2009 USFL Season Preview: Part 2-- Team Profiles

----February 2, 2009

We have explored some of the stories shaping the 2009 season, reviewed the impact of the recently concluded lockout, and presented the biggest Winter roster moves, signings, and NFL imports. Now it is time to look at how this will impact the 28 teams in the USFL as they head into camp and then on to the season. Will Memphis make a third straight appearance in the title game? Will Ohio and Boston rebound? Can Oakland, Baltimore, or Las Vegas get over the hump? There is a lot of optimism across the league, and a lot of hype, to be sure. We have a solid quarter of the league with new starters under center (if not Week 1, we expect by Week 7), some major NFL imports, and a rookie class with quite a reputation to live up to. How do we think it will shake out? And what could the year look like for your favorite club?

We will break down each club, division by division, and make our picks for where they could end up, reviewing along the way all the player movement that is shaping their rosters and the expected strengths and weaknesses for each club.

Last year the Pacific saw Oakland basically run in 1st place from the start to the finish. Las Vegas started strong but then faded, Seattle started horribly then got very hot down the stretch. Portland did better than expected in their first season, and Los Angeles just collapsed after a promising 2007. This year it still feels like a 3-team race, with Las Vegas and Seattle hoping they did enough to close the gap with the Invaders.

OAKLAND INVADERS (2008: 13-3, 1st in Pacific)

Head Coach: Dennis Green

System: Power Run, Vertical Passing, 4-3 Defense

Major Roster Changes: Oakland added two pieces that could be a boon to their offense, nabbing tackle Anthony Clement in free agency and WR Hank Basket as an NFL import. Their draft has yet to produce a starter, but guard Lance Louis and LB Kaluka Maiava should see some rotation.

Story to follow: Oakland was a low drama team this offseason, which is what you want from a team that won 13 games last year and made it to the Conference Title Game. Little has changed, except that Joey Harrington should have better protection this year with Clement on the roster. Basket will likely play a swing role, subbing for Burress, Jennings, and DeSean Jackson as needed. The goal for this year is to keep the pressure on the rest of the division and to get just a step further in the playoffs.

Outlook: The competition looks like it will be tougher this year, with both Las Vegas and Seattle likely to challenge the Invaders. We are not sure 13 wins is likely again, but 11 could be enough to win this division.

Las Vegas Thunder (2008: 9-7, 3rd in Pacific)

Head Coach: Jerry Glanville

System: Smashmouth offense, 3-4 Defense

Major Roster Changes: Steve McNair retired, but Las Vegas retained Tony Banks and then hit the jackpot by landing Jake Plummer to be their new offensive leader. They added depth at receiver by adding Sam Hurd from the Cowboys. The defense was also aided by the signing of former Cleveland Brown Santee Orr to the LB group. The draft was modest, with several picks lost to the Plummer trade, but HB Rashad Jennings from Liberty could prove to be a valuable addition as a 3rd down back. Las Vegas also was a major player in the trade market, not only sending Orlando Huff and 3 picks to Arizona in the Plummer deal, but also trading for G Chris Liwienksi and sending DE Antwan Odom to Birmingham for Center Roberto Garza. Both Liewinski and Garza are expected to start in Week 1.

Story to follow: Las Vegas has improved each of the past 3 years, but largely due to the defense. Now, with Plummer at the center, the pressure will be on for the offense to follow suit. The division title and a trip to the playoffs for the first time since relocating from Portland is the goal.

Outlook: Las Vegas is a bit of a media darling after the Plummer trade, and a hot pick to unseat Oakland and take command in the West. They are still a defensive-minded club that likes to run the ball, but with Plummer they have a capacity to mix things up that never really manifested with McNair at the helm.

Seattle Dragons (2008: 10-6, 2nd in Pacific)

Head Coach: Marvin Lewis

System: One back with Vertical Passing, 3-4 Hybrid Defense

Major Roster Changes: Seattle lost some contributors in WR Troy Walters (FA), G Paul McQuistan (FA), HB Kenny Watson (FA) though the bigger losses were in retirements from LB Godfrey Miles and OT Lomas Brown. They brought in Kenyatta Jones from LA to shore up the left side, signed Ladell Betts for some short yardage situations, and added NFL depth in the form of OT Jordan Gross and G Chris Kemoeatu. Their draft also helped the line depth with center A. Q. Shipley from Penn State. They also tried to address the hole at LB by signing Stanley Arnoux from Wake Forest and Maryland’s Moise Fokou. Neither will start to open the year, but provide depth to the group.

Story to follow: We seem to spend a lot of time talking about the #2 receiver position for the Dragons, and this year should be no different, with both Nate Burleson and Darnerien McCants likely to see snaps on the field opposite David Boston. If one of them can step up this year, Seattle could be a serious contender.

Outlook: With an improved offensive line, Seattle could be a factor on offense. The concern is the defense, which has not produced enough QB pressure or enough turnovers to make the Dragons an elite team. That will need to improve under Lewis’s tutelage or Seattle could be another early playoff victim once more.

Portland Stags (2008: 7-9, 4th in Pacific)

Head Coach: Rich Brooks

System: Pro Style Offense, Zone 4-3 Defense

Major Roster Changes: The Stags had signed some older vets in the expansion draft last year, so it is not a surprise that they saw a high number of retirements after year one. WR Amani Toomer, LB Barron Tanner, and especially LT Korey Stringer will be hard to replace. CB James Trapp headed to the NFL, and LB Ben Leber headed to Philadelphia in free agency. They did make some moves as well, bringing in 3 players from the NFL: CB DeAngelo Hall, C Geoff Hangartner, and DT Kedric Golston. Their draft saw their biggest coup, landing Ole Miss tackle Michael Oher, along with Nebraska LB Cody Glenn and Wisconsin LB Jonathan Casillas. Of the rookies, Oher will start at LT on day one, Golston is in the DT rotation in the 4-3, and Casillas is looking like a swing player at strong and weakside positions.

Story to follow: How quickly Michael Oher can adapt to the pro game may tell the story of the season for the Stags. Another year of playing together should help this squad, but they did lose some pretty important pieces, so a potential step backwards before they improve further is very possible.

Outlook: We see Portland as fitting somewhere in the 6–8-win range, which in a 14-week season now translates as 5-7 wins. That feels about right for this club.

Los Angeles Express (2008: 6-10, 5th in Pacific)

Head Coach: Hue Jackson

System: West Coast Offense, 4-3/3-4 Hybrid Defense

Major Roster Changes: A bad year led to a lot of departures last season. C Gene McGuire retired, DE Van Tuinei was lost to the NFL, and 4 significant contributors were either cut or left in free agency, including HB Ladell Betts, QB Jeff Lewis, DT Igor Olshansky, and RT Kenyatta Jones. The Express focused on the defense with their free agent signings, landing DT Brandon Whiting and DE Corey Sears from the Breakers, while boosting the offense with 3 NFL imports: OT Khalif Barnes, HB Maurice Morris, and kicker Connor Barth. The draft was the big story for the Express. LA used their territorial pick strength, and a lot of cash, to land two impressive Trojans, QB Mark Sanchez and LB Clay Matthews. They also snagged C Alex Mack from Cal, a draft that produced 3 potential starters, with Sanchez expected to be the Week 1 Starter at QB.

Story to follow: It has to be the arrival and “coronation” of Mark Sanchez as the starter. LA had success in 2007 with Seneca Wallace, but injury cost him most of last season and now he faces benching for a rookie. That could be an issue, or Wallace could step back and see if Sanchez is ready, just as the Express fans are doing.

Outlook: We are not sure if LA is ready to bounce back up. A rookie QB rarely leads to immediate success. However, with two outstanding rookies last year on defense, and the addition of Clay Matthews this year, Coach Jackson is building a defense that could be one of the league’s toughest. That often does lead to regular season success. If Sanchez can avoid some of the typical rookie QB pitfalls, this team could be a lot better than a basement dweller.

Last season Houston and Denver represented the division in the playoffs, with a season-ending injury to Matt Leinart killing any postseason hopes for the Gold. Texas won their final 3 games of the year to give them hope for 2009, while Arizona was just not good at all.

Houston Gamblers (2008: 11-5, 1st in Southwest)

Head Coach: Wade Phillips

System: West Coast Hybrid offense, Aggressive 4-3 Defense

Major Roster Changes: It took time, but Houston was very successful in retaining most of its free agents. SS Chad Cota went to the NFL, but Kevin Faulk resigned with the team. Houston dealt with Cota’s departure by trading with Las Vegas to acquire Corey Gaines, and then adding the best safety in the draft, Patrick Chung to the room. They also added CB Tramon Williams and WR Matt Jones to their club via the NFL.

Story to follow: Houston has made the playoffs five straight years under Wade Phillips, but they always seem to bow out almost right away. That has to change, but we are not seeing enough roster change to make that happen. They are still the favorite in one of the USFL’s weaker divisions, but the goal should be to surpass the stronger Pacific and Central Division teams, and we are not sure they have the tools to do that.

Outlook: This feels like another 3rd seed, mid-range team for the Gamblers. We just don’t see how they closed the gaps with some of the other clubs in the conference, even if they are still the top choice for a division title in the Southwest. 9-11 wins, and a #3 seed just feel like what we are looking at here.

Denver Gold (2008: 10-6, 2nd in Southwest)

Head Coach: Dick Jauron

System: Pro Style Offense, 4-3 Defense

Major Roster Changes: It was almost as if everyone forgot the Gold existed this offseason. The Gold neither lost players nor added any in the marketplace. Their only significant veteran addition was former Bengal DT Shaun Cody. They were a bit more active on the trading block, sending Curtis Benson to Orlando for HB Marion Barber and TE Daniel Graham. In the draft, the biggest surprise was the signing of Michigan State HB Javon Ringer. They did well to snag Nebraska guard Matt Slauson, who will see plenty of snaps this year, as well as signing a new kicker in FSU’s Graham Gano.

Story to follow: The question Gold fans are asking is if standing pat is good enough for this team. That is a very tough question to answer, and one that feels like the odds are against improvement. They, like Houston, are good enough to make the playoffs, but are they good enough to advance?

Outlook: Denver returned to the playoffs after a 2-year hiatus, but the injury to Matt Leinart meant that they were a shadow of their earlier selves by the Wild Card round. This year, if they can stay healthy, they absolutely can compete with Houston for the division title. Our big question is what happens after that.

Texas Outlaws (2008: 6-10, 3rd in Southwest)

Head Coach: Norv Turner

System: West Coast Hybrid Offense, 4-3 Defense

Major Roster Changes: Texas was the exact opposite of the Gold, seeing a lot of turnover this offseason. Gone are WR Muhsin Muhammad (Retire), WR Tim Dwight (FA), SS Lawyer Milloy (Retire), LB Vernon Crawford (FA), QB Chris Simms (FA), WR Freddie Solomon (NFL), HB Troy Davis (NFL), and 4 more retirees. That is a lot of folks no longer in the locker room, including most of the receiving corp. Texas began rebuilding by trading for WR Brandon Marshall and SS Terrance Holt, then signing a league-high 8 free agents, including WRs Ben Obomanu and Craphonso Thorpe, LB Jeff Ulbrich, TE Matt Chushing, OT Mo Collins, G Tuten Reyes, and HB Leon Johnson. They also used their cap room to add Aveion Cason, Chris Canty, and punter Hunter Smith from the NFL. Finally, the rebuild accelerated even further with draft picks like Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree and Tennessee DE Robert Ayers.

Story to follow: A lot of new faces as the team plays the season in Dallas. New city, new team, seems to be the motto this year. The big pieces are still there, HB T. J. Duckett, QB Joe Flacco, and a defense led by DTs Luis Castillo and Chris Hovan and LB’s Kailee Wong and Chad Greenway. Expect a lot of new starters this year, including DE Chris Canty and Rookie Robert Ayers, LB Jeff Ulbrich, and a WR group composed of rookie Michael Crabtree, last year’s top rookie, Danny Amendola, and former Monarch Brandon Marshall.

Outlook: The Outlaws will be an interesting story, with so many new faces, and calling the Cotton Bowl their temporary home. Their hope, we think, is to replicate what New Orleans did in 2006, when they played most of their post-Katrina season in Portland. If they can make a home away from home, they then have to blend all these new parts into a coherent whole. That feels like a tough task, especially in a shortened season. Four to six wins would be a good finish for the displaced Outlaws.

Arizona Wranglers (1-15, 5th in Pacific)

Head Coach: Jim Tomsula (NEW)

System: Pro Set Offense, 3-4 Hybrid defense

Major Roster Changes: In addition to a new HC in Tomsula, and a new OC in Danny White, the Wranglers traded a disgruntled Jake Plummer, replacing him, they hope, with NFL castoff David Carr. They sent Antonio Pittman to Baltimore for draft picks, and brought in HB Fred McAfee and WR Kassim Osgood through free agency. With several picks from Las Vegas, as well as the #1 overall pick, Arizona ended up signing a league high of 8 rookies. Of those, DE Larry English (NIU) appears to be the only one to crack the starting 22, but the others will certainly be called on over the course of the season.

Story to follow: It is a rebuild in the desert after winning only 3 games in the past 2 seasons. Coach Tomsula has to change the culture while he also rebuilds a roster that is low on consistency. He has talent at WR, but a lot will depend on the somewhat shaky O-line. David Carr started his career being sacked a lot in Houston, and now finds himself on another team with questionable protection.

Outlook: Arizona needs at least one more good offseason to build this roster and create something that will produce wins. We expect Tomsula will start with the defense and let Danny White work with Carr to try to salvage an offense that needs to make better use of Fitzgerald and Moss. 3-4 wins would be a good first step for this club.

Generally considered the strongest of the three Western Conference divisions, the Central is very much alive after Michigan won the league title last year as a Wild Card. Most pundits expect Ohio to rebound as they have added even more weapons for Kerry Collins, while both Chicago and Michigan have top flight defenses and enough offensive weapons to beat almost anyone head to head. Pittsburgh seems to be treading water, and is at risk of slipping to last if the St. Louis Skyhawks can finally develop some offensive consistency.

Chicago Machine (2008: 13-3, 1st in Central)

Head Coach: Marty Mornhinweg

System: Power Run & Play Action Offense, 4-3/3-4 Hybrid Defense

Major Roster Changes: Most of Chicago’s departures (HB Reno Mahe, WR Terrence Wilkens, FS Leomont Evans) were marginal contributors on the Machine roster. The loss of SS Eric Weddle is not in that category and is the hardest player to replace. Chicago is hoping that Oregon rookie Jairus Byrd can fill that spot. They also brought in Corey Gaines in Free Agency, but he is better slotted at free safety. Chicago’s draft also included a potential #2 receiver in Johnny Knox, who is raw, coming out of Abilene Christian, but has the one thing you cannot teach, speed.

Story to follow: Kyle Orton is gone, traded to Atlanta, so CFL veteran Henry Burris now backs up Brady Quinn. Quinn’s health and ability to stay healthy will be a major factor in the Machine’s success this year, but when we look at Chicago overall, we all turn to the defense as the key. The addition of free agent Ellis Wyms marks a potential shift to greater use of 4-3 formations, where he would line up alongside Ted Washington to potentially free up Anthony Weaver even more. Chicago has 3 very solid LB’s, but Beau Bell at the #4 (MLB) spot is a question, so the Machine may well mix more 4-3 in with their 3-4.

Outlook: The Machine were dominant last year, until they weren’t. They survived Brady Quinn’s injury during the regular season, but were taken advantage of in the playoffs, losing to division rival Michigan in their first game. They remain a highly motivated team, still seeking their first title, and that should help them in what could be a very tough division.

Michigan Panthers (2008: 11-5, 2nd in Central)

Head Coach: Dick LeBeau

System: West Coast Offense, 3-4 or 3-3-5 Defense

Major Roster Changes: Guard Chris Villarial (NFL), HB Musa Smith (FA), WR Danny Farmer (FA), OT Mo Collins (FA), and SS Mike Brown (FA) are gone. New to the squad are DT Igor Olshansky (FA) and rookies Andy Levitre (G), Asher Allen (CB), Demar Dotson (OT), and Nic Harris (S). Both Levitre and Harris are slotted to start for the 2008 Champions, as is Olshanksy at DT.

Story to follow: Michigan was considered something of a surprise champion last year, and the Panthers are not feeling the love, or the respect, this year. That could well motivate them to prove they are not a fluke, a source of energy that could do them well to avoid the usual post-championship lull that many teams face. How they come out of the gate in the first few weeks should tell us a lot.

Outlook: The Panthers on paper do not look like a team that should outpace Chicago and Ohio, but we thought that last year and they proved us wrong. If their run game remains strong, and if the defense can absorb the loss of Eric Weddle, they should do fine and once again compete for a playoff spot and a possible division title in the Central.

Ohio Glory (2008: 7-9, 3rd in Central)

Head Coach: Al Luginbill

System: Vertical Passing Offense, 3-3-5 Defense

Major Roster Changes: Ohio lost two important but undervalued pieces in guard Bill Ferrario and WR Santonio Holmes, both to free agency, but, as has been their style, they added more than they lost, especially when it comes to offensive weapons. Javon Walker, coming over from the Bulls, should slot right into Holmes’s role, while rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew is considered one of the most pro-ready prospects coming out this year. Adding LB James Laurinaitis in the T-Draft and signing NFL DT Tank Johnson are also potentially impactful moves, with both expected to start for the Glory.

Story to follow: Last year we were all expecting an offensive explosion that just never came. Randy Moss and Joey Galloway were seen as indefensible and yet somehow the Glory struggled. The question is whether a 2nd year with this combo, even as Galloway loses a step, will prove more dynamic. The additions of Walker and Pettigrew should give Ohio even more weapons. But will the offense rise to what we all expected last year?

Outlook: The other concern in Columbus is a defense that looks a bit shaky and a bit old. Adding James Laurinaitis is a good start for a youth movement, but Vonie Holliday, Carl Powell, Luther Ellis, Glenn Cadrez, and DeShea Townsend are all closing in on the ends of their careers and it showed last year. Ohio may need offensive explosiveness just to deal with some defensive gaps. We still think they have potential for 10+ wins, but they could well be just the 3rd best team in the division again.

Pittsburgh Maulers (2008: 7-9, 4th in Central)

Head Coach: Ron Rivera

System: Power Run Offense, 3-3-5 Defense

Major Roster Changes: The Maulers saw 5 players either retire or sign with the NFL, including kick returner Dante Hall, LB Dwayne Rudd, and two tackles (Anderson and McKenzie). They also lost QB Quincy Carter, HB Fred McAfee, and kicker Bill Grammatica to free agency. But, and this is big, they did what they absolutely had to do, resigning SS Sean Taylor to what is one of the best secondary groups in the league. They also may have upgraded in a couple of key offensive positions, adding OT Barrett Brooks, WR Jabar Gaffney and HB Kenny Watson in Free Agency. Their draft once gain was heavily on the defensive side, with LB Brian Cushing and DE Henry Melton among the signees, though the biggest name was the potential challenger to Cody Pickett at QB.

Story to follow: The QB situation is the clear #1 story in Pittsburgh this year. Fans have been crying that Cody Pickett’s lack of consistency has been holding back the Maulers, and now he will be challenged by the dual threat option of Pat White. White, who came out of a Run-Pass Option structure at West Virginia, will challenge Pickett, and could see some very early action in some plays designed to maximize his talents. Can he be a consistent passer, and if not, can his running skills suit the Mauler’s more conservative offensive scheme?

Outlook: The Maulers feel like a team that is stuck in neutral. The arrival of White is at least a sign that Coach Rivera is willing to try something new. How much he lets White be White, or whether White’s arrival will push Pickett to reach new heights will go a long way into determining if Pittsburgh can be competitive.

St. Louis Skyhawks (2008: 4-12, 5th in Central)

Head Coach: Doug Williams

System: Vertical Hybrid Offense, 4-3 Hybrid Defense

Major Roster Changes: Coach Williams had his first full offseason working with his GM to improve the Skyhawks, and overall added some important pieces, not the least of which is QB Josh Freeman out of K-State. The Draft also produced a potential Week 1 starter in CB Vontae Davis, a solid DT option in Mizzou’s Ziggy Wood, and depth across several other positions. In Free Agency St. Louis added Kenny Wright to the secondary and Jeb Terry on the O-line, but the most impactful addition may be the arrival of NFL DE Antonio Smith, expected to step in for Santana Dotson, who (unofficially) retired after 17 USFL seasons.

Story to follow: Williams still has faith in Jeff Blake, despite his 23 picks last year, and expects to start him in Week 1, but if the veteran cannot cure his issues in the passing game, all the scrambles will not matter and we could see Freeman under center by the end of the year.

Outlook: Williams improved St. Louis’s fortunes slightly last season, but a bigger gain is needed if they are going to close in on .500 this year. We are just not sure they have the horses to do it. Their run game is still a 3-headed mess, the defense feels like it is still talent-shy, and the receiving group needs to see improvement from Sinorice Moss and 2nd year wideout Jordy Nelson. Taylor Jacobs cannot be a 1-man show. We think St. Louis will continue to struggle in a very tough division, with 4-6 wins still a cap for them.

Memphis has been the class of the division since Favre came to town, while Birmingham has been in the basement since he left for the NFL. Nashville and New Orleans look ready to challenge the Showboats, especially with improved defensive squads for both teams. This could be a very tight division, although the Stallions still look like the weak sister after struggling to resolve their QB issue all offseason.

Memphis Showboats (2008: 10-6, 1st in South)

Head Coach: Jim Haslett

System: Power Run with Vertical Passing, 4-3/3-4 Hybrid defense

Major Roster Changes: The Showboats lost depth with the departures of CB Wendell Davis, FB Theron Wilson, HB Lionel Gates, and WR Marquise Walker, but the loss of RT Anthony Clement is the change that Brett Favre needs to worry about. He tends to get sacked quite a bit even with a strong line, but without Clement, the Showboats could struggle with more aggressive defenses. They did add a safety valve for Favre in TE Jim Kliensasser, and the defense should improve with the additions of NFL veterans Keiwan Ratliff and Jarrad Page to the secondary.

Story to follow: Memphis’s draft was largely unimpressive, but the arrival of HB Shonn Greene could give the showboats the ability to rotate Cadillac Williams, and a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield could really take the pressure off of Favre to be the engine of the offense. That RT position will be a question mark, with journeyman Clint Oldenberg stepping in for Clement. If he can hold his own, the Showboats could remain a powerful offense to deal with.

Outlook: We like Memphis to hold on and win the division again, but it will be a tougher slog than in the past couple of years. It feels like both the Knights and Breakers have made gains. If Coach Haslett’s squad is not careful, they could take a tumble in what is a tougher division than in past years.

New Orleans Breakers (2008: 9-7, 2nd in South)

Head Coach: Mike Nolan

System: West Coast offense, 3-4 Defense

Major Roster Changes: The Breakers took a couple of significant hits in free agency, losing TE Matt Cushing to the Outlaws, and both DT Brandon Whiting and DE Corey Sears to the LA Express. The addition of Israel Ifeanyi from the Bulls certainly helps on the D-line, and the NFL signing of safety Corey Chavous is also a great addition. The Breakers also hope that rookie Ricky Jean-Francois from LSU will be an immediate plug and play option at DT.

Story to follow: The key to the Breakers could well be the development of a very young WR group that started 2 rookies last year and 2nd year WR Dwayne Bowe. Can Bowe, Doucet, Avery and Pathon continue to grow into their roles and make life easier for Eli Manning? Can Matt Forte add even more of a receiving role into his HB slot?

Outlook: The Breakers have some very intriguing weapons on offense, and Eli Manning seems finally ready to truly be a leader of that squad. The Defense is also looking better, with Ifeanyi, Jean-Francois, and Chavous all being good additions. We are still unsure about a pretty unheralded LB group, but New Orleans might be on the right path to challenge Memphis with their youth movement.

Nashville Knights (2008: 6-10, 3rd in South)

Head Coach: Jim Johnson

System: Smash Mouth offense, 3-4 defense

Major Roster Changes: The retirements of Terrell Buckley, Grady Jackson, and Michael Barrow are big blows to a defense the Knights have come to rely on. And yet the Knights did not really add any veterans to the mix on the defensive side, with their biggest free agent signings being WR Troy Walters, QB Quincy Carter, and NFL receiver Malcolm Floyd. They did go for a big DT in Peria Jerry of Ole Miss in the draft, but he does not feel like an immediate impact player.

Story to follow: Attrition seems to be weakening Nashville’s defensive skill set, and the offense of Jay Cutler does not feel like the kind of squad that can sustain a playoff-bound team. Is last year’s 6-10 finish a sign of things to come for Coach Johnson’s squad? That is the concern in Music City as the Knights look like they might be losing a step.

Outlook: We still think there are enough pieces in place for Nashville to hang around .500, and if Jay Cutler can develop further, they could challenge, but we also fear that their window may be closing and they may be headed in the wrong direction.

Birmingham Stallions (2008: 2-14, 4th in South)

Head Coach: Mike Shanahan (NEW)

System: West Coast Hybrid, Zone Run Scheme, 3-4 defense

Major Roster Changes: In addition to a new head coach and QB, there is a lot of change in Birmingham on the roster, starting with the departures of CBs Michael Booker and Ken Irvin, LB John Mobley (retire), QB Jason Campbell (NFL), and TE Itula Mili. Of course, when you are 2-14, it is the arrivals and not the departures that fans care about. New Stallions this year include TE Roland Williams, LBs DeWayne Dotson and Robb Morris, DT John McCargo, CB Adolph Petrie, and, most notably, QB Kyle Boller. The draft included an unexpected drop out of the 1st round (trade with Boston), but plenty of players, including NC State HB Andre Brown, Alabama S Rashad Johnson, DE Jarius Wynn from Georgia, and QB-turned-WR Julian Edelman of Kent State.

Story to follow: The arrival of Mike Shanahan, a 2-time Super Bowl winner with the Denver Broncos has Stallion fans hoping a quick change of culture is on the way. Had they been able to land Jake Plummer, they might feel even better, but missing out on both Plummer and Orton means they had to do something, and Kyle Boller is that something. Is that enough?

Outlook: The Stallions hit rock bottom in 2008. The road back will not be a quick one. Shanahan will build a culture in Birmingham, and will bring some new ideas to the club, but we are just not sure the roster is there yet to actually turn his vision into a winning team.

Last season the Tampa Bay Bandits surprised everyone, demolishing the division on their way to a 14-2 record. Was that a fluke, or is Tampa Bay ready to dominate again? Their top competition will likely be either Orlando or Jacksonville, though there is a sense that the window may be closing on the Bulls. Charlotte and Atlanta are expected to bring up the rear, but just how close to going over .500 each is can be up for debate. The Monarchs went 7-9 in their first year, and could be even better. Atlanta may have solved their QB issue with Kyle Orton coming over from Chicago, and their defense is solid. This could be a very interesting division to monitor.

Tampa Bay Bandits (2008: 14-2, 1st in Southeast)

Head Coach: Steve Spurrier

System: Vertical passing game, 4-3 zone defense

Major Roster Changes: The biggest loss for the Bandits is likely DT Ellis Wyms, who is off to Chicago. They resigned Kevin Mitchell to a 1-year deal, and the other departures (Julius Jones, Brandon Merriweather) are not big impact losses. The only major free agent addition was All-USFL fullback Obafemi Ayanbadejo, which should help out McGahee and company in the run game. The draft saw a rare off year for the Florida schools, with the best T-Draft option being TE Jared Cook of South Carolina. The Bandits did take a shot at Sam Houston St. QB Rhett Bomar, who almost certainly will be stashed away as the #3.

Story to Follow: Not a lot of change from a 14-2 squad, so the question in Tampa Bay is whether or not the status quo will show that the Bandits truly are back or that their record last year was a bit of a fluke. Fourteen wins is not something any club should expect, but in what seems to be a slightly weak SE Division, 11-12 wins could very well be viable.

Outlook: We like Tampa Bay to once again be a contender for that top seed in the conference. They have perhaps the easiest path of any playoff team from last year, and they have not had major losses in free agency other than Wyms. If the defense remains as aggressive as last year, and if the offense can keep pace, this will be a team to contend with all year.

Orlando Renegades (2008: 6-10, 4th in Southeast)

Head Coach: Emmitt Thomas

System: Pro Style Offense, 4-3 Man Up defense

Major Roster Changes: While we were all obsessed with the QB shuffle this offseason, Orlando went out and made one of the biggest NFL signings in years, landing All-Pro DT Albert Haynesworth. Putting him alongside Calais Campbell makes Orlando instantly a defense to fear in the league. They also added LB Barrett Rudd through a trade with Denver, HB Cedric Benson in another, added S Atari Bigby and CB Leigh Bodden in two more NFL moves and finished by securing the kicker position with Blitz veteran Bill Grammatica. Oh, and did we mention they landed HB Knowshon Moreno in the draft? Basically, this is a team that is just going for it.

Story to Follow: The Renegades now have a defense that could be among the elite, and have overhauled their run game, with 4 backs on the roster (Moreno, Benson, Davenport, Hester). Expect a lot of power runs, play action, and controlling the tempo of the game. That appears to be the plan. With a somewhat dicey WR group (Michael Jenkins, Justin McCaerins, Donte Stallworth), this may be a plan of necessity, despite Drew Brees’s legendary accuracy.

Outlook: Orlando feels more like a 10 win team than a 10 loss team. They really made some changes and if they can keep all those new players on the field and away from the IR, they could be a real factor in this division.

Jacksonville Bulls (2008: 7-9, 2nd in Southeast)

Head Coach: Brad Childress

System: West Coast Offense, 3-3-5 Defense

Major Roster Changes: The Bulls’ offseason started off poorly, with WR Donald Hayes jumping to the NFL. They then lost DE Israel Ifeanyi to the Breakers and WR Javon Walker to the Glory. It was not at all what they wanted. They regrouped, first by strengthening their secondary by signing two new potential starters at safety, Chicago’s Eric Weddle and Michigan’s Mike Brown. These two leap into the starting lineup as an immediate upgrade. For their receiving room they started with Pittsburgh Steeler Nate Washington, signed during the transfer window, where they also found LB Rashad Jeanty from the Bengals. They then added Jericho Cothery to be their slot receiver, sending Dominic Raiola to Boston to get him. Finally, in the draft, Jacksonville added 2 DE’s, including Chris Baker of Hampton, and a potential stud at tackle in Alabama’s Andre Smith.

Story to Follow: The Bulls’ receiving group is going to be the key squad to focus on. Rashaun Woods is still there, but with two new players at the Flanker and Slot Receiver positions, there could be a steep learning curve in a shortened preseason. The man who could be the safety valve in this situation is TE Jason Whitten, who had a breakout year in 2007, when he came over from Pittsburgh and caught 61 passes. If the Bulls are going to put together a winning season, it may be Whitten who has to move from a solid option to the first option for this offense.

Outlook: We are not sure exactly what to make of the Bulls. They could rise up as Tampa Bay did last year, or they could drop below both Charlotte and Atlanta in a largely balanced division. We think the reality is they are right in the middle, sitting near .500 once again.

Charlotte Monarchs (2008: 7-9, 3rd in Southeast)

Head Coach: Jim Mora Jr.

System: Pro Style Offense, 4-3 Zone Defense

Major Roster Changes: Just like Portland, Charlotte saw several of its expansion draft veterans opt out after one year. CB Tyrone Poole and DE Chance McCarty have retired, Henry Burris is now in Chicago ,Jeff Ulbrich and Aaron Graham in Texas. But, with a lot of cap space available, the Monarchs continue to build a roster to compete in the division. They added LB A. J. Nicholson and center Dereck Smith in free agency, signed CB Nnamdi Asomugha from the Raiders, and traded to get DT Corey Redding. They also drafted well, landing WR Hakeem Nicks and TE Anthony Hill in the territorial draft before inking USC linebacker Rey Maualuga and Georgia Tech DE Michael Johnson in the Open Draft.

Story to Follow: We are watching the Monarch offense to see if it grows in its confidence in year two. QB Chris Weinke has some decent options in WRs D.J. Hackett, Stevie Johnson, and Az-Zahir Hakeem. He needs to find ways to get the ball to them, rather than dumping down to TE Dan Campbell as much as he did last year. He also needs to get help from Robert Edwards to force defenses to play the run. Weinke can be effective in play action, but is not as good when it the defense knows a pass is coming.

Outlook: Charlotte started well with a 7-win season. They could easily get to 7-7 this year in the shortened 14-week season, but we have also seen this before, with Atlanta dropping from their initial season to a significantly worse 2nd year. The Monarchs need to prepare for a long and tough year, and not assume that improvement is inevitable.

Atlanta Fire (2008: 5-11, 5th in Southeast)

Head Coach: Tom Ramsey (NEW)

System: Pro Style Offense, 3-3-5 Hybrid Defense

Major Roster Changes: Coach Ramsey inherits a very different club from the one that Jay Gruden left behind. The Fire have a new QB in former Machine signal caller Kyle Orton, they have a new left tackle in former Saint Zach Strief, new weapons in the run game in J. J. Arrington and Julius Jones, and one of the most dynamic playmakers in the slot after signing Ted Ginn Jr. away from the Blitz. On Defense they added SS Brandon Merriweather and LB Bart Scott. Their draft does not appear to have added any immediate impact players, but two rookie LBs, Clint Sintim and Dannell Ellerbe, should see some action in rotation with the starters.

Story to Follow: The task of building a competitive offense around Kyle Orton falls on first time head coach Tom Ramsey, himself a former USFL quarterback. Expect the Fire to rely heavily on Darren McFadden, but to also mix in Arrington and Jones as they build a run-first offense that keeps the pressure off Orton to carry the load.

Outlook: Atlanta’s defense has been solid for most of their existence, and the addition of a seasoned pro like Bart Scott to the D will certainly help them keep focus and avoid some of the mental breakdowns they had a season ago. If their defense can be Top 10 and the offense is not pathetic, then this Atlanta squad could rise quite a bit in the Southeast.

With the exception of the New Jersey Generals, this is a division where any team could leap up to #1 or drop to #4. Balance and a significant amount of talent across 4 teams means that this is likely to be the division with the most intense intra-divisional games, and one where the division winner is not known until the very final week of the year. Philadelphia won it by 2 games in 2008, but we think it will be even closer this season.

Washington Federals (2008: 11-5, 2nd in Northeast)

Head Coach: Sean Payton

System: Pro Style Offense, 4-3 Defense

Major Roster Changes: The Federals were lucky to have a very small free agent footprint this year, meaning that the team that got them back to the playoffs is largely intact, if not improved in this offseason. The two free agent losses of any note, safety Bob Sanders and LB Ike Reese, were both expected and accounted for. The additions were largely on offense, with HB Rod Smart and OT Vernon Carrey coming in free agency and QB Cleo Lemon the team’s lone NFL signing. In the draft Washington also added a QB in Michigan State’s Brian Hoyer, as well as some youth for the defense with Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry and safety Chip Vaughn both signing as T-Draft picks. TE Chase Coffman of Mizzou is the most notable Open Draft signee.

Story to Follow: We are keeping our eyes on rookie LB Aaron Curry, who has looked very polished on film. There is a good chance he finds his way onto the field as the alternate whenever Mark Simoneau, Cameron Wake, or Antonio Pierce need a breather.

Outlook: Washington was very solid on both sides of the ball last year, and they are hoping that small additions like Curry and HB Rod Smart make them just a bit more versatile. If they are, they could easily challenge for the division.

Philadelphia Stars (2008: 13-3, 1st in Northeast)

Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh

System: Pro Style Offense, 4-3 Defense

Major Roster Changes: Philadelphia lost some talent this offseason, with TE Roland Williams and FB Deon Dyer leaving in free agency, and the retirement onf bothReganUpshawandC Steve McKinney, but the Stars were also very active in the offseason, landing LB Ben Leber, HB Reno Mahe, and two of the bigger names in the NFL free agent pool in center Matt Birk and WR Terrell Owens. Owens returns to the USFL after 5 seasons in the NFL. In that time his personality and his reputation have grown quite a bit, so he could be a major factor in the Star offense, or a major distraction. In the draft, the Stars added some speed to their defense with LB Aaron Maybin of Penn State and some strength with DE Connor Barwin of Cincinnati.

Story to Follow: We are going to follow the Terrell Owens saga, and we do expect it to be a saga. He will line up opposite Steve Smith, another pretty big personality among USFL receivers, so don’t be surprised if we don’t see some pretty wild stories out of Philly this year.

Outlook: Despite the potential distraction Owens brings, the Stars look like a very solid team, and Coach Harbaugh has them poised to make another run at the division and the Eastern Conference title.

Baltimore Blitz (2008: 10—6, 3rd in Northeast)

Head Coach: Tom Coughlin

System: Power Run/ Play Action Offense, 4-3 Defense

Major Roster Changes: Losing Tedd Ginn Jr. and A. J. Nicholson in free agency will put a dent in Baltimore’s return to playoff form. Losing Obafemi Ayanbadejo may also prove to be a big issue for the Blitz, who rely so heavily on the run game. The Blitz did add some depth with QB Chris Simms set to back up Roethlisberger, and with LB Angelo Crowell coming over from the NFL Bills. The Blitz did not fare well in the draft, signing only 4 of their 10 draft picks and landing very little in immediate impact.

Story to Follow: We want to see if WR Darrius Heyward-Bey lives up to the hype. He is expected to move into the #2 spot, with Marty Booker moving to the slot. With Tory Holt the clear #1, Heyward-Bey could see a lot of single coverage, and that could be a huge boon for the rookie.

Outlook: The Blitz had their first 10-win season in this millennium in 2008 and are hoping to go even further this year. That could be tough as they don’t seem to have added as much as others in the offseason, but if the chips fall the right way, we could see the Blitz in the postseason again.

Boston Cannons (2008: 7-9, 4th in Northeast)

Head Coach: John Fox

System: Vertical Hybrid Offense, 4-3 Zone Defense

Major Roster Changes: While convincing Drew Bledsoe to give it one more year was clearly the biggest story for the Cannons this offseason, it was hardly the only one. Boston gave up a lot to trade into the Top 5 in the draft so they could nab speedster Percy Harvin, and they are hoping he can be a quick study and an immediate threat for their aerial attack. They sent Jerricho Cotchery to Jacksonville to land center Dominic Raiola, and then added 3 NFL starters during the transfer window. TE Robert Royal, DE C. J. Mosley, and kicker Steven Haushka all arrive in Boston expecting to be in the starting 22. Finally, Boston also added LB Ike Reese from the rival Federals, SS richCoady from St. Louis, and DT Henry Slay from the Stallions. Apparently the Cannons are hoping to add some backbone to their defense.

Story to Follow: The QB situation in Boston is fascinating. Drew Bledsoe was the clear #1 until his injury last year, but Adrian McPherson clearly outplayed him down the stretch. Bledsoe is back, but will he hold onto the starting position if things start to get a bit dicey? Or will Coach Fox move on to the younger, more mobile McPherson?

Outlook: Many want to imagine Boston bouncing back strong after a poor 2008 campaign, but we are not so sure that the Cannons are not on the precipice of a major renovation, with McPherson taking over for Bledsoe, and a lot of new faces taking on more important roles.

New Jersey Generals (2008: 2-14, 5th in Northeast)

Head Coach: Herm Edwards (NEW)

System: 3-Wide Pro Offense, 3-4 Defense

Major Roster Changes: The Generals wanted a facelift and they got one. The question is whether or not they got a botched one. New Jersey lost both starting guards in free agency, along with WR Kassim Osgood and DT Martin Chase. Center Jeremy Newberry is now in the NFL as well. And while New Jersey did not land Jake Plummer as we predicted, they did sign one of the more intriguing QB options available, former Bengal Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Harvard guy who busted the Wunderlich Test. They also brought in some speed in the form of WR Santonio Holmes, and may have locked down the middle of their D-line with the pick of B. J. Raji in the draft.

Story to Follow: A new regime for an old coach as Herm Edwards returns to the sidelines in the Big Apple (or Big Apple adjascent). Will his “can do” attitude help New Jersey return to glory or is this team too far away from their glory days to bring them back? Edwards, a former DB, wants to win with defense, but he needs to deal with an offense that was the model of futility in 2008, getting shut out twice and held under 14 points too often to count.

Outlook: We are skeptical that Ryan Fitzpatrick is the answer at QB. Yes, he had a good year in Cincinnati, but with little pressure on him. This will be very different. Coach Edwards also has to try to see if he can get more out of Rutgers product Ray Rice, whose rookie season was not exactly the stuff of legends. We think it will be a growing year, but a painful one, maybe 3-4 wins in 14 games.

SI’s Own Peter King Team Picks the USFL Divisions

We have looked at each team’s offseason and their biggest question, so now we call on Peter King, our resident football expert to tell us what he sees happening this spring and summer as the USFL plays a 14-game season, leading up to the playoffs and Summer Bowl 2009 in Baltimore.

Hello everyone, and welcome to another USFL season. Last year we saw quite a few surprises as Tampa Bay exceeded expectations and both Ohio and Boston failed to reach the heights we expected of them. It’s the reason preseason punditry has such a bad reputation, and, as they say “why they play the games.” So, what do we think will happen this year? We did not see Michigan as a potential champion last year, so could we perhaps be a bit more prescient as we look ahead to this year? With many teams bringing new quarterbacks on board, and 4 new head coaches, there is plenty of room for surprises, and, just like last year, it is likely we will see some teams improve after a rough start, as Seattle did after their 0-4 kickoff to the 2008 season, and we will see teams fade down the stretch, as happened to Nashville last year. Before I give you my picks for the 6 USFL Divisions and the eventual champion, let’s start with some potential movers as I look over the league.

Most Likely to Join the Playoff Crowd: Atlanta

I like what the Fire have done this year, adding Kyle Orton at QB, bolstering their offensive flexibility by bringing in Ted Ginn Jr., J. J. Arrington, and Julius Jones, and providing a bit more defensive muscle with three new LBs in camp. Their defense has been solid ever since they came back to the league in 2006, but now they have some real weapons on offense and could rise in a relatively weak Southeast Division.

Most Likely to Fall Below .500: Denver

The Gold always seem like a team that on paper should be 6-10 and yet somehow Coach Jauron has them in the playoff hunt. That is just good coaching, but the talent level is just not that great compared to many of the other Western Conference teams. We are concerned that Matt Leinart may not be the answer, that Peerless Price and the other receivers cannot take the roof off the defense, and that a HB duo of Maurice Morris and Mewelde Moore is too one dimensional. I, for one, suspect that Denver may be in for a dip this year.

Most Likely to Come On Late: Las Vegas

As much as fans in Sin City want to imagine Jake Plummer walking into the stadium and notching a W without much trouble, the truth is that it is going to take time for Plummer to get up to speed, adapt to a new system, and connect with his teammates. It does not help that he has been unable to have minicamps and other preseason “get to know you’s” with the Thunder offense during the lockout. Now, with a short camp and only 1 preseason game, Plummer is expected to revive a pretty lifeless Thunder offense right off the bat. That seems unlikely, but what we could see is the D sustain the Thunder at first and then the offense picks up in the 2nd half of the year.

Most Likely to Fade Out at Season’s End: Philadelphia

I expect the Stars to come out of the gate strong, but just as we saw last year, they could fade down the stretch. I say this not just because their defense tends to spend too much time on the field, but also because I am having trouble picturing Terrell Owens and Steve Smith staying on the same page over 4 months. At some point one or the other is going to feel undervalued, undertargeted, and misused in the offense, and that will lead to resentment, friction, and, knowing these two, blow ups in front of the media. That is your sign that the Stars are about to struggle, and it feels more like a “when” than an “if”.

So, who do I like? Well, let’s take a look at my predictions for the 6 divisions to find out.

NORTHEAST

BOSTON: 11-3*

I think last year was a fluke and Bledsoe goes out on top with this team.

WASHINGTON: 10-4*

The Federals were a surprise last year, this year they won’t surprise anyone.

BALTIMORE: 8-6

They are hoping to reach 10 wins again, but I suspect a step back this year.

PHILADELPHIA 7-7

I see the Stars struggling a bit with the expectation that they are the team to pick.

NEW JERSEY 4-10

Better than last year’s debacle, but still a long way off.

SOUTHEAST

TAMPA BAY 11-3*

The Bandit defense is strong, the offense can be just as good. A nice pairing.

ORLANDO 9-5*

The Renegades will start the year better than in 2009, and could challenge Tampa.

ATLANTA 9-5*

I think the Fire are close to being very dangerous, but a lot depends on Orton.

CHARLOTTE 7-7

Not bad for a 2nd year franchise, though their offense still feels underwhelming.

JACKSONVILLE 5-9

I could be wrong here, but I see them as another team headed the wrong way.

SOUTH

NEW ORLEANS 10-4*

Picking a bit of an upset at the top here, but choosing Memphis is too easy.

MEMPHIS 10-4*

Right there with the Breakers, and possibly a playoff run like last year.

NASHVILLE 6-8

The Knights just don’t feel like they are all there yet, and I am unsure about Cutler.

BIRMINGHAM 3-13

Another rough year in Alabama as Kyle Boller struggles to prove he is a starter.

CENTRAL

CHICAGO 12-2*

I know Michigan won the title, but the Machine just look more complete.

MICHIGAN 10-4*

The Panthers will be there when it counts, especially if the D improves more.

OHIO 7-7

I think the Old Gang is aging out of true competitiveness, even with the new faces.

PITTSBURGH 6-8

I am not sure Ron Rivera can get more out of this roster, which bodes ill for him.

ST. LOUIS 5-9

I like where they are headed, but Josh Freeman is not ready for prime time yet.

SOUTHWEST

HOUSTON 9-5*

The Gamblers just don’t seem much better than a 3rd seed to me, once again.

TEXAS 8-6*

I could see Texas rising even further if Flacco’s new receivers can step up.

DENVER 6-8

The Gold just feel like a team that has been overachieving and is on fumes now.

ARIZONA 4-10

They are better than last year, but is David Carr really the answer for this club?

PACIFIC

OAKLAND 12-2*

A real threat to win it all. A well-rounded team that can win in a variety of ways.

LAS VEGAS 9-5*

They may start a bit slow, but by season’s end they could be tough to beat.

SEATTLE 8-6*

The Dragons will be there all year, but Boston and Dillon are no spring chickens.

LOS ANGELES 5-9

Matt Sanchez needs more than Keyshawn to be successful. The D could surprise.

PORTLAND 5-9

I expect the 1st year euphoria to fade and the Stags to do so as well.

My pick for Summer Bowl 2008 is Tampa Bay topping Chicago, once again shattering the hopes of the Machine faithful as Chicago comes close once again. My MVP will be Ricky Williams, a rare non-QB to win the title as he comes close to 1,800 yards in 14 games. My Offensive Player of the Year will be Favre again, with new NFL arrival Terrell Suggs just edging Brian Urlacher for defensive POTY. Rookie of the year is a tough one, with three potential starting QBs coming out of the draft, but I think it won’t be any of them, but will be Knowshon Moreno in Orlando. If my picks are right, then Coach of the Year would go to Atlanta’s Tom Ramsey, though Norv Turner could sneak in there if the Outlaws jump up in the Southwest.

There you have it, now, let’s get these games kicked off to show everyone just how little I know.