January 22, 2012
To say it has been an eventful 3 months since we last joined you with our USFL offseason update would be a major understatement. We have had signings, trades, and, of course, a wild Collegiate Draft. As teams were able to swap Territorial Draft picks for the first time in several years, there was a lot of horse trading on all parts. We will break it down for you, starting with our 3 big stories of the winter, then take a detailed look at the 2012 drafts (Territorial and Open) and finish up with a look at the top 15 NFL players currently not under contract. Just as minicamps have opened, with the main training camps opening in just about a week, it is all coming together.
Nashville Sends Terrell Suggs to Oakland for Right to Pick Andrew Luck
We all saw it coming, the cutting of Jay Cutler, the lack of potential replacements within free agency. It all tied together. And, in early November it all came together. Cutler had signed with the NFL Bears during the transfer window, so there was no going back. The Nashville Knights had to have a plan for a new option at QB or risk going into the season with only Quincy Carter as a veteran QB on the roster. Yes, they could sign a free agent from the USFL pool, but with the top available QBs being backup options like Tony Banks or Dennis Dixon, they would not find a day one starter in that pool. So, from the point that the Knights opted to let the disgruntled Cutler walk, they were clearly targeting a second option, and it was pretty clear that the best option was to make a deal with Oakland to obtain the Invaders’ first T-Draft pick and use that pick to select Stanford’s All-American QB Andrew Luck.
And that is exactly what happened back in November. As expected, Oakland, wary of the 50% NFL signing rate in the rookie drafts nearly every year, wanted signed and sealed commodities. They wanted a guaranteed top flight player in return for the shot at Andrew Luck. Based on our reporting we know that the Knights initially approached them with a pick for pick deal, but that was inadequate. What they would end up settling on was a combination deal that sent Oakland’s T-draft pick to the Knights and in return Oakland would obtain not only the Knights’ 1st rounder in the open draft, but also veteran LB and edge rusher Terrell Suggs. Suggs, who came to the Knights in 2009, had his best career year in 2011, with 6 sacks and 106 tackles. He will immediately upgrade the Invader defense, lined up alongside Nick Koutavides and Joe Odom.
And while Nashville did just as expected and used their expensive pick on Andrew Luck, beginning negotiations immediately upon selection, Oakland now found themselves with 2 first round picks within a 4-pick span. They would use their own pick (number 18 in the round) on Stanford guard David DeCastro, a player they likely would have chosen in the T-Draft had they kept their first pick. With Nashville’s pick, only 2 later, they doubled up, adding yet more linebacker help with the selection of Utah State LB Bobby Wagner. While at present all three picks (the two Oakland selections and Luck for Nashville) remain unsigned and awaiting their NFL draft selection, there is hope in both camps that this year’s draft will prove monumental in their club’s futures.
Chicago Finds Their Man... In New Jersey?
The Chicago Machine waited out the NFL and College seasons before settling on a head coach, and still managed to surprise us. This week Chicago named Rutgers Head Coach Greg Schiano as the newest leader of the Machine franchise. Schiano, who served as the head coach at Rutgers from 2001-2011, built up the program from a Big East also ran into a 6 time bowl participant with a 5-1 recod in those bowls. He had previously served as a DB coach in the NFL with Chicago and at both Penn State and Miami.
While Schiano certainly has enough of a career to warrant becoming a pro coach, he is still a surprising pick, both because he is not known for innovative offensive design, nor for developing top tier talent. Yes, his Rutgers teams have had better results, and several player, like HB Ray Rice, have moved on to the pro ranks, Schiano is more known as a players' coach and a good motivator than as an innovator on the field, something the Machine had previously expressed interest in. Schiano will take over a Machine club that fell to 8-8 in 2011 after a run that saw them make the playoffs in 9 of the prior 10 seasons with Marty Mornhinweg at the helm. The team has a solid QB in Brady Quinn, and one of the league's most outstanding defenders in MLB Brian Urlacher.
Seattle Trades Up to Select HB Trent Richardson
The November trade between Oakland and Nashville was the biggest of the offseason until the week of the draft. We saw a few other less noteworthy trades, such as New Orleans sending FS Earl Thomas to Boston for OT Joseph Bragg and a draft pick, or guard Mike McGlynn sent from Michigan to Philadelphia for CB Drayton Florence, but it was not until Draft Week that we saw bigger moves.
Oddly, while we anticipated more moves within the T-Draft as players tried to snag those attending one of the 84 protected schools (3 each for all 28 USFL franchises), what we saw instead were moves to adjust draft position in the open draft. The biggest moves occurred in the 24 hours leading up to and during the Open Draft itself. Here are the moves that impacted the first round alone:
Seattle sent their 1st this year and next year to Memphis to move up from pick 9 to pick 3. We all suspected what that was about and it was exactly what we thought, with Seattle using the 3rd pick on Alabama HB Trent Richardson. Memphis, dropping down, would select Baylor QB Robert Griffin III of Baylor, who was not protected by the Texas Outlaws, since they have reigning MVP Joe Flacco a the position.
Charlotte had wanted to move up to the Top 10, but were unable to find a trading partner, so they settled for the 11th pick, making a move with Denver to jump up from 19th to 11th. That move allowed them to snag the QB they had hoped to find, OK State’s Brandon Wheedon. Wheedon is expected to sit behind Delhomme this year, but could see action if the veteran struggles.
In trade for their 11 pick, Denver dropped down to 19, but also picked up a 2nd round pick in the 2013 draft. The Gold would not stand pat with their new pick, turning right around and packaging that 19 pick with a late rounder to make a deal with Michigan, moving ahead of Oakland and selecting CB Dre Kirkpatrick out of Alabama. Michigan, moving down only 2 spots and confident that Oakland was not looking for a HB, were able to still get their target, Oregon HB LaMichael James.
The end of the first round also saw two deals as both Philadelphia and New Jersey made deals to move into the later part of the round to snag a second 1st round talent. Philadelphia sent their 2nd and 3rd round picks to Arizona to get pick 23 in the first round, selecting OG Kevin Zeitler of Wisconsin. They would also add Cal OT Mitchell Schwartz 3 picks later with the 26th selection as they hope to build up a young and athletic O-line. New Jersey, who had chosen CB Stephon Gilmore with the #8 pick in the draft, saw someone they liked still on the board, and made the deal with Tampa Bay to get the final pick of the round, sending the Bandits their #8 pick in the 2nd round as well as a 4th rounder so that they could select safety Tavon Wilson of Illinois. It seems secondary is the prime concern for former DB and current Generals’ head coach Herm Edwards.
There were also the usual set of mid-round swaps throughout the day, and even a player swap as Orlando sent WR Leonard Hankerson and a 6th rounder to Denver for OT Chris Terry, but the big news, as usual was in the first round. And, honestly, the bigger news has yet to be written as most players, with just a handful of exceptions, are waiting for this week’s NFL Draft and negotiations with both leagues before settling on a deal. We will all have to wait, as we have gotten accustomed to doing, until camps open to find out which rookies will be joining the USFL and which will hold off and wait until next Fall to see the field again.
Could Peyton Manning be Headed to the USFL?
That has been the speculation ever since Indianapolis announced that they would be releasing Manning after a neck injury cost him the entirety of the 2011 NFL season. Manning, who had just signed a 5-year, $90 million contract with the NFL Colts, underwent spinal fusion surgery in August, was put on IR for the year in September, and throughout the season was a topic of hot debate. With Colts owner Jim Irsay convinced that Manning would never step on a field again, the Colts released Manning from their roster in mid-December, just around the time that Manning started throwing footballs again for the first time since his surgery. Progress in the short span since then has been tentative, but Manning himself has stated that it is his intention to return to play in 2012.
So, what does this mean for the USFL? Well, the obvious first thing is that USFL clubs would have to wait until mid-February to even explore the option of signing Manning. They would, of course, want to get as much information about his recovery and his potential future as an athlete before making any moves, and, they would likely be up against some competition from any number of NFL teams who would jump at a healthy Manning, but who, like them, are concerned that Manning is simply not going to be able to return. The other factor for a USFL club is one of timing. The earliest that Manning could even possibly take the field as a pro football player would be in late May or early June, even if every single step of his recovery went perfectly. That means that a team is looking at Week 9 or later as the earliest possible start. That is certainly a concern for most teams, as Manning would likely be a huge chunk out of their salary cap even if he were to take a drop in pay from the contract he signed with the Colts pre-surgery.
Does that mean no USFL club would take the chance? Hardly. Manning is a generational talent and a huge boost for the marketing arm of any club. And while this offseason we see very few clubs who are desperate for a change at QB, there are certainly many who would have interest in Manning. While it would be a cap challenge for a club like Charlotte, Houston, or Las Vegas to have Manning on the roster while also having starters like Delhomme, Hasselbeck, and Plummer in games, the potential to swap in Manning for 2013 may just be enough to motivate them. Then you have clubs like LA, Portland, Memphis, or St. Louis, who have QBs in place, but would certainly see Manning as an upgrade if he were healthy. Finally, we have to consider both Nashville and Memphis seriously. There is a very good chance that Nashville will whiff on signing Andrew Luck and that would make them very desperate indeed to sign a veteran like Manning. Memphis is looking at Ryan Mallett after a pretty bad year, bad enough to draft Robert Griffin III this year, but if Manning is available, they would certainly consider the chance to bring a local hero to the squad. And that is the extra bonus for both the Showboats and Knights, the chance to bring one of the most celebrated Tennessee Volunteers to a Tennessee-based USFL club would be a marketing coup, even if Manning spends the entire season on the bench recovering and prepping for 2013.
The possibilities are fascinating, the risks very real, and the water cooler talk all but endless as the Manning saga rages in the fanbases of 60 clubs across two leagues.
Beyond the Manning speculation, there was certainly plenty of Free Agent news this Winter, as well as the prospect of a new round of NFL signings in less than a month. For now the NFL front is quiet, though we will take a look at the top free agents likely to be available in February. But before we do that, we should recap some of the winter signings from within the USFL pool as several very talented players changed uniforms between our last report and this one.
Pass defenders and QB protectors were all the rage over the past month as we saw DBs and guards as the two hottest positions for change. Since October we have seen several in both areas find new homes, while Portland pulled off the rare post-deadline resigning when they retained the services of SS Clifton Black. Among those moving were cornerbacks Chris Canty (MGN to HOU), Jimmy Williams (ARZ to WSH) and Brandon Flowers (WSH to ARZ), essentially producing a “trade” of CB’s between the Feds and Wranglers. We also saw an All-USFL safety cash in as Pittsburgh’s Scott Shields took the money and ran, to the tune of nearly $20M over 4 years to join the New Jersey Generals, where Herm Edwards is just stocking up on defensive backs.
Among the guards that swapped home addresses we saw Jeb Terry (NSH to SEA), Paul Zakauskas (NOR to STL), and Solomon Page (TEX to LA) all find new homes. There are still several quality options at guard yet to sign, including veterans Bobbie Williams (ATL), Vince Manuwai (SEA), and Taylor Whitley (CHI).
Others making a move in the doldrums of winter include TE Anthony Becht, who leaves behind 12 seasons in New Jersey, signing with the Breakers in New Orleans. HB Ladell Betts leaves Seattle to join his 5th USFL club, the Atlanta Fire. DT DeMarcus Tyler will leave Boston for a division rival in Philadelphia, while two edge rushers also move on, with Eddie Freeman leaving St. Louis for Portland and Antwan Odom trading Portland brown for Baltimore blue. Kicker David Green will compete for the job in Ohio after signing with the Glory, while the latest move, that of HB Rashard Jennings, has the former Thunder backup to Marshawn Lynch hoping for more opportunities to carry the ball as a member of the Ohio Glory.
While the pool of available USFL free agents is shrinking, there still remain several savvy veterans and quality depth players yet to sign as we move towards camps. Among the most noteworthy we find FB Shawn Bryson (BIR), WR Andre Davis (POR), C Aaron Graham (TEX), CB Dereck Combs (JAX), and DE Corey Sears (LA). For teams hoping to get some depth at QB there are some veteran backups still out there, though none who are likely to compete for a starting job. Among those still unsigned we find Tony Banks, Dennis Dickson, Dave Dickerson, and Tee Martin. For those hoping to bolster their run game, they can still get some solid carries from players like Brandon Jacobs, Antonio Pittman, or Kerry Joseph. Among receivers, the best remaining on the board is Andre Davis, but teams could also take a look at Arnold Brown, Matthew Slater or Joey Jamison. Finally, among defenders, the surprising player still out there is DT Kimo Von Oelhoffen, who had a great season with Arizona. He and Damione Lewis are the best DT’s still unsigned, while on the edge there is still Corey Sears, Gary Stills, and Quintin Moses.
Add to this group a potential pool of NFL players who stick out their league’s free agency period in hopes of using the USFL-NFL transfer window as leverage, so we are not done yet with free agents by a longshot.
As we look back at the USFL Draft, we recognize that, as always, selection is only the first step. How the signing period turns out for the league will be our focus moving forward. As soon as the NFL Draft is complete, the agents for all the top talent will begin playing one offer against another, one team against another, as the NFL and USFL both attempt to get the better of the other. Nashville eagerly waits to get a solid response from Andrew Luck’s agent while we all await to see if the Colts, having released Peyton Manning, use their first overall pick on the Stanford product. But that is just the first of over 250 players likely to be selected by teams in both leagues and eager to use that reality to leverage better deals. So, as we review each USFL team’s picks, let’s keep the excitement level under control, because if the past 29 drafts have shown us anything, it is that our favorite USFL club will be lucky to sign half of the players whose names were called out during the USFL’s Territorial and Open Collegiate Drafts. We will review the draft as we previewed it, with the teams in order of their originally assigned 1st round pick.
BOSTON CANNONS
Territorial Draft Notes: Boston did not disappoint, locking up Luke Kuechley, the hard-hitting BC linebacker with their first pick. They also hope they can sign Wisconsin WR Nick Toon, who they chose with their 2nd pick.
Open Draft 1st Round: Wideout remained a focal point in the Open Draft as Boston used the 1st overall pick on the best “unprotected” player available in their eyes, WR Justin Blackmon from Oklahoma State. Clearly Coach Fox is looking to provide Jake Locker with more weapons and more of a chance to develop in his sophomore year.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Here is one we did not see coming. Out of the U. of Regina, that’s right, as in Regina, Canada, the Cannons selected DT Akiem Hicks. Of course there is more to the story. Hicks was in Canada to begin with because of issues with his signing out of HS by LSU, issues of illegal recruitment that meant he could not play in any U.S. university. So, he became a big fish in a very small pond in Saskatchewan but now has a chance to catch on back in the good ole’ USA.
JACKSONVILLE BULLS
Territorial Draft Notes: The Bulls focused on defense with their T-Draft, first selecting DE Andre Branch, then CB Coty Sensabaugh, both of Clemson. With their 3rd pick they went after a possible special teams contributor and backup in HB Chris Rainey of Florida.
Open Draft 1st Round: With the 2nd pick in the Open Draft, Jacksonville again went defense, selecting Mississippi State DT Fletcher Cox, who they hope can shore up the middle of the line and help get their edge rushers into single blocks.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: The Bulls have clearly not been happy with the production of C. J. Spiller as a primary back, so the selection of U. of Miami HB Lamar Miller in the 2nd round is hardly a surprise. Miller is a bigger, more physical back who is better suited for those 1st and 2nd down inside runs that the Bulls like.
MEMPHIIS SHOWBOATS
Territorial Draft Notes: Not great depth for Memphis in the T-Draft, but the 1st pick was a clear one, with the Showboats hoping to land a local star in U. of Memphis DT Dontari Poe. Poe would be a force in the middle for the ‘Boats. They doubled up on defense with DE Jake Bequette of Arkansas their next pick, finishing with WR Jarius Wright from the 3 graduating Razorback receivers this year.
Open Draft 1st Round: The Showboats must have known something we didn’t. We all expected them to select Robert Griffin III with the draft’s third pick, but they shrewdly traded down to number 9 with Seattle and still were able to land Griffin as their pick. Now, will the Baylor star sign with the Showboats, or will he be a Top 5 pick in the NFL and likely get a bigger paycheck out of it?
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Delaware OG Gino Gradkowski may need some time to develop his footwork after playing in the FCS, but he is a big physical guy, and with a name that just screams O-line.
PORTLAND STAGS
Territorial Draft Notes: We are a bit surprised that Portland did not protect either Boise State star, DE Shea McClellin or HB Doug Martin, instead using the T-Draft for lower-rated “depth” players like DE Tyrone Crawford of Oregon State, LB Josh Kaddu of Oregon, and OT Nate Potter from the Broncos.
Open Draft 1st Round: Portland had several offers for their pick but did not budge. They selected Alabama DE Michael Brockers at number 4, and are hoping he can be the edge rusher they have always lacked on their defense.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: We love the pick of App State WR Brian Quick by the Stags. Their WR group has always lacked pure straight line speed and, just like his dad, Quick can provide that.
NEW ORLEANS BREAKERS
Territorial Draft Notes: As usual LSU is the prime pipeline for the Breakers. They selected WR Rueben Randle first, then doubled up with safety Brandon Taylor as their 2nd pick. Tulane LB Dezman Moses rounds out a pretty good group, if they can sign them all.
Open Draft 1st Round: We call this pick the first that is a bit of a stretch. New Orleans went with the best TE in the draft, Coby Fleener of Stanford, but could have very likely made a deal with Charlotte, who was looking to jump into the Top 10, and still gotten Fleener at 19. But, when you love a player, you go get that player, at least that is the theory.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: We just don’t see much worth commenting on in the later rounds. A couple of mid-round linebackers, and a little-known HB out of North Texas to end the draft. Honestly, we see New Orleans’s front office as having dropped the ball overall in the Open Draft.
OHIO GLORY
Territorial Draft Notes: With Ohio State not providing the usual cornucopia of top talent, this was an odd T-Draft for the Glory. They used their 1st pick on HB Isaiah Pead from Cincinnati, traded away pick 2 and then used pick 3 on safety Nate Ebner, a Buckeye, but not a top tier prospect.
Open Draft 1st Round: Hoping to upgrade their pass rush under defensive-minded coach Bart Andrus, the Glory went with West Virginia DE Bruce Irvin with their first pick. If he signs, he will likely slot into a starting position, or at least a rotation, on day one.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Our favorite pick is a bit of an odd one, Georgia kicker Blair Walsh. Sure, a kicker in the draft is always a bit of a headscratcher, but Walsh has been all but automatic in Athens, and should be a solid option for the Glory to consistently provide both deep kickoffs and plenty of 3-pointers.
HOUSTON GAMBLERS
Territorial Draft Notes: The Gamblers made it no secret that they were going to select Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill in the T-Draft. He needs more seasoning, but that is perfect as the Gamblers hope to slowly transition from Matt Hasselbeck over the next few years. Houston also selected TAMU kicker Randy Bullock and HB Cyrus Gray, making it a full trifecta for the Aggies.
Open Draft 1st Round: Losing Ronde Barber to retirement made this a pretty logical pick, with Houston going after North Alabama CB Janoris Jenkins. There will be a sharp learning curve from an HBCU to the USFL, but Jenkins is a very fast, very talented, and technically sound corner.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: As is often the strategy to cope with NFL signing of USFL picks, Houston doubled down at corner with their 3rd round pick of Coastal Carolina’s Josh Norman. Norman is a very athletic, ball hawking cornerback, but will need to play with more discipline.
NEW JERSEY GENERALS
Territorial Draft Notes: That OU connection just keeps paying off as New Jersey hope to sign OU standouts, DE Chandler Jones and WR Ryan Broyles. They doubled down at receiver with their 3rd pick, a tall, possession receiver in Rutgers’ Mohamed Sanu.
Open Draft 1st Round: New Jersey moved up to get a 2nd pick in the 1st round, getting back in with Tampa Bay’s final pick. That means they were able to select 2 of their top 30 prospects. With pick 8 they went DB (a theme for Coach Herm Edwards this year) with South Carolina’s Stephon Gilmore, then at 28 they took safety Tavon Wilson of Illinois, hoping to build a young and athletic secondary group.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: The Generals did not pick OU tackle Donald Stephenson with their T-Draft picks, but returned to him in the 4th round of the Open Draft, hoping to add more Sooner beef to the line.
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SEATTLE DRAGONS
Territorial Draft Notes: Seattle traded away a T-draft pick to Ohio in a swap of number 2’s after picking Montana safety Trumaine Johnson with their first pick. They then returned to the T-Draft in round 3 with a possible kick/punt returner in Washington WR Jermaine Kearse. With their pick from Ohio they went with TE Adrien Robinson from Cincy.
Open Draft 1st Round: The Dragons continued to wheel and deal in the Open Draft, sending two first round picks (2012 and 20130 to Memphis to move up to the 3rd overall pick, where Alabama HB Trent Richardson was ready and waiting.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Seattle also did the “Double Down” strategy, not wanting to come away from the draft without a big back to pair with Jahvid Best. They selected Utah State’s Robert Turbin in the 4th, who is very much in the mold of the departed Ladell Betts, a pounder who can do the inside work to free up Best outside.
BIRMINGHAM STALLIONS
Territorial Draft Notes: With the Stallions it is almost always which Crimson Tide and Tiger players they will choose to let go. This year that included a lot of 1st round talent, including Richardson, safety Mark Barron, and CB Dre Kirkpatrick. In their stead, Birmingham protected LB Dont’a Hightower, LB Courtney Upshaw, and OT Matt McCants from UAB.
Open Draft 1st Round: Birmingham wants to protect Cam Newton’s blind side and they may have found their man in Iowa LT Riley Reiff, big and technically sound, Reiff could slot in on day one if he signs with the Stallions.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Fullback Rhett Ellison may not get a lot of carries, and won’t be a big part of the passing game, but the USC product knows how to run block, and that will be a huge addition for the Stallions and HB Joseph Addai.
DENVER GOLD
Territorial Draft Notes: A pretty modest output from Colorado, CO State, and Nebraska this year. Denver opted to go with LB Lavonte David, DE Jared Crick (both Huskers) and Colorado WR Toney Clemons, but honestly, none of these are season 1 starters.
Open Draft 1st Round: With Reiff off the board, Denver opted to accept the trade offer from Charlotte and move down from 11 to 19. They then got excited to see CB Dre Kirkpatrick still there at pick 16, so they made a deal with Michigan to move past Oakland and snag Kirkpatrick at 17.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Denver needed a strong-legged kicker and opted to take the first one off the board, pretty early as a 5th rounder. Missouri Western may not be a familiar name to football fans, but we expect that with the altitude-aided wind in Denver, kicker Greg Zuerlein could become a household name for Gold fans.
ATLANTA FIRE
Territorial Draft Notes: The Fire jumped at the chance to select UGA tackle Cordy Glenn with their first pick. It is a position of need and Glenn is a first round talent. They then went with CB Brandon Boykin, another Bulldog with their 2nd pick, and finished up the UGA trifecta with guard Justin Anderson.
Open Draft 1st Round: Atlanta went for defense with the 12th overall pick, selecting DE Whitney Mercilus from Illinois. We like Mercilus as a speed rusher, but worry he is not bulky enough to be much help against the run.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: HB Michael Smith is not likely to start this year, but the Utah State product could see a mix of special teams assignments and backup HB duties as Atlanta tries to keep Darren McFadden from wearing down.
CHICAGO MACHINE
Territorial Draft Notes: The Machine had a clear shot at the highest rated wideout on the board, and they took it, selecting Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd with their first pick. If Floyd signs he will have a great mentor in Donald Driver as Chicago begins a new era with a new, still unnamed coach. The two other selections were Illinois guard Jeff Allen and Gold Domer Darius Fleming, a developmental LB.
Open Draft 1st Round: The Machine opted to double down on their run game, and perhaps provide a bit more rest for Michael Turner, picking a very similar back in Boise State’s Doug Martin with the 13th pick in the draft.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Chicago used their remaining picks as “double down” insurance, taking another guard and another wideout, though neither particularly highly touted. Insurance for their T-Draft is what we see here.
ST. LOUIS SKYHAWKS
Territorial Draft Notes: While St. Louis surprised many by not protecting Iowa OT Riley Reiff, they felt that there were more pressing needs on the roster. They opted to use their first pick on TE Michael Egnew of Mizzou, then went DT with Iowa’s Mick Daniels, and finished up with WR Marvin McNutt, another Hawkeye.
Open Draft 1st Round: So rather than protecting Reiff at tackle, the Skyhawks went for an interior lineman, selecting Iowa State guard Keechi Osemele in the 1st round of the Open Draft. Osemele is a bulldozer of a guard, likely going to be a big part of the run game for St. Louis.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: While we like Osemele, we think the real steal of the draft for St. Louis was when Miami DE Olivier Vernon fell all the way to pick 37 in the 2nd round. He should be a huge addition for St. Louis, who need more out of their pass rush.
ORLANDO RENEGADES
Territorial Draft Notes: The Renegades went for three very different players with their 3 pick, starting with WR Travis Benjamin from Miami, then following up with guard Brandon Washington, and then a position you don’t often hear much about, as they selected UCF long snapper Charley Hughlett. Hey, every team needs a long snapper, so why not draft a good one?
Open Draft 1st Round: The Renegades had to be shocked when Boise State DE Shea McClellin fell all the way to 15. Shea likely will serve as a respite player for Calais Campbell, but could also line up on the opposite side of Albert Haynesworth and cause real problems, as if opposition offenses were not already in a bind with the Orlando front 3.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: A very intriguing pick in the 2nd round as Orlando, who seem set up at QB with Eli Manning having a solid season last year, opted to go with a young, athletic, but somewhat short QB in former NC State starter and 1-year wonder at Wisconsin, Russell Wilson. We expect Wilson to spend the year on the bench behind Manning, but he does bring some interesting skills with him if he signs with the ‘Gades.
LAS VEGAS THUNDER
Territorial Draft Notes: Las Vegas had one of the weakest pools of players available, and getting permission to add Idaho to their other colleges did not do much to improve it. They ended up picking only 2 players, both from Utah, in guard Tony Bergstrom and DE Derrick Shelby, but to be honest, we are not sure either player can make the final 53. Practice squad seems more likely.
Open Draft 1st Round: With very little to build on in the T-Draft, Vegas needed to hit on as many Open Draft picks as possible. They started off very strong by selecting one of the most instinctual players in the draft, Alabama safety Mark Barron. Barron could be an impact player for the Thunder from the season opener on.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Of the later picks in the draft, the one that could pose some future payout is 5th round QB Case Keenum from the U. of Houston. Keenum had strong numbers at Houston, and will get the chance to learn at the feet of one of the most dynamic QB’s in the USFL in Jake Plummer. Give him a year or two and we could see Keenum pushing to become the next starter for the Thunder.
MICHIGAN PANTHERS
Territorial Draft Notes: The Panthers always seem to do well with the T-Draft, and this year is no exception. They may have found their future QB in Michigan State’s Kirk Cousins, as well as a potential target in fellow Spartan, WR B. J. Cunningham. They wrapped up the T-Draft with C David Molk, their lone Wolverine selection.
Open Draft 1st Round: Michigan opted to accept a trade offer from Denver that moved them down two spots. Denver jumped on CB Dre Kirkpatrick, but Michigan was not concerned about that. They watched Oakland go guard and that left them in prime position to select the halfback they had been eyeing all offseason, Oregon speedster LaMichael James. James is a shifty, make-you-miss kind of back, something very different from the more traditional straight ahead backs the Panthers have had in the past and still have with Mike Hart on the roster.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Michigan returned once more to the home state pipeline in the 3rd round, where they may have found a steal in another MSU product, DT Jerel Worthy, considered by some to have first round talent.
NASHVILLE KNIGHTS
Territorial Draft Notes: Nashville had a better than usual selection of talent out of Ole Miss, Tennessee and Vandy, and opted to go with the Rebel, OT Bobby Massie with their first pick. He is a monster of a man, and should be a contributor in his first year. They then selected Vol DE Malik Jackson and wrapped up their draft predictably by selecting Vol QB Matt Simms. Clearly not a priority pick for them, since they are hoping to land Andrew Luck, but a very valuable backup if Luck bolts to the NFL.
Open Draft 1st Round: The Knights sent this pick to Oakland, as well as next year’s number1, for a shot at Andrew luck. Now they have to seal the deal.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Of the later picks, our favorite is a somewhat undervalued pick, punter Marquette King from Fort Valley State. Film of King is hard to find, but what we have seen shows an absolute cannon of a leg. This is a guy who can flip the field with his foot. That is a rare thing to find, so using a 7th round pick on him seems more than reasonable.
CHARLOTTE MONARCHS
Territorial Draft Notes: DE Quinton Coples from UNC was something of a no-brainer for the Monarchs. Their second pick, WR T. J. Graham is more of a developmental pick, while selection 3, guard J. R. Sweezy feels a little extraneous, especially when the Monarchs could have locked down a LB like either NC State’s Terrell Manning or UNC’s Zach Brown.
Open Draft 1st Round: Having made the big trade with Denver to move from 19 to 11, Charlotte got the shot that they wanted to nab a 1st round QB talent. They went for OK State’s Brandon Wheedon as their choice over others like Brock Osweiler or ECU’s Dominique Davis. Wheeden will certainly get time to develop as the Monarchs plan to go with Jake Delhomme under center in 2012.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: The Monarchs are hoping that TE Garrett Celek, younger brother to Brent, can develop very much in the same mold as his older brother, a very solid dual option TE who has nice hands, and a good blocking technique.
OAKLAND INVADERS
Territorial Draft Notes: We all know what the big story here was, as Oakland landed not only picks but also edge rushing LB Terrell Suggs in trade for their first T-Draft pick, allowing Nashville to pick Andrew Luck. So what did Oakland do with their other picks? Well, how about OT Jonathan martin of Stanford and LB Mychal Kendricks of Cal. What? Not as impressive as Luck? Sure, but both could be solid contributors in areas of need.
Open Draft 1st Round: As we cited in our story of the trade, holding two picks between 18 and 20, Oakland could double up on talented players. They think they did just that by selecting Stanford G David DeCastro, a player they likely would have picked in the T-Draft had they not traded away the selection. They then added LB Bobby Wagner of Utah State to provide a solid 1-2 combo in the first round.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Our favorite midround pick for the Invaders was Hawaii LB Aaron Brown. Brown is speedy, but hits hard. He will also fit right in on an Oakland squad that has several Samoan and Polynesian players, just like playing in Hawaii.
BALTIMORE BLITZ
Territorial Draft Notes: Baltimore hopes their three picks turn into three signings because they could certainly benefit from all three. Safety Winston Guy of Kentucky, LB Danny Trevathan also of UK, and Louisville WR Josh Bellamy are all in positions where they could contribute right away.
Open Draft 1st Round: We love the fit between the aggressive Baltimore defense and the talents of LB Melvin Ingram of South Carolina, the Blitz’s first round pick. He could be extremely disruptive in Baltimore’s high risk, high reward system.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Another potentially disruptive defender the Blitz took was Troy DE Jonathan Massaquoi. He will need time to get up to speed against the tougher USFL competition, but he has natural burst and uses his hands well to get past linemen.
LOS ANGELES EXPRESS
Territorial Draft Notes: No shock here as LA hopes to land USC left tackle Matt Kalil and keep him in La-La Land for his pro career. The Express also selected HB Ronnie Hillman of SDSU and another Aztec in DT Jerome Lang. They had toyed with the idea of SDSU QB Ryan Lindley, but opted instead to Brodie Croyle to an extension.
Open Draft 1st Round: The Express opted to help out their secondary by picking Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith with their first round pick. Smith would be a solid contributor on Special Teams, but we don’t see him displacing Lance Schulters in 2012.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: How can a team in LA not sign a guy named Alameda? Alameda Ta’amu of Washington is a big space eater in the middle of the D-line, and could be a good find for a line that wants to rotate in more people to keep their line fresher this year.
ARIZONA WRANGLERS
Territorial Draft Notes: We knew the Wranglers would use at least 1 T-Draft pick on a QB, but which one. Tall and strong armed Brock Osweiler of ASU or more cerebral and mobile Nick Foles of Arizona. They opted for Foles, then added a potential and familiar weapon for him in fellow Wildcat, WR Juron Criner.
Open Draft 1st Round: The Wranglers opted for quantity over quality, moving out of the 1st round by trading their 23rd pick to Philadelphia and picking up a 2nd and 3rd rounder for their efforts.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: No team made more picks in the Open Draft than the Wranglers. Thanks to a combination of trades both this offseason and last year, the Wranglers finished the weekend with 14 players selected. Perhaps our favorite of all of them is the pick they got with Philly’s 2nd rounder, Auburn OT Brandon Mosley. His footwork needs some work, but this is a man mountain who could slot into the RT spot quickly.
WASHINGTON FEDERALS
Territorial Draft Notes: The Feds went for depth with their T-Draft picks, selecting Va Tech HB David Wilson as depth for Deuce McCallister, Wake Forest WR Chris Givens as backup for Deion Branch, and then WR Jarrett Boykin from Va Tech just to have yet another potential receiver/returner in camp.
Open Draft 1st Round: By pick 24 LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne had to be wondering what he had done wrong to slide so far. Washington is not complaining, but now they have to hope that Claiborne does not go Top 10 in the NFL draft or he will almost certainly jump at the NFL offer.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Washington, due to earlier trades from 2011, had only 4 total picks in the Open Draft, and aside from Claiborne, we honestly don’t see anyone who we think will avoid a training camp cut. Just being honest about that.
TEXAS OUTLAWS
Territorial Draft Notes: In a year when UT did not produce a single player graded as 1st round talent, the Outlaws just did not have their usual crop of blue chippers. They went with 2 Baylor prospects, selecting WR Kendall Wright first, then C Philip Blake. They finished up with LB Keenan Robinson, viewed as a mid-round talent by most pundits.
Open Draft 1st Round: The Outlaws continued looking for LBs in the Open Draft, using the 25th pick on USC product Nick Perry. Perry can play middle or strong side backer but will have to improve his coverage skills to stick with the Outlaws.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Do not sleep on yet another Outlaw LB choice. Sixth rounder Vontez Burfict out of ASU may be a bit of a hot head, but he is also a mean hitter and tackler. He should be a dynamo on special teams if nothing else.
PHILADELPHIA STARS
Territorial Draft Notes: In a year when Penn State did not crank out linebackers, Philadelphia had to try something new. They started with DT Devon Still, then went to TE Evan Rodriguez of Temple and HB Bernard Pierce, also of Temple with their 3 picks.
Open Draft 1st Round: Trading with Arizona allowed Philadelphia to get two selections in during the final stages of the first round. They went O-line with both. First up was Wisconsin guard Kevin Zeitler, and three picks later, they selected Cal OT Mitchell Schwartz. They are hoping that both can be 10-year starters, which would make this a very successful draft indeed.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: They may not be the most talented players in the draft, but the Stars’ selected two of the best names in the draft, both at guard. SMU product Josh LeRibeus is outdone only by South Carolina product Rokevious Watkins. Too bad the two cannot be merged into one to get Rokevious LeRibeus.
PITTSBURGH MAULERS
Territorial Draft Notes: The Summer Bowl runner up went full John Denver with three picks from West Virginia in their T-Draft. DE Vinny Curry of Marshall joins WVU grads Najee Goode (LB) and Keith Tandy (CB).
Open Draft 1st Round: With the penultimate pick in the first round, the Maulers opt to go defense once again, as Coach Rivera hopes to add UConn DT Kendall Reyes to his rotation of D-linemen.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: Another great name for a player, guard Senio Kelemete from the U. of Washington was Pittsburgh’s 3rd round pick. They also found an answer for the departure of Brandon Jacobs, selecting Ole Miss HB Brandon Bolden.
TAMPA BAY BANDITS
Territorial Draft Notes: The Bandits passed on CB Stephon Gilmore, and opted instead to go with WR Alshon Jeffery with their first pick. The Gamecock receiver certainly fits a need as Tampa tries to rebuild their depleted WR group and anticipate the retirement of Joey Galloway. They also selected FSU LB Nigel Bradham and another Seminole in OT Andrew Datko.
Open Draft 1st Round: The Bandits dropped back 7 spots and out of the first round in a trade with New Jersey.
Our “Best of the Rest” Pick: The Bandits added a QB to sit behind Rhett Bomar in the 5th round of the draft, selecting San Diego State product Ryan Lindley. He is not the gunslinger that either Culpepper or Bomar can be, but he does have a lively arm.
As we anticipate USFL camps opening up and players reporting, two stories will dominate the news around the league, first, the signing of rookie draft picks, and, soon after, the opening of the NFL-USFL Transfer Window. The first will have an immediate impact on the second as teams that are banking on landing that key contributor out of the draft may find that their prize rookie opts to join the NFL, as typically 50% (more in the earlier rounds) tend to do.
The insecurity of the rookie signings forces teams to have a plan B, which usually leads one of two ways, signing one of the few veterans still in the pool of USFL free agents, often overpaying or settling for a short-term solution from veterans on the cusp of retirement, or, alternatively, looking at the NFL free agent market and outbidding both fellow USFL clubs and all 32 NFL clubs to try to land an NFL veteran for that key unfilled roster spot. In some cases the NFL pool offers a clear advantage, in others we see another form of settling, with NFL talent garnering significantly better pay simply because the USFL franchise has few other options available after missing on their draft picks.
In many years, the NFL free agent market is pretty slim, after all, just like in September-October with the USFL, the 1 month head start that NFL teams have to sign other NFL players before the transfer window opens can mean a lot of talent is off the board before USFL clubs can begin to meet with free agents. This year, we are starting the year with a pretty deep, and very intriguing pool. Just how many of these NFL players will remain unsigned by the mid-February window, well, that is to be seen. But, as we look at the 10 most intriguing free agents, we do expect a good number to delay signing in the hopes that they will get either a strong offer from a USFL squad or enough interest from the USFL to force a good counter from an NFL team. With that strategy in mind, here is our list of the 10 most interesting, and potentially impactful, NFL free agents in this year’s pool.
10--HB Ryan Grant: There are three potential starting backs in this year’s pool, with Grant rated slightly ahead of San Diego’s Mike Tolbert but behind Houston’s Arian Foster. Grant provides a good mix of one-cut dynamism and short yardage power. He is something of a tweener, not a scat back to be sure, but not a pounder either. But, for a team that wants to use a zone-blocking scheme, or just one that already has a true bulldozer of a back in house, getting a player with Grant’s breakaway potential will be enticing.
9--TE John Carlson: Several USFL clubs went into the draft looking for a potential starter at TE, but it was a pretty week group, with only Stanford’s Coby Fleener grading out as a top 1-2 round prospect. That means that a veteran like Carlson, who has had some good years in Seattle, will absolutely get a lot of attention from across the league.
8--OT Jared Gaither: Were Gaither a guard or center we don’t think he would garner the attention he has, but tackle is a tough position to find, and Gaither, while not an immediate All-league candidate, is a solid blocker in both the run and passing game. With the number of teams in the USFL hoping to fill either a LT, or more likely a RT slot, someone is not going to land their prize rookie tackle, and that could mean interest in Gaither.
7--WR Wes Welker: Another player who is parlaying a strong 2011 season into a possible cash windfall. Welker broke out in his first season in New England (his 4th NFL season), catching 112 passes for 1,175 yards. His numbers increased every year, save for an injury-impacted 2010, and this past year he hit 122 receptions and 1,500 yards as the Patriots had one of their best years in decades. New England has made offers to retain Welker, as you would expect, and will continue to be a factor, but he has not resigned and could be available for a team that has a clear need in the slot and some cash to throw his way.
6--QB Alex Smith: A #1 overall draft pick (ahead of Aaron Rodgers), Smith has been viewed as something of a bust in NFL circles, but it is more that he has had issues staying healthy. 2011 was only his second 16-game season since coming into the NFL in 2005, but in 2011 he led San Francisco to a 13-3 record and threw for over 3,000 yards. In Smith a club is getting a player who still has strong physical attributes but who may need to be in the right system to succeed, one that helps him with his progressions and decision making.
5--DE Cliff Avril: Detroit’s Avril is an intriguing option. He has slowly seen his sack numbers increase from 5 in his rookie season to 11 in 2011. That is a nice trajectory, and any team that signs the Purdue product could be catching him at the high point of his career, getting 3-5 solid years of pass rushing on the edge from Avril. That will be enticing for many clubs even if Avril never reaches the heights of some of the top edge rushers in either league.
4--HB Arian Foster: The Oilers’ have major cap issues and have two huge free agents on the market. While Mario Williams is getting most of the press, HB Arian Foster is a major talent who has produced in Houston but could now make a leap elsewhere. While not as coveted a position as QB or DE, finding a bell cow back in free agency is almost as rare, and, as we saw with Birmingham signing Joseph Addai last year, can help transform an offense.
3--DT Mario Williams: The Houston Oilers’ All-Pro DE could be the most targeted player in the pool, and almost certainly will get advice from his agent to wait out the NFL offers until the USFL clubs have a shot. It is not every day that a player capable of 20+ sacks per season becomes available in free agency. Half of the teams in the NFL and the USFL have to be salivating that Williams is in the pool as edge rusher can be one of the toughest positions to find in free agency, and one of the most sought after. Expect a feeding frenzy here, where the money will be good from all teams who make offers, so coaching fit and scheme could be the difference to entice Williams to town.
2--WR Mike Wallace: The former Steeler is a high output, high ceiling, but high headache player. Yet another Diva in a long line of wideouts who can be a PR nightmare but an on-field terror for defenses. Wallace played 3 years with the Steelers, following a strong rookie year with over 1,200 yards and 10 TDs in his second season. He dipped a bit in 2011, but still had very strong numbers, so it is very tempting to take a shot at him, especially for a franchise that feels confident in its coaching staff to be able to reign in the extroverted and often image-damaging comments that Wallace is prone to make.
1--QB Peyton Manning: This is the great mystery. Manning says he will return to play football after his spinal fusion surgery. His former team, the Colts, were so convinced that the former MVP and Super Bowl champion would not be able to play again that they cut him loose only 1 year into a 5-year contract. If his workouts continue to show progress, he could be one of the most coveted players in the free agent market. And while he likely would not see the field for a USFL team until at least Week 8 or 9, possibly until 2013, if there is a chance he could return to play at the level he had for a decade in the NFL, well, that is a risk several teams may be willing to take.
Beyond these 10, there is certainly more talent in the pool, whether for depth or for potential. Among the names being discussed are QB’s Charlie Whitehurst, Chad Henne, Brian Hoyer and Josh Johnson. Halfbacks like Mike Tolbert, Khalil Bell or Tim Hightower could see some attention. Wideouts beyond Wallace and Welker include Eric Weems, Josh Morgan, Eddie Royal, and Jacoby Jones. The TE pool also includes Buffalo’s Scott Chandler and LA’s Kevin Boss. Among linemen you have tackles Marcus McNeill and Geoff Schwartz, guards Carl Nicks and Travelle Martin and center Scott Wells.
The DE pool dips quite a bit after Williams and Avril, but both Andre Carter and Anthony Spencer could get some attention. At DT you have players like Paul Soliai, Red Bryant and Sinoe Pouha available. At linebacker Jarret Johnson, Ahmad Brooks, Erin Henderson and Stephen Tolluch will almost certainly warrant some inquiries. Corners in the market include LaDarius Webb from Baltimore, Brandon Carr of the Chiefs and Brent Grimes of Atlanta. Tyvon Branch of the Raiders tops a safety group that also includes Michael Griffin and Dashon Goldson. And finally, there are several punters who could find work in the USFL, including former Cowboy Mat McBriar and the Cardinals Dave Zastudil.
LEAGUE MEETING DECISIONS REVEALED
While the USFL owners' meeting was held back in September, very little was initially revealed or reported about any decisions made. We learned then that the league had, in fact, moved to retain the 12-team playoff format, dismissing the concerns that on occasion a 9-7 team might miss the playoffs, as was the case this year with Las Vegas. Clearly the bigger concern was that a 7-9 team could make the postseason in the larger format, something that did happen and led to the surprising run of the 2005 Seattle Dragons in 2005, who finished the year 6-8 but qualified and went on to win a league title. There was also concern that the 14-team format, while producing 6 Wild Card games, instead of 4, would also provide only 1 team with the advantage of a bye week, instead of the top 2 seeds getting the delayed start to the postseason, something most clubs and players value quite a bit.
Other than that confirmation, which was released upon conclusion of the meetings, little had been reported out until just recently. It seems that on the matters of the television contract with with ESPN, on the concerns regarding Destination Dallas, and on the financing of the new domed stadium in Las Vegas, the owners felt more information needed to be gathered, reports presented, and arguments both pro and con had to be laid out. Ad Hoc select groups were organized, and those reports came in just before the holidays in December. A special Winter Meeting was called for the first week of January, and in Los Angeles the owners again convened. Here is what we now know from that meeting.
ESPN Contract
The league rejected the initial deal to have EFN cover games in the afternoon timeslot, with ESPN then covering the Saturday and Sunday evening games. There had been objections from NBC, which has been trying to expand their footprint for several years, and from several owners who feared that their markets in particular would be disproportionally moved from broadcast networks to the cable-exclusive EFN broadcasts. The league and the ABC/ESPN group went back and forth with counter offers and the following was eventually agreed upon:
NBC would retain their 1-game per week broadcast format for 2012, but in 2013 would be granted a second timeslot, a Saturday Night broadcast which would run simultaneously with ESPN's night game, essentially moving one of the Saturday afternoon games to the evening timeslot. ABC and FOX would now be broadcasting a total of 4 Saturday games, rather than 5, which means that every Saturday game would be a national broadcast. ESPN would retain the Sunday Night weekly finale, taking over for the EFN broadcast, but would also pick up 2 Sunday games, one in each timeslot, again maximizing the number of national broadcasts, with ABC, FOX, and ESPN all covering 2 games each Sunday afternoon. EFN would be used to simulcast all 3 Sunday ESPN games, but could only be exclusive with their broadcast for games during the opening 8 weeks of the season, with requirements that ESPN also broadcast any EFN games during the final 8 weeks of the year.
So, what is the result for viewers and fans? Actually very positive. Essentially this arrangement means that in almost every case, all 14 USFL games will be available for national broadcast coast to coast. There will be the traditional NBC Friday Night Lights game, only 4 Saturday afternoon games, two each at noon and 4pm ET, with ABC nationally broadcasting one in each timeslot and ABC the other. Then, on Saturday night, fans get their choice of a second NBC game or the nationally broadcast ESPN Saturday Night Football game. Finally on Sunday, you would have 6 games split between the noon and 4pm ET kickoff time, one in each timeslot on ABC, one on FOX, and one on ESPN/EFN, with only early season games potentially limited to the cable elective channel of EFN, the ESPN Football Network. The week, as always, ends with ESPN's Sunday Night Football broadcast.
Who loses in this deal, well two groups really, The folks at EFN lose their exclusivity for most of the year, but overall ESPN, giving up exclusivity on Saturday Night, does pick up 2 more games per week. ABC and FOX both lose 2-3 games per week with 2 going to ESPN and 1 game per week now with NBC, but they too gain an advantageous position by being able to have all broadcasts as national broadcasts rather than regional coverage. The other group that may now have issue with the TV deal is the ever-shrinking population of Americans who have not obtained either cable or satellite TV and rely on broadcast networks. With more games to be provided on ESPN and/or EFN, there is a greater chance that they will miss their favorite team in any given week. But, as we have seen with most professional sports broadcasts, the move for some time now has been towards cable channels as a larger piece of the television pie. So, if you have rabbit ears on top of your set, the time may be now to break down and get hooked up.
Las Vegas Stadium Project
While the decision to invest in Las Vegas as a market and for the league to directly invest in the construction of a domed stadium for the Thunder was never in doubt, the question around how the league would finance their portion of the project was very much up for debate. There were some who sought to have the Thunder and the city of Las Vegas serve as the initial backer, with the league money delayed until 2013 or later as a second phase of project development. There was concern that both parties were subject to possible shortfalls and delays in payment which could derail or delay the project. City officials in Las Vegas had agreed to a 30% commitment, but had yet to implement the local hotel and restaurant tax that would provide the revenue. Meanwhile, Thunder ownership had balked at being required to put a large portion of their committed 40% funding into the project in 2012 and 2013, hoping they too could spread out their financial commitment over the full 5 years of the project.
In the end, the position of Thunder ownership won over enough votes to force the league to accept a dual-sponsorship position, one that had league funds begin to flow to the project beginning in 2012 and both league and Thunder funding to span the full 5 years of the project. This will impact the league's bottom line, of course, just as it does the Thunder's, with one strategy to provide funding tied to a slower increase in the salary pool, the largest single expenditure made by the league from its shared revenue model. Essentially this means that while funds are diverted to the Las Vegas stadium project, we should expect the annual shared revenue to be capped artificially and the salary cap to see only modest growth over the 5-year span. That likely will not sit well with the player's union, who will insist that the cap must expand as revenue expands in order for the league to meet its requirement that the cap be tied to a percentage of revenue, not a percentage of post-commitment profit. Expect some discussion of this aspect of the funding to be central to upcoming union-league CBA conversations.
Franchise Sale & Relocation Policy
While there was clear sentiment among the owners that expansion is preferable to relocation, there was also hesitancy among many owners on codifying any restrictions on the ability of an owner to sell their franchise, even if that meant relocation and abandonment of a current market. The owners, fully aware that today's interest among investors could lead to tomorrow's windfall sale of their own franchise at 5, 10, or even 20 times the initial investment, were in no mood to restrict their own ability at some point to sell their franchise. At the same time, the recent engagement between the Destination Dallas investor group and ownership in larger market franchises such as Chicago, Los Angeles, and Boston did send ripples of concern through the group.
We have to remember that while the owners are largely in favor of a big market like Dallas getting into the USFL, they are very wary of the impact of losing another major market, like Chicago's 2nd largest MSA would have on the league. And what if the Dallas example is allowed to proceed, only to be followed by much smaller markets with deep-pocketed ownership groups seeking to move a franchise? The nightmare scenario for the league is to see cities like San Diego, Raleigh, or Oklahoma City pull teams away from LA, New Jersey, Chicago, or Houston in a move that would diminish the league's market share, impact their television contracts, and shift the focus away from the league as a legitimate major league alongside the NFL.
So, what was decided? Essentially that the league would take a laissez-faire position to individual franchise sale, potentially opening the door to the concerns many expressed but preserving each owner's ability to 'cash out" when the time is right, but allowing for the league ownership to veto the relocation of any franchise, or require "replacement" of a franchise. Essentially a group like Destination Dallas could purchase a club, but only relocate it in one of two scenarios, a 2/3 vote of the ownership to permit the relocation, possible with a market like Dallas, but unlikely for a smaller market seeking to move a larger market team to a less populous region or city. The other option available would be for a relocation plan to be approved if, and only if, it was paired with a plan to return a franchise to a market within a 3-year span. So, essentially, to use a hypothetical example, if an ownership group from a smaller market, say Raleigh, wanted to buy the LA Express, and the owners in LA wanted to make the sale, the league could hold the sale until a plan was developed to repopulate LA with a club. This could be through an expansion or by allowing another owner to shift their franchise to LA. That last option would potentially lead to a further issue, but if the market being abandoned was a smaller market, it is likely the league would opt to swap out a Nashville or Portland for LA or Chicago, even if it produced ill-will in the original market.
This is good news for fans in places like New Jersey, Chicago, and LA, but potentially bad news for the Birminghams, Portlands, and Charlottes of the league, as it all but guarantees that major cities will retain their franchises or get replacements while smaller markets may be left in the lurch. But how does this impact the current issue at hand, the potential sale of a franchise to the Destination Dallas group? Well, of the three franchises most under scrutiny as possible sales to DD, Boston, Chicago, and Nashville, it means that the path is easiest if DD were to purchase the Nashville Knights, as a much smaller market, but that purchase of either Chicago or Boston could be feasible. So, fans of the Knights, Cannons, and Machine need to be worried at this point, in that order.
So, there we are, awaiting the signing frenzy from the draft, looking forward to following the NFL-USFL transfer window, and expecting some last minute USFL free agent signings as teams enter camp, assess their late offseason gaps, and start prepping for a March opening weekend that cannot come too soon. We will be here, and will be back with a 2-part Season Preview in March as we look ahead to a momentous 30th USFL season.
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