A really fun week of playoff football as we witnessed an upset no one saw coming, a defensive struggle, and two dominant performances by home favorites. Texas and Tampa Bay proved to us why they are Summer Bowl contenders with convincing wins at home, both clubs taking early leads and just pulling away over time. We had a nice game between the Wranglers and the Maulers, one that was controlled by Pittsburgh’s D, but which stayed close enough for Wrangler fans to have hope up until the final seconds, and we had a huge upset as the wounded and cornered Philadelphia Stars rose to the occasion, fought back in the final minutes, without their superstar QB, and upended the number 1 seed Washington Federals in RFK, a bitter defeat for the home team, but a historic win for the Stars. We will cover it all right here, and take a look at two very intriguing Conference Finals, plus a check in on the free agent pool, and a couple of intriguing bits of player news from the pre-Free Agency period. All coming up right here.
As a general rule, if you are only going to convert 1 third down all day, try to keep the opponent from converting 75% of theirs. That is the number that stands out from the Bandits’ dismantling of the Baltimore Blitz on Saturday. That and a 455-286 yardage advantage. The Bandits’ D locked down on third downs all game long and that meant that Blitz drives sputtered to a halt outside of scoring range far too often.
Meanwhile, Willis McGahee and Daunte Culpepper had no difficulties with the Blitz’s defensive scheme. McGahee rushed 24 times for 114 yards and a score. Culpepper threw for 298 yards and 3 scores as Tampa Bay took a 14-3 halftime lead and extended it in the second half, pulling away and ending the game well before the whistle blew. Down early, Baltimore had to abandon their plans to use Ron Dayne to milk the clock. Dayne would finish the day with only 13 carries as early TDs from Chris Doering and Willis McGahee forced Baltimore to play catchup.
Doering would catch a 2nd TD pass in the 4th quarter and Culpepper would also find former Ohio Glory receiver Joey Galloway for a 3rd TD as Tampa Bay thoroughly dominated and set up an Eastern Title Game at home as the top seed remaining in the East.
The Outlaws were also inhospitable hosts for the visiting Express. They too jumped out to a significant first half lead, forcing LA to settle for field goals on their two scoring drives, while the homestanding Outlaws got two first half Flacco-to-Cooley TD passes, along with a Rian Lindell kick, to build up an 11-point halftime lead.
LA was game, as Mark Sanchez completed 31 of 45 passing, but the need to settle for field goals was a theme of the day, with LA adding a 3rd early in the second half to pull within 8. But while the Express struggled in the red zone, Texas did not. They would add a goalline TD pass to Marques Colston and a Duckett 2-yard run in the 2nd half and pull away from LA long before the Express finally found the endzone in the final minute of the game.
The win sends Texas to the first Conference Title Game in franchise history. They would have to wait to see the result of the Wrangler-Mauler game, where they would oddly find themselves rooting for division rival Arizona to ensure that the title game would be in San Antonio, but on Saturday night those concerns were not formed yet. It was just time to celebrate as Texas moves on to the conference title game.
In an odd bit of scheduling, due to Pittsburgh being in the Eastern time zone, the Western divisional game was scheduled before the Eastern. That was no concern for the Maulers, but meant an early start for Arizona, who had to fly east and adjust to the 2-hour difference in kickoff time. But, the bigger issue for Arizona was not the timezone, but that nasty defense of the Maulers. Arzona, like Baltimore before them, would struggle to convert on 3rd down, achieving the feat only twice in 10 attempts. They would also find absolutely no room for LaDainian Tomlinson to run as the 1,000 yard rusher ended the game with only 23 yards on 11 carries.
Pittsburgh, while certainly not putting up huge numbers, at least got a decent showing with 81 total rush yards between Brown and Watson. Both Mauler backs also scored, putting up the first 14 points on the board. As we saw in both of the Saturday games, early leads of 10 points or more were enough in each game to force the opposition out of their early game plans. Arizona started to emphasize the pass, which proved disastrous as Pittsburgh accumulated 9 sacks of David Carr in the game. LB Keith Bullock and DE Jared Allen both got to Carr twice, and 5 other Maulers also found their way to the Wrangler QB, who spent most of the game either dumping the ball off quickly or taking a hit for holding it longer.
Arizona did get a late TD from Tomlinson to pull within 3 at 14-17, but Pittsburgh added a field goal within 2 minutes, holding the ball and forcing a desperate late Wrangler drive that failed to produce points. Pittsburgh’s win means they, and not Texas, will host the Western Conference final, what should be a great matchup of the Maulers and the team that shocked them only a month ago.
Looks like it is time for our staff and many others to eat some crow. Few gave Philadelphia much of a chance as they headed into their big game with Washington absent their All-USFL QB Kurt Warner. But this is a plucky and determined Stars team and those qualities showed up in spades as they forced the division champions into a hole after 3 quarters, and, when the Federals pulled ahead, they came back with a late TD that shook RFK Stadium to its foundations.
The Stars started off about as well as a team can, with LB Sean Lee snatching away a David Garrard pass and running it back for a score in the opening minutes of the game. That was followed by a 17-play drive by the Stars offense, using every weapon available to them before handing the ball to Steve Slaton on the 1-yard line and having him plunge in behind the left guard. Philadelphia, the underdogs, were up 14-0 just 6 minutes into the 2nd quarter.
Washington would pull the game back to a 7-point difference with a long Garrard to Kellen Davis TD pass, but with the only points in the 3rd quarter being a Mike Nugent field goal, Philadelphia went into the final period up 10. Along the way, the Stars offensive line played like true champions, winning the battle at the line of scrimmage and giving backup QB Matt Gutierrez all the protection he would need. Washington blitzed, twisted, stunted, all to try to get to Gutierrez, but to no avail.
But the Washington offense also had its moments, and in the 4th quarter they erased the 10 point Stars lead, thanks to a Chris Massey TD and a pick-six of their own. It was Gutierrez’s one bad play of the game, throwing late towards Reche Caldwell, allowing Sheldon Brown to step in front of the pass and return it for a score that would put Washington up 21-20 with 4:27 left to play. The Federals would add a field goal just 2 minutes later, and with 2:25 left to play the Stars’ bubble appeared to have burst. Down 4 with just 1 time out left and a TD needed, it looked bleak.
But, rather than fold, the Stars rallied, with the O-line giving Gutierrez time and the receviers finding gaps in the Washington zone. The backup QB hit Stevie Johnson for a huge 24-yard play, then TE Brent Celek for 11, and Michael Newhouse for 9 on a key 3rd and 7. With 33 seconds to play, they had the ball inside the 10, and Gutierrez called what would be the winning play, a cluster formation that would allow slot receiver Troy Williamson to take advantage of some rub routes to get free from the nickel back. The play worked to perfection and Gutierrez found Williamson all but uncovered on the left sideline. He zipped the ball to the small receiver, who took it in stride and dove for the pylon. It took over 3 minutes for the review to confirm what most of the fans at RFK dreaded. Philadelphia touchdown and the Stars took both the lead and the game.
It was a gutsy performance from the Stars, their line, their receivers, and their defense, but Philadelphia was moving on to the Conference Title Game. They now travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Bandits for the right to play in the 2011 Summer Bowl.
Playoff First as Center Matt Birk Gets POTG Honors
We have never seen it before, but this week the USFL declared that Matt Birk, the Philadelphia center, and captain of the line was the Player of the Game for the Stars’ upset of Washington. There were other options, particularly LB Sean Lee, whose pick-six sparked a strong first half for the Stars, but when we look at the game film, there is a very good reason that Birk was chosen.
Protection and run blocking were key for the Stars to have any chance against the Federals, and Birk led a line that played about as well as we have ever seen from a unit. Not only did Birk record 10 pancake blocks on the day, a ridiculous number against as good a line as Washington has, but his leadership, calling out plays and adjustments, kept the Stars unit working as one, both in the run game and particularly in the final drive that allowed the Stars to take the victory. It is a rare thing for any lineman to get recognition, so we salute Birk and the entire Stars line for the honor this week.
McGahee Magical in Bandit Win
Is anyone really surprised that Willis McGahee was a focal point for the Tampa Bay offense this week? When McGahee goes over 100 yards rushing, the Bandits win. It is that simple. Add in a key play, a short pass that the back turned into a 39-yard scamper, and you have impact in the passing game as well as on the ground. Yes, the Bandits have a lot of weapons, not the least of which is 2-time league champion Joey Galloway, but for our money, the secret to the Bandits has been, and remains, their halfback and his ability to make plays in space. Something the Stars may want to focus on this week.
Moss Fumes About Missed Opportunities
Randy Moss was targeted 9 times in the game against Texas this week, and he caught 7 of those, but he is not touting that, he is fuming over two other opportunities that did not go his way. Moss, speaking on ESPN radio this week, was livid that he is not being targeted enough by Mark Sanchez and the Express offense. He cited two plays in particular, stating he was open deep but Sanchez checked the ball down to the middle of the field. Tape of the game shows he was not wrong, though certainly the design of plays to a degree determines the QB’s progression. There was a play early in the 2nd quarter, and another in the 3rd, where Moss had beaten his defender and a well-thrown ball along the sideline could have resulted in 6 points, but on both occasions Sanchez looked elsewhere, connecting with L. J. Smith on one case, and missing a pass to Keyshawn Johnson on another.
Prodded to speak about the disappointment of losing on Saturday, Moss would not lay blame by naming names but it is clear that he believes that the offense of the Express is too conservative, too focused on achieving first downs and hesitant to look deep. Whether he puts the blame for that on QB Mark Sanchez, Head Coach Gregg Williams, or OC Steve Fairchild is not known, but what is clear is that Moss is going to keep asking for the ball, and the Express should have known this about him when they signed him.
Mauler D Manhandles Wrangler O-Line
We went back through the tape of the 20-14 Mauler win over Arizona this week looking for a key to the game, and it became apparent pretty quickly that there was one unit that was simply outclassing their opposition. Pittsburgh’s D-line, mad up of ends Jared Allen and Jerome McDougle and tackles Amobi Okoye and Dan Klecko, simply dominated the Wrangler offensive line. Whether on pass plays, with David Carr running for his life and sacked 9 times, or in the run game, where LT was held to only 2.1 yards per carry, the Wrangler offensive line simply had no answers.
We all knew that the Maulers love to blitz, it is part of who they are, and they did, on 45% of passing downs, and on 21% of first downs, but it seems clear to us tha they did not need to . Even on the plays when they did not send additional rushers into the line, they simply overwhelmed the Wranglers up front, winning battles across the line and disrupting blocking schemes and playcalls all day. If Pittsburgh can get a similar performance out of this group against a Texas line that is likely to have 2-3 All-USFL nods, then the Maulers may well be purchasing tickets to Memphis and the Summer Bowl.
Good news across the league as we have three of four teams that have not added any new players to their injury list. The one exception is Texas, who have listed backup Sage Rosenfels and linebacker Jonathan Moulton as probable. Moulton is the bigger factor here as he is a key member of the Outlaw defense, but if he is probable, then we expect he will actually see the field. All other injuries, including that of Kurt Warner, are from prior weeks and each team has worked their way through the options to replace or cover for that missing player, so we enter the Conference Finals with a pretty good sense of what to expect from each club.
Chad Johnson to Generals?
While free agency does not begin for another 2 weeks, players are certainly allowed to speak with other teams, to visit other facilities, and to get a sense of where they want to be. They just cannot sign on the dotted line. So, when Chad Johnson appeared in East Rutherford, chatting with Sam Bradford and Herm Edwards, it was very much a part of his plan to find a new home with an established QB and a shot at team success. New Jersey may not seem like the optimal location, but there are few current playoff teams that are desperate for a new number 1 receiver, and few non-playoff teams that have a young and talented QB. New Jersey makes sense, it also happens to be a team with a pretty spacious salary cap shortfall, which means they have the funds to sign someone like Johnson if that is their interest.
Certainly New Jersey will not be the last team Johnson and his agent engage with over the next 2 weeks. Rumors already have him talking to New Orleans and Orlando, but it is an intriguing option, particularly since that would mean twice annual matchups against Boston.
Cutler Seeks Trade After Rough Playoff Ouster
The season did not end the way that Nashville fans would have liked, with 4 straight regular season losses, including a devastating 14-6 shutdown in the home finale against New Orleans and then a beatdown by Baltimore in the Wild Card round. Well, apparently, one player who is more than a little unhappy not only with the way the season ended, but by the entire season and how he was utilized is Nashville QB Jay Cutler. Reports this week have Cutler demanding of the GM that he be traded, stating that he cannot continue to be held back by Coach Johnson’s run-first philosophy. Honestly, trading Cutler and starting fresh may just be the move that the Knights, and Coach Jim Johnson, need to reinvigorate the franchise and an increasingly uncomfortable culture of “just good enough” within the team.
Now, we are not sure what Cutler believes he can do in another system. Honestly his numbers have never been that great with Nashville. In fact, over his 5 seasons in the league, this year’s numbers are the best he has ever posted. He finished 2011 with nearly 3,500 yards passing, a 67.1% completion rate, and a 20:16 (5:4) TD:INT ratio, all the best of his career. That said, he also finished with only an 83.7 QB Rating. Cutler has yet to finish any season with a Top 5 rating, but perhaps he believes it is the system that is producing these less than all-star results. If that is the case, going to a new location, with a new coach, could be a solution. At worst it will prove that it was him all along, and not Coach Johnson’s conservative approach to offense that led to mid-range results.
Is Nashville open to the idea? We believe they might be, particularly if they feel they have a shot at acquiring a young gun at QB who could help them right away. With a mid-to-late draft pick, that won’t be Andrew Luck of Stanford, but could be a player acquired in trade, or could be a late 1st round QB like a Ryan Tannehill of Texas A&M. Of course, with the new rule in place this year, Nashville could take a shot at either Luck or Baylor’s Robert Griffin III if they are willing to trade open draft picks to acquire one of Oakland’s or Texas’s Territorial Picks to land one of the two QBs. That would make things interesting.
Free Agent Pool Expands with 8 Playoff Teams Eliminated
With 8 teams now out of the postseason, the free agency pool continues to grow. Again, these players cannot be signed by any club until Free Agency officially opens in 2 weeks, but they can speak with other teams. Here are the 3-5 players from each eliminated playoff team that could garner some attention in the marketplace.
ARIZONA: CB Jimmy Williams, WR Kassim Osgood, DT Kimo Von Oelhoffen, QB Dave Dickenson
BALTIMORE: HB Antonio Pittman, FS Shaunard Harris, WR Doug Gabriel, QB Chris Simms
CHARLOTTE: G Sean Locklear, WR Anquon Boldin, TE Anthony Hill, LB Raynoch Thompson
LOS ANGELES: FB Casey Kramer, CB Terrence McGee, CB Renaldo Hill, HB Cedric Houston, WR Eddie Kennison, WR Bernard Berrian
MICHIGAN: WR Laverneous Coles, TE Bennie Joppru, OT Breno Giacomo, CB Chri Canty, DT Igor Olshansky
NASHVILLE: G Jeb Terry, P Sam Koch, DE Quintin Moses, OT Jason Fabini, QB Chase Daniel
OAKLAND: FS Roman Harper, FB Marcel Reese, WR Joey Jamison, C Jeff Saturday, LB Brendon Ayanbedejo
WASHINGTON: CB Brandon Flowers, G Scott Tercero, OT Matt Stinchcomb
Of this group, we see a lot of market value for Raynoch Thompson, Roman Harper, Renaldo Hill, and Jimmy Williams. We doubt that Oakland let Jeff Saturday go without a clear message from him that he is going to retire. Much the same for Eddie Kennison of LA.
Could we really get an All-Pennsylvania Summer Bowl? Well, the Stars and Maulers are both still alive as we enter the Conference Title Games, but while Pittsburgh is at home, the Stars, still without Kurt Warner at QB, are on the road in a tough place to get a win, Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium. Here is our breakdown of both Conference Title Games, and our picks for who will be making the trip to Memphis and the Summer Bowl at Liberty Bowl Stadium in just 10 days.
Sunday, July 24 @ 2pm ET
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Tampa Bay -5
To be honest, we are still somewhat shocked that Philadelphia made it here without Warner, but kudos to them for the way they fought in the Federals game. Looking at this matchup the formula will have to be the same, protecting Gutierrez, using the run game and putting in a very strong defensive effort. Tampa Bay has a lot of options on offense, including one of the best pass-catching backs in the league in McGahee and a veteran wideout in Galloway who still has enough speed to beat teams deep.
When Philadelphia has the ball, expect Tampa Bay to try to pressure Gutierrez with blitzes and stunts, while using coverages that force the ball to the middle of the field. When Tampa Bay has the ball, Philadelphia will try to get pressure with just four players, allowing them to double receivers and prevent the deep ball.
OUR PICK: As much as the win last week was impressive for the Stars, we have to go with the favorite here. Tampa Bay 24-18.
Sunday, July 24 @ 6pm ET
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Pittsburgh -2
This one could be a very low scoring affair. We have two teams that just don’t crack on defense, although we also have two top 5 offenses on the field as well. One of these 4 squads is going to give, and the one that does could determine the game. If either team can establish the run to the point of drawing in the safeties, then the passing game will open up and it may only take one deep shot that connects to win this game. We think this one will stay a one score affair throughout, but will it be 17-14 or 31-35? That is the question.
OUR PICK: As much as we like the Maulers, and we do, Joe Flacco is having a legitimate moment this season, and we think that moment continues with the road upset of Pittsburgh and a trip to the Summer Bowl for the long-suffering Outlaw faithful. Texas 19-16.