Some big time games this past week, including a shocking road win by Houston over the Ohio Glory, and wins by three teams most had written off, with Michigan upending Denver, Baltimore stunning the Express, and Orlando surprising the Nashville Knights. We also had a major shootout in Boston as the Stallions kept the Cannons guessing, and some closely fought games as Jacksonville, New Jersey, Chicago, and Washington barely avoided upsets. Let’s get to it with that Federals game, as they hosted the Seattle Dragons in a game that needed a 5th quarter before we had a winner.
SEATTLE DRAGONS 31 WASHINGTON FEDERALS 34 OVERTIME
The “Battle of Washingtons” was an epic game that kept all of RFK on the edge of their seats for 60 minutes and then a little bit more. Seattle came in hoping to reach .500 and potentially regain a share of first place in the Pacific Division, while the Federals were eager to avoid dropping to .500 and allowing New Jersey to take command of the division. Both clubs saw this interconference clash as a game they had to have, and they played like it. In a game that would go to overtime we saw a clash of styles. Washington was happy to play ball control, hold long drives, kill clock, and keep Seattle’s offense off the field, Seattle was all about big plays and quick strikes. Two stats drive this home: Washington’s 22 first down’s to Seattle’s 9, and Washington’s 39:04 time of possession to Seattle’s 26:32. The Federals feared the quick strike ability of the Dragons, and clearly that was a valid concern as Seattle scored on plays of 59, 49, 24, and 31 yards in the game.
Despite handing the ball off to Deuce McCallister 23 times, this would be Kordell Stewart’s game. He would complete 30 of 43 passes for 325 yards and two scores, while on the other sideline Byron Leftwich would throw only 17 pass attempts, but throw for 286 yards and 4 touchdowns. Washington blitzed Leftwich, which did produce a bone-rattling 10 sacks on the day (for -74 yards), but also placed a premium on one-to-one coverage, a coverage which Leftwich exploited often enough to keep the Dragons in this game.
Washington looked like they had the winning strategy over the game’s first 10 minutes as they stopped the Dragons on 3-and-outs on their first two drives, while also running through over 10 minutes of the first half on two long drives that ended with a Bryant Johnson TD catch and a Doug Pelfrey field goal. But, in what would be a theme of the game, it only took one mistake for Seattle to get right back in it, as Washington blitzed, it got picked up and Leftwich connected with TE Ken Dilger deep over the middle for a 59-yard touchdown to get right back in the game as the first quarter ended.
Washington would score again to open the 2nd, but then Seattle would score on their next two possessions to take a 17-13 lead into halftime thanks to a David Boston fly pattern that again beat the Feds’ secondary. When Boston repeated the same route to open the third, it was 24-13 Seattle despite the fact that the Federals had dominated the clock and possession.
Coach Hackett adjusted strategies, relying more on his front 4 to put pressure on and that strategy helped Washington get back in the game. The Feds’ had a 12 play drive that ended with a Kordell Stewart QB draw that was good for a score from 6 yards out. They converted the 2-point play to pull within 3 at 24-21, and then, after a successful stop of the Dragons thanks to Tony Brackens’ 2nd sack of the day, took over the ball and scored again with a Deion Branch TD pass to retake the lead at 28-24.
The 4th quarter opened with the Feds extending their lead with a Doug Pelfrey field goal. They had been effective in the past couple of drives of pressuring Leftwich without putting their corners in an unwinnable situation. But, with 4:38 left to play, Seattle had one more shot to tie the game up. They would also shift tactics, not go for the deep ball, but dink and dunk their way to a score. Of Seattle’s 9 first downs on the day, 3 came on this final drive as Leftwich combined 4 Corey Dillon runs with short passes to O.J. McDuffie, Jeramy Stevens, and, finally, a screen to HB Brian Mitchell. That screen was timed perfectly and, with 2 blockers out in front, Mitchell was able to avoid the linebackers and make it into the secondary, where a great block by McDuffie freed him for the 31-yard TD to tie the game with just over 2 minutes left in the game.
Washington would have time for a final drive, but when called for a holding call on 3rd and 7 on the Seattle 35, the walk back of 10 yards put them out of field goal range for the final play and the Stewart Hail Mary did not find a receiver, so the game went to overtime. In the extra period Seattle won the toss and started off well, gaining a first down thanks to penalty, but then fizzled. Washington got the ball and went to work, with Stewart connecting with Jamie Asher and Bryant Johnson to get the ball across the 50. An offsides call, one of 8 penalties called against Seattle on the day, put the ball close enough that on 4th and 2 the Feds opted to go for the 52-yard field goal attempt instead of trying to convert. Doug Pelfrey, one of the league’s best kickers, proved it by connecting on the long kick and giving Washington a hard-earned win. For Seattle it was a heartbreaking loss, but for the Federals, who showed some concerns on defense with the big plays by the Dragons, they made adjustments and found a way to win. That experience could help them down the stretch as they likely face several challenges within their own division.
BIR 33 BOS 40
A real shooutout in Boston, and a huge save from backup Cannon QB Jim Miller as he came in for an injured Drew Bledsoe and orchestrated three second half scoring drives to help hold off the Stallions. Mike Cloud was huge in this game as well, as he subbed for the dinged up Tiki Barber and garnered 112 yards on 23 carries to help the Cannons hold on for the home victory over a very game Stallion squad.
HOU 24 OHI 17
The upset of the day in Columbus as Houston just stuck around, played good defense, and then struck with a huge play as the game wound down. Kris Kershaw only completed 14 of 30 passes, but he found rookie Roy Williams open with 2 minutes left to play and the two connected on a 65-yard touchdown that silenced the Ohio faithful and earned the win for the visiting Gamblers.
NOR 17 TBY 48
No such drama in Tampa Bay, where the Breakers struggled all day long as Tampa was humming on both offense and defense. Trent Dilfer was sacked 5 times and threw a costly 2nd quarter pick just as the Breakers looked to be going in for a half-ending score. Daunte Culpepper threw for 4 TD’s, two each to Randy Moss and Chris Doering, as the Bandits cruised in this one.
ARZ 17 CHI 22
Chicago keeps finding itself in dogfights, but they come out on top, as was the case this week at Soldier Field. Ray Lucas struggled against the Wrangler defense, but Chicago’s own defense kept them in the game, even adding some points thanks to a safety on Dominique Rhodes in the endzone helped Chicago pull ahead and hold on to win by 5.
LA 10 BAL 37
The Express have been erratic all year, but we don’t think anyone saw this result coming. Ben Roethlisberger had answers for the Express pass rush and connected with his receivers for 3 touchdowns as Baltimore built up a 24-3 lead before LA seemed to realize they had a game to play. LA was hurt by QB injuries throughout the game as they finished the day with 3rd stringer Rob Johnson under center. Cade McNown could miss a month with a foot injury and Quincy Carter is likely gone for the year after a painful day for LA in more ways than one.
OAK 13 NJ 16
Oakland made it a game after falling behind 16-3, but it was too little too late as a last second 48-yard kick by Joe Nedney missed to the right and kept the game from going to overtime. Another impressive game for Generals’ halfback James Jackson, who may be demanding more touches after clearly outgaining Curtis Enis in this game.
LV 16 PHI 13
Another low scoring affair in Philly as the Stars and Thunder both looked out of synch and sloppy in this one. Larry Johnson does not look like the answer for the Stars as he carried the ball 18 times but gained only 14 yards in a truly forgettable outing. Las Vegas’s new QB Aaron Brooks looked about as rusty as we expected, but got the job done when he needed to, setting up the game-winning field goal during the game’s final seconds.
DEN 16 MGN 26
Another of this week’s surprising results as Michigan started hot with TDs from Ladell Betts and Hines Ward and then never let Denver mount enough offense to gain ground. The Gold never led in this one and the Panthers just kept the pressure up all game to disrupt Mark Brunell and the Gold offense.
TEX 14 PIT 27
The Maulers got 93 yards from Terrell Davis before a spat of migraines late in the game forced him to adjourn to the locker room. Kenny Bynum finished the game, and availed himself well, gaining 40 yards on only 9 carries for the Maulers. Texas could not get their big back, T.J. Duckett into rhythm, as he carried only 15 times and gained barely 1.9 yards per carry against the Mauler defense.
MEM 20 JAX 24
Memphis kept this one close, but more victories are not going to be enough for Coach Mora, who could very well be in trouble with a 1-7 record. Antowain Smith helped Jacksonville keep Memphis at bay by rushing for 106 yards, 77 of them in the second half. Add in another big day for backup Fred Jackson, with 85 yards, and you have a Bulls team that simply drained the clock until there was no time for Memphis to challenge them.
NSH 16 ORL 24
Orlando has to be happy with what they saw from Jeff Blake in his second start. The former Jet & Bengal completed 21 of 26 passes, mostly short dump offs, for 188 yards and 3 touchdowns, including two to tight end Rickey Dudley, as the Renegades shocked the Knights in the Citrus Bowl. We think we might have cursed Todd Collins by trying to call him elite recently, as the Nashville QB suffered two bad picks, both clearly on him and not the receivers.
Bledsoe Injured, Miller Comes Up Big
A scary moment for the Boston Cannons as Drew Bledsoe was forced out of the game against Birmingham after his arm hit against a Stallion defender’s helmet on a throw in the 3rd quarter. The MVP candidate headed to the sideline holding his arm and in obvious pain, fans concerned that this could be a broken arm, which would likely end Bledsoe’s season. Up 28-17 at the time, the concern was not immediate for the game being played, but for the rest of the season.
Jim Miller, who has not seen the field in 2 years, came in and fans breathed a sigh of relief as he led the Cannons on two short field goal producing drives to expand the lead to 33-17. At least this game seemed secure. But, in the 4th, Brett Favre found Lawrence Dawsey twice, one following a bad Jim Miller pick, and suddenly it was 33-33 and Miller was looking shaky. Could this be a 2nd loss for the Cannons and one that could turn into a losing streak with Miller subbing for Bledsoe.
Boston fans got two bits of good news that afternoon. The first came when Miller led the Cannons on a 2-minute drive that included a 39-yard toss to Chad Ochocinco and a final TD toss to Robert Ferguson, demonstrating that Miller, even without preparation, could be effective in the Boston offense of Coach Fox. The second came later that afternoon when Cannon officials announced that X-rays had turned up negative, and Bledsoe had suffered a nerve pinch. The Big Guy is listed as doubtful for this week, but should be back after missing only 1 game when Boston faces Houston in Week 10.
Baltimore Finds Life
A two game win streak is not exactly front page material, but when you are the Baltimore Blitz and you have dealt with the always-bizarre Ryan Leaf fallout, having your rookie QB win back to back games is certainly a welcome site. When those wins are upsets of both Washington and Los Angeles, you sit up and take notice.
The Blitz Nation was a bit worried after Roethlisberger’s first start since the Leaf dismissal was an 18 of 32 game with 2 picks and no TDs against Ohio (a good team, but not one known for its defense). But over the past two weeks, Roethlisberger has completed 47 of 62 passes, for 615 yards, 4 touchdowns and only 1 pick as he knocked off both the Feds and the Express.
Over the 2 game span, the Blitz, who had lost the prior three games by a combined 111-14 scored 69 points while limiting the opposition to only 29. Not that this all can be directed at Roethlisberger, but clearly something has changed in the Blitz locker room. Addition by subtraction perhaps? The Blitz do not have an easy road ahead, with their next 3 games against Jacksonville (5-3), Nashville (4-4), and New Jersey (5-3), but fans in B-more now seem to have some hope that this is not a lost first season for coach Tom Coughlin.
LA QB Quandary
The Express had a really bad day against the Blitz this week. Not only did they fly all the way to the East Coast and lose to a 2-win Blitz team, but they also lost their top 2 quarterbacks in the mix. Cade McNown hobbled off the field after getting caught up in the pile on a fumble, favoring his right leg. He would be diagnosed with a torn ligament in the sole of his foot, likely a month before he can get back to on-field action. His backup, Quincy Carter, came in and played for only about one and a half quarters before he had to be helped off the field. His diagnosis is season ending, a torn MCL. So, in comes Rob Johnson, former USC star and now journeyman QB.
So what does LA do to build up a bench behind Johnson, the likely Week 9 starter? Well, they are in Baltimore, so they could reach out to Ryan Leaf. But no, they don’t. They reach back into the long list of LA area QB’s and sign former UCLA signal caller, NJ General and Texas Outlaw Tommy Maddox. Maddox, who has been out of the league since a 2001 season that saw him play in only 1 game, had a short stint in the NFL with the Steelers in 2002, but all but was released prior to the 2003 season, making him a true free agent after 6 months on the market (thus not held in check by the NFL-USFL agreement). Maddox lives in LA, so it makes sense for the Express to sign him as a quick fix for what they hope will not be a game-ready situation. They are hoping that Rob Johnson can capture some of his USC magic and keep the team afloat until McNown can return, but if not, it looks like it is UCLA to the rescue in the form of Maddox.
Lost Season? Lost Job?
Speaking of lost seasons, we have to discuss the absolute collapse of the Memphis Showboats. This is a Memphis squad that won the Western Conference and put up an 11-3 season in 2001, and now they sit at 1-7 and seem to have come apart at the seams. Heath Shuler seems a shell of the QB who won the 1999 MVP, and the stats prove it. After putting up 4 straight years of 4,500 yards or more, from 1998-2001, Shuler is currently on pace for only 2,700 yards in 2004. He has thrown only 3 TDs in eight games, and his QB rating has dipped from 107.6 last season to a ridiculous 63.3 this season.
While fans are saying that the 31 year old QB has hit the cliff that often hits quarterbacks much later in their 30’s, we think the blame needs to be spread out quite a bit more. The roster as a whole has seen a lot of departures, downgrades, and band-aids since that 1999 season, or even the 2001 Western Conference title. Dorsey Levins is a moderately talented back, but he is not going to force teams into 8 or 9 man fronts. The receiving corps of Justin McCaerins, rookie Lee Evans, and Oronde Gadsden is just not scaring anyone. Evans, in particular, has been a disappointment, with 30 catches, but averaging only 10.2 yards per catch. He was brought in as a speed receiver, but is catching mostly hooks and crossing routes, not the deep balls that he saw so often in Madison as a Badger.
Tight end Adrian Cooper may be the best to ever play in the USFL, but he too seems to be on a major decline in his 13th season in the league. The defense in Memphis is not horrible, 6th in yards allowed and 15th in scoring D, but the offense sits at dead last in both categories. While we might want to point fingers at players who are not living up to past years, a lot of the blame has to go to the front office, who simply have not upgraded the team over the past couple of years, and who apparently did not account for the needs of players who are getting older, like Cooper. We also have to recognize the fact that the club has not yet played a true home game, but can we really blame their issues on playing in front of pretty enthusiastic crowds in Little Rock and Oxford as the reason they are not performing better? Seems a stretch to say that.
Memphians voted overwhelmingly to support the Showboats with a ballot initiative to raise funds to refurbish Liberty Bowl Stadium, but is this really what they voted for? I guess it is good fortune for the Showboats organization that the vote was taken before this season began, because I am not so sure fans would rally behind the team they are seeing on the field right now.
We have already outlined the quarterback woes for the LA Express, but they were not alone in their pain. Several other teams lost important contributors to their teams this past week. Chicago has lost their starting left tackle for the year after a nasty injury left Marcus Spears with a broken fibia. Oakland also placed a player on the IR as LB Dan Morgan suffered a partial tear of his quad muscle (left leg) and will need at least 3 months to fully heal. A few shorter term injuries of note include Washington LB Michael Barrow, expected to miss 2-3 weeks with a wrist injury, Birmingham guard Bill Ferrario, also out 2-3 weeks with a knee isuse, and Philadelphia tackle Flozell Adams, listed as questionable, but not expected to play with two cracked ribs.
USFL Announces Expansion Format
This week the Ad Hoc Expansion Committee of the League Office in New York released the plan for both the 2006 and 2008 expansion player allocation system. The main elements of the system will not differ significantly from the 1995 expansion system, though having 2 expansion allocation drafts in 3 years is likely to cause something of a strain, and teams will also have to be careful about how they structure contracts over the next 4 years to avoid league fines. More on that in a moment, but first the basics.
The 2005 season will feature a standard offseason schedule and draft order, but teams will have to have an eye to the future, because the 2006 offseason will bring considerable changes. While free agents will remain able to deal with any club, including the two new expansion teams in 2006, teams will have to consider the allocation draft as they strategize about their offseasons. Free Agency will open in August with the usual start and the NFL-USFL transfer window, but in November the league will hold its allocation draft. Prior to that, at some point in late September, teams will have to identify their protected players. Each team will be able to protect 15 players with ongoing contracts. Those 15 players will not be available to the expansion clubs.
In the November allocation draft, the two teams will alternate picks in a zipper format, selecting unprotected players from the 24 current USFL squads over 30 rounds. Each time a player is taken from an existing team, that team can then protect one additional player. A team can only lose 5 players before all unprotected players are once again retained by their original club and that team is no longer a participant in the process. With 24 teams all making nearly 40 players available, that creates an initial pool of over 800 players for the expansion teams to each select 30. It still could hurt for for current teams as a 15-player retention list means that at least 7 starters are exposed, and any young, developing players could become prime fodder.
In 1995, teams lost more players, simply because there were 4 expansion clubs as opposed to 2, but the pattern we saw was that teams largely went for players under the age of 28, with only a smattering of veteran leaders taken by each of the 4 clubs (Ohio, Seattle, Atlanta and LA). A similar pattern could emerge here as well, though, again, with only 60 players actually taken.
The Expansion Clubs will also alternate picks in the Open Collegiate Draft, with 1 club having the #1 overall pick, and the other having the top pick in both the 2nd and 3rd round, and then alternating after that. There will also be a reallocation of territorial schools within the league, with the expectation that teams will each drop to only 2 protected schools for the T-Draft, and the potential that the two 2008 teams will also claim their two schools as part of the 2006 reallocation even if they will not draft players for two more seasons.
Between free agency, the allocation draft, and the combined T-Draft and Open Draft of collegiate players, the two expansion clubs in Atlanta and St. Louis should be able to reach a pre-camp roster of between 60-85 players, typical for most USFL clubs during the preseason period. While we can expect that no A-Tier superstars will be left unprotected, there are teams that are going to have to make tough decisions. For example, would New Orleans protect Trent Dilfer, Eli Manning, or spend 2 of 15 picks to hold onto both? Will a team like Ohio strive to sign a top level #2 receiver, knowing now that they may not be able to protect that player if they also need to lock up Collins, Galloway, Eddie George, and others? A lot of good players are going to come off the board, regardless of the strategies used by both the 24 current clubs and the two expansion franchises.
And then they get to do it all again in 2008. And that is the plan, to repeat the exact same process, with only one minor alteration, the two 2006 expansion clubs will be allowed to protect 20 players each while the remaining 24 clubs can protect only 15. This is supposed to afford those first two expansion clubs the ability to build a roster over time, something the other clubs in the league will have been engaged in for over a decade already.
So, what does this mean for contracts? And why the potential for fines? It is all about not using contracts to unofficially protect players who a team does not want to lose. The league, beginning in 2005, is going to monitor the terms of each player’s contract, particularly on the look out for balloon payments. There will be some flexibility on a multi-year contract, but the idea is to prevent a team from signing a top player to a large contract, but ballooning their contract in such a way that they can leave the player unprotected and have a good chance that neither expansion club will sign them and take on a disproportionate cap and salary burden.
As an example, let’s imagine that Byron Leftwich is up for renewal on his rookie deal, which is a possibility if he does not accept the 4th year extension. Seattle normally could structure a new deal, for let’s say $100 million, in such a way that Leftwich makes 10 million for 3 years and then 70 million the fourth year. There is no way that a player with that contract would be chosen by an expansion club if they had to pay out the $70 million while Seattle got away with only $10M. So, the new guidelines will not allow more than 30% of a contract to fall into any given year of that contract. The hope is that this restriction will force teams to balance a team’s contract, and either protect the player from allocation, or take their chances without penalizing the expansion clubs with exorbitantly high salary years as part of the contracts they will inherit from the 24 current clubs.
What does this all mean for us as USFL fans? Well, basically it means that you should not get too attached to your favorite players unless you feel 100% certain that those players will be among the 15 protected players for both the 2006 and 2008 offseasons. And don’t expect that teams will keep the same 15 each time. We could easily envision a scenario where a team like Birmingham or Boston would protect their franchise QB in 2006, and then, assuming Favre or Bledsoe don’t retire, would leave them unprotected in 2008 when they would clearly be at most a year away from retirement. The 1995 draft showed us that teams will give up on a savvy veteran if they believe that the player’s career is winding down. It saves teams on high cap salaries and lets them protect younger players on their way up. That is how Cliff Stoudt ended up in Atlanta, for example, and could easily be the reason we see players like a Trent Dilfer, Tiki Barber, or David Boston on the available player list, while others like Larry Fitzgerald or Willis McGahee are not going to be exposed for potential reallocation.
It all starts only about 1 year from now, when teams are going to have to declare their protected 15 players within 2 weeks of the conclusion of the USF regular season in 2005, a fact that may play some havok with the playoff clubs. While the selections for playoff teams will not be made public, it seems unlikely that players on those teams will not be keeping one eye out for leaks and updates to see if they made the cut and remained protected. Could be very interesting indeed.
Week 9 should be a fun one. Not only is it the first week when we reveal the playoff standings, but it is a Western divisional week, with all 12 teams in rivalry games that could go a long way to setting up the season’s final push in some very tight Western divisional races. So, who is facing who in what should be big games? How about Arizona traveling to Houston, where a Gambler win could pull them right into the thick of the divisional race. In the Pacificwe will have 4-4 Oakland visiting 3-5 Seattle, with the Dragons hoping they can get back into the hunt in a division where no team has a winning record. 3-5 LA will be in Las Vegas, where even at 2-6 the Thunder are not out of it. Denver will be in Texas hoping to hold off both the Gamblers and Wranglers by beating up on the Outlaws. In the South, Birmingham needs a win to get back into the mix, but traveling to Nashville is no easy task. New Orleans is at home against a 1-7 Memphis squad that is just trying to find some silver lining in a very cloudy season.
In the East, we have some interesting inter-divisional games, headed up by some regional but not divisional rivalries as New Jersey hosts Boston and Pittsburgh visits Philadelphia to face the Stars. Perhaps the best game on the Eastern Conference slate is 5-3 Ohio at 5-3 Washington. Neither can afford to lose this game, so expect it to be both intense and chippy. Tampa Bay has another tough test as they travel to Chicago to face the 6-2 Machine. That one is a true clash of styles as the high flying Bandit Ball offense faces one of the league’s most oppressive defenses. The final two games of the slate feature Jacksonville at Baltimore, with the Blitz showing signs of life on a 2-game win streak. Orlando is at Michigan in a game that both teams feel is winnable for them and which, while perhaps not the most engaging game, could be a very evenly-matched game.