A week with plenty of action, but no teams able to clinch a playoff spot. Basically we saw everyone stay in rank with most of the major players in the playoff hunt holding their positions. What it leaves us with is a familiar situation for Week 16, with New Orleans and Nashville set for a winner-takes-all game for the Southern Division, and a 3-team hunt for 2 Wild Card spots in the West, with Denver and Portland controlling their own destiny while Houston needs a win and one of those two to lose. We will cover all the action of this week and take a look ahead at a Week 16 that may see a lot of teams resting some starters, but with several division titles still on the line, we still expect some good games as we look ahead. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We begin by looking at our game of the week in Week 15, as St. Louis headed to Chicago for their big rivalry game at Soldier Field.
ST. LOUIS SKYHAWKS 30 CHICAGO MACHINE 25
The Skyhawks headed into Chicago with the goal of not having a post-clinching letdown as so many teams in past years have had. Coach Arians talked to his team about playing their best ball through the final 2 weeks to keep their minds right as the playoffs approached. Chicago would challenge St. Louis, as any good rival should, but in the end the Skyhawks came away with the win and kept their momentum going.
Chicago had the advantage early, scoring on their first 4 drives, but with three of those 4 scores being field goals, their lead was not as dominant as it could have been. As Chicago was putting 3 kicks on the board in the first quarter, St. Louis scored its first points on a 1-play drive as a play fake on 1st down after a good kickoff return saw Josh Freeman connect on a deep ball shot to Taylor Jacobs. The play would go 63 yards in total and help St. Louis keep pace as the first quarter ended with Chicago, who had dominated in many ways, leading only 9-7.
In the 2nd quarter the Machine would expand their lead when Brady Quinn connected with Donald Driver on a short TD toss. But, as has happened so frequently with the Machine this year, their offense started to sputter and their defense could not hold for a full 60 minutes. Down 16-7, St. Louis would score the next 17 points and leap past the Machine by the end of the third.
St. Louis got their first of 3 consecutive scores late in the 2nd when a 2-minute drill produced a 19-yard TD toss from Freeman to Sinorice Moss. That score put them down only 2 at the half, 16-14. The lone score of the third quarter gave St. Louis its first lead of the day, with Rob Bironas’s kick giving them the slight 17-16 lead after three. They would add to that score early in the 4th when Freeman hit on his 3rd of what would be 4 TD tosses, finding Jordy Nelson on a deep corner route that would go for 41 yards.
Down 24-16, Chicago had to rediscover its offense, and a shift to a no huddle helped them do just that. They marched 47 yards on their next drive and added a 4th Tim Seder field goal to pull within 5 at 24-19. After a rare stop of the Skyhawks, they then proceeded to burn a lot of clock and slowly grind their way down field, capping off a 14-play drive with another Quinn to Driver TD toss. The Machine would go for 2 but fail, giving them the narrowest of margins at 25-24.
St. Louis would have 1:24 to get into field goal range and flip the score back in their favor. Chicago would eschew the traditional prevent zones that so often allow a well-structured offense to chip their way down the field. Instead they brought pressure and played a lot of 2-deep zone. That strategy also proved ineffective when Josh Freeman found Eric Weems on his lone catch of the day, but what a catch, a perfectly timed seam route that allowed Weems to catch the ball on the run, full speed, and race 40 yards down the field right through the Chicago secondary. He was dragged down at the 8 yard line, and injured on the play, but it put St. Louis in position to win the game and burn the clock as best they could.
After running the ball somewhat ineffectively on first and 2nd down, the ball was still at the 8. St. Louis could have just dove forward again and let Rob Bironas win it for them, but instead of a dive play, Coach Arians sent in play action. The play worked perfectly and Josh Freeman had a basic fade route throw to Taylor Jacobs for the score. Despite failing on the 2-point try, St. Louis had a 5-point lead and with only 32 seconds left, Chicago simply could not get the ball into the endzone. St. Louis would take another win and moved to 5-2 in the division by sweeping the Machine on the year.
WASHINGTON 35 TEXAS 28
In what many are calling a Summer Bowl prequel, the Federals scored 14 in the final 10 minutes to knock off the Outlaws in San Antonio. Deuce McCallister rushed for 104 and 2 scores and Deion Branch led all receviers with 90 yards. The Feds also held Arian Foster to only 25 yards rushing as the D crowded the line all game long. The win keeps the Feds in position for a Week 16 shot at a higher seed. Texas has already locked up the SW Division, but could finish as the #2 seed with a win next week.
BIRMINGHAM 10 NEW ORLEANS 13
The Breakers edged a game Birmingham squad to set up yet another Week 16 showdown with the Nashville Knights, with a playoff spot and the division title on the line. Both defenses played well in this one, with New Orleans held to only 194 total yards and Birmingham slightly better at 216, but in the end, the Breakers were able to position Graham Gano for the game winning kick and improve to 8-7.
BOSTON 10 TAMPA BAY 48
Two teams not headed to the postseason, but far more stability in Tampa Bay, where the Bandits are hoping to finish the year with a winning record. Tampa outgained the Cannons 439-213 as Willis McGahee again went over 100 yards. So did David Tyree on five catches for 109 and a score. With the score out of hand we got our first extended look at rookie Ryan Lindley, who went 7 of 10 for 101 and a short TD toss to Shane Vereen.
OAKLAND 27 JACKSONVILLE 10
The Invaders kept their hopes of a Pacific Division title very much alive by cruising past the Bulls in Jacksonville. Pat White looked a lot better in his second start, throwin for 247 and 3 TDs, including two to Pierre Garçon. Oakland remains tied with Las Vegas, but loses out on the tiebreaker, so they need a Thunder loss in Week 16 to snatch the division from Vegas.
ARIZONA 18 MICHIGAN 21
A pretty good game between two teams that are not headed to the postseason. Larry Fitzgerald and Hines Ward both proving they deserve some All-USFL consideration as each goes over 100 yards, Ward also scoring twice for the Panthers.
DENVER 9 LOS ANGELES 17
A huge blow to Denver’s playoff hopes as a loss in LA knocks them down to 8-7 and within range of both Portland and Houston for the final 2 Wild Card spots. They are in a win and in game next week as they face their rivals, Arizona, in Glendale. A great chance for the Wranglers to play spoilers. Denver was hobbled when Matt Leinart went out early with a suspected concussion. Dan LeFevour was unable to rally the troops after LA put up the first 14 points in the game.
NASHVILLE 32 ORLANDO 22
Just as New Orleans did, Nashville knocked off a non-playoff team to set up the big game next week. With 110 yards Frank Gore continued to be the engine for the Knights, but Peyton Manning is absolutely stepping up as he grows more comfortable with Jim Johnson’s offense. Manning went 24 of 32 for 205 and 3 scores as the Knights move to 8-7 and control their playoff hopes. Win next week and they host a Wild Card game.
MEMPHIS 3 CHARLOTTE 23
Charlotte’s defense assured that the Monarchs would clinch a playoff spot. The Monarchs held Memphis to only 187 total yards, including a miserable 63 yards passing as Ryan Mallett completed only 8 attempts. Expect to see the Showboats look for an upgrade at the position for next season as 2 years in Mallett is just not showing much.
NEW JERSEY 37 BALTIMORE 24
The Generals lock up a playoff spot at 11-4, and could challenge for the division depending on what happens next week. Sam Bradford again looked very much like a 1st round pick, throwing for 4 touchdowns on the day, hitting 4 different receivers.
PHILADELPHIA 34 HOUSTON 20
The Stars retain their hold on 1st place both in the NE Division and in the Eastern Conference with a nice road win in Houston. The star of the Stars on this day was safety Jarius Byrd who returned not one, but two picks for scores. Houston was in the game at 20-13 until the 2nd of Byrd’s picks, after which the Stars never looked back, building a 34-13 lead before giving up a final minute garbage time TD.
PITTSBURGH 24 OHIO 29
Ohio gets a rivalry game win against a dispirited Mauler squad. Pittsburgh was seen as a Summer Bowl contender but this loss guarantees they will finish the year with a losing record. Isaiah Pead had himself a day in this one, rushing for 142 yards on only 18 carries (a 7.9 average) and, oh, by the way, rushing for 3 touchdowns as well. Looks like Ohio has found themselves a back to build around.
PORTLAND 27 SEATTLE 16
Portland takes advantage of losses by both Denver and Houston to move up and put themselves in better position for a Wild Card. They now sit at 8-7 and a win next week will get them in the dance. Ryan Fitzpatrick overcame 2 picks to throw for 319 yards and 2 scores as the Stags win the Cascade Clash in Seattle. Seneca Wallace got the start over Alex Brink but it was clear he had a limited playbook at his disposal.
ATLANTA 10 LAS VEGAS 28
The Sunday nightcap was a good inter-conference matchup between two playoff-bound teams. Las Vegas’s defense proved the tougher of the two as they hold Atlanta to only 10 points despite 302 total yards. Marshawn Lynch also proved he was fully back from injury, rushing for 141 yards on 27 bonecrunching carries. The Thunder face LA next week, knowing that a win at Farmers Insurance Field will get them a division title.
Expect a Lot of Subs in Week 16 Games
While there are certainly a lot of games with playoff ramifications this week, that does not mean that that all participants will be at full strength. Fans should expect to see a lot of young players and backups getting starts for non-playoff teams, even if their matchups could impact the playoff scenarios for their opponents. It is the way of the world. Teams don’t want to risk their stars in a meaningless end of season game, except in those rare cases where a player is seeking a personal milestone or leaguewide recognition.
We have already gotten word from several coaches of QB changes for Week 16, and we should expect that several other players will be held out of action and given a final week “bye” from the rigors of the game. Among the QBs we expect to see this week, we have confirmation on the following:
Arizona will be giving Nick Foles a chance to show his stuff, resting David Carr.
Chicago is giving Mike Kafka a rare start as they protect Brady Quinn for 2013.
LA has been noncommittal on Mark Sanchez, so we could see Brody Croyle under center.
Michigan wants to take a look at rookie Kirk Cousins, so Griese may get the start but leave early.
Orlando has already announced that rookie Russell Wilson will get his first start in the pros.
Tampa Bay put Ryan Lindley in last week, and we expect him to start in Week 16.
For these teams it is a chance to see what they have in younger players, or to avoid an injury to a key player in a meaningless game. Of course, with many of these teams facing playoff hopefuls, the results of Week 16 matchups could be determined by some of these moves, something which fans often find unsettling, but which is a natural part of the long term strategy teams must employ.
Final Week to Change the Leaderboards
One week left and a few key statistical races are still there to be won. Here is a quick recap of some races to watch.
Passing Yards: Big Ben has a 19-yard lead on Arizona’s David Carr, but with Carr expected to sit, we think Roethlisberger will hold on for the title.
Rushing Title: Antowain Smith is ahead of Willis McGahee by 11 yards, and we expect both to play in the season finales, so this one could come down to the wire.
Receiving Yards: Joey Galloway has a 30 yard lead on Tory Holt. We are not sure how much either player will see the field this week, but we know that Holt would love nothing more than to snag the title. 3rd place receiver Marques Colston could jump over both of them as the Outlaws are playing to win a bye this week so Colston should go the whole game.
Receptions: Nashville’s Robert Meachem has a 1 catch lead on Boston’s Justin Blackmon, and only 4 receptions ahead of Joey Galloway. Of the three, Meachem is the only one in a meaningful game as he plays for Nashville’s playoff life. So, will that be an advantage, or will Blackmon and Galloway be able to pile up catches in games with little else on the line.
Tackles: Houston’s James Farrior is currently 2 tackles ahead of Jacksonville’s Mike Vrabel. With the Gamblers battling for their playoff lives, we expect Farrior to have a big game, and that could give him the title.
Sacks: Calais Campbell may sit this one out, which gives Texas’s Reynaldo Wynn a shot, 2 sacks behind Campbell, to tie or surpass the Renegade DE. If he can, he could also snag the Defensive POTY title, since voters are reluctant to give it to Campbell again, especially with Orlando’s season crashing and burning all around him.
Interceptions: Three men stand tied at 7 apiece. Philly FS Jairus Byrd entered the group with an astounding 2 pick-sixes this past week. He joins Atlanta’s all-time great, Charles Woodson and Charlotte’s Asante Samuel. One pick could be enough for one of these three to take the title. Of course there is also a cluster at 6 picks, so a 2-pick day could rocket someone else to the league interception title.
What We Expect of Black Monday
Lots of questions around the league as teams who are out of playoff position look to fix what ails them. We know already that Marvin Lewis is leaving the Dragons after their Week 16 season finale at Chicago, and there is general expectation that John Fox will not be staying on with Boston when they relocate to Dallas. Beyond that it is all speculation. Here is what we are hearing with one week left.
We fully expect Emmitt Thomas to be relieved of duties in Orlando. The season has been a disaster for the Renegades and Thomas just does not have the resume to survive a 3 or 3 win season when so much more was expected.
Ohio has to be looking at Bart Andrus’s 2-year tenure and wondering if he can turn the club around. The Glory have had some moments this year, so they may well give him a 3rd year to prove himself and to get this club back into contention.
The arrival of Cam Newton and a 7-win season in 2011 had folks in Alabama high on Mike Shanahan, but a return to 10+ losses is not what the Stallion faithful expected this year. We think Shanahan survives for another year, but would not be shocked if the Stallions opt to go elsewhere.
Rick Schiano in Chicago and Brad Childress in Memphis are both in their first years, so expect owenship to write off this year as a retool and to give both time to prove they can get results with a refurbished roster.
Gregg Williams had better hope that his 10-6 season in 2011 is still fresh enough in LA ownership’s minds to look past what has been a very disappointing 2012. We could see a strong case being made that for all of LA’s defensive improvement, the offense has just not been good at all. That could mean looking for a new OC, or it could mean trouble for Williams.
Dick LeBeau is an institution at Michigan, with 2 league titles. We don’t see a pair of down years being enough to cost him his job. That said, the Panthers are hoping for a rebound in 2013, and may be looking at a new QB as well.
Ron Rivera has to be disappointed with 2012 in Pittsburgh, but after two straight division titles and a 2011 Summer Bowl appearance, ownership is still solidly behind Rivera.
No changes in the playoff berths, with 3 spots still open after Week 15. What we have on tap next week is a play-in game between Nashville and New Orleans, a ton of games that will impact seeding, including who wins the top seed in the East, and a couple of divisions still to be decided, including the Northeast, Southeast, South, and Pacific.
Teams that control their own destiny include Philadelphia (Division & top seed), Charlotte (Division), Nashville & New Orleans (Division), and Las Vegas (Division). The Thunder can also lock up a bye with a win next week. If not, then Texas could take the 2nd seed and get the week to rest. Among the three Western Wild Card contenders, both Denver and Portland, sitting at 8-7, are in the dance if they win next week. If either loses, Houston could sweep in with a victory in Week 16.
Some concerns across the league on offensive lines as several guards in particularly are likely out for an extended period. We also should not expect to see Arizona TE Rob Gronkowski, Tampa DE Jason Pierre-Paul, or NJ cornerback Devin McCourty in Week 16. We expect many others will also take the week off either for safekeeping or to allow them to heal before the Wild Card weekend.
OUT
Herman Johnson G BIR Collarbone IR
Dan Santucci G MEM Ankle IR
Max Jean-Gilles G NSH Jaw 2-4 Weeks
Erik Pears OT LA Concussion 1-2 Weeks
Robert Quinn DE BAL Back 1-2 Weeks
DOUBTFUL
Jason Pierre-Paul DE TBY Toe
Aaron Curry LB WSH Toe
Stephen Paea DT POR Hand
Austin Pettis WR CHI Hamstring
QUESTIONABLE
Jamar Fletcher CB DEN Ribs
Devin McCourty CB NJ Hand
Terrance Kiel FS ORL Toe
William Bethea HB STL Hip
Arrelious Benn WR OHI Wrist
Rob Gronkowski TE ARZ Hand
Dallas Surpasses Season Ticket Goal
Happy faces all around in the DFW as the Dallas Roughnecks have reached and surpassed their goal of 30,000 season tickets sold for the 2013 season at the Cotton Bowl. With the recent renovations reducing the stadium’s capacity to 72,304, the Roughnecks could continue to sell season ticket packages to their cap of 45,000, allowing league-mandated space for flex packages (4 game sets) and individual ticket sales. At the pace Dallas has been able to get buy in on the new team we would expect their full season ticket capacity to be full by the time this year’s Summer Bowl comes around.
And while the sales team is celebrating, the front office is hard at work. Dallas announced this week that they will be hiring former New Orleans Breaker head scout and current Houston Oiler Director of Player Personnel Bobby Grier to be their new GM. This is likely only the first of several changes within team leadership as the club relocates from Boston to Dallas for the 2013 season. Coach John Fox is expected to be released once we get past the final game of the season for Boston. We also fully expect the Dallas franchise to make a change at QB next year after a second rough season for Jake Locker, the U. of Washington product.
Dallas has already received word that adjustments to the Territorial Draft will allow them to add more regional schools to their profile, with the club expected to have both SMU and TCU as regional schools. They will likely also ask for Oklahoma to be added to their area, but New Jersey has held the rights to OU players for most of the club’s existence, and is likely to fight back on that. OK State may be a more realistic option for the Roughnecks as it is currently an unprotected school.
Las Vegas Stadium Authority Trying to Woo an NFL Franchise As USFL Concerns Mount
With concerns about the financial stability and transparency of the Las Vegas Thunder, it seems the city of Las Vegas and their stadium authority are not feeling particularly confident in the USFL’s commitment to the city and its stadium project. While the financial issues have to date been dealt with internally by the USFL, there is concern that the Thunder franchise could be in a more serious situation than previously imagined and that legal action against one or more of the Thunder ownership group could destabilize the franchise just as the stadium is set to go on-line in 2015.
With that a pressing concern, it has been reported that the city of Las Vegas has made overtures to several NFL franchises, each with their own stadium concerns, to try to present Las Vegas as an alternative. This has included the San Diego Chargers, whose dissatisfaction with Qualcomm Stadium an d their failed efforts to get a new facility built is well known. Las Vegas has also reached out to the Jacksonville Jaguars, St. Louis Rams, and Tennessee Copperheads. It is pretty well-established that the Rams are pushing for a new open-air stadium in St. Louis and receiving no support from the city or from the USFL SkyHawks. Tennessee shares their stadium in Nashville with the USFL Knights, and are apparently upset that the Knights have been able to negotiate a more lucrative deal for stadium parking and concession revenue than the NFL club, largely due to the Knights dangling the Dallas relocation threat to Nashville officials.
This is all very preliminary of course, as Thunder ownership have expressed no interest in relocation or sale of the club, and, as you would expect, are saying in no uncertain terms that their financial standing is solid, despite the issues with their initial payment to the stadium project. The as-yet unnamed stadium is still on pace for a March 2015 grand opening for USFL football, but questions of the Thunder’s uncertain liquidity have been serious enough for the USFL to start its own investigation, paralleling legal actions taken by the city of Las Vegas to ensure full funding of the team’s stadium investment.
USFL Offers One More “Best Of” List with Top 5 QB Seasons Ever
Throughout the season the USFL has been releasing on its website some lists of the best seasons in the league’s 30 years. Each has been a great debate starter, but we have been waiting for the big one, the discussion of the greatest QB season in USFL history to arrive. It was finally released this week and it will absolutely be a debate-starter. The league released the names of 5 quarterbacks with one season for each. That in itself is a topic for discussion as players like Brett Favre or Kerry Collins have had multiple top tier seasons, so picking just one can be a debate unto itself. The league wanted to represent different eras, and yet we have a clear cluster of results between 1996 and 2003, a period which many have claimed to be the Golden Age of the USFL passing game. Here are the arguments for all five QB’s and their numbers from the chosen season, so let the arguments begin.
1998 Troy Aikman (TBY)
While there is no debate that Troy Aikman was an outstanding QB throughout his entire career as a Tampa Bay Bandit (1989-2000), it is also undeniable that in 1998 he took himself to an all new level. In this one awe-inspiring season Aikman not only led the Bandits to a title, but put up numbers that were beyond anything he, or nearly any other QB, had ever achieved. Aikman threw for a league record 5,675 yards in that season, along with throwing for another league record 54 touchdowns. His QB Rating jumped up from a previous best of 107.7 to a stellar 130.3. He helped Tampa Bay go 13-3 and had them blow through the USFL playoffs scoring 34 against Baltimore, 48 against the Federals, and a whopping 45 points in Summer Bowl 2012 against the overmatched St. Louis Knights. It was truly a year in which every piece of the puzzle came together for Aikman and the Bandit offense.
2003 Kerry Collins (OHI)
While Troy Aikman’s ’98 season is the stuff of legends, no player had a 3-year run quite like Kerry Collins’s 2001-2003 production. That the league opted to select his first of three seasons, and the only one where the Glory did not win the title, was a difficult call. Statistically Collins’s best year, but one in which the favored Glory were upset 42-40 in the Divisional round seems odd, considering that in 2002 the Glory went unbeaten, 16-0, on their way to the club’s first of two titles. But, while it may be the best team performance in USFL history, the stats for Collins in 2002 were not quite as stellar as in the choice here, his 2001 season. In this year Collins would throw for a career best in yardage. But it is so hard to quantify which of the three years was better as he would have his highest QBR in 2002 (a ridiculous 136.6) and would have 1 more TD toss in the 2003 title defense season than his 51 in 2001. So, what do you do with a player who had such a run over more than one season? Pick when it started seems to be the consensus here.
1999 Brett Favre (BIR)
Another player with a lot of seasons to choose from, Brett Favre had so many 4,000-yard seasons, so many 30 TD seasons, that it is hard to pick just one. Do we go for his breakout season in 1993, when he took the Stallions to a Summer Bowl victory? What about his second act with rival Memphis when he did the same? Nope, the league looked at his entire career and picked 1999 as the pinnacle of Favre’s production. In that season he had career bests in yards with 5,224, also throwing 45 TDs and only 10 picks. He may have had years with better QB Ratings, but he was at the top of his game, a mature leader and nearly unstoppable offensive weapon in 1999.
2001 Heath Shuler (MEM)
Often lost in the discussions of the best USFL quarterbacks of its 30-year history, Heath Shuler may not get the respect of Favre, Collins, or Kelly, but any Memphis Showboat fan worth their salt will be able to tell you how special his 2001 season was. In a career that saw Shuler go over 4,000 yards 5 times, only in 2001 did he cross the 5,000-yard map. With 5,040 yards and 47 TDs in 2001, Shuler absolutely deserves to be recognized in this list. It also was a year when he set a personal best for QBR at 132.1, one of the best ever ratings, thanks in part to his 64.1% completion rate while also throwing for over 5,000 yards.
1996 Jim Kelly (HOU)
The first of the true gunslingers of the USFL, and in the minds of many still the best, Jim Kelly had his highpoint in 1996, his 13th and final season with the Gamblers. Amazing to think that with all of his amazing seasons in the Run & Shoot, he would go out on top after his best season in 1996. In that year Kelly threw for carer bests in yardage (5,417), touchdowns (47) and his lowest pick total of any season, with only 9. That was an incredible 47:9 TD:Int ratio. In that season Kelly led the Gamblers to a division title, then ran roughshod through the playoffs, knocking off Michigan, St. Louis, and the Aikman-led Panthers to take the title in one of the best Summer Bowls ever, a 38-35 shootout that came down to the final seconds. It was a triumphant swan song for one of the league’s earliest stars.
Week 16 always means a special schedule with no Friday games and key matchups set to be at the same time to avoid gamesmanship. So, NBC takes on a Saturday late game as all games are either Saturday or Sunday.
SAT @ 12PM ET New Jersey (11-4) @ Texas (10-5) ABC
Texas needs to win and have Las Vegas lose to win a bye week as the 2nd seed. New Jersey could still win the NE Division if Washington and Philly both fall.
SAT @ 12PM ET Boston (3-12) @ Philadelphia (11-4) FOX
Win and you have homefield for the playoffs. That is Philadelphia’s situation, not one anyone expected when Kurt Warner went down for the season in Week 2.
SAT @ 12PM ET Charlotte (11-4) @ Washington (11-4) FOX
The winner of this game has a real shot at the top seed, assuming Philly loses, which is a lot to assume. For Charlotte a win gives them the SE Division, and a bye week. A loss and it could be Atlanta that jumps up to get the title.
SAT @ 12PM ET Jacksonville (6-9) @ Atlanta (11-4) ABC
The Fire are ecstatic that Charlotte has to finish up with a very ornery Washington squad. If the Feds win that game, Atlanta could claim the SE Division at home against Jacksonville.
SAT @ 4PM ET Oakland (10-5) @ Houston (7-8) FOX
Oakland needs this win to have any shot at the Pacific Crown. Houston needs it to have a shot at the playoffs altogether. That should make for a very hard fought game.
SAT @ 4PM ET Denver (8-7) @ Arizona (6-9) ESPN/EFN
Denver controls their playoff destiny. Win and they are in. Lose and they have to hope that either Baltimore or Oakland come through to help them.
SAT @ 4PM ET Baltimore (8-7) @ Portland (8-7) NBC
Portland was picked to finish last in the Pacific Division. A win this week at home and they are in the playoffs. A very good first year result for Marty Mornhinweg after coming over from Chicago.
SUN @ 12PM ET Seattle (3-12) @ Chicago (6-9) ABC
Nothing on the line in this one except a final goodbye for Seattle Head Coach Marvin Lewis.
SUN @ 12PM ET Orlando (3-12) @ Tampa Bay (8-7) ABC
The Bandits want to finish 9-7, the Renegades just want this season to be over. Expect a lot of backups for both teams in this one.
SUN @ 12PM ET Memphis (4-11) @ Birmingham (5-10) FOX
Two teams that expected better this year. While Cam Newton and Ryan Mallett will start, expect a lot of young players to see some snaps as both teams prep for the offseason.
SUN @ 4PM ET Las Vegas (10-5) @ Los Angeles (6-9) ABC
The result of Oakland’s game on Saturday will determine what Las Vegas does here. If Oakland gets the W, then the Thunder cannot avoid a let down in LA. If the Invaders lose to Houston, then Las Vegas can take a deep breathe, but they still want that 2nd seed and the bye, so a win is still vital for them.
SUN @ 4PM ET St. Louis (12-3) @ Ohio (5-10) FOX
We thought we might see some backups for St. Louis, who already has home field throughout the Western playoffs assured, but they seem to want to get at least 1 quarter of action from their starters, maybe more.
SUN @ 4PM ET Michigan (6-9) @ Pittsburgh (6-9) FOX
We are not sure that reaching 7-9 instead of 6-10 is much motivation for either team. Kirk Cousins will start for Michigan because they need to know if he has potential in case Griese does retire this year. Pittsburgh will continue to test out Andy Dalton despite his struggles in prior games. Could this mean that Cody Pickett is on the trading block?
SUN @ 8PM ET Nashville (8-7) @ New Orleans (8-7) ESPN/EFN
It just would not be Week 16 in the USFL without these two teams facing off with the division title on the line. This year the winner is in and the loser is out. That is what we call motivation. Manning vs. Brees also makes this a great matchup of two very different QB styles.