OCTOBER 14, 2010
The early offseason has focused more on the moves that have not been made than those that have. Yes, there have been some significant signings in free agency, led by Troy Polamalu leaving LA for an even sunnier climate, but for the most part the two biggest stories have been the negotiations and bidding wars for two starting QB’s, Drew Brees, being shopped on the trade market by Orlando, and Jake Delhomme, the only true starter among a limited QB free agent pool. Both QB’s remain in limbo, but both are getting significant interest across the league. In our October Offseason Report, we will bring you up to date on all the news, from Ohio changing gears with a new Head Coach, to all the Free Agent and NFL signings, news out of the league meetings, and finally, a full draft preview as we look to see what gaps and needs can be met from this year’s Territorial and Open Collegiate Drafts. It’s the USFL offseason, so you know a lot is happening, we will break it all down for you.
Andrus Named Ohio Head Coach
We start our review of the past 2 months of offseason news and transactions with the second and last coaching vacancy being filled. It will be a big shift for the culture of the Ohio Glory as they go from offensive schemer Al Luginbill to the hard-nosed defensive style of former Baltimore Blitz defensive coordinator Bart Andrus. Andrus, who spent 4 seasons in Baltimore after a short tenure with the NFL Tennessee Copperheads, will take over the head coaching duties for an Ohio club that is in a clear rebuild phase.
Ohio, now without all three of the big 3 offensive stars that helped bring them back to back titles in the early 2000’s, will now very likely take on a more defensive-minded stance. The team has several quality defenders already on the roster, including Ohio State products James Laurinaitis and Ashton Youboty, DE Chauncey Davis, and DT Wendell Bryant. The offense is in a major reworking phase after the 2010 experiment of going with longstanding backup Chris Redman proved an unsuccessful effort. This offseason, Ohio has to find a new signal caller, but also is looking at replacing both HB Eddie George (retired) and all-time receiving leader for the club Joey Galloway. They have already made a move to start on that path, as we will see later, but now Andrus will be looking for help with the offense as he focuses his attention on building a defense much as he did in Baltimore.
Expect Andrus to focus on linebacker play, a wide array of blitz schemes, and solid safety support behind it. That is the formula that did well for him with Adam Archuleta and James Farrior in Baltimore, and we expect much of the same with the Glory. Ohio missed the playoffs and had their worst season in over a decade in 2009, finishing with 10 losses for the first time since 1996, their second year as an expansion club. They finished 2010 at 4-11-1 and sit with the second pick in the upcoming Collegiate Draft. Expect their target to be QB Jake Locker out of Washington, a top tier prospect who most expect to be available (since Seattle has the rights to UW and they have no need for a high-cost backup QB). With Birmingham picking first, Ohio may not get the chance at Locker, so they should be scouting several potential QB prospects this year. Beyond that, it will be through free agency and trades that Coach Andrus will try to enhance his roster. That work has already begun, as you will see.
Ricky Williams Calls it a Career, Invaders Caught Off Guard
With an announcement just 14 days ago, on Sept. 31, that he was going to retire from competitive football and focus his attention on his burgeoning business interest in the legal cannabis industry in California. Williams, who once served a 1-year suspension in the USFL for his use of marijuana as a medical recovery option, and a long time advocate for both medical and recreational legalization, has been investing in California’s medical marijuana industry, as well as advocating for the state to follow Colorado in legalizing recreational use.
Williams, rushed for 1,307 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2010, and was very much expected to be the centerpiece of Oakland’s offense in 2011. His sudden, and clearly unexpected departure, forces the Invaders and Coach Dennis Green to reevaluate their off-season plans, with the first wave of free agency already completed. Oakland will have to look for an answer, which may include moving to more of a dual-back system with returning veteran Jerious Norwood. The draft is one option, with several quality backs available, including a potential workhorse in Cal halfback Shane Vereen, a player who is within Oakland’s three protected schools for the Territorial Draft. Free agency also holds a few options, though five of the better running back options (Tatum Bell, LaBrandon Toefield, Ciatrick Fason, James Jackson, and Michael Bush) have already signed with a new team, leading Antonio Brown, Anthony Womack, and James Jackson as the best prospects left. We don’t know what the second NFL transfer window will provide, but topflight halfbacks tend not to move teams during their prime years. All in all, there appears to be no way that Oakland does not take a hit with Williams’s retirement, and the late announcement.
Orlando Has Several Suitors for Brees
Before we get to the trades that have already been finalized in the USFL offseason, we have to address the 300 lb. gorilla in the room. That is the “auctioning” of QB Drew Brees by the Orlando Renegades. The Renegades announced their intent to move the disgruntled QB even before the playoffs had begun, and they have had no shortage of suitors making contact with their front office. We know as fact that Orlando has already spoken with the Boston Cannons, Memphis Showboats, Charlotte Monarchs, and Birmingham Stallions. We expect as well that they will hear from several others, including very possibly the Ohio Glory.
What has been interesting so far is that Orlando has said that any deal must include either multiple #1 picks in the Collegiate Draft (this year or combined with future years) or a mix of players that includes a viable starting QB. Our question is what Orlando considers viable. Would they look at Portland’s A. J. Feeley and feel that he could start for them in 2010? What about someone like Cody Pickett from Pittsburgh, or even their current backup, Pat White? Could a team with a solid starter like a David Carr (Arizona), Mark Sanchez (LA), or Joe Flacco (Texas) view a move to get Brees as an upgrade at the position? He is a former MVP of the league after all. We expect that any move will be completed before the draft, as Orlando would want a shot at the very strong rookie QB class of 2011, including a potential T-Draft protected player on their radar, FSU’s Christian Ponder. If a true starting QB is not included in a trade deal, the odds are that Orlando wants to acquire several top picks and then use their T-Draft on the Seminole QB.
Right now, we would put Boston and Birmingham at the top of the list of potential suitors, but we are in no way confident that either will be willing to pay the price Orlando is requiring at present, and since neither has a strong QB in house right now, it would require a lot of draft capital to land Brees with either club.
Let’s turn to the early trades that have already impacted the league and shifted some draft day strategies. We will almost certainly see a flurry of action in December as we draw closer to the January draft, but the wheeling and dealing has already begun, with at least 1 notable player sent from one coast to the other.
QB Chris Weinke: Charlotte, having decided that a new direction was needed at QB, has sent their starter of the past 3 seasons, Chris Weinke, to Seattle. Seattle plans to use the NFL veteran as a backup to Byron Leftwich, and is apparently willing to absorb the remaining year of his contract. In return for Weinke, Seattle sent starting strong safety John Keith to the Monarchs. Keith was viewed as expendable after Seattle coaches became enamored with the growth they saw in understudy Shaun Schillinger, a training camp standout who finished 2010 with 6 starts, 33 tackles and 2 forced fumbles. Schillinger’s rise made Keith a commodity Seattle was willing to part with and now almost certainly makes Keith the new starting center fielder for the Monarchs, who are trying to strengthen a defense that has been their most productive squad, all the while trying to find a direction at QB.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick: The former member of the Bengals in the NFL and starting QB for just over 1 season in New Jersey, Fitzpatrick is a contract New Jersey was not willing to absorb now that 2010 rookie Sam Bradford is the clear starter at QB. They wanted to get some value for Fitzpatrick, who still has 2 more years on his contract, and they found a willing trade partner in the Portland Stags. Portland, which still has A. J. Feeley under contract for 2011, will now have an open position between their 2010 starter and Fitzpatrick. In return for the QB, New Jersey went a different route than Orlando, opting to take draft picks, Portland’s 2nd and 5th rounders this year, as they try to build depth for a roster that surprised many by going 8-8 this past season. New Jersey also resigned Kris Kershaw, as the 13-year veteran backup will now very likely be the #2 behind Bradford.
QB Brad Gradkowski: A third QB move, though this one does not involve a starter. With Tampa Bay happy to have Brett Romar backing up Daunte Culpepper, the 5-year veteran Gradkowski was a contract to remove rather than one to retain for the Bandits. They shopped Gradkowski around, and while trading with a division rival is somewhat rare, in the case of a backup QB, it is not unheard of. So, Gradkowski will now move slightly more northward and make his new home in Atlanta, where he will serve as the primary backup to Kyle Orton. Gradkowski will almost certainly displace Jordan Palmer, who honestly has not shown much in his 4 years in the league. In return for Gradkowski, Tampa Bay obtained much needed depth at wide receiver with former Fire and General WR David Tyree. Tyree, who had a career-high 59 receptions in Atlanta’s expansion year of 2006, also had a strong 2009 campaign with 58 receptions for 747 yards, but only started 3 games in 2010 due to nagging injuries and the emergence of Josh Reed and Demaryius Wiliams as the primary receivers for the Fire. He will now likely get a shot to become a true #2 receiver once again with Tampa Bay.
LB Keith Bullock: A true 2-for-1 deal brings linebacker Keith Bullock from Memphis to Pittsburgh, where he will join Brian Cushing and Kawika Mitchell in Ron Rivera’s 3-man LB group. Bullock leaves Memphis after only 1 year of his 4-year rookie contract, in a rare move for a team. He started only 3 games for the Showboats, but made 29 tackles in his limited playing time. Now in Pittsburgh, he will form a part of what has been an improving defense, led by Cushing, safety Sean Taylor, and DE Jared Allen. In return for the young linebacker, Memphis wrangled two players in need positions from the Maulers. Both wide receiver Matt Jones and cornerback Kareem Larrimore will now suit up in the scarlet and silver sky uniforms of the Showboats. Jones, a 5-year veteran of the Express and Maulers, has yet to find a true home after leaving Arkansas for the USFL. His best year so far was his final year in LA, where he had 35 receptions for 292 yards. Larrimore was a 9-year veteran of the Maulers. He started all 16 games for the Maulers this year, but played a mix of #2 corner and nickel. With Patrick Surtain, Will Poole, and Dunta Robinson all available to the Maulers, Larrimore was an expendable piece of the defense and may get more attention with Memphis than he would have in the Steel City.
G Damien Woody: One last “big name” trade in the early days of the offseason as Philadelphia parts with 6-year veteran guard Damien Woody. Woody, who started for the Stars for 2 seasons, became the swing guard for Philadelphia this year as 2nd year prospect Rich Ornberger was given the starting slot opposite Cooper Carlisle. Woody is considered an outstanding run blocker in zone schemes, but has struggled with holding penalties over his career, particularly in pass protection. He now heads to Jacksonville, where he will likely start opposite Michael Moore as the Bulls try to build a run game around C. J. Spiller and QB Tim Tebow. Jacksonville sends the Eastern Conference Champion Stars another piece for their defense in the form of cornerback Sam Shields. With Antonio Cromartie gone in free agency, the acquisition of a solid #2 behind Quentin Jammer was essential for the Stars, and in Shields they have a corner who is not afraid to tackle (32 in 2010) and can also make plays with his hands. Shields is another example of a 2nd year player who is getting traded after only a partial season in the league.
With only a few new retirements to report (Williams, Punter Chris Gardocki of Pittsburgh, WR Reidel Anthony of Baltimore, HB Fred McAfee of Arizona, and HB Robert Edwards of Charlotte), the main attention the past two months has been firmly on free agent signings, and we have had no shortage of players shifting loyalties over the first 8 weeks of hot stove action. Here are the biggest stories coming out of the first 6 weeks of free agency in the USFL
WR Shuffle
A lot of movement on the WR front, including some of the biggest names in the league. It started with Joey Galloway, who Ohio expected to retire, opting instead for a 2-year deal to join the Tampa Bay Bandits. With Galloway gone, the new staff of Bart Andrus in Ohio had wideout as a top priority and they jumped on that, signing away Steve Smith from the Eastern Conference Champion Stars for what was rumored to be one of the most lucrative receiver contracts in league history. That signing prompted Philadelphia to get active and they went for rising star Stevie Johnson, another flamboyant flanker, from the Monarchs. Two players who did not swap teams were Lee Evans, resigned to the Showboats for 4 years, and Javon Walker, who decided to stay put with the new regime in Ohio. Still on the market we see veterans Joe Jurevicius, Derrick Mason, Eddie Kennison, Anquon Boldin, and slot receivers Roscoe Parrish and Antwan Randle-El.
Polamalu Leads DB Field
Troy Polamalu was the undisputed best defender in the market, so it is not surprising that he received no fewer than 8 offers for employment, but, after 3 weeks of back and forth, the superstar safety found his match and became the newest member of the Arizona Wranglers. He topped a flurry of DB signings that included fellow safeties Darren Sharper (to the Stars) and Will Allen (to Boston), as well as cornerbacks Lenny Walls (Birmingham), Corey Webster (Ohio), and Duane Starks (NSH)
Offensive Lineman Cash In
In a year that saw several star quarterbacks knocked out for the year, protecting a team’s leader has never had more value, and that means that offensive lineman have never had a better market. A lot of money was tossed at O-line talent this offseason (to date) and a lot of players took those deals to the bank. Among the newly rich & famous we have center Robbie Tobeck, moving from Baltimore to Atlanta, guard Bill Ferrario, who leaves Pittsburgh for Seattle, and guard Chris Pitts, making a new home in San Antonio with the Outlaws. Tackles, the highest demand position, remain a shrewd bunch, with some of the top prospects (Mike Pearson, Mike Williams. Will Smith, Corey Rinehart) holding out as Free Agency continues.
Jake Delhomme Continues to Field Offers
Three teams have been in a bidding war for the services of QB Jake Delhomme, released by Memphis after their disappointing season. Charlotte appears to be the front runner, but they are getting some fierce competition from Boston and, surprisingly, Las Vegas. Perhaps the Thunder know something we don’t about Jake Plummer’s long term prospects, as most pundits did not see the Thunder in the market for the veteran QB of the Showboats and Bulls. And while Delhomme has been using the competition to increase his value as the only true starter on the market, a couple of players have opted to sign to backup roles. Kevin Kolb will join yet another team, as he heads down the coast from a short gig in Oakland to a 2-year deal to back up Mark Sanchez in LA. Jeff Blake, the quintessential “journeyman” QB will test another market in New Jersey, where his veteran savvy will help Sam Bradford stay focused. Finally, former CFL starter Dave Dickenson stays in the USFL as a backup for David Carr in Arizona.
Other notable signings abound over the first 6 weeks of free agency. They include:
DEFENSE
DE Chuckie Nwokorie cashing in on a 3-year deal to leave Baltimore for Boston.
DE Joe Tafoya will replace Nwokorie on a revamped Baltimore D-line.
DE Kamerian Wemberley is one of several big signings by the Stallions as he cashes in.
DE Adewale Ogunleye hoping to add some pass rush punch to a solid Las Vegas defense.
DT Jason Peter, at age 35, signing on for 1 more year, now with New Orleans.
DT Kendrick Clancy goes from perennial power Philadelphia to struggling St. Louis
DT Kenard Lang taking a 2 year deal in Houston.
LB T. J. Slaughter goes the opposite, way, leaving St. Louis for Seattle.
LB Will Overstreet trades Orlando’s sun for Denver’s snow season.
LB Joe Odom will remain in Oakland, resigning for 2 more seasons.
LB Mark Simoneau signing with the Federals in Washington.
LB Mike Maslowski staying in the division and joining the Oakland Invaders.
LB Nate Webster leaving Pittsburgh for Birmingham in a Steel City swap.
LB Rocky Boiman hoping to get a permanent starting gig with the Texas Outlaws.
LB Jeff Goff, only 23, is seeking a warm reception in Tampa Bay after a rough year in Boston.
OFFENSE
HB LaBrandon Toefield hoping to get more snaps as a new Jacksonville Bull.
HB Tatum Bell will be a rotational player for his new club, the Boston Cannons.
HB Michael Bush also hopes to get some snaps as he heads to Portland and the Stags.
TE Chris Cooley, leader of a very limited pool, will likely be the new starter with his new club, the Texas Outlaws.
With winter approaching fast, there are still a lot of big names left to find a home in the USFL, and while some players jumped to the Fall league (more on that in a minute) the free agency pool still has some talent that hope to find a paycheck and a place they can thrive in the USFL. Our top remaining free agents at this juncture are:
QB: Jake Delhomme (MEM)
HB: Kevin Faulk (HOU), Cedrick Benson (TEX), R. J. Redmond (NJ)
FB: Chris Massey (WSH)
WR: Derrick Mason (LV), Joe Jurevicius (BOS), Eddie Kennison (WSH), Roscoe Parrish (TBY), Anquon Boldin (CHI)
OT: Mike Pearson (HOU), Mike Williams (STL), Will Smith (ORL), Corey Rinehart (BAL)
OG: Leonard Davis (TEX), Ruben Brown (OAK), Jeffrey Fischer (STL)
C: Chris Spencer (ATL), Mike Flanagan (DEN)
DE: Marcellus Wiley (MEM), Chris Powell (JAX), Aaron Kampman (TEX), Andre Wadsworth (BOS)
LB: Takeo Spikes (SEA), Corey Miller (ATL), Dat Nguyen (DEN)
S: Reggie Tongue (CHA), Pearson Prioleau (OAK)
CB: Antonio Cromartie (PHI)
K: Shayne Graham (LV)
The expectation when the NFL and USFL opted to shift their transfer windows later in to September-October and February-March is that the result would be more players staying within their current leagues, and fewer big shifts in talent, particularly right as one season started. Last year that was certainly the trend, but, if this September’s window is any indication, teams are now more willing to sign across leagues and wait until the 4th or 5th week of their regular season to be able to fully utilize new talent. At least the NFL seems to be looking at doing that. We will see if the USFL reciprocates in February. This year’s crop of players making the jump from the USFL to an NFL season which has already begun is pretty significant.
Among the top players signed by the fall league, we find defensive stalwarts like Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (NSH to the Packers), DT Rocky Bernard (HOU to the Steelers), LB Rob Morris (Birmingham to the Colts), Adalius Thomas (Charlotte to the Bears), and Sean Barber (Las Vegas to the Cowboys). Perhaps the biggest name of anyone who jumped is Jacksonville LB Lavar Arrington, who, at age 33, signed a surprising 4-year deal with the Washington Redskins.
Among offensive stars signing to play this fall in the NFL, we find wideouts Dez White (DEN to the Bears), Mike Williams (WSH to the Lions), and tight ends Jeremy Shockey (Bandits to NY Giants), Mark Breuner (ARZ to Steelers), and Dallas Clark (PHI to Colts). Philly will certainly miss Clark, a big target for Kurt Warner. Halfbacks also made the leap, with Travis Minor, Maurice Morris, Ahmad Galloway, and, in yet another blow for the Stars, Darren Sproles, all jumping to the Fall. On the line, we see Mark Hill (CHA to Raiders), Mark Tauscher (NOR to Packers) and Jonas Jennings (ORL to Bills) all join the NFL.
The only QB of any note to make the jump was backup Brock Berlin, who leaves the Thunder to get a shot in Miami with the Dolphins. Now, admittedly, with Jake Delhomme the only full time starter to become a free agent, the pool was not big to begin with, but it very well may be that QB is not a position where a team in either league is willing to wait for their opportunity to sign a starter. It would mean going several weeks into a season without a clear option at the team’s most vital position.
One more note about players leaving the USFL for the NFL, troubled wide receiver Plaxico Burress is going to get a shot to redeem himself in the NFL after his self-inflicted gunshot wound cost him not only his spot on the Oakland Invader roster, but significant money in fines from the ensuing gun charges in Alameda County. Burress, who remains in physical therapy to strengthen the leg he shot, will get a chance to take the field in about 2-3 weeks with his new team, the New York Jets.
Before moving on to non-free agent news, there are just a handful of USFL signings from the largely-picked over, NFL free agent pool for September and October. No huge stars, but a few names that you might here on spring and summer weekends in the 2011 USFL season. Birmingham, which continues to use its significant cap room to bolster their roster, added a pretty solid LB in former Oiler Ernie Sims. Boston thinks they found an answer at guard with Steeler Harvey Dahl. Charlotte went for a tackle, signing Falcon Tyson Clabo to a 3-year deal. Kicker David Akers, after a short stint in San Diego, will join the LA Express as in a competition for their kicking duties. And finally, perhaps the biggest “splash” (in a very small pool) was the signing of former Miami Dolphin HB Ronnie Brown. Brown is hoping to revive his career after he had his starting job reduced in Miami. The former Auburn star signed a 2-year deal to join the Pittsburgh Maulers, who, after an injury-induced retirement from star DeShaun Foster, were looking to add a 2nd back to rotate with Kenny Watson. Brown will have a shot to prove he can be a full time starter as he splits carries with Watson next season for the Maulers.
The next NFL-USFL window will open in mid-February and extends through Week 2 of the USFL regular season in March. That is when we would expect to see NFL players signing with the USFL, as it comes at the very beginning of the NFL free agency period.
League Meetings Produce Little Change, Few Answers
There was a good chance the USFL league meetings in September could produce some huge changes for the league, but as it turned out, change is sometimes a difficult pill to swallow. The owners had options on the table to expand the playoff field from 12 to 14 teams, to alter the revenue sharing model, and to approve yet another wave of expansion, but what we got was a lot of status quo being reinforced and a new committee which will delay a leaguewide decision on expansion. The biggest news out of the league meetings was a shift in how the league will manage its Territorial Draft in the future, but even that was simply a return to past practice. For those who were hoping for sweeping changes or front page news, the 28 USFL owners provided little to be excited about.
EXPANSION
The issue of expansion was the story getting the most press around the country, largely due to some of the bigger markets which are already in the process of developing ownerhip bidding groups. We learned through the materials released by the USFL that there are currently 6 ownership groups which have already officially notified the USFL of their intention to seek a franchise in the next expansion round, all of which have asked that the round be conducted in 2016 or earlier. We knew about Destination Dallas, which largely kicked off the question of a quick return to expansion, and the group asking for the quickest turnaround, hoping for a team in time for the 2012 celebration of the USFL’s 30th anniversary. We learned that there are also potential suitors either fully developed or well on their way representing Miami, San Diego, the Twin Cities, Oklahoma City, and the Tidewater region of Viriginia. But, what each of these groups learned after the course of the week-long gathering of USFL ownership, is that the league is simply not of one mind on the topic and timing of expansion.
What came out of the league meetings was a decision to put together an ad hoc “Expansion Viability Study Group”, essentially a new temporary committee of 7 owners (or their representatives) and chaired by New Orleans’s David Dixon, to explore potential timelines and impacts of expansion from 28 to 30, or even 32, teams. The task force plans to work with the Finance and Competition committees and to provide a report in March of the viability of expansion as well as a recommendation on timing. It had been hoped that such a decision would come out of the fall meeting, but with ownership around the league divided on the concept, much less the timing, and a lack of reliable data, owners were not willing to commit based solely on anectodal stories about competitive balance and unfounded projections on financial impact. So, for Mark Cuban’s Dallas group, as well as the other 5 currently recognized groups (and potentially others who have not reached the point of filing a statement of intent with the league, the can is being kicked down the road.
PLAYOFFS The league owners did vote on the issue of expanding the playoff pool from 12 to 14 teams, and the decision was to remain at 12. Two primary complaints were raised about the expanded format. First, that it limits the number of byes to 2, only allowing the top seed in each conference to avoid a Wild Card matchup in the first week. Several owners spoke of the importance of recognizing the validity of the regular season by retaining at least 2 byes per conference, with arguments made to somehow expand that to all 6 division winners, though that would be a logistical nightmare. The second major concern came on the issue of celebrating mediocrity, with owners in agreement that no one wanted to see 8-8 clubs, much less any 7-9 teams qualify for the playoffs. Had the league stuck with a 14 team playoff in 2010, owners cited, the two beneficiaries would have been 8-8 New Jersey and 8-8 Portland. Several owners pointed out the impact of expansion of the college bowl system as a parallel, talking about the watering down of the entire bowl system by having both mediocre schools and unknown smaller schools now obtaining bowl berths. Not a perfect parallel, but one that drove home the idea that, like in baseball, the smaller playoff pool meant that only truly strong franchises would qualify and that competition for the final playoff spots, as we saw this year, would be intense. And so, with those arguments winning out, the 12-team format was retained.
TERRITORIAL DRAFT
This was the one area where some changes were expected and one was approved. While proposals to fold the T-Draft into the standard draft to create one single event, or to eliminate the T-Draft entirely, were squashed, one proposal, to return to the days when T-Draft picks could be traded away, was approved in a modified format. The controversial practice, which had been permissible during a solid 10 years of USFL history, means that a team can use T-Draft picks as collateral in a trade. This was used quite often in the past when a team with strength in a particular position, say QB, would have a top QB prospect available in its protected schools. Rather than simply not pick that player and send him to the Open Draft, the team could take bids from other clubs for a trade, allowing that other club exclusive access to the QB.
In the past, this was a practice that did create some controversy, since the entire concept of a T-Draft was to ensure that players with high marketability in one area of the country would more likely end up with the most appropriate team to maximize the fan base for the player and the team. What is the point of a territorial system, some have said, of the star QB from an LA school has his rights traded to a club in Atlanta or Boston? The counter argument about fairness, brought up, as usual, by teams in the somewhat college-poor regions of the Northeast and Northwest, is that the current format favors teams in places like Texas, California, and the South East, where most of the bigger college football programs reside. The ability to trade away those T-Draft slots, it was argued, creates more drama around the draft and more equity in the league overall.
Those arguments seemed to take hold, but a bone was thrown to the owners who favored a stricter use of the T-Draft as a regional talent pool. The final proposal, which was approved by a 22-6 vote, allows teams to trade away only 1 of their 3 T-Draft selections, and that the league will have the ability to nullify any T-Draft pick trade if it’s Competition Committee deems the trade to be imbalanced, essentially demanding that a T-Draft pick be measured with equal weight to an Open Draft selection, something which was not always the case in the earlier days of the league when the T-Draft picks were fully tradable. The restriction also permits only reallocation of the first T-Draft selection, which means that the equity required to obtain a T-Draft pick will have to equate to that of a first round selection in the Open Draft, a ruling that is expected to minimize the swapping of picks only to those instances where true first round talent is available in the T-Draft but not of interest to the team with the protected rights to the player.
With these three topics dominating the full week, no action was taken on rule changes (only a handful of minor adjustments had been proposed) or on other routine business. The 4th anticipated topic of discussion, the raising of the attendance requirement for full shares of the league’s revenue sharing plan was delayed until a virtual owner’s meeting scheduled for December. So, the big picture is that for now there is no decision on expansion, but that one should be known around the start of the 2011 season, that the playoff roster will stay with 12 teams at least until an expansion occurs, and that we will once again see the occasional T-Draft selection traded, particularly where QB’s are concerned, beginning with the 2012 Collegiate Draft. But what about this year’s Draft? What do we expect from one of the biggest QB classes in recent memory? And can one spectacular season alter the course of the entire draft? That is our next topic to explore.
Can One Breakout Season Upend the Entire Draft?
That is the question being asked as the league and the country watch a relatively unknown player put together a season like few before. Auburn QB Cam Newton began the year as something of an afterthought among draft experts, but that is not the case midway through the college season. Named the starter for the Tigers after arriving from tiny Blinn College, and after leaving Florida with little to show, Cam Newton is lighting up college football with a combination of passing and running skills that are drawing immediate comparison to some of the best in the game. And that is throwing a monkey wrench into the script we all anticipated for the USFL and NFL drafts.
Newton began his Auburn career throwing for 186 yards, but also rushing for 171, but that was against an inferior opponent in Arkansas State. In victories over Mississippi State and Clemson, Newton showed many of the same skills, but his numbers were far more modest. But then came the game against South Carolina just a few weeks ago. 158 yards passing with 2 TDs and 176 on the ground with 3 more rushing TDs. Folks around the pro scouting world took notice. He followed that game with a 3 TD performance against Louisiana-Monroe, but again impressed hugely against Kentucky, throwing for 210 but also rushing for 198 with 4 rushing touchdowns. With these performances, questions started to be asked about whether Newton could be a true contender as a top QB pick in the 2011 draft, something no one had been discussing a year ago.
Newton will have to prove himself with some tough SEC games on the docket. He has Arkansas up next, then LSU, Georgia, and Alabama in the Iron Bowl to finish the season. But right now heads are turning and, in particular in the USFL, possibilities are being discussed. Why? Well, because as of right now the team with the #1 pick in the USFL Open Draft is none other than the Birmingham Stallions, just down the road from Auburn. The Stallions are desperate for a quarterback, and the chance that Auburn would produce a top prospect just at the time when the Birmingham franchise has a major need is too good a story to pass up.
Newton, like all Auburn players, is within Birmingham’s protected school group for the Territorial Draft, and that prospect is exciting teams across the league. It had long been thought that Birmingham would use their T-Draft to shore up other areas of the team, reserving the #1 pick in the Open Draft for a QB, most likely Washington’s Jake Locker. And while there was some talk of teams trying to make a deal to move up and grab Locker, the prospects were pretty slim that Birmingham would be willing to do that, at risk of alienating a large portion of their fanbase who feel QB is the key to the club’s success. But, if Birmingham has access to a top flight QB in the T-Draft, particularly one who is making headlines nationwide, and creating a feeding frenzy within the state of Alabama, that means that the #1 pick in the draft may not need to be a QB for Birmingham. And that prospect makes the chance for another team to leap up and snag Locker far more conceivable.
Outside of Stallion fans, who are ecstatic about the prospect of Newton as a Stallion, and Birmingham being able to potentially land a top flight defender or halfback in the Open Draft, the rest of the USFL fandom is now in full panic mode about what this means for their team. For Ohio, which holds the #2 pick, and now might very well have an inside line on Jake Locker, the hope, of course, is that Birmingham drafts Newton, and goes a different direction with that top Open Draft pick, allowing Locker to sit available at #2. There is no mystery that Ohio rates Locker as their top prospect, though, thinking he may not be available, they have looked at Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, and Andy Dalton quite extensively. There was even talk about Ohio pushing for a trade up one spot, but Birmingham would not hear it.
Now, the prospect that Locker could be available at #2 has Ohio Glory fans very excited. But they are also very nervous, because, with so many teams desperate to land a franchise QB, the risk is very real that Birmingham, sitting on Newton, could be open to a trade, and that, for a hefty price, another team could leapfrog the Glory’s #2 pick and nab Locker for themselves. That essentially puts Ohio in the same position they would be in without Cam Newton’s rapid rise to national attention, but it feels far more problematic to Ohio fans and, we expect, front office staff.
If Birmingham were to find in Newton a potential franchise QB, which is still an if since he has really only played 5 games in his one season with Auburn to date, the potential winfall for the Stallions is significant. Imagine coming into the new season not only with a QB that fans would already see as a local hero, but also having potentially three or four top 10 prospects. Picture this scenario (one that requires that the Stallions spend a lot of salary cap, but one that is feasible.). Birmingham could spend their 3 T-Draft picks on Cam Newton, Alabama DT Marcel Dareus, and Alabama WR Julio Jones, and still have the top pick in the Open Draft to select someone like LB Von Miller of Texas A&M, WR A. J. Green of Georgia, or CB Patrick Peterson of LSU (assuming they are not T-Draft selections of other clubs). That would potentially be the single greatest draft any USFL team has ever had, and could immediately upend the entire Southern Division.
Birmingham could also hedge their bets, drafting Newton in the T-Draft and still drafting Locker in the Open Draft. With just over 50% of all USFL draft picks signing with the NFL that is not a strategy that is out of the question, though it is one we rarely see. In the past, we have seen plenty of examples where need at a key position leads a team to use 2 picks on that position, typically it has been a top round pick and a mid-round “safety valve” in case the star did not sign. But to draft 2 stars, sign one and then trade away the rights to the other, that is a huge potential win for the Stallions.
If, instead of double dipping, Birmingham opted to trade that top pick, any one of a dozen teams could jump over Ohio and nab Locker, forcing the Glory to rethink their entire draft, though we expect they would just drop down to the next QB on their list. Would LA at #4 make a move, despite Mark Sanchez’s strong 2010 campaign? Memphis sits at #5 and while they have been looking at T-Draft option Ryan Mallett, Locker would be a tempting potential move as well. Arizona at #6, Boston at #7, Charlotte at #9, and even Tampa Bay, with a long-in-the-tooth Daunte Culpepper, could also be in the running with a top 10 pick to swap with Birmingham. It will take more than 1 pick, of course, but the option for the Stallions to retain a Top 10 pick, get their franchise QB, and add even more picks, that would be enticing.
Amazing the impact half a season for a player with talent can do to upend what had been a pretty interesting draft already. The 2010 Draft is shaping up to be perhaps the most engaging and controversial in a long time. We expected no less with 5 potential starting QB’s graded with first round talent, and a ton of teams desperate to get new leadership under center. But now, with the potential for a 6th QB to jump into the discussion, and at the top of the draft as well, that makes this one to watch very closely.
TEAM BY TEAM DRAFT PREVIEW
BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS (2-14)
NEEDS: QB, SS, HB, DE, LB
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: In addition to Cam Newton, a Wild Card in the draft, the Stallions have a huge pool of talent, including both of the top 2 defensive tackles in Alabama’s Marcel Dareus and Auburn’s Nick Fairley. Add to that WR Julio Jones and HB Mark Ingram II, and the issue for Birmingham is how to pick only 3 and how to sign all three of their eventual picks.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: If Cam Newton comes back down to earth, the logical choice for Birmingham is Washington QB Jake Locker, but if Newton continues to shine, we expect Birmingham will jump on that PR goldmine in Alabama, which means that the #1 pick in the open draft could go 100 different ways. If they keep the pick, they could still pick Locker as insurance, or they could go for the best DE in the draft, Cameron Jordan of Cal (as with all picks, we have to imagine the player not protected by the T-Draft.)
OHIO GLORY (4-11-1)
NEEDS: QB, HB, WR, DT, G, CB, TE
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: The Ohio State pipeline does not provide help at any of the big 3 offensive needs, though they could use a low-risk pick to take developmental QB Terrelle Pryor. We think the best prospect for them is either DE Cameron Heyward or Cincinnati center Jason Kelce.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: It has to be a QB, right? If Birmingham does not take Locker, then he is absolutely their pick, but if they do, or if someone trades with them to nab Locker, then it will be up to the scouts to make a choice among Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert, FSU’s Christian Ponder, or TCU’s Andy Dalton.
ST. LOUIS SKYHAWKS (5-11)
NEEDS: LB, DE, T, DT
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: The Skyhawks love what they see in Josh Freeman, which means they are very unlikely to protect Mizzou QB Blaine Gabbert. So, who do they protect? LB Aldon Smith of the Tigers is a safe bet, and we also like DE Adrian Clayborn of Iowa, both areas of need for the St. Louis defense.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Assuming St. Louis feels good about signing Smith and/or Clayborn, they could go with a third position, like a Marcell Dareus or Nick Fairley at DT, because Birmingham won’t protect both outstanding DTs.
LOS ANGELES EXPRESS (5-11)
NEEDS: SS, OT, DT, WR, HB
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: Even though it is not a position of need, tackle Tyron Smith seems a good bet for LA, as is either LB Akeem Ayers of USC, or, more importantly, with Polamalu now a Wrangler, they could jump on Rahim Moore, another top Bruin prospect.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: LA should look for help at DT if one of the Bama-Auburn DT’s is there. If not, then how about a WR like Julio Jones or A. J. Green?
MEMPHIS SHOWBOATS (6-10)
NEEDS: QB, DE, FB, WR, K, P
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: The Showboats have been high on Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett for a long time, and their willingness to let Jake Delhomme go seems to be a pretty clear indication that they not only are going to select him, but feel very good about signing the big guy from the Razorbacks. Outside of that pick, their pool is somewhat shallow, but we could see them looking at Miss. State LB K. J. Wright or OT DeMarcus Love, a favorite of Mallett’s.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: If the QB situation for Memphis is settled, which it could be, then we think this will be a WR pick and if either A. J. Green or Julio Jones is out there, Memphis should jump on that option to help Mallett find a good target. They have Ferguson and resigned Lee Evans, but a top flight WR sure would help a young QB.
ARIZONA WRANGLERS (7-9)
NEEDS: HB, G, DE, TE
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: The Arizona Wildcat program have 3 decent DE’s graduating this year and that position is one of need for the Wranglers. We think Brooks Reed is the clearly superior player, but we could absolutely see Arizona also putting protection on either D’Aundre Reed or Ricky Elmore just for security.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Signing Polamalu wiped out one of the biggest need areas and put Arizona in a good position to go for Best Player Available, at least within the range of positions they see as needing improvement. At pick #6 they are likely to have the first shot at one of the linemen in the draft, so it could be someone like guard John Moffit of Wisconsin, center Mike Pouncey of Florida, or tackle James Carpenter of Alabama, any of whom would be a help for David Carr and the Wrangler offense.
BOSTON CANNONS (7-9)
NEEDS: QB, LB, WR, DT, TE, FS
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: If it were not for their choice of Wisconsin as one of their 3 schools (the 1 not tied to region), the Cannons would not have much to go with. OT Anthony Castonzo is the best player from BC, and they could go for him, but if they don’t protect J.J. Watt out of Wisconsin, they are fools. Sure, DE is not an immediate need, but Watt is such a talent that you have to make room for him.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Boston needs a QB and are considered a prime candidate to make a move if they think they can get Locker. If not, then the best option may well be Blaine Gabbert of Missouri, with Christian Ponder and Andy Dalton also viable options at pick #7.
SEATTLE DRAGONS (7-9)
NEEDS: LB, DE, G, P
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: Would Seattle take a shot at Jake Locker when they have a starter well in place in Byron Leftwich? Most say no, especially since sign & trade is such a rare feat in the USFL. Let’s assume they let Locker into the main pool as most expect, then what? Based on need, we love the idea of Seattle protecting LB Mason Foster of UW, and beyond that, maybe a flier on CB Jimmy Wilson of Montana.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Let’s assume that J. J. Watt is not here, then that means looking for another option at DE. How about Clayborn of Iowa, Cameron Jordan of Cal, or Robert Quinn of UNC. All solid prospects, all potentially protected, but we think at least 1 will be here for Seattle.
CHARLOTTE MONARCHS (7-9)
NEEDS: QB, C, HB, T, SS
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: We just mentioned Robert Quinn, the powerful DE out of UNC, but that is not really a position of need with the way Julius Peppers has revived his career in Charlotte. LB is a bigger need, and UNC has one of those too in Bruce Carter. NC State has a potential LB option in Nate Irving as well. And then there is UNC DT Marvin Austin, another big time defender who could help that Monarchs’ front 7.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: We know Charlotte is in the market for a QB, and they are a serious player in the Jake Delhomme sweepstakes, but if Delhomme signs elsewhere, we could easily see Ponder or Dalton headed to the Queen City.
TAMPA BAY BANDITS (7-9)
NEEDS: DT, WR, HB, G, TE
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: The usual river of talent from Miami is just not there this year, so look for Tampa Bay to look long and hard at the players out of USF and South Carolina. The best of the bunch is DT Terrell McClain of USF< but we could also see them going for CB Chris Culliver of South Carolina.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Wide Receiver or Halfback would be a good move here, though Tampa Bay has already made some moves in the receiving corps with the Galloway signing. If they go halfback, Va Tech’s Ryan Williams is an interesting prospect, as is Ingram from Alabama.
JACKSONVILLE BULLS (7-9)
NEEDS: LB, G, DE, SS
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: Florida center Mike Pouncey is tempting, even for a club that is not really in need of a new pivot. DE Da’Quan Bowers makes a bit more sense for the Bulls, as would CB Marcus Gilchrist of Clemson. Jacksonville is also looking for safety help, so Florida’s Ahmad Black could be a pick here.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Safety or Linebacker are the obvious choices. If they want to replace Lavar Arrington with another outside linebacker, they could do worse than Justin Houston of Georgia or Aldon Smith of Missouri. At safety, if available, Rahim Moore of UCLA or Temple’s Jaiquawn Jarrett seem the most likely picks.
TEXAS OUTLAWS (8-8)
NEEDS: TE, LB, G, HB, FS, WR
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: The Longhorns always seem to have someone worth a look. This year they have 2 corners to consider in Aaron Williams and Curtis Brown. Texas could also look to LBSam Acho as a potential pick. Guard is a need for Texas, and Baylor could provide the answer with Danny Watkins a possible T-Draft target.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Likely to be the top LB available at pick #14. Those to consider include Ayers, Mouton (Michigan), and Houston (Georgia). But if a top flight HB like Ingram is here, they may go that route, preparing for T. J. Duckett to step away from the game in the next year or two.
ORLANDO RENEGADES (8-8)
NEEDS: QB, T,LB, WR, P
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: We wonder if the Drew Brees move is a sign that Orlando is all in on Christian Ponder. That seems a logical direction if they really do move Brees for a bunch of picks or players in other positions. Others to consider protecting include FSU guard Rodney Hudso andUCF OT Jah Reid.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: We think it will be either O-line or a linebacker here. The same linebacker list as Texas is likely, while the big need for Orlando on the line is at RT, so perhaps someone like James Carpenter (Bama) or Marcus Gilbert (Florida).
MICHIGAN PANTHERS (8-8)
NEEDS: T, TE, DE, G
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: This may be the thinnest T-Draft pool the Panthers have ever seen. Both MSU and Michigan are very thin this year. We like LB Greg Jones of MSU, though linebacker is not a top priority for the Panthers. The other possible option is guard Stephen Schilling of the Wolverines, but he is considered a mid-round prospect, not a sure thing.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Left Tackle has to be the priority, so we think that Carpenter from Bama or perhaps Gabe Carimi if he is not protected by Boston. The big Wisconsin tackle is a huge reason why the Badgers keep punching out top halfbacks. An excellent run blocker.
PORTLAND STAGS (8-8)
NEEDS: FS, TE, T, LB, HB
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: Portland could use a scatback or 3rd down receiver to help balance out Jonathan Stewart’s inside game. They may have just the man in Oregon State’s Jaquizz Rodgers. He would be a nice pick, as would either Duck LB Casey Matthews or Beaver LB Gabe Miller.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: We had Portland as one of the QB-needy teams, but the deal to get Fitzpatrick to battle with Feeley makes us feel the search is over and Portland will focus on other areas of need. Tight End is a bit need area, and while not typically a first round position to hunt for, we do like the look of USC’s Jordan Cameron as an option at pick #16, though don’t count out a tackle or linebacker here, as there are several TE picks in rounds 2-3.
NEW JERSEY GENERALS (8-8)
NEEDS: G, LB, Hb, DE, FS
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: As always with the Generals, we look at Oklahoma first, and then circle back to see if Rutgers or Syracuse contribute anything. This year, OU has a HB in DeMarco Murray, but NJ could also go with Syracuse’s Delone Carter, who is going to come in at a much lower price. Since the position they seek is a backup to Maurice Jones-Drew, Carter may make more sense.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Help for Sam Bradford would be much appreciated. If one of the top 2-3 wideouts are here at their pick, they will likely jump on a receiver. If not, then offensive line is the next best way to help Bradford continue to grow into a leadership position.
NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS (9-7, Lost in Wild Card)
NEEDS: DE, T, TE, CB, DT
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: We love CB Patrick Peterson out of LSU and corner is a need for the Breakers, so this is a match made in heaven, if, and we stress, if, Peterson is willing to forego the NFL and sign for the Breakers. Another LSU option is at halfback, where Stevan Ridley would be a nice complement to the Breaker run game.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Defensive End or Defensive Tackle. Pick your poison. So much depends on which DE’s and DT’s escape the T-Draft. The Breakers absolutely need to improve both positions to compete with Nashville, as has been evident with their late season losses to the Knights in both 2009 and 2010.
LAS VEGAS THUNDER (9-7, Lost in Wild Card)
NEEDS: DE, OT, WR, CB
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: The Thunder have to be one of the teams most in favor of alterations to the T-Draft system. Their feeder schools (Utah, BYU, UNLV) are just not consistent enough in producing top tier talent to compete with other clubs in football rich areas. This year the Thunder might have trouble finding even 3 players to protect, which is not what you want.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Las Vegas needs a good open draft to have any young talent this year. The good news is that their positions of greatest need—OT, WR, DE, and CB—are all pretty deep pools, so someone with real talent will be here for them in the first round.
BALTIMORE BLITZ (10-6, Lost in Wild Card)
NEEDS: OT, DE, QB, C
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: We really like WR Torrey Smith, but it is just not a priority position for Baltimore this year, so they may let him go. It is doubtful they will pass on either CB Johnny Patrick (Louisville) or OT Byron Stingily, also of the Cards. Both fit the mold of what Coach Harbaugh wants, so we think they will be 2 of the 3.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Baltimore is looking for a backup QB for Roethlisberger, but we don’t see that being a first round priority, just too expensive to do that. So, in the first round a tackle or a defensive lineman seems more likely. Could be a tackle like Florida’s Marcus Gilbert, a center like Pouncey, or a top DE if any fall this far.
OAKLAND INVADERS (9-7, Lost in Wild Card)
NEEDS: HB, FS, G,LB, WR
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: Ricky Williams’s unexpected retirement has left a huge hole in the Invader offense. Oakland now has to scramble to fill a position that had been a strength. Cal offers them one path towards filling that space, with HB ShaneV Vereen, but we are not sure Oakland is in love with Vereen’s skill set. They could pass on the Cal back and go for a differen option in the Open Draft. One player we don’t expect them to pas son is safety Chris Conte, a player who fits their scheme perfectly and could be a Day One starter at free safety.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: If the Invaders do land Vereen, then HB is off the table here, but if not, then we may see Oakland looking long and hard at someone like Alabama’s Mark Ingram, Va Tech’s Ryan Williams, or Oklahoma’s Demarco Murray, all of whom could be solid options in a shared backfield with Jerious Norwood.
CHICAGO MACHINE (9-7, Lost in Divisional)
NEEDS: SS, FS, WR,CB
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: It is all about the defensive backfield for the Machine this year. So, do they find any help from Illinois, Northwestern, and Notre Dame? Not really. We don’t see any top prospects at either safety or corner coming from the T-Draft. Chicago will have to look at other positions in this portion of their draft strategy. DT Corey Liuget, HB Kyle Rudolph, and HB Mikel Leshoure are the best prospects, but none is a true position of need.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Safety and Corner are huge for Chicago, but not huge for most teams ahead of them, so the Machine may luck out and get one of the top prospects. We don’t see Patrick Peterson dropping this far, assuming he is somehow not protected by the Breakers, but we could see UCLA safety Rahim Moore,Temple’s Jaiquawn Jarrett, or UNC’s Da’Norris Searcy all being here at safety. At corner we can envision possibly Chekwa from Ohio State or Buster Skrine from UT-Chattanooga both being available, though we are not sure both are truly 1st round talents.
WASHINGTON FEDERALS (10-6, Lost in Divisional)
NEEDS: WR,DT, DE,LB, FB, K
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: Not a lot of top talent in need positions here for the Feds, though we think they will take a shot at CB Ras-I Dowling of Uva just because you can never have enough corners. Two interesting mid-round prospects out of Uva, Va Tech, and Wake are QB Tyrod Taylor of the Hokies, sort of a poor-man’s Michael Vick, and WR Dontrelle Inman of UVa, who is raw but teachable.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: We come back to D-Line again. Washington could go with a tackle or an end, depending on who is still on the board. If they have a shot at someone like Robert Quinn of UNC, that would be an excellent fit for them, but Quinn may not be dropping quite this far.
DENVER GOLD (12-4, Lost in Divisional)
NEEDS: C, DE, T,WR,LB
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: Hmmm, let’s see. Denver has a need at tackle. They have Nebraska as a pipeline for big hosses (as Keith Jackson would say) and just by chance Nebraska is graduating one of their best, Nate Solder, this year. Looks like a match made in heaven.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: If Denver can land Solder, that is a huge piece, but a center would be even bigger. The two we are looking at for the Gold, as always if not protected, are Pouncey from the Gators, and Penn State’s Steve Wisniewski.
ATLANTA FIRE (9-7, Lost in Divisional)
NEEDS: LB, FS, C, QB
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: LB Justin Houston is a no-brainer for the Fire, but our bigger question is whether or not Atlanta will go after A. J. Green, despite already having a pretty solid 1-2 option at wideout. This may be a perfect opportunity for a sign-and-trade deal, if Green is open to that.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Linebacker and safety are both key areas of interest for the Fire, so someone like Da’Norris Searcy or West Virginia’s Robert Sands could be a good pick here, or a linebacker like Aldon Smith or K. J. Wright if they are not locked in on Justin Houston.
PITTSBURGH MAULERS (9-6-1, Lost in Conf. Title Game)
NEEDS: HB, G, FS, DE,LB
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: No obvious HB help in the T-Draft for Pittsburgh, but several defensive options. We like DE Jabaal Sheard as a good option for the Maulers, as is CB Brandon Hogan of West Virginia, or fellow volunteer Robert Sands, the rangy safety.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: The Ronnie Brown signing from the NFL may well be all Pittsburgh does to address the loss of DeShaun Foster. Pairing Brown with Kenny Watson may be the solution, but it is a short term one. If they have a shot at a Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams, or Mikel Leshoure, they might want to build some long term depth at the position.
NASHVILLE KNIGHTS (10-6, Lost in Conf. title Game)
NEEDS: DE, DT, WR, CB
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: A bad year for Tennessee means a shallow pool for the Knights. We like TE Luke Stocker, but he is not a first round pick. The Knights could also look at WR Denarius Moore, who has shown flashes of talent, but is a bit raw.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: With KGB headed off to the NFL, the biggest obvious need is an edge rusher, but drafting 26th does not often mean a lot of top options exist. Nashville may need to move up if they want one of the true 1st round options, or they could stretch a bit and just pick the best DE available, which could be someone like Texas DE Sam Acho, Iowa’s Christian Ballard, or Miami’s Allen Bailey, all seen as round 2 talents.
PHILADELPHIA STARS (11-5, Lost in Summer Bowl)
NEEDS: OT, LB, DE, WR, SS
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: Philadelphia has several options across multiple positions. They could go O-line with Penn State center Stefen Wisniewski or Villanova OT Ben Ijalana. They could go for defense with Temple DE Muhammad Wilkerson, or even take a flyer on Nittany Lion HB Evan Royster.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: With Offensive Tackle their biggest priority, we think the Stars take a long look at that position. You have James Carpenter of Alabama, Gabe Carimi from Wisconsin, Marcus Gilbert of Florida, and BC’s Anthony Castonzo. So, the Stars are largely at the whims of the T-Draft and which tackle might escape unclaimed.
HOUSTON GAMBLERS (12-4, League Champion)
NEEDS: DT, OT, HB, QB
T-DRAFT PROSPECTS: We are intrigued by the possibility of a protégé for Matt Hasselbeck in Houston. They have the perfect candidate in TCU’s Andy Dalton. It means Dalton sits on the bench for a while, but if he is willing to do that, he could be in a prime position to be at the head of a top flight team in 2-3 seasons.
FIRST ROUND PROJECTION: Houston has more wants than needs. They want to upgrade, but clearly don’t have huge needs. This makes them a perfect candidate to either go with Best Player Available or to trade out of the round and pick up more mid-round picks. If one of the QB’s is still on the board here, there is no shortage of teams who would be looking to trade up to the 28th pick to nab one.