New Jersey.
5—With Lomas Brown retiring, we knew Seattle had to do something at left tackle. They opted to go the free agent route and landed on former Express tackle Kenyatta Jones.
4—Boston solved their issue at tackle by biting the bullet and resigning Stockar McDougle to a deal that earns him nearly $1M more per year, from his $500,000 deal to $1,400,000 a year over 3 years.
3—TE Jim Kliensasser leaves Atlanta to join the Memphis Showboats, how is that for a QB upgrade for the receiving end?
2—Jacksonville adds another safety to pair with Mike Brown, getting one of the better young talents in the pool in FS Eric Weddle, formerly with Chicago. That gives the Bulls one of the better 1-2 combos at safety in the league.
1—Atlanta finds themselves a multi-purpose sparkplug in WR Tedd Ginn Jr. the former Baltimore Blitz receiver and returner will absolutely be a part of Coach Ramsey’s plans for the Fire as we expect him to jump into the slot receiver position as well as continuing to field both kicks and punts for his new team.
Looking at the remaining pool of players, there is still a lot of talent left on the board, though, as we have noticed, in some cases it may require teams to look at shorter term deals as several of the top candidates are in their mid-30’s and could be a question mark after a year or two. Our top 10 remaining free agents going into draft season is full of talent, so don’t be shocked if any of these 10 players finds a home soon.
10—Jacksonville WR Javon Walker had a strong rookie year with the Bulls in 2002, and looked like he could grow into a solid #2 option, but was displaced with the rise of Donald Hayes. Despite that, he still brought in 45 catches for 498 yards this year, so the fact that no team has jumped on the 27-year old wideout is a bit surprising.
9—Center Ben Claxton had some good moments for a bad Arizona team this year, but has yet to find a new team.
8—Fullback is clearly not a prioritized position, with some of the best in the game still struggling to get signed. That includes Ayanbadejo (BAL), Deon Dyer (PHI), and Theron Wilson (MEM).
7—Atlanta HB Rod Smart is the Rodney Dangerfield of the league. Everywhere he has gone he has played well and produced good numbers, and yet teams don’t seem to value his contributions. Maybe, as he once famously said of “the Man”, He Hate Me.
6—DT Ellis Wyms of the Bandits had a very strong year. We are honestly surprised tha the Bandits have not found a way to resign him, but now that he is a free agent, the interest is definitely there.
5—WR James Thrash is only 32, so he has some years left in him. Life in Birmingham has not been easy, so finding a club with a quality QB is clearly a priority for the veteran receiver.
4—HB Kevin Faulk, one of the best 3rd down receiving backs in the league is still unsigned, though Houston continues to negotiate a return for another season with the Gamblers. Interest from at least 3 other teams is known, with Texas, New Jersey, and Charlotte all apparently interested in the veteran back.
3—WR Muhsin Muhammad has been a #1 receiver most of his career. That might not be a role he plays for his next team, but he will certainly improve any offense that lands him.
2—LB Michael Barrow is rumored to be considering retirement, but if the right team offers the former Knight a reason to stick around, he could be a very valuable addition.
1—DE Santana Dotson may be 36 years old, but he put up 17 sacks for a pretty bad Skyhawks defense, so he is still very much a player worth exploring.
NFL-USFL Transfer
We are 4 weeks out from the closure of the Fall USFL-NFL Transfer Window, and as usual we have seen something of a one-way flow of players as the NFL signed far more USFL veterans than vice versa. We have gotten used to the up-river/down-river flow of the two different transfer windows, understanding that the USFL will make its gains in February, when NFL contracts run out and the players are largely unsigned and hoping for competition from both leagues to increase their value. That is what happened with the USFL free agents this past August, and the results, as expected, were that several quality players are jumping right into a fall season this month. Here are the signings that we think will have the biggest impact for the NFL and the biggest gaps to fill for the USFL.
The Birmingham Stallions let Jason Campbell walk, and he opted to walk all the way to LA and the NFL Raiders. The former Auburn product has opted to join the Raiders, who are hoping to have Campbell compete with 2007 draft pick JaMarcus Russell. It is a bit of an odd pairing, since in Russell and Campbell you have two of the bigger draft disappointments of the past few years, but the Raiders seem to believe they can use competition to inspire one or both to greater success.
Jacksonville may have ruined a good thing by playing lowball with wideout Donald Hayes. After rising to compete with Rashaun Woods as a 1-2 combo, Hayes was not happy with the offer from the Bulls and when a better offer from the Houston Oilers came along, he signed it, sending him to the NFL and leaving Jacksonville with a big hole in the lineup.
LB Al Wilson was a major force in the Renegade offense, but now it is a spot they will have to find an answer for as Wilson leaves Orlando for the Denver Broncos.
Another quality linebacker who has jumped leagues is former Mauler Dwayne Rudd. Rudd, who has also played in DC and New Jersey now escapes the northeast corridor by heading to the NFL Minnesota Vikings.
The secondary was a popular spot for NFL teams to go hunting, with CB James Trapp (POR) landing in Baltimore, Micheal Booker (BIR) in New York, safety Chad Cota going from Houston to the Dallas Cowboys, and FS Leomon Evans staying close to home, going from the Machine to the Bears in Chicago.
In addition to Booker’s departure, Birmingham saw starting center Chukki Okobi jump to the fall with the Pittsburgh Steelers, while New Jersey’s starter at the position, Jeremy Newberry signed a very lucrative 2-year deal to play in San Francisco. Guard Chris Villarial also found himself a hefty payday, leaving the USFL champion Panthers and signing with the Buffalo Bills.
One of the premier return men in the USFL is no longer playing in the spring, as Dante Hall, the “human joystick” departs the Maulers for the NFL Chiefs. Hall set several Mauler records in the return game, but never caught on as a receiver, something he is hoping is possible in the NFL.
Others jumping to the Fall season included DE Van Tuinei (LA), WR Freddie Solomon (TEX), HB Troy Davis (TEX), and kickers Matt Stover (NSH) and Jason Elam (BOS)
Coming to the USFL from the NFL was a short list of mostly backups and camp fodder, but there were a few names worth remembering. The players you may want to watch this year include:
OT Zach Strief, leaving the Saints to join the Atlanta Fire.
LB Angelo Crowell, coming to Baltimore from the Buffalo Bills
DE C. J. Mosley, leaving the NY Jets to join the Boston Cannons.
K Steven Haushka, joining the Cannons from Baltimore
DT Shaun Cody coming to Denver after several years with the Bengals
WR Hank Basket leaving the Eagles to sign with Oakland
CB Leigh Bodden, coming to Orlando from the Detroit Lions
G Chris Kemoeatu from the Steelers, joining the Dragons.
The QB Situation, all 28 Teams
With the initial frenzy of the first months of free agency and the first NFL-USFL transfer window completed, the search for quality QB options remains the top story in the league. You can basically divide teams between those that are set, and those that are scrambling. So, we thought we would do just that, with our look at the QB position. We created 3 categories: Golden (Nothing is needed), Solid (Starter is set, some room to improve depth), and Shaky (Starter is uncertain or unimpressive). We put all 28 teams into these categories, and will let you decide if we have it right as we look ahead to the draft and the second NFL-USFL window, the one where typically more NFL players jump ship and join the spring league than vice versa.
TEAMS THAT ARE GOLDEN
Houston: Matt Hasselbeck, who turned 31 this year, should be locked in for at least 2 more years. Behind him the Gamblers feel very good about Luke McCown and veteran Brock Huard as fill-in options. Hasselbeck may not be the biggest gunslinger in the league, but he is a solid option who rarely loses you games. The only question is if he can put the team on his back if he needs to.
Jacksonville: Another McCown shows up right away. Luke’s brother Josh sites behind veteran Jake Delhomme on the depth chart, giving Jacksonville a very solid 1-2 combo. They need a 3rd, but we expect that they will look at a late round developmental project or a low-cost free agent for that. Delhomme is up for a new deal after the 2010 season, so the Bulls will be hoping to get an extension done this year if they can.
Las Vegas: A month ago we would not have had Vegas here, but they now sit in a very good position, with a proven winner as the starter and pretty solid backup in Tony Banks. What a difference one good trade can make. The Thunder will want to think about bringing in a protégé within a couple of years, but for now they are feeling pretty good about their QB situation.
Memphis: It does not get more secure than having Favre as your QB. Not only is he one of the league’s best (all time) but he also never seems to get hurt. He had some issues with the NY Jets, but in the USFL he has not missed a start for the Showboats (and Stallions) since 1993, a ridiculous run for any pro football player, much less a QB. Behind him is Mike McMahan, but does it really matter?
Michigan: There is no question that Brian Griese is the man for the Panthers after delivering them a league title this year. Behind him, the Panthers are hoping to develop Drew Stanton and are happy with Shaun Hill as the #3.
New Orleans: Eli Manning has taken a lot of flack, but the issues in New Orleans can no longer be attributed to their QB. Manning put up outstanding numbers this year, throwing 21 TDs to only 9 picks and gaining over 3,500 yards. His leadership was also on display as he led the Breakers on their late season run and into the playoffs. Behind him you have NFL vet Tim Rattay and 2nd year developmental player Mike Flynn.
Oakland: The Invaders are well aware that Joey Harrington is never going to be a league leader statistically, but their offense is also not designed for that. He is a quality QB who can do very well on a balanced offense, as this year’s 13-3 record proved. There is no sense out of the Bay Area that QB is a position of interest this summer. They have Ingle Martin at the #2 and are liking what they see from rookie signing Bob Volek last year.
Ohio: You have a 3-time MVP as your starter and Chris Redman is generally considered one of the best #2’s in the league, so Ohio is just not going to focus on the position at all. They need a #3 but will have no trouble finding a castoff from either the current Free Agent pool or the post NFL season cuts.
Orlando: The Renegades made their big move two years ago, snagging Drew Brees, so they feel they are set. Honestly, with both Matt Cassel and Matt Moore behind Brees, they are more likely to be a seller than a buyer in a QB trade market. We could see Cassel as a commodity in an offseason that has so many teams hoping for help at the position.
Philadelphia: Kurt Warner missed a couple of games, and we got to see that Matt Gutierrez is also a pretty solid backup. Jeff Smoker is the #3, and that is a bit of a luxury for the Stars. They are feeling pretty good, and hope to get a deal done with Warner well before his contract expires at the end of 2009.
Portland: Hard to believe an expansion club is happy with their QB situation, but NFL import A. J. Feeley had a really good first year in the Rose City. He only threw for 2,800 yards, but he showed a lot of poise behind a shaky offensive line and with a cobbled-together offense. We expect he will look even better in 2009, with one more year of team-building around him. Behind Feeley are veteran backup Ken Dorsey and CFL import Dennis Dixon.
Seattle: The only QB question in Seattle is if the Dragons are happy with 9-year benchwarmer Tee Martin as their #2. Last year’s late round rookie Alex Brink is also on the roster, but we could see the Dragons try to upgrade if they can do so cheaply. But, for now, it is more a signing of opportunity and not a strategic priority for the Dragons.
Tampa Bay: Daunte Culpepper extended his deal with the Bandits through 2012, so they are feeling really good about their QB situation. The fact that when Culpepper missed 2 games Brad Gradkowski was able to keep the Bandits on pace for their surprising 14-2 record has them feeling like the QB position is in very good hands right now. They need a 3rd, but that will almost certainly be a late Free Agent signing when the discounts start.
Texas: Joe Flacco’s year started out rough, but he showed real growth in year one. Texas has to be happy about that, and about his 16:6 TD:INT ratio. Behind Flacco, the Outlaws have Dan Orlovsky under contract, but we expect them to look for a free agent #2, perhaps a sage veteran like a Jeff Garcia or Jeff Lewis (both rumored to be leaving LA).
TEAMS THAT ARE SOLID, BUT COULD IMPROVE DEPTH
Baltimore: With the retirement of Alex Van Pelt, there is a need for a solid backup behind Big Ben. Caleb Hanie has not shown enough to lock up that position.
Boston: The Cannons are still hoping that Drew Bledsoe will give it one more try. If he does, then they move up to Golden with both Bledsoe and McPherson available. If not, then McPherson is likely the starter in 2009, and they could use a bit more depth behind him, perhaps a veteran who is willing to hold a clipboard and mentor McPherson a bit.
Chicago: We wanted to put Chicago into the Golden list, and if we were confident that they were holding on to Kyle Orton we would, but rumors have them shopping Orton around, hoping to get maximum value for him after his strong late season and post-season performance, and that makes us nervous about who would be #2 behind Brady Quinn if Orton leaves.
Denver: The injury to Matt Leinart and the collapse of the Denver offense without him showed us just how fragile the QB situation is in Denver. They need to be thinking about a solid option at #2. Could they be in the market for Jason Campbell? Would that make sense? Dereck Anderson has shown some ability, but has had a hard time winning games, and we see Jordan Palmer as purely an emergency option.
Nashville: Jay Cutler is still their #1, but there is an uneasiness about Cutler. Fans seems concerned, and the offense certainly did not look particularly smooth this year. We think the Knights are happy to play a long strategy here and help Cutler grow, but if he falters, do they have someone who can step in? Quincy Carter is their #2, which is not the worst option, but he is more of a #2 than a guy who can displace a struggling Cutler. Will Nashville invest in a potential competitor for their starter in his 4th year?
Washington: Kordell Stewart’s comeback season was one of the stories of the year. The 34-year old bounced back from his 2007 injury with one of his best seasons ever. The question for the Feds is who are they going to put behind him? Stewart is currently the only QB on the roster, and we know that they are not going to enter minicamps without a very solid option at backup QB.
TEAMS THAT ARE SHAKY OR ACTIVELY LOOKING FOR A NEW OPTION
Arizona: Now that Plummer is out of the picture, the question becomes, what is the picture? The Wranglers like 2nd year player Colt Brennan, but certainly not as a full-time starter, and Jim Sorgi is clearly not starting material. So, where do they look for their new QB? Recently hired OC Danny White may be the best QB on the roster right now.
Atlanta: We all know what Plan A is, draft and sign Matthew Stafford out of Georgia. Behind him they have Garrard, Thigpen, and veteran Kelly Holcombe, so if they can sign him, they are looking pretty good. If they cannot, then what?
Birmingham: The Stallions finally gave up on Jason Campbell. They experimented this year with CFL import Dave Dickenson and late round pick Anthony Wright, but neither seems a viable answer at starter. They fought hard for Plummer, but failed to land the All-USFL QB, so what is their best option? Do they go for a rookie? Take a shot on veteran Steve McNair (a local college product from Alcorn State) or look to the NFL for an option?
Charlotte: The Monarchs committed to Chris Weinke last year, but we are not sure that his 2,500 yard, 13 interception, and 84.7 QBR season is enough to ensure him of the starting gig. We don’t think 2nd year player John David Booty is likely to unseat him, but we are also not sure that Charlotte will not make a play for another option in their 2nd year.
Los Angeles: With Seneca Wallace coming back after a serious injury, and with both backups struggling when they played this past year, the Express cannot feel good about where they are sitting. And, of course, temptation is staring them in the face in the form of USC quarterback Mark Sanchez. Sanchez is in his final year with the Trojans, and will be available to the Express if they want to use a T-Draft pick on him. That could be a very popular move with locals to be sure, and provide LA with a pro-ready QB with a serious set of skills.
New Jersey: Both Kevin Kolb and Kris Kershaw are under contract for 2009 (Kolb’s contract year), but the front office certainly is not showing confidence in either one. They bid hard for Jake Plummer’s services, and we expect they will do more to try to bring in some competition for both. Could they end up with this combo as their 1-2 in 2009? Very possibly. There is no player in their T-Draft pool who is a sure fire USFL QB, only Rutgers’ Mike Teel, who is definitely a project, so that would mean hoping someone is available either in the open draft or in free agency. Would they sign McNair?
Pittsburgh: The Maulers dropped out of the Plummer race pretty early. Maybe the fan cries for Pat White out of West Virginia were heard and swayed leadership away from an expensive trade. Maybe they feel better about Cody Pickett than most others do. Pickett did throw for over 3,000 yards and had Pittsburgh in most games, but he just has not taken that next step to be a true franchise guy. So maybe you bring in the rookie, and then have a competition. Tyler Palko is the other QB on the roster, and he is a project right now.
St. Louis: The last of the Plummer contenders on our list. Jeff Blake put up some gaudy numbers as a rusher, but as a passer his 57.0 rating was the worst of any starter. Leading the league with a painful 22 picks is also not going to help you keep a starting gig. Coach Williams wants more out of the position, which explains the bid for Plummer. But now that they lost that contest, what is the option? Do they stick with Blake for 1 more year? Try out Ohio State product Troy Smith? Or, perhaps the most intriguing option, do they use a T-Draft pick on athletic K-State QB Josh Freeman? He is a really interesting prospect, but we are not sure he is ready for the leap to starter in the pros. Does Williams think otherwise?
Atlanta Looks to Build Offense with Ramsey
After interviewing no fewer than 5 candidates for their open head coaching position, the Atlanta Fire settled on former LA Express QB and offensive coordinator of the Pacific Division champion Oakland Invaders, Tom Ramsey. The position in Atlanta will be his first as a head coach after working his way up from QB Coach to OC. Ramsey will be tasked first and foremost with helping to evaluate options at QB, though it seems clear that Atlanta is making a serious push to woo Matthew Stafford from Georgia. So far, Stafford has been very noncommittal, which is easy to do during his final year in Athens, but come January the heat will certainly be turned up.
Ramsey inherits a team that has a solid foundation on defense and a 1,000 yard rusher in Darren McFadden. They could use some more talent at the receiver position, where Josh Reed leads a pretty middling group, but the clear issue for the Fire has been getting production either from David Garrard or Tyler Thigpen. If they cannot land Stafford, and that is very possible with NFL teams also salivating over the UGA Bulldog, then a Plan B will be needed and quickly. That is what Ramsey steps into.
Arizona adds Danny White as OC
When the Arizona Wranglers selected Jim Tomsula, DC from the Stars, to be their new head coach, the general consensus was that Tomsula would do fine in reconfiguring the Wrangler defense, but would need significant help to create an offense, one without Jake Plummer at the helm. The position of offensive coordinator was seen as a key hire, and in mid-September we found out who the Wranglers and Tomsula had tabbed for that role, former Dallas Cowboy QB. White, himself an Arizona State graduate, has worked with the Sun Devils, the NFL Cowboys, and the CFL BC Lions over the past decade, moving from position coach to coordinator, and one rough year back in 1999 as the interim head coach in BC. He is considered partially responsible for the success of Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo the past 3 seasons in Arlington, but now returns to his roots in Tempe (Well, Glendale) and will help the Wranglers settle on a QB for the 2009 season, and design an offense that can maximize the talents of Santana Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, and HB Sedrick Irvin. He has some tools to work with, but will be essentially reinventing the offense after a truly dismal year for the Wranglers.
Birmingham to Stand Pat For Now
The Birmingham Stallions, under the leadership of GM and President of Football Operations Les Snead, are opting to play the long game as they look for their next head coach. We have seen several teams do this over the past 10 years, essentially using the current fall NFL season to scout position coaches, coordinators, or even head coaches who may be having issue with their current clubs. Now 10 weeks into the offseason for the Stallions, it seems clear that they are going to employ that strategy, having determine that a hire from within the USFL ranks is not what they are looking for.
We have no insight into who, if anyone, Birmingham has their eyes on within the NFL, but, as each year we typically see 4-5 head coaches, and most of their coordinators let go, and as it is possible in the Winter Transfer Window for USFL teams to talk to NFL coaches who are under contract, it is entirely possible that Birmingham has a short list that they are monitoring, and will reach out in early February to see if they can land the NFL coach who most impressed them.
While all mock drafts are something of a crapshoot, trying to predict the USFL draft is significantly complicated by the existence of the Territorial Draft. It is so common for teams to protect and claim exclusivity on top talent, that we often see the Open Draft’s first round filled with talent that in the NFL draft would not be on the board until the 3rd round. Just looking at the Top 10 prospects in this year’s draft, there are easily 9 who could be off the board if the clubs that have exclusive rights to players from their school opt to protect them.
But here is the thing, competition with the NFL has also created an entire framework in which teams often do not protect or claim the clear #1 talent from their pool, afraid that the NFL will outbid them, but will, instead, focus on midrange players who are more likely to sign on with the USFL even before the NFL draft has occurred. The other factor we see is that very often the most talented player in a team’s pool is in a position where there is no gap or need for that team. For example, while JaMarcus Russell was a highly coveted talent out of LSU, the Breakers were committed to Eli Manning at QB, so they did not use one of their three T-Draft picks on the top QB, allowing him to go to another team in the Open Draft. This happens all the time in the USFL T-Draft.
So, how do we do a mock Open Draft if we don’t know who will be claimed in the T-Draft. We can’t? So, with our 2009 Mock Draft, we imagine a world where no T-Draft exists, just as a way to gauge talent and see who could be a big add for the league if they sign with the USFL. We know up front that many of the players we name will not be with their teams. If and when it is possible, we will try to place players with teams that are likely to sign them in the T-Draft, if it is a foregone conclusion, but when there is not a clear consensus, we will go based on team need.
Arizona Wranglers
NEEDS: QB, DE, DT, TE
BEST FIT: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC—The Wranglers are certainly hoping that LA passes on a QB in the draft, freeing up the Trojan signal caller to become the first highly anticipated Wrangler QB since Jake Plummer came across town from the Sun Devils.
OTHER OPTIONS: There is a very real shot LA does not go after Sanchez, but if they do, the best option here might be a DE like LSU’s Tyson Jackson or Northern Illinois’s Larry English.
New Jersey Generals
NEEDS: QB, G, DT, LB
BEST FIT: Assuming Sanchez and Stafford are gone, the QB position is likely out, so we look at LB and that would be Aaron Curry of Wake Forest. Still a bit of a longshot, since Washington seems very interested in him as a T-Draft pick, but if he is here, he is a solid pick.
OTHER OPTIONS: Others who would fit the bill and are likely to be here are BC defensive tackle B.J. Raji and Mizzou DT Ziggy Hood.
Birmingham Stallions
NEEDS: QB, LB, WR, G, DE
BEST FIT: Another QB-needy team unlikely to find one worth the #3 pick after the T-Draft is done. They too look to another need area. That could be Curry, or it could be a speedster like WR Darrius Heyward-Bay. Baltimore should not be looking at wideout as a top position of need, so the Maryland product could be here for the Stallions.
OTHER OPTIONS: We think Heyward-Bay is very possible, and if not, then Jeremy Maclin out of Mizzou could be a good 2nd option.
St. Louis Skyhawks
NEEDS: QB, DT, SS, CB, DE
BEST FIT: The QB quest continues. St. Louis could select their QB in the T-Draft, K-State’s Josh Freeman, so that would leave them open here to go for defense. We like CB Malcolm Jenkins from Ohio State as a great fit for the needs St. Louis has, especially after Tyrone Poole retired.
OTHER OPTIONS: If not Jenkins (a possible pick by Ohio in the T-Draft), then either DE Tyson Jackson, DT B. J. Raji, or CB Vontae Davis of Illinois would be good options.
Atlanta Fire
NEEDS: QB, LB, OT, HB
BEST FIT: We all know the Fire are going for Matthew Stafford, the strong-armed QB out of Georgia. So, in a world without a T-Draft, he would be out of reach at #5, so Atlanta would have to move up to get him. But, he is theirs if they can sign him.
OTHER OPTIONS: Assuming Stafford is gone in the T-Draft, that makes offensive tackle a new focal point for the Fire. How about either Jason Smith from Baylor or Eugene Monroe from Uva?
Texas Outlaws
NEEDS: WR, DE, FS, OT, G, TE
BEST FIT: Hey, look, a team not trying to find a QB. Amazing. So, what do they need? A lot, but a good place to start would be the defense. There are not really any safeties we would put in the Top 12 picks, so DE once again is a coveted position. If Jackson and English are gone, Robert Ayers of Tennessee would be a solid pick.
OTHER OPTIONS: If DE is also off the table by pick 6, the Outlaws could go wideout. For their offense, the best option there would be Michael Crabtree, who they can pick up in the T-Draft if they want, otherwise perhaps Hakeem Nicks of UNC.
Los Angeles Express
NEEDS: C. DE, LB, HB, QB, K
BEST FIT: If LA wants to go for a QB, they have Sanchez who they can protect. If not, then they will almost certainly focus on the LB group of Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, and Rey Maualaga. They cannot sign everyone in the T-Draft, but maybe they pick up yet one more Trojan in the open draft.
OTHER OPTIONS: Center is another key area for the Express, so a sleeper choice could be Alex Mack of Cal.
Nashville Knights
NEEDS: DT, LB, OT, WR, K
BEST FIT: One of the USC linebackers, if LA cannot take them all, would be a perfect fit, particularly a big run stuffer like Maualaga or Matthews.
OTHER OPTIONS: If the Trojan LB’s are not an option, than perhaps Aaron Maybin from Penn State, who is more of a pass rusher, or James Laurinaitis from OSU, a more traditional thumper.
ORLANDO RENEGADES
NEEDS: HB, FS, CB, OT, DT
BEST FIT: We are entering the phase of the draft where QB is no longer a top priority. For the Renegades, even with their trade for Cedric Benson, HB might be a priority. They could have a legitimate shot at either Georgia’s Knowshon Moreno or UConn’s Donald Brown.
OTHER OPTIONS: If the ‘Gades hold off on RB after the Benson trade, they could look for a DB, and so Malcolm Jenkins or Vontae Davis could be the pick.
CHARLOTTE MONARCHS
NEEDS: CB, LB, DE, TE, DT
BEST FIT: Brandon Pettigrew, the dual use TE out of OK State is unprotected by any team in the T-Draft and would be a great outlet for Weinke.
OTHER OPTIONS: If 1st round is too early for a TE, then we would say that the list of CBs and LBs we have already noted would be on the radar of the Monarchs.
PITTSBURGH MAULERS
NEEDS: LB, G, QB, K
BEST FIT: The Maulers could be in the market for a mid-range QB like a Josh Freeman, but Pat White is in their T-Draft, so that may take QB off the table before the open draft.
OTHER OPTIONS: We would love to see USC’s Matt Cushing in Pittsburgh, but we think LA is going to want first crack at him.
PORTLAND STAGS
NEEDS: C, CB, OT, LB
BEST FIT: Improving the line for A. J. Feeley has to be a priority, especially with Korey Stringer’s retirement as the LT. IF they can get Jason Smith from Baylor, they will be overjoyed.
OTHER OPTIONS: If Smith is gone, they still could look at Andre Smith (Alabama) or Eugene Monroe (Virginia) and come away fine. At least one of the three will be here at #12.
OHIO GLORY
NEEDS: OT, LB, DT, TE
BEST FIT: Ohio could go a lot of directions, but we suspect that line help will be a top priority. We just listed the top 3 tackles, so one of them would be a good fit.
OTHER OPTIONS: If OT is not what they most need, the Glory could be the one to jump on Pettigrew at TE, or they could go for some D-line help.
BOSTON CANNONS
NEEDS: G, C, FS, DE, K
BEST FIT: Center Alex Mack (Cal) or Louisville’s Eric Wood would both be solid options for a Cannon club that wants to get more athletic on their interior.
OTHER OPTIONS: IF they don’t go O-line, then perhaps safety Louis Delmas or Patrick Chung would be a good fit here.
JACKSONVILLE BULLS
NEEDS: OT, WR, DE, FS
BEST FIT: We would love to see a speedy slot receiver here, perhaps Florida’s Percy Harvin (T-Draft) or Jeremy Maclin from Mizzou.
OTHER OPTIONS: A possible sleeper here would be DT Peria Jerry from Ole Miss, a big-bodied run stuffer.
LAS VEGAS THUNDER
NEEDS: DT, CB, C, HB, DE
BEST FIT: The Thunder solved their QB problem, but now have no 1st round pick, so they will need to wait until Round 2 to solve any other issues. A good round 2 option for them may be CB Darius Butler from UConn.
OTHER OPTIONS: If Coach Glanville prefers an edge rusher, Everette Browne of FSU might be on the board still in the 2nd round.
NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS
NEEDS: DT, WR, C, LB, CB, SS
BEST FIT: We could see Hakeem Nicks or Rutgers WR Kenny Britt in this slot if neither are taken in the T-Draft.
OTHER OPTIONS: How about CB Alphonso Smith of Wake Forest here?
DENVER GOLD
NEEDS: TE, HB, G, K, DT
BEST FIT: Having traded away Cedric Benson means that Denver could use a bigger back to pair with Mewelde Moore. How about Ohio State’s Beanie Wells? Is he big enough for you?
OTHER OPTIONS: If Wells is not available, a good alternative could be Shonn Greene from Iowa.
BALTIMORE BLITZ
NEEDS: LB, FB, WR, G
BEST FIT: We really think Baltimore will want to add more linebacker speed this offseason. We could see a Clay Matthews here, or perhaps Aaron Maybin, but our favorite for the Blitz is Wisconsin’s DeAndre Levy.
OTHER OPTIONS: We really see Baltimore going LB, but if not, they could jump on a receiver like Georgia’s Muhamed Massoquoi or OSU’s Brian Robiskie.
HOUSTON GAMBLERS
NEEDS: HB, CB, DE, SS, DT
BEST FIT: If Faulk is gone, which could very well be the case, then Houston needs a receiving HB. Of the 1st round options, Donald Brown (UConn), but the better option would have to be Pitt’s LeSean McCoy, a very good receiver out of the backfield.
OTHER OPTIONS: If Faulk does sign, then Houston could switch to a defensive focus, which would mean a CB like Troy’s Sherrod Martin or UConn’s Darius Butler.
SEATTLE DRAGONS
NEEDS: OT, G, LB, C, DT
BEST FIT: It’s all about getting O-line help, and really they can go Best Player Available at the three different line slots. Andre Smith, Eugene Monroe, Alex Mack, or Eric Wood would all be a good signing for the Dragons.
OTHER OPTIONS: If not O-line, then perhaps linebacker. Laurinaitis or Maualuga would be ideal, but could be gone, so we would also recommend they look at Clint Sintim from Uva.
WASHINGTON FEDERALS
NEEDS: TE, LB, SS, OT, G
BEST FIT: If Pettigrew is gone by pick 22, then the next best TE option is likely Richard Quinn of UNC, but not in the 1st round.
OTHER OPTIONS: If not TE, then more linebacker action is likely. We have not mentioned Western Illinois’s Jason Williams yet. He would be a good value here.
PHILADELPHIA STARS
NEEDS: LB, WR, C, OT, G
BEST FIT: Eric Wood is a great fit here, but Philly would also like to look at Alabama’s Antoine Caldwell at the center position.
OTHER OPTIONS: If one of the LB’s drops this far, we could see Philly try to snag that position first.
CHICAGO MACHINE
NEEDS: OT, FS, LB, HB, TE
BEST FIT: Chicago likes to blitz, so if they can get an Aaron Maybin, they might pull that trigger.
OTHER OPTIONS: LB is not the most needed position. That would be LT, so moving up to try to draft Andrew Smith or Eugene Monroe is not out of the question.
OAKLAND INVADERS
NEEDS: WR, TE, G, DT, LB
BEST FIT: They would love to get a shot at Michael Crabtree or Darrius Heyward-Bey, but at pick 23, that seems unlikely.
OTHER OPTIONS: Kenny Britt or Brian Robiskie may be more likely for the Invaders.
TAMPA BAY BANDITS
NEEDS: LB, SS, TE, QB
BEST FIT: Jason Williams or DeAndre Levy would be good signings at this lower position.
OTHER OPTIONS: If LB is too tough, we think that safety Rashad Johnson from Alabama could be here for the Bandits.
MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS
NEEDS: LB, HB, OT, CB, FS
BEST FIT: Memphis has no urgent needs, so they could opt to drop into the 2nd round and get a few more picks. If they pick here, we expect it will be at linebacker.
OTHER OPTIONS: If the linebacker group that is available does not attract them, we could see the Showboats focus on the secondary and a cornerback like Ohio State’s Donald Washington.
MICHIGAN PANTHERS
NEEDS: SS, G, CB, OT
BEST FIT: The Panthers are picking last because they already have a pretty solid roster. They likely will focus on the safety position, but would be lucky indeed if William Moore (Mizzou) or Darcel McBath (Texas Tech) dropped to them here.
OTHER OPTIONS: We like the safety here, as a position likely to drop a bit in the draft.
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