From fourteen it was down to eight, and after this weekend only four would appear in the Conference Title Games. We had low seeds, mid-seeds, and for the first time this playoff series, the top seeds all in action. So, did we get another week of major upsets. Not really. Three of four home favorites won, and the one who did not was a #6 seed facing a pretty evenly-matched #7 seed. So it was a week that restored some normality, despite the results leading to the #7 seed in the East heading to the title game to face the top seed.
In addition to a week of on-field action, which we will fully cover, it was also a week of big announcements on the player personnel side as last season's MVP as well as a 3-time MVP and the only QB to lead his team to back-to-back titles in league history, both announced their intention to retire from the game. We will have that headline story along with all the latest retirement and free agent declarations, but first, let's take a look at the action on the field form all four of our divisional round matchups.
NEW ORLEANS 28 PHILADELPHIA 21
The Breakers break out early and hold on to hold off the Stars. With both QBs in the game having similar games, each throwing for 3 scores, it came down to the run game and the Breakers got more production from their combo of Fred Jackson and Matt Forte (104 total yards) than Philadelphia did with Slaton and Robinson (46 total yards).
It was Jackson who got the ball rolling for the Breakers with a TD run as the 1st quarter was ending. New Orleans would go on to add 14 more points to take a commanding 21-0 lead at the half. Eli Manning connected with Dwayne Bowe and Early Doucet on back-to-back drives, including a 65-yard bomb for the third TD of the game. Philadelphia went into the half reeling.
They came out determined. Warner hit Terrell Owens with an opening drive TD to finally get the home team on the board. 6 minutes later it was Warner to HB Michael Robinson for a 2nd score and New Orleans was beginning to feel the pressure. As the 4th quarter started, Eli Manning got 7 back by connecting with Demetrius Byrd for his 3rd TD toss of the game and the Breakers were back up by 14. Philadelphia would get a Steve Slaton TD on a screen, but they would not get the equalizer, with a 4th and 14 pass on their final drive falling incomplete to give the Breakers another upset win and a ticket to the Conference Title Game.
CHICAGO 20 OAKLAND 27
The second divisional game saw a successful comeback as Oakland erased a 17-0 deficit against Chicago’s defense to win by 7. By the 13-minute mark of the 2nd quarter Chicago had established its lead, thanks to a TD pass from Quinn to Boldin (a midseason acquisition) and a sack, fumble, return by Anthony Weaver, taking advantage of a missed block and a big hit on Harrington.
But, unlike the New Orleans game, the Machine could not hold their lead through the half. Oakland roared back with 17 points of their own in the 2nd quarter to equalize the score by halftime. They started with a Hollis field goal before adding a 24-yard Hank Basket TD catch and then a last-minute Ricky Williams TD. Tied up at the half, the momentum had swung to the Invaders.
After a scoreless third quarter, Chicago opened the 4th with a field goal from Tim Seder. Oakland responded with one of their own, and it looked very much like this game was headed for overtime. But that was not to be. After being backed up near their own endzone, Chicago was just trying to get a few yards and punt the ball away with almost no time on the clock, but backup HB Maurice Clarett did not get the handoff cleanly from Brady Quinn and the ball hit the turf and rolled into the endzone. The ensuing scramble ended with a pile up, and at the bottom of the pile was Oakland LB Roosevelt Colvin with the ball. A defensive touchdown with 1:48 left to play changed the entire complexion of the final minutes of the game. Chicago desperately tried to get back downfield to get the equalizer but failed on back to back tosses from Quinn to Driver, turning the ball over on downs with 33 seconds left to play. Oakland moves on and will host the Western Conference Title Game next week.
BALTIMORE 13 BOSTON 23
No comeback in this one as Baltimore fell behind 13-0 and never led in this one. Boston got touchdowns from Joe Jurevicius and Chad Johnson. They added three field goals from league scoring leader Stephen Haushka and retained a 10-point lead throughout the game, matching each Baltimore score with one of their own.
Drew Bledsoe finished the game with 233 yards passing and 2 scores. Jurevicius was the lead receiver with 123 yards as Baltimore tried to shut down Chad Johnson, and largely succeeded (only 2 catches, though one was a 29-yard TD). Ben Roethlisberger came out of the game twice, complaining of migraines, but ended up finishing the game on the field. He would throw only 18 passes, completing 11, while backup Chris Simms went 9 of 17. The lack of consistency with rotating QBs was certainly a problem, but so was a Boston defense that recorded 5 sacks and held Baltimore to 1 of 13 on third down.
The Cannons now go on to face New Orleans in an unexpected Conference Final matchup next week. The two have not met this season.
DENVER 9 MICHIGAN 17
We expected this to be a matchup of the Michigan offense and the Denver defense, but it was Michigan’s D that was the star of the show. The Panther defense picked off Matt Leinart twice and sacked him another 3 times as Dener simply could not put the ball in the endzone. Denver’s D was also impressive, sackng Brian Griese 9 times, but the aggressive blitz scheme also meant that receivers were often in 1-on-1 coverage, allowing Griese to connect with Hines Ward for a 14-yard TD and a 65-yard backbreaking score.
Ward finished the game as the MVP, collecting 2 scores and 113 yards through the air, while Peerless Price had an amazing 12 receptions on 16 targets but only gained 68 yards.
Michigan will travel to Oakland next week hoping to defend their title as a road team in the Western Conference Championship. The Panthers hope to avenge a 22-10 loss in Oakland back in Week 8, while the Invaders hope a repeat outcome will send them to Baltimore and Summer Bowl 2009.
Which Story Do You Prefer?
We are down to four teams vying for a league title, and each comes with their own story. Do you prefer Michigan’s quest for back-to-back titles? Maybe you prefer the redemption story of Drew Bledsoe coming back after a season-ending injury in 2008 to give it one more try? How about Oakland, trying to win its first title since 1991, and their first Summer Bowl appearance since then as well? Or perhaps you want to go with the underdog story, the 7th seed New Orleans Breakers, hoping to defy the odds and win three road games to make the Summer Bowl.
All four are compelling, but not all are viewed equally by the bookmakers in Las Vegas or by the fans. Boston is a clear favorite over New Orleans, given a wide 10-point advantage in Vegas. Oakland and Michigan are closer, but the Invaders still get a 3-point edge. When you look at the odds of winning it all, Oakland is given the best shot at 4-1, while Boston at 6-1, Michigan at 8-1, and New Orleans at 14-1 trail. If you want to go for a bet on the playoff MVP, Drew Bledsoe is the favorite, followed by Ricky Williams, Brian Griese, and Chad Johnson. Looking for a weird bet, you can actually place money on the Summer Bowl coin flip, the temperature at gametime, or place a bet on which defender will score a touchdown (best money is on Oakland LB Roosevelt Colvin, but that is likely due to his score this week influencing action). A lot for our wagering fans to follow.
Three Time MVP Kerry Collins To Retire & Enter Broadcasting
It’s the end of an era in Columbus after three-time league MVP and two-time league champion Kerry Collins announced he was stepping away from the field and taking a job with FOX as a USFL and NCAA football broadcaster. Collins played 12 seasons with the Ohio Glory after coming out of Penn State and leaves the game as one of the greatest to ever play the position in the league. His rookie season in 1998 he started out with 4,309 yards passing and 25 TDs, losing Rookie of the Year to Randy Moss. He would never forget that moment, as it inspired him to even greater heights. By 2000, his third season, he was recognized as an All-USFL quarterback. Just one year later he won his first of three consecutive MVP awards. He would lead his team to an undefeated season in 2002 and he and the Glory became the only team to win back-to-back titles in the USFL with a repeat title in 2003. He retires as one of the most decorated players in league history, with 3 MVPs, 2 rings, and 9 All-USFL seasons.
Statistically, Collins matches up with some of the legends of the game. He went over 4,000 yards in his first 7 seasons, and over 5,000 in 2001, his first MVP year and a season that ranks just behind Troy Aikman’s 5,675-yard 1998 year as the second best yardage season in league history. His 52 TDs in 2003 are also second to that Aikman year (54 TDs) and his 2003 QB Rating of 143.6 is the all -time best. Collins actually holds the season QB Rating record for the best season as well as the 3rd best, 5th, 6th, 9th and 10th best of all time. That is 6 of the top 10 best seasons ever by a USFL QB. His career numbers are equally impressive. He ranks 4th all time in yardage behind Favre, Flutie, and Kelly, and 3rd behind only Favre and Kelly in touchdowns. His career QBR of 113.6 is the best all time.
Collins made the announcement of his retirement at Ohio Stadium, the site of so many of his amazing moments. Flanked by Head Coach Al Luginbill, fellow players and his wife, Collins tearfully announced that the time had come to move on. He will return to football as an analyst for the USFL in Spring 2010 and will also cover college games for FOX in the fall of 2010. For the Glory, the path forward now looks very different. They may decide to promote Chris Redman to the starting job, or they may make a move, but, as Coach Luginbill stated, there is time to make those decisions, now is the time to celebrate the amazing career of Kerry Collins.
Stewart Surprises Federals with Announcement
While Ohio saw the writing on the wall and may actually be relieved that Collins’s retirement is not triggering Joey Galloway and Eddie George to follow suit, at least not this year, in Washington, the announcement from QB Kordell Stewart of his retirement was not anticipated. Everyone from Coach Payton to his teammates, and certainly the fans, were shocked to see the announcement, first made via social media before a press conference was scheduled for Tuesday.
In the presser, Stewart highlighted his comeback from injury in 2008, but cited that injury, and concern for his long-term health as reasons why he felt the time was right to step away from the game. Stewart,who came to the Federals in 1995, has been the undisputed starter for the club since the 1997 season. Stewart retires with nearly every career passing record the Feds have, including being the team’s all-time leader in passing yards (36,780), pass attempts (5356), completions (3403) and passing TDs (224). Known for his ability to make plays with his legs as well as his arm, Stewart was an early adopter of run-pass options in the playbook. He led Washington to the playoffs 9 times, including a league title in 1997, his first full year as the starter. After a season-ending injury in 2007 put his career in jeopardy, he returned to action in 2008 and led Washington to an 11-5 record, earning League MVP accolades for his amazing comeback season. Stewart retires a 4-time All-USFL player and a serious contender for Hall of Fame recognition.
He leaves Washington in a bit of an unsettled situation. Behind hmi on the roster are only untested Arkansas State product Cleo Lemon and the “Hefty Lefty”, 280 lb Jared Lorenzen. The retirement of Stewart almost certainly puts Washington into the market for a starting QB, either through the draft, free agency, or a trade. With no high-value QB’s among Washington’s protected schools, their best option may be to try to acquire a veteran “transition” QB and hope to snag a young signal caller in 2011 or 2012. The 2011 Draft is looking loaded at the position, so a 1-year solution may be what the Feds are seeking this year. That could be Lemon, or it could be someone they acquire over the next few months.
Looking ahead to the two big games next week, there is little to report regarding new injuries. Several players have been upgraded from out to doubtful, doubtful to questionable, and questionable to probable, so that is good news, but we still expect some concerns around New Orleans’s offensive line and the absence of Leonard Renfro in the Michigan D-line.
BOS: WR Paul Hubbard (OUT)
NOR: OT Mark Tauscher (IR), TE Chris Cooley (OUT), OT Nate Dorsey (PROB),
G Paul Zakauskas PROB)
OAK: WR Plaxico Burress (IR), TE Joel Dreesen (DOU)
MGN: DT Leonard Renfro (DOU), C Jeff Faine (PROB)
Retirements & Free Agency after 2 Rounds of Playoffs
It has been a busy period for both retirement announcements as well as new names added to the free agency pool. The move from 14 playoff teams to a final 4 clubs means that there are 10 more teams whose unsigned players are released, and 10 more teams who have started to see some stars elect to retire, as Collins and Stewart highlight.
Others who have announced that they will not be returning for the 2010 season include Chicago DT Ted Washington, Denver CB Chike Okeafor, Houston guard Chris Naole and backup QB Damon Huard, Ohio tackle Tra Thomas, Orlando wideout Donte Stallworth, and Philadelphia guard Flozell Adams.
Among free agents, the list is even longer. Here is our quick rundown of the players whose contracts have expired and the newest free agents from the 10 eliminated playoff teams:
BALTIMORE: DE Jared Allen, LB James Farrior, CB Tyrone Bell, WR Marty Booker, HB Wasli Lundy
CHICAGO: CB Al Harris, G Solomon Page, QB Henry Burris, TE Aaron Shea, G Sean Mahan
DENVER: LB Kendrell Bell, SS Dexter Jackson, G Ben Hamilton, LB Joe Odom
HOUSTON: DT Richard Seymour, LB Sam Cowart, G Bill Ferrario, CB Tramon Williams
NASHVILLE: TE Bubba Franks, FS Bhawoh Jue, K Shayne Graham, G tre Johnson, CB Chidi Iwoma
OHIO: DE Vonnie Holliday, FB Michael Templeton, DE Carl Powell, CB DeShea Townsend, C Robert Outlaw
ORLANDO: HB Cedric Benson, G Scott Shaw, C Todd McClure
PHILADELPHIA: LB Paul Posluszny, WR Terrell Owens, HB Michael Robinson, LB Chris Gocong
PORTLAND: FS Terrance Kiel, TE Jabari Holloway, P Frank Whalen, G Anthony Oakley, QB Ken Dorsey
WASHINGTON: DT Anthony McFarland, DE Tim Crowder, DT Kenard Lang, WR Eddie Kennison, CB Rashad Bauman, WR Mike Williams
Some big names there, especially on defense and in the O-line. Expect a lot of money to be thrown the way of DE Jared Allen, LB Kendrell Bell, DT Richard Seymour, and DT Anthony McFarland, and that is exactly what these players and many others are hoping will be the case.
Dallas a Big Success, But Now What?
One of the stories of the year has to be the success that the temporary move of the Texas Outlaws to Dallas’s Cotton Bowl Stadium proved to be. The Outlaws, who struggled through a 5-9 season, did not struggle at all to attract fans to games in their adopted home. Texas averaged nearly 48,000 fans per game in Dallas, moving them into the top 5 in the league for the first time in several years. But, with the Outlaws committed to a return to San Antonio next season, taking advantage of the renovations to the Alamodome that required their move in the first place, what does this mean for the future of USFL football in Dallas.
There are several possible prospects we could see the USFL explore if they want to keep a strong presence in Big D. Some are easy add-ons, others could be quite controversial.
They could put a Summer Bowl in Dallas. It would be a first, to hold a Summer Bowl in a true neutral site, a non-USFL city. But it is not unheard of. After all Bowl games in college football make use of stadia that do not house top flight Division 1 programs. It is the event itself that sells tickets. It would be an easy setup to designate Dallas as a host city for the big game, with no impact on the regular season, league structure, and no risk for any existing franchise. Our analysis: Let’s make this happen.
The Outlaws could revive their “State of Texas” game, the tradition they started when they were forced to play in tiny Bobcat Stadium before the construction of the Alamodome was complete. Back then (Until 1998) the Outlaws would play one game a year in an alternative site within the state. One year it might be El Paso, another Ft. Worth, or Austin, or Dallas. So, if they want to keep the love flowing towards the Outlaws, one thing the league and the team could do would be to return to having 1 game a year away from San Antonio, and perhaps set up Dallas as a long term option, much like the Packers used to do with Milwaukee back in the day. The downside? Well, the obvious downside is one less home game for fans in San Antonio, but if that is balanced by a lower season ticket package, that might not be such a big deal. Another potential downside would be some level of complaint from other franchises, particularly Houston, which might feel that having a 2nd hub for the club provides the Outlaws with an unfair advantage over most other teams. We already hear about large-market/small-market disparities and about shared-stadium vs. exclusive stadium disparities. Adding a 2nd market for the Outlaws could be seen as another advantage not available to all clubs. Our take: It’s one game a year, and nothing is stopping Ohio from doing the same in Cleveland or LA from playing a game in San Diego. Besides, they are the Texas Outlaws, not the San Antonio Outlaws, so would this really be a big change monetarily?
Build Dallas up for an expansion club. Of course the Dallas market would love to have its own team, but there are a couple of obvious issues here. First is the league’s hesitation to expand again so soon after the 2006 and 2008 waves that added 4 more teams to the league. The USFL expanded quickly at first, adding teams in 1984 and 1987, but then waited 8 years before the 1995 expansion, and 11 more until this latest augmentation. No one really expects the USFL to consider expansion seriously until at least 2016, and likely later. The other big issue is one of fairness. Yes, Dallas showed up for the Outlaws, but there are other markets that would also be very interested in having a USFL presence, and who is to say that the Bandits would not sell out in Miami if they chose to play there, or the Machine in Indianapolis, the Express in San Diego, or the Gold in Salt Lake. Expansion is a tricky business, and you need to ensure not only that the market makes sense for the league, but that the ownership is fit and ready to go as well, something that has been a big issue for the Dallas-Fort Worth market in past rounds of expansion. Our take: Don’t rush expansion again and don’t give Dallas any special treatment. If they can put together a strong bid when the league is ready to expand, then they will get a team in a fair and appropriate way.
Allow or even encourage a team to relocated to Dallas. This is immediately controversial and for reasons that are obvious. No city wants to lose their team. No fanbase is ready to give up on the USFL just to allow another market to get a team quickly. Yes, there are franchises that are perhaps less successful than others, and there are stadiums in the league that are not optimal by any stretch, but we have seen what relocation does to cities, communities, and fanbases. We have seen it in Atlanta and St. Louis in the USFL, and we have seen it in Baltimore, Cleveland, Oakland, and St. Louis in the NFL. It is a major confidence-eroder for the league, creates anger among fans, and often leads to legal action as well. Could it still happen anyway? Sure. The right ownership, with the right dollar amount, could certainly sway a team to sell and relocate. If that were in the mix, the league would likely look for higher than usual assurances from the relocated team on both financial and ticket sales matters, but it would have to be a true disaster of a proposal for the league to prohibit a sale even if that sale meant that a club would move, especially if that move is form a mid-sized or smaller market to a big market like Dallas. Our Take: The league should try to avoid this possibility unless they truly see a particular club as not viable in its market. Right now that is not the case in any of the 28 markets, but we all know that money talks, and the risk is there that monied interests will see what Dallas was like this year as a USFL city, and will find a way to sway a current club towards greener pastures.
(Discussion of Dallas's options continues on our "Dallas Poll" page where you can vote for what you think should happen with the league and the city of Dallas, as well as enter the discussion on our message board.)
Two of the biggest games of the year and sadly being played in two of the worst stadiums in the league. Boston will host New Orleans in the cramped confines of BC’s Alumni Stadium, which means no more than 40,200 can attend, likely to produce some major scalping to be sure. Oakland hosts Michigan in the Oakland-Alameda Coliseum, a building that needed major investment 10 years ago and is generally viewed as one of the worst venues to see a game in the league. We should all expect to see a baseball diamond on the field as the A’s are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday games in Oakland before traveling to Cleveland on Friday. Stadium issues aside, the two games certainly present us with a very interesting set of matchups. The winners move on to Summer Bowl 2009 in Baltimore, but who will those winners be?
Sunday, July 26 @ 2pm ET on FOX
Alumni Stadium, Boston, MA
This is a classic David & Goliath matchup, and yet, the difference between 8-6 and 10-4 is not so huge. On paper Boston is the better team, that seems undeniable. And yet, New Orleans has had some big wins this year to get here, not the least of which was upending Nashville handily in the Wild Card game. New Orleans won 3 of 4 down the stretch and avenged their one loss by beating Nashville. They showed us their full potential in Week 13 when they crushed the Washington Federals 40-10, so they are very capable of putting together a big game.
That said, we have to go with Boston here. Not just because the offense has weapons all over the field, from Mendenhall in the backfield to Chad Johnson and Joe Jurevicius outside and James Whalen in the middle. This is a diversified offense with a savvy vet at the helm. The one weakness of the Cannon attack is that Bledsoe is not mobile, so a high pressure scheme can cause problems. But high pressure also produces higher risk for the secondary, and a QB like Bledsoe can take advantage of that. New Orleans is harder to read. They rely on a two back rotation of Matt Forte (370 yards in 2009) and Fred Jackson (689 yards). If one gets hot, they get the carries, otherwise both split carries, and both are solid receivers, so you cannot predict the play call based on the personnel on the field. Dwayne Bowe and Early Doucet are effective if somewhat inexperienced, especially in a high pressure title game scenario. Chris Cooley is out, and Shawn Nelson is not much of a receiver, so New Orleans will rely on more 3-receiver sets with either Jerome Pathon or Donnie Avery in the slot.
We think the Breakers will make it a game, at least through the half, but we expect Boston to come out on top, extending Drew Bledsoe’s comeback season all the way into the Summer Bowl.
Sunday, July 26 @ 7pm ET on ABC
Oakland-Alameda Coliseum, Oakland, CA
The number one and number two seeds clash in Oakland, a classic setup. The invaders got here thanks to a balance of the #3 scoring offense and the #2 scoring defense, giving them an average margin of victory of nearly 10 points per game. Michigan also has a 10 point margin of victory in their games, but that is simply due to their status as the #1 scoring offense in the league. Their defense is solid (11th in scoring, 18th in yards allowed), but not the kind of aggressive force that can take over a game. At least that is what we thought before they surprised us with a strong outing against Denver. We once again are looking at this game as primarily Michigan’s offense trying to outscheme Oakland’s defense, but it could also very much be a question of the Invader offense taking advantage of gaps or slip ups in the Michigan defense, something Denver could not exploit.
This is a tough game to predict, because these two teams are very evenly matched, and yet, when we started working through the scenarios, one thing kept coming up, the receivers of Michigan. Yes, Brian Griese has has an outstanding year, no disrespect to him, but he has options that most other QB’s simply don’t have. As much as Greg Jennings, DeSean Jackson, and Pierre Garçon have helped Oakland fans get over the bizarre Plaxico Burress situation, they are not putting up numbers in the same league as Hines Ward, Laverneus Coles, and TE Bennie Joppru. Matching up the top three options for the passing game of both clubs, we see Michigan with 3,134 yards receiving and 30 TDs vs. Oakland’s top three with 1,938 yards and only 15 TDs, that is basically 2 to 1 in both categories (ok, maybe 3-2 in yards), and that points to Michigan as a more explosive, more dangerous offense. We are going to pick the road team to win this one and the Panthers will get their chance to defend their title in the Summer Bowl, also a chance to become the first USFL club to win 4 titles.