Eight teams vying for four spots in the Conference Championships, one step away from Summer Bowl 2008. We overpredicted upsets last week, and underpredicted them this week with 2 of 4 visitors pulling out wins on the road. Memphis showed the form that got them a title last year, while Oakland put an end to Seattle’s hot streak. Michigan showed up strong in Chicago, and Washington did not have the answer for the top-seeded Bandits. Let’s get to it and then stop for a peak at where teams stand as we prepare for free agency. Some early trades are already shaking things up, and we will explore that too.
MEMPHIS 41 PHILADELPHIA 17
It was shock and awe for the defending champs as they exploded to a 24-14 halftime lead and then just kept building on it in the second half. Brett Favre threw for 3 touchdowns including a completely bizarre final score that saw Erron Kinney go 93 yards for a score, but despite the Favre heroics, once again it was the defense that made the most hay, with two pick sixes and 4 total interceptions against a very uncomfortable Kurt Warner. Tebucky Jones scored the first points of the game, returning a Warner miscue 61-yards for a score. Only 9 minutes later it was Wendell Davis returning another Warner pick for 54 yards. A true nightmare game for the Stars’ QB.
And while Brett Favre was pressured as well (6 sacks by the Stars), he did not make the mistakes that Warner did, going 15 of 20 for 331 yards and three scores. And Memphis showed depth in the receiving corps, with Ferguson and Evans leading in receptions but with scores from Sidney Rice, Pierre Garcon and Erron Kinney. The run game was also working for the Boats as Cadillac Williams and Maurice Smith combined for 130 yards in what was a blowout early and late.
Philadelphia did fight back from their 21-7 early deficit, pulling the halftime deficit to 24-14, and then 24-17 before Memphis went off again. In addition to the Kinney 93-yarder, the second half also featured a 55-yard toss from Favre to Rice for a score as the Showboats just kept piling it on. Fans in the Linc started leaving the stadium well before the final score was settled, and Coach Harbaugh had no answers in the post-game interview. “We could say we beat ourselves today with those early picks, but we fought back and then Memphis just beat us on their own” said a clearly frustrated Harbaugh. No excuses, indeed. This was just a beatdown by an inspired Memphis club.
MICHIGAN 21 CHICAGO 7
The Panthers and Machine know each other well enough to predict how they will attack each other, but that was not enough to keep Chicago in this game, one in which Michigan got two safeties and, for perhaps the first time ever, a punter was named game MVP. Panther punter Dustin Colquitt kicked for 454 yards on 10 punts, placing 7 within the 20 and two far enough in Chicago territory to make two safeties possible. For their part, the Machine simply looked out of sorts from the start. Kyle Orton did not have a great game, completing 19 of 35 for 221 but with 3 picks. Michael Turner was limited to 2.7 yards per carry on his way to a 57-yard day, and the Machine just could not win the field position game.
The game began with Michigan taking possession and getting out to the 45 before having to punt, and that is where Colquitt’s MVP game began. His first kick placed the ball at the Chicago 2-yard line, and on their first play from scrimmage turner got caught in an all-out blitz, and was stuffed in the endzone for a safety. Chicago would not get out of their own half in the entire quarter. Michigan also struggled to move the ball but Colquitt just kept pinning Chicago back.
After a Machine punt, Michigan got the ball at their own 49, and on their most successful drive of the day, went 51 yards and into the endzone with a Justin Fargas run. The Panthers would split carries between Fargas and Leon Washington, each getting 14 on the day, with Washington edging Fargas 49 yards to 42. They would add a second touchdown to open the third, moving to a 16-0 lead just minutes after a Kyle Orton pick gave Michigan the ball inside the 30. Leon Washington got the 6, and the Panthers enjoyed significant lead on a Machine club that just could not sustain drives.
A field goal put Michigan up 3 scores at 19-0. Chicago would finally score with 1:46 left in the game to make it 19-7, but despite picking up the onside kick, Chicago started moving backwards with two consecutive penalties pushing them back to their own 17. And, almost as if symbolic of the game as a whole, the shotgun snap got away from Orton, who had to scramble to fall on the ball, but scrambled into the end zone, providing Michigan with their second safety of the day and a final score of 21-7.
Chicago had a great season, but they just did not have it together in this game and Michigan moves on. They now would turn to rooting for Seattle. A Dragon victory and the Panthers would get to host a Conference Championship for the first time since their 1986 championship year, an Oakland victory and Michigan would again be on the road.
WASHINGTON 17 TAMPA BAY 38
A Huge third quarter and a defensive adjustment at halftime gives the win going away to the Bandits, as they outscore Washington 21-0 in the second half to pull away and take the game and the chance to host the Eastern Conference Final next week.
It was a story of two very different halves as Washington and Tampa Bay battled to a 17-17 tie at the half, but the Bandits simply took over in the second half. The game began very much in Washington’s favor, with Kordell Stewart connecting on two early touchdown passes, the first to Eddie Kennison on their first possession and the second only 1:23 later, following an Ed Reed pick of Daunte Culpepper. Following the turnover, it took only 3 plays for Stewart to put Washington up 14-0 with a strike to Deion Branch.
But Tampa Bay was unphased, finishing the first quarter with a field goal and then getting their first TD drive 3 minutes later when Samari Rolle picked off Stewart and ran it back for yet another huge playoff pick-six. Washington would add a field goal, but momentum had swung. Tampa Bay finished off the first half with a precision drive that took them 64 yards in only 8 plays, the last a 6-yard strike from Culpepper to Chris Doering for the score.
We are not sure what Coach Spurrier said during halftime, but the results were immediately evident. Washington went 3-and-out on thee opening possession, one highlighted by a Jonathan Vilma sack on third and 4, and then Culpepper started a Tampa quarter that will not soon be forgotten. In only 4 plays he put Tampa Bay up, hitting Karl Williams with a 23-yard corner route that left the defender sprawled on the turf. Four plays later, the defense again stepped up, this time Samari Rolle again, his 2nd pick of the game, and only 5 plays later Culpepper hit Williams again, this time on a seam route that ended up going for 63 yards and a 14-point lead for the Bandits.
Down 14 and with the Bandit faithful in full voice, Stewart again tried to inspire the Feds to get moving, but was picked off for the 3rd time in the game, this time a route over the middle where he did not see MLB Kevin Mitchell, producing a somewhat rare interception for the Bandits’ enforcer. Mitchell returned the ball to the 11, and once again in short order the Bandits scored again, this time LaBrandon Toefield taking the goalline run over the pile. Up by 21, the Bandits pinned their ears back and pressured Stewart for the entire 4th quarter. The single-minded pressure of one of the league’s top defenses produced two failed 4th down attempts and a fourth Stewart pick in the final period. Washington was thwarted at every turn and by the final Bandits’ possession the entire stadium was in celebration mode. The Bandits would return to the Conference Title Game, and would serve as hosts for next week’s clash with Brett Favre and the Showboats.
SEATTLE 14 OAKLAND 27
Despite the support of Panther fans along with their own fanbase, the Dragons could not keep their run going as the homestanding Invaders, very familiar with Seattle’s capabilities, found ways to limit the damage done by David Boston and Corey Dillon and to inflict their own damage.
Boston did score, giving Seattle an early 7-3 lead, but Oakland kept chipping at the Dragons, first with another field goal, then a beautiful screen play to Williams that allowed the big back to get up a head of steam and railroad his way to a 59-yard touchdown in the final minute of the half. Oakland took the lead with just 29 seconds in the half, and they would not give it up.
Williams would finish the day with 3 receptions for 71 yards and two Oakland touchdowns, while also contributing 90 yards on the ground to boost Oakland to the win. Joey Harrington would throw for 3 scores, including the two to his halfback and a third to slot receiver DeSean Jackson. Both the 2nd Williams TD and the Jackson TD came at the start of the 4th quarter after a scoreless 3rd. Oakland had found a way to keep Seattle off the board for 2+ quarters, holding them to only 5 of 13 on third down. Having built up a 27-7 lead, they eventually gave up another score, a Nate Burleson TD, but with only 18 seconds left in the game and still down 13, the game was essentially over. Seattle tried the online kick, but Oakland recovered and Joey Harrington took a knee to the delight of over 44,000 in Oakland.
The Invaders would now host the Panthers in next week’s Conference Title Game, their first appearance in the game since their 1991 league title. Coach Dennis Green celebrated with his players in the locker room after the game, but insisted that the ride is not over yet, that there were still more games to play, a reminder that only produced more cheers for the players in sky blue and yellow.
Experience or Exuberance?
With Oakland and Michigan making their way back to a title game for the first time in years (if not decades for Oakland), Tampa Bay back again and Memphis looking to repeat as champions we have a mix of experienced leaders and youthful upstarts. Whether it is past championship QB’s like Daunte Culpepper and Brett Favre, or players who have never gotten quite this far like Brian Griese and Joey Harrington, there is a clear difference between the feeling of the Eastern and Western Conference Finals. The East feels like a heavyweight fight, with the defending champs taking on a 14-2 Bandit squad that sports the league’s best defense. In the West, it feels almost like the young turks who are leading a revolution. Sure, Dennis Green and Dick LeBeau are hardly young revolutionaries, but neither Michigan nor Oakland has reached this stage of the playoffs in a long time.
Oakland’s last appearance in a title game was their 1993 USFL Championship, 15 years ago. Michigan was appeared in their last Conference Title game 4 years later in 1997, losing to Portland after a solid 11-5 season. Compare that to Memphis, who are, of course, the returning league champion and are hoping to get Brett Favre his third ring. Or to Tampa Bay, who were in the Conference title game only 3 years ago, when they lost to Chicago in the 2005 game, with Culpepper on the helm there as well. It is a study in contrasts across the board, and within each game as each club brings their own strengths to the table. Tampa Bay will rely heavily on their defense, Memphis on the passing of Brett Favre, Oakland on the 1-2 punch of Williams and Norwood, and Michigan on one of the deepest receiver corps in the league. While nearly every fan in America has their reasons for favoring one team or another to go all the way, what we have here is a final four that provides us with all the debates and arguments that make playoff football so engaging. A good final four for a good season around the USFL.
Birmingham Goes with GM from NFL Falcons
The Stallions appear to be going about their process of building a new staff a bit slower than some of the other teams, but we do have news as it appears that they have come to a decision about their open GM position. Birmingham is reportedly in final negotiations with Les Snead, who has served as a lead scout with both the NFL Jaguars and Falcons to be the new GM of the Stallions. The selection of Snead may seem to point to a strategy that will emphasize the draft, as Snead has far more experience with college scouting than free agency, though he has certainly been engaged in both. Snead is expected to sign on with the Stallions in the next week and then get to work quickly on developing a free agent, draft and NFL transfer strategy for the club, along with assisting the team president with the head coaching vacancy.
New Jersey Adds GM After Hiring Coach
The Generals went a different way, choosing their head coach first in former Jets’ Head Coach Herm Edwards, and then landing a GM to help him build a roster to match his preferred schemes. That GM has been named and it is former agent, turned GM in Jacksonville and Detroit of the NFL, Michael Huyghue. Huyghue helped to develop the Jaguars from expansion to their early NFL playoff run, and the Generals are hoping a rapid talent boost and rise back to prominence is in the cards with their club as well. Huyghue will be working with Herm Edwards to develop an offseason strategy, one which almost certainly will center on improving the worst-rated USFL offense from this past season.
Trading block Officially Open
After last week’s deal between Las Vegas and Birmingham primed the pump, we have started to see the trading block pick up speed. With a lot of teams looking at a lot of areas for improvement, it is not surprising that we are seeing trades even before the Free Agency period begins. These will likely tail off during free agency until early December, when the pre-draft trading tends to pick up, but, for fans hoping their teams can grab some needed talent in key positions, an early offseason trade can be just the thing to provide hope for the next season. Here are the trades enacted this week which could do just that:
Texas, which lost Ike Hilliard to retirement and may also see Muhsin Muhammad go the same route, if not departing as a free agent, needs to rebuild its receiver group. They reached out to Charlotte and made a deal to bring Brandon Marshall to the Outlaws, sending the Monarchs DT Cory Redding and a 6th round pick to bring in the tall UCF product. Texas will be Marshall’s 3rd team in 3 years after moving from Orlando to Charlotte in the expansion draft. He had 49 receptions for 568 yards in his one season with the Monarchs. Cory Redding has been with Texas since 2003, started 7 games as a rookie, but has only started 2 more since then.
Another receiver changes hands as Boston hopes to replace C Bubba Miller, who announced his retirement after Week 16. The Cannons acquire Jacksonville center Dominic Raiola, who started 15 games for the Bulls, but rotated with Nick Hardwick in most games. Hardwick was seen as the better blocker and so Raiola became expendable, for the right price. That price was a wideout to help Jacksonville replace Donald Hayes, who was unhappy in the #2 position behind Rashaun Woods, and wants a chance to be a #1 option. He waved off contract offers from the Bulls and is now in the free agency pool. So, the Bulls trade away Raiola to bring in Jerricho Cotchery. Cotchery, who played 5 seasons in Boston, has seen his numbers increase each year, with 81 targets, 32 catches and 477 yards in 2008, all career highs. In Boston, Cotchery primarily played in the slot, and he may occupy that position in Jacksonville as well, as the Bulls are also expected to look to the T-Draft and two very promising prospects in Florida’s Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy, as options at #2.
Finally, with the club having to make some cap room, Orlando felt it had no choice but to part with a significant contributor in LB Robb Morris. Morris, a 9-year veteran of the Renegades, was scheduled to make just under $3M in 2009, thanks to a backloaded contract, one the Renegades could not support. They sent him to Birmingham, who is flush with cap space, in exchange for two 3rd round picks this year, including Orlando’s, which had been traded to the Stallions in a deal last year. Orlando may continue to work on increasing their cap space now that they have some extra picks, while Birmingham is clearly focused on adding talent to a roster that was just not very good this past year.
We should have two championship games largely absent major injuries after a pretty clean Divisional Week. Michigan is hoping to get backup QB Drew Stanton back this week but is still doubtful about linebacker Shawn Merriman. For Oakland, the only name on the injury list was WR DeSean Jackson, but, as we saw with this week’s TD catch, he is clearly fit enough to see game action.
In the Eastern title game, Memphis looks to be without guard Dan Santucci, which could be an issue, while Zeke Moreno and Quintin Glover are bot expected to miss the game for Tampa Bay.
NBC Seeks to Add to Their Deal, Working for a Deal with Fox
Word this week that NBC is hoping to expand their NFL footprint and is in negotiations with FOX to buy out a portion of their contract with the league. NBC, in a contract set up back when the league had 24 clubs, owns the rights to a Friday Night showcase game, and while that game has largely been successful for the network, they apparently are hoping to get into the weekend schedule in a more expansive way. Fox has the rights to a rotation of 6 to 7 games each week on Saturday and Sunday afternoons, alternating heavier and lighter weeks with NBC. However, since both the FOX and ABC contracts are not up for renewal for another two years, NBC cannot work directly with the league if it wishes to expand its profile, they must strike a deal with one of the two day-game providers and that appears to be with FOX.
Sources within the industry seem to point to Saturday afternoon as a target for NBC, hoping to get a foothold on more afternoon programming. Their broadcasts of a range of spring sports has simply not competed well, with the exception of the Olympic Games. Whether FOX is open to selling off some of its top rated weekend coverage is unknown, but considering the amount of revenue, and the potential growth in revenue over the next several years, it seems unlikely that the network would be willing to give up a significant portion of its share of USFL coverage. The more likely scenario is that NBC will have to wait for the next round of contract extension negotiations to make a move, a move that would be seen as somewhat hostile, but a move that would almost certainly increase the value of the television deals, benefitting the league at the expense of one or more networks. To date, no discussion with ABC/ESPN about their large package of Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evening showcase games has been discussed. NBC had approached the league about a potential Monday Night game, but the league is apparently both leery of “imitating” a longstanding NFL tradition and of the required renegotiation with FOX as well as ABC/ESPN which shifting a game to Monday would require.
Top 10 Draft Prospects: Territorial Draft
While many USFL fans across the country are keyed into the ongoing playoffs, for 20 fanbases (now perhaps 24 with this week’s results) the focus has already turned to the offseason and the hope that their club can make some additions to improve the roster and their chances in 2009. This week and next we will be taking a look at the upcoming draft class of 2009, determining the best players available in both the protected Territorial Draft and the Open Draft. We start with the T-Draft, where all 28 teams can lock in their favorite three players from their pool of three protected schools. In most cases these are schools within close proximity of a team, with a few notable exceptions (Oklahoma being protected by the New Jersey Generals, for example).
The idea, from the early years of the USFL, was to create interest by giving teams a better chance at signing players who were popular locally and thus build a fanbase among local college supporters. It is a strategy that has largely been successful, but one which many have said favors certain teams, such as those with SEC or Big 10 affliations, over those that are in regions with fewer major players in college football. With 28 USFL franchises, each with 3 schools to choose from, the T-Draft means that a majority of players in each year’s draft tend to be within protected schools, but with only 3 picks per year, teams have to be very judicious, often looking at what would be mid-range talent, talent more likely to sign before the NFL Draft, with only the occasional top rated pick, often a high priority pick like a quarterback, halfback or defensive end, being protected.
Today we start our pre-draft previews by looking at the most likely high value targets, the potential 1st and 2nd rounders in an open draft who may not be there thanks to the T-Draft’s early selections and even signings. Next week we will look at those players not coming out of schools on the T-Draft list, but we begin with the best potentially protected players:
10) HB LeSean McCoy (Pitt): This Pitt Panther has the potential to be a 3-down back in the USFL, with great hands and ball skills as well as great elusivity. The Maulers however have a quality back in DeSean Foster, so they may not feel the need to protect and sign McCoy.
9) DE Connor Barwin (Cincinnati): An explosive and shifty edge rusher who could interest the Ohio Glory. We all know that Ohio tends to run deep into the Ohio State U. pool of players, but a talent like Barwin’s could cause them to use one of their picks elsewhere.
8) QB Pat White (WVU): Another potential target of the Pittsburgh Maulers. White has put up huge numbers for the Mountaineers but some worry about whether his game translates into the pros. For the Maulers, White could be seen as a Plan B if they find themselves out of the Jake Plummer sweepstakes.
7) S Patrick Chung (Oregon): The Stags surprised many by going 7-9 this year, and their defense was solid, but Chung could be a nice addition to a secondary that did have its struggles. It is not a primary position of need, however, so that could cause Portland to look elsewhere.
6) WR Hakeem Nicks (UNC): As with Portland, Charlotte has several areas of need, and wideout is not top on that list, but from their pool of NC schools, Nicks may be the prospect with the greatest upside.
5) LB Clay Matthews (USC): LA has a lot of talent to choose from in this year’s draft, and that is just looking at USC and UCLA linebackers. We like Matthews as the best of the bunch and suspect the Express do too.
4) WR Jeremy Maclin (Mizzou): St. Louis often complains that their pool of regional schools is one of the weaker ones, but the recent success of Mizzou means that they are seeing better talent, and finding a receiver to line up opposite Taylor Jacobs could make Maclin an obvious choice.
3) QB Josh Freeman (Kansas St): Back to St. Louis, like we said, more talent this year than most. If Coach Williams is not happy with Jeff Blake (led the league in interceptions), then he likely will take a long look at Freeman even as he and the team bid on Jake Plummer.
2) QB Mark Sanchez (USC): Quarterback is usually where we see teams try to corner the market on a guy they love, and with the Express QB situation in a lot of flux, taking a run at Sanchez seems a logical choice for Coach Jackson and LA.
1) QB Matthew Stafford (Georgia): You knew we would be putting Stafford here. The Atlanta Fire have hardly been subtle in their pursuit of the Georgia QB. Expect him to be their first pick and their priority, problem is the NFL also has Stafford as a top pick, and he can easily opt to play the market to maximize his payout.
Two very different Conference finals next week with the East featuring the defending champions against the team with the best record in the league while in the west we have two clubs who have not been here for quite a while facing off. Two teams will advance, two will fall short. Here is our look at who we think finds their way to Jacksonville and Summer Bowl 2008.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
Sunday, July 13 @ 1pm EDT
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Another classic Offense v. Defense showdown, with the Bandits in the unfamiliar position of representing the defense. Last time we saw the Bandits vying for a Summer Bowl it was all about Culpepper to Moss, McGahee and Shockey. This time it is all about takeaways and third down stops. Tampa Bay boasts the #1 scoring defense, allowing barely 14 points a game, largely due to their ability to either cut opposition drives short or force turnovers. They will face a team that can put points on the board in bunches. Memphis,led by Brett Favre, averaged nearly 26 points a game, good enough for 2nd in the league. They do it mostly through the air, where their deep receiver group of Robert Ferguson, Lee Evans, Sidney Rice, David Martin, and rookie Pierre Garçon can overwhelm defenses. They can run the ball too, though Cadillac Williams’s 1,049 yards are often undervalued. So, who wins out?
There is one factor which is making us lean towards Tampa Bay in this game, and that is the ballhawking defense. If there is one downside to Brett Favre’s game, it is that he often tries to force balls into impossible spaces, trusting his arm to beat even flawless coverage. That can lead to some bad choices and some game-impacting interceptions. You do that against this Tampa Bay team and they will make you pay.
OUR PICK: We see Tampa forcing at least one nasty error out of Favre and capitalizing on it to edge the Showboats and return to the USFL Championship for the first time since 1998. Bandits 28-24
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
Sunday, July 13 @ 5pm EDT
Oakland-Alameda Coliseum, Oakland, CA
In the Western Final we have two teams that many did not expect to make it this far, despite very solid seasons. With all the hoopla about the Seattle Dragons and the Chicago Machine, it almost feels like Oakland and Michigan flew under the radar most of the year, which is crazy because these are two very balanced, very good teams. Oakland finished the year with a Top 10 offense (in both scoring and yardage) as well as a Top 10 defense. Michigan just missed the Top 10 in both, despite having one of the best rushing attacks and one of the better pass defenses in the league. So these are two very evenly matched, and very solid clubs.
Why do they not get the respect some others do? We think it might be the QBs. Joey Harrington is still seen as a restoration project after being unceremoniously let go by Orlando and spending time on the bench with Oakland. Brian Griese, despite an outstanding 2007 campaign, still gets treated by folks outside of Michigan as a game manager, a player who got the start for the Panthers only because Drew Brees jumped ship. And yet, despite the naysayers, it is Harrington and Griese in the Western Finals. The rest of the teams are also solid, and we may see both teams try to establish the run, which has worked for them both.
Both Michigan and Oakland use a platoon style, though Justin Fargas (1,197 yards) and Ricky Williams (1,411 yards) get the majority of the carries. Oakland likes to bring in Jerious Norwood to cap off drives in the red zone, evident in his league leading 12 touchdowns, while Michigan will often utilize Leon Washington in shotgun formations, or bring in Musa Smith from time to time. What that means is that both clubs can run the ball a lot without wearing down their lead backs, and we expect both will try to do just that.
The defenses are also pretty evenly matched, so this game could come down to turnovers and missed opportunities. Oakland has a slight edge here, sitting at a +3 turnover differential, while Michigan was slightly in the red at -2. What that tells us is that either team could be the beneficiary or the victim of turnovers. Michigan committed 24 this year, Oakland only 13, so while the Panther D is a bit more aggressive, the offense is also a bit more careless. That could, in a tight game, be an advantage to the Invaders.
OUR PICK: With two teams so evenly matched, we tend to lean on the home team to get an edge. So, we will trust in the Invaders to get 1-2 more big plays, possibly turnovers, to edge Michigan in this one. Invaders 21 Panthers 18.