--February 2, 2009
The USFL season will happen as a last-minute agreement between owners and the USFLPA players’ union has been reached. It will be a shortened season, but it will happen after all. Details below on the agreement and the impact on the season. We will also explore one of the most dynamic NFL-USFL transfer windows in recent memory, the latest free agency news and our top stories of the offseason. In the second half of our season preview we will look team by team at the biggest stories, most impactful departures, and most exciting new arrivals, followed by our best guess at what to expect from this most intriguing season of USFL football, a season we were not sure would happen at all.
USFL Lockout Ends, But Too Late to Save Entire Season
The USFL and USFLPA have settled on a CBA agreement and the lockout is now officially over, but the impact will be felt this season. The 11th hour agreement seems to be an instance where the owners have blinked, staring down a potential lost season of revenue during a very bad economy, one that could lead to several owners facing real financial woes. The Union will get the revenue share of 55% which has been their sticking point all year, the owners get some small concessions on rosters and practice squads, and an exemption for revenue directed towards stadium development funds, but overall this has to be considered a win for the USFLPA. What it is not is a win for the fans.
The league announced this week that in order to allow teams to complete even an abbreviated training camp and preseason, the USFL will be cancelling weeks 1-2 of the published regular season schedule. Camps will open immediately and run through mid-March, with only 1 preseason game to be played by each team. The regular season will begin with the Week 3 schedule on the weekend of April 3-5, marking the first time a USFL season did not begin in March. The league will run a 14-week season, retaining the final 14 weeks of the published schedule and the Summer Bowl in Baltimore on August 1st. There has been no word on whether teams with home games scheduled for weeks 1 or 2 will refund season ticket holders, although they are obligated to refund any single game tickets sold for those games.
Of course, as you might expect, the dropping of the first two weeks means different things to different teams. Some teams lose out on two home games, others two road games. Some will have an odd number of divisional games this year, while others will play a full slate of divisional matchups. In addition to the shortened season, the shift in calendar means that with a 3-week training camp and only 1 preseason game, teams that are installing new schemes, those with significant roster turnover, and those with new coaches in place, are at a disadvantage, and may suffer at least through the early weeks as their teams learn all that is required to develop as a unit. Just how this will play out once the games get started is anyone’s guess but expect some examples of sloppy play and disjointed offense in the opening games this April.
The CBA is expected to be ratified later this week, and does not impact the cap or any current contracts for the 2009 season, but should lead to a significant bump in cap room for 2010. Those teams that structured their new contracts (free agents, rookies, NFL imports) to bubble payments into 2010 or 2011 should benefit from the added cap space as their new signees no longer occupy as significant a portion of their allotted funds. For those players with contracts expiring this year, the greater cap level is almost certainly going to prove advantageous as they try to negotiate extensions or new contracts.
One final adjustment due to the new CBA as well as the delayed start to the season. The Owners have agreed to a 1-year trial period for a 14-team playoff, citing the shortened season and the likely chaos of the opening weeks, two additional playoff teams will be added for this season alone, with the option for the league to adopt a 14-team format moving forward in a league vote this September. The additional playoff teams now mean that only the #1 seed in each conference will receive a bye week, with the other two divisional champions and the 4 Wild Card teams in each conference playing their way into the Divisional round. So, more than ever, the #1 seed will be a coveted prize.
Bledsoe Returns for an Encore
It may have taken the better part of the offseason, but Cannon fans got what they were hoping for as Drew Bledsoe announced last week that he will return for the 2009 USFL season, his 8th in the league. Bledsoe was unable to make the announcement at Cannon facilities as the lockout was still in effect, but a short press conference at the Boston Athletic Assoc. headquarters he announced his plans to return, stating “I needed time to heal and to weigh the options before me, and I am now ready to return to the Cannons and the game.”
The move ends speculation on the Boston QB situation but may just begin debate on whether or not Bledsoe or 4th year backup Adrian McPherson should be under center. It may seem bizarre to question Bledsoe’s role as the starting QB, but last season there was a definite improvement in play when the younger, more mobile McPherson finished the season for the injured veteran. Many had seen the end of last year as a passing of the torch, though a completely involuntary one, as McPherson took over for the injured Bledsoe. Now the question turns to one of immediacy vs. long term strategy. Clearly Bledsoe is a short term option, meaning the pressure is on Boston to try to win now, while going with McPherson could be seen as the start of a longer term goal for growth and continued competitiveness.
USFL Raids NFL free agency heavily
The 2009 NFL-USFL Transfer Window may not be the most star-studded, but in volume it is one of the most impactful of all time, with more NFL players jumping to the USFL than we have seen since the early “mad rush” of the 1980’s. More than 50 players came over from the Fall to the Spring with a major wave of signings across both leagues. Admitedly a lot of the signings came from NFL practice squads and deep bench players, but that too will have an impact on the fall league and USFL depth as a whole. However, while there were not any superstar QB’s jumping leagues, there were certainly some big name players whose impact will be felt. Here is our rundown of the 12 most impactful USFL signings.
QB Kyle Boller (BIR): Boller was not Birmingham’s first choice. Not even their second choice, but he is the likely starter for the Stallions this year after a somewhat hasty exit from the NFL Ravens. The Cal product has some skills, but did not show great decision-making as a Raven. The Stallions have to hope that under the tutelage of Head Coach Mike Shanahan, he can develop into a solid option at the position.
HB J.J. Arrington (ATL): The Fire needed to diversify their run game, and bringing in a quality third down back means that they can swap out Darren McFadden in passing downs. Arrington could be a leading receiver for the Fire, and a big help to their new QB.
CB DeAngelo Hall (POR): The Stags get themselves a solid #2 corner and a potential special teams player in Hall. He won’t shut down a team’s #1, but he can be left on the #2 to allow safety coverage to shift to the other side of the field.
WR Malcolm Floyd (NSH): The Knights needed depth at wideout, and Floyd provides them with good ball skills and solid underneath route running. Not a 100-reception guy, but someone who can get open for Jay Cutler when the protection starts to fade.
WR Nate Washington (JAX): The former Steeler should fit in well alongside Rashaun Woods in Jacksonville. A straight line speed guy with solid skills and decent route running, Washington can help stretch the defense and provide Woods with his underneath gaps.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (NJ): A bit of an unknown, but one with a lot of potential. The master of the Wunderlick, Fitzpatrick may well be the smartest player in the league, but can he get more out of the New Jersey offense. We expect Kolb to start week 1, just to give Fitzgerald more time to learn the offense, but we see him as the eventual starter, coming over after an impressive 12-game run with the Bengals this past fall.
WR Terrell Owens (PHI): The Stars bring in a Diva, who may be on the downward slope of his career, but who is still a top level wideout who can make a difference alongside Steve Smith. Can you just imagine the banter on the field with those two at wideout? As long as the locker room does not become utter chaos, this could be a great move for Philly.
C Matt Birk (PHI): Another great find for the Stars, who needed a captain on that line to help coordinate both a revamped run game and protection for Kurt Warner. Birk is a leader and a solid lineman as well. He should help keep the front 5 for the Stars in line.
CB Nnamdi Asomugha (CHA): A very solid zone coverage corner who can also hold his own in man coverage. Asomugha should be a week one starter for the Monarchs and could find himself in the #1 corner position by season’s end.
QB David Carr (ARZ): We all knew Arizona had to do something after trading away Jake Plummer. They opt to sign Carr away from the NY Giants, where he lost his job midway through the 2008 season. Carr certainly has his detractors. He takes too many sacks and he has struggled with consistency, but of the free agent QBs available, he was clearly the one with the best pedigree and the best chance to step in on day one as a starter.
DT Albert Haynesworth (ORL): He may be a handful to manage off the field, but the best DT to become a free agent in a long time is an absolute wrecking ball on the field. Haynesworth will now form part of a D-line with DE Calais Campbell, giving Orlando a very tough front to handle. Will Orlando ride their D-line to a Southeast Division title?
OLB Terrell Suggs (NSH): The Nashville Knights land our #1 most impactful player, edge rusher and outside linebacker Terrell Suggs of the Baltimore Ravens signs on with Nashville and instantly creates problems for opposing offensive coordinators. Nashville was hoping to improve their pass rush capacity this year, and they now stand as a defense to fear with Suggs coming off the edge. A huge signing for the Knights.
Camps Open with Some Late Free Agents in Place
With camps about to open, there will be even more new faces in new places as a flurry of January free agent signings followed the USFL draft and rookie signing period. Several teams, seeing drafted talent land in the NFL have tried to fill gaps with veterans, leading to a flurry of activity across the league. Some clubs were able to resign their own players, with examples ranging from QB Jeff Garcia in LA, halfback Kevin Faulk returning to Houston, DE Eddie Freeman in St. Louis, and C Ben Claxton to Arizona. Other clubs brought in new faces to build their rosters. Among those notable signings, on offense we saw QB Chris Simms land in Baltimore to back up Ben Roethlisberger, WR Kassim Osgood will get a shot at the slot position in Arizona after leaving the Generals, New Jerey recovered by signing Santonio Holmes away from Ohio. Center was a popular position to reinforce, with Aaron Graham moving from Charlotte to Texas and Dereck Smith then joining Charlotte from the Gold. Others signed include WR Danny Farmer (MGN), takle Doug Nienhuis (MEM), guard Tre Johnson (NSH), and tackle Tre Stallings (JAX).
On defense, some of the bigger moves were LB A. J. Nicholson also joining the Monarchs. DeWayne Dotson leaves the Breaker LB group to join the Stallions in an intradivisional move. DT Igor Olshansky landed in Michigan, while Brandon Whiting moved from New Orleans to LA. Among others signed we have LB Shantee Orr (LV), LB Vernon Crawford (NOR), and CB Fabian Washngton (MGN).
Does Orton Trade Solve Fire QB Crisis?
The trade this week between Atlanta and Chicago was an absolute necessity for the Fire, and could be the key to their season, but will it be the last trade of the offseason? Chicago, who had been shopping QB Kyle Orton around for the better part of the past two months, kept coming up short of a deal, but only 4 days after Georgia QB Matt Stafford announced he would sign as the #1 overall pick to the NFL Detroit Lions, Atlanta jumped on the Orton offer and very quickly a deal was arranged. The former Purdue QB will join the Fire in camp this week, and in return, Chicago will receive two early round draft picks in the 2010 draft from the Fire, their 2nd and 3rd rounders to be exact.
Orton, who came in for an injured Brady Quinn last year and guided Chicago into the playoffs, now takes over as the presumptive starter for the Fire, though David Garrard is likely to be given a shot in camp as well. Much like Chicago, the Fire are a run-oriented offense, based around last year’s rookie back, Darren McFadden, but with ineffective play from both Garrard and Tyler Thigpen, it was clear a new direction was needed. The obvious preference of the Fire was to draft Matt Stafford in the Territorial Draft, and sign the UGA quarterback to a long term deal. But, Stafford opted for the NFL and Atlanta had to scramble to a Plan B. With NFL options Ryan Fitzpatrick and David Carr already signed by New Jersey and Arizona respectively, and with the only remaining Free Agent option being career backup Ray Lucas, there just were not a lot of options for the Fire. They reached out to Chicago, which had already tried to make a deal with both New Jersey and Birmingham, but failed both times. When Atlanta came calling, their demand for a 1st round pick quickly softened to allow the Fire to retain their 1st rounder in exchange for their next two picks.
And so the last of the QB dominoes has fallen, we think we now have a good sense of all 28 potential starters, or at least the 28 QB battles going into camp. Of the teams with new names on the depth chart, the question now becomes whether or not they chose wisely.
Plummer ready to roll the dice in Vegas
When the news of the USFL lockout coming to an end broke, one of the first to respond was new Las Vegas QB Jake Plummer. Speaking at a charity event in Flagstaff, Plummer was asked about the opening of camp and stated “I am stoked to get to camp. A new start, getting to know the guys and the system. I am ready to get back to football.” That sounds like an enthusiastic QB to us, something fans of the Thunder must be happy to hear. Plummer joins a Thunder squad that barely missed the playoffs last year as they dealt with health issues for starter Steve McNair and backup Tony Banks. Now, with McNair retired, and a lot of draft and personnel collateral headed to the Arizona Wranglers, Jake Plummer is their new starter and the hope of the Thunder making the postseason in Las Vegas (a first) is renewed.
Plummer will have a pretty talented team around him, though there are a lot of new parts. HB Marshawn Lynch is clearly the main man in Sin City, but with Plummer and a refreshed receiving corps led by Matthew Hatchette and featuring NFL import Sam Hurd, slot man Troy Williamson, and speedster Kahlil Hill, Plummer hopes to elevate the Thunder to heights they have not seen since relocating from Portland. The fact that he seems eager to get started is a great sign for the Thunder that they have a QB in Plummer who is rejuvenated by the move and ready to roll the dice for his new team.
Ranking the Best Rosters in the USFL
As we prepare for the opening of camps and the delayed start to the USFL season, there is a lot of discussion of who got better this offseason and who may have gotten weaker. In our bullpen we often discussed this in terms of positional groups, and we thought we would share our assessment with you. So, here, for your consideration is our estimation of the three best and 2 worst teams in each position group. In each case we looked at overall quality (in some cases including backups) rather than 1 star player, so while we might say that Brett Favre gives Memphis a strong staring QB, for example, depth behind him may keep Memphis out of the Top 3 at the QB position. An imperfect metric, to be sure, but one that can reveal a lot about team preparedness for a long season ahead. We start with the Offenses and will finish with our three main defensive groupings (Line, Backers, and Secondary).
QUARTERBACK: Here we look at the quality of the starter as well as the depth behind him.
BOSTON: Bledsoe/McPherson/Martin
With Bledsoe back, and McPherson doing as well as he did last year, along with a savvy veteran still on the bench in Jaime Martin, Boston’s depth at QB may be unparalleled.
OHIO: Collins/Redman/Bollinger
A multiple MVP winner with perhaps the best backup QB in the game behind him, and now a younger backup with NFL credentials at the #3 spot. It is hard to do better than that.
TAMPA BAY: Culpepper/Gradkowski/Bomar
The key to Tampa Bay gaining the 3rd spot was the performance of Brad Gradkowski last year in the games when Culpepper was out. Rookie Rhett Bomar is a developmental option in the #3 slot, but showed flashes of talent at Stephen F. Austin.
but...
PITTSBURGH: Pickett/White/Palko
Maybe we are selling Pat White short here, but there are huge questions about whether or not his game translates to the pros, and we already know that Cody Pickett just has not developed into a consistent starter for the Maulers, so this group is not scaring anyone.
BIRMINGHAM: Boller/Wright/Dickenson
The Stallions missed out on Plummer, then could not find an option in the draft, and waited too long in the NFL transfer window, landing the clear 3rd option in Kyle Boller. Wright and Dickenson were not effective last year, so right now Stallion fans have to be scratching their heads.
HALFBACK: Who has the best 1-2 punch in the backfield?
OAKLAND: Williams & Norwood
We saw this last year in full action, with both Ricky Williams and Jerious Norwood rushing for 10+ touchdowns. They just get the job done. Williams is the engine and very often Norwood acts as the change of pace or even the finisher down in the red zone. A great option for the Invaders.
WASHINGTON: McCallister & Smart
For several years, Deuce has been doing it all, but now, after acquiring Rod Smart in free agency, there is an option behind him, an option who can be dangerous in his own right.
ORLANDO: Moreno & Benson (Davenport & Hester)
Two offseason acquisitions, rookie Knowshon Moreno and former Gold “bust” Cedric Benson transfrorm Orlando from a question mark to an exclamation point. They have 4 legitimate backs, each with their own style and strengths. While we expect Moreno to be the lead back, having Benson available for short yardage, as well as pounders Hester and Davenport mean that Orlando can grind down defenses all day long.
but...
BIRMINGHAM: Jones & Woodhead
Are we picking on the Stallions? Maybe, but there is just a lot of potential but no production so far from the combo of Felix Jones and Danny Woodhead. The two have some talent, but it has not manifested into production, and Birmingham did nothing to add another option this offseason.
DENVER: Moore & Ringer
The Gold traded off Cedric Benson, but in Ringer they brought in a back very similar to Mewelde Moore, a back with quickness and moves, but not someone who can get the team the 1-2 yards needed on a key goalline or short yardage situation. That feels like a downgrade to us.
RECEIVERS: Whether it is 3-wide or two and a TE, the key to receiving groups is depth.
OHIO: Moss, Galloway & Alexander (With Walker & Pettigrew Added)
The Glory just keep investing in receivers, adding Javon Walker and Brandon Pettigrew to one of the best, if not the best triads in the league. Will the pieces click this year and produce a bounceback season for the Glory?
MEMPHIS: Ferguson, Lee & Rice (With Kliensasser added on)
We doubted Robert Ferguson as a true #1, but with Lee Evans opposite him, they form a deadly short & deep combo. Sidney Rice helps take advantage over the middle, and now, with Jim Kliensasser coming over in free agency, Brett Favre has 4 options on almost every play.
BOSTON: Johnson, Jurevicius, and Harvin
The bold move to jump up in the draft and sign Percy Harvin makes Boston’s wideout group one of the most dangerous in the league. We already know that Chad Johnson (formerly Ochocinco, and Johnson before that) is elite. Joe Jurevicius provides good balance opposite him, but Harvin brings the kind of quickness and big play ability that really puts Boston over the top.
but...
PITTSBURGH: Jackson, Jenkins, and Gaffney
At one point it looked like Pittsburgh was putting together a good young receiver group, but defections and hasty replacements have been a downgrade. Jackson is solid, but not a true #1, and the depth behind him is looking very shaky. A lot of ifs and not a lot of surefire performers in this group.
TEXAS: Colston, Marshall, & Crabtree
It is not that this group is known to be bad, it is just that they are unknown. Texas brings in a free agent (Marshall) and a highly touted rookie (Crabtree) to basically reinvent their WR group. With Danny Amendola in the slot, we are just not sure how these pieces fit together. Could be good, could be a disaster.
Offensive Lines: The big hog mollies. He who controls the line, controls the game.
DENVER: Terry, Hamilton, Flanagan, Claridge, and Clady
You may not recognize these names, but this is the only O-line in the league where every single member of the line is rated a B or higher by the USFL Scouting Combine. No superstars but a group that makes Denver efficient in the run and keeps Matt Leinart in the pocket.
LOS ANGELES: Ogden, Faneca, Kalil, Saveea, Pears
The left side of this line with Jonathan Ogden and Alan Faneca is just insane. The right side is solid, but they can just dominate half of the field with their LT and LG. That is a great thing to be able to say.
NEW ORLEANS: Tauscher, Mathis, Spencer, Zakauskas, Dorsey
Another underrated group, but one that can do it all, zone block, man up, pull, trap, you name it. It took a while for this group to gel, but last year they had it going on and we expect good things this year.
but...
NEW JERSEY: Brown, James, Wiegemann, Robinson, Jordan
We want to blame the horrible offense last year on bad QB play or a lack of a run game, but that may all be tied to a line that simply is not doing its job. Orlando Brown needs some help if the Generals want to keep their QB upright or want Ray Rice to find holes to run through.
ARIZONA: Kosier, Womack, Claxton, Holland, Ellis
He would never say it, but we are pretty sure that one of the reasons Jake Plummer wanted out of Arizona was that he got tired of running for his life in every game. The Wranglers cannot run the ball and have trouble protecting the passer. No wonder they are not winning games.
DEFENSIVE LINE: Stuff the run, rush the passer. Two key tasks a front 4 or front 3 have to be able to accomplish.
HOUSTON: Pitmann, Umenyiura, and Seymour
It has been a long time since Houston figured out that a 3-4 depended on 3 disruptive linemen, and they have had that for over a decade now, centered on Kavika Pitmann, but now with Umenyiura on the other side and the massive presence of Seymour in the middle, this is one nasty group.
CHICAGO: Washington, Wyms, Weaver, and Abiami
Anthony Weaver alone scares offensive coordinators. Add in the man-mountain that is Ted Washington, and now the Machine acquire Ellis Wyms as well? This seems almost unfair. Meanwhile Victor Abiami is developing into a very viable 2nd pass rusher. Chicago is stacked, with a Top 3 D-line and linebacker group.
MICHIGAN: Renfro, Little, and Kearse
This group has been totally rebuilt in only 2 seasons. They added Renfro and Jevon Kearse last year and got immediate results. This offseason they bring in Igor Olshansky to back up Renfro so they have the ability to rest the big guy and that will only make them better.
but...
OHIO: Ellis, Johnson, Powell and Holliday
For all the money Ohio throws at the receiving corps, you would think they would invest a bit in the D-line. Vonnie Holliday is not the player he once was, and he is still the best of the group. The Glory signed NFL veteran Tank Johnson, but we are not entirely sure that is an upgrade.
PORTLAND: Fisk, Gholston, Ekuban, and Dumervil
The Stags rely on team defense, in part because they just don’t have a superstar on their D yet. Elvis Dumervil underperformed last year and Jason Fisk is solid but not a disruptor inside, so inside pressure is just not happening. The Stags need to hit on either a truly disruptive DT or an elite edge rusher in the near future.
LINEBACKER: The ability to cover, blitz, and stuff the run all in one package. That is what teams want.
CHICAGO: Urlacher, Polley, & Boiman
There is no doubt that Brian Urlacher is one of the elite MLBs in the game, but what is often overlooked is how good Tommy Polley and Rocky Boiman are on the outside. Urlacher tends to rack up the tackles, but it is the combo that makes Chicago so rough to run against.
MICHIGAN: Merriman, Katzenmoyer, Ware and Thurman
The only 3-4 group in the Top 3, and a solid 4-man group to be sure. Merriman and Katzenmoyer fill gaps and stuff inside runs, while DeMarcus Ware and Odell Thurman pressure the QB and hold the edge.
JACKSONVILLE: Vrabel, Arrington, and Green
Mike Vrabel inside and J.J. Arrington outside are known commodities, while Barrett Green is an underappreciated clean up guy, who just always seems to be around the ball.
but...
BALTIMORE: Farrior, Crowell, and Gooden
For a pretty solid defense, the Blitz are quite shaky at linebacker. Farrior is a solid performer, but the depth is not there. NFL import Angelo Crowell had flashes in Buffalo, but never developed into a 3-down guy, and Tavares Gooden, backed by Cato June, is just not intimidating opposing offenses.
CHARLOTTE: Mayo, Maualaga, Fujita, and Davis
This may be a question of “too soon to tell”. Jerod Mayo had a good rookie year and Maualaga could be a good addition from the draft, but this is a group that we just don’t know yet. Even veteran Scott Fujita remains a bit of a hit & miss kind of guy, while Andra Davis is clearly on the tale end of his career and may get benched for recent signee A. J. Nicholson.
The Secondary: You want coverage, takeaways, and run support all from the same 4 guys. It’s a lot to ask.
TAMPA BAY: Rolle, Buchanon, Basheer, and Scott
The Bandits 14-2 record last year was largely on the defense, and it was the combination of ball hawking and big hits from this quartet in the secondary that got the job done. Samari Rolle is as tough to throw against as anyone, and the safety combo of Basheer and Bryan Scott is just murder on deep balls. Throw in Samari Rolles’ brother Antrel and you have a nasty nickel package.
PITTSBURGH: Surtain, Bly, Taylor, and Shields
The Maulers have one strength and it is this secondary grouping. Sean Taylor is just a beast in the middle of the field, and Patrick Surtain is a ballhawking corner who can shut down your best receiver. Dre Bly and Scott Shields are solid support as well, making this a strong 4-man group.
LOS ANGELES: Rogers-Cromartie, Hill, Polamalu, and Bing
DR-C had an outstanding rookie year, jumping up to the #1 corner position, which makes Renaldo Hill perhaps the best #2 corner in the league. Then you add the violent “in the box” presence of Troy Polamalu, and you have a lethal back 4.
but...
ST. LOUIS: McBride, Davis, Edwards, and Myers
When your rookie cornerback prospect (Vontae Davis) is considered the best player in the entire group and he has not even stepped into camp or been sized for his pads yet, you know you have issues.
PORTLAND: Manuel, Hall, Kiel, and Bierria
Look, they are an expansion team, so they just don’t have all the pieces yet. Signing DeAngelo Hall is a good step, and Bierria can be effective, but this group is not yet ready for prime time.
Next up, our team by team breakdowns and our always heartfelt, but so often way off base, predictions for the season.
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