Midseason and a lot to decipher. Also a lot to look forward to. We reach midseason with an unexpected unbeaten club (Arizona), some unexpected collapses (Chicago, Houston, New Jersey, New Orleans) and a few surprising strong starts across the league (Birmingham, Los Angeles). This is the ever-present change that we see each year in the USFL where the fortunes of any team can radically change with a few key moves, a new coaching strategy, or simply a new culture of accountability. Week 8 itself saw some intriguing results as two of the winless clubs (New Jersey and Memphis) managed to land their first victories of the year. We also saw a great clash in the Southwest as Texas took on Denver at Mile High. We wondered if Oakland had finally found their formula after they knocked off Portland, and we ponder just how far the Houston Gamblers will fall this year after a title run in 2010. All that, and all the midseason analysis is right here, right now.
MICHIGAN PANTHERS 25 ORLANDO RENEGADES 20
Not the marquee matchup of the week, to be sure, but this matchup of the ‘Gades and Panthers turned out to be one of the best games of the year because both teams were giving it everything they had. Michigan was hoping to add a 3rd win to their total and perhaps creep back into the playoff picture. Orlando was hoping to use this game as a springboard to the Division lead. So, what we got were two hungry teams, both motivated to win, and a game that was entertaining throughout.
Early on it looked like Michigan certainly had the upper hand, but far too often they were forced to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns and that allowed Orlando to hang close enough to be a threat throughout. It began with a quick first drive, enhanced by Michigan coming out using a no-huddle strategy. The goal was to hit Orlando hard and fast, and to get Brian Griese into a rhythm. His comeback from injury has been somewhat spotty, so Coach LeBeau wanted to give him full command and the ability to manipulate mismatches caused by the inability for Orlando to put in subs as Michigan went without a huddle.
The strategy paid off as Michigan marched down the field in only 8 plays, capping off their drive with a Griese to Joppru 13-yard TD strike. The strategy would pay off twice more in the quarter as Orlando, suffering from some offensive sputtering, could not gain a first down in the period, two straight 3-and-outs, while Michigan continued to use the no-huddle to add 6 more points on two consecutive field goal drives. It could have been more but WR Mario Manningham dropped a wide open touchdown on the third drive, crashing to the ground and rolling into a cameraman at the same time. He would leave the game with an injury caused on that play, and that would force Michigan to use different formations and largely abandon the no-huddle to allow their own substitutions.
Down 13-0 at home after one quarter, Orlando also changed gears, Shifting from first down play action to more run calls. The strategy worked, as Knowshon Moreno and Jacob Hester alternated inside runs to pretty good effect, giving Eli Manning short third downs to make. The shift led to Orlando’s first poins, a 27-yard kick to put them on the board. After a third Michigan field goal made it 16-3, Orlando would get their first TD of the day and pull right back within one score just as the first half wound down. The TD, an 11-yard scamper by Moreno, came at the end of a 13-play drive that started at the Orlando 4 after a botched kick return. Eli Manning completed 4 of 6 throws on the drive and they got an unexpected boost when a 3rd and 1 plunge play by Leon Johnson ended up going for 13 yards when the back bounced off the original tacklers.
Michigan continued to struggle to turn drives into touchdowns in the 3rd quarter, and again settled for a field goal. Their defense had played well all game, but with only a 19-10 lead, they could not rest. Unfortunately, on at least one play they did. A mental mistake left Orlando WR Justin McCaerins open behind the safeties and Eli did not miss on the throw. The scoring toss to McCaerins got Orlando back to within 2 points at 19-17 as the third quarter wound down.
The final period saw both defenses scrambling to keep the offenses contained. It worked for the first 12 minutes of the period, with both teams struggling to get past the 50. But, after a beautiful seam route broke Greg Olsen open in the middle of the field, Orlando broke through. Their drive bogged down thanks to a holding call, but still left them in field goal range for Bill Grammatica. The Orlando kicker gave the ‘Gades their first lead of the game with only 1:36 left to play. Orlando was up 20-19 and had to defend for the next 90 seconds to claim the win.
As it turns out, it was 90 seconds too many. Michigan took over on their 25 after the kickoff sailed out of the endzone. They then proceeded to dissect the Orlando zone defense, a zone the game announcers critiqued heavily as it clearly was allowing too many 8-10 yard completions and too many outside routes that allowed receivers to get out of bounds, preserving time. After spiking the ball on a first down inside the Orlando 20, and needing only a field goal to win, Michigan opted not to set up their kicker by plunging the ball towards his preferred hasmark. Instead they set up in a tight formation, faked the ball to Mike Hart, and Griese found Laverneus Coles on a fade route to the endzone. The fake worked as the safeties crashed the line, leaving Coles in single coverage, perfect for the fade route to succeed. Coles brought down the ball, and with 9 seconds left, the Orlando crowd groaned in frustration as Michigan went up 25-20. The Panthers went for 2 to make it a 7-point lead, but failed, giving us the final score of 25-20.
For the Panthers, the gritty comeback win means that they move to 3-5 and are still viable as a potential Wild Card. There is little chance that they can catch the 6-1 Maulers, but with Wild Card clubs often sitting at 9-7 or 8-8, the Panthers at least have hope. Better yet, the game showed that Brian Griese is regaining some of his form and his swagger from the 2009 season.
For Orlando, dropping to 4-4 is not a disaster, particularly not in the Southeastern Division where 4 of the 5 clubs are all clustered right around the .500 mark, but it certainly complicates their push to a leadership position.
OAKLAND 24 PORTLAND 20
The Invaders even their record at 4-4 despite a run game that got nowhere against Portland (38 total yards). Credit the defense, which not only held the Stag offense in check but also produced the game-winning points. Down 20-17 in the 4th, Oakland got a pick six from linebacker Mike Maslowski to secure the win. Maz snuck in front of a ball aimed for Stag TE Vicante Shiancoe and got a caravan of blockers for a 50-yard pick that crushed the Stags’ hopes for a home win.
CHARLOTTE 27 NEW JERSEY 30
The Generals’ offense came alive against a pretty good Monarch D as New Jersey notched their first win of the year. Two TDs from Maurice Jones-Drew led the way for a 30-point New Jersey output. The defense also came up big, picking off Jake Delhomme 3 times to hold Charlotte in check. The final pick, made by Nate Clements, was the clincher as it ended a last ditch Charlotte drive in the waning seconds of the game.
BOSTON 16 PHILADELPHIA 20
Jake Locker finally had a game without throwing a pick, but it was still not enough as Philadelphia edged the Cannons at home. Not the best game for Kurt Warner as he was sacked 6 times, including 3 from Boston DE Jason Babin, but the Stars got enough out of their offense to hold off the Cannons late. With Stevie Johnson sidelined, Reche Caldwell had another big day, catching 7 balls for 124 yards and a score.
PITTSBURGH 10 LOS ANGELES 9
This one was all about defense as neither team was able to show much on offense. LA was held to only 196 total yards, including only 24 total yards on the ground. Pittsburgh fared better, with 101 rushing yards between Brown and Watson, but could not get the ball in the endzone for most of the day. The game’s lone TD, a Kenny Watson run, was enough however, as LA could only muster 3 field goals.
HOUSTON 19 CHICAGO 24
Chicago nabs their 3rd win of the season as they seem to have turned things around, but Houston, ooh boy, that makes 6 losses in a row for the league champion. Matt Hasselbeck was actually pulled from the game late in favor of Tim Rattay, a humiliating development for the 2010 OPOTY. Chicago hung on despite losing Brady Quinn in the third quarter. Mike Kafka came in and threw a key TD to Donald Driver to secure Chicago’s 3rd win in a row.
NASHVILLE 17 BALTIMORE 27
This battle of 5-2 clubs goes to the homestanding Baltimore Blitz as they get two 2nd half TD tosses from Big Ben to Tory Holt to take the W. Add in 111 yards from Ron Dayne and a defense that held Jay Cutler to only 170 yards passing and the Blitz get their 6th victory in 8 games. Holt would finish with 3 scores on the day and led all receivers with 93 yards.
MEMPHIS 20 ST. LOUIS 10
The Showboats show some spine and snag their first win in 8 tries, knocking off a sloppy St. Louis squad that could not get out of their own way. Cadillac Williams lifted the Showboats on his back, rushing for 151 yards as St. Louis could not find a formula to slow him down. New arrivals Antonio Smith and Kendrick Clancy made great first impressions for the Showboats, each recording a sack of Josh Freeman.
NEW ORLEANS 16 OHIO 17
The Breakers played hard for Coach Lathon and almost pulled off the road win, but fall by 1 point to become the league’s only 0-8 club. New Orleans had a 16-10 lead with 5 minutes left, but could not stop the Glory on a final drive that finished with a Zach Miller TD catch to take the win. The Breakers outgained the Glory 300-143, but simply could not hold the lead in the end.
JACKSONVILLE 24 BIRMINGHAM 31
A good one between two athletic QBs as rookie Cam Newton edged 2nd year QB Tim Tebow to help Birmingham to a 5-3 record at the halfway point. Newton threw for 276 yards and 2 scores, while Tebow thew for 275 but also threw 3 picks. The play of the game however came with Newton’s legs. With the game tied at 24 with 2:10 left to play, Newton scrambled, straight-armed a safety and dashed 58 yards for the game winner, a stunning play that had all of Birmingham on their feet. Terrell Owens also had a strong game, with 135 receiving yards and 2 scores as he and Newton are quickly becoming one of the best QB-WR combos in the league.
TEXAS 17 DENVER 26
The SW Division clash at Invesco Field goes to the road team and backup QB Dan LeFevour. The Gold QB went 16 of 24 for 236 yards, connecting for 3 TDs with TE Daniel Graham (2) and WR Peerless Price (1). Texas had a shot, but Joe Flacco suffered a concussion in the 3rd and backup Sage Rosenfels just could not rally the Outlaws, despite 128 yards from WR Marques Colston against the Gold defense.
WASHINGTON 13 ARIZONA 17
Another huge game featuring a SW Division club as the unbeaten Wranglers use a stifling defense and home field advantage to knock off the 6-1 Federals. David Garrard suffered 3 sacks and was knocked out of the game, forcing Joe Webb into action late. The Arizona D forced 3 turnovers, including 2 picks of Webb, to secure the win despite their offense struggling to gain 238 yards on the day. Arizona now sits a perfect 8-0 at the midway point.
LAS VEGAS 7 SEATTLE 24
Everyone wondered what the Las Vegas offense would do without Marshawn Lynch, and the answer is not much. The Thunder got only 74 total yards out of their run game as Seattle limited Cedric Benson to 50 yards on 19 carries (2.6 YPC). Meanwhile, the combo of Betts and Best combined for 172 yards rushing as the Dragons ground out a win and evened their record at 4-4 at midseason.
TAMPA BAY 37 ATLANTA 20
The Bandits snap their 3-game losing streak and reach midseason with a share of first place. They did it by forcing 3 Kyle Orton picks and by handing the ball to Willis McGahee. Atlanta’s D seemed unable to tackle the Bandit back, who rushed for 182 yards and 2 scores on the day. Tampa would also get a pick-6 from Antrel Rolle as Kyle Orton forced the ball in desperation in the 4th.
Arizona a Surprise 8-0
Without a doubt the biggest story of the USFL season’s first half, the Arizona Wranglers, sitting at 8-0, are the surprise team of the season. After improving a 1-15 club in 2008 to 5-9, then 7-9, there was hope in Phoenix that the Wranglers were headed in the right direction with Coach Jim Tomsula, but no one saw a start like this on the horizon for the Wranglers. Arizona has run roughshod through the league, surviving their biggest test last week when the 6-1 Washington Federals came to town. The Wranglers won that game, as they have won all their games, with a balanced offense and a shut down defense.
The Wranglers seem to give up yardage (14th in the league) but not points (3rd in points allowed), and they have an offense that is 11th in both the run and the pass, a sign of their balance, but 4th in scoring. That combination has worked well for the club as they have already won more games this season than in any year since 2006. Coach Tomsula is up for Coach of the Year, and LaDainian Tomlinson is back in a form we have not seen from him in several season (NFL and USFL). They have a tough test the next two weeks, with games at Texas and then their first showdown with the Denver Gold, but this team has already proven the doubters wrong. They will be a force to be reckoned with down the home stretch as well.
Houston’s Collapse a Mystery
If Arizona’s year is one of surprising success, the Houston Gamblers’ season, hot off their 4th USFL title, has been a mysterious collapse into despair. The Gamblers started the year strong, with a Summer Bowl rematch win over Philadelphia in the season opener and an easy victory over New Jersey in Week 2. But after that it all went downhill. Blown out 30-14 by their in-state rivals, Houston then went on to lose 5 more games to create their current 6-game skid. In that span, they have scored only 20 points or more once 9a 24-21 loss at Denver), and were shut out by Washington in a game few could believe.
But, what is the problem for the Gamblers? Well, there appear to be many. They currently rank 23rd in the league against the pass, in part because their usual combination of pressure and shallow zones is being exploited by quick release passing schemes. On offense, they have picked up yardage, averaging 338 yards per game, certainly respectable, but that has only generated 17.6 points per game, and that includes the 2 wins before the skid started. QB Matt Hasselbeck has regressed after an excellent 2010, throwing 11 picks to only 9 TDs this season and is being sacked more often as well. Shaun Alexander’s numbers are solid, but he is getting bottled up in the redzone, with Houston struggling to find paydirt.
It is a surprising turn of events for a club that many thought could make a run at a repeat. That goal seems well out of reach at this point, as even finishing at .500 would be a major accomplishment for this Houston squad. With Texas, Denver, and especially Arizona having outstanding seasons, any chance Houston has to improve this year may be limited to trying not to finish in 4th place, a devastating drop from the lofty heights they accomplished in 2010.
Cam Newton Revives the Stallions
To say that the gamble the Stallions took on Auburn QB Cam Newton has paid off is to underplay what we have seen this year. The 1-year starter at Auburn impressed everyone with a magical run to a national title for the Tigers, but there were still a lot of doubters as to how his game would translate to the pro ranks. Well, I think it is safe to say that Newton has adapted just fine.
After 8 weeks, Cam Newton has a 2:1 TD:INT ratio (14-7), has thrown for over 1,800 yards, and has also proven dangerous as a rusher, with 105 yards so far this season, including a spellbinding 58-yard TD run just this week. He has helped to lift Birmingham out of the basement of the Southern Division for the first time in years, and has Birmingham poised to make a playoff push at 5-3, tied with Nashville for the division lead. When we compare his ROTY worthy numbers against the other two highly rated rookie starters (Jake Locker in Boston and Andy Dalton in Pittsburgh), there is no contest. Dalton is spending the season on the sideline as Cody Pickett puts up strong numbers and Locker is struggling to throw the ball to the guys wearing Cannon gear instead of the opposition’s. Well on his way to Rookie of the Year honors, Newton is looking like a gem in the Class of 2011.
New Orleans in Chaos
With victories by New Jersey and Memphis this weekend, New Orleans, sitting at 0-8, now enters the second half of the season as the only winless club. Having already fired not only their head coach of 11 years, but also both coordinators, there is an air of desperation and a sense of chaos in the Crescent City. Coach Lamar Lathon moved from a positional job as LB Coach to the big chair, and promoted two other positional coaches to help him. The franchise is looking at a permanent hire sometime in August, but before that they just want to get a W or two on the board. Having already lost to perennial basement dwellers Birmingham and St. Louis, the Breakers may have one of their best shots this season as they head to Memphis to take on the 1-7 Showboats in Week 9. It is the first of 3 straight games against teams with 1 win to their names, as they follow that game up with a home game against 1-7 New Jersey, and then a rematch with the Showboats in the Super Dome. If they cannot come away with 1-2 wins in this sequence, we very well could be looking at a winless 0-16 club. Not something we see very often, and certainly not what Breaker ownership expected when they traded for Drew Brees to be their QB.
Pennsylvania is Football Central
While most of the country is looking at Arizona’s surprise success, the state of Pennsylvania is trying to lock down two divisions and the crown as the center of the football world. The Philadelphia Stars and Pittsburgh Maulers, the Keystone State’s two USFL franchises, have a combined record of 13-3 after 8 weeks, and they both lead their respective divisions. The Maulers enjoy a 3-game lead over 2nd place Ohio, while Philly is battling both Washington and Baltimore in a top heavy Northeast Division.
Sadly the two Pennsylvania powerhouses are not scheduled to meet this year, at least not in the regular season, but there is nothing that would be more welcomed from Reading to Erie than for Summer Bowl 2011 to be an all Penn matchup of Maulers and Stars. Sure, the game is going to be played in Memphis’s Liberty Bowl, but they had better plan on bringing in major supplies of Yuengling and scrapple sandwiches if these two teams find their way to the title game.
Rookies Coming on Strong
We already spoke of the stellar freshman year Cam Newton is having in the USFL, and while he seems the lock-down favorite for Rookie of the Year, he is by no means alone as a first season standout. Several other rookies are proving their worth and contributing to their teams right out of the gate.
Wideout Denarius Moore has helped to keep Nashville atop the Southern Division, especially after Robert Meachem went down to injury. The rookie receiver out of Rocky Top has surpassed 500 yards in his first 8 games and has added 4 TDs, all the while on pace for nearly 90 receptions as a rookie. Trailing Moore but not by much is Birmingham’s Jerrel Jernigan, who has gathered in 32 receptions for 429 yards and 2 TDs for the Stallions. Third among rookie wideouts, Austin Pettis in Chicago is doing quite well, 4th on the team with 22 receptions for 225 yards and a score.
In Atlanta, the surprising effectiveness of halfback Anthony Allen, a T-Draft signee out of Georgia Tech has forced Coach Ramsey to split carries with Darren McFadden, something no one saw coming this year. McFadden’s 483 yards still leads the team, but Allen is right there with 363 as well.
Tight End has been a strong position in the 2011 class, with both Birmingham’s Julius Thomas and Portland’s Jordan Cameron getting off to good starts. Thomas has 21 catches, 4 for scores as part of the new Birmingham offense, while Cameron has 31 receptions, 294 yards and 3 scores for the Stags. Both have been huge in the red zone and will likely continue to see red zone targets in the season’s second half.
On defense there have been any number of rookies making huge contributions. In St. Louis they are loving the production they are getting from LB Aldon Smith, who is on pace for 104 tackles and also has a pick and 2 sacks. Texas LB Jonathan Mouton has also been impressive, with 34 tackles 2 picks and a sack to his name. Jacksonville’s K. J. Wright trails just a little with 22 tackles, a pick, and a sack after 8 games.
On the D-line the breakout player from this year’s draft has been David Bowens in Jacksonville, with 6 sacks leading all Bulls defenders. Nashville has been very impressed with rookie DE Mario Addison’s 4 sacks in limited action. In New Orleans, Cameron Jordan has 4 sacks and 21 tackles, while St. Louis’s Adrian Clayborn has 4 sacks and 11 tackles so far. Baltimore’s Robert Quinn (3 sacks) and Memphis’s Sam Acho (2 sacks) are also getting significant snaps.
A lot was expected of DB Patrick Peterson, and so far he is living up to the hype with 36 tackles and a pick for the Breakers. Ohio’s Chimdi Chekwa has not snagged his first pick yet, but already has 43 tackles in significant action. Safety Shiloh Keo has been solid for the Stallions, with 2 picks and 21 tackles so far this season.
Midseason Award Favorites
While it is always a bit unfair to judge players on only half a season, it is also rare that award winners come out of nowhere in the second half of the season. So, here we are, 8 games in, and ready to declare a short list of contenders for each of the major awards this year.
MVP
Usually a QB award, that looks like a 2-man race at this point, with Joe Flacco and Kurt Warner looking very promising as potential MVP’s. The 2010 OPOTY barely lost out to Matt Hasselbeck for MVP last year, and this year Kurt Warner is again in the mix. The newcomer is Joe Flacco, who is just having a dream season in San Antonio. Flacco is on pace for 32 TD passes, which would blow away his prior best season (16) and Texas is benefitting.
OPOTY
If not a QB, which we don’t see happening in back to back years, then this one could well go to one of three outstanding veterans. You have Ron Dayne and LaDainian Tomlinson, both in the Top 5 among rushers and both sustaining their offenses as the centerpiece of the attacks in Baltimore and Arizona. But let’s not forget about Joey Galloway in Tampa Bay. Many viewed his departure from Ohio as a swan song, well, if that is the case, he is singing an aria, on pace for over 120 receptions and 1,500 yards, he is looking every bit like the best receiver in the league.
DPOTY
It would not be a Defensive Player of the League vote without Calais Campbell. Once again the big man in Orlando is racking up sacks like they are prize tickets at a Chuck E. Cheese. If, by some fluke, he tails off later in the year, something we don’t see happening, the next best candidate could be Washington LB Antonio Pierce. Pierce in on pace for about 125 tackles, and also has 3 sacks, and 4 forced fumbles to his name this season. Finally, if we look to the secondary you have to mention Troy Polamalu and the impact he has had in Arizona.
ROTY
Any conversation of Rookie of the Year begins, and appears to end, with Cam Newton. The Auburn product has breathed new life into the Stallions and is light years ahead of the other rookie QBs taken this year. The only real competition is coming from Moore, the Nashville wideout, and we just don’t see how a WR will outdo a QB in votes come July.
COTY
Our choice for Coach of the Year has to be Jim Tomsula. The slow gradual improvement of the Wranglers year to year has kicked into a gear no one expected. We don’t expect the Wranglers to finish the year 16-0, but if they hold on to win the division, that would be an amazing year all by itself. We think Tomsula is the clear favorite. The closest challengers are likely Bart Andrus in Ohio, Gregg Williams with the Express, and Birmingham’s Mike Shanahan.
Voters Ask New Orleans to Retain Teal Combo
The votes are in and the winner is Breaker Blue and Deep Ocean. Fans in the Breakers’ “Show Your Colors” contest voted for 6 weeks and while the vote was close between retaining the current “double teal” look of the Breakers or returning to the club’s original “double blue” look, but in the end, the look that the club has been wearing since 1994 won out over the earlier look.
With nearly 50,000 votes in the books, the double teal look won by a margin of only 2,500 votes, meaning that the 2012 look for the Breakers, one of four teams getting a new design from Adidas next year, will retain the current color scheme. But, for those who voted to return to the original bright blue, navy and gray look, they will have their day as well, since all 12 of the original 1983 USFL clubs will wear retro uniforms whenever they face fellow founding clubs during the 2012 season.
While we don’t know the schedule for next year yet, we know for certain that this means at least 4 matchups for the Breakers where they will wear their original Boston/New Orleans uniforms, twice against Birmingham and twice against Nashville (the original LA Express in 1983). So, for fans of the double blue, there will be plenty of chances to see that color scheme on the Breakers, and for fans of the double teal, the future is yours as New Orleans will release their new look within the next few weeks.
Charlotte gets a huge hit to the offense as veteran HB Fred Jackson will be placed on IR after suffering two broken bones in his right foot. The injury could be career impactful depending on how it heals, but at least for this year Charlotte is going to have to rely on untested rookie Taiwan Jones unless they make a deal before the trade deadline. Jackson, who was on pace for 1,200 yards this year will now need to wear a soft boot for several weeks and surgery is not out of the question.
Houston has more of a short-term concern, as we discovered midweek that the pulling of Matt Hasselbeck from Houston’s latest loss was not purely performance based. It turns out that Hasselbeck as complaining of chest pain, and post-game, the team physicians confirmed that the issue was in his ribs. He will need at least a week out of the lineup, possibly longer, to recover and return to action.
Memphis also lost a valued weapon with Lee Evans expected to miss as much as a month of action after suffering a hairline fracture in his right forearm. It is not a clean break, but contact with the arm could be very detrimental to its healing, so Evans will be sidelined at least through Week 11 and possibly longer.
Washington could be without starter David Garrard at least another week as his rib injury is not where doctors hoped it would be this week. He is listed as “Out” for this week, but we are not sure how close to returning he may be. In Chicago, TE Anthony Fasano is out at least this week and possibly longer due to a nerve issue in his back.
Among those listed as “Doubtful” or “Questionable” this week we find Houston LB James Farrior (neck), Chicago DT Kris Jenkins (arm), Mauler FB Patrick DeMarco (hand), Denver QB Matt Leinart (arm), Las Vegas LB A. J. Hawk (concussion), Washington HB Deuce McCallister (abdomen), Michigan WR Mario Manningham (shoulder) and Arizona HB Stevan Ridley (arm).
Expected back in action this week we have Seattle DT Brandon Noble, Arizona FS Nate Allen, LA cornerback Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, Arizona LB Karlos Dansby, Charlotte WR Derrick Mason, Tampa DE Jason Pierre-Paul, Philly WR Stevie Johnson, and Portland CB Marquand Manuel.
It would not be a Week 8 report without handing out midseason grades. And while we recognize that all teams have earned an “I” for incomplete after 8 games, we want to at least let folks know where they stand and what they need to do to bring their final grade to the best it can be. So, without further ado, here is our team-by-team, division-by-division review of 2011 and where we think it will end.
Philadelphia, Washington and Baltimore are all currently locked up at 6-2, while Boston and New Jersey are pretty much out of any playoff contention at 1-7 each. There are arguments for all three of the 6-2 clubs to make a push to capture the division title. Our prediction is that Philadelphia will hold off the other two and will capture both the division and the #1 seed in the East, however, we also expect all three clubs to finish with 10+ wins and to qualify for the postseason.
Philadelphia Stars
Midseason Grade: A – The Stars struggled at the start, dropping their opener to Houston and then Week 2 to Washington, but since then they have been one of the best teams in football, winning 6 straight and dominating in most games, including a whopping 52-10 crushing of the Southern leader, Nashville. A lot is going right for this club, and they are focused on getting one step further than in 2010, which means a league title or bust.
Break Out Star of 2011: WR Reche Caldwell. We don’t know what has clicked between Caldwell and Kurt Warner but the 10-year vet is having a breakout year as a deep ball receiver with over 700 yards already. If he can get more endzone shots, he could easily be an OPOTY candidate.
Area of Concern: While the run defense has been stellar (#1 in the league at only 58.8 YPG) the pass defense has given up some big plays. With both Washington and Baltimore coming up the next two weeks, they are going to want to lock down the big plays and force both clubs to drive slowly down the field.
What We Expect: We see Philly on a mission this year. They believed they were better than Houston and they still believe in themselves. This is a club that wants that 4th title and has the talent on both sides of the ball to get it. We see them as the odds on favorite to win the division and very possibly the #1 seed in the East.
Washington Federals
Midseason Grade: A – Just as with Philadelphia, the Federals have come out looking like a serious Summer Bowl contender. Their two losses have come against other division leaders, Tampa Bay and Arizona, and they were right in those two games. They face Philly in Week 9, and that game could determine the tie breaker that will decide the division.
Break Out Star of 2011: CB Brandon Flowers. In his 4 prior seasons he has a total of 4 picks, a number he has already met this season. He is playing lights out after being upgraded to the #1 corner and could soon be assigned to defend the top receiver of opposing offenses instead of being assigned a side of the field.
Area of Concern: David Garrard could be out at least 2 weeks with rib issues, 2 weeks that could be the difference between winning the division and getting a Wild Card. With Philly up this week, backup Joe Webb had better shine or the Feds could already be in trouble in their hunt for the NE Division.
What We Expect: We think the Feds could make a deep playoff run, but if they are a Wild Card team that means road games and that is never easy. We see them as perhaps the top Wild Card club, but is that enough for their goal of reaching the Summer Bowl?
Baltimore Blitz
Midseason Grade: A – We cannot give the other NE contenders an A and not do so for this Baltimore squad. They lost back to back games against Birmingham and Philly, but by a combined 4 points. They have since dominated the opposition, but their toughest stretch of games is still to come with 2 games against Washington and a rematch with Philly still on the slate.
Break Out Star of 2011: Rookie Robert Quinn is tied with Jason Taylor and Jeff Zgonina with 3 sacks, but the rookie is showing better grasp of his role each week and could surpass both veterans by season’s end.
Area of Concern: Both offense and defense are looking very solid indeed, but Big Ben is still getting hit too often. If the Blitz lose him to injury due to shoddy blocking, that could put an end to their divisional aspirations very quickly.
What We Expect: The Blitz are right there with Washington and Philadelphia, and yet, there are nagging doubts about this team. They have won 5 in a row after a 1-point loss to Philadelphia, so perhaps we are just not yet ready to see how close they are to their division rivals. Week 10 at Philly should show us more.
Boston Cannons
Midseason Grade: D – We get it, a rookie QB means time is needed, but you would hope that the rest of the team would rally to support the rookie and make the game as slow as possible for them. We have not seen that in Boston, where neither the defense nor the run game has been strong enough to help Boston win games while Jake Locker gets up to speed.
Break Out Star of 2011: Everyone in Boston was hoping this would be Jake Locker, but the rookie has struggled. The best “newish” face may be that of slot receiver Percy Harvin, who is getting more looks in the short range passing game and is averaging a very solid 10.3 yards per catch despite Locker’s troubles.
Area of Concern: It is all about the development of Locker. Three TDs and 9 picks in his first 6 games is very concerning, so what Boston wants to see is growth and that the game is slowing down for their rookie as the season progresses. They don’t expect a lot of W’s on the board, but when you look at what Cam Newton is doing in Birmingham, patience for Locker’s development is not going to be too abundant.
What We Expect: This is a rebuilding year, no doubt, but the Cannons need to see more from Locker or they risk ostracizing their veterans, particularly Chad Johnson, who is not going to suffer too many seasons of sub-par QB play before he seeks greener pastures.
New Jersey Generals
Midseason Grade: F – This was a team that many expected to be at or near the top of the division. What we got instead is chaos. Sam Bradford is getting hit a lot, the run game is nowhere to be found, and the defense is giving up big plays on a regular basis. They got their first win this week, but we don’t see many more on the horizon.
Break Out Star of 2011: Cornerback Nate Clements is one of only a few players on the Generals who is getting any positive press. He is outplaying Devin McCourty and getting more shadow assignments to top receivers. Not afraid to tackle backs, he is also playing a bigger role than expected in run defense.
Area of Concern: Pretty much everything. Sam Bradford is not getting enough protection, and that is forcing him to make decisions on the run, which is not his strong suit. The line is also struggling to make holes for MJD, who is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry largely because he is getting hit early and often.
What We Expect: This was supposed to be a breakthrough season for the Generals, but that seems to have been very premature. This club has some talented players but they need to improve at several positions, so their goal for the year needs to be one of development and survival.
We knew this would be a tight division, but right now we have 4 of 5 teams all within 1 game of the lead (or of 4th place, depending how you look at it. With Tampa Bay at 5-3 and Atlanta, Charlotte, and Orlando all sitting at 4-4, there is a lot of room for this division to shift and change shape over the second half. Honestly, we think Orlando may be the best of the group, but can they be consistent enough to pull ahead? This could be a division that 9-7 wins, or maybe 10-6 at best, as we see them continuing to beat each other unless one team can simply put the pieces together and start dominating the others, which feels unlikely at this point.
Tampa Bay Bandits
Midseason Grade: B+ - While not the most statistically dominant team in the division, what we see from the Bandits is a fire we have not seen in a while. The arrival of Joey Galloway has been huge (see below) and the offense is looking scary again. What Tampa needs, however, is for the defense to start making as many big plays as the offense does.
Break Out Star of 2011: He is not break out for the league, but what Joey Galloway has allowed the Bandits to do has been a revelation. Not since Randy Moss left has Tampa Bay had a true deep threat, and a receiver with great routes as well. Galloway is opening up the offense for Daunte Culpepper and forcing teams to keep safeties back, which is making Willis McGahee much more dangerous.
Area of Concern: The Bandits’ defense is mediocre at best. They don’t get enough pass rush and struggle against the league’s better runners. That is a bad combination for a team trying to win a division, no matter what their offense can achieve.
What We Expect: The Bandits will not pull away from the pack in the South, but we do think they might have the right formula to hold on to the division, especially if their big name offensive weapons can stay healthy.
Atlanta Fire
Midseason Grade: B – A solid B for the Fire. As expected their defense is holding the team together. We like the new HB duo of McFadden and Allen, but there are concerns that Kyle Orton has not been able to replicate his strong 2010 season. If he can get into form, Atlanta has a real shot to repeat as division champs.
Break Out Star of 2011: Rookie HB Anthony Allen has been all Atlanta could ask for and more. He is garnering more and more carries each week and is allowing Darren McFadden to take a breather without killing drives. The 1-2 punch is working well for Atlanta’s offense.
Area of Concern: Last year Kyle Orton had a career season. The hope was that he was ascending as a player, but this year he has dropped back to earth. His completion rate, yards per completion, and TD:INT ratio have all taken a dive. Add to that a big drop in production from Josh Reed and last season is beginning to look like an aberration, not a trend.
What We Expect: Atlanta’s defense remains solid, their offense has potential, but that potential has to change to results. If not, this is a team that could go from 1st to 5th in the division in the span of one year. They need to win the close games, something that has eluded them this year.
Charlotte Monarchs
Midseason Grade: B – We are also giving a B to the Monarchs. They have had some very impressive games, particularly their wins over Oakland, and Tampa Bay, but then they go out and lose to the 0-7 Generals last week. Consistency is a huge issue, and Jake Delhomme is not providing the steady leadership that Charlotte was hoping for. Not yet at least.
Break Out Star of 2011: Second year LB Rolando McClain is showing no signs of a sophomore slump. He leads the club with 66 tackles, on pace for over 120 this year. He has also been able to cause big turnovers, 2 picks and 2 forced fumbles, all of which help Charlotte play on short fields and get easy points.
Area of Concern: It has to be Jake Delhomme. Delhomme was brought in to replace Chris Weinke, but his game is looking far too much like the former QB’s for comfort in Charlotte. A 7:13 ratio of TDs to Interceptions is not what you expect from a veteran like Delhomme, but it is what Charlotte has gotten so far.
What We Expect: The defense will carry Charlotte as far as they can, but in the end, they need Jake Delhomme to turn things around. He should be relying on Fred Jackson more than he does, and he should be spreading the ball around as well. If Charlotte can just get to about 20 PPG, they could win a lot of these closer matches.
Orlando Renegades
Midseason Grade: B- - We downgrade Orlando not because their record is worse than the other 4-4 clubs, but because we think they are more talented than the others and should have done more with their game to date. Back to back losses to Baltimore and Michigan, both at home, have put a real tarnish on what could and should be a 5 or 6 win club at this point.
Break Out Star of 2011: He is not a new player, but the version of Knowshon Moreno we are seeing this year is certainly new. He is finally trusting his instincts, making one cut and heading up field, and his career-best 4.1 YPC and 722 yards this year are evidence of a new back with newfound confidence in himself.
Area of Concern: Orlando is having no issues with pass rush, as expected, but they are giving up nearly 100 yards per game on the ground, which means that teams are not forced into long 3rd downs, where Calais Campbell can make them pay.
What We Expect: Orlando may be a mirage. That is what worries us. Of their 4 wins, three have come against some pretty bad teams (Memphis, New Orleans and Jacksonville). Can they hold their own against the better teams in the league? They will have to as they have the Blitz upcoming and then the Bandits and Monarchs twice each in the final half of the season.
Jacksonville Bulls
Midseason Grade: C- - The Bulls are a pretty good team for a 2-6 club, but that is just another way of saying that they are underperforming. They have had some close losses (1 point at Oakland, 6 points to Charlotte) but they have also been blown out by some of the better teams in the league. Their run game is a shambles, and Tim Tebow is hit or miss right now, and that is not enough to win consistently in this division.
Break Out Star of 2011: We are loving what David Bowens is bringing to the Bulls’ pass rush. The rookie has 6 sacks already and seems to be improving each week. While the injury to Mike Vrabel has shaken the Bulls D overall, Bowens is doing his part to make life tough for opposing QBs.
Area of Concern: The run game in Jacksonville is a shambles. More and more we are beginning to think that C. J. Spiller, for all his potential, is a bust. When LaBrandon Toefield went out with a season-ending injury in his first week as the starter it all fell back to Spiller, and we are just not seeing from him what you want from a lead back.
What We Expect: The Bulls just don’t have enough to compete in a very tough division. Tim Tebow is making too many mistakes, the run game is not helping, and the defense is without its leader in Vrabel. Expect a rough second half of the year if you are a Bulls fan.
We predicted a 2-club race this year in the South, but we thought it would be Nashville and New Orleans, not the Knights and the Birmingham Stallions. The Breakers are in a death spiral, Memphis has not seen the improvement they hoped for, but Birmingham has become a totally new team this year. A lot of that is Cam Newton, but others also deserve praise for their play. That said, this still feels like another Nashville division title to us.
Nashville Knights
Midseason Grade: A- -As much as we would like to give Nashville an A, when we look at their wins, we are not all that impressed. Of their 5 wins, only Birmingham has a winning record. And when Nashville faced Philadelphia and Baltimore, they were blown out by both. That tells us that they are taking advantage of a weak division rather than being a true juggernaut.
Break Out Star of 2011: Rookie wideout Denarius Moore is the hottest ticket in Nashville these days. He is getting open, making tough catches, and getting downfield in a way we rarely see from a Knight wideout. Could Nashville finally be ready to use speed instead of power as an offensive tool?
Area of Concern: As much as we love the Nashville defense’s aggressive nature, they are giving up too many big plays. Yes, they pressure the QB, and yes, they are solid against the run, but when the pass rush does not get home, offenses are finding guys open deep down field, and that is not something you want teams trying against you.
What We Expect: We still think Nashville is the class of the division. As exciting as Birmingham has been, we just trust Coach Johnson and the Knights to get the job done when crunch time comes.
Birmingham Stallions
Midseason Grade: A - The Stallions are this year’s Cinderella story. They are playing fast, playing loose, and playing with a lot of energy. They are not a perfect club, as is evident by their 23rd ranked scoring defense, but they are a lot of fun to watch and have already proven they can win a lot of games on sheer bravado.
Break Out Star of 2011: We have talked a lot about Cam Newton, so here we are going to highlight another new face in Birmingham, DB Antonio Cromartie. For all the excitement about the Stallion offense, we need to recognize that they also have the #2 rush defense in the league and believe it or not, Cromartie is a part of that. How? Well, when you have a shutdown corner on the outside, you can creep those safeties up and jump on the run game. That is a very valuable change to Birmingham’s defense.
Area of Concern: We love the 1-2 punch of Newton and Addai both running the ball, but how much risk do you want your QB to take running the ball? Newton is a big, strong, young QB, we get that, but all it takes is 1 bad cut, 1 big hit, and your new star is down for the count.
What We Expect: If the Stallions can keep the fire in their bellies, this club looks poised to make life very difficult for the Nashville Knights. They have some pretty easy games on the slate ahead (NJ, New Orleans, Memphis) so if they can win the games they will be favored to win, they could be right there at the end of the year.
Memphis Showboats
Midseason Grade: D – We did not expect Memphis to be a contender this year, so we cannot knock them for losing more than they have won, but they have been worse than expected, going 0-7 before finally notching a W this past weekend. They went all in on Ryan Mallett and now they don’t seem to have a plan B to turn to.
Break Out Star of 2011: CB Tebucky Jones has taken more chances this year, and while it does not always work out for him, when it does it produces big plays, picks, big returns, big hits. All of those help Memphis, but it is clearly not enough right now.
Area of Concern: The 28th scoring offense and the 27th passing attack are easy issues to spot with the Showboats. Ryan Mallett does not look ready for prime time, and Memphis does not have a plan B. So, they suffer through a rough year and hope Mallett learns from it and returns in 2012 a better prepared sophomore.
What We Expect: Memphis may well be in the battle for the #1 pick this year. It will be tough, since they have New Orleans playing as badly as they are in the division, but it seems that the Showboats will be lucky to avoid 13 or 14 losses this year.
New Orleans Breakers
Midseason Grade: F – What other grade could we give the 0-8 Breakers. This was a team that was supposed to challenge Nashville, with a newly signed MVP quarterback. So, what do we get, chaos and ineptitude. We now have a club with a raw and unprepared coaching staff, a QB who does not seem to fit the system, and not much else you can point to for the second half of the season. The only reason we see them getting wins at all is that they face Memphis twice in the next month.
Break Out Star of 2011: How do you have a breakout star with an 0-8 start? Rookie Patrick Peterson is playing well, but with so many issues on defense, it is hard to even spotlight his quality on a team that is just not playing well at all.
Area of Concern: The roster, the plan, the culture, you name it. It is all concern in New Orleans. We feel for Coach Lathon, who is taking this on with little hope of winning the permanent job for 2012. Anything he can do will just boost his resume for the next gig.
What We Expect: We think they will win a game. Maybe just one, but at least one. They have potential wins on the schedule, but only if they can get out of their own way and play complementary football instead of the mess we have seen so far.
The Maulers look like the class of the division as neither Chicago nor Michigan are what we expected and both Ohio and St. Louis look like 8-8 clubs hoping to catch a break. The Maulers have a shot at a #1 seed if they can continue to dominate the divisional games. Chicago has won 3 in a row after a horrid 0-5 start, so they may be a spoiler, as could Michigan if their recent wins over Ohio and Orlando are a sign that they have turned the corner. Can either catch the Maulers? Can Ohio or St. Louis put the pieces together to make a run? We are going to guess no and stick with Pittsburgh as the winner of this division, one which may only produce 1 playoff club.
Pittsburgh Maulers
Midseason Grade: A+ - The Maulers have shown us a lot in their 7-1 first half. They lost a shocker on opening day to Ohio, but have since then been playing some lights out, complementary football. Their defense is #1 in both scoring and yards allowed and they now have a Top 5 offense as well. That is one impressive combo.
Break Out Star of 2011: HB Ronnie Brown has been exactly what the Maulers hoped for when they signed the NFL cast off. He has been hungry, and running angry. His pairing with Kenny Watson is giving the Maulers the ability to pummel defenses into submission, and the threat of that duo has made life much easier for Cody Pickett, who can use play action to great effect against run-stuffing defenses.
Area of Concern: Not much is troubling Coach Rivera these days. Looking across the stat lines, it is hard to find a real concerning issue. If there is one thing we think Pittsburgh lacks, it is a true slot receiver to complement Vincent Jackson and Victor Cruz. But, with the Maulers using so many 2-TE formations, maybe that is OK.
What We Expect: We think the Maulers win this division by 2 or 3 games and spend the rest of the year trying to stay in range of Arizona for the possible #1 seed. Too bad they don’t face the Wranglers this season. That would be a heck of a game.
Ohio Glory
Midseason Grade: A- - We are awarding Ohio because they are clearly exceeding expectations. Even with Vince Young on the bench for most of the season’s first half, the Glory have emerged as a solid team. They need more explosiveness on offense (they average only 15.1 PPG) but the defense that Coach Andrus has put in place is living up to his hopes. Our only concern is that 3 of their 4 wins have come against sub-500 clubs. Can they beat any of the big boys to make a statement?
Break Out Star of 2011: Strong Safety Jermaine Phillips has been the biggest positive surprise for the Glory. Not only is he a solid tackler, but a bit of a ball hawk as well, with 4 picks to his name already this year. The defense needs more playmakers but in Phillips they have a good start.
Area of Concern: While the 2-headed run game of Kevin Smith and DeMarco Murray has decent totals the fact that they combine for a 3.4 YPC average means they are not getting the type of chunk plays they need to take the pressure off the Ohio QB. Will that change with Vince Young now starting? We shall see, but it seems to us that Ohio have not yet found their next Eddie George.
What We Expect: We think 8-8 is a good goal for this club. They still need to see what they will look like with Young at the helm, so it could be 9-7 or 7-9. We think there is a growing core of talent here, but more big game players are needed if Ohio is going to become a player again in the Central Division.
St Louis Skyhawks
Midseason Grade: B --We all liked the changes in St. Louis with Coach Arians, but we did not see them knocking off Chicago and Michigan to open the season. That was the high point so far, but since then reality has set in. They faced a gauntlet of Pittsburgh, Birmingham, Nashville and Arizona and lost all 4. It won’t get much easier in the 2nd half.
Break Out Star of 2011: He was coming on last year, but this season’s version of Jordy Nelson is by far the best we have seen in his career. He already has 4 TDs and has become the preferred deep threat for Josh Freeman. We want to see a higher catch-to-target ratio (19 of 45 right now), but if he keeps making big plays, St. Louis may not care.
Area of Concern: The problems for St. Louis continue to be on the defensive side, where they are in the bottom third of the league almost across the board. Not enough pressure up front, moments of confusion in the secondary, you name it, St. Louis is just not a coherent defensive squad yet.
What We Expect: The elation of their two opening wins has died down and we think fans now see that the Skyhawks will again be battling to not finish in the basement. A 3rd place finish would be a step up, as would a season with fewer than 10 losses.
Michigan Panthers
Midseason Grade: C- -Maybe we expected too much of Brian Griese coming off a lost year to injury, but what we have seen from the Michigan offense, as well as the whole team, has to have everyone in Detroit worried. The club is giving up nearly 300 yards per game, and Griese’s 2011 numbers are so far behind 2009 that it is hard to believe it is the same QB. Nine picks to only 7 TDs is not what anyone expected this year.
Break Out Star of 2011: Rookie D’Aundre Reed has had a good start to his career. He is tied with Tim Jameson as sack leaders, though a total of 3 in 8 games is not exactly a Rookie of the Year number. That said, his 21 tackles from the edge show that he has potential to be a 3-down player.
Area of Concern: As much as we want to dump on Brian Griese for his lackluster return to action, we need to acknowledge that the Panther’s are not helping him much with a solid run game. Michigan’s duo of Thomas Jones and Mike Hart are just not scaring anyone, and with only 87 yard per game on average, that makes sense.
What We Expect: Unless the Panthers can rekindle the 2009 offense, this could be a long year for folks in Detroit. They thought Griese’s return meant another division title, but it seems that this Panther squad is just not the same animal as the 2009 Panthers.
Chicago Machine
Midseason Grade: C – We love the 3-game win streak, especially a big win at Nashville, but that 5-game skid to start the season? What was that? Chicago lost all 5 games in the division as well, meaning that they are solidly screwed when it comes to tiebreakers even if they can stay hot in the second half. The team seems to have found its way, but is it too little, too late?
Break Out Star of 2011: As rough as the start of the season has been in Chicago, we can point to one player who seems to be raising his game, wideout Golden Tate. The 2nd year receiver has caught 43 of 62 targets, and is responsible for 4 touchdowns so far this season. He seems to be running crisper routes, and that is taking a lot of pressure off of Donald Driver.
Area of Concern: Chicago’s usually staunch defense was anything but during their 5-game skid. They still rank dead last in pass defense, and that is never a good thing in the pass happy USFL. Anthony Weaver is a one man show on the D-line, and that is not enough, and the secondary is still trying to find itself. They had better soon or Chicago could fade right out of any playoff chances.
What We Expect: Of all the first half underperformers, we think the Machine have the best shot to turn it around. They will need to get to at least 9, maybe 10 wins to qualify for the playoffs, and that is a lot to ask of a 3-5 club, but not so impossible that the Machine cannot focus on it as a target.
The most surprising division in football without a doubt. Not only do we have Arizona sitting at 8-0, but the defending league champion Houston Gamblers have lost 6 in a row and are looking like a complete disaster. Add to that very strong first halves by both Denver and Texas, and the emergence of Joe Flacco as a potentially elite QB in 2011 and you have a lot of excitement here. Do not be shocked to see this division produce both the #1 seed and the top 2 seeded Wild Card teams. This is a killer division this year.
Arizona Wranglers
Midseason Grade: A+ - No doubt about it, the Wranglers are the feel good story of 2011. They have spent so much time in the SW Division basement in recent years we are not sure they even remembered that there was a penthouse in the division. Now they sit at 8-0 and look every bit like a team of destiny.
Break Out Star of 2011: As much as we want to highlight the great years being had by players like LT, Larry Fitzgerald, or even David Carr, we have to recognize that DE Adam Carriker is exploding as a real threat from the edge. The former Cornhusker has 7 sacks and is beginning to draw double teams on nearly any passing down. That is a sign of respect he has never gotten before.
Area of Concern: Honestly, right now, injury feels like the only thing that will slow this team down. That is true of any team, but that does feel like the key, keep a healthy squad and keep winning.
What We Expect: With 2 big games coming up against Denver in the 2nd half, and another showdown with Texas as well, we don’t see Arizona going 16-0. Add in a huge game at Philadelphia, a possible Summer Bowl preview, and we think 14-2 is reasonable, and almost certainly good enough to win that #1 seed. Get ready for playoff football, Glendale!!
Denver Gold
Midseason Grade: A – We cannot penalize Denver just because of Arizona’s huge success. The Gold will still get 2 shots at Arizona, so maybe they prove to us that the Wranglers are a mirage. Even a split with Arizona would be strong for the Gold. They have looked very good all year, aside from a weird opening day shut out at home, and with 3 straight divisional games to end the season, they could be a club in control of their own destiny down the stretch.
Break Out Star of 2011: We know it has only been 6 quarters, but we love what we are seeing form backup QB Dan LeFevour. Four TDs, only 1 pick, and a QB Rating of 108.9. Having that kind of quality in the backup role is something few teams can boast. The hope for Denver is that his skills are not called upon, but how nice is it to know that you can put in a backup and still run the entire offense and get a W?
Area of Concern: As well as Denver has been playing, they are still hoping to get more out of the passing game. They will never be an explosive squad like Tampa Bay or Philadelphia, but they at least want to be in the top half of the league in passing just to make life easier for their run game.
What We Expect: We think Denver will challenge Arizona, and the two face off in Week 10 so we won’t have to wait long. If they win that game then the race is on for the division. If not, then they will have to keep it together to try to get the best Wild Card slot they can.
Texas Outlaws
Midseason Grade: A – Texas feels like a club that is due a year like this. They have been a solid team for a while, but always seem to shoot themselves in the foot. This year feels different. They are getting a great season out of Joe Flacco, taking pressure off of Duckett and the run game, and the defense is finally holding up their end of the deal. They need to improve against the run, but right now, sitting at 5-3, you have to be happy if you are an Outlaw fan.
Break Out Star of 2011: It has to be Flacco. From mid-range QB to possible MVP in one season. It is truly amazing to watch what he is doing with a pretty inexperienced receiving corps. And, to make it even better, he is getting a lot of guys involved. Yes, Marques Colston is the clear #1, but he is getting the ball to TE Chris Cooley, even FB Rick Razzano is getting several targets a game. That is a good sign for a team that needs to be diverse in its plans to be effective.
Area of Concern: With Top 10 squads in both offense and defense, there are not a lot of major concerns for Texas, but if there is one it is defensive pressure. The Outlaws have been using the blitz to try to support the pass rush, but ideally you want to see pressure from a front 3, maybe 4 so that you can have more defenders in coverage.
What We Expect: It is still hard to put Texas in the same range as Denver or Arizona, but they may well prove us wrong. Their recent loss in Denver perhaps is shading our view of them. The face Arizona next week. A win at home against the unbeaten Wranglers and we could just become believers.
Houston Gamblers
Midseason Grade: F – Look, there is no way to say it other than to say it. This may be the worst championship defense season we have ever seen. There were no major talent defections from the Outlaws, no obvious change of generation to explain how they could dump 6 games in a row. All we have is players not playing up to our expectations. All across the roster we are not seeing the effort, the drive, or the talent we expected.
Break Out Star of 2011: None of the players in Houston are clearly doing more than we expected, but at least a couple are playing well. Kavika Pittman continues to be a concern for OC’s across the league as his 9 sacks will testify, and CB Shaun Springs’s 4 picks are a sign that he still has a knack for the ball.
Area of Concern: Pick a card, any card. Offensive production is way down (17.6 PPG), the run game is averaging below 100 yards a game, the defense is among the league’s worst against the pass, something Houston always used to lock down. Just nothing is going well for them. And all this after a very exciting opening game win in Philadelphia. It is bizarre how quickly and how thoroughly they have fallen.
What We Expect: We honestly don’t know. Can they rally and maybe get hot and win a few games to save face? Maybe. Could they also finish the year in the SW Division basement? It sure seems that way. Just a weird year for a team we all thought had the talent to compete for a title again.
OK, Who picked LA to be atop the division at the halfway point? Really? No, you didn’t. No one did. But, that is where we stand, and with Marshawn Lynch likely out at least another month, the Express could try to wrap this up before the Thunder are back at full strength. And yet, sitting at 5-3, the Express are not at all out of the woods. Seattle and Oakland are only 1 game back and seem to be picking up steam. Portland is game behind there and we all thought they would be a contender, so maybe a run is within them. This, like the SE Division, could be a dogfight and we could see a 9-7 team win on tiebreakers.
Los Angeles Express
Midseason Grade: A- - The Express are certainly better off than we expected, with a nice 4-game winning streak helping them leap into 1st place in the Pacific, but they have not fully convinced us yet. They will finish the year with 4 straight divisional games (@ Seattle, Oakland, Portland, and @ Las Vegas). Expect that to be a gauntlet which will require 3 wins to lock up the division.
Break Out Star of 2011: Rookie Ronald Johnson out of USC has been a very pleasant surprise for the Express. He is not going to get targets away from Moss or Johnson, but he has been a good 3rd option, catching 18 balls for 203 yards and 2 scores so far this year.
Area of Concern: The run game is still a major issue for the Express. Ray Rice is just not producing the way they hoped when they traded for him, and the team as a whole is sitting at only 60 yards per game. That does not feel like championship caliber offense to us.
What We Expect: If Las Vegas were at full strength, we would certainly question LA’s chances to win the division, but with Lynch gone, there is a path to an Express title. It will require solid play from Mark Sanchez and continued defensive gems, but it is possible.
Las Vegas Thunder
Midseason Grade: B+ - Many saw Las Vegas as a clear favorite in the division, but now, without Lynch, that impression is likely to change. There will be a lot of pressure on the defense and on Jake Plummer to keep this club in range of LA and hope that Lynch can return for the final few weeks.
Break Out Star of 2011: WR Legedu Naanee was something of an afterthought signing by Las Vegas during the NFL-USFL window, but with both Marty Bookier and Willie Ponder sidelined by injury, Naanee has come on strong, and currently sits as the lead receiver with 25 catches and 303 yards.
Area of Concern: The Thunder simply cannot absorb more hits on offense. They are already down their top 2 receivers and their All-USFL running back. Any other injuries and this offense could be hobbled to the point of being unable to win even close defensive games.
What We Expect: We think the injury-riddled Thunder will lose a step and fall a bit behind some others in the division, but if Lynch can come back around week 13 or 14, they could make a late run for a playoff spot.
Seattle Dragons
Midseason Grade: B- -A record of 4-4 may not be impressing anyone, but we are seeing some signs that Seattle is putting the pieces together. Their run offense is improving, they still can get the ball deep to Boston, and the defense is #10 in scoring and #12 in yards, which is higher than most expected. Seattle is poised to possibly make a run if they can keep those three things improving.
Break Out Star of 2011: The loss of UCLA rookie LB Akeem Ayers was a blow, but it was also an opportunity and unheralded LB Carl Ihenacho is jumping at the chance to prove he has what it takes. Currently 6th on the team with 32 tackles, Ihenacho is proving to be an instinctive player who always seems to be around the ball. Watch out Ayers, you may have someone coming for your spot on the roster.
Area of Concern: Can we still be saying that Seattle needs a #2 receiver? Well, with Nate Burleson hurt that has certainly been the case. What we may actually mean is that they need a #3 option for Byron Leftwich. TE Jeramy Stevens is not the threat he once was, and neither Chris Chambers or Dwayne Jarrett has shown enough consistency in the absence of Burleson.
What We Expect: Seattle does expect Burleson back this week, and if he is 1005 that could help spark the aerial attack. If Seattle can be balanced on offense, they could take a step up the ladder and consider a playoff push down the stretch.
Oakland Invaders
Midseason Grade: B- - While the Invaders have won 3 of the last 4, we are still concerned that they are not showing us enough on offense to take them seriously. The D is solid, especially against the pass, but they have the 20th ranked pass attack even with Joey Harrington back, and their run game has been spotty all year. That has to worry fans of the club.
Break Out Star of 2011: DE Justin Smith has been quietly putting up solid numbers ever since he came over from Texas, but this year he is making a major push for 20 sacks on the year, and that would put him in a whole new category of respect.
Area of Concern: We already mentioned the offense, and we think we have to stay that broad. The whole offensive scheme is questionable. The Invaders are neither a smashmouth club nor a wide open air attack. What they may see as balance we see as mediocrity across the board. And it is rare that mediocre leads to big win totals.
What We Expect: The Invaders are sitting at .500 right now and we think that an 8-8 finish is just about what we would expect. Unless they can show us more on offense, we think 8-8 is a max, with the chance they finish below Portland in last by season’s end.
Portland Stags
Midseason Grade: C – Portland was a hot choice for a dark horse this year, but the improvement we expected to see in this club has just not materialized. They are currently in the lower half of the league in most stats, with the lone exception being their run defense. They made the swap from A. J. Feeley to Ryan Fitzpatrick, and we think it was the right call, but it feels very much like they have 2 fairly good options at QB, not one clear outstanding option.
Break Out Star of 2011: Rookie TE Jordan Cameron has been a nice addition to the club. He is surehanded and has shown some YAC capacity as well. With 3 touchdowns and 294 yards in his first 8 games, we expect more to come as he continues to grow into the pro game.
Area of Concern: The Stags are simply not producing enough pressure on opposing QBs. The DE combo of Elvis Dumervil and Antwan Odom have combined for 9 sacks, which sounds like a good number, but that means about ½ sack each every week, and that is not going to slow down most offenses.
What We Expect: Portland is not there yet. Can they compete for .500? Yes. For the playoffs? Probably not. Unless we are way off and they are about to turn on all the bells and whistles for both sides of the ball, this feels like another good, not great season for the Stags.
As we look ahead to the second half of the season and the playoff push, those divisional games are going to be of prime importance. On Friday we have one between two regional rivals who are both hoping to make a late run and possibly get their clubs into postseason position, Ohio, sitting at 4-4 will travel up to Detroit to take on the 3-5 Michigan Panthers on Friday Night Lights.
On Saturday, Pittsburgh, leaders in the Central, will be home to face the St. Louis Skyhawks, who, at 3-5, are still looking to have a break out year. Also on Saturday we will have a battle at the bottom of the standings as the 0-7 New Orleans Breakers visit 1-7 Memphis. Is this the game where Coach Lathon and his Breakers can earn their first win? We finish the day with a great matchup of contenders in the NE Division as Philadelphia, riding a 6-game winning streak, takes on the Washington Federals at RFK Stadium.
The divisional bouts continue on Sunday, when Arizona heads to San Antonio to take on the Texas Outlaws in a 4pm start. We also have some really interesting interconference games with Tampa Bay out at the other by to face Oakland and Las Vegas on the East Coast to face the Charlotte Monarchs. We end the week with the Portland Stags hoping to keep Houston’s stunning 6-game losing streak going, while the Gamblers hope this prime time game is the start of a rebound for them.
FRIDAY @ 8pm ET Ohio (4-4) @ Michigan (3-5) NBC
SATURDAY @ 12pm ET St. Louis (3-5) @ Pittsburgh (7-1) ABC
SATURDAY @ 12pm ET Birmingham (5-3) @ Atlanta (4-4) FOX
SATURDAY @ 12pm ET Orlando (4-4) @ Baltimore (6-2) FOX
SATURDAY @ 4pm ET Boston (1-7) @ Nashville (5-3) ABC
SATURDAY @ 4pm ET New Orleans (0-6) @ Memphis (1-7) FOX
SATURDAY @ 8pm ET Philadelphia (6-2) @ Washington (6-2) ESPN
SUNDAY @ 12pm ET Seattle (4-4) @ Jacksonville (2-6) ABC
SUNDAY @ 12pm ET Las Vegas (5-3) @ Charlotte (4-4) ABC
SUNDAY @ 12pm ET Denver (6-2) @ New Jersey (1-7) FOX
SUNDAY @ 4pm ET Arizona (8-0) @ Texas (5-3) ABC
SUNDAY @ 4pm ET Los Angeles (5-3) @ Chicago (3-5) FOX
SUNDAY @ 4pm ET Tampa Bay (5-3) @ Oakland (4-4) FOX
SUNDAY @ 8pm ET Portland (3-5) @ Houston (2-6) EFN