Divisional rivals clashed in 3 of 4 games this week, and we ended up with three very close games, including an overtime thriller in Pittsburgh. We also got our first true blowout this week as the Houston Gamblers proved to all who watched that they were a team to reckon with, winning their 11th straight game in convincing fashion over the Denver Gold. In all four games the higher seeds won, proving once again how valuable that bye week for the top 2 seeds in each conference can be. It sets up #2 vs. #1 matchups in both conferences as Nashville will take on the Stars in Philly while Pittsburgh will take their chances in Houston against the heavily favored Gamblers. We will recap all four Divisional Playoff games, preview the two conference championships, and take a look at updates from across the league as postseason turns to offseason for 4 more clubs.
ATLANTA 23 NASHVILLE 29
The Battle for the South turned out to be a really fun game between two teams that complemented each other really closely. Nashville took a 3-0 lead early and the Southeast and Southern champions traded scores throughout. The two traded field goals in the first half, with Nashville taking a 9-6 lead into the half. In the second half we finally got our first touchdown, but it came from the defense, when Kyle Orton tried to force a ball to Josh Reed and it was snatched by Nashville DB Tyrell Johnson and returned for 6. That gave the Knights a 10-point lead, but not for long.
On the ensuing kickoff, Andrew Woolfork wove his way 99 yards for a score, wiping out Nashville’s 10 point lead, and cutting the difference to only 3 points. A Nashville field goal would extend that back to 6, but Atlanta’s first offensive score, the first offensive TD of the game, would soon give the Fire their first lead, just as the 4th quarter began. The score came from Demaryius Thomas, the final play of a 12-play drive that was the best of the game for the Fire. Atlanta followed that score up with a field goal and had a 4-point advantage with 9:40 left to play.
But Nashville had the home crowd behind them, and a running game that was beginning to wear down the Fire defense. On a long drive that took nearly 5 minutes, Nashville went from their own 21 all the way to paydirt as Frank Gore busted through the line on the 9 and dashed his way to the endzone to once again put the Knights up. With time growing short Atlanta tried to go to a hurry up to respond, but that led only to a quick 3-and-out, and Nashville took over once again. They would add a field goal to take a 6-point lead, while also drawing the clock down to 1:42 to play. Atlanta would again work the no huddle, and again, Nashville would hold them without a first down, regaining possession after a failed 4th and 7 throw from Orton to Marcus Robinson. Nashville gets the win and moves on to the Conference Final.
CHICAGO 18 PITTSBURGH 24 OVERTIME
Despite being the lower seed, and on the road, the Chicago Machine were a 3-point favorite at Pittsburgh. That apparently did not sit well with the Maulers, but as the game began it did appear to be appropriate, as Chicago scored the first 12 points of the game, all field goals from Tim Seder. They scored on their first 4 possessions, all the while holding down the Mauler offense, picking off Cody Pickett in the process and limiting Kenny Watson to only 11 yards in the first quarter.
But, the tide turned as the first half was winding down. Pittsburgh put together its first real drive of the game, and with 55 seconds left in the half, they found paydirt, Pickett connecting with Matt Jones on a 20 yard TD that pulled the Maulers to within 5. They would go into the half trailing, but with some momentum against a Chicago club that simply could not turn drives into touchdowns.
Chicago would again settle for a field goal in their opening drive of the second quarter, and for the 4th time it was a red zone drive that did not reach the endzone. That would haunt them throughout the game. It did not take long for it to come back on them, as only 2 minutes later Pittsburgh equalized the score. This time it was a 22-yard run on a busted containment scheme that allowed Kenny Watson to scamper 22 yards for the score. Cody Pickett connected with FB John Kuhn for the 2-point PAT, and the game was tied up a 15.
As the game entered the 4th quarter Chicago again drove the ball and again had to settle for a kick, this time from the 39. They again had the lead, but the failure to secure a touchdown was beginning to prove problematic. Pittsburgh would equalize the score on a final drive field goal and the game would head to overtime, with a sense that a field goal would simply not be enough.
Both teams faltered in their initial attempts to score, but on their 2nd possession, the Maulers got the score that would end the game and send them to the Western Conference Final. IT would come with only 1:16 left in the extra period, when Brandon Jacobs broke a tackle, found the sideline, and raced his way to a touchdown, sending the Pittsburgh crowd into a frenzy and securing the playoff win for the Central champion Maulers.
WASHINGTON 19 PHILADELPHIA 24
David Garrard would get the start, but struggled as his injured ankle kept him from being effective as a dual threat. He would stay in the entire game, but would be limited to being a pocket passer. Washington also quickly found themselves down 17 points and that threw their plan of riding Deuce McCallister out the window. Down 17-0 at the half, the Federals needed to shake things up. They got the shake up they needed from their defense. A tip at the line led to LB Antonio Pierce snatching the ball out of the air and returning it 37 yards for a score, Washington’s first of the game.
The Federals would go on to add 12 more points and take a 19-17 lead over the next quarter and a half. On 4 drives they found themselves kicking field goals while the defense held Kurt Warner and the Star offense in check. Steve Slaton rushed for 132 yards, but the Stars simply could not get into scoring position, and the one time they did Mike Nugent missed on a 33-yard kick. When Doug Pelfrey connected from 41 yards out at the 1:22 mark, Washington had its first lead, a 19-17 margin that felt very much like the end of a long gradual comeback. Philadelphia had done nothing in the half, and now would have less than 90 seconds to get on the board and salvage a win.
The Stars had struggled to put together drives the entire second half, but they were still dangerous. Washington learned that quickly as Kurt Warner connected with Steve Smith on the first play of the drive. Only two plays later they would get the big play that had eluded them all game long. Warner pumped towards Smith again, the safety slid towards the speedy receiver, and Warner sent a ball deep down the seam, where TE Dallas Clark was open, with the linebacker trailing 2 yards behind. Clark would get a block from Reche Caldwell, and rumbled all the way to paydirt with the go-ahead score. 22 seconds left and the Stars had gotten the big play to avoid the upset. Washington would not recover, and the fans in Lincoln Financial Field would breath a sigh of relief as their Stars would move on to host the Eastern Final next week.
DENVER 16 HOUSTON 43
Denver may have felt that the Southwestern Division Title was unfairly pulled out from under them due to the league’s late confirmation that they had not locked the title up, but if there was any doubt that Houston was a worthy champion, they put that to rest with a thorough dismantling of the Gold. Denver may have come into the game angry, but they too had to recognize that Houston was simply playing better ball by the end of this game.
The game started well for Denver, as a holding call in the endzone gave the Gold the first points of the game, a safety against the Gamblers. They would add a touchdown on the ensuing short drive, Leinart hitting Dez White on a deep ball that gave Denver an early 9-0 lead. But that would be the high point of the game for the Gold. Houston would go on to score the next 33 points and by the time the Gold reached the endzone again, the game was out of their hands.
IT began with a Shaun Alexander 43-yard TD run, just one of 3 touchdowns on the day for the game’s MVP. Alexander would finish the day with his highest rushing total of the season, 143 yards, all against the #1 rated rush defense in the league. He would add a 2nd TD only 3 minutes later, then Houston went on to add a safety, touchdowns from Kevin Faulk and Vernon Davis, and a 43-yard kick from Carpenter to take over the game and take a 33-9 lead into the third quarter.
Denver would get back on the board with a Ringer TD run, but down 17, they would fall further behind when Shaun Alexander scored his third and final TD on the day as the 4th quarter began. Houston would milk the clock, Denver would try and fail to connect on big plays, and as the game wound to a close, Houston would emphatically take the win and end the controversy over who was the true champion of the Southwest. The 27-point victory was the biggest of the year for Houston and the worst loss of the year for Denver. The Gamblers move on and will now host Pittsburgh with a shot at returning to the Summer Bowl for the first time since 1996 title season.
Orlando Shopping Brees Around League
We have known that Drew Brees and the Renegades were not seeing eye to eye for some time, but now it appears that Orlando has made the decision to get top value for the former MVP and find a willing trade partner. While there is no shortage of teams that are in the market for a starter, and Brees is certainly a top talent, the price we expect the Renegades to be asking will be a steep one. Don’t expect Brees to be traded for less than 2 first rounders, perhaps more, unless, of course, there are players in the deal who could help cut down the draft capital cost. Orlando has the inside track on FSU QB Christian Ponder, a fact that certainly makes the potential trade of Brees more feasible. It also means that while Orlando might be open to looking at other QB’s, a trade partner might be able to make a deal that does not involve another QB, but perhaps players at other high need areas for the Renegades.
Who might be in the market? Well, if we look at teams that have clear need at QB and who have early draft picks that might be attractive to the Renegades, we have to start with Birmingham, holders of the #1 overall pick and a team absolutely in the market for a QB. With the #2 pick we have Ohio, another club that absolutely would love to upgrade the QB position. Others who could be prime targets include Boston, Portland, Charlotte, and Memphis. This is just the obvious teams. There are certainly many others who may have a viable QB, but who may be looking to upgrade. We could certainly imagine a trade where a team like LA or Texas makes a deal to send their young QB to Orlando along with some picks to get a proven winner like Brees.
Rumors Swirl that Mornhinweg Out in Chicago
Interesting news out of Chicago as stories have started to emerge that the Machine may be parting ways with Head Coach Marty Mornhinweg. While Mornhinweg has had Chicago at or near the top of the Central Division for the better part of the decade, including two Summer Bowl appearances, there is a sense that Chicago simply cannot take the next step. This week they once again bowed out of the playoffs, falling to the Maulers. Would Chicago really give up on the most successful coach in franchise history and one of the winningest coaches in the league? It seems a daring move, but if there truly is a belief that Mornhinweg cannot get the team one step closer to a title, they may just make the move.
While our bullpen staff certainly feels that letting go of Mornhinweg would be a big mistake, that sentiment is not shared with all fans in Chicagoland, and may not be shared by Chicago management. Again, these are just rumors right now, but where there is smoke there is often fire.
Retirements & Free Agency from playoff teams
Over the past 2 weeks, 8 teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, and that has meant not only new free agents but also a wave of retirements. We reported last week on the free agents whose contracts expired with losses in the Wild Card round, so this week we have the 4 divisional round losers freeing up several players, and we thought we would catch up on the later retirement notices as well.
New Free Agents:
ATLANTA: Some hits to the defense and the offensive line as Atlanta has 5 starters join the free agent pool, including LB Chris Miller, DE Eric Flowers, as well as O-linemen Charles Pitts and Chris Spencer. Cornerback Duane Starks is the fifth and final free agent out of the starters on the playoff squad.
CHICAGO: Chicago was hoping to resign both WR Anquon Boldin and SS Darren Sharper, but as of this week both are now free agents. Add to that list LB Rocky Boiman and cornerback Rick Smith. Expect Chicago to spend the next 2 weeks trying to resign one of their two big free agents before the open period begins following Summer Bowl 2010.
DENVER: Denver is in very much the same boat as Chicago, hoping not to lose WR Dez White, but struggling to find a formula that fits in the cap and meets the wideout’s demands for compensation. The Gold are also hoping that they can reach a deal with LB Dat Nguyen, whose absence was certainly visible in their loss to Houston this week. Others not signed as of today include punter Mike Barnes, center Mike Flanagan, and DE Kamerion Wimberley.
WASHINGTON: Eight players are now out of contract from the Federals’ roster. Among them are two important wideouts for the Feds’ offense, Eddie Kennison and Travis Taylor. The Feds are also looking at some key defensive contributors like DT Alan Harper, LB Mark Simoneau, and DE Greg Spires. Kicker Doug Pelfrey is also a free agent, but at 39 may well be considering retirement rather than relocation.
RETIREMENTS
In addition to the players who find themselves out of contract, there have been several retirement announcements from the 8 playoff teams eliminated over the past two weeks. Some will absolutely create ripples across the rosters.
LB Na’il Diggs (ATL): No sooner had the game ended in Nashville than Diggs announced that he had played his last game as a member of the Fire. His leadership as a team captain, as well as his play at linebacker will be hard to replace.
LB Akin Ayodele (DEN): Another linebacker announced his retirement, as Ayodele’s short-lived career in Denver comes to an end. Traded from LA midseason this year, Ayodele was expected to have an impact on the Denver D, and while his season was solid, it appears that the move did not sit well with the veteran linebacker, who is now opting to step away from the game.
WR Matthew Hatchette (LV): The 36-year-old Hatchette has spent the better part of his career with the Thunder, first in Portland, and throughout the move to Las Vegas. He retires after 14 years of catching passes for the Thunder, the only team he ever suited up for.
CB Tod McBride (NOR): The anchor of New Orleans’s secondary calls it a career after 8 years in the league, split between Philadelphia, St. Louis and the Breakers. McBride had a playoff season with the Breakers this year, but health concerns, particularly with his hip, have led him to step away at 33.
It is early, of course, and we expect that as we move further into the offseason, we will get both additional cuts from team rosters and additional players who are opting to step away from the game. As always, we will report on both developments through our offseason reports.
Two games next week, both with some significant injury news that could impact play.
NSH HB Cedric Cobbs (OUT), T Jon Stinchcomb (D), LB Terrell Suggs (Q),
TE Justin Peele (Q)
PHI T Jaimie Thomas (OUT), T Ken Shackleford (D), LB Ben Leber (P)
Philadelphia had a strong game this week, but losing OT Ken Shackleford will be a blow to the Stars as they take on Nashville’s defense. The Knights are also hoping that Terrell Suggs might just be able to make an appearance, perhaps on a “pitch count”, with limited snaps.
PIT HB DeShaun Foster (OUT), DT Dan Klecko (OUT), G Trevor Canfield (D)
HOU No Injuries to Report
Houston’s health advantage has certainly been a story this offseason, and while Pittsburgh found a way to cope with the absence of DeShaun Foster against Chicago, they have to be concerned after seeing how dominant the Houston offense was against Denver’s higher-ranked defense. If the Maulers get into a shootout with Houston, they will struggle to keep pace.
Could USFL Really Expand Again?
With expansion on the agenda for the upcoming USFL Owners’ Meeting, the question is being asked, could the USFL truly expand again. Let’s look at the pros and cons, and just where we think the USFL could and perhaps should add teams.
First things first, it should be acknowledged that there is a very good chance that the USFL owners will do as they have done in the past and set a date in the future as the earliest date to again discuss expansion. This is what happened after both the 1987 and 1995 expansions, when the the owners, in an effort to solidify the current league, set up a date no less than 6 years out before which the topic would not be broached and expansion would not be debated. While we could see this happening once again, and for the very same reasons as in the past, in an effort to ensure the competitive and financial balance of all current teams, there are lessons to be learned from both 1987 and 1995.
Perhaps the most damning lesson from both expansions is the fact that delaying or postponing expansion options was a contributing factor in seeing franchises relocate, which arguably creates more issues for the league than an expansion would. After the 1987 expansion, St. Louis, left on the outside, successfully wooed the LA Express to town, leaving the league without a team in the 2nd largest market in the USA. After the 1995 expansion wave repopulated LA and added teams in Atlanta, Columbus, and Seattle, we again saw some of the cities that did not obtain a club continue to work to acquire a USFL franchise. While the relocations of the Atlanta Fire to Boston, the Thunder to Las Vegas, or the St. Louis Knights to Nashville cannot entirely be attributed to the lack of expansion opportunities (each having its own internal dynamics), the fact that there always seem to be cities with stadia waiting, money available, and owners itching to invest does play a part in the pattern of relocations.
We believe the league would like to avoid further relocations, and while another round of expansion from 28 to 30 teams would not guarantee that no team ever looks for greener pastures, it does eliminate the biggest temptation in that the cities with the best opportunities, and the ownership groups already open to footing the bill, would be removed. But the honest fact is that another factor has to be the solidification of the most recent expansion clubs. When we look at the 1995 expansion, one of the reasons the original Atlanta Fire ended up relocating is because their lack of on-field development kept their revenue down. Yes, there were other factors (choosing an outdoor stadium in Atlanta for games in the heat of summer was not ideal), but Atlanta’s lack of early success also helped depress the club’s value and profitability.
The same concern could exist already for at least one of the clubs added between 2006 and 2008. St. Louis, now on its 2nd team, has failed to avoid the basement in its division in each of its 5 seasons, and has had 10 or more losses each year. Attendance has dipped, and there are concerns that once again the Gateway City will be a prime location for a poaching by an out-of-town interest. While Atlanta, Charlotte, and Portland have seen more success on the field, none of the three are out of the woods yet when it comes to long term viability. The debate now becomes whether it is riskier for the league to expand again at this time, stretching the talent pool even thinner or to hold off expansion and risk the possibility that a franchise (or several) will find themselves hemorrhaging money and seeking a quick solution with a sale and relocation to a new market. And there is no shortage of potential markets out there.
We are all aware of the investment group out of Dallas, known as Destination Dallas and fronted by tech billionaire Mark Cuban, but that is just one of several potential groups trying to bring USFL football to town. Not all are well organized, or well-financed at this point, but as with Dallas, all it takes is for one big fish to join the school and a group that may have looked like a non-factor can become a major player. USFL owners are, after all, businessmen, and that means that if a deal is out there, and if conditions are right, a sale and relocation can become a very attractive alternative to the rigors of owning a professional sports franchise, and the headaches it can produce. An owner who can make a tidy profit by selling a club, even if relocation of a team alienates that owner in his home market, is going to be tempted to take the money and run. That is what the USFL fears, as relocation creates an image of instability, which is never good on the sponsorship side, and market shifts can force renegotiation of media deals, which can get very messy.
We mentioned Dallas, and they are the city and investment group that is certainly triggering the discussion, but they are certainly not the only market or group hoping to find a way into the club. As a primer for the discussion on expansion and/or relocation, here is our list of the 8 markets that could be in discussion for the USFL as the owners look over the landscape.
1—Dallas: The obvious one, with a well-monied and well-organized bidding group and a stadium just begging for a franchise. The Destination Dallas Group has already been working with the city of Dallas to get renovations made to the Cotton Bowl to turn it from an occasional college bowl venue into a viable top tier USFL stadium. There is already considerable talk that if expansion is not a viable option within 3-4 years, that this group will start to branch out and speak with ownership of several existing franchises in hopes of bringing a team to Dallas sooner rather than later.
2—Miami: Can Florida really have 4 USFL clubs? That does feel like a stretch, but with all 3 of the current Florida teams doing quite well on both the attendance and financial side of the equation, the argument is there that Florida is prime USFL territory. With two viable stadiums in the city (Orange Bowl and Joe Robbie) as well as the option to expand FIU’s stadium in Fort Lauderdale, there is no shortage of venues. And while it seems very unlikely that one of the existing Florida franchises would relocate within the state, there are certainly other franchises that might be available for the right price.
3—Kansas City: A great football town, and a region that is somewhat under-represented. Kansas City has two big things going against it as an expansion site and as a potential relocation bid. First is size. KC is not a small market, but it is also not a high population, high visibility market like Dallas or Miami. There would be almost no benefit to the league to have a team in the city other than adding a 5th Southwest franchise. Now, if, for example a team from a smaller market were to make the move, that would be acceptable, we believe, so if, for example St. Louis were to continue to struggle, we could see them heading across the state. But what the league would not want is for a larger market club, someone like Boston, whose stadium issues are well known, to head to a much smaller market in KC. The other issue, and a pretty obvious one, is stadium use. Arrowhead Stadium is the only venue in town, and that would mean cutting a deal with Lamar Hunt and the NFL to get access. That could be possible, but would almost certainly guarantee that the USFL club would be a secondary tenant and get less agreeable terms as it relates to revenue from parking, tickets, and concessions. Not ideal by any measure.
4—San Diego: A larger market than KC, but also a 1-stadium site, and the stadium is by no means ideal. Qualcomm Stadium has history, but it also has issues. The NFL Chargers have been pushing for renovation for quite a while, and are running into a brick wall with every initiative. While adding another team to southern California is attractive, and adding a major market like San Diego would help with TV revenue, there is a belief that having LA in a pretty solid position is more important than adding a new market, and, unless the situation with Qualcomm improves, the city could be a low priority for the league.
5—Twin Cities: This has been a region of interest for the USFL for a long time. The Midwest is somewhat underrepresented among the USFL roster of teams, with only Chicago, Michigan, Ohio, and arguably St. Louis represented. Compare that to the NFL which has 8 franchises of its 32 in the region (Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Indianapolis). Adding a team in the upper Midwest would make a lot of sense, and the Twin Cities seems the best option there. Again, stadium issues would be a concern, though we could see the USFL accepting a deal with the University of Minnesota to play in their outdoor venue rather than trying to share the aging Metrodome with the Vikings and Twins. Ownership has not emerged out of the region to make an offer yet, but if expansion is on the table, we could see the area being an attractive market to target.
6—Virginia Beach/Norfolk: A contender in for one of the 2008 teams, this would be a “virgin” market for the league and for top tier professional sports. Currently the Tidewater or Hampton Roads region is the largest population area without a top tier sports franchise. There was an ownership group ready to go for 2008, so we could imagine one forming again if the opportunity arose. The biggest issue is that there is simply no stadium in place in the region which could even be quickly converted to meet USFL capacity needs, much less fitting the profile of a first class facility, with all the bells, whistles and luxury suites the USFL would want to see. That largely sunk the 2008 bid, and could be a factor in any future bid as well.
7—Oklahoma City: A growing region and city, with a growing sports profile after the arrival of the NBA Thunder. There have been talks in the city of building a football facility that would serve as both a neutral site for major college football games (think OU-OSU) but which could also be a viable USFL location. There is certainly no shortage of football enthusiasm in the region, but it is a small market, one that simply would not add any value to the TV deals that keep the USFL viable.
8—Toronto: The USFL, like the NFL, has been intrigued by expansion into Canada, but has been very hesitant to cross paths with the CFL and, very likely, the Canadian government. As we saw back in the 1970’s with the World Football League, there is serious interest in Canada for preserving the Canadian version of the game and the CFL in particular. Expansion into Canada, while attractive due to the sheer size of the Toronto (and Ontario) market, would almost certainly result in major legal and political opposition, something both leagues have been very cognizant of and very leary of provoking. It is a huge market, and a potentially lucrative one, but as long as the threat of legal opposition exists, it may be more of a false hope than a real option.
One last comment about expansion. As we saw with Chicago in 1987, Los Angeles in 1995, and both St. Louis and Atlanta in 2006, the trend of the USFL has been to use expansion to replace teams in cities devastated by relocation. If the league opts to delay expansion once again, that could very well be the scenario once again. If Dallas, for example, were able to lure away a team from a current USFL city, history tells us that the league will do what it can to repopulate that city with a new franchise. It certainly cannot be guaranteed, but that is the track record which has been established already.
Sunday, July 25 @ 2pm ET
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Vegas Line: Philadelphia -5
The Stars are heavy favorites to make their sixth appearance in the Summer Bowl, their first since a 27-20 defeat at the hands of Denver in 2000. Kurt Warner, Steve Smith, and Steve Slaton will take on a Knight defense that has proven effective all year long. Nashville knocked off Atlanta thanks to that defense, and now they head on the road to Lincoln Financial Field to try to rein in the Stars. Philadelphia has their own top-ranked defense, and enough firepower on offense to be a tough out for the visiting Knights. In Kurt Warner they have a potential MVP candidate, and they can balance out the offense thanks to the emergence of Steve Slaton as a 1,000 yard rusher.
Speaking of 1,000 yard rushers, Frank Gore will almost certainly be the focal point of Philadelphia’s defense. When he gets rolling early, the entire playbook opens up for Nashville, but if he can be contained, it reduces the effectiveness of Nashville’s play action game and forces Jay Cutler to stand in the pocket and take a lot of hits. Not a mobile QB, Cutler is susceptible to the rush, so Nashville needs to find a way to protect him by developing a solid run game early.
OUR PICK: We think Las Vegas got it right. We are going with Philadelphia to find gaps in the Nashville defense. Look for Warner to take a few shots early to Smith, and then that Philly defense will lock in on Frank Gore and make Nashville work for every yard. Our pick is Stars over Knights 24-18.
Sunday, July 25 @ 7pm ET
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Vegas Line: Houston -8
That is a huge line that Las Vegas has put out, a sign that all the action in the sports books has been on the Gamblers. Houston has won 10 games in a row, and have seemed to get stronger with each win. Their demolition of the Denver Gold has impressed both bettors and pundits. It certainly has impressed us as ell. Matt Hasselbeck has worked himself into the MVP conversation, leading the league in both passing yards and touchdowns, and the Houston D is also a pretty serious group, led by long-time standout DE Kavika Pittman, with a burst of new energy with the arrival of James Farrior from Baltimore.
So what is Pittsburgh’s best shot against the juggernaut Gamblers? They have to find a way to develop a run game with Kenny Watson. Watson has been solid in relief of the injured DeShaun Foster, but he will need to take it up to a new level in order for the Maulers to keep pace with what we expect to be a fast-paced and explosive Houston offense. The defense will need to focus on Hasselbeck and the passing game, which means that we could see a big game from HB Shaun Alexander. That may actually be the best possible option for the Maulers, forcing Houston to use the run game to slowly make their way down the field. If Pittsburgh can shorten the game by forcing the run and using their own run game to keep that clock ticking, they could find themselves in a close game, and in that case a takeaway or two could be the difference. If the game becomes a shootout, that falls right into Houston’s wheelhouse, and would be a disaster for the low-scoring Maulers.
OUR PICK: We are again going to go with the favorites. When you can win as many games in a row as the Gamblers have, it means you are not just good, but you have momentum and luck on your side. We were surprised by Pittsburgh’s success this year, and they certainly have a lot to be proud of, but this Houston team is looking very much like a team of destiny, and we are not going to pick against that. Our pick is Houston 31-20.