A momentous, surprising, and potentially league-altering offseason has come to a close, and with all teams wrapping up their preseason schedule and gearing up for opening weekend, there is a lot to be excited about. Of course, for every team that has their fans excited about the upcoming season there is another whose fanbase is concerned that their moves were either not enough to keep pace or not the right decisions. That uncertainty, along with the hope that many fans feel, is the very essence of the preseason in pro football. Not knowing if the highly rated rookie will come out of the gates on fire, or will stumble and underperform against expectations. Add to that the preseason chaos that always impacts the USFL due to the timing of its draft and that of the rival NFL, as well as the transfer window that allows players to jump leagues only twice in a calendar year, and you have a lot of rosters in flux right up until opening day.
Nashville Loses Luck, Signs Manning in Blockbuster Deal
In what has clearly been the story of the offseason, Nashville’s QB situation has absorbed the entire USFL biosphere since the first weeks of free agency, through the draft, and into camp. As you will recall, as the 2011 season wound down, QB Jay Cutler expressed his dissatisfaction with how he was being utilized in Nashville’s offense, and particularly with the limitations that Coach Jim Johnson had placed on his ability to audible and to seek to make big plays in an offense designed for ball control. Within days of being eliminated in the Wild Card game, a 5th consecutive loss for the Knigthts, Cutler was publicly demanding to be traded.
Almost immediately the Knights seemed ready to deal their starting QB, but they found no takers, no one willing to provide what they asked to have Cutler join a potential rival team in the league. They held their ground until the NFL-USFL transfer window was about to open and then surprisingly released Cutler. The move had the desired effect for Nashville. While they did not get compensation for their release of Cutler, as opposed to a trade, it quickly became apparent that Cutler would jump leagues to the NFL, ensuring that he would not be a factor in the USFL. Within 1 week of being eligible to make a deal with an NFL team Cutler was in Chicago, shaking hands and putting on a Bears cap to symbolize his new contract.
When that came to pass, it was clear that Nashville would need a plan to acquire a quarterback. That plan revolved around the consensus top talent in the College Draft, Stanford QB Andrew Luck. Luck’s rights were within the protected territorial schools of the Oakland Invaders, which meant that Oakland could opt to draft Luck, trade the pick so that someone else could do the same, or simply not use one of their three picks on the QB, which would all but ensure a feeding frenzy with the Boston Cannons, who owned the first pick in the Open Draft. Many even debated whether Oakland would try to trade Joey Harrington, their starter, to Nashville and then draft Luck. But, in the end, that did not happen. The Invaders got what they wanted from Nashville, a selection of picks and a key defensive player, edge rusher Terrell Suggs. Suggs would be in Oakland and Nashville would obtain Oakland’s first T-Draft pick, with an agreement that Luck would be that pick.
When the T-Draft came around, it was not a surprise at all that Nashville listed Luck as their target with the traded pick from Oakland. It was by this point a foregone conclusion. But, as with all draft picks for the USFL (and NFL), getting into position to select the player you covet is only half the battle. Nashville approached Luck’s agent, hoping to get a deal on the table before the NFL draft, but, as we see with nearly all top prospects, Luck and his agent would not agree to anything, even with a handshake, before seeing what the NFL Draft would produce. When it produced Luck as the #1 overall pick, a choice by the Indianapolis Colts, the war of offers would begin.
Indianapolis would contribute to the offseason chaos in two ways, their selection of Luck, but also their release of 3-time NFL Champion and MVP Peyton Manning. Manning, who had recently signed a 5-year deal, had then been diagnosed with a serious spinal issue and would undergo a spinal fusion procedure early in the Fall of 2011. He would not play a down for Indianapolis in 2011, and by the winter holidays the club had written off any chance that Manning would return to play professional football. So, on the one hand you had the Colts releasing a QB who, if healthy, would fetch a king’s ransom on the free agent market, and then using their poor 2011 season to lock up the top pick in the NFL draft and select the best QB prospect in many years, perhaps since Manning himself.
Nashville would do all they could to woo Andrew Luck, but the club, known for its defensive posture and very conservative offensive mindset, had trouble competing with an Indianapolis team which had, until Manning’s injury, been a dominant force in the NFL and which still had a lot of pieces in place for another title run. The Knights learned late on a Wednesday night in early February that Luck would indeed sign with the Colts, meaning they had traded one of their key defenders to Oakland and gotten nothing in return.
The Knights would need a plan B, but the perfect plan B was staring them right in the face. Peyton Manning, a legend at the U. of Tennessee, would be a massive get for the Knights. His presence would sell tickets, merch, and publicity for the club. All they had to do was convince him that Nashville was the right fit. They would find themselves competing against no fewer than 7 additional teams, some from the NFL and some as close as their rivals from Memphis. Manning’s filmed workouts seemed to show that he was regaining mobility, that his arm still had plenty of zip, and that his desire to return to the game was fueling him.
The injury would keep the salary demands of Manning within a range that both leagues could work around. Unlike the $90,000,000 contract he had signed pre-injury with the Colts, a new contract, with all the risks of Manning’s health, would be more in the range of $10,000,000 per year. That was a price the Knights were more than willing to pay. They played up the “returning home” theme, the presence of several UT teammates and friends of Peyton on the roster and the staff, and the ability for Manning to take the time he needed to prepare before taking the field.
Just as camps were set to open, and with veteran backup Quincy Carter as the only QB on the Nashville roster, Manning and his agent agreed to terms with the Knights. Manning would report to camp, participate in private workouts for several weeks, and potentially take the field at the midpoint in the season. His contract would ensure a percentage of guaranteed money even if he were to delay his return until 2013, and even a smaller guaranteed payout if it was decided that he would need to retire after all. It was a risk the Knights were willing to take.
Nashville, looking at a minimum of 8 weeks of the season without their newly signed QB, would quickly go out and sign the two best options in free agency to help tide them over along with Carter. They added both Jeff Smoker (released by Michigan) and Sage Rosenfels (a free agent formerly with Texas) with a promise that both would get their chance to compete with Quincy Carter for starts, potentially for 8 weeks, but also potentially for the full 2012 season. Just as quickly, the Knights started cranking out number 16 jerseys, t-shirts with Manning’s likeness, and ticket sale adds touting the return of the conquering hero of Knoxville.
While the honest truth is that we have no idea just how much of Manning we will see in Knights’ purple, gold and silver, including the very real possibility that we will not see any snaps with Manning under center, the reality is that it does not really seem to matter. Knights fans are over the moon with the signing, even if they do acknowledge that Manning’s return may be too late for 2012 to be a strong season. For the rest of the nation, just having Manning in the USFL seems to have heightened excitement and anticipation for the new season. The USFL has Manning fever, which is good for business even if it proves to be a false alarm.
Griffin & Richardson Land in NFL
While the Andrew Luck signing with Indianapolis certainly garnered headlines across the nation, the reality is that the NFL did quite well with their earliest picks. All three of the top 3 NFL selections, Luck with Indy, Robert Griffin with the Redskins, and HB Trent Richardson with the Browns, opted to sign on the bottom line with the fall league, leaving Nashville, Memphis, and Seattle seeking other solutions for those positions. Richardson had been the 3rd player taken in both the NFL and USFL draft, and was a pick that cost Seattle 2 first-rounders (2012 and 2013) to move from 9th to 3rd to select him. His signing with the NFL Browns meant that the Dragons had given up 2 picks for no one, a common fear of GM’s in both leagues as each league tends to obtain barely 50% of the players picked.
Griffin had also been part of that same trade, slipping to 9th in the draft where Memphis picked him with one of the picks they had obtained from Seattle. The Showboats, despite having selected Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett in the 2011 draft were hoping they could appeal to the more athletic Griffin to come to the USFL and their franchise. But, as one might expect, getting picked 9th by one league and 2nd in the other tends to favor the higher selection. Washington played up that option, as well as the higher initial contract value that a 2nd pick in the NFL would have over a 9th pick in the USFL, and Griffin agreed to terms with Washington in short order.
Overall, the exchange between the two leagues was pretty even. Of the NFL’s 32 first round picks, 17 signed with their NFL clubs, a 53% conversion rate. For the USFL, of their 28 first round picks, some of whom were later picks in the NFL, they converted 16 to USFL contracts, a 57% conversion rate. Both leagues could claim victory in the annual player battles. All 3 of the NFL’s Top 3 picks signed with them, and while picks 4-9 all signed with the USFL, their overall numbers were strong. For the USFL, five of the top 7 Open Draft picks signed with their USFL clubs, including #1 pick, WR Justin Blackmon of OK State, who signed with Boston. The USFL also did well overall with their Territorial Draft picks, often the stronger of the two drafts for the spring league. Players with 1st or 2nd round NFL grades did opt to stay with their regional USFL clubs, names like USC OT Matt Kalil for the Express, LB Luke Kuechly from BC to the Boston Cannons, Memphis DT Dontari Poe who doesn’t even have to change apartments after signing with the Showboats, and Notre Dame wideout Michael Floyd, whose fans can make the short drive from South Bend to Chicago to see Floyd with the Machine.
Obviously not every T-Draft pick ended up signing, with Luck being the poster child of that reality, and some teams whiffed pretty big, missing out on 2 or all 3 of their T-Draft picks. Both Denver and Houston missed on all three of their T-Draft picks, including QB Ryan Tannehill, who preferred the option to sign in Miami with the NFL Dolphins over staying in Texas to sit behind Matt Hasselbeck in Houston. Overall, a mixed result, but one that for most teams provided enough enthusiasm and enough infusion of talent to keep the fans engaged and build some enthusiasm for 2012. We will break down the picks that signed and those that got away in our team by team preview in part 2 of this special preseason preview.
Foster, Wallace, and Williams All Jump to USFL
While the draft results were mixed, the NFL-USFL transfer window this February proved to be very much a positive experience for the spring league. In addition to the headline-grabbing signing of Peyton Manning, the USFL also landed several of the top NFL free agents, something of a coup for the league. Defensive End Mario Williams became an immediate target of the Memphis Showboats when Peyton Manning was off the table, and it took no time for Memphis to get ink on paper, signing the edge rusher to a 4-year deal worth nearly $30M.
The Texas Outlaws, who were attempting to replace retired HB T. J. Duckett in earnest, had no options in the T-Draft, were unable to move up to select Trent Richardson in the Open Draft, and found no solutions later in the draft, were finally able to find a suitable replacement in another bruising back, former Houston Oiler Arian Foster. Foster agreed to a 3-year deal with the Outlaws and will likely emerge as the #1 back within 2-3 weeks of the season start, depending on his physical and his ability to pick up the blocking schemes used by the Outlaws.
Finally, controversial and outspoken wide receiver Mike Wallace, let go by the Pittsburgh Steelers despite back-to-back 1,200 yard seasons, found a home in the USFL, in the Pacific Northwest. The Seattle Dragons and head coach Marvin Lewis were willing to take on the often confrontational personality of Wallace in order to bring to the Dragons a bona fide number one receiver. With David Boston retiring this year, a receiver who could draw double coverage and still beat it was the top priority for the Dragons, and that meant overlooking some of the more outlandish elements of Wallace’s time in Pittsburgh.
Other NFL players of note who opted to continue playing into the spring with the USFL include QB’s Bryan Hoyer (Pats to Generals), Charlie Whitehurst (Seahawks to Monarchs), and Chad Henne (Dolphins to Renegades). Along with Arian Foster, halfback Mike Tolbert made the leap, leaving San Diego to join the New Orleans Breakers, and former Redskin Tim Hightower is now another Renegade signing. The only other wideout of note to sign with the USFL was former Falcon Eric Weems, who now joins St. Louis.
Mario Williams was certainly the biggest name on defense to jump leagues, but others like DE Cliff Avril (Lions to Invaders), LBs Dan Conner (Panthers to Skyhawks) and Stephen Tulloch (Lions to Gamblers), corners Brandon Carr (Chiefs to Cannons), Tracy Porter (Saints to Express), and LaDarius Webb (Ravens to Panthers) also made the interleague move. Many expected QB Alex Smith to make the move to the USFL, but with few teams seeking to provide Smith with a guaranteed starting job, he would sign eventually with the Kansas City Chiefs instead.
A lot of new faces, a lot of learning on a quick pace as teams hope to get all of their NFL signings on the field as soon as possible. It varies by position and by player, but we should expect to see a few players on opening day and more each week as we build through the first month of the season. Expect Foster and Tolbert to get carries right away, while the QB’s, receivers, and some defenders could take 2-3 weeks to get up to speed and on the field. All the while, of course, we will continue to monitor Peyton Manning’s progress and his possible appearance in the lineup for Nashville.
Denver and Chicago Make Swap Players on the Cusp of Opening Games
We finish our quick review of the moves and signings of the offseason with one last trade, a trade at the wire, as both teams are already preparing for their opener. Chicago, concerned that they were unable to enhance their safety group through the draft or free agency, opted to make a move to bring in a veteran strong safety. In doing so, they made a major shakeup to their wide receiver group, sending Golden Tate to Denver to acquire David Young. Young is almost certain to be the starter this week at strong safety, but Tate, who finished 2011 with 83 receptions for 930 yards and 6 TDs was a major contributor to the Machine offense. Of course Chicago did draft and sign Malcolm Floyd from Notre Dame, and Floyd’s strong preseason may just have given them the confidence to let Tate go. For the Gold, acquiring Tate gives them a solid second option after veteran Peerless Price. It also means that they can shift James Hardy to more of a floating position, both inside and outside, and get more snaps for promising young players like Leonard Hankerson.
Is Denver and Chicago’s trade the last of the season? For now perhaps, but we always see teams make moves between weeks 5-10 as their preseason optimism gets traded for the harsh reality of the season. For now, however, we believe the roster are set and the teams know who they are, at least who they think they are. All illusions are dispelled when pads hit pads in opening weekend.
T-Draft Winners & Losers
The trend over the past several years has been for USFL squads to be more cautious, and equally more successful, with their Territorial Picks than with the Open Draft. Perhaps it is the built-in advantage that comes with keeping players near their college markets, a situation that allows players, particularly high profile players, to add to their financial windfall by cashing in on their local popularity through advertising and spokesperson deals in a way that is not as possible when a player from Cal ends up in Buffalo, or a Longhorn plays for the Bears. This benefits mid-round picks as well as the big name players and has often produced good return on investment for the USFL clubs, who frequently will land 2 or all 3 T-Draft picks while only hitting on 40% or fewer of their Open Draft picks. So, with this in mind, were there clear winners and losers in this year’s T-Draft. Yes. Some due to the talent pool available, and others due to their ability to sign players. Here is our list of the 3 biggest winners from the T-Draft as well as the three biggest losers.
WINNER—BOSTON
The Cannons landed 2 of their three picks, signing WR Nick Toon of Wisconsin, missing on fellow Badger, punter Brad Nortman, but landing the big fish, Boston College ILB Luke Kuechley. A top-10 pick by the NFL Panthers, Kuechley saw the value of staying in Boston, where his local notoriety was already well established, and he essentially walks into the MLB position for the Cannons, meaning immediate minutes and a fast track to being the defense’s play caller and even team captain. For Boston they get one of the best LB prospects to come out in recent years and an instant face for a franchise struggling with perception and with a 1-win season behind them.
LOSER—BIRMINGHAM
The Stallions had such a deep pool of talent to choose from, just from Alabama alone, with Trent Richardson, Mark Barron, Dre Kirkpatrick, Don’t’a Hightower, and Courtney Upshaw all considered first or second round talent. They opted to select only the two Bama linebackers, Hightower and Upshaw, and while others like Barron and Kirkpatrick would go on to sign with the USFL clubs that picked them in the Open Draft, both Hightower (New England) and Upshaw (Baltimoe) opted to sign with the NFL club that picked them. That is a major whiff. Add to that the indignity of midround pick, OT Matt McCants of UAB, signing with the NY Giants instead of staying in Birmingham with the Stallions, and you have an embarrassing draft form a front office that hit big in 2011 with Cam Newton coming to the team.
WINNER—MICHIGAN
The Panthers may have felt that the crop of draftees from the Wolverine, Spartan, and Chippewa programs this year was not the deepest, they certainly found talent they liked, and talent that wanted to stay at home in Detroit. Michigan not only signed all three T-Draft picks—QB Kirk Cousins, DT Jerel Worthy, and WR B. J. Cunningham, but also nabbed a 4th in Center David Molk of Michigan late in the Open Draft. Now, these were not all early round picks, so you have to temper the excitement, but anytime you can bring in a QB from the T-Draft, and particularly one who seems well suited to mentor under Brian Griese, and also nab 3 other players for depth, you have fulfilled the promise of the Territorial Draft concept.
LOSER—LAS VEGAS
We have to consider Las Vegas one of the biggest losers for this year’s T-Draft. Not only did they have a really bad pool coming out of Utah, BYU, and UNLV, but they managed not to sign those players they did select. Honestly, though, we don’t think the Thunder are too upset, as even the top rated player in their pool, Utah guard Tony Bergstrom, was not considered a blue chip impact player. Essentially, Las Vegas knew they drew a bad hand from the onset and had to strategize around that fact.
WINNER—TAMPA BAY
The Bandits only landed 2 of the 3 players selected, but both of their signees were early round picks in WR Alshon Jeffery and LB Nigel Bradham. Both are positions of need after the retirements of Chris Doering and Zeke Moreno (who was a free agent), so both are positions of need. Now, Tampa Bay did double down at WR by signing Santonio Holmes, but having a promising rookie who can learn from Joey Galloway’s example may be the best possible result for the Bandits.
LOSER—NEW JERSEY
The Generals managed to sign one of three picks, which is still better than some teams (Denver & Houston), who did not land a single one, but what hurts for New Jersey is that both of their top tier choices, DE Chandler Jones and WR Ryan Broyles, opted to join the NFL, Chandler with the Patriots and Broyles with the Lions. Admitedly, the connection between Oklahoma and New Jersey is not a strong one, with the school in the Generals’ Territorial group only due to the lack of top tier programs in the greater NY/NJ area. So the lure for a Sooner of playing in New Jersey is not as great as it is with Florida, California, or Texas teams and players. New Jersey did sign Rutgers WR Mohamed Sanu, and he is a solid mid-round product, but Jones in particular was the local star that the Generals most coveted, a Syracuse product with outstanding pass rushing skills, so missing out on him was a big hit.
We will comment on the rest of the draft when we do our team-by-team preview, outlining the new faces on each team’s roster and where we see the most potential impact.
FIVE BIG STORIES TO FOLLOW AS WE HEAD INTO THE 2012 SEASON
While every team will have their storylines, whether it is surprise breakout players, slumps and obstacles, injury woes, or player quarrels with coaching staffs, but there are some stories we already know we are going to be following through the year. Here is our list of the Top 5 stories to keep checking in on.
5) Does Dallas Make a Deal?
The self-designated goal for the Destination Dallas investor group was to have a USFL franchise playing in the refurbished Cotton Bowl in 2013. The stadium is well on its way to being prepped, but time is running out for the investors to make a deal and get league approval to relocate a franchise to the DFW area. They have been meeting during the offseason with several teams, and most believe that they have serious interest from the ownership groups in Nashville, Boston and Chicago. As we have already reported, the ease of approval for a sale and relocation is very much in the air with all three cities, but Chicago would be the toughest to get approved. We fully expect a deal to be cut at some time during the next few months, at least between the investors and one of the teams, but then the long process of getting league approval will begin. If it occurs during the season, will it even be reported, because clearly an announcement of purchase and a plan to relocate would make whichever team is sold a lame duck for the season, and that will absolutely produce hostility, protests, and a major collapse of attendance for this season. It will be a black eye on a season that has a lot of promise, but if Destination Dallas is serious about their timeline, a sale will have to happen soon.
4) Which 2011 Non-Playoff Team is Ready to Make a Run?
Every year we have 12 clubs that make the postseason and 16 that do not. And every year who those teams are changes. Houston won the title in 2010 but was AWOL in 2011, while Texas ascended to win the first division title in franchise history. Who will be the risers this year? Which teams might be ready to break loose and put together a playoff season, perhaps even a division winning or title-winning season? We picked 4 teams we think are on the cusp and could make the final push from also-ran to playoff contender.
ST. LOUIS
The Skyhawks had a very strong 2nd half to the season in 2011, winning 5 of their last 7 games and finishing with a franchise best 8=8 record, the first time since the club joined the league in 2006 that it did not have a losing record. Now, admittedly, they play in a very tough division and will have to find a way to leapfrog clubs like Michigan and Chicago to get close to the Maulers, who dominated the Central last year, but they are absolutely on the right path. We love the additions of LB Dan Conner and WR Eric Weems from the NFL, the signing of Nate Washington and guard Paul Zakauskas in free agency, and the addition of DE Olivier Vernon in the draft. This is a Skyhawks team that is getting enough pieces to compete with anyone.
BIRMINGHAM
The Stallions started 2011 very strong, but slid back over the course of Cam Newton’s rookie year, but they clearly are looking like a competitor in a division that is looking pretty down overall. With Nashville likely to start a career backup at QB for at least half to the season, if not the entire season, and with New Orleans and Memphis still very big question marks, the division could be Birmingham’s this year. The Stallions bombed in the T-Draft, but we do like the addition of LT Riley Reiff, who has already earned the starting gig protecting Newton’s blind side. If Newton takes a step up in his 2nd year, he will possibly be the best QB in the division (Drew Brees would argue this), but he could also be on the best team in the division.
ORLANDO
The Renegades have been so close, just missing the playoffs in both 2010 and 2011. They have the most dominant defensive player in the league, and with a full year under his belt in Coach Thomas’s system, Eli Manning could be primed for a strong year. Orlando was very active this offseason, signing NFL QB Chad Henne to back up Manning, adding another NFL vet, HB Tim Hightower to help spell Knowshon Moreno, and then bringing in a top 20 prospect in U. of Miami LB Sean Spence in the T-Draft. We are still a bit mystified why Orlando went after Russell Wilson in the draft, but the rookie QB will now have a chance to grow into the position behind Manning as well. The key to the Renegades this year will be cohesiveness. It cannot be all Calais Campbell on defense. He needs support elsewhere on the D. The same is true for Manning on offense. He needs his receivers and his line to be there too. The Renegades are close, but they will need to play together to stay in range of the defending champion Bandits.
SEATTLE
Another club that has been flirting with .500 for a while now. They have had 7 wins in all three of the past three seasons. Meanwhile other clubs have risen and fallen around them. Will the addition of NFL gadfly Mike Wallace help them get over the hump or drag them down? Will replacing LaDell Betts with rookie Robert Turbin help the run game develop an inside-outside game? Will the defense come together with the additions of Ike Reese and Alan Branch? A lot of ifs, but like Birmingham, this is a division with a lot of equity, and while LA and Oakland might be favored to take the title, Seattle is absolutely in the mix this year.
3) Which Players are Ready to Break Out in a Big Way?
The cliché about player development is that it is season three that makes or breaks a player. Sure, there are some who immediately hit the ground running and make a huge impact as rookies, while others may never develop their game to match their hype in the draft. But typically by year three if a player has not broken out they are either in a bad fit with their current team, or their talent was overhyped in college. As we look at the 2010 draft we see some names for whom 2012 could be a year to make a splash, or could be a year that sinks them. Here is our list of 6 players to watch this year in hopes of a breakout season.
WR Aurelious Benn (OHI)
To say that Benn’s performance in his first two years in Chicago has been a tease is about as accurate as you can get. His 112 receptions and 1095 yards are decent 2nd or 3rd receiver numbers, but not the kind of production you expect of a 1st round talent. Benn has struggled to stay ahead of Golden Tate on the Chicago roster, and now with Tate off to Denver it will fall on Benn to step up and become a focal point of the offense. Donald Driver is not getting any younger and the Machine need a 2nd receiver to pick up the baton.
WR Golden Tate (DEN)
Speaking of Tate, the newest member of the Denver Gold has a golden opportunity (sorry for the pun) to break out this year. Tate had a huge step up last year, from 24 receptions in 2010 to 83 in 2011, outpacing Benn and securing more snaps each week. He now moves on to a Denver squad that absolutely needs a receiver opposite Peerless Price and could very soon need Tate to move into the top slot on the depth chart. He has a solid QB in Matt Leinart, a very good offensie line to protect the QB and allow for deeper routes, and a clean slate to start with as a member of the Gold. The time is now if Tate is going to break out.
DE Jason Pierre-Paul (TBY)
JPP won a title with the Bandits last year but fans in Tampa Bay are still hoping for a breakout season individually. Pierre-Paul did not start a game in 2010, and recorded no sacks. Last year he was the starter in 14 of 16 regular season games and all through the playoffs. In that span he recorded 5 sacks. That is a number that everyone in Banditland wants to see doubled or tripled this year. JPP has the talent, we see it on individual plays, but we need to see it every play. If he can increase his motor, he has the potential to be a 10 or 15 sack contributor to the Bandits, which would go a long way towards the club returning to defend their title this July.
DT Ndamukong Suh (DEN)
Suh came out of college with a huge reputation as a disruptive force of nature. In two years with the Denver Gold we just have not seen that. He improved on his rookie numbers in 2011, with 48 tackles (only 5 for a loss) and 4 sacks, but what Gold fans were expecting were more like Jerome Brown numbers. They want to see Suh in the backfield making opponents fear calling inside runs. They want to see him bursting through to get to the QB right up the middle. Suh has been solid, but not spectacular, and the expectations were so high coming out of college that only spectacular will satisfy Gold fans.
QB Tim Tebow (JAX)
Tim Tebow arrived in Jacksonville from just down the road in Gainesville with a huge following, a fervent fanbase, and a lot of expectations. His first year saw him start 11 games and have pretty solid numbers with a 7:4 TD:Int ratio (14:8 in actual numbers) and over 2,000 yards. In 2011 he bumped up his yardage to 3,802, the highest from a Bulls QB in a long time, but we also saw him throw 19 picks to only 18 touchdowns. That has to have fans concerned, even if they won’t admit it. Tebow needs this to be a breakout season. We mean 3,500 yards, at least a 2:1 TD:INT ratio and a rating over 90. Failing that, the Tebowmania may quickly turn to Tebowphobia.
2) Will Chad Johnson or Mike Wallace Explode in a Good Way or a Bad Way?
There is no doubt that both Johnson and Wallace are extremely talented. Johnson has had 11 consecutive 1,000 yard seasons in both Ohio and Boston, but he has also been quick to attack his QB and his coaches when he is not seeing enough of the ball or the team is not winning. He now finds himself in a new situation with a new QB (Jake Plummer) and a coach who loves to throw the ball. Can this be a win-win for the Thunder and for Johnson? And if it is not, will Johnson explode once again? That is a sideshow we expect to be tuning in for.
Very similarly, Mike Wallace has put up good numbers in the NFL, but his off-field and media antics quickly soured the more traditional Steeler organization on the young receiver. He now finds himself in Seattle, with a veteran QB, and a veteran coach. The problem is that the coach is starting the year on the hotseat after 3 straight 7-win seasons and the QB may be nearing retirement. Is Wallace really in a good position for immediate success and a positive relationship with his team, coach, QB, and fanbase? Or is he on a fast track to becoming a nuisance once again?
1) Will We See Peyton Manning in Nashville This Season?
You knew this had to be our top story, right? Even after games begin and the season gets under way, everyone will still be tuning in to Manning’s workouts, his practices with the Knights, and his press comments. Knight fans, USFL fans, and football fans in general are rooting for Manning to play again, and, at least for the Knight Nation, for him to be able to do so at a high level and as soon as possible. The first half of the Knights’ season could be a tough go, but fans will still be excited if they see progress week to week on Manning’s status and ability to add more and more football to his routines. He is a superstar, we know that, and if he can add some of that star power to Nashville, a team that has lacked a true national face of the franchise since moving from LA to St. Louis and then Music City, then this could well be the start of something special for the Knights. And all this as fans freak out about the club and its interest from the Dallas group. A perfect storm of tensions, opportunity and star power. That is a story we will follow all year long.
Hopefully the Knights will finally get over the hump