March 14, 2011
One week away from the 29th season of USFL football and the excitement is palpable. There have been a lot of changes this offseason, from one of the wildest drafts we have seen in years to a trade that sent two All-USFL quarterbacks to new homes. The NFL-USFL transfer window has had some results already, and it will remain open another two weeks, so there is still potential for more. As camps turn to preseason and now to the regular season, there is a lot to look forward to in the 2011 season. We start with our cover story, the Art of Winning. Just what does it take to bring home the John Bassett Trophy? In 28 prior seasons 14 franchises have held aloft the trophy, including the Houston Gamblers who won their 4th title in 2010. But what was the common denominator among them that helped them to that glorious moment?
THE ART OF WINNING
Winning. It is what the game is all about, it’s not everything, it is the only thing (to quote either UCLA coach Bob Sanders or Vince Lombardi, depending on who you believe.) It is the key to longevity, fame, and everything from endorsement deals to Hall of Fame jackets. But how do you do it? Every fall there are 32 teams trying to figure that out on a 100 yard football field, and every spring another 28 ask the same question and try to get the right answer. But here is the thing, the formula is not the same in both the NFL and the USFL It has not been since the early 80’s when the USFL first appeared on the scene, a wide open, fun-loving, unconventional league that promised more action and more excitement, and has been delivering ever since.
So, in the USFL what is the formula? What does the Art of Winning look like? We looked over the full history of the USFL, from that first title for Bandit Ball in 1983 to this August’s trophy held high by Matt Hasselbeck and the Houston Gamblers, the first team in the league to win a fourth title. We looked at what worked and what didn’t, and we think we now know the recipe for a winner in the USFL. Want to know it? Here goes.
1. Good QB Play. This is an area where the USFL and NFL do not diverge, though the definition of what good QB play is does vary league to league. The key it seems is not so much that you have the league’s highest QB rating, or even that you lead the league in yardage. It is about leadership, efficiency, and enough big plays to throw defenses off. In the early years of the USFL that meant the deep ball, then the Run & Shoot, and then play-action, but these days it is all about a QB who can read a defense, find the right man at the right time, and especially about accuracy. Complete 45%, 50%, 55%, even 60% of your passes and you are not going to get there, not like in the early days. You want a 65% completion rate, and if you can get higher, all the better. So, first step towards a run, consistent, quality, QB play and that means accuracy and decision making.
2. A “Take Away” Defense. What do we mean by this? We mean a defense that can take one of three things away. You don’t need all three, but you have to have one of them. That can be taking away the ball, winning turnover battles consistently. Or taking away the big play, forcing teams to move the ball slowly and over long drivers. Or, the third option, a defense that can take away the run game. Over the years, pretty much every title-winning team has had a defense that can do one of those things. Typically with the high-flying offensive teams, that has been a takeover magnet defense, even if they give up a lot of yards. With teams that have won the title with lesser offenses, it was usually because the defense could either force team to be one dimensional by stuffing the run, or a team that would just not give up the big play and would force offenses to go 12, 13, 14 plays without a mistake in order to score. So, a quality QB and defense that can force takeaways, long drives, or one dimensional offensive schemes.
3. Veteran leaders across the roster. It cannot just be the QB. You need veterans on defense, on the line, in the receiver group. You need calming influences, respected voices in the locker room, and folks who have seen a thing or two. Take Houston last year, not only did you have Hasselbeck under center, but you had Ike Hilliard keeping the receivers on task. You had Kavika Pittman riling up the young guys while James Farrior called out the plays and spotted the audible adjustments of the Stars. Even halfback Shaun Alexander is a wizened vet by halfback standards. Veterans recognize patterns, demand respect of the young guys, and avoid the rambunctious mistakes of youth.
4. Speed. Plain and simple, the USFL game is a game of speed. That can be speed at the receiver and running back position, but it can equally be speed among linemen, defenders, or between the snap and the release of the ball. The average USFL game is 17 minutes shorter than the average NFL game, despite both using a 60 minute clock. The average down time between plays is 7 second shorter in the USFL, and the average scoring drive is nearly 3 plays shorter than in the NFL. Speed between plays, speed at the line, speed on defense, and speed in adapting to change is the key to the USFL game, and speed kills.
5. Confidence. The last, and maybe the most important, factor in building a winner is building a culture of confidence. Go into a game knowing you will win, believing that you are the better team, and wanting to prove it each and every play. That is how you overcome adversity, how you wear down the opposition. Now, we need to be careful here. Bravado is not the same as confidence. Bravado is boastful and covers up a deep insecurity. True confidence is quiet. It is about doing your job, holding others responsible to do theirs, and not letting a bad game or a bad play shake you.
Winning is an art. Some teams have it, some don’t. You cannot buy it, you have to build that talent, hone it, cultivate it, and learn it every day. The USFL is about to enter its 29th season, and there are many clubs who have played every season without ever lifting the Bassett Trophy, while others have won 2, 3, and now 4 titles. What we can learn from that latter group is what it takes to win, and now that we have made the recipe public, who is ready to make it happen in 2011?
NOTE: The main image on the cover of the Kickoff magazine was my first dabbling into an AI generated design. I opted to go for the Bing AI Image Generator's impression of a "cubist" image related to the topic. Each week of the 2011 season you will find a similar image related to the focus city for that week. Just an interesting item for right now. I am still going to be generating most new images from either photos or my own designs.)
USFL & NFL Spar for Top Rookies Once Again
Difference year, but the same story. The USFL and NFL talent war was well on display this year, particularly because there were so many highly touted quarterbacks in this year’s draft. Once again, the USFL saw many of their top draft choices sign with the NFL, or I guess you could say both leagues saw the same phenomenon. In the end, 13 of the 28 picks in the USFL first round did not sign with the spring league but took NFL offers. When we look at the NFL Draft, 17 of the 32 first round NFL picks ended up in the USFL, so in both cases the USFL got the slightly better deal.
Of course, try telling that to the 13 clubs who spent first round draft capital on players only to see them opt for the fall. In fact, there was a run, from pick 3 through pick 10 in which the NFL signed 7 of 8 picks, with only Charlotte’s selection of center Mike Pouncy proving the exception. The USFL started strong, with Jake Locker agreeing to a deal with Boston and Marcel Dareus signing with Ohio, but then it got ugly. Von Miller opted for the Denver Broncos, Tyron Smith was next, then J. J. Watt to the Oilers, and Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan to the NFL Redskins. Birmingham got Cam Newton but lost out on A. J. Green. St. Louis’s pick, Prince Amukamara headed off to the NY Giants, and QB Christian Ponder opted not to go to nearby Tampa Bay, but heads off to chilly Minnesota to suit up for the Vikings.
Among the QB’s, both players selected earlier by the USFL in the territorial draft, Cam Newton by Birmingham and Ryan Mallett by Memphis, did sign with the spring league, as did TCU’s Andy Dalton with Pittsburgh, but Blaine Gabbert (Ohio), Christian Ponder (TBY), and Colin Kaepernick (OAK) all opted for deals with the NFL. Other first round talent that headed off to the NFL included WR Julio Jones (Falcons), DT Nick Fairley (Lions), HB Mark Ingram II (Saints), WR Jonathan Baldwin (Chiefs) and CB Jimmy Smith (Ravens).
All in all, over all 10 rounds of USFL drafting (3 Territorial Rounds and 7 Open Draft rounds), 196 players signed with the USFL from their 280 picks, which is not a bad percentage at all, but when we consider that only 107 of the 196 signees were also NFL draft picks, from the 224 players selected in the NFL Draft, it means that the USFL signed 107 shared picks and the NFL 117. The 47.7% signing rate is a slight dip from the usual 50/50 split, but well within the range of 45%-52% we have seen over the past 15 years.
Overall, the USFL has to be happy with that competitive balance, but, of course, for a team like Ohio, which hoped it had landed its QB of the future in Blaine Gabbert, or for Seattle, which traded up to get a shot at Von Miller, the inability to sign top draft picks is a constant frustration across the USFL. The same is true of the NFL, who cannot be happy that they lost out on 5 of their top 8 picks, including the Cam Newton, a #1 overall pick by the Carolina Panthers, and Jake Locker, chosen 8th by the Copperheads. Three of the top 4 defensive players in the NFL Draft (Dareus, Patrick Peterson, and Aldon Smith, also opted to join the USFL. And what remains abundantly clear is that the presence of the Territorial Draft provides the USFL with one of its best avenues for acquiring talent. Of the 32 picks the NFL made in its first round, they lost out on 17 of those choices, and of those 17, seven were T-Draft selections, including Newton, Patrick Peterson, Aldon Smith, and DE Muhammad Wilkerson.
After nearly 30 years of USFL football, it is a pattern we are all accustomed to, the annual battle to bring in the best of the outgoing college class, but every year it brings a mix of pain and pleasure, depending which team you root for, and which players fill the gaps on your club’s roster. The mad scramble once a top draft pick signs with the rival league is also part of the cycle of the spring. Examples like Boston rushing to sign NFL castoff Vince Young, or Tampa Bay signing Mark Cassel when they lost out on Ponder, are typical each February, just a part of the cycle of the year, one exacerbated by the proximity between the end of College Bowl season and the start of the USFL’s spring season. All part of the formula that coaches and GM’s must account for as they build their rosters each offseason.
Roster Moves Continue as Season Ready to Start
With so much going on during training camps and preseason, with late Free Agency, the 2nd NFL-USFL Transfer Window, a couple of training camp retirements of note, and all the movement on depth charts, we decided the best thing to do in each of our reports is to give you what we saw as the three biggest stories available and then a quick breakdown of other notable moves. Since we will break down each team in the second half of our season preview, we won’t hit every move here, but we should touch the moves that are creating buzz.
Once again, the transfer window, pushed back in the annual calendar last year, is proving an interesting challenge for USFL teams. Just as the NFL deals with in August and September, USFL teams must figure out if adding a player after teams are in camp is beneficial, and, in some cases, they must take the chance of going into the season with a position knowingly unsettled as their NFL import stays inactive until they can pick up enough of the scheme to effectively play. Teams that have a clear gap in their rosters try to sign NFL players quickly, to get them to camp and possibly have them available earlier, while others simply do what they can to get someone signed, even if it means that they won’t start in Week 1 or even Week 3. With that reality in place, here are the three biggest stories out of the Transfer Window so far (It still has 10 more days for late stories to develop):
OHIO PUTS THEIR FAITH IN VINCE YOUNG
Going into the Transfer Window, one of the more intriguing free agents within the NFL was QB Vince Young. The former Heisman winner had spent 5 turbulent seasons in Tennessee with the NFL Copperheads, starting 47 games and amassing a 30-17 record, but injuries impacted his game, and in 2010 he was demoted from the starting position in favor of unheralded Rusty Smith, despite having a 98.6 QBR. It was a bizarre move, made worse when team ownership announced that he would not be with the team in 2011.
Meanwhile, Ohio, still trying to find an answer after the retirement of Kerry Collins after the 2009 season, had made every effort to put themselves in position to draft Jake Locker, only to have Birmingham select the Washington QB and basically auction him off to the highest bidder, who turned out to be the Boston Cannons. Ohio had traded away significant draft capital to move back into the first round after selecting DE Marcell Dareus with their first pick. They drafted Blaine Gabbert out of Missouri, but within 3 weeks, Gabbert was happily holding aloft a Jacksonville Jaguars jersey for his new NFL team, and Ohio was staring at the same 3 QB’s they had for last year’s tumultuous 4-win season, Chris Redman, Derek Anderson, and 2nd year prospect Tony Pike.
It was clear that Ohio would make a play for a QB, and with Young available, he seemed the obvious target. It took only 2 days for the Glory to have Young to the team facilities in Columbus, and the very next day he was standing at a podium holding up his new Glory jersey. The move made all kinds of sense. Ohio gets a known commodity, though the injury issues are a concern, and they have a shot at having him start in Week 1 if he can pick up Coach Andrus’s system, a system the rest of the team was still trying to learn after over a decade with Al Luginbill at the helm. What added some drama to the situation was that this meant the Glory would have 5 quarterbacks in camp, having also drafted and signed late-round prospect Terrelle Pryor.
Young would get 1 series of action in Ohio’s preseason game against Texas, completing 3 of 7 passes before giving way to Dereck Anderson. And by that Wednesday Chris Redman was let go after over a decade as backup to Kerry Collins. Dereck Anderson and Tony Pike would be the backups and Pryor would be added to the practice squad. It is a rare move for teams to hold 4 quarterbacks, and the situation may change once the season gets underway, but for now, that is Ohio’s move. Coach Andrus has been mum over whether or not Young is ready to start in Week 1 at Pittsburgh. We well could see Anderson start at least this one game, with Young making his debut in the home opener against Denver. But, given the struggles last season, it will not be long before the Glory have Young under center and a new era begins for a team in major transition.
PITTSBURGH GIVES BROWN A SECOND CHANCE
Ohio’s opponent this upcoming week for the season opener, the Pittsburgh Maulers, had an issue of their own that was unresolved following most of free agency and the USFL Draft. The offseason retirement of lead rusher DeShaun Foster following injury issues in 2010 had left a pretty sizeable hole in the Mauler roster. Kenny Watson had done quite well filling in during Foster’s injuries, but few believed he could bear the full load of the Mauler’s run-heavy offense. Pittsburgh had failed to find a back in the draft, and while they had flirted with both Houston’s Tatum Bell and Tampa Bay’s LaBrandon Toefield in free agency, both would go on to sign elsewhere. It looked like the Maulers would have to go with Watson and short yardage back Brandon Jacobs.
Enter Ronnie Brown. The former standout at Auburn and backfield mate to Cadillac Williams, has had a turbulent 5 years with the Miami Dolphins. He rushed for 907 yards his rookie year and had his only 1,000 season the year after, but a combination of injuries and run-ins with the coaches have cut down his season averages ever since. He was cut loose by Miami at the conclusion of his rookie contract this past January. Pittsburgh swooped in and signed the former Dolphin, buoyed by his nearly 4.4 YPC average over his 5 years. Brown will almost certainly split time with Watson in the early season, and with the grind of playing in back to back seasons (Brown did appear in all 16 games and had 200 carries for the Dolphins in 2010), he may stay in a platoon situation, but he provides what Coach Rivera was hoping for, a way to keep defenses off balance and keep Watson from carrying the entire load for the Mauler’s run-heavy offense.
HOUSTON BEEFS UP LINE
The third USFL signing of former NFL talent to date remains on offense, as league champion Houston reloads after losing starting left tackle Mike Pearson in free agency. The Gamblers went big and it paid off as they land Pittsburgh Steeler LT Willie Colon to be Matt Hasselbeck’s personal bodyguard. Colon, who played 5 seasons with the Steelers, alternating between guard and tackle, came into his own in 2009, when he took on the LT duties and did not give up a sack in 16 starts. His 2010 season was cut short by an Achilles injury, but recovery has gone well and the former Hofstra lineman now looks ready to jump right in and help Houston make a run for a 5th title.
Other players who have signed and who you may see on the field for the USFL in the next 2-3 weeks include former Lions’ center Rudy Niswanger, expected to get some action with the Blitz as soon as this week; CB Jarrad Page, slated to start for Charlotte in Week 1; DE Brandon Mbane and TE Zach Miller with Seattle, former Raider wideout Derek Hagan, now with the Invaders, and Jacksonville’s new kicker, former Charger David Akers. We still have almost 2 weeks left of potential transfers, and there have been both visits to USFL teams and rumors of deals for several more NFL starters, including OT Tyson Clabo, LB Justin Durant, and HB Joseph Addai, who is rumored to be close to cutting a deal with the Birmingham Stallions.
Headed off to the NFL in the late transfer window (late for the USFL, nice and early for the NFL) we have several well-known names, including guard Ruben Brown, center Mike Flanagan, DE Craig Powell, HB’s Travis Minor and Ahmad Galloway, and QB’s Henry Burris and Jeff Garcia.
The past 6 weeks have not only seen teams enter camp and begin prepping for the year ahead, but they have also seen a flurry of last minute signings as clubs evaluate their needs after signing, or failing to sign key draft picks. Lots of new faces across the league. Here are the three top signings from the past month that we see having an impact in the 2011 season.
Atlanta Finds Veteran Leadership on the Line
The Fire had a better-than-anticipated 2010 and they are hoping to expand on that success in 2011, but one of their glaring issues was consistency on the front line. That may have been greatly helped this past month when the Fire came to a deal with All-USFL guard Leonard Davis. The 30-year-old former Outlaw is one of the league’s best and a leader on the o-line, beefing up not only the blocking for Atlanta, but the veteran presence in the O-line group. Expect the Fire to start Davis at RG to push a more balanced rushing attack left to right, but we would not be surprised if they, from time to time, moved Davis over to the left to help protect Kyle Orton’s blind side.
Charlotte Revamps Receiving Group with 2 “Senior” Signings
The Charlotte Knights wasted no time finding weapons for new QB Jake Delhomme. With D. J. Hackett still coming back from injury, Stevie Johnson now in Philadelphia, and Hakeem Nicks developing in his 2nd year, Charlotte went out and added two veteran receivers to the Monarch WR room, signing both former Thunder wideout Dereck Mason and the somewhat enigmatic Anquon Boldin. Both receviers have had something of an “almost but not quite” situation in the past, with Boldin toying with 1,000 yards on several occasions ever since he left Jacksonville, where his career had started with back to back 1,000 yard seasons in 03 and 04. Mason, who has been in the league since 1997 and will now spend his 14th season in the league with Charlotte, spent only 1 year in Las Vegas, but had a pretty good season, catching 80 balls for 888 yards and 4 TDs. We are not sure how Charlotte hopes to fit these two in alongside Hackett, Nicks, and Ashle Lelie, though we expect a lot of substitions and a lot of multiple receiver sets out of Jim Mora’s offense as he tries to make a push from 7-9 in 2010 to a playoff position in 2011.
Tampa Bay Hopes to Boost Pass Rush with Veteran Wiley
The Bandits surprised quite a few folks, adding a third bona fide pass rusher to a line that already included veteran Derrick Burgess and 2nd year player Jason Pierre-Paul. Adding 35-year old Marcellus Wiley, formerly of Denver and Memphis seems a short-term answer, but it is an answer to one of Tampa Bay’s biggest questions. The Bandits did not have a very formidable pass rush last year, with Burgess leading the team with only 6 sacks and Pierre-Paul seeing only spot duty in his rookie year. The hope had been that Pierre-Paul would step in immediately and add some youthful speed and power, but that just did not happen in 2010, so you bring in the veteran and hope that he can both mentor the young edge rusher and provide solid production this season. The record seems to indicate that he can produce, recording 10+ sacks each of his three years in Memphis. If he can do that, it may help Burgess increase his value, and may well provide Pierre-Paul with a model to follow. After all, in Wiley you have a player with over 100 sacks to his name as a mentor.
Other notable free agent moves over the past month include Orlando snapping up former Gambler LT Mike Pearson and LA jumping on Center Chris Spencer, both hoping their lines will be more formidable in 2011. Chicago solved their problem at safety by landing veteran Reggie Tongue, who had a solid year for Charlotte in 2010. The other prominent safety in the pool, Lance Schulters is now with the Express, who are trying to make up for Troy Polamalu’s departure. Washington resigned their All-USFL fullback Chris Massey. Oakland resigned safety Pearson Prioleau. And CB Antonio Cromartie finally committed to a USFL club, landing with Birmingham, the team with the most cap room available and the most they could throw his way.
Looking at who is still hoping to find a team, the big story seems to be at halfback, where several veteran backs remain unsigned, including Kevin Faulk, Cedric Benson, Chris Perry, and R. J. Redmond. We expect some will find homes in the NFL, others perhaps will sign in the opening weeks of the USFL season, but we may also see some late retirements.
Top 10 New Faces in New Places
Here is our look at the veterans who have changed teams and, very possibly, can provide a spark to their new club. These are players who are perfect fits for a new system, up and comers who could shine, or veterans with All-USFL pedigrees who are sure to add quality and leadership to their new squads. In other words, these are the players we think will have an impact in their new homes.
QB Vince Young (NFL to OHIO): The only NFL to USFL transfer to make our list. How could Young’s arrival not make an impact? After a very rough year in which they trotted out all 3 QB’s trying to find one who could produce consistent offense, the Glory bring in Young, who, when healthy, can be a player who can single-handedly lift up an offense. But he won’t need to do it alone, as you will see later in our list.
DE Marcellus Wiley (MEM to TBY): Wiley’s arrival by the Bay was outlined just above, but the key here is that the former Gold All-USFL DE, while not in his prime any longer, is not only going to contribute on the field, but hopefully will help the Bandits develop young Jason Pierre-Paul into a true force to be reckoned with when he is ready to step up and take on the starting spot on the left side.
SS Darren Sharper (CHI to PHI): The Stars lost a lot of players from their Eastern Title squad, but they got a solid one in Sharper. The former Machine standout will be a difference maker in the secondary for the Stars. He is great in coverage and not afraid to take on a big back for the needed tackle. We see Coach Harbaugh trying to bring him into run schemes as well as playing centerfield on occasion.
LB Mark Simoneau (WSH to POR): Portland’s defense had been led by Mike Maslowski (now with Oakland), so they went shopping for a MLB who could not only make plays, but help structure and lead the entire LB group. In Simoneau they get a veteran presence and strong leadership, honed in the NE Division battles that are among the league’s toughest.
WR Stevie Johnson (CHA to PHI): We spoke above about Charlotte’s revamped wide receiver corps. One of the reasons they needed to bring in some veterans was because of the loss of their top receiver from 2010, brash, outspoken Stevie Johnson. In Philadelphia, brash and outspoken is nothing new. After having both Steve Smith and Terrell Owens on their squad over the past few years, Stars fans are going to have no trouble adjusting to Johnson’s style. Now, if his production can come even close to Steve Smith’s from 2010, the folks in Philly will be more than happy to deal with some Diva attitude.
QB Jake Delhomme (MEM to CHA): No single move makes more of a difference to an offense than a QB change. After struggling with Chris Weinke at the helm (he remains on the roster), the Monarchs hope to make a jump up the standings by bringing in a proven veteran in Delhomme. He is not a flashy QB, not a gunslinger, but Delhomme can give Charlotte what they have not had in the past, poised, confident leadership.
CB Antonio Cromartie (PHI to BIR): The Stallions needed help on defense, lots of it. They had money to spend, and they spent it, and from that spending spree they brought in all kinds of talent, but the player we see as having the biggest potential impact is Cromartie. He has the potential to be a true shut down corner. He was dynamic for the Stars in their Summer Bowl run last season, and in Birmingham he will bring some swagger to a defense that has sorely lacked it over the past few years.
WR Steve Smith (PHI to OHI): We mentioned Smith’s departure from Philly in our discussion of Stevie Johnson. Now we need to recognize one more transition, from Joey Galloway to Steve Smith in Ohio. Galloway has been an icon in Columbus for a decade, helping make the Glory one of the hottest tickets in the league and leaving the club with 2 well-deserved championship rings. As with the departures of Collins and George, Galloway’s departure left a huge hole. Steve Smith is now tasked with helping Ohio fans move on. He is a very different player than the often silent, always professional Galloway. Expect Ohio fans to have to adjust to the louder, more demanding, more exuberant Smith. But, his on field performance will speak volumes for the Glory, especially if Vince Young’s arrival is all that Glory fans hope it will be.
SS Troy Polamalu (LA to ARZ): No player in free agency was more coveted, and for better reason, than LA Express strong safety Troy Polamalu. The 2-time All-USFL selection is one of the most intimidating and game-altering players in the league, and now the Arizona Wranglers get to set him loose on their opposition. Expect Coach Tomsula, a defensive-minded coach, to tailor the defense to best suit the close-to-the-line impact of Polamalu. From stuffing the run to blitzing the QB and intimidating receivers over the middle, the key to Polamalu’s game is that offenses can never be sure what his role will be on any given play and when he will just devastate a play with a huge hit or a key takeaway. Watching him play for the Wranglers, who tend to be an aggressive defense under Tomsula, should be some of the best viewing of the season.
QB Drew Brees & QB Eli Manning (Swapped between Orlando & New Orleans): No story is bigger this season than the stunning QB swap we saw with the Brees-Manning trade. It seemed to us somewhat unfair to focus on one of these two QBs more than the other so we are putting both together, after all, they will now be forever linked in the minds of fans. Which of the two will have more immediate success? Which can take their club farther? And who will win their Week 3 clash? Both clubs have weapons around their QB’s, but both also have questions, so this should be a story we will be watching with anticipation each week all year long.
TOP 10 ROOKIES TO WATCH
We are not going to highlight veteran additions to teams and then skip over the rookie class of 2011. This was one of the most hyped draft groups in the history of the league, largely due to the potential for 6 starting QB’s to come out of the first round, and while the USFL was only able to secure the services of 3 of the 6 top line QB prospects, the fact that they did that well is amazing in and of itself, and that the league was able to secure both of the top-rated, highest-profile QBs, Auburn’s Cam Newton and Washington’s Jake Locker, means the spring league is going to have our attention. But QB was not the only key position where the USFL did well and where rookies may make a big impact. We see these 10 players as potential break out stars from the 2011 Draft signings of the past month.
DE Cameron Jordan (NOR): Expected to plug in as the starting left end from day one, Jordan is an explosive speed rusher who will need to develop better instincts in the run game, but who could be an impact player on passing downs. He lines up opposite Ty Warren, so offensive lines are going to have to find ways to defend both edge rushers on every pass play.
OT Nate Solder (DEN): Solder and center Stefen Wisniewski are both expected to start on Denver’s rebuilt offensive line. Both will have to prove that they can hold up against talented USFL defensive lines. Expect Solder to begin the year on the right side, with Ryan Clady as the left tackle.
C Mike Pouncey (CHA): One of the highest touted linemen in the draft, Pouncey is already slated to be the starting pivot for the Monarchs. He joins a shaken-up line that now features Tyson Clabo at LT and Sean Bubin on the right side. Expect Pouncey to have immediate impact in the run game, good news for Fred Jackson.
DE Robert Quinn (BAL): The Blitz continue to reload on defense. Last year they brought in DE Joe Tafoya, and now they give him a young, energetic partner across the line. Quinn is more of a pure pass rusher, while Tafoya is stronger against the run, so it is no surprise that we have seen more of Quinn on the left side of the line in practice and in Baltimore’s one preseason game.
LB Aldon Smith (STL): Between Antowain, Aldon, and Antonio Smith, the St. Louis equipment team is going to have to develop a system. Coach Arians needs to see improvement on defense, and Aldon Smith is expected to make a quick impact as the weakside linebacker, chasing down backs with his sideline to sideline aggressive speed.
CB Patrick Peterson (NOR): The best corner in the draft will start this year as the #2 behind Randall Gay, but don’t be surprised to see Peterson start to get matched up with the deep ball threat on each offense as we get into the season. His speed and ball skills could lead to quite a few chances for picks as QB’s test this rookie out.
DT Marcell Dareus (OHI): A big man in the middle, someone who can hold the line and allow the edge rushers to work against single blocks, that is what Ohio is getting with Marcell Dareus. Coach Andrus has said he hopes to build up Ohio as a defensive-minded team, a new direction for the Glory, and it may start with Dareus holding down the middle of the line.
QB Jake Locker (BOS): It does not appear that Locker will start the opener, as Coach Fox wants to go with Adrian McPherson, but we expect that unless McPherson shines over the first few weeks, the move will get made sooner rather than later for the Cannons. Locker has the skills and the disposition to be a solid QB even in his first year.
HB Ryan Williams (OAK): A player who will get every chance from day one, Ryan Williams is replacing Ricky Williams in the Oakland backfield, and while he will not wear Ricky’s 34 the number he wore in college, out of respect for Ricky’s legacy, the new 33 will hope to have very similar success to his predecessor.
QB Cam Newton (BIR): The Stallions went all in on Newton-mania in Alabama. With only Anthony Wright left in the QB room from the 2010 team (Colt Brennan was also signed as a backup), the full weight of the Stallion offense will now fall on Newton. Of course, Birmingham used a lot of salary cap collateral to put some weapons around Newton, including NFL import Joseph Addai at halfback and rookie picks Jerrel Jerrigan and Julius Thomas at wide out and tight end respectively. Expect a lot of planned runs, and run-pass options in the mix for Newton, and, lest we forget, there is some real talent on the Stallion front line, with Jeff Backus at LT, Ben Grubbs next to him and John Greco on the right side. Protection should be solid for Newton, if he can process plays quickly and make the right decisions, he could be an exciting player to watch this year.
RISING, FALLING, AND PANICKING
With each new season comes a chance for change. Sometimes that change is an unexpected rise to the top, success that excites and engages the fans and brings a city together. Other times the change is a sign of decline, the passing of an era of success and the need to refresh and rebuild a franchise. Every team enters a new season hoping they are on an ascending path, headed towards the ultimate goal, a league title, but every year there are teams rising, falling, and a few panicking that their window for a true shot at glory is closing. We have selected three clubs in each category, the ascending, the declining, and the worried. Will 2011 verify these possibilities or will these clubs surprise us as some do each year.
RISING
It is not all that hard to pick a new division champion and say that they are a team in ascension, but in the case of the Maulers there have been questions. Last season saw the Maulers get over the hump and post a winning record (9-6-1) for the first time since the 2004 season, but what turned out to be a career-ending injury to DeShaun Foster cast a shadow over the club’s prospects for 2011. But we are still on board. It is important to remember that while Foster has been a key piece of the Mauler offense, his replacement, Kenny Watson, had several strong games in relief, including a 128 yard outburst against Houston in the Western Finals.
Add in former Auburn star Ronnie Brown, signed away from the NFL Dolphins, and Pittsburgh has a 1-2 punch that could prove very effective. And, just between us, we love the pick of Andy Dalton in this year’s draft. Yes, Cody Pickett had a solid season, throwing for 3099 yards, 22 TDs and 10 picks, but it seems clear that the Maulers did not have confidence in Pat White as a backup and may still be hoping for an eventual upgrade at the position. With Dalton, Pittsburgh can take a patient approach, testing out the strong-armed Horned Frog to see if he can offer more than Pickett in the long run. Add in a defense that finished 2010 third in points allowed and 2nd in yardage allowed and you have a very good formula. The Central is a tough division, but we see Pittsburgh not as an upstart any more, but as the defending champion with a very solid club that can compete to repeat in 2011.
Another division winner from 2010, but another team we think has not reached their potential yet. Atlanta’s 9-7 season provided them the city’s first division title. They got their first ever playoff win against New Orleans before falling to Nashville in the divisional round, but in 2011 this is a team that should not just be “happy to be there”. The Southeast very much feels like a division with a lot of evenly matched clubs all trying to find an identity, but Atlanta knows who they are. They are a club that plays good defense, rushes the ball well with Darren McFadden, and allows Kyle Orton to work through play action and a developing receiver corp. Josh Reed had a breakout season in 2010, leading the league in yards receiving and catching 13 touchdowns. In 2011 he will need help from others like 2nd year receiver Demaryius Thomas, TE Will Heller, and slot receiver Ted Ginn Jr. The defense could be even better than 2010’s 6th ranked squad with the addition of rookie LB Justin Houston and veteran MLB Ryan Nece. We see Atlanta as the team to beat in the SE Division, something no one has ever said about the Fire before.
The 8-8 Generals barely missed out on the playoffs last year, losing in Week 16 in a game that had the potential to put them in as a Wild Card. More importantly, they found a QB who could get the job done for their offense in rookie Sam Bradford. After 2 consecutive 10-loss seasons, an 8-8 record feels like the beginning of a new era in East Rutherford. Bradford was everything promised, throwing for 2,797 yard sand 14 touchdowns after taking over for Ryan Fitzpatrick in midseason. The Generals are so confident in their young QB that they traded Fitzpatrick over to Portland and replaced him with journeyman Jeff Blake.
The offseason for New Jersey was very promising as they retained the core talent on offense, added some support in the form of guard Adrien Clark and DE Aaron Kampman and rookies Will Rackley (G), Virgil Green (TE) and Delone Carter (HB). The key for 2011 will be further development of Bradford and his receivers, a deep group that includes starters Mark Clayton, T. J. Houshmandzadeh and Santonio Holmes, but which can also call on Michael Crabtree, Miles Austin, and rookie Doug Baldwin. The Defense was one of the league’s most consistent last year and adding Kampman to the line may help improve their pass rush. This is a team that very much looks like they could challenge Philadelphia this season.
FALLING
The Invaders limped into the playoffs last season, losing their last 4 games with Bob Volek at QB before being outsted in the Wild Card round by the Chicago Machine in an embarrassing 20-point loss (37-17). While a lot of Invader fans want to point to the absence of Joey Harrington as the reason for the club’s decline in the second half of 2010, the reality is that with the retirement of Ricky Williams, with Harrington’s long term health a question, and with a defense that showed signs of slipping last year, Oakland has more on their plate than just a QB recovering from injury.
Oakland tried to address the questions about Harrington, drafting Colin Kaepernick out of Nevada in the 1st round, but he signed with the NFL club across the bay and now Oakland’s QB room looks exactly like it did in 2010. They are hoping Harrington is fully recovered, but the lingering effects of his injury could be an issue. As for the HB position, they are putting all their faith in rookie Ryan Williams. But, while the last name is the same, the shift from Ricky to Ryan is a major shift in style. Ricky was a battering ram with break away speed. Ryan is more of a shifty “mogul skier” who likes to change direction more than take on tacklers. That will be a very different challenge for the Oakland line, which remains the strength of the team.
The other problem Oakland faces is that both Las Vegas and Portland are very much looking like true competitors for the Invaders this year, so the cakewalk of the Pacific Division is beginning to look like a much tougher path in 2011.
We may be a bit premature about this, but losing 7 games last year, and dropping games to teams Ohio, Seattle and St. Louis do not help us see this club as one gearing up for a title run. Chicago looked very good against Oakland in the Wild Card round, but fell flat to Division Champ Pittsburgh a week later. The core of the team remains the same, a defense led by Brian Urlacher and Anthony Weaver and a run game headed up by Michael Turner. But, we have to admit that all three of those stars are getting older and may have peaked. Brady Quinn is efficient but has yet to really prove he can win a game on his own.
Losing both Darren Sharper and Rocky Boiman from the defense is not a good place to start if the Machine want to retake the division. Reggie Tongue is a good replacement for Sharper, but he too seems to be on the downward side of his career. Chicago only signed 3 of 10 draft picks, which is not what you want to see for a club with an aging core. We think the chance is there for the Maulers, and possibly a revived Michigan club to leapfrog the Machine and with both Ohio and St. Louis building young teams, the Machine need to think about the short-term future rather than just immediate results.
We debated this one quite a bit. The Manning-Brees trade could be viewed as a positive step towards creating a new culture within the clubhouse, or it could be seen as a sign of desperation. We still love a D-line that features both Calais Campbell and Albert Haynesworth, but worry that the squads behind it, linebackers and DB’s may not be strong enough to ensure that Orlando can keep teams off the scoreboard. And while we think Eli Manning can get Orlando some wins, his playoff record is not exactly stellar. Michael Jenkins is a legitimate #1 target, but we are not as sure about the rest of the receiving corps (McCaerins, DeSean Jackson, and Dwayne Bowe). The key to the passing game may be TE Greg Olsen and the ability for Manning to use play action with Knowshon Moreno, but to do that, Moreno is going to have to improve on back to back seasons below 4 yards per carry.
With Atlanta ascending, and all three other teams in the division only 1 game back of Orlando (7-9 v. 8-8), the Renegades are facing a division where all 4 opponents could legitimately pull off wins any week they play. There will be no rest for any SE Division club during the season, and we are not feeling confident that Orlando is the club that will come out on top when all is said and done.
PANICKING
Jake Plummer is no spring chicken anymore. His style, throwing his body into the fray, has aged it further than his 34 years would anticipate, and we are not so sure that the Thunder, in their current form, can hold together for much longer. What should worry everyone is that the defense that Coach Glanville built the Thunder with has completely fallen apart after 1 year with June Jones at the helm. Las Vegas ranked 24th in both yards and points allowed, which just feels like a bad omen for a club that built their success on defensive strength. The other big concern right now has to be that Jones’s spread style run & shoot depends on two things, a back who can operate in a 1-back set with no tight end, which Lynch certainly fills, and a deep group of speedy, smaller receivers. There is the problem. When we think of the Run & Shoot we think of Houston in the 90’s with Sanders, Verdin, Robert Johnson, and McNeil. When we look at the Thunder receiver group, we see Marty Booker, Kahlil Hill, Willie Ponder, Samie Parker, and Kili Lefutu and we are just not seeing how that group delivers on the promises of a Run & Shoot. The question for Las Vegas is not whether or not they are running out of time, but whether or not they have a roster that can actually succeed right now.
Seattle is the more classic “the window is closing” squad. Neither Byron Leftwich nor David Boston are going to be around much longer. DE John Abraham seems to be slowing down, and we are not seeing the production from younger players like Jahvid Best and Marcus Truffant that we might hope for. On defense, we are looking at 3 of the 4 starting linebackers having over 10 years of USFL service, so great leadership, but bad knees. The Dragons did add a promising rookie in Akeem Ayers out of UCLA, but they have had only hit & miss luck with rookies in recent years. In a division that has a lot of questions, Seattle could surprise us, but if they cannot make a run this year, it may well be time to consider a roster overhaul.
Look, we get it. There is a ton of talent on this Michigan team, and they very well could rise right back up and dominate the Central this year, if Griese is healthy, but their QB’s injury last year put into clear relief how fragile a team’s competitiveness can be. Michigan struggled through a year in which their offense was just not capable of functioning without their leader, averaging only 18 points per game (24th of 28 teams0 and only able to barely scratch 200 yards passing per game. So, here’s the thing, the Panthers did nothing to improve their depth at QB. They are still looking at Tyler Thigpen and Drew Stanton behind Griese. That does not build confidence that they could survive another injury.
We do like the addition of Wisconsin road grater Gabe Carimi in the draft. He slots in at LT from day one, allowing Patrick Chung to remain a force on the right side. We are still waiting to see if putting the run game on NFL import Thomas Jones is a shrewd move or a false hope. The receiving corps is solid, with Ward, Coles, and Manningham taking the lead, and the defense has some difference makers in Jevon Kearse, DeMarcus Ware and Deltha O’Neal, but we are just not sure that the 16th ranked squad from last year is all that much better this year. Can getting Griese back be enough to turn mediocre results into dominant ones?
EXPANSION REPORT REVEALED
We finish the first part of our season preview with the news out of this week’s Owner’s Meeting. As expected, the Expansion Task Force presented their report, and somewhat predictably, the league owners fell in line with the proposals within that report. What many consider to be good news for clubs like St. Louis, Charlotte, and Portland, still trying to find themselves, can be read as potential bad news for cities whose clubs are struggling with tough stadium issues or lower revenue streams.
As expected, the report first identified a 2-team expansion as the ideal, allowing the league to remain in a 6-divisoin format while adding 2 more teams to bring each division to a balanced 5 teams apiece. That will benefit the schedule-makers as it means all 30 clubs would have the same number of divisional games to plan for, while still requiring that at least 1 team in each division each week is playing a non-divisional game.
The second piece of the report stressed the importance of talent acquisition and equity among clubs. That is where the question of rapid vs. delayed expansion came to the fore. The arguments were made on both sides, concern over franchise relocations if the expansion was delayed too long, but also concern that the 2006-2008 expansion still has not produced a lot of balance across the league, with many feeling that the next expansion should only come after we see all 4 recent expansion clubs as competitive (looking at you St. Louis). The report recommended a window between 2018 and 2020 for the next expansion, with 2 clubs added, preferably one in the Southwest (Dallas seems the obvious choice) and the other in the Southern Division (no obvious choice here, though we could see Miami coming into play).
That timeline is unlikely to satisfy the bidding groups already working on stadium deals, including the approved stadium upgrade for the Cotton Bowl already in the works. Will Destination Dallas, San Diego Spring Football LLC, and other groups be content to wait 7-10 years to get a team? That seems very unlikely, particularly in the case of Dallas, and its lead owner, Mark Cuban, not known as a patient, long-term vision kind of guy.
The owners approved the basic tenets of the proposal, so the timeline is in place, with plans to explore expansion beginning in 2016, two years before the earliest window permitted for new franchises to join in. There will be, apparently, no planning for just how to format an expansion until then, which means that those bidding groups either have to start planning for a long delay in starting their main operations, or they have to look for alternatives. The truth is that several owners in the course of discussions seemed to actually prefer a situation in which some of the clubs considered relocation instead of the league expanding again. It seems clear that while some owners are either not pleased that some franchises are lagging behind others in revenue generation, and some simply do not care for the lead owners of other franchises, the overall consensus is that only if a sale and relocation could be proven to benefit the league as a whole, moving a team from a small market to a huge MSA, for example, would it be viewed as a positive rather than a disturbing sign of instability, one likely to scare off some sponsors.
So, what comes next? Well, that is really up to the groups seeking a franchise. They can play nice and wait their turn, but that hardly seems likely. More possibly, one or more will start looking at current teams and trying to find the weakest gazelle in the herd. Expect to see some wooing, some cajoling, and even some efforts to encourage clubs to pressure for a new stadium, in hopes that failed ballot initiatives or reluctant local governments will convince current owners that sale may be their best option. Right now, we see Boston, Oakland, and Las Vegas as the toughest stadium situations in the league, but certainly not the only cases where ownership could be swayed by a convincing argument to sell and a big bag of money at the other side of the table. For the rest of us, particularly fans of those clubs and others, it seems we are going to have a rough ride for the next few years.