We’ve talked about the big stories of the USFL offseason, now it is time to make our picks, look at each team’s chances, and preview Week 1 of the 2011 USFL season. We will go team by team to discuss the biggest offseason move, the rookie with the biggest potential impact, and our assessment of where they stand this year and what we might expect from them. Before that we put together a 3-man panel of experts to answer some of the pressing questions of the year, and we wrap it all up with a look at the Week 1 slate of games. Let’s get to it.
TEN BIG QUESTIONS FOR 2011
Every season starts with a lot of unknowns. Which teams are rising and which are in decline? Who will break out this year? Which offseason moves will prove instrumental to change their team’s fortunes? Will any rookies become instant sensations? To answer these questions, we brought together three men who are well-known to USFL fans and who know the league as well as anyone. We put the 10 biggest questions of the offseason to each of them, and here is what they said we should expect in 2011. The Panel is:
Lee Corso: Former Head Coach of the Orlando Renegades, and one of the stars of USFL Today on ESPN for over 2 decades.
Bobby Hebert: Former MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, USFL Champion, and one of the greatest QBs in USFL history, now a member of the FOX USFL pregame studio team.
Lynn Swan: Former NFL Hall of Fame Wide Receiver and a broadcaster who has covered the USFL for ABC since its inception in 1983.
And the questions are:
Who Won the Manning-Brees Trade?
CORSO: It has to be New Orleans. Every season it seems we debate whether Eli Manning is an elite QB or not, but we don’t argue about Brees. We know what he can do and what kind of leader he is. That is an upgrade for the Breakers and a downgrade for Orlando, despite what the Renegades would say.
HEBERT: Honestly, it is a win for both QBs. It may not be for both teams, but for the players themselves, this is a good move. It allows Brees to get out of a situation where he just did not gel with the head coach, and for Eli, it gives him a chance to reinvent himself with a new fanbase and a new team.
SWANN: While I agree with my colleague Lee about Brees being the better quarterback, I am going to remind everyone that Dwayne Bowe was also part of the deal and I think he has a lot to offer Orlando, so for me the 2-for-1 deal helps Orlando more.
Which Free Agent Makes the Biggest Impact With Their New Team?
SWANN: It has to be Troy Polamalu. He is a difference maker. Arizona still has some holes on defense, but you watch what Troy does each week. He will impact games and that defense will cause issues for their opponents because he is on the field.
CORSO: I am going to say Jake Delhomme with the Monarchs. Charlotte already had some pretty good pieces in place. Chris Weinke was not getting the job done. Delhomme may not be an MVP candidate but he knows how to run an offense. Between him and the new receivers that Charlotte brought in, I see them as a potential darkhorse.
HEBERT: As much as I would love to go with the QB and agree with Lee on this one, I have to agree with Swanny. Troy Polamalu is such a disruptive force. He will be the difference for that Arizona D this year.
Which Team Had the Worst Offseason?
HEBERT: I have to go with the Philadelphia Stars. You lose playmakers on offense like Steve Smith, Dallas Clark, and Darren Sproles, but also defensive talent like Cromartie, Schulters and Ryan Nece. Those are hits that are going to impact that team. I like Stevie Johnson, but he is not going to be able to replace Steve Smith, and no one can really replace Sproles.
SWANN: I am going with Oakland, for one reason, Ricky Williams. The timing of Williams’s announcement, the lack of free agent options for the Invaders, and now they find their entire offense having to recalibrate because you just cannot plug in a rookie with a totally different running style like Ryan Williams and expect to get the same results. I see Oakland struggling to overcome Williams’s departure.
CORSO: I did not pick Troy Polamalu with Arizona as my biggest offseason win, but I am going to say that his departure from the Express is the biggest offseason loss. I just don’t see how LA can make up everything he gave to that defense, and unless they can redesign a defense around others on that team, they will struggle without Polamalu back there at safety.
Lots of New QB’s Under Center in 2011, Who Excels and Who Will Struggle?
CORSO: Excel seems pretty clear. I think New Orleans with Drew Brees will be a lot more dangerous. As for struggling, I am looking at Ohio and they are taking a real chance with Vince Young. I like the kid, he was outstanding at Texas, but we saw what his career was like in the NFL and I am not sure he suddenly gets it all right with a shaky Ohio squad this year.
HEBERT: I really like the situation that Ryan Fitzpatrick is in with the Stags. Yes, he has to battle with Feeley to win the job, but I think that he will win that battle and Portland is in a very good position to improve this year. As for struggling, I think Ryan Mallett, despite the talent around him in Memphis, has the biggest leap to make to be a successful USFL quarterback, and I just think this year could be tough for him.
SWANN: I know everyone is in love with Cam Newton, but he goes from a very talented Auburn team to a 2-win Birmingham squad as a rookie QB with really only 1 full year of top level college ball behind him. That is a very steep learning curve. As for the best situation, I really like where Jake Delhomme finds himself with Charlotte. There is a lot of upside to his move from Memphis to the Monarchs.
Which Rookie or Rookies Will Shine in Their First Year?
SWANN: I really like what I am seeing from Patrick Peterson in that New Orleans defense. He has great skills and can really fly around the field. I think he moves quickly to the #1 CB slot and he makes a real impact on a pretty good team.
HEBERT: I am looking at the three rookie QB’s likely to start by season’s end and the one in the best situation is clearly Jake Locker. He has Chad Johnson as a primary target and a coach who knows what he is doing. I think it may take him half the season to get used to the pace of the league, but by the end of the season watch out for what Locker can do in that offense.
CORSO: Not so fast, my friends. You are both missing out on the most obvious choice. Aldon Smith is a beast, and he will be in a defensive scheme with St. Louis that allows him to blitz, to make plays in the run game, and to show off his talent. St. Louis and Coach Arians got themselves an instant impact player in Smith and I see him causing all sorts of chaos this year.
Who Do You See Winning the MVP in 2011?
HEBERT: It would be easy to say either Warner or Hasselbeck again, but I am going to throw a curveball and say Joey Harrington. He wants to prove he is back, he is on a team that may have to recalibrate their offense to be much more passing focused, and he is not a newbie, he is a veteran passer who knows what to do and what to avoid. I see a big statistical year for him even if Oakland is not as good as a team.
CORSO: Bobby, I just don’t see an MVP coming out of a team that could be 8-8. It has to be a winning team, and I am going to go with a non-QB. Frank Gore has been an elite back and the focal point for Nashville’s offense forever, and I think this year he finally gets the attention he deserves. I am saying he tops 1,600 yards, more than 100 per game, and runs away with the MVP.
SWANN: I love you, Lee, but I don’t see it. MVP is almost always a QB and I think this year will be no different. My pick is going to be Brees. New Orleans was a playoff team last year. I think they are even better this year, and I think Brees uses that young receiver group to put up some superstar numbers. He wanted out of Orlando. He got it. And I think he proves he is worth everything the Breakers can afford to give him.
Which Non-Playoff Team from 2010 Will Not Only Get In but Could Go Deep into the Postseason?
CORSO: I really like what New Jersey is building. I love Sam Bradford. I think the defense is better this year, and I expect New Jersey to make a run that gets them above Baltimore and maybe even Philadelphia to finish 2nd behind Washington and get a Wild Card.
SWANN: I like the New Jersey pick, but I am going with Portland. They were close last year, and the Pacific feels like a division without a clear favorite. Oakland could be down. Las Vegas seems weaker, and the void means a team like Portland has a clear path to a potential division title.
HEBERT: I know it will make me sound like a homer, but I am going with the Michigan Panthers. Brian Griese is back and that makes all the difference. This is a team that could win the division if Griese can return to his MVP numbers, and I have faith that he can.
And Which 2010 Playoff Team Drops Out of the Hunt?
SWANN: I think it is Oakland. The Ricky Williams retirement is killer for them. Harrington is still not 100% back from injury, and the team is just not looking ready to run the gauntlet this year.
HEBERT: I agree about Oakland, but Las Vegas also looks like a team that is slipping instead of rising. That receiving group is not good. I don’t know how Jake Plummer is expected to progress without more around him, and Marshawn Lynch has just too much being asked of him.
CORSO: Two good picks, but kind of safe picks if you ask me. I am going to go with the Stars. They lost a lot this offseason, and they are in what could be the toughest division in football. If they cannot recover fast and find some new stars, I could see Washington, Baltimore, even New Jersey jumping over them in that division.
Can Houston Become Only the Second Team in League History to Repeat?
HEBERT: No. simple answer. It is so tough to do, and Houston is not a juggernaut like that Ohio squad in 2003. They are good, but there are plenty of teams that are as good or maybe better.
CORSO: Not so fast, Bobby. Houston has the best shot I have seen since that Ohio squad. They are stacked on both sides of the ball, and if you look at their conference, the biggest challenge may be Pittsburgh, who I just don’t see being able to stop them if it comes down to it. Who do you see in the league that has the balance that Houston has? No one.
SWANN: They have a shot, that is true. But it is so hard to repeat. Every single game you get the other team’s best effort. And on top of that you have to motivate your guys to do it again, when they already have had a taste of the title buzz. It is hard to stay focused. I think they have the talent, but is the hunger going to be there?
Who Takes Home the John Bassett Trophy When All is Said and Done?
CORSO: I am going to double down from the last question. I love what Coach Phillips has there in Houston. He has a run game. He has a veteran QB who can carry the team if needed. He has edge rushers, and he has a veteran leader at MLB with Farrior. This team is stacked and I say they repeat.
HEBERT: I am going to steal your trademark, Lee. Not so fast, my friend. I don’t see Houston repeating, though I think they are the best team in the West. I am going to go with a team that is hungry and on the rise. I say it goes to Pittsburgh this year. They find a way to beat Houston and move on to the Summer Bowl, and I think they are better than pretty much every team in the East.
SWANN: I can do this too. Not so fast, both of you. You are all acting like the Eastern Conference has no contenders. I still say whichever team can win out in the Northeast Division has an advantage because they will be used to fighting wars every single week. For me, the team that is set up to do that is Washington. I know that not everyone is on the David Garrard bandwagon, but I believe. They have improved their receiver group, they have an underrated defense, and they have Deuce McCallister, who everyone wants to see get a ring. I am going with Washington.
TEAM AND LEAGUE PREVIEWS
There you have it. We have heard from our expert panel. So now it is our turn. We pulled together all the bullpen picks and once again made our picks for each division. As we review each division, we will give you our picks and then look over each team, finishing with our pick to win it all.
This is, as our panel said, the toughest division in the league once again. We could see 4 of these 5 clubs all finishing at 8-8 or better, and they very well could have 3 playoff teams once again. Boston is still rebuilding, but with Jake Locker under center, we think they too are improved. Within our bullpen the consensus is that Washington overtakes Philadelphia for the division title, followed by the Stars, Generals, Blitz and Cannons, with both Philly and Jersey getting into the dance.
2010 Record: 10-6, Lost in Wild Card Round
Head Coach: Tom Coughlin (8th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: Signing DE Joe Tafoya. If you think that does not sound like a major coup, you would be right. Baltimore was not a major player in free agency, working mostly to add depth.
Impact Rookie: DE Robert Quinn. Lined up opposite Tafoya, Quinn will get every chance to be an immediate impact player for the Blitz defense.
Offense: Expect the 2011 Blitz to look a lot like the 2010 version, focusing on the run game with Ron Dayne as the bellcow, then play action and the occasional deep ball from Ben Roethlisberger. The receiving group is good with Hot, Heyward-Bey, and Antonio Gates starring. Expect to see more of Doug Gabriel this year as he has supplanted Craphonso Thorpe as the #3 receiver.
Defense: This is where we should expect to see some adjustments. Quinn and Tafoya join Zgonina on the 3-man line. Brandon Spikes is at the center and we will now see a full season with Jason Taylor on the weak side, blitzing often. The secondary is solid with Asomugha and Lucas outside and Adam Archuleta roaming the middle.
Outlook: Baltimore was a solid playoff contender in 2010 and they expect to be again in 2011. But can they do more? Is this a team able to take the next step and take the division and more? We are not so sure. We think 10 wins is a likely outcome and that could mean once again a Wild Card role.
2010 Record: 7-9, 5th in Division
Head Coach: John Fox (10th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: All about the defense. Boston signed 5 quality free agents and 4 of them were on defense, including FS Will Allen, DE Chuckie Nwokorie and LBs Corey Miller and Dat Nguyen. All four should start for the Cannons.
Impact Rookie: You know we have to say Jake Locker, right? I mean, you don’t make the deal Boston did without expecting Locker to be your guy for the next decade. Adrian McPherson will start the season under center, but we all know that it will be Locker’s team before long.
Offense: We expect the Cannons to rely heavily on their RBs (Mendenhall, Hunt and free agent Tatum Bell) to set the stage, hoping to use play action to give Jake Locker some easy throws to Chad Johnson. Boston still lacks a true #2, with Cedric Wilson in that spot at the moment. We do like the role that Percy Harvin is taking on in the slot, but a lot will depend on Locker and his growth into the pro game.
Defense: All new, and largely unknown. That is what we would say about this defense. Two new linebacker, a new DE opposite Jason Babin, and a reshuffled secondary still anchored in CB Fred Smoot. Can this group gel, and if so, how good can they be?
Outlook: Boston is a team in transition, and that could go smoothly or be a bumpy ride. They will likely be uneven, and need time to grow together, so an 8-win season would be a very good result for this year.
2010 Record: 8-8, 4th In Division
Head Coach: Herm Edwards, 3rd Season
Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Aaron Kampman away from the Outlaws is likely the most impactful move. Putting him opposite Shaun Ellis will make life tough for D-Coordinators, especially with both Raji and Ian Scott inside.
Impact Rookie: No immediate starters in the 2011 draft, but we expect Delone Carter and TE Virgil Green to contribute.
Offense: Will Bradford have a sophomore slump or will he grow into an elite QB? He has good weapons around him, including veterans catching the ball in Clayton, Houshmanzadeh, Holmes, and TE Anthony Becht. The line still looks a bit shaky for our taste, but the skill positions are there.
Defense: New Jersey is hoping to get pressure with their front 4, allowing Tinoisamoa, Fujita, and Donterrious Thomas to focus on the run and coverage. The starting corners (Nate Clements and Devin McCourty) are solid, but we are not sure about depth there. Bob Sanders and Tony Driver are a solid duo at safety.
Outlook: New Jersey was one game away from a playoff spot last year. To get over the hump they need more from Maurice Jones-Drew, they need their defense to take a step towards the Top 10, and they need Bradford to improve on a Rookie of the Year season. We think all three are pretty likely. We project New Jersey as a potential Wild Card in this division.
2010 Record: 11-5, Lost in Summer Bowl
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (7th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: Replacing Steve Smith with Stevie Johnson. They did not want Smith to leave, but in Johnson they have found a younger player who may be just as fast, just as brash, and just as effective.
Impact Rookie: The Stars were only able to sign 3 of their draft picks, with a lot of defections to the NFL. None of those three is slated to start this week. We think OT Anthony Castonzo from BC is the player most likely to see significant snaps, but we just don’t see a lot coming from this draft class.
Offense: A new #1 receiver in Johnson, a new #1 TE in Daniel Fells, and a QB who is still among the most accurate in football. Add to that perhaps the best line from LT all the way across to RT and the Stars’ offense should be just fine this year. The key may well be how #2 and #3 receivers Reche Caldwell and Troy Williamson step up to help Stevie Johnson adjust.
Defense: The D was the key for Philadelphia last year, and they could be again. Sean Lee could be even better with another year of experience and Robert Mathis is just starting to get the hang of how to be an effective edge rusher. Signing Darren Sharper was a good option for the Stars and should help the secondary avoid a let down after a very good 2010.
Outlook: The Stars came oh so close to a 4th title and we think they will be inspired to go that extra step this year, but in a very tough division, that could be a challenge. Lots of teams are gunning for them, so a #1 seed may be a tough feat to repeat, much less a conference and league title.
2010 Record: 10-6, Lost in Divisional Round
Head Coach: Sean Payton (5th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: The Feds kind of silently upgraded their receiving corps in a big way. The nabbed McCants from Charlotte in free agency and then made a deal with Texas to bring slot receiver Danny Amendola to town. There will be no excuses for Garrard if he does not continue his upward trajectory in 2011.
Impact Rookie: Impact Rookie: Another shrewd WR pickup in Dontrelle Inman from Uva, but we have to say DT Corey Liuget is the big get (see what we did there?) for the Feds. He will be an athletic presence in the line for the Feds, something they
sorely needed.
Offense: A lot depends on if Garrard can continue to produce at the level he did last year. We know Deuce will continue to be a focal point, but now the Feds have a much deeper, much shiftier receiver group for Garrard to work with, and that could be bad news for the rest of the division.
Defense: Liuget and Atkins inside, Chris Long and Kiawanuka outside. Lots of potential, but little proven track record. That is what we see. The LB group will still be Antonio Pierce’s to shape, but we are not seeing a lot of depth there. Ed Reed is the lynchpin for the entire defense. If he can shape up that secondary, the D could surprise some folks.
Outlook: We are putting Washington up there with New Jersey as potential contenders to knock off Philadelphia, but a lot of that is contingent on how the D-line gels and if Garrard is for real after a shaky start to his career. Could be 11 wins, could be 6.
If the NE Division is the toughest, the SE Division may well be the most balanced. You could make an argument for pretty much each and every team to finish first or to finish last. We had all kinds of disagreement on this one, although most thought that it would come down to the two non-Floridian teams, Atlanta and Charlotte in the end. After our polling we had Atlanta first, Charlotte second, followed by Tampa Bay, Orlando, and Jacksonville, but all of them within 1-2 games of .500.
2010 Record: 9-7, Lost in Divisional Round
Head Coach: Tom Ramsey (3rd Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: A pretty quiet offseason for the Fire, though we do like them bringing in Ryan Nece from Philly as a MLB option.
Impact Rookie: The Fire did better than most, signing 7 of their 10 picks, including Georgia LB Justin Houston. He will rotate with Nece inside, likely playing more passing downs to make use of his speed.
Offense: Josh Reed set the league on fire last year. He needs more help from Demaryius Thomas and Ted Ginn Jr, because this year every team will be doubling up on the 2010 yardage leader. We like the signing of rookie HB Anthony Allen because McFadden just had too many carries last year. The Fire will also keep using J. J. Arrington on third down, and that seems like a good plan to us.
Defense: The front 4 of Atlanta Is just getting started. Kelsay, Mosley, Jason Ferguson and Robaire Smith could develop into an elite squad. That would be helpful as both the LB group and the secondary can be hit or miss a times, even with Charles Woodson still locking up the #1 receiver each and every game.
Outlook: Atlanta was a surprise division champion in 2010. We think it may be an even bigger surprise if they can repeat. They have talent, to be sure, but they are not a juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination. We think 10 wins could be a ceiling for them.
2010 Record: 7-9, 5th in Division
Head Coach: Jim Mora Jr (4th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: The Monarchs were not shy about wanting a change at QB. They traded Chris Weinke to Seattle well before they had Jake Delhomme signed. But, Delhomme is the man now, and he will want to make an impact for his 3rd team in 3 years. He will get 2 shots at Jacksonville now that he is back in the division with the Bulls, and that should be fun.
Impact Rookie: Center Mike Pouncey will be a Day One starter for the Monarchs. He is big, but agile, and whip smart. We like this pick and signing a lot. We just wish they Monarchs had also been able to add some impact players in the skill positions.
Offense: Delhomme will throw to a revamped, but somewhat long in the tooth, receiving corps. D. J. Hackett is joined by Derick Mason and Anquon Boldin. Only Hakeem Nicks is on an ascending track in his career. Even HB Fred Jackson may be on the downside, so you have a relatively new team with a very old offensive roster.
Defense: Julius Peppers has found second life in Charlotte, but he is not doing it alone. We like the Monarch LB group quite a bit, led by MLB Rolando McClain, with young talent in Jerrod Mayo and Rey Mauluaga. A nice trio that can cover, chase down backs, and blitz.
Outlook: Charlotte came on strong at the end of 2010 and we think that momentum can continue into 2011. Now, we say that even with a pretty questionable offensive core. We think the defense will be key. Keep teams under 20 points and we think the Monarchs win those games.
2010 Record: 7-9, 4th in Division
Head Coach: Leslie Frazier (2nd Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: Trading to get G Damien Woody was a smart move, and our pick for the most impactful this offseason for the Bulls.
Impact Rookie: While we are somewhat luke warm about 1st round signee, safety Jaiquawn Jarrett, we do love LBK. J. Wright, who they picked up laterin the draft. DE Da’Quan Bowers could see a lot of snaps as well.
Offense: Year 2 for Tim Tebow and Tebowmania in Florida. He returns with pretty much the same hands group. C. J. Spiller behind him. Jason Whitten in close, and Rashaun Woods out wide. Beyond Woods, however, we are not as impressed with the receiver group, so Tebow may find himself scrambling quite a bit once again.
Defense: Mike Vrabel cannot do it all on his own, so the pick of K. J. Wright was a good one. The Bulls also want to see Marcus Stroud continue to develop and are hoping that Tim Crowder lining up on one end, will free up David Bowens on the other.
Outlook: Leslie Frazier’s club never quit last season, and 7-9 was at one point not looking very likely. Can they take another step? It is absolutely possible in a division that is very balanced top to bottom.
2010 Record: 8-8, 2nd in Division
Head Coach: Emmitt Thomas (6th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: The Trade. That is all we have to say. Orlando sent off 2x MVP Drew Brees and brought in Eli Manning. They are either geniuses or morons, and this season will be the litmus test.
Impact Rookie: Impact may be a lot to ask for from this group. James Carpenter, the Alabama OT, will get snaps. WR Leonard Hankerson will too, but we don’t see this as a very dynamic draft class for Orlando.
Offense: Manning will work with receivers Michael Jenkins, Justin McCaerins and free agent acquisition DeSean Jackson, but his best friend, as he was for Brees, will be Greg Olsen at TE. None of Mannings skills will matter if Knowshon Moreno cannot become the 1,000-1,200 yard rusher that Orlando keeps insisting he is meant to be.
Defense: The combo of Hayensworth inside and Calais Campbell outside is still nasty, but what else is there on this defense? The LB group looks a bit slow and a bit sloppy. Cortland Finnegan led the league in interceptions but that seems to be a byproduct of the pressure Campbell creates so can it be counted on again? We have our doubts.
Outlook: Orlando feels a bit desperate. We get that Brees was unhappy, but to shop him around just felt like a team that simply did not know where it wanted to go. So now they start over and hope they can find themselves. That sounds like the perfect formula for an underachieving year.
2010 Record: 7-9, 4th in Division
Head Coach: Mike Shula (1st Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: The Bandits were very active in free agency, signing 6 USFL free agents. The best of the new Bandits is WR Joey Galloway, but we all know he is a short term addition. DE Marcellus Wiley also fits that bill, so what we are seeing is a team that wants to win now, before their window completely closes.
Impact Rookie: Tampa took a shot at finding an heir apparent to Daunte Culpepper, but with Christian Gabbert jetting off to the NFL, the best rookie they actually have on the roster is TE Luke Stocker, who still feels like a big downgrade from Jeremy Shockey (off to the NFL).
Offense: Joey Galloway joins the Bandits as the #1, but how much is left in the tank for the former All-USFL receiver? The same could be said for so many Bandits. Culpepper. McGahee. Doering. This is a team that feels tired to us, and that is before the season even starts.
Defense: While perhaps in better shape than the offense, there is a lot of potential downward movement on the Bandit defense as well. Jonathan Vilma and Zeke Moreno are one year older. Bringing in Marcellus Wiley feels like a move they should have made 5 seasons ago. There is just not the burst of energy here that a team needs to make an impact.
Outlook: While the Southeastern Division is pretty balanced, we have to say that we think that Tampa Bay may be the team bringing up the rear. They just don’t excite us and seem to be clinging to a generation of players who are not what they once were.
For the past 3 years it has come down to the Breakers and the Knights clashing in Week 16 to determine the division winner, with both making the playoffs. We honestly don’t think Memphis or Birmingham are ready to change that dynamic. Our one alteration is that most believe that New Orleans, now with Drew Brees at the helm, find a way to win that Week 16 clash and take home the Division title. We see the Breakers at 1, Nashville in the playoffs at #2 with Memphis and Birmingham better but still under .500.
2010 Record: 2-14, 4th in Division
Head Coach: Mike Shanahan (3rd Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: Which of Birmingham’s 8 major offseason signings do we pick? As much as we want to praise the additions of CB Antonio Cromartie, DE Kamerion Wemberley, and LB Nate Webster, the biggest impact could come from NFL halfback Joseph Addai. While something of a reclamation project after a couple of nasty injuries with the NFL Colts, Addai has the potential to bring back something Birmingham has not seen in a long time, a 1,000 yard rusher.
Impact Rookie: In so many ways Cam Newton has already made a huge impact. His emergence in the 2010 Auburn championship season turned the USFL draft upside down. His signing with Birmingham over the NFL Panthers was a huge win for the Stallions. But now comes the hard part, living up to the hype that Newton is getting, particularly in Birmingham, but all across the league.
Offense: The Stallions could not land A. J. Green, so Newton will be working with Terrell Owens, Julian Edelman and rookie Jerrel Jerrigan. Addai will likely be the key to keeping pressure off of the rookie QB. If he rebounds well and teams are forced to respect the Stallion run game (for a change), it could make Newton’s transition to the pro game a lot smoother.
Defense: A largely reinvented group with Derrick Harvey coming over in trade, Ernie Sims signed from the NFL, Nate Webster and Antonio Cromartie in free agency, and rookie Shiloh Keo named the starter at SS, this will be a defense that will need to come together, learn who they are, and hopefully play as a unit if Birmingham wants to avoid another 10 loss season.
Outlook: We like the pieces Birmingham has put together, and the aggressiveness of their offseason plan, but this is a team that has to learn who they are. That could take most of the season before it becomes a factor, and that may mean that wins are hard to come by in March and April. Getting to .500 would be a major step for Coach Shanahan’s squad.
2010 Record: 6-10, 3rd in Division
Head Coach: Jim Haslett (7th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: The Showboats sent LB Keith Bullock to Pittsburgh for WR Matt Jones and CB Kareem Larrimore. That has been a highly criticized move in local circles. Both new players are deep down the depth chart right now, so the coaches seem to be agreeing that perhaps a mistake was made.
Impact Rookie: As much as we like the picks of DE Sam Acho (Texas) and Patrick DiMarco (So. Carolina), we have to say that Ryan Mallett’s development as a pro QB will be the key to whether or not the Showboats improve in 2011 or suffer another rough season as they rebuild their roster.
Offense: Mallett will have two solid backs to hand off to in Cadillac Williams and Shonn Greene. He also has a solid receiver group, particularly after Lee Evans resigned and rejoined Robert Ferguson, Sidney Rice and TE Jim Kleinsasser. There is talent here, but is the line good enough to help Mallet make use of it? They are solid at tackle and center with Gandy, Maurice Williams and Casey Rabach, but we are not so sure about the guards, Santucci and Alford, and about depth.
Defense: Sam Acho steps in at RE on day one. He and linemates Reggie Torbor and Dan Williams will have a lot on their plates as the hope to protect and free up a pretty good LB group (Kirk Morrison, Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman and Spencer Larsen). The secondary is talented at safety (Tebucky Jones and Coy Wire) but pretty thin and inexperienced at cornerback.
Outlook: Similar to Birmingham, a lot rides on how quickly and how well Ryan Mallett develops into a viable starting QB in the pro game. If Memphis can support him with a solid defense and a good run game, the Showboats could surprise some folks.
2010 Record: 10-6, Lost in Eastern Finals
Head Coach: Jim Johnson (17th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: The Knights only brought in two new vets in CB Duane Starks (FA from Arizona) and NFL DE Cullen Jenkins, but both could contribute right away. Jenkins is currently the swing end on the D-line, behind Gary Stills and Mario Addison, but we expect he will see his snaps increase each week. Starks, who has been with the team longer, is already set up as the #2 CB behind only Willie Middlebrooks.
Impact Rookie: Mario Addison, the midround pick out of Troy State is already slated as a starter on the Nashville D-line, quite a surprise honestly. His physical skills will be tested as he faces much tougher competition in the USFL than he ever did at Troy.
Offense: Frank Gore remains the heart and soul of this offense. The only major new arrival is rookie WR Denarious Moore, already set up as a starter opposite Robert Meachem. Honestly, the depth of talent on the Knight offense is a bit dubious, but they are strong across the entire O-line and that can hide a lot of deficiencies elsewhere.
Defense: Shaun Rogers anchors a questionable D-line, something we rarely see in a Jim Johnson team. But, if either Addison or Jenkins emerges, the group could be better than anticipated. Terrell Suggs will be a regular blitzer, to be sure, and Hunter Hillenmeyer will keep the LB group focused. We still love safety LaRon Landry, and the acquisition of Duane Starks is a definite upgrade. The D, as usual with Johnson-led teams, will be the focal point for the Knights once again.
Outlook: As much as we trust Jim Johnson to put together a competitive squad that will battle each week, we are wondering if Nashville has enough to once again make a deep playoff run. So much depends on if Jay Cutler can finally take the next step.
2010 Record: 9-7, Lost in Wild Card Round
Head Coach: Mike Nolan (12th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: As with Orlando, the big story of the offseason was the QB swap that brought Drew Brees to the Bayou. Brees is a proven commodity, but one who will need to learn about a whole new roster around him.
Impact Rookie: The Breakers signed only 3 players out of 9 picks, but in DE Cameron Jordan and CB Patrick Peterson they may have landed two of the best defenders available in this year’s class. Both are already solidly among the starting 11 on defense, with Peterson competing with Randall Gay to be the #1 corner while Jordan is expected to balance the D-line opposite Ty Warren.
Offense: Drew Brees has a very young, very fast WR group in Santana Moss, Early Doucet, Donnie Avery, Brandon LaFell and DeMetrius Byrd. He will also hope that the combo of Matt Forte and Michael Robinson can take the pressure off, because the clear issue with the Breaker offense is the line. No standouts and a couple of question marks on the line mean that Brees may need to improvise a bit more than he would like.
Defense: Peterson and Jordan jump into a defense that already had strong credentials with the likes of Jason Peters, Ty Warren, Hannibal Navies, and Mike Doss as leaders. Navies may be in the toughest position, because the rest of the LB group (Calvin Pace, Daryl Smith, and Bradie James) have not been as consistent as New Orleans needs them to be.
Outlook: While the focal point will be on Brees this year, in our minds the key to New Orleans finally getting past Nashville and taking the division is the defense. If Jordan and Peterson deliver on their potential, this squad should improve, and that could be enough to finally get New Orleans over the hump.
Is Michigan back now that Griese is? Is Pittsburgh truly ascendant? Is Chicago on the decline or ready to rebound? And what do we make of St. Louis and Ohio’s chances? The answer, at least within our group, is that we believe in a Panthers revival. We see Michigan and Pittsburgh battling for the Division, Chicago barely missing out on the playoffs. St. Louis improving within the division but finishing 4th, and Ohio still in rebuild mode at the bottom of the group.
2010 Record: 9-7, Lost in Divisional Round
Head Coach: Marty Mornhinweg (13th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: Two big moves to try to keep the secondary intact after Darren Sharper signed with Philly. The first was at the same position, bringing in veteran Reggie Tongue. Chicago then added a quality veteran corner from the NFL, a player who may also see some time at safety, former Lions DB James Joseph.
Impact Rookie: Safety remained a focus with UNC’s Da’Norris Searcy and Nebraska’s Dejon Gomes both selected and signed. Both start the year as backups behind Tongue and Corey Hall, but we expect to see both contributing in dime packages and potentially on special teams.
Offense: For a supposed offensive guru, Marty Mornhinweg seems less likely than most to try something new. The Machine offense will very likely still be focused on Michael Turner and the play action opportunities he can provide to brady Quinn. Rookie Austin Pettis will be the new target in the slot, along with TE’s Anthony Fasano and Ben Hartsook, but as in the past 3 years, expect a lot of balls to be thrown towards Donald Driver once again.
Defense: Chicago’s defense is getting older and possibly slower. They still have some younger talent like Ellis Wyms and Kendrell Bell, but Urlacher, Weaver, and Tommy Polley are slowing down a bit, which has to be a concern for the Machine and their faithful fans.
Outlook: Chicago is solid. Not flashy, but solid. The question becomes whether or not solid is good enough. Two years ago it was good enough for 2nd place behind a flashy Michigan squad. Last year, by a half game, they were again in 2nd place, this time behind a young and hungry Pitttsburgh squad. If both the Maulers and Panthers are back to their winning ways, we could see Chicago in 3rd, not 2nd, but if the Machine can just add a bit of innovation, then 1st place may be an option for them.
2010 Record: 8-8, 3rd in Division
Head Coach: Dick LeBeau (8th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: Honestly nothing earthshaking came out of the offseason for Michigan. They signed some backups at DE and HB, and traded for guard Elroy Wells, but none of those moves feel like they impact the overall quality of the roster for the Panthers.
Impact Rookie: OT Gabe Carimi from Wisconsin is expected to fit right in at left tackle right away, which is both promising and somewhat scary for Brian Griese, who lost nearly all of the 2010 season to injury. If Carimi lives up to the promise he showed as a Badger, then Griese may have a franchise LT for the rest of his career, but if he has typical rookie issues, then Griese may spend this season running for his life.
Offense: If Carimi works out, then Michigan could have one of the best lines in the game. They have two outstanding guards in Andy Levitre and Lennie Friedman, and Jeff Faine at Center is a rock, but those tackles, we just don’t know. Griese returns and he still has an outstanding trio in Ward, Coles, and Manningham. He also hopes that former NFL back Thomas Jones finds his 2nd speed this year and can help alleviate the pressure to throw the ball. We shall see.
Defense: There is concern in Michigan that too many pieces have wandered off the roster in recent years. The strength of the D remains the LB group of Katzenmoyer, Odell Thurman and DeMarcus Ware, but the front line looks less than intimidating. The secondary has talent in Deltha O’Neal, Chris Canty, and Tyrone Carter, but they still give up far too many deep balls. Watch this group to see if they remain exposed to the big play or if they change things up and can force teams to play small ball.
Outlook: We think the Panthers can bounce back after last year’s drop. If Griese is back to form, and that is the big ‘if’ this year, then we see Michigan competing for the division and maybe more.
2010 Record: 4-11-1, 5th in Central
Head Coach: Bart Andrus (1st Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: The Collins-George-Galloway era is now definitively gone. Enter Steve Smith, a very different type of receiver, but a very dynamic and dangerous one too. He was electric for the Stars last year, and Ohio wasted no time in free agency bringing in the firebrand. He will either torch the opposition or burn the house down in Columubus. But, hey, no pressure to get this right.
Impact Rookie: Ohio wanted Jake Locker badly. Birmingham and Boston outmanuevered them, but the consolation prize, DT Marcell Dareus, is a pretty good one. Dareus will eat up space in the middle, making life easier for both DE’s Chauncey Davis and Isaac Hilton, and for MLB James Laurinaitis, already one of the league’s best.
Offense: If Vince can return to form after a couple of rough years with injuries in the NFL, he could be another 10-year starter for the Glory. His skill set is very different from Kerry Collins, as he is just as likely to bowl you over on a scramble than throw the perfect pass. He has a good receiver group in TE Stephen Alexander, Steve Smith, Aurelious Benn and resigned slot man Javon Walker. The big question is at tailback, where rookie DeMarco Murray is expected to get the the lead role with Kevin Smith and James Jackson also getting carries.
Defense: Coach Andrus wants this team to be known for its defense, but we are not sure they are there yet. Getting Dareus certainly helps. Laurinaitis leads a smart, but somewhat slow LB group with Nick Greisen and Glenn Cadrez. The secondary is led by CB Joe Haden, but beyond him we are not so sure they are a Top 10 group. We see this defense as perhaps 1 more offseason away from being what Andrus wants to see.
Outlook: The rebuild has begun in earnest, and some pieces are in place, but in this tough division, that may not translate to more wins this year. All 4 other Central clubs feel like they are slightly ahead of the curve in comparison with the Glory. So, spend the season looking for areas of growth and signs of future potential.
2010 Record: 9-6-1, Lost in Western Finals
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (6th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: The Maulers wanted one more thumper in the LB group to intimidate rushers and receivers over the middle. Their trade with Memphis absolutely landed them what they craved in the form of Keith Bullock. The former Showboat will likely alternate between Strong Side and MLB in the Mauler system, alternating with Barrett Green depending on down and distance.
Impact Rookie: All the buzz in the Iron City is about the 3-headed monster Coach Rivers created by drafting and signing Andy Dalton from TCU. Now Dalton shares the QB room with former #1 pick Pat White, and starter Cody Pickett. That could be the best QB room in the league, or it could be a recipe for disaster. We would not be shocked to see 1 of the 3 traded before midseason just to reduce the pressure.
Offense: For now this is Cody Pickett’s team, and well it should be after a solid season and a deep playoff run that took the Maulers to a division title and the Conference Final. The Maulers tried to address the departure of DeShaun Foster as best they could, bringing in NFL back Ronnie Brown to compete with Kenny Watson for carries. They have promoted speedy WR Victor Cruz to the #2 spot, putting Kevin Johnson in the slot, and they have a solid 1-2 combo at TE with Jimmie Graham and Owen Daniels. This is an offense which could be even better in 2011, and that should scare folks in this division.
Defense: As much as we are impressed by the potential of the Mauler offense, the defense remains the star. DE Jared Allen, the reinforced LB group, and a 4 man defensive backfield that could be the league’s best, with Surtain and Dunta Robinson outside and Sean Taylor and Scott Shields inside. This is likely to be a top 5, possibly top 1-2 defense in the league.
Outlook: The Maulers look primed to take another shot at a Summer Bowl appearance. If Pickett can repeat last year’s success, and if the defense is as good on the field as they appear on paper, this will be a team that is hard to stop. We see them going far, perhaps all the way.
2010 Record: 5-11, 4th in Division
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (2nd Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: A lot of depth moves for the Skyhawks in the offseason. They brought in role players in LB Brandon Siler (NFL Chiefs), and DT Kendrick Clancy. The biggest signing has to be guard Leonard Davis, who could still have 5-6 solid All-USFL years left in him. If he can help spur a run game, the Skyhawks could be on their way to winning records in the future.
Impact Rookie: The ‘Hawks failed to land CB Prince Amukamara, but they did find success in other avenues, particularly in the T-Draft, where they landed all 3 selections, including Missouri LB Aldon Smith, a potential Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate.
Offense: Continued development by Josh Freeman is the key. The Skyhawks have shown they can run the ball with Antowain Smith. Taylor Jacobs leads a pretty decent receiver group along with Jordy Nelson and Sinorice Moss. We are still waiting for Tony Moeaki to show the potential he had in college, so the TE group is still a question, but with the addition of Davis, the line does look better than the slapshot version we have seen in recent years. Davis, along with LT Brian Bulaga and C Shaun O’Hara make the left side of the line a potential force. The right side, well, they try hard.
Defense: Richard Seymour is the heart of the defense, and the best player on it. The pass rush combo of Eddie Freeman and Antonio Smith still feels a bit undermanned, so expect the Skyhawks to blitz with players like rookie Aldon Smith, ROLB Wali Rainier, and safeties Antuan Edwards and Kendrick Lewis.
Outlook: Still very much a work in progress, but we see what Coach Arians is building and we think he is moving into an area where a 2-4 win season should no longer be an option. An 8-8 record, or even better should be the goal, it is an ambitious one in a division this tough, but it is a realistic ambition.
Houston was the consensus division winner, without much debate. After that it gets pretty interesting. Folks in our bullpen thought that all three of the remaining teams were capable of surprising us. Denver got the most votes for 2nd, but there was a lot of support for both Arizona and Texas rising up and possibly displacing the Gold for 2nd place. Can any of them challenge Houston? For us at least the answer was no.
2010 Record: 7-9, 4th in Division
Head Coach: Jim Tomsula (3rd Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: The Wranglers limited their offseason moves to the draft and free agency within the USFL pool, signing 4 veterans, including QB Dave Dickerson, OT Wade Smith, and DE Andre Wadsworth, but the clear “big move” was their ability to pull Troy Polamalu away from the LA Express. Polamalu is a generational talent who can transform a defense not just with his play but with his attitude. We think Coach Tomsula is going to love crafting the defensive scheme around Polamalu’s 150% effort and pirate mentality.
Impact Rookie: The Wrangler lacked the big name signing, with 1st round pick Ryan Kerrigan opting to go to the NFL Redskins instead of the USFL. We think HB Stevan Ridley can certainly help the run game, spelling Tomlinson as needed, and we like the potential of OT John Moffitt and OG Keith Williams, but we don’t see any 1st year stars in the pool of new arrivals.
Offense: David Carr had a nice jump in year two with the Wranglers. His QBR went from a miserable 58.3 in 2009 to a respectable 85.0 in 2010, but to really be competitive, Arizona will want to see that number up in the 90’s which means a stronger TD:INT ratio and a better completion rate than his 2010 number of 53.8%. In Larry Fitzgerald he has an elite receiver. His 2nd target is often TE Rob Gronkowski, a mismatch nightmare for defenses. Antonio Bryant and Mike Williams will round out the receiver group, and, of course, you have future HOF back LaDainian Tomlinson as the lead back. If the reinforced line (Moffit and Wade Smith are now both starters) can provide basic protection and running lanes, Arizona’s offense has all the potential in the world to take another step up.
Defense: We all know that Polamalu’s presence is going to help CB’s Jimmy Williams and Mike Mickens, as well as the entire LB corps. We are still a little underwhelmed by free safety Nate Allen, and the edge rush combo of Adam Carriker and Larry English is not elite, and may not even be good. Polamalu cannot do it all on his own, so we see Arizona again struggling on defense but with a higher takeaway potential with Polamalu on the field.
Outlook: Arizona could struggle to escape the basement of a pretty tough division. Denver is solid, Texas is on the precipice of being a playoff team, and then you have the Gamblers, league champions and still looking like a very solid contender. Arizona should be better this year, but will that help at all?
2010 Record: 12-4, Lost in Divisional Round
Head Coach: Dick Jauron (14th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: Denver rarely dives into the pricey free agent market, and they barely dipped their toes in this year, signing only punter Brad Costello and LB Will Overstreet. That is it. No NFL guys, no trades, a very “stay the line” offseason. That may not be enough in this division.
Impact Rookie: While we are down on the Gold’s free agent strategy, we are not going to complain about their draft. For a “build through the draft” team, they have proven time and again that they excel at finding young talent. In both OT Nate Solder, down from Boulder, and center Stefen Wisniewski from Penn State, Denver believes they have found two immediate starters and two potential 10-year locks on their line. That would be huge.
Offense: Coach Jauron does not ask Matt Leinart to do a lot, preferring a defensive/run game focus, but last year Leinart’s numbers had him among the league leaders. If he can do that again, once again focusing on WR Peerless Price, and slot receiver Keary Colbert as his two main targets, the Gold can be solid. Javon Ringer and Maurice Hicks will continue to share carries, and this year they will run behind a line that has two top tier rookie linemen as well as veterans Ryan Clady, Travis Claridge and Elton Brown. They won’t win a shootout game, but they rarely find themselves in that situation, which is fine with them.
Defense: Denver expects to see 2nd year DT Ndamukon Suh take another big step, from very good to dominant in 2011. He will need to as we don’t see another clear “big time” player either on the line or in the LB group. Shawne Merriman has moments but he also seems to fade from games at times. The secondary is solid, with the Williamses (Roy and Jamel) locking down the middle while Tory James and Jamar Fletcher hold down the outside.
Outlook: Denver will be right there all season, but right there could end up meaning 2nd or 3rd place in the division. We have trouble seeing them outpacing Houston, and Texas is coming on. The Gold will need another efficient year from Leinart and more from the defense to stay in the title hunt in the SW Division.
2010 Record: 12-4, League Champion
Head Coach: Wade Phillips (11th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: Defending champs often see their rosters picked clean in the ensuing offseason, and there was some of that this year, but Houston did sign 4 free agents, including DT Kenard Lang, who could be a great addition to their D-Line. But overall our favorite move was signing Willie Colon away from the NFL Steelers. He has played at guard and RT, but Houston believes he can be the answer at LT. He is a talented guy, but that is a big leap.
Impact Rookie: The Gamblers only signed 3 of 8 picks this year, but we do like DT Phil Taylor out of Baylor, especially because he can watch and learn from Lang this year. WR Jeremy Kerley may see some snaps in the slot and should have a role on special teams.
Offense: Pretty much the same crew that helped Houston win 12 in a row and win their 4th league title, so that cannot be bad. Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, Roy Williams, Ike Hilliard,Mike Sims-Walker, and Vernon Davis. The offensive line took some hits in free agency, but adding Willie Colon could be the remedy to those concerns. This will still be a formidable offense that can hurt you in a variety of ways.
Defense: Kenard Lang and John McCargo will anchor a 4-3 defense that still features two nasty edge rushers in Pitmann and Umenyiura. That group helps cover up what is largely a solid, but not game-changing LB group. Though we should cite that James Farrior is a natural leader and one of the smartest players on the field in any game. The secondary is elite at CB with Springs and Barber, and we like Patrick Chung as well, but free safety Willie Andrews may be the key. He had a breakout season last year, and if he can repeat that, this secondary could be tough to beat.
Outlook: Houston looks as likely to repeat as any champion since the unbeaten Ohio Glory in 2002. They have offensive weapons, defensive muscle, and an attitude that their work is not yet done. We expect them to be among the 4 clubs in the Conference title games when this is all said and done.
2010 Record: 8-8, 3rd in Division
Head Coach: Greg Landry (2nd Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: The Outlaws signed more free agents than any other team, including WR Roscoe Parrish, TE Chris Cooley, LB Rocky Boiman, and Guard Solomon Page. Of all of these, we believe Chris Cooley may be the biggest add. He is exactly the kind of safety valve that Joe Flacco needs to be productive when the deep routes are not there.
Impact Rookie: The Outlaws did all they could to attract DE Cameron Heyward to San Antonio, but in the end the NFL Steelers got the upper hand. So who did Texas sign? How about T-Draft selections HB Jay Finley and G Danny Watkins, both from Baylor, along with Open Draft picks Jonas Mouton and Casey Matthews, both linebackers. Mouton has looked the best in camp and should rotate in with Bart Scott at MLB in Texas’s LB group.
Offense: The additions of Roscoe Parrish and Chris Cooley should provide Joe Flacco more options on short to mid routes, which is a nice addition to the arsenal. But, let’s be honest, this is still T. J. Duckett carrying the load. Joe Flacco has a great arm, but is not all that mobile, so the key is to fool the defense into going after Duckett, then having the time to get the ball deep to Colston or Brandon Marshall. If that fails, at least now Flacco can dump it to his TE or slot guy and still salvage a play.
Defense: Luis Castillo and Reynaldo Wynn need to play up to the hype that Outlaw fans have about them. We have just not seen the numbers wee need to see from them. The same could also be said about LB Chad Greenway, who has largely vanished after a couple of very strong early years. We love the pair of Michael Boulware and Nathan Vasher at corner, but we are unsold that Terrance Holt and Clyde Adams are consistent enough at safety to make this an elite secondary.
Outlook: Texas feels like a team overdue to bust out, but they just don’t. We had folks in our bullpen thinking they would win 11 games, and others saying 5 or 6. What that tells us is that there is potential, but not yet production to warrant a major run. Is this the year they can actually convert that potential into wins?
Much like the Southeast Division, the conversation here was all about who wants it most. It was a close vote, but we had Portland first, Las Vegas second, Oakland slipping to third, with LA and Seattle battling not to finish last. We could envision no team in this division losing more than 10 games, but we also struggle to see any team winning more than 10 games. This could be another division where the eventual champion is 9-7 and wins on tiebreakers.
2010 Record: 9-7, Lost in Wild Card Round
Head Coach: June Jones (2nd Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: The Thunder, after years of big signings, took 2010-2011 off and looked a lot like the Denver Gold, hoping to build through the draft. They found a backup QB in Ingle Martin (POR) and added some quality at DE with Adewale Ogunleye, who should start opposite Erasmus James this year, but overall a very quiet offseason in the desert.
Impact Rookie: Another team that struggled with NFL teams snapping up their draft picks. They did land #1 pick, OT Marcus Gilbert, a big road grater out of Florida. He is already slated to serve as Jake Plummer’s RT, which is key for both the run game and protection of the older QB.
Offense: Plummer will again be under center and again will focus a lot of snaps on Marshawn Lynch. No other back has had the same snapcount as Lynch in the past 5 years. That is not ideal, so Las Vegas needs to make more use of the pass game. The problem is their receiver group may well be the weekest in the league. Led by Marty Booker, with Kahlil Hill and Aldrick Robinson in the slot, there are few defenses that fear this group, and that could be trouble for the Thunder.
Defense: The Las Vegas defense dropped precipitously last year in nearly every ranking. James and Flowers could not get pressure on QB’s, Will Allen and Antoine Winfield are solid but got little help from safeties Chad Scott and Sean Jones, and outside of the ageless Joey Porter, the LB group was underwhelming. And, if that is still what we see this year, with very few additions, then Las Vegas will struggle to compete with some of the more offensively-capable teams.
Outlook: We are somewhat underwhelmed by the Thunder’s offseason, and that may well lead to the club taking a step back rather than stepping up. Oakland seems to be in decline, but Las Vegas does not seem to be in a position to fill the void they will leave.
2010 Record: 5-11, 5th in Division
Head Coach: Gregg Williams (2nd Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: No big trade, and landing NFL back La’Ron McClain is not really a big step up for LA, but they were very active in free agency, signing 5 players, including SS Lance Schulters, who will have huge shoes to fill after the Express saw Troy Polamalu depart. We like Schulters, as well as center Chris Spencer, but we are not sure that is enough for the Express to step into contention.
Impact Rookie: LA’s strategy with OT Tyron Smith backfired. Rather than protect him in the T-Draft they used a #1 pick on him, but he signed with the NFL anyway. Maybe the extra time and attention a T-Draft selection provides would not have been enough in the end, but it was worth a shot, rather than losing out on a first round pick in the open draft. LA signed only 3 draftees, but one of them, UCLA’s Rahim Moore could be a potential solution, in tandem with Schulters for the departed Polamalu.
Offense: Fans still question if Mark Sanchez has the potential to ever be elite, but his solid year in 2010 meant that LA did not pursue other options, signing only Kevin Kolb, a clear number 2. With Randy Moss, Keyshawn Johnson and rookie draftee Ronald Johnson, Sanchez will have targets. The question remains whether or not he will have a run game. Ray Rice keeps showing flashes, but never puts together a streak of solid games. Part of that may be on the line, which is uneven and quite weak at tackle.
Defense: The key to the LA defense is how their LB group plays. Clay Matthews is inside, with Keith Rivers and Lofa Tatupu outside. That is a talented group and yet we are not seeing the production we expect from them. Keneche Udeze is still a beast as an edge rusher, and he gets help inside from Anthony McFarland, but behind them we often see misalignments and missed tackles, and that is never a good thing. The secondary right now is a huge question. Other than CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, we just don’t know what we are going to get.
Outlook: LA looks and feels like a team that has not found out yet what they do well, and maybe it is not something big enough or good enough to help them win games. They are competitive in a lot of games, but they seem to find a way to fail. That is an issue that will not be solved by losing your most engaged and enthusiastic player.
2010 Record: 9-7, Lost in Wild Card Round
Head Coach: Dennis Green (9th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: While NFL receiver Dereck Hagan has potential to be a good move, Oakland’s best moves were on defense, resigning Pearson Prioleau at safety and adding both Mike Maslowski and Nick Koutavides to the LB group. But is it enough?
Impact Rookie: HB Ryan Williams has to be the answer to this question if Oakland has any shot to retain their perch atop the Pacific Division. The departure of Ricky Williams was a shock to the Invader Nation and to the plans for 2011. As much as the club’s selection of Colin Kaepernick (now a 49er) meant they were concerned about the future, the Williams pick is their best hope for a fruitful present season.
Offense: Williams will have every opportunity to be the main man in the Oakland run game. He is a very different back from Ricky, but he can be effective behind a very good line. Joey Harrington says he is back to 100%, but only game action will show us if that is the case. The offense will still run through the halfback, and if Williams is overwhelmed by the speed of the USFL game, it could be a problem for Oakland.
Defense: The defense remains very solid, and with the addition of two new inside backers, they may even be better against the run. Sedrick Ellis is solid in the middle, and we expect to see even more out of DE Justin Smith this year as he matures into a legitimate edge threat. Prioleau and Eric Wright are quality players in the secondary, but as with several other teams, free safety seems a huge hole. Will it be rookie Chris Conte or veteran backup Fred Cline? Or, will Oakland need to make a midseason deal if both have difficulty?
Outlook: As we said in the first half of our preseason report, we see Oakland as a team that may have peaked, and may be dropping down the standings this year. Both Las Vegas and Portland seem to have more happening, and Seattle is still a possible threat. Could 8-8 and a dip out of playoffs be the result?
2010 Record: 8-8, 3rd in Division
Head Coach: Rich Brooks (4th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: The trade with New Jersey to bring Ryan Fitzpatrick to the Stags has the potential to either set this team up for greater success or blow the whole team dynamic up. Fitzpatrick has been competing with A. J. Feeley in camp, and while Feeley is getting the Week 1 start, largely due to his familiarity with the system, there are many observers, including local press, who have been saying that the newcomer may be the better option in the long run.
Impact Rookie: We are not entirely sure what Portland got from the draft. They failed to sign CB Jimmie Smith, their first round choice, and are another club that landed only 3 of their top picks (T-Draft and Top 5 rounds). TE Jordan Cameron from USC looks like a keeper and may well start this week, but neither safety Mark LeGree from App State or DT Stephen Paea seem like immediate impact players.
Offense: Regardless of which QB eventually gets the permanent starting gig, the Stags will continue to rely on the run game provided by Jonathan Stewart. They brought in Michael Bush to spell him occasionally, but we still see 300 carries or more for Stewart in the future. The other offensive signing is in the slot, where Antwan Randle-El has made his career.
Defense: Portland will shift to a 4-3 this year, with Jason Fisk andKedrick Gholston inside, hopefully allowing more options for Elvis Dumervil to pressure the QB. That means only 3 LBs will be o the field. Newly arrived Mark Simoneau takes over the MLB spot from Mike Maslowski, and will likely be flanked by Channing Crowder and Justin Durant. Darnell Bing joins Terrell Bierria and corners Mike Rumph and Marquand Manuel to form the primary secondary, though we expect to see a lot of DeAngelo Hall as the nickel as well. It is a solid group, but not a defense that can carry the entire team. They will need a coherent offense to be able to pull out games even if the D does their part.
Outlook: If any team is going to break through in the division this year and upend the status quo, it is likely to be Portland. They have been knocking on the door for a couple of seasons but need to find the right formula to escape the middle of the pack if they want a shot at the division.
2010 Record: 7-9, 4th in Division
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis (9th Season)
Biggest Offseason Move: Honestly the biggest move might be the one that backfired, trading several picks to St. Louis to move up and select Von Miller in the 1st round of the Open Draft. Miller opted to sign with the NFL Broncos, leaving Seattle with nothing to show for their investment. In other player moves, they brought in Chris Weinke to back up Leftwich and signed free agent LB T. J. Slaughter and guard Bill Ferrario, but none of those deals really moves the needle much.
Impact Rookie: The Von Miller pick did not work out, but Seattle did sign 6 of their remaining 8 picks. They were smart to double dip at LB by also drafting (and signing) UCLA linebacker Akeem Ayers, a likely week one starter. We also like the look of mid-round pick Richard Sherman, a plucky cornerback out of Stanford. DE Christian Ballard and OG Stephen Shilling should also see significant snaps.
Offense: It is still Leftwich to Boston for the win in Seattle. The Jahvid Best-Ladell Betts duo has just not done what the Dragons had hoped, but they are giving it one more shot. And while Nate Burleson has proven to be a decent possession receiver, he is not a threat to most secondaries when it comes to big plays. The line is still anchored by LT Kenyatta Jones, and RT Chad Clifton is solid as well, but between those two we are just not confident in the inside strength of this group.
Defense: We love the trio being put out there on passing downs with rookie Sherman joining Marques Truffant and Leodis McKelvin as primary coverage DBs. That allows Paris Lenon and Shaun Schillinger to focus on covering gaps and stuffing run plays. The LB group will benefit from Ayers signing on, and the acquisition of Slaughter means both outside positions look good. Just how long Jamie Winborn will hold up is a question, as is the D-line with older players at all 3 positions (Noble, Abraham,and LaBoy). This could be a team that needs to start thinking youth and fast.
Outlook: Seattle feels like a club trying to hold on with the older gang when what they need is a transfusion of new blood. Can they win games this year? Of course. But do they have a long term plan to return to a position to take another title? It does not feel like it.
So, who do we pick to win it all. A lot of theories. A lot of debate. But in the end, the vote went to Houston for the repeat, winning out over Washington in the Summer Bowl. That said, there were votes within our team for New Orleans, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Michigan, and even Arizona, but when we got deep into the voting process, we ended up with a repeat win for the Gamblers. Take that for what you will.
Week One, a new start, and every team is 0-0 with a chance to put a W on the board and start the season right. The schedule for Week 1 is stacked, and it all kicks off with a Summer Bowl rematch on Friday Night. Here is your Week 1 USFL Schedule. Enjoy the games, everyone. As always, national broadcasts are in bold font and divisional matchups in blue.
FRIDAY @ 8pm ET Houston @ Philadelphia NBC
SATURDAY @ 12pm ET Tampa Bay @ Boston ABC
SATURDAY @ 12pm ET Texas @ Washington FOX
SATURDAY @ 12pm ET Las Vegas @ Atlanta FOX
SATURDAY @ 4pm ET Orlando @ Nashville ABC
SATURDAY @ 4pm ET Michigan @ Arizona FOX
SATURDAY @ 8pm ET New Orleans @ Birmingham ESPN
SUNDAY @ 12pm ET Ohio @ Pittsburgh ABC
SUNDAY @ 12pm ET Chicago @ St. Louis ABC
SUNDAY @ 12pm ET Charlotte @ Memphis FOX
SUNDAY @ 4pm ET Seattle @ Portland ABC
SUNDAY @ 4pm ET Los Angeles @ Denver FOX
SUNDAY @ 4pm ET Jacksonville @ Oakland FOX
SUNDAY @ 8pm ET Baltimore @ New Jersey EFN