A big weekend with a lot of games that influenced the standings, playoff seeds, and the final two Wild Card berths, and yet, by the end of the weekend, nothing changed. The same 12 teams in the same order took on seeds 1-6 in each conference. No sudden shuffling, no collapse or surprise ending, at least not this week. But, that is not to say there was not drama over the course of the weekend. There was plenty of that, as you will see with our scoreboard roundup.
WASHINGTON FEDERALS 34 BALTIMORE BLITZ 27
This was a very tough game to peg. Win or lose, both teams knew they would be facing off one week later in the Wild Card playoffs. The game would only decide which of the stadiums would host the game, RFK or M&T. Would both teams hold back, rest starters, or play all out to get that home field edge, an edge that is somewhat dulled because the two cities are so close to each other that you would have to expect a huge visitor contingent on hand no matter where the game was played.
So, what did we get? Well, apparently both clubs went all in. The starters played the entire game, the teams fought back and forth the entire game, and Baltimore almost pulled off a stunning 4th quarter comeback, but in the end, the Federals held the advantage and held on to retain the #4 seed and the ability to play the rematch next week in the District. How did they do this? With a ton of old school Kordell Stewart showing up. The Washington QB looked like a 22-year-old out there, running the ball 8 times, including 3 scoring runs, one a 69-yarder that had the stadium erupting and another a 49-yarder that was almost equally as dramatic. Opposite him was Ben Roethlisberger, staying in the pocket, extending plays, and connecting for 3 TD tosses as Baltimore would not go away.
After the two teams swapped field goals in their opening drives, Baltimore got the ball into the end zone first, scoring on a short pass from Big Ben to Marty Booker. Their lead would be short-lived as on the 2nd play of the next drive, Kordell Stewart faked out the entire Blitz defense, bootlegged left and had wide open field in front of him. As Blitz players found themselves out of position and with bad angles on Stewart, the veteran QB just kept sprinting towards the end zone. With his score the game was once again knotted up.
On the very next drive, Stewart did it again, this time to the right and this time only 49 yards to paydirt, but the back-to-back drives showed the Blitz that their defensive plan had a major flaw, they simply did not account for Stewart as a rusher. They would remedy this in the 2nd half, but by then the damage had been done. Down 17-10, Baltimore had a good drive and tied the game back up at 17 when Big Ben hit Jacob Tamme on a play action toss from the 3.
But, just as the half was ending, Washington drove the ball back into Baltimore territory, thanks in part to a 36-yard reception from Eddie Kennison and then a defensive pass interference called in the end zone. With the ball at the 1, they let Stewart plunge in on the keeper and the Federals’ QB put Tampa Bay up 24-17 at the break.
The third quarter saw only a field goal from Doug Pelfry to help Washington extend the league to 10 points, but when Stewart connected again with Eddie Kennison, this time for 7 points, the Feds had a growing 17-point lead on the host Blitz. Baltimore would need to start throwing the ball more, taking it out of the hands of one of their chief weapons, HB Ron Dayne. Dayne, who finished the game with 107 yards on 18 carries, would have only 2 carries in the final period.
Baltimore began their comeback effort with a short drive leading to a Martin Grammatica field goal at 8:49 left in the period. They kicked deep and the defense got them the ball back. This time they would not settle for another 3 points. In 7 plays they drove the ball to the Washington 17 and then Roethlisberger hit Harry Douglas for the score that got them back to within 7. But they would need an onside kick this time, with only 3:03 left to play.
The onside kick failed to give the ball back to the Blitz, and they called on the defense to get it back as quickly as possible. The problem is, chasing both McCallister and Stewart all day had gassed the Blitz D, and in the final 3 minutes of action they simply could not stop the Washington run game. Stewart kept the ball twice, McCallister added his 14th through 17th carry, and Washington just kept running down the clock until, at last, the final second ticked off as both teams awaited a 2nd and 4 play.
With the win, Washington retains 2nd place in the NE Division and the #4 seed. They will host the #5 seed Blitz in one week’s time, just 37 miles away at RFK Stadium. The end zones will look very different, but the mix of Fed and Blitz fans should make the stands look about the same. Will Washington be able to pull off two wins in two weeks, or will Baltimore take the rematch? Should be a good one.
In order to present the final weekend of play as it happened, we will return to covering the games in the order in which they happened, beginning with the three noon games on Saturday and working our way to Denver’s showdown with Houston on Sunday night.
St. Louis 18 Pittsburgh 13
A let down by the Maulers, who had a chance to reach .500, but gave up a win despite St. Louis not scoring an offensive touchdown in their finale. With Sage Rosenfels again at QB, St. Louis managed only 4 field goals, but were helped to the win by a poor throw from Cody Pickett that led to a William Gay pick-six, the score that would eventually prove the difference in this one.
Atlanta 13 Boston 10
Adrian McPherson did not fare well in this game, going 14 of 29 and struggling to connect on third downs, not a great final impression to leave on the coaches as they go into the offseason thinking about the QB position. Both Atlanta and Boston are very likely among the 7-9 teams who may be trying to upgrade at the QB position this offseason, and this game is good evidence of why.
Tampa Bay 24 Orlando 17
It was Brad Gradkowski going up against Matt Cassel in this one, not the game that most Bandit or Renegade fans expected at the beginning of the season. The star of the game was Willis McGahee, who returned from a week of rest with a strong 132-yard game, including a 41-yard run that helped set up the game winning score, a Roscoe Parrish TD catch. Orlando finishes a very disappointing 6-10 campaign, while Tampa Bay finishes a surprising 14-2 and prepares for a bye before hosting a divisional round game in 2 weeks.
Seattle 45 Los Angeles 0
A truly ugly game between two teams with very different priorities. A win and Seattle would lock up a Wild Card, while LA was playing out the string and trying not to suffer any injuries. It showed as the Dragons simply had their way with the Express all game. It was 24-0 at the half thanks to TDs from Nate Burleson, David Boston, and Darren Sproles. Three picks by Seneca Wallace certainly did not help as Seattle made short work of the Express and now prepares for a road game in the Wild Card round.
Portland 5 Las Vegas 24
With Seattle up big against LA, the Thunder knew that they likely were sitting out the playoffs, but they still played well all game to lock down the Stags and give the fans one last W for the year, their first winning season since moving from Portland. Marshawn Lynch had 111 yards in limited action (only 9 carries), including a 47-yard rumble that included one of the best straight arms you will ever see.
Ohio 20 Oakland 23
The Glory, a preseason favorite for the league title, finish the year at 7-9 and out of playoff contention in what has to be one of the more surprising stories of the year. Oakland got 2 TDs from Jerious Norwood, giving him the rushing TD title this year despite being a substitute for Ricky Williams, who had more than double the carries. Chris Redman started for Ohio and struggled to avoid Oakland’s improved pass rush.
BIRMINGHAM 20 MEMPHIS 33
Birmingham gave the Showboats a good game at Liberty Bowl Stadium, but in the end the Boats had more to fight for, knowing a win would lock them into the Southern Division title, regardless of the result in New Orleans. Brett Favre survived 5 sacks to throw for 324 yards and 2 scores, including a 78-yard haymaker to Lee Evans as the Showboats finish the year at 10-6 and will host a Wild Card game next week.
NASHVILLE 7 NEW ORLEANS 17
The Breakers may not have captured the division, but their 5th straight win guaranteed them the #6 seed in the East, and a vast improvement over the 4-7 record they had a month ago. Fred Jackson rushed for 2 scores in split carries with rookie Matt Forte, and the defense held Jay Cutler to only 177 yards, which is still far better than the Knights’ rushing game did with Frank Gore still sidelined. Benjarvis Green-Ellis had 21 carries for a stunningly bad 4 total yards. For those keeping track, that is 0.2 yards per carry.
JACKSONVILLE 20 CHARLOTTE 24
A good ending to a solid season for Charlotte as they equal Portland’s win total for the year and finish a very respectable 7-9 in their first season. Chris Weinke threw TDs to Brandon Marshall and TE Dan Carpenter, while the defense picked off Jake Delhomme two times to send Jacksonville to the same 7-9 record as the Monarchs would end with.
NEW JERSEY 13 TEXAS 24
Romeo Crennel’s stint with New Jersey comes to an end with a whimper, not a bang, as the team Crennel led to a title in 2006 now finishes at 2-14 and very much in need of a full overhaul. Texas, improved to 6-10, but still has a lot of questions to ask of itself. The good news for Texas is that they seem to have a solid foundation with HB T. J. Duckett and rookie QB Joe Flacco.
CHICAGO 17 ARIZONA 0
Not much drama in this one as Colt Brennan and the Wranglers could not do anything against Chicago’s defense. The Machine recorded 6 sacks of Brennan and 2 picks as ell on their way to an easy win and a shutout. Both Chicago touchdowns were defensive scores as Marlin Jackson ran back a pick and Victor Abiami turned a strip-sack into a score with a 6-yard runback. Chicago may want more from their offense in the playoffs, but they will have 2 weeks to prepare as they finish the season as the #1 seed in the West.
PHILADELPHIA 10 MICHIGAN 6
Their playoff positions locked in, both clubs played quite a few backups and played very conservatively in this one. It was Drew Stanton for the Panthers against Jeff Smoker, the former Panther and current backup for Kurt Warner in Philly. Smoker got the lone TD of the game, a 28-yard toss to Reche Caldwell to give Philadelphia the win in a game both teams played far too cautiously for our taste.
DENVER 9 HOUSTON 6
Another game that saw both teams playing conservatively and with both backups in the game. Matt Hasselbeck started for Houston but was pulled after only 3 drives in favor of Luke McCown. With the Gold revealing that Matt Leinart’s injury was a significant one, one keeping him out of the postseason, they started Derrick Anderson at QB. Neither team showed much with a lot of vanilla playcalls, and in the end Denver was one field goal better than Houston in a game that did not alter the playoff destinies of either team.
The Biggest Stories of 2008
Rather than focus on Week 16, which, in all honesty was a bit of a letdown after a great season, we thought we would look back over the entire season and provide you with our take on the 8 biggest stories that came out of this year, understanding, of course, that more stories will certainly be told during the playoffs. But, from the regular season, these 8 developments had us all debating and discussing the USFL this spring and summer.
8. A Shift Towards Balance at Last?
This is a subject we have not really delved into but a lot of people have noticed it, the disparity between the run and the pass seems to be shrinking. The USFL, always known as a wide open passing league, seems to be warming up to a strong run game, ironically just as the NFL seems to be opening up to a more spread, open passing game. What is our evidence? How about the fact that this season, how about the fact that only 3 wideouts this year were able to gain more yards than the 10th best halfback? Only Ochocinco, Holt, Boston, and Price had more than Antowain Smith’s 1,234 yards. Furthermore, we had only 17 1,000 yard receivers and 20 1,000 yard rushers this season. That in and of itself is amazing, heck, just having 20 backs top 1,000 yards is amazing all on its own.
Looking at total yardage, only 5 of the top 10 passing teams made the postseason, but 7 of the top 10 rushing teams have playoff games yet to play. Stopping the run also seems to have been vital for team success. The of the top 5 rush defenses (New Orleans, Chicago, LA, Philadelphia, and Denver) only the Express are not a playoff team. Now, we are not saying that the passing game has seen its day, after all Brett Favre, Byron Leftwich, Ben Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning, the top 4 passing yardage guys in the league are all headed to the postseason, but what we are saying is the USFL is looking more and more like a good team, balance in what it can do.
7. New Orleans’s Hot Streak.
This story may have emerged only in the past month or so, but it has become one of the best water cooler conversations around the league. After muddling to a 4-7 record by Week 11, a week that saw them lose by 12 to the LA Express, something started going right for New Orleans. They knocked off the New Jersey Generals in Week 12, not really unexpected, but then rattled off 4 more wins to end the season at a surprising 9-7. That included wins at Las Vegas and then home to Memphis and Nashville. During that span, the defense came alive, limiting all 5 opponents to 20 points or fewer and turning up the pressure. By season’s end their middling defense had moved up the table and they finished the year #10 overall, but #1 against the run, allowing only 83 yards per game.
Add to this the success of Eli Manning and the interesting duo of Matt Forte and Fred Jackson, whose combined 1,522 yards helped the Breakers make that run to the postseason. Many fans are still somewhat dubious of the Breakers’ success, but they will get a chance to silence the doubters with their Wild Card game in Memphis this Sunday. If they win that, they may just make believers out of us all.
6. Seattle’s Turnaround.
If New Orleans’s change of fate is sending ripples through the league, the Seattle turnaround from an 0-4 start to a 10-2 finish is a tidal wave. The 2007 Pacific Division champions looked like anything but a contender in the season’s first month, when they dropped games not only at Oakland and Las Vegas, two tough places to play, but also lost at home to expansion Portland and the Breakers. And yet, like New Orleans, once things clicked, they really clicked. Seattle, beginning with a Week 5 win at Birmingham, went on to win 6 in a row before dropping a game in Denver. Along the way, the Dragons improved on both sides of the ball, ending the year with the 2nd ranked offense for yardage (3rd for scoring) and the 5th ranked scoring defense. They will play at Houston this week, and it would not surprise anyone if they pulled off the road upset and kept moving on. Like we said, once they figured out what was wrong, they fixed it and have been rolling ever since.
5. Shutouts? In the USFL?
The USFL is known for many things, but shut outs have never been one of them. Up until this year you could count the number of seasons with more than 1 shutout on one hand, and most seasons there was nary a one recorded.
So what happened this year? In 2008 we have seen six shutouts along with another 26 games where the losing team failed to score a touchdown. Some point to the expansion over the past three seasons, spreading out offensive talent (apparently, they would say, there is more defensive talent out there to be spread). Others might point to rule changes that benefit the defense, while others look at some of the NFL raids of USFL free agency and wonder if the overall quality of player might have dipped. There are a lot of theories, which is what makes this such an interesting topic, but no clear sense of how to fix this and improve the overall competitive balance in the league. No one, from the Commissioner’s Office to the common fan wants to sit through too many games where one of the two teams is just not able to do anything.
4. The Year of the Rookie?
This has been a particularly good year for rookie starters across the league. Running Back was the focus of our preseason preview edition, and that turned out to be a pretty good focus, but certainly not the only position where rookies found success. Joe Flacco had a solid first year as the only rookie to start for his club this season. Several receivers, including Donnie Avery and Early Doucet in New Orleans, Harry Douglas in Baltimore, James Hardy in Chicago, and Jordy Nelson in St. Louis, got significant snaps, and defenders like LA’s Keith Rivers and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie excelled in their first season. Others worthy of mention include LBs Jerod Mayo (CHA), Beau Bell (HOU), Dan Connor (PHI), and Xavier Adibi (WSH) also made big contributions. Early in what would become an injury-shortened season, Calais Campbell of Orlando was lighting up the league and quarterbacks as one of the league’s sack leaders. But in the end, it is the halfbacks who are getting most of our attention. Looking back on the backs taken in the 2008 Draft, we give you this breakdown of their carries, yards, and touchdowns. It is an impressive group, to say the least.
3. The Jake Plummer Sweepstakes.
It’s always a bit of a shock when a starting QB, especially a long-term starter moves on. But when that QB won two MVP awards for the team in the same city as his college heyday, it is a huge deal. That is what we have with Jake Plummer demanding a trade from what he believes is a dysfunctional Arizona Wranglers club. That the club realized that trading Plummer was their best move is a sign that they are not totally dysfunctional. They will be able to cash in on Plummer, who could easily have another 5 years of quality play in him, even more if he lands with a team that can use him properly and protect him well. Problem is, the teams that have proven they can maximize a QB’s talent and protect that QB are very unlikely to be in the market. We have already reviewed our most likely candidates, and most of them are teams that have been floundering with poor QB play for quite some time, including all 4 teams that are currently looking for new coaches.
Where Plummer ends up will be a huge story this offseason, and will have a domino effect as every club that does not land the Wrangler QB will need to have a solid Plan B. Depending on when the move is executed, that could be tricky. Regardless of the result, Plummer’s transition to a new team after 16 years in Phoenix (4 with ASU, 12 with the Wranglers) will be talked about all offseason.
2. The Underperformance of Boston, Orlando, and Ohio.
We were all so confident this year in predicting Ohio, Boston, and Orlando as division champions. Enamored of their pedigree, their talent level, and their success in 2007. We fell head over heels for the idea of Randy Moss joining the trifecta of Collins, Galloway, and George in Ohio that there was plenty of talk of another 16-0 season. So what happened?
That is tough to say. For Boston there were problems long before Drew Bledsoe went down to injury, and the Cannons actually seemed to play better with him on the IR. In Orlando, there was early success, and rookie Calais Campbell made a huge first impression, but the offense never got on track, and when Campbell went down the defense started to slide as well. And, quite frankly, what happened in Ohio, leading to a 7-9 season and no postseason, may be the toughest of the three to address. The word that keeps coming up is “age”. Kerry Collins just does not seem the same QB as in his MVP runs in the earlier part of the decade. Eddie George also seems a step slower, and Joey Galloway could be on the fringe of retirement. The Ohio offense should have been a juggernaut, but it was instead more of a clunky tugboat.
Will one, two, or all three clubs rebound in 2009? It is very possible, perhaps most likely for Orlando, which has a younger core than the other two. All three clubs still have a lot of talent to bring to the table, but if this season shows anything it is that talent on paper and results on the field do not always go hand in hand.
1. The Surprising Dominance of the Tampa Bay Bandits
There was no bigger shock this season than the sudden rise to dominance of the Tampa Bay Bandits. This was a club that finished 2007 in last place in the Southeast Division, with a 5-9 record and a 1-6 road record. They come out , edge Chicago in the opener, then lose 7-3 at Pittsburgh (admittedly in horrible gametime weather) but then roll on to 12 straight wins before resting a dinged up Daunte Culpepper in a late season loss to Jacksonville. This was just not supposed to be the story this year on the Gulf Coast. It was the beginning of a rebuild. They had lost Randy Moss to free agency, so the offense was expected to suffer. Many, including this reporter, called their receiving corps the worst in the league. And while the offense was not 1998 dynamic (they finished 12th in scoring and 10th in yardage), they found a new way to win, a way that we just did not think aligned with Tampa Bay football, a little thing called defense.
The Bandits finished the year with the league’s best scoring defense, allowing a paltry 14.4 points per game. They did this despite being only 17th against the pass and 11th against the run. How is that possible? Well, a +18 turnover margin is a huge part of it. A league-best 100 tackles for loss is another, and a Top 3 stop rate on third down, that is how you do it. As always, the defense was led by Kevin Mitchell, whose 137 tackles were 40 more than the next Bandit. Jonathan Vilma and Zeke Moreno were also huge factors in the LB corps. Ten sacks from Derrick Harvey and another 7 from Derrrick Burgess made the D&D front as scary as the actual D&D was for evangelical parents in the 80’s. Then you add one of the best ball-hawking defensive backfields, with Samari Rolle leading the way with 6 picks, and you have a defense that stops drives, makes big plays, and puts your offense in a position to win.
Can this formula take Tampa Bay all the way back to the Summer Bowl, just up the road in Jacksonville? Well, it appears that Zeke Moreno will miss at least one game, which could hurt, but otherwise the team is solid. If they can play their game, at their pace, and get the turnovers they have gotten all year, there is no reason not to pick them as a favorite. The Bandits may have surprised us all this year, but they will not be underestimated in the postseason.
As we mentioned in our intro, with all of this week’s games, nothing actually changed in the standings. Seattle and New Orleans held onto the final Wild Card spots and Memphis locked up the Southern Division. So, we have our 12 playoff teams, and, to say the least, these are not the 12 that most people predicted, with Tampa Bay, Baltimore, New Orleans, Denver and Oakland all outperforming preseason expectations.
So, what do we have next week, well, the Bandits, Stars, Machine, and Invaders get a week to heal and plan, while 8 teams battle in the Wild Card round. The matchups are possibly more interesting in the East, where both Wild Card games are divisional matches and rematches of games from the past 2 weeks, while out West we have two less common pairings. The weekend will start with a rematch of this week’s Game of the Week, just in a new setting. #5 seed Baltimore will now travel down the road to #4 seed Washington, hoping to flip the script from this week’s Federals’ win. The other Saturday Game pits the #6 seed Seattle Dragons, who no one wants to play, against the #3 seed Houston Gamblers. Expect the line on this one to be very close because of Seattle’s impressive 10-2 finish to the year after a 0-4 start.
On Sunday we kick off at noon with a rematch from two weeks ago, when the Breakers edged the Showboats. This time the game will be in Memphis, and this time the loser of this divisional matchup will be headed home. The final game of the weekend has Michigan hosting a playoff game for the first time since 1996, more than a decade ago, as they host the Denver Gold in a #4 vs. #5 Wild Card matchup.
Looking at the four Wild Card games, injuries absolutely could play a role in each. Let’s break it down.
WSH SS Bob Sanders (Q), C Austin King (Q), LB Antonio Pierce (Pr)
BAL FS David Trujillo (IR), WR Marty Booker (Out) , T Matt Hill (Q), DT Barry Cofield (Pr)
If Bob Sanders cannot go, that definitely could open up the passing game for Baltimore, but if Matt Hill cannot go for the Blitz, that makes it tougher to defend the pocket to allow for a deep passing game. A bit of a chess game on that front between these two teams.
HOU G Chris Naole (Out), LB Kevin Burnett (D), DE Jabari Issa (Q), LB Keith Brooking, (Pr)
SEA LB Godfrey Miles (IR), CB Leodis McKelvin (Prob)
Seattle is not only one of the hottest teams in the league, but one of the healthiest. Missing Godfrey Miles is not great, but Houston is also down one, maybe two starting linebackers.
MEM T Anthony Clement (Out), LB Hannibal Navies (P), WR Sindey Rice (P)
NOR CB Billy Austin (Out), LB Bradie James (P), DT Josh Shaw (P)
A pretty healthy matchup, assuming all the probables turn into players on the field, but Anthony Clement being out of the lineup for Memphis could explain why Favre has been sacked more often the past few weeks. If the Breakers can get to Favre, they can cause him to make mistakes.
MGN CB Donovan Greer (IR), QB D Stanton (Doub), C Jeff Faine (Prob)
DEN QB Matt Leinart (Out), TE Greg Clark (Out), T Dustin Rykert (Q), G Travis Claridge (Q)
All you have to do is look at the impact on Denver’s offense of their 4 injuries to realize that the Gold might be in some trouble. Not only their starting QB, but their primary tight end, and two offensive linemen are down. That is a real challenge for Coach Jauron to overcome.
Black Monday Limited to 2 Teams
With Romeo Crennel stepping down and Arizona letting Jim Fassel go mid-season, we had a feeling that Black Monday would not see a lot of announcements. Only two this year as Birmingham does pull the trigger on Coach Kent Austin after a dismal 2-14 first season and Atlanta decides to part ways with Jay Gruden after three seasons of diminishing returns.
Neither dismissal is a huge shock. Birmingham brought Austin in attempting to salvage Jason Campbell in his contract year and to bring some innovative play calling down from the CFL. Neither occurred, and the Stallions suffered their worst season in team history. They will now start from scratch with a new GM, a new Head Coach, and very likely a new QB, since Campbell was allowed to hit free agency. Rumors have Birmingham looking for a coach with a winning track record and a flair for creativity. Will they step outside of the SEC and its coaching trees to get one? And will they sign a coach quickly or set up their GM with the offseason and then wait for the NFL season to end to snag a hot prospect from the fall league?
As for Atlanta, a 7-7 inaugural season set up high expectations, but the Fire have dropped a game each subsequent year, down to 6-8 last year and 5-11 this season. That generally does not work for ownership, and that was what largely cost Jay Gruden his position. Not landing on a franchise QB in three seasons, paired with the more immediate success of 2008 expansion clubs Charlotte and Portland made it clear that the Fire needed a change. Our best guess for a new direction is that they will try to land a defensive-minded coach, but also invest in an up-and-coming OC to try to kickstart an offense around Darren McFadden and, quite possibly, if their hopes turn into realities, QB Matt Stafford out of Georgia.
Surviving poor seasons this year were first-year Skyhawks coach Doug Williams, third year Texas coach Norv Turner, and 3rd year LA head coach Hue Jackson. Jackson was not in much risk, having helped LA to a Summer Bowl only 2 seasons ago, with two outstanding rookies on defense to build on, and with the excuse of their starting QB being lost for most of the season. Texas saw solid improvement from the early weeks until the final month, largely due to the learning curve for rookie QB Joe Flacco, while St. Louis is giving Doug Williams time to build a roster that matches his preferred style of play. Expect St. Louis to be a major player in the Jake Plummer sweepstakes as Coach Williams is clearly enamored of the idea of bringing in the 2-time league MVP.
League & Union Still at an Impasse
A concerning bit of news coming out of New York, that while the league office has managed to come to a new understanding with their counterparts in the NFL regarding the transfer window, that agreement has perhaps worsened, not bettered, the relationships between both leagues and their respective unions. The new agreement very likely decreases the market for inter-league signings as both windows now fall squarely during the early season of each league, meaning that players would need to give up several potential paychecks, and risk remaining unsigned for 18 months or more if they don’t get a solid offer from the rival league after failing to sign in time to start the season with their current league.
Add to this that as the story of the inter-league negotiations developed, more and more financial information from both leagues was made public, and that information showed that the players in both leagues not only benefited from the inter-league transfers, with salaries going up consistently, but that both leagues had grown at a rate that made the last CBA with the players all but obsolete. Based on lower revenue numbers the prior CBA between the USFL and the USFLPA, for example, meant that while the players were initially earning about 50% of all league revenue within the salary cap and contract framework in existence, by the current year, that number had dipped to only 43% and could potentially dip even further if a new agreement does not address salaries as a percentage of revenue directly.
The dual issues of mobility and salary structure, including the salary cap as a floating number tied to revenue from recent years, is very much at the heart of the position the USFLPA is taking, demanding a greater seat at the table when it comes to inter-league discussions, and a greater cut of the league’s growing revenue stream. The NFLPA has similar demands, of course, but the CBA in the fall league has allowed greater correlation between revenue and salary cap adjustments, so the players there still receive about 52% of all revenue as salaries, despite the growing revenue available to the league. Expect that point, along with the limiting structure of the new transfer windows, to be the two big sticking points this fall. What we have to worry about is that a new deal will not be in place by January, which could produce an offseason “stoppage” or even a delay to training camps in February. Let us hope it does not come to that. For now, with meetings scheduled in both September and October, there is hope that a deal can be cut that allows the league’s owners to still see profitability while also providing players with the negotiating power the transfer window had given them and a fair cut of the league’s revenue.
Here we go, playoff football is here and we kick it off with four intriguing Wild Card games. We have rematches, division rivals, Cinderella stories and teams hot at the right time. Should be 2 days of must watch TV, and for those who can get to Ford Field, RFK, the Liberty Bowl or NRG Stadium, get out there and get ready for some midsummer playoff football.
Saturday, June 28 @ 3pm EDT
RFK Stadium, Washington, D.C.
Back to back matchups between two teams are rare in football, but sometimes we do see a divisional season ender paired with a Wild Card matchup of the same teams, and that is what we have here. Washington edged Baltimore to win the right to host this game, but that game was so close that there is no way to be sure that the Feds have the edge. We feel pretty confident that Baltimore is going to adjust their defense to account for Kordell Stewart’s legs after he ran for 2 long TDs last week. But what will both clubs do differently? That is the key to this game, surprising an opponent who knows you well. Our suggestion to Washington, use McCallister more as a receiver. He had only 1 catch in Week 16. For Baltimore, more 2 TE formations with Gates and Tamme. Both can catch the ball, and having a bigger base lineup means more blocking for Ron Dayne.
OUR PICK: A tough call as these are two very evenly matched teams. The Federals barely won both regular season matchups, and you know what they say about facing the same team 3 times, so we are going to go out on a limb and pick the upset (a 2-point upset) by going with the up and coming Blitz.
Saturday, June 28 @ 8pm EDT
NRG Stadium, Houston
Seattle’s 23-20 win at Houston in Week 5 was one of the early indicators that the Dragons were turning their season around after an 0-4 start. They would go on to win 10 of 12 games and come into the Wild Card round after having just demolished LA 45-0. Houston finished with a more troubling 9-6 loss to Denver in Week 16, a game that snapped a nice 5-week run of victories. The Gamblers will have a clear home field advantage, though playing in a dome means that Houston’s heat and humidity will not be a factor. Seattle is higher ranked on both offense (3rd vs. 8th) and defense (5th vs. 9th) but Houston is a better pressure team, meaning they can get to the QB and force mistakes.
OUR PICK: If this game is played in the teens, that seems to favor Houston, but if the score starts to rise, we think Seattle gets the W on the road. Our best guess is that this game ends up in the high 20’s, with the Dragons staying hot and moving on.
Sunday, June 29 @ 1 pm EDT
Liberty Bowl Stadium, Memphis
These two division rivals played just 2 weeks ago, with the Breakers edging the Showboats 21-20. Earlier in the year, Week 1 to be exact, it was Memphis winning 26-20, but that feels like a long time ago. Statistically the Showboats should have this one. They have the #2 offense in the league with a likely MVP finalist in Brett Favre leading the way, and their defense is solid against the run, making New Orleans a bit more one dimensional. But the Breakers are on a 5-game winning streak, and in that time they have shown a great deal of maturation and focus. Their rankings are not great, though they do have the #1 run defense in the league, which could be a great advantage, but what we like about New Orleans is their focus.
OUR PICK: We are going for the upset here. Brett Favre does have a tendency to make some unforced errors (ie. picks), and with Memphis being the defending league champion, we are not sure their fire for another trophy is as fierce as that of the Breakers, who have never won a title.
Sunday, June 29 @ 5pm EDT
Ford Field, Detroit
This may be the toughest of the 4 games to figure out, but finding out that Matt Leinart is out does have us leaning more heavily towards the Panthers. The Panthers have lost 3 of their last 4 as they head into the postseason, with a 30-7 crushing by the Pittsburgh Maulers bothering us quite a bit. They need to rediscover their focus, a focus that had them atop the Central for much of the year, and they need to maintain offensive balance, mixing the run in to ensure that Brian Griese does not get too much pressure. Without Leinart, Denver is absolutely diminished. They will have to use Mewelde Moore and Cedric Benson well to provide offense, because we are not sure Derrick Anderson is ready to carry the load on offense. The defense is very solid, and could be the key to a Denver upset here.
OUR PICK: As much as Michigan has been struggling over the past month, we think the injury to Leinart is reason enough to expect Denver to struggle. The Panthers have more going for them, so we opt to pick the favorite here.
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