February 2, 2011
Every offseason has a story, from expansion years to NFL poaching, draft day stars to free agent steals, there is always something that draws our attention back to the USFL each winter. This year that story is at the quarterback position. It seems half of the league is scrambling to find their man, a franchise player who can lead them to immediate success, and long-lasting competitiveness. In a league that began with Reaves, Hebert, Flutie and Kelly, and saw huge success for Heath Shuler, Brett Favre, Byron Leftwich, and Kerry Collins, the next generation is actively being sought out.
In some cases, it is making the deal to bring in a veteran, as Charlotte did with Jake Delhomme, in others it is all about the draft, particularly when a player emerges out of college with a huge exclamation point next to his name, as Cam Newton has this year. In others it is about matching the right man to the right system, as the Drew Brees saga has revealed. It is about jumping at chances, as Boston did in this year’s draft, making the move to get the other “sure fire” prospect away from the Stallions, or about stumbling to recover from a setback, as Ohio seems to be experiencing. It is about protecting what is yours, and finding those missing pieces, and in the USFL, that all begins with the QB, our focus in this, our second offseason report. We will discuss the trade of the year, an extremely rare swap of undisputed #1 QBs; the rise of Cam Newton; the impact his selection had on the rest of the draft; and the QB Chaos that ensued. We will recap each team’s draft, all the Winter free agency moves, and preview the best talent that may be available to USFL teams when the NFL-USFL window opens later this month. All that right here, right now.
Stunning Trade Sends Brees to New Orleans and Manning to Orlando
It was a deal that no one saw coming, but perhaps we should. Orlando had been shopping Drew Brees, their disgruntled QB, for months, seeking an avalanche of draft capital to send a former MVP off to a new team. With so many teams so desperate to acquire a top-of-the-line leader and passer, it seemed clear that someone would pay the high price the Renegades were asking. But no one expected that the final deal would be a team with a well-established QB, although one who has never really been fully received by the fanbase as elite, or that the trade would not be for a plethora of picks, but a swap of starters, with a 2-for-1 deal.
And yet, just 3 days before Christmas, that is exactly what we got, when the Renegades and Breakers announced one of the most intriguing and unforeseen player swaps in league history. Orlando sends Drew Brees to the New Orleans Breakers, and the Breakers provide Orlando with a bona fide starter with playoff credentials in Eli Manning. The deal sent both Manning and wideout Dwayne Bowe to the Renegades in return for the two-time MVP (2005 and 2007). Brees becomes the face of a new-look Breaker offense, and Orlando rebuilds around Manning, Bowe, and a reimagined receiving corp.
Prior to the announcement, New Orleans and a deal for Manning was just a pipe dream on a few Breaker fan sites, not a serious discussion among football analysts. The nation was fully prepared to hear that Brees would be headed to Boston, Memphis, or Ohio, not New Orleans. But, behind the scenes, the Breakers were working with Orlando management on a deal that would allow both teams to trade out a QB with some issues (Brees’s dissatisfaction and Manning’s nagging issues with New Orleans’s fanbase) without having to deal with the issues of developing a rookie, building a backup into a starter, or rehabilitating a QB down on himself. Both teams get QB’s who fully believe they are among the elite in the league, and whose stats can back that up. Both players get a chance to prove themselves once again, away from the naysayers and criticisms from their former teams.
In hindsight, it is a very logical, very balanced deal, one that could potentially help both teams live up to their own expectations and bust through in 2011. We are surprised we did not think of it earlier, as some fans did, but it is just so rare to see teams trade top level talent, one for one (or one for two in this case) that the idea that Orlando would land a bona fide franchise QB in trade for their 2-time MVP was just not on our radar. We will see if it ends up a good deal for both, and there will certainly be pressure on both quarterbacks to make an immediate impact, but at least in the preseason, what the Breakers and ‘Gades have delivered is a trade that awakens the possibilities moving forward.
Charlotte Gets Their Man
It took longer than the Monarchs would have liked, and they ended up spending perhaps a bit more than they had hoped, but by late November, Charlotte had their QB. The Monarchs signed former Memphis and Jacksonville starter, Jake Delhomme, to a 3-year deal. They had to beat out, and outbid, both Boston and Birmingham to do so, but they proved the team willing to offer the best combination of funding and on-field support to Delhomme. He will now move to the Queen City as the presumptive starter, though Chris Weinke is still on the Monarch roster.
Delhomme’s signing by Charlotte was in part due to the rise of Cam Newton, as his games over the fall kept impressing, Birmingham’s interest in Delhomme started to fade. Boston remained in the hunt until the end, but, as we will see, after losing out to Charlotte, the Cannons found their own path towards bringing in a QB that their fans can get excited about. For the Monarchs, and Head Coach Jim Mora Jr., it was about bringing in a known commodity, not taking a chance on a rookie, one who could emerge as a star, could fizzle out as a bust, or could opt to sign with the NFL at the cost of a high round draft pick.
Birmingham Drafts & Trades Locker, Creating Draft Day Frenzy
If the Brees-Manning trade was the talk of December, the skyrocketing rise of Cam Newton, bursting onto the national consciousness with an incredible season for Auburn, and becoming a darling of both USFL and NFL talent evaluators, became the story of January. Newton would finish his one and only year with the Auburn Tigers holding a national championship trophy, victors over Oregon in the NCAA National Title Game. Within 4 weeks he had become the #1 pick for the Birmingham Stallions in their Territorial Draft and the #1 overall pick of the Carolina Panthers of the NFL.
His selection by Birmingham would have a ripple effect that would run through the entire USFL draft, with teams jockeying for position to nab the other first round quarterbacks. Birmingham, holding the #1 overall pick in the open draft had offers from no fewer than 8 teams for their pick, but they did as many suspected once Newton was selected in the T-Draft, they drafted Jake Locker at #1 overall, and then started shopping the top-rated QB to the highest bidder.
The feeding frenzy during the first few picks of the draft was astounding. Ohio, holding the 2nd pick and praying that Birmingham would use their pick for a top-quality defender, tried to get the Stallions to make the simple 1-2 swap of picks. Birmingham declined the offer. When their card went up to the podium and Locker was named as the #1 overall pick, the calls into the War Room in Birmingham were immediate and constant. Ohio seemed panicked. Their war room had held out hope for a shot at Locker even as they planned for other potentialities. With the 2nd pick they went the safe route, choosing Alabama DT Marcell Dareus, a good pick but not nearly the level of need they had at quarterback. They would regroup, but at great cost, sending 3 draft picks, including next year’s #1 pick and this year’s 2nd rounder to jump back into the 1st round and select Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert at #13. They apparently had been so frustrated with their attempts to swap picks with Birmingham that they did not even attempt to make a deal for Locker now that he was on the market.
Sitting at #3, St. Louis had the #3 pick and no interest in Locker, but they did have multiple needs. They would end up moving down, swapping picks with Seattle, who jumped on the chance to nab their top-rated defender, Texas A&M’s Von Miller. LA went for a player they could have picked in the T-Draft but strategically skipped over, LT Tyron Smith of USC. That put #5 Memphis on the clock. The Showboats had already selected their preferred QB, Ryan Mallett, with one of their own T-Draft picks, but they were fielding calls from teams hoping to move up to #5, possibly to trade that pick to Birmingham (along with other collateral) to get a shot at Locker. But Memphis got word midway through their allotted time that a deal had been cut, and the teams hoping to move up to #5 withered away. They would select DE J. J. Watt with their pick.
By the time Memphis’s card went up front, a deal had already been cut. Boston, sitting at #7, would trade that 7th pick to Birmingham, along with two second rounders, this year’s and next, to obtain the rights to Jake Locker and begin negotiating with the Huskies’ QB. It turned out to be less than the Ohio Glory sent to New Jersey to move to #13 and land Gabbert, their clear 2nd choice. Birmingham would select WR A. J. Green with the #7 pick, hoping to provide Cam Newton with a weapon from the get-go.
By the end of the 1st round, all 6 of the top rated QB’s would be accounted for. Newton and Mallett going to the Stallions and Showboats in the T-Draft. Gabbert to Ohio at #13. Christian Ponder selected by Tampa Bay with pick #10, the Bandits hoping to pass the torch from Culpepper to the Seminole in a year or two. Colin Kaepernick, the Nevada dual threat player, was chosen by Oakland at #19, a move that has a lot to do with Joey Harrington’s medical situation and the concerns that the Invaders cannot trust that Bob Volek will lead them to victories should Harrington continue to have injury issues.
The final QB of the Group of 6, Andy Dalton, was expected to slide into the 2nd round, with most of the playoff teams not in the market for a QB but were a surprise selection at #25 by the Pittsburgh Maulers. Pittsburgh, which already spent a 1st round pick on Pat White 2 years ago, and who have seemed to settle on Cody Pickett as their man, were not seen as a likely candidate for one of the Group of 6 but felt the value for the pick was just too high, and the chance to develop Dalton without immediate pressure made it an ideal pick.
So now we see if all these gambits pay off. Newton was, as we stated, also the #1 pick of the Carolina Panthers, but Birmingham is hoping that loyalty to the region, as well as a huge bag of money, will convince the Auburn QB to stay in the state. Boston will begin wooing Jake Locker in earnest, hoping he will see more to work with as a Cannon than a Tennessee Copperhead. Ohio hopes to outbid or entice Blaine Gabbert away from the somewhat dysfunctional Jacksonville Jaguars. Tampa Bay hopes that Christian Ponder sees a move from Tallahassee to Tampa Bay as an opportunity to build on his regional brand. Oakland is in a Bay Area battle with the San Francisco 49ers to try to convince Colin Kaepernick which side of the Bay to call home, while Pittsburgh will pursue the redheaded cannon, Dalton, counting on their playoff status in 2010 and that pierogies and Iron City Beer are a better option than Skyline Chili, as they work to lure Dalton away from the NFL Bengals.
Trades Add Excitement to First Round of College Draft
While the Jake Locker saga was by far the most dramatic element of the USFL Open Draft, it was hardly the only wheeling and dealing done in the draft’s first round. The round saw no fewer than 9 picks change hands over the course of its 3-hour duration.
It began with St. Louis moving out of the #3 spot and giving Seattle their shot at Von Miller.
Then Boston made the deal that sent Locker’s rights to the Cannons and allowed Birmingham not only the chance to pick A. J. Green, but 2 more picks later on.
Boston traded 3 picks to New Jersey to get back into the QB hunt after Tampa Bay passed on Gabbert, landing the Generals’ 13th pick and taking the Mizzou QB.
Atlanta backed out of the #21 spot, trading down 2 picks and allowing Washington to get in ahead of the Machine and select DT Corey Liuget.
When Washington’s #23 pick, now held by Atlanta came up, the Fire traded down again, this time to the #26 pick of Nashville. The Knights had moved up 3 spots and jumped at their prime target, CB Aaron Wiliams of Texas. When Atlanta finally picked at #26 it was DT Marvin Austin of UNC that had his name called.
With all the swapping, later rounds were also affected as teams jumped all over the board. Birmingham, with both the #2 and #7 picks in the 2nd round, added even more talent, landing Idaho safety Shiloh Keo and Portland State TE Julius Thomas in the round.
The second round also saw the running backs finally come off the board, with Oakland selecting Va Tech’s Ryan Williams, Ohio tabbing OU’s DeMarco Murray, and Arizona jumping on LSU halfback Stevan Ridley. Even an unexpected HB pick came when Charlotte reached a bit for Eastern Washington HB Taiwan Jones.
The drop of the draft had to be WR Jonathan Baldwin of Pitt. Not selected with one of the Maulers’ three T-Draft picks, Baldwin was generally considered the 3rd best receiver behind Green and Jones, but he just kept sliding. Falling all the way out of the first round and into the 2nd, where he was selected by Tampa Bay as a possible protégé to Joey Galloway, their new veteran acquisition.
The reach of the draft may have been Taiwan Jones, but others might point to the 2nd round selection of wide receiver Cecil Shorts from tiny Mount Union College by the Las Vegas Thunder. Shorts, considered at best a 4th or 5th round pick went off the board before higher-rated receivers like Boise State’s Austin Pettis or San Diego State’s Vincent Brown, both taken in the 3rd.
We will have all the big picks, the top prospects, and the surprises in our team-by-team analysis of the draft in just a little bit, but the draft was only one element of the recent offseason player movements. Before we delve deeper, let’s look into the last few months of free agency, trades, and the upcoming NFL-USFL Transfer Window, with the potential for some big-name free agents out of the fall league now that their season has ended.
While the USFL and NFL Drafts occupied everyone’s attention in January, the preceding months had seen a steady flow of players back and forth across the USFL. While many of the biggest names were claimed in the first few weeks of the season, answers were found around many of the remaining big names as players signed deals all through the fall and into Winter. Returning to our list of the top free agents available after our October report, we can now say that most, though not all, of the higher rated free agents are now off the board and signed to new deals. Here are the new faces in new places to monitor as we enter the preseason and prepare for kickoff in March.
QB Jake Delhomme got his deal, and, as expected, he will enter camp as the anticipated starter in Charlotte. Delhomme signed a 3-year deal with the Monarchs in November, with Boston the other late contender. Boston would get their man in the draft, while Charlotte’s signing of Delhomme took them out of the rookie QB market.
HB Cedric Benson will find himself on his 4th team in 4 years, signing a 2-year deal with the Las Vegas Thunder to back up Marshawn Lynch. Fullback Chris Massey opted to stay at home, resigning with the Federals after more than 3 months on the market without an offer that met his demands. Two other backs, 33-year-old Kevin Faulk and former General R. J. Redmond have yet to find a new home.
Among the wideouts, after the initial frenzy that saw Galloway, Smith, Stevie Johnson, and McCants all find new homes, and saw Lee Evans and Javon Walker resign with their clubs, there has been little movement for wideouts left in the pool. Texas opted to sign slot receiver Roscoe Parrish, Orlando did the same, bringing in former Oakland slot receiver DeShaun Jackson. Philadelphia added Lance Moore for depth. LA made the boldest move, adding 35-year-old Joe Jurevicious to a receiving corps that already has Keyshawn Johnson and Randy Moss outside, hinting at the fact that they may intend to go deep on every play. Another veteran, Derrick Mason, found Charlotte to be his best option, so he will now be catching passes from another newcomer in Delhomme. Still on the market are Eddie Kennison, Antwan Randle-El, Anquon Boldin, Travis Taylor and Dedrick Ward.
We finally saw the run on offensive tackles that we had expected, with the bubble burst by Curtis Rinehart and his 3-year deal with Houston. Omar Cousins followed, signing with Pittsburgh, while Orlando landed former Gambler Mike Pearson. Mike Williams, the St. Louis LT, still out there waiting for the right offer. The only big name guard to sign after Pitts joined Texas was Ross Hochstein, who moves from Seattle to Tampa Bay.
Of the D-Linemen, we saw former Outlaw Aaron Kampman join the Generals to boost their pass rush. Arizona tabbed Andre Wadsworth, the former Cannon. Michigan went for Chris Baker, the 24-year old as a depth move, while DT John Thornton jumps from New Orleans to Philadelphia, where he will likely serve as a swing lineman for Coach Harbaugh. Still waiting for the right deal we have DE’s Marcellus Wiley, and Carl Powell, as well as DTs Alex Rubin, C. J. Moseley and Richard Coleman.
We saw quite a few linebackers moving around early in free agency, but the market seems to have dried up for 36-year-old Takeo Spikes and Kevin Mitchell, both hoping to get one more shot to play the game. Only two major signings after the initial push at the position, with Boston locking up former Atlanta star Corey Miller and Pittsburgh going for Jacksonville veteran Barret Green. Still out there to be signed are Denver’s Dat Nguyen, Philly’s Ryan Nece, Birmingham’s Nick Koutavides and the two wiley veterans we already named, Spikes and Mitchell.
In the secondary, the story among cornerbacks was Antonio Cromartie, who held out for over 3 months, apparently turning away several teams before signing a lucrative 3-year deal with the cap-space-rich Birmingham Stallions. The second rated CB, Jaimie Webster, remains available, while Breaker CB Billy Austin, whose numbers the past 2 seasons have been his best, has announced that he is retiring after dealing with ankle and knee issues for years. Among the safeties, we saw free safety Darrell Bing move from Boston to Portland, New Jersey’s Corey Fuller is now in Atlanta, while strong safety Pearson Prioleau finally came to an agreement to stay in Oakland with the Invaders. Another top safety target, 33-year old Reggie Tongue, remains unsigned, as does former Star Lance Schulters, though rumors have him in serious talks with his former club.
The only kickers to sign were placekicker Shayne Graham, who will be taking over for the retired Doug Pelfrey in Washington, and 36-year-old punter Mitch Berger, who joins the Skyhawks.
Our list of free agents is growing shorter, but there is still some talent out there as teams prepare to enter camp. With the NFL-USFL transfer window soon to open as well, this might be a time for USFL teams to put up or shut up, because some of these quality ballplayers may simply take the extended vacation until August and sign with the senior league.
NFL-USFL TRANSFER WINDOW PREVIEW
We are only a couple of weeks away from the reopening of the NFL-USFL transfer window, and, as we have seen for going on 2 decades now, it is this 2nd offseason window, with NFL contracts having just expired, where the USFL can make the most hay. Yes, the new timing of the windows means that some players may not see the field for the first few weeks of the season, but a boost after 2-3 weeks is very possible with the influx of NFL talent. But just what talent may be there for USFL teams to sign on? Here is our look at the top 20 NFL players that USFL teams should be considering.
DEFENSE
The 2011 free agent pool is not exactly a who’s who of All-Pro selections, but there are a few names to pay attention to as the USFL franchise get their late run at NFL talent. Perhaps the best available player is DE Cullen Jenkins of the Eagles, who seems ready to move on. Joining him in the D-line group we have Shaun Smith of Tennessee and Ronald Fields of the Chiefs. Another Chief, LB Brandon Siler, is an interesting prospect and one of the younger free agents available on defense. Another LB, Justin Durant of the Lions could be a good fit for a team looking for a pursuit backer. In the secondary, we like the look of Bills’ CB Drayton Florence, though he remains a bit rough around the edges.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Another group with a few solid options, and one name stands out. Steeler tackle Willie Colon has had some outstanding moments, but consistency has been his bugaboo. Alex Barron, last of the Patriots is another tackle who could be a top USFL target. On the inside, the two best options appear to be center Chris Morris, also from the Patsies, and guard Evan Mathis of the Eagles.
OFFENSIVE SKILL PLAYERS
These are the players that fans tend to get excited about, and in this year’s NFL pool, while we don’t have a LaDainian Tomlinson to watch for, we have some interesting options. The top name in the pool is Colts HB Joseph Addai. Addai has shown he can take over a game, but he has been erratic, and a bit injury prone, so he is a risk. Other HBs to watch are former Panther DeAngelo Williams, who is hoping for a comeback season after a rough year in 2010, and Bengals’ back LeRon McClain. An intriguing prospect at receiver is Brad Smith, a sort of “Slash” player who was a QB in college and can be used as a receiver, rusher, or even on trick plays as a passer. The other receiver worth a long look is Browns’ TE Daniel Fells, who is a very solid blocker with soft hands. He is not a speed burner by any stretch, but inside the redzone he could be a great target.
QUARTERBACKS
As we have seen in every phase of the offseason, QB remains the toughest position to fill and the most coveted. We have seen more than a few NFL quarterbacks make the leap to the USFL and thrive, including this year’s Offensive Player of the Year, Kurt Warner. From the 2011 crop of free agents, the two most intriguing are former Ram and Raven, Marc Bulger, and former Texas Longhorn star Vince Young. Young is an interesting case in that he has actually had something of a bounce back in the past year, and yet Tennessee let him loose. As for Bulger, his best years seem to be behind him. After 3 years in the USFL with Orlando and Atlanta, his game matured in the NFL with the Rams, but he struggled to maintain a consistent quality and his stint in Baltimore was more than a little disappointing. Is a return to the USFL a chance to redeem himself once again?
Outside of these two, the next best options are both young QB’s who have had limited chances to start, but who have shown some hints of potential in their few opportunities. Both Seahawk Tarvaris Jackson and former Jet and Redskin Kellen Clemons may be better fits for teams looking for a solid backup than a new starter. There are always plenty of teams looking for just that, so we would not be shocked to see one or both make the leap to the USFL and make a team’s roster just as the season begins.
Of course, the NFL-USFL Transfer window goes both directions, and we already listed some pretty big name free agents who are still unsigned in the USFL pool. Will NFL teams take a shot on some long-in-the-tooth vets like a Takeo Spikes, Ruben Brown, Kevin Mitchell, Brian Dawkins, or Marcellus Wiley, or will they favor youth and potential like we see in players still seeking their first post-rookie contract, players like LB Tim Crowder, HB Antonio Brown, DE John Anderson, or DE Quientin Moses. We won’t have to wait long to find out. The Transfer Window is set to open in 2 weeks, just as the USFL opens their preseason, and will extend through Week 2 of the spring league’s regular season.
2011 USFL DRAFT RECAP
So before we look at each team, a major caveat. The success or failure of each team’s draft is just as much about who they can sign and who they lose to the NFL as it is who they picked. Any team that can land their top 2-3 prospects did well, those whose top picks all go to the NFL did badly, it is just that simple, and the same is true of all 32 NFL teams as well. So, for the sake of our analysis, we are going to work from the assumption that the picks the teams made will all sign. We know that is not the case, but we can only study who they picked and say what we think about the prospect for a good draft based on that.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: DE Brooks Reed (Ariz)
FIRST ROUND PICK: DE Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: HB Stevan Ridley (LSU)—3rd Round
ANALYSIS: The Wranglers went for guards in two early rounds, with Wisconsin’s John Moffitt and Nebraska’s Keith Williams. Not bad to get a Badger and a Husker inside to push defenders around. We love the addition of Stevan Ridley as a potential complement to Tomlinson, and, if they can land their #1 pick, Purdue DE Ryan Kerrigan, this will be a very solid draft even with a pretty week T-Draft pool.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: LB Justin Houston (UGA)
FIRST ROUND PICK: OT Derek Sherrod (Miss St)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: HB Anthony Allen (Ga Tech)—5th Round
ANALYSIS: Trading down twice in the first round gave Atlanta plenty of picks over the course of the draft. They seem hopefull that they will land top T-Draft choice Justin Houston. They did well with their mid-round picks, with HB Anthony Allen and DE Markell Carter (Central Arkansa) our favorite picks.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: WR Torrey Smith (Maryland)
FIRST ROUND PICK: DE Robert Quinn (UNC)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: QB Tyrod Taylor (Va Tech)—4th Round
ANALYSIS: Getting a quality option like DE Robert Quinn with the 20th pick in the first round is a bit of a coup. Their T-Draft likely hinges on whether or not Torrey Smith will join the Blitz receiver group. They also took a flyer on Va Tech QB Tyrod Taylor in the 4th round. He could prove to be effective if given a set of plays, particularly on short yardage, where he could run or pass in ways that Big Ben just cannot.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: QB Cam Newton (Auburn)
FIRST ROUND PICK: WR A. J. Green (Georgia)—In trade with Boston
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: TE Julius Thomas (Por. St)—2nd
ANALYSIS: No way Alabama does not come out of this draft a much better team. Not only did they have 3 studs in the T-Draft (Newton, Fairley, and HB Mark Ingram), but they used their #1 overall pick to add more picks and still were able to draft A. J. Green at #7. The problem will be signing all the talent they picked, even with one of the biggest cap spaces available. Just the 3 T-Draft players could break the bank. We think Newton has to be the priority, with Fairley 2nd and Ingram 3rd, but they certainly will try to land all three and Green as well.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: TE Lance Kendricks (Wisc)
FIRST ROUND PICK: QB Jake Locker (Wash)—In Trade with Birmingham
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: LB J. T. Thomas (WVU)—3rd Round
ANALYSIS: They basically moved from #7 to #1 by trading for Jake Locker and giving up only their 1st, and 2 second rounders. That is a pretty good deal, and it gets them the QB that most teams were coveting. It meant having fewer picks in the draft, but quality over quantity for the Cannons. We like the pick of LB J. T. Thomas out of West Virginia as well as WR Ryan Whalen from Stanford, a good possession option.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: LB Bruce Carter (UNC)
FIRST ROUND PICK: C Mike Pouncey (Florida)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: HB Taiwan Jones (EWU)—2nd
ANALYSIS: Mike Pouncey is as reliable a pick as you can get, maybe a bit high at #9, but still a quality improvement for the Monarch line. If they can sign Carter out of UNC, that will be a boost to their defense, and, while perhaps drafted a bit soon, we think Taiwan Jones will offer some value on both offense and special teams.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: TE Kyle Rudolph (Notre Dame)
FIRST ROUND PICK: CB Aaron Williams (Texas)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: WR Austin Pettis (Boise)—3rd
ANALYSIS: The kind of draft that fans boo initially because the big names are not there, but may eventually come around on. Chicago went 1-2 with DBs, first CB Aaron Williams, then safety Da’Norris Searcy from UNC. They got their kicker in Kai Forbath out of UCLA late, and may have also added some depth at WR with Austin Pettis from Boise State, again, if they can sign them all.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: OT Nate Solder (Colorado)
FIRST ROUND PICK: C Stefen Wisniewski (Penn St.)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: DE Pernell McPhee (Miss St)—2nd
ANALYSIS: If they can sign both OT Nate Solder and C Stefen Wisniewski, the Denver line could be set for the next decade. This is going to make Javon Ringer and Matt Leinart very happy. Not a lot of skill players in the draft for Denver, though Nebraska WR Niles Paul could be a nice addition.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: WR Jeremy Kerley (TCU)
FIRST ROUND PICK: DT Phil Taylor (Baylor)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: TBD
ANALYSIS: Picking last is the downside of being the league champion, and, unsurprisingly, the result is that we don’ see a lot of big names in the draft for the Gamblers. Their best two picks may have come from their TCU connection in the T-Draft, OT Marcus Cannon and WR Jeremy Kerley. They picked two halfbacks late in the draft, but we don’t see either being the next Kevin Faulk.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: CB Marcus Gilchrist (Clemson)
FIRST ROUND PICK: S Jaiquawn Jarrett (Temple)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: LB K. J. Wright (Miss St)—2nd
ANALYSIS: If ever a team could have and should have taken a deal to trade down it was the Bulls. Yes, Jarrett is a solid prospect, but at #11 he was picked way too early. With all the QB frenzy, Jacksonville could have moved down several spots, maybe as low as the early 20’s and still gotten Jarrett. Instead they picked him at #11 and missed a chance to add more picks. They are hoping that T-Draft selection Da’Quan Bowers makes the move from Clemson to Duval County, and they may have gotten a good one in the 2nd round in WR K. J. Wright, but otherwise, their draft feels like a missed opportunity.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: CB Brandon Burton (Utah)
FIRST ROUND PICK: OT Marcus Gilbert (Florida)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: WR Aldrick Robinson (SMU)—4th
ANALYSIS: Sitting at #18, we thought the Thunder might go for either Kaepernick or Dalton as an eventual replacement when Jake Plummer retires, but they opted to play it safe, picking an OT to protect their grey-haired QB. We already criticized their very early pick of Mount Union WR Cecil Shorts, so now it is up to Shorts to sign and then prove us wrong.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: S Rahim Moore, UCLA
FIRST ROUND PICK: OT Tyron Smith (UCLA)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: TBD
ANALYSIS: Despite early talk of moving on form Mark Sanchez, a pretty solid year on a bad team last year kept LA out of the QB Market. The Express made an odd move, protecting lesser talent like SDSU’s DeMarco Sampson in the T-Draft and then using a 1st round pick to select Tyron Smith, a player they could have protected. How will that fly with Smith and his agent? Is it better to be a T-Draft selection or a 1st rounder? LA had only 5 picks in the open draft, so we will see if they get any help from a small pool.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: QB Ryan Mallett (Ark)
FIRST ROUND PICK: DE J.J. Watt (Wisc)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: DE Sam Acho (Texas)—2nd
ANALYSIS: The Showboats have had their eye on Mallett forever, so they had better sign him. If they can get their QB and also land Watt out of Wisconsin, their 1st pick, this could be a draft we look back on as a foundation of something special. We love that they doubled down on the DE position by picking Acho out of Texas, since you know the NFL Oilers are going to be aggressive in trying to wrest Watt away from the Showboats.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: LB Greg Jones (MSU)
FIRST ROUND PICK: OT Gabe Carimi (Wisc)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: DE D’Aundre Reed (ARIZ)—5th
ANALYSIS: With Griese recovering nicely and looking good in voluntary minicamps, Michigan also felt no pressure to chase a QB. Their 1st round pick is a nice addition to a pretty solid line. They also hope that perhaps a weak T-Draft pool means they can dedicate the cash needed to Greg Jones to get him to sign on the dotted line. A possible sleeper in this draft is TE Rob Housler out of Florida Atlantic. He is not speedy, but he is a solid blocker who could also be a nice outlet for Griese.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: WR Denarius Moore (Tenn)
FIRST ROUND PICK: DT Jarvis Jenkins (Clemson)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: DE Mario Addison (Troy)—4th Round
ANALYSIS: You can ask us, but we have no idea why Nashville traded up to pick Jarvis Jenkins. Yes it was only a few spots, but why do it at all? They should have had no issue getting Jenkins with their original pick. We do like some later picks, such as DE Mario Addison in the 4th. The best of their T-Draft was WR Moore, another Vol to add to the Knight roster.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: S Quinton Carter (OU)
FIRST ROUND PICK: NONE—Traded to Ohio
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: TE Virgil Green (Nevada)—5th
ANALYSIS: The choice to drop out of the 1st round will not make the Generals’ Army happy, but it may have been a shrewd move in the long term, especially since Ohio clearly overpaid to move back into the round for Gabbert. What we find odd is that New Jersey did not go after HB DeMarco Murray in the T-Draft, but picked Syracuse back Delone Carter instead. In the open draft, we like the selections of guard Will Rackley and WR Doug Baldwin in the mid-rounds as well as the Virgil Green pick.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)
FIRST ROUND PICK: DE Cameron Jordan (Cal)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: TBD
ANALYSIS: If they can sign both Jordan and Peterson it is a win of a draft. We don’t see much else in their picks that merits comment, but those two, with the addition of Drew Brees makes for a pretty stellar offseason for the Breakers. Now they just have to do what they can to get these players signed to long term deals.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: S Chris Conte (Cal)
FIRST ROUND PICK: QB Colin Kaepernick (Nevada)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: HB Ryan Williams (Va Tech)—2nd Round
ANALYSIS: Cap issues clearly impacted Oakland’s choices. They went a bit cheap in the T-Draft, not protecting top flight options like Cameron Jordan, but going for a Chris Carter (Fresno LB) and Chris Conte (safety). In the Open Draft, the big move was to sign Kaepernick, which is not a “today” pick, unless they know something about Joey Harrington’s recovery that we don’t. They landed their replacement (they hope) for Ricky Williams in Va Tech HB Ryan Williams, a more dynamic player than Shane Vereen, who they could have protected in the T-Draft but let slide by.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: CB Chimdi Chekwa (OSU)
FIRST ROUND PICK: QB Blaine Gabbert (Mizzou) & DT Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: WR Randall Cobb—4th Round
ANALYSIS: Birmingham’s decision to draft both Newton and Locker clearly flustered the Glory. They ended up paying way too much in draft capital to get back in the 1st round with a second pick, but, if they can sign both Marcel Dareus and Blaine Gabbert, they may be forgiven the fluster. Their later draft was actually quite good, selecting a plummeting DeMarco Murray in the 3rd, TE Lee Smith of Marshall, and Cobb. They even took a flyer on Terrelle Pryor of OSU late in the draft despite passing on him in the T-Draft picks.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: G Rodney Hudson (FSU)
FIRST ROUND PICK: OT James Carpenter (Alabama)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: LB Colin McCarthy (Miami)—3rd
ANALYSIS: Orlando hopes they have a diamond in the rough in WR Leonard Hankerson, a T-Draft pick from Miami, but the rest of their draft feels somewhat lackluster. Hudson is a fine guard, but neither he nor OT James Carpenter is going to move the needle on excitement. What they will do, if they sign, is help Eli Manning feel safe in the pocket.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: DE Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple)
FIRST ROUND PICK: OT Anthony Castonzo (BC)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: LB Greg Lloyd Jr. (UConn)—5th
ANALYSIS: No team used the “double up” strategy of picking two players for the same position, quite the way Phily did. They not only picked back to back LB’s in the draft (Quan Sturdivant of UNC and Greg Lloyd Jr. of UConn, but then did the same thing with DT’s in later rounds. Seems they believe that they may have difficulty signing some players, or maybe they are just realistic about the NFL’s 52% sign rate of players drafted by both leagues.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: DE Jabaal Sheard (Pitt)
FIRST ROUND PICK: QB Andy Dalton (TCU)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: G Julian Vandervelde (Iowa)—3rd
ANALYSIS: While many thought that Pittsburgh might use a midround pick on a QB, not many saw them jumping at Andy Dalton in the 1st, but when he slipped down to the #25 pick, perhaps it was a question of value at that spot. If Dalton signs, we expect Pat White, who has simply never broken through for the Maulers, to be shipped off. No need to pay 3 QB’s that top pick money. Beyond Dalton, the best pick for the Maulers may well be Vandervelde, a human tractor at guard for the Hawkeyes.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: WR Titus Young (Boise St)
FIRST ROUND PICK: CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: TBD
ANALYSIS: One of the funniest moments of the draft was when Portland Pick, TE Jordan Cameron, stood next to Breaker draftee Cameron Jordan and they challenged reporters to get their names right. Cameron (the TE) should be a nice safety valve for either Feeley or Fitzpatrick. Other than Young, Cameron, and Jimmy Smith, the rest of the draft is pretty light, so the Stags better hope they can nab those three.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: LB Mason Foster (Wash)
FIRST ROUND PICK: LB Von Miller (TAMU)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: LB Akeem Ayers (UCLA)—2nd
ANALYSIS: Seattle knew who they wanted and did what they needed to so they had the shot to pick him. Von Miller will be an impact player for the Dragons if they can keep him away from the NFL. You notice they also double dipped, selecting Akeem Ayers in the 2nd round for back-to-back LBs. That seems smart, since the odds of both heading to the PNW is not great. Add in a 3rd LB in Mason Foster from the T-Draft, and it seems clear that Seattle is worried about NFL defections.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: LB Aldon Smith (Mizzou)
FIRST ROUND PICK: CB Prince Amukamara (Nebr)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: CB Buster Skrine (Chatt)—4th
ANALYSIS: Traded down in the first round and still got the player they coveted in Amukamara. St. Louis needs lots of help on defense, and with picks like Amukamara, Smith, and Skrine they think they are headed in the right direction. If they can also land Iowa DE Adrian Clayborn, also from the T-Draft, they will have added a lot of talent and youth to a D that needed both.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: DT Terrell McClain (USF)
FIRST ROUND PICK: QB Christian Ponder (FSU)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: HB Shane Vereen (Cal)—2nd
ANALYSIS: The Bandits joined several teams in passing on a top player in the T-Draft only to use their #1 pick on that same player. We are not sure the strategy here, though perhaps it is about guaranteed compensation as a lure for the player, but Christian Ponder was the pick. We prefer their choice of Shane Vereen in the 2nd round, since Willis McGahee is not getting any younger. TE Luke Stocker out of Tennessee will have some big shoes to fill after Jeremy Shockey left for the NFL Giants.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: G Danny Watkins (Baylor)
FIRST ROUND PICK: DE Cameron Heyward (Ohio St)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: WR Kamar Aiken (UCF)—3rd
ANALYSIS: The Outlaws went heavy on Baylor players in the T-Draft, which is unusual when you have UT right there. But we like the choices of HB Jay Finley and OG Danny Watkins. Neither are 1st round talents, but both could be useful additions if they ink them. In the Open Draft, the choice of Heyward is an interesting one. It almost feels like Texas got a bit wrapped up in a run on DE’s and felt they needed one too. Our favorite pick may actually be LB Casey Matthews later in the draft, an underrated player who could be dynamic on passing downs as a blitzer or in coverage against a TE.
TOP T-DRAFT SELECTION: CB Ras-I Dowling (Uva)
FIRST ROUND PICK: DT Corey Liuget (Illinois)
BEST SELECTION FROM ROUNDS 2-7: DE Allen Bailey (Miami)—2nd
ANALYSIS: The team with the fewest picks in the open draft due to past trades, Washington had only 4 selections, but their first one was a nice one. Liuget could be a major player for the Feds as soon as this year, should they be able to keep him. Outside of that, the T-Draft may produce more use for the Feds, if they can sign both CB Ras-I Dowling and WR Dontrelle Inman, both underrated talents out of Uva.
Rumors Push Later Expansion
As we await the special Expansion Task Force report in the March owners’ meeting, there is a lot of speculation about the potential growth of the USFL only 3 years after the last expansion. And while there have been no official statements from the league or members of the executive task force charged with exploring the scope and timing of a potential growth in the league, there have been enough leaks to get a sense of what we might expect in March.
The first of these, and not particularly an unexpected result, is that the task force is very likely to recommend an expansion of 2 teams, creating 6 equal divisions of 5 teams each. Some had floated the idea of a 4-team expansion, to match the NFL at 32 clubs, but that would entail a major overhaul of divisions, adding 2 more divisions to obtain a balance of eight 4-team divisions, as we see in the NFL. The USFL has used a 6 division format ever since it grew to 24 clubs in 1995 and it appears no one is interested in scrapping what has been a good format. If and when the USFL expands, we should anticipate that only 2 new cities will be added and the league will retain the six current divisions.
Second, despite retaining the same divisions, an expansion could require reallocation of teams among the divisions. For example, if the two top bids are both in the West, let’s say Dallas and San Diego, then that means that someone from the Pacific Division would have to relocate, perhaps Las Vegas to the SW Division, but that would mean that Dallas would have to be placed either in the Southern Division, or another SW team would have to be bumped so that Dallas could join the other 2 Texas Teams. That is just one example. A similar situation would occur if Miami were to get a team, if the league wanted to keep all 4 Florida teams together, which could be untenable. Basically, what we should expect is that at least 1 existing team may have to find a new division if and when expansion were to happen.
Finally, and this is the most tenuous set of leaks and theories. There has been some very unofficial and very back door hubbub that the task force is leaning towards recommending expansion in 2018 or possibly 2020. That is a very long timeframe, and one that could lead bidding groups like the Destination Dallas group led by Mark Cuban to look for more immediate answers through purchase and relocation of an existing team. That is obviously a concern, but it appears that concerns about oversaturation and dilution of talent soon after the 2006-2008 expansion may be winning out. Again, this is very unofficial and very tenuous, but if that is the direction that the league moves, they will almost certainly find themselves looking at potential relocation of franchises, as we saw leading up to the 1987, 1995, and 2006 expansions, with several expansion clubs in each (Chicago in ’87, LA in ’95, and both Atlanta and St. Louis in ’06) occupying spaces vacated by clubs that departed for a new location in between expansion cycles.
This cannot be good news for the fans of clubs considered prime relocation targets. Fans in Boston and Las Vegas, where stadium issues are considerable, or in Oakland, where the Coliseum is in dire need of replacement. Even clubs like Charlotte, St. Louis, and Ohio could be potential targets due to issues of stadium control and tenancy. It is way too early to speculate on that now, but within the next month or so we will at least have the recommendation of the task force, and very likely a leaguewide vote on the issue of expansion. Based on those results, things could get pretty “exciting” around many clubs in the USFL.
Highlights of the 2011 Schedule
As we prepare for preseason to begin, it is also time for USFL fans to get excited about the upcoming season. We scoured the 16-week schedule and found the games that we think will be particularly engaging and worth the watch. Some are regional rivalries and derbies, others great inter-divisional or inter-conference clashes between 2010 playoff clubs. We even have a few games here that could be great matchups of individuals, like the Manning-Brees showdown that features both QB’s with their new teams. What we came up with were 40 games over 16 weeks that we are going to circle on our calendars.
WEEK 1
HOUSTON @ PHILADELPHIA—Nothing better than a Summer Bowl Rematch to kick off the year.
NEW ORLEANS @ BIRMINGHAM—Drew Brees with his new club, possibly against Cam Newton?
SEATTLE @ PORTLAND—The Cascade Clash as a season opener. This could be fun.
WEEK 2
LAS VEGAS @ OAKLAND—The two top candidates to take the Pacific clash early.
CHICAGO @ PITTSBURGH—Another divisional matchup of potential frontrunners.
WEEK 3
ORLANDO @ NEW ORLEANS—The Brees-Manning Swap takes center stage in Week 3.
HOUSTON @ TEXAS—The defending champs visit their in-state rival, hoping to topple the kings.
MICHIGAN @ CHICAGO—One of the fiercest rivalries in the league is reborn for another year.
WEEK 4
WASHINGTON @ NEW JERSEY—Two contenders in the NE Division do battle.
LOS ANGELES @ OAKLAND—The Gold Coast Darby is renewed, with LA hoping for a better year.
WEEK 6
PHILADELPHIA @ NEW JERSEY—The Turnpike Classic, nothing more needs to be said.
NASHVILLE @ MEMPHIS—Can a new-look Memphis squad take on the Knights?
ORLANDO @ JACKSONVILLE—Both clubs disappointed in 2010, will either rebound in 2011?
WEEK 7
HOUSTON @ DENVER—The head-to-head battle for the SW Division starts here.
MEMPHIS @ BIRMINGHAM—A classic rivalry that could be rookie vs. rookie at QB
ATLANTA @ CHARLOTTE—A newer rivalry, but one that could be huge as both teams improve.
WEEK 9
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON—These two always seem to be in the mix each year.
WEEK 10
JACKSONVILLE @ TAMPA BAY—Another Florida Derby between teams that finished 7-9.
ATLANTA @ ORLANDO—All about the SE this week with 4 of 5 teams going head to head.
PITTSBURGH @ OHIO—A growing rivalry now that Ohio does not dominate as they had.
BALTIMORE @ PHILADELPHIA—Another great NE Clash. Seems everyone hates the Stars.
DENVER @ ARIZONA—A bit of a one-sided rivalry, but the Wranglers will upset on occasion.
WEEK 11
ORLANDO @ TAMPA BAY—So many great games in Florida. Hard to pick just one.
WASHINGTON @ BALTIMORE—No two rivals live closer to each other than these two.
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA—Could this be a playoff preview? Two 2010 Division Champs.
WEEK 12
OAKLAND @ SEATTLE—If the Dragons can rebound and compete in the Pacific?
DENVER @ WASHINGTON—One of the more intriguing inter-conference games, with lots of D.
WEEK 13
PHILADELPHIA @ DENVER—Another inter-conference fight for the Gold.
ORLANDO @ ATLANTA—Yes, the SE Conference is one to watch this year.
WEEK 14
BOSTON @ NEW JERSEY—Not Red Sox-Yankees, but still a great battle in the NE Division.
DENVER @ HOUSTON—We reprise this matchup because we think it will be huge by Week 14.
WEEK 15
PITTSBURGH @ HOUSTON—A rematch of the 2010 Western Finals.
CHARLOTTE @ ATLANTA—One more time for these two SE Rivals.
JACKSONVILLE @ ORLANDO—Will one or both be in a playoff hunt at this stage?
WEEK 16
TAMPA BAY @ ORLANDO—Week 16 divisional play is always huge. With these two moreso.
PHILADELPHIA @ BOSTON—Could be a battle for a top seed, or a Wild card.
ATLANTA @ JACKSONVILLE—With any luck, this game will have lots of playoff meaning.
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND—A rough final week for both teams, likely with seeding on the line. PITTSBURGH @ MICHIGAN—If Panthers rebound with Griese back, this could be a title fight.
NEW ORLEANS @ NASHVILLE—The last 2 years this has determined the division. Will it be 3?