Last week we predicted three of four Wild Card games would be won by the visiting, lower ranked team. Perhaps we were a bit ambitious in doing so, because in this week’s action three of four higher seed home teams proved victorious. That’s why they play the games, of course. Memphis, Washington, and Michigan hold court while Houston struggled to contain a very hot Seattle team. We will review it all, along with the first wave of league retirement announcements, which, perhaps significantly, do not include a certain injured QB, and talk about the early trade offers being made to Arizona for their star QB, this Week in the USFL.
BALTIMORE 27 WASHINGTON 30
For the second week in a row we had a rough and tumble, high scoring affair between two rival clubs so close they can share an airport. Baltimore and Washington essentially gave us a continuation of their Week 16 clash that determined the site of the game. Rather than Week 16’s M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, this game was held in RFK, but the result was again a narrow Federals win, but it did not always look that way.
The Federals dominated the first half, rushing out to a 20-0 lead at the break. With Kordell Stewart’s long runs shut down this week, they did it the old-fashioned way, a strong game from Deuce McCallister, and a defensive score. McCallister, who started the game with 87 yards in the first half, got the first TD on the board on a 7-yard run from the shotgun. Only 4 seconds later, after a touchback, the Feds got their second touchdown, when cornerback Ben Flowers guessed right on a hook route, jumped it and returned the ball untouched to the endzone for a pick-six.
Down by 3 scores at the half, Tom Coughlin was incredibly calm (especially for him) as he delivered the halftime speech and adjustments. The cool, calm approach seemed to work. Baltimore came out on fire in the second half. Roethlisberger connected with Tory Holt for a TD on the first possession of the half and 7 plays later, Adam Archuleta returned the pick-six favor, snagging a tipped ball out of the air and returning it 35 yards for the score. The sudden turnaround left Washington with only a 6-point lead. They finished out the 3rd quarter with a Doug Pelfrey field goal to make it a more comfortable 9-point lead, but that too would not hold.
Baltimore continued to dominate the second half, early in the 4th getting a field goal of their own to pull the Federals’ lead back down to 6, and then Stewart made his own bad throw (the first pick really being on receiver Eddie Kennison’s shoulders). Stewart forced a ball in to TE Derek Schouman, but did not account for LB A. J. Nicholson, who stepped in front of the ball and followed a convoy to the end zone for Baltimore’s 2nd defensive score. The Blitz, once down 20, were now on top 24-23 and the Federal faithful in RFK were in stunned silence.
Baltimore would add another field goal on their next possession, and Washington was down 4 with 4:55 to go. Momentum seemed to have swung the wrong way for the home team, but they still had one shot left. The Federals took the ball at their 23 and began working. Once again they relied on their run game, and against Baltimore’s zones, the run was effective. McCallister would gain 23 yards on the drive, and help set up a couple of effective play action throws to Branch and FB Charles Massey. Massey would also get a chance to be the game’s hero with a rare carry. After a defensive PI on CB Ken Lucas put the ball at the 1, Baltimore keyed in on McCallister, stuffing him on first and goal. 2nd and goal came and Washington lined up in the I, but instead of giving the ball to Deuce, Stewart gave the quick handoff to Massey and the big fullback, who had only 8 carries all season, plowed his way between the guard and tackle and in for the score. Washington had retaken the lead with 1:17 left.
Big Ben and the Blitz offense, down to only 1 timeout left, did their best to get in range for Martin Grammatica, but in the end, they asked their kicker to make a 55-yarder, and it was too much to ask. Washington survived and advanced.
SEATTLE 27 HOUSTON 14
The one upset we got right and it was barely an upset. Houston was only a 1-point favorite at home by gameday, and most were expecting exactly what we got, a Seattle team that had won 10 of 12 down the stretch dispatched a Houston club that has had trouble producing consistent offense all season. David Boston, once again, was the star of the game, collecting 123 yards on only 3 catches as his deep ball skills were once again on display. Boston’ 48-yard scoring catch put Seattle up 27-7 late in the third, all but killing any hopes the Gamblers had of a comeback.
Seattle, like Washington, had dominated the first half, building up a 17-0 lead on two Corey Dillon runs, and while Houston faired better in the second half, it was too little to catch up to the red hot Dragons. Byron Leftwich played longball, with only 14 pass attempts, but gaining 321 yards thanks to tosses like a 53-yarder to Stevens, his 48-yard score to Boston, and a 45-yarder to Nate Burleson. The bulk of the offensive plays were runs with either Dillon, Sproles or Kenny Watson, as the league’s trend towards more balance was clearly evident in this one.
Houston tried to counter, and Shaun Alexander had a solid day with 95-yards, but the Gamblers could not turn drives into points. Dan Carptenter missed on two field goals, including a 27-yarder that had the entire stadium groaning. Matt Hasselbeck threw the ball more than Leftwich, but could not connect on deeper routes or find the scoring tosses needed. The result was a comfortable win by the visiting Dragons and a chance to move on to face Oakland next week.
NEW ORLEANS 21 MEMPHIS 24
The rematch of New Orleans’s Week 15 one-point home win over Memphis was another hard-fought war of attrition between two division rivals who know each other well. Maybe it was home field advantage for the Showboats, or perhaps having a more experienced QB at the helm, but this time the Boats came out on top.
Despite Cadillac Williams and Maurice Smith combining for only 38 yards on the day, Memphis was still able to use the threat of the run to force New Orleans out of nickels sets and into a standard defense. That allowed Favre more options in the passing game, and while both offensive TDs for Memphis were short runs by Smith and Williams, it was the passing game, and the defense that got Memphis the win.
New Orleans scored first, a Matt Forte run on their opening drive, and at the half it was only 7-3, but a Fred Jackson TD early in the 3rd seemed to give the visiting Breakers a great position, up 14-3. Memphis would get the kickstarter in the form of a pick-6 from Tebucky Jones late in the 3rd, and, just like the Washington game, the pick-six proved pivotal. Perhaps a bit more cautious afterwards, New Orleans struggled in the 2nd half to put together drives. Memphis did not, and they scored twice in the 4th to flip the scoreboard and go up by 10 at 24-14. A late drive got New Orleans within 3, but when their onside kick with 23 seconds left failed, Favre and the Showboats could take the knee and celebrate a tough win, but a win nonetheless.
DENVER 7 MICHIGAN 30
With Matt Leinart sidelined, it was clear that Denver would need a superlative defensive game and a huge contribution from Moore and Benson to advance on the road in Michigan. They got neither. The Gold’s HB duo were held to only 52 total yards rushing, and the defense struggled all day to contain Michigan’s offense. Brian Griese, whose 2008 numbers did not compare with his strong 2007 season, looked like he was in 2007 form, completing 14 of 21 for 212 yards and 2 scores, while HB Justin Fargas had a rare 100-yard game, averaging 5.1 yards per carry as he rushed for 107 on 21 carries.
Michigan is trusting their run game more and more this year and that is producing more single coverage for Hines Ward and Laverneus Coles. In Sunday’s game, that coverage led to two Hines Ward TD’s as Michigan rolled to victory and set up a matchup with the Chicago Machine next week. Denver, undone by an unfortunate injury just weeks before the playoffs, was not able to play the game that had gotten them to 10-6, and would return home to evaluate what moves they wanted to make in the offseason.
And so, with three favorites winning, it sets up the following Divisional matchups: Seattle @ Oakland, Michigan @ Chicago, Washington @ Tampa Bay, and Memphis @ Philadelphia.
(A note on the Divisional round: Not sure why, but DraftDay Football 2021, the game used to simulate the USFL, seems to have issues distinguishing the #1 vs. #2 seeds. This is the second time it has misaligned the divisional rounds, with Seattle headed to #2 Oakland, when they should play #1 Chicago. Not much I can do about that, so we will just have to imagine that the USFL has some weird rule that would set up Seattle at Oakland instead of Chicago. Sorry, out of my control.)
Retirement Announcements Begin
With the first week of the postseason complete, we turn our attention to the pretty standard flurry of retirement announcements that follow the end of the regular season. We will go into more depth on the situation with Boston QB Drew Bledsoe below, but for now, all that needs to be said is that he was not among the retirees to announce this week. So who was?
Two veteran QB’s who had taken on backup roles stepped away as former Texas and Chicago starter Jeff George and longtime Mauler and Blitz backup Alex Van Pelt have announced their retirements. George had come back after a pseudo-retirement to help Las Vegas when McNair went down, but never saw game action.
Boston had two announcements, with center Bubba Miller and fullback Daimon Shelton both announcing. In Birmingham, LB John Mobley made the announcement. Expansion Charlotte saw both Chance McCarty and CB Tyrone Poole hang it up after one season with the club. Los Angeles kicker Steve Christie called it a career, as did center Gene McGuire. Several potential Hall of Fame nominees also declared this week, including Nashville CB Terrell Buckley, Orlando DT Pat Williams, and Portland OT Korey Stringer. Portland also lost WR Amani Toomer as the former Knight and Outlaw stepped away from the game after 12 seasons.
The team hit hardest by a spate of retirements was Texas, who saw WR Alex Van Dyke, FS Travares Tillman, C Joe Zelenka, and DE Demetrius Underwood all declare this week, creating some significant gaps for Coach Turner and the front office to fill.
Boston Hopes to Convince Bledsoe to Return
The one announcement we all expected did not happen, that of QB Drew Bledsoe. Now, this is not unusual, as not every player declares in the first week of the offseason, but Bledsoe had gone into the 2008 season declaring it his farewell tour, so the delay is interesting. Stories out of Boston have Coach Fox speaking with Bledsoe about legacy, and how he may not want to have his injury shortened, and disappointing season with the Cannons as the final chapter of his pro story.
Whether Fox’s conversations will have an impact on the 37-year-old QB remains to be seen, but fans of the Cannons who were saddened by the way Bledsoe’s season ended may still have some hope that the All-USFL quarterback may still have a swan song left in him. Of course, a return by Bledsoe means that once more Adrian McPherson is back on the bench. McPherson, a 3-year backup out of Syracuse, stepped in for Bledsoe this year and looked awfully good. He finished the year with a QBR of 98.6, which would have put him in the Top 5 among USFL QB’s had he had a larger portfolio. He threw for 12 TDs and only 3 picks in 7 games, topping 2,000 yards in half a season, a pace that would have had him right there with Brett Favre had he played 16 games. McPherson may well be the future of the Cannons at QB, but there is both sentimental and practical motivation behind having Bledsoe return one more time. We will see if either proves convincing as the injured QB looks ahead at a fall and winter of PT and decisions to be made.
Interest in Orton Grows
While Jake Plummer is clearly the QB story of the offseason, and plenty of attention will be paid to the rookie class of signal callers as well, Chicago backup Kyle Orton is also getting a lot of attention. The 3rd year QB out of Purdue stepped in midseason for the injured Brady Quinn and has also looked like a very viable starter for Chicago. His numbers may not be as gaudy as McPherson’s in Boston, but that could also be due to Chicago’s conservative approach. Orton threw for 1,635 yards and 10 touchdowns in his 7 starts, more than Brady Quinn had in both categories in his 9 starts this year.
So does Chicago have a QB controversy, or, alternatively, do they have a valuable asset that could fetch a high trade value once Jake Plummer is off the table. With at least 7-8 teams hoping to find a new QB this offseason, the feeding frenzy for Plummer could easily lead to a secondary market for a player like Orton, who marketed himself well in Chicago’s strong season. If Chicago feels comfortable with Quinn’s recovery and with alternatives at QB2 on their roster, they could very well be open to offers for Orton, and there certainly will be teams who will give the Purdue product a long look.
First Trade of the Season
We have our first offseason trade (that did not take long at all), and, no, it is not Jake Plummer. Las Vegas, which, despite a solid defense in other areas, finished the year dead last with only 23 sacks on the season. Coach Glanville wanted to address that issue quickly, and was willing to give up some talent to do it, sending backup center Roberto Garza and a 4th rounder to Birmingham for DE Antwan Odom.
Odom, who lines up opposite league leader Mike Rucker, had 11 sacks of his own in on of Birmingham’s only bright spots this year. The Stallions, in flux in so many ways, apparently could not pass up the player/pick combo that the Thunder offered. Las Vegas, which has a good amount of cap room, is likely not done and could be a very active player this offseason. Birmingham, who have a lot rebuilding to do, are now sitting on 10 picks in the 2009 open draft, including Orlando’s and New Jersey’s 3rd rounders and now Las Vegas’s 4th rounder. They need to get their New GM in place soon as it seems the Stallions will also have a very busy offseason.
Looking ahead to 4 big divisional games, we take a peak at the injury situation for all 8 clubs. Here is what we see.
MEM DE Reggie Torbor O, OT Clement D
PHI DE Mathis Q, CB Ben Kelly P
Losing Torbor in last week’s game will not be a help to Memphis, but if Robert Matthis cannot go for Philly, that could be an even bigger concern.
MGN CB Greer IR, QB Stanton Q,
CHI QB B Quinn IR
No new injuries for either team, so this one will be about performance, not personnel.
WSH TE Kellen Davis O, TE H Miller O, DE G Spires, D, G Arron Sears Q
TBY LB Moreno IR, DT Glover D, DT Wyms P, WR Doering P
Tampa put Zeke Moreno on IR this week. That could be big. If Chris Doering also cannot go, then Tampa is seriously hindered. Washington is down to 2 TE’s on the roster, but are more concerned about Greg Spires’s ankle right now.
OAK WR D Jackson, P
SEA LB G Miles IR
Oakland is hoping that DeSean Jackson is a go on Sunday. His absence would impact both the offense and the return teams. Seattle found a way to cope without Miles last week, so we don’t see that as a major issue for them now.
New Jersey To Bring Back Former Jets Coach
It appears that the New Jersey Generals had a man in mind for their coaching vacancy, perhaps even before Romeo Crennel’s tenure officially ended. Only 8 days after Crennel’s last game as the Generals’ head coach, New Jersey held a press conference to announce a name very familiar to tri-state area football fans, former Philadelphia Eagle DB and New York Jets’ Head Coach Herm Edwards.
Edwards had led the Jets from 2001 through 2005, taking the club to the playoffs three times. In 2006 he was “traded” to the Kansas City Chiefs but lasted only 1 season in Kansas City before stepping down. He returns to the NY area with a big task in front of him, to rebuild a team that won a title only 2 years ago, but which has fallen about as far and fast as any team in recent memory. Edwards’ first task will almost certainly be to find an OC who can help him either develop Kevin Kolb into a viable starter or bring in a new starter this offseason. The run game also needs work as rookie Ray Rice struggled to take on the lead role this year, splitting time with James Jackson.
New Jersey was shut out twice this year, and failed to reach 10 points in 7 games. Their 10.0 PPG average was easily the worst in the league. Of course, Edwards, as a defensive minded coach will also want to address an aging defense that finished 25th in scoring and 22nd in yards allowed, but the offense is such a disaster that it will have to be a major focus for the former Eagles’ DB.
Atlanta Requests Interviews with Coordinators
The Atlanta Fire, moving on from inaugural coach Jay Gruden, have started their search for a new leader in earnest. During the bye week for both clubs, Atlanta interviewed DC Jim Tomsula of Philadelphia and OC Tom Ramsey of the Oakland Invaders. They are also hoping to speak with Memphis OC Turk Schonert, but will have to wait until the Showboats are done with postseason play.
The fact that the Fire are speaking with both offensive and defensive coaches tells us that they are simply playing a Best-Man-Available game with the position. They could use help on both sides of the ball, of course, but when you look at their season it seems clear as well that offense should be the bigger concern. The Fire defense ranked 8th in the league in both points allowed and yardage, which is awfully good for a 5-11 squad. The issue for Atlanta was the passing offense. With rookie Darren McFadden, they rated 6th in the league in rushing, but were only 27th of 28 teams in passing. Swapping from David Garrard to Tyler Thigpen, then having Garrard return only to get hurt, was a bit of a clusterfudge for Fire. Atlanta absolutely has to figure out their QB situation this year, and that may cause them to lean to the offensive side of the ball. In fact, while they let both head coach Jay Gruden and OC Ken Zampese go, they have, as of now, retained the services of defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, so it is very possible that working with Zimmer could be a condition for any new coach brought in.
Arizona also spoke with Tomasula last week, but have been somewhat mum on other potential candidates. Birmingham, the 4th team with an open position, is apparently working on bringing in a GM first and then will begin the head coach search.
Divisional playoffs are on tap. Here’s is our best guess at what to expect, but after a 2-2 record last week, maybe seek additional advice before putting down any money on this.
Saturday, July 5 @ 3pm EDT
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
This is a very interesting matchup. You have Brett Favre going against the top defense in the league. These two met in week 13 and the defenses clearly won out, with the Stars edging the Showboats 12-10 on 4 Mike Nugent Field Goals. We have to expect that both offenses will look better this week, with more on the line. Memphis will almost certainly focus on the passing game with Favre trying to connect with Robert Ferguson and Lee Evans to open up the Stars’ defense. Philadelphia will try to pressure Favre with Regan Upshaw on the edge, and on offense, expect a healthy rotation of 1,000 yard rusher, rookie Steve Slaton and undervalued change-of-pace back Michael Robinson. The key may actually be the play of veteran Kurt Warner. This has not been Warner’s best year, with a QB Rating of only 92.7, solid but not great, and a 17:10 TD:INT ratio.
OUR PICK: We think that in front of a boisterous home crowd, Philly will get the best out of Warner, a playoff veteran, and that may be enough to edge Memphis again. We pick Philly 24-20.
Saturday, July 5 @ 8pm EDT
Soldier Field, Chicago
Nothing like a divisional rivalry in the playoffs. The Panthers split their series with Chicago this year, both teams winning on the road. Michigan got a 20-17 win in Week 8 and Chicago evened up the set with a 23-16 win in Week 13 at Ford Field. What does this tell us? It tells us these two teams are neck and neck, and that even a loud home advantage for Chicago may not be a deciding factor. What could be the deciding factor is how each team defends the run. Michigan has developed a legitimate run game this year, for the first time in a long time. Justin Fargas went over 1,000 yards and Michigan also likes to sprinkle in Leon Washington. The combo rushed for nearly 2,000 yards this year and provides great cover for Brian Griese to use play action.
That strategy was practically invented by Chicago, which has been one of the league’s most consistent run-first offenses for years. Michael turner is the engine for the Machine, rushing for over 1,300 yards this year and making life easier for both Brady Quinn and now Kyle Orton. Orton will be under a lot of pressure in this game, so the more Chicago can run the better.
OUR PICK: This will be a good one, likely a very close one, and a lot will come down to which team makes fewer mistakes. We see this as a very tough game to call, and when that is the case we side with the home team. Chicago 19-17.
Sunday, July 6 @ 1pm EDT
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
These two teams did not meet this season, but they will this week in a classic clash of offense v. defense. Now, when we say that you might immediately think that this is going to be Washington’s defense against Tampa Bay’s offense, but you would be wrong. Washington finished the year with the #1 scoring offense in the league, thanks in large part to Kordell Stewart’s outstanding comeback year. Tampa Bay finished with the #1 scoring defense. We know, world is upside down, but so it is. The Bandits will try to balance their attack with Willis McGahee and a lot of short passes from Culpepper, while Washington will likely try to get Kordell Stewart on the outside of Tampa’s line and give him the option to run if needed. That has proven very effective this season.
OUR PICK: As much as we are impressed with Stewart’s 2008 campaign, we are not going to go against the Bandits, at home, with 2 weeks to prep. Tampa Bay 23-20.
Sunday, July 6 @ 5pm EDT
Oakland-Alameda Coliseum, Oakland
The final game of the week brings us another divisional rivalry, and one that has been very heated the past couple of years. Oakland beat Seattle by 14 in Week 1, but the Dragons got their revenge in Week 26, with a 26-7 beat down of the Invaders. The two return to Oakland for this game and we expect a very hotly contested game, perhaps a very chippy game. Seattle is strong on both sides of the ball, with the #3 scoring offense and the #5 scoring defense. Oakland counters with the #5 scoring offense and the #7 scoring defense. The key for us is that Oakland rushing attack, one averaging 128.5 yards per game. If they can get the ball rolling, and get both Ricky Williams and Jerious Norwood red zone carries, they can dominate, but if Seattle can contain them, then the Dragons have a real chance here to stay hot and advance one more round.
OUR PICK: Seattle has proven to be a truly dynamic team over the past two months, while Oakland has been steady throughout the year. We are going to give the edge to the home team here, but we are not feeling very confident about it. Oakland 27-25.